MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

This is the third installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market and the first base market. Next up, we’ll take a look at second base.

Teams In Need

The Athletics could see Jed Lowrie hit the open market, though there’s been talk of an extension. If he’s not re-signed, the A’s have Franklin Barreto in Triple-A. Similarly, the Rockies could lose DJ LeMahieu but have prospects Brendan Rodgers and Garrett Hampson in the upper minors.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will lose Chase Utley to retirement while Brian Dozier reaches free agency. One of the game’s great curators of depth, the Dodgers organization isn’t hurting for replacement options with Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez and Max Muncy on hand.

The Twins sent Dozier to L.A. and replaced him with Logan Forsythe, who’s also a free agent. Top prospect Nick Gordon could pair with Jorge Polanco up the middle, but Gordon has yet to hit in Triple-A. The Nationals shipped out Daniel Murphy and received little from Wilmer Difo following that swap. The Pirates, too, could be in need if Josh Harrison‘s option is bought out.

It’s possible that the Cardinals could enter the mix for an offensive boost if they decide to move on from Kolten Wong‘s glove-first approach. Perhaps the Angels feel set with David Fletcher, but they may want a more impactful bat. The rebuilding Tigers don’t have an established option but could give prospect Dawel Lugo an audition. And if the Indians can jettison Jason Kipnis‘ contract, they could seek help at the keystone, too (moving Jose Ramirez back to third base).

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: DJ LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler

Lowrie is coming off his best season but has been open about his desire to remain with the A’s. He may never reach the market, and even if he does, Oakland will try to retain him. LeMahieu has carved out a nice spot as a high-average hitter with quality glovework but minimal power. Dozier was the game’s most powerful second baseman by a landslide from 2015-17 but played through a knee injury in 2018 and had his worst full season since 2013. Murphy started slow in his return from knee surgery but hit .322/.358/.502 in his final 293 PAs. Kinsler will be 37 next June, but he’s still an elite defender even as his bat continues to decline.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: Josh Harrison, Logan Forsythe, Daniel Descalso, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Harrison had the worst full season of his career, so the cost-conscious Pirates may simply buy out his option. He can play at least three positions, though, and was a quality regular as recently as 2017. Forsythe’s 2018 season was a nightmare, but he’s spent much of his career giving left-handed pitchers fits. He can play either second or third and hit much better following a July trade to Minnesota. Descalso quietly had his best season at the plate and is capable of playing all over the diamond. He’ll be 32 next season but makes for a potential utility piece. Switch-hitters Cabrera and Walker (.249/.349/.438 from July 1 through season’s end) can still provide some value at the plate, but their defensive abilities are more in question.

Depth: Dixon Machado, Gordon Beckham, Ryan Goins, Eric Sogard, Sean Rodriguez, Brad Miller, Andrew Romine

Trade Targets

Potential Regulars: Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett, Starlin Castro, Kolten Wong, Ketel Marte, Cesar Hernandez, Joe Panik, Jason Kipnis, Devon Travis

The late-blooming Merrifield has established himself as one of baseball’s premier second basemen over the past two seasons. He’s controlled another four years, making him a premium trade chip who could fetch some MLB-ready pieces, as GM Dayton Moore has targeted in other deals. Gennett, too, has broken out over the past two years, though he’s only controlled for one more season. A Cincinnati native, Gennett hopes to stay with the Reds, and the feeling seems mutual. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.7MM through arbitration, but an extension is possible.

Castro (one year, $12MM plus a 2020 option) had another solid season but is somewhat expensive relative to his potentially available peers. Wong (2/$17.25MM plus 2021 option) was one of baseball’s premier defenders in 2018 (19 Defensive Runs Saved, 13.4 Ultimate Zone Rating) but has persistently been in trade rumors for the past couple seasons. Marte, 25 tomorrow, isn’t a star but provided average offense and solid defense in ’18 and comes with cost certainty (4/$19MM remaining plus two club options).

The Phillies are reportedly willing to deal anyone other than Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola, and the 28-year-old Hernandez is a steady hitter controlled through 2020. He’s due a raise in arbitration ($8.9MM projection). Also arb-eligible for two more years ($4.2MM projection for ’19), Panik had a career-worst season and could be a change-of-scenery candidate depending on the views of the new Giants GM.

Cleveland would presumably love to shed the remaining year and $17MM on Kipnis’ deal (he also has an option for 2020) as the organization faces payroll constraints and has numerous holes to fill. Given his .230/.315/.389 slash, though, Kipnis would be tough to move.

It’s worth wondering if the Jays would move on from the injury-prone Travis. He’s controlled for another two seasons ($2.4MM arb projection), but the Jays have alternatives, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the bigs and top prospect Bo Bichette looming.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: Yangervis Solarte, Derek Dietrich, Cory Spangenberg, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Tyler Wade, Alen Hanson, Dilson Herrera

Solarte had an awful first season with the Jays but was a steadily productive player with the Padres, so perhaps a team would dub his $5.5MM option a worthy gamble. Dietrich, a perennial trade candidate like many Marlins, is a solid hitter with no real defensive home. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.8MM in 2019.

The Padres have three potential trade pieces now that top prospect Luis Urias is ready for a big league look. None of Spangenberg, Asuaje or Pirela hit in the Majors in 2018, though. Asuaje is the youngest of the bunch and has another five seasons of control, perhaps making him the most desirable. It’s a similar tale for Wade with the Yankees; the 24-year-old has hit in Triple-A but is a ways down the depth chart and has yet to produce in the Majors.

Hanson and Herrera are former Top 100 prospects who’ve yet to perform in the Majors. Hanson did show surprising pop against righties with the Giants, but his lack of plate discipline held him to a .275 OBP. Herrera returned from shoulder woes with a strong Triple-A season, but he didn’t hit in 97 MLB plate appearances down the stretch and would be blocked if the Reds extend Gennett.

This is the second installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market. Today, we’ll turn to the first base position.

Teams In Need

Quite a few organizations went without regulars at the first base position in 2018, seemingly content with timeshare situations. That could again be the case, though it’s also possible that a few tantalizing trade targets might lead to a re-thinking on the part of some clubs.

Among likely contenders, only the Rockies jump off the page with an opening — assuming, at least, that they will move Ian Desmond to an outfield or utility role of some kind. Teams like the Mariners and Twins could arguably stand to add at the position, but also might address it by shuffling existing players.

Of course, others could free up space if they see an opportunity to improve. The Yankees, for instance, will have to decide how much they wish to rely upon Luke Voit (while also considering how their DH and catching situations will play out). The Red Sox, Nationals, and Angels are among the clubs that’ll at least be looking for complementary pieces capable of spending some time in the first base mix.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Frankly, there don’t appear to be any in this group — making the trade candidates listed below all the more tantalizing.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Steve Pearce has hit a ton in 2018 and deserves a significant role, though he has long been dogged by heath questions. Mark Reynolds proved he can still do damage, while Hanley Ramirez is a wild card. On the left side of the plate, a trio of veterans returns to the open market. Matt Adams collapsed down the stretch but was productive earlier in the year; Lucas Duda did the opposite; Logan Morrison will be looking for a bounceback chance after an injury-plagued campaign. It seems unlikely that Joe Mauer will play anywhere other than Minnesota, but perhaps that can’t be ruled out entirely.

Depth: Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Danny Valencia

Trade Targets

Likely Regulars: The most intriguing name that could be on the market has to be Paul Goldschmidt (1/$14.5MM). It stands to reason that the D-Backs will put him on the block early, seeing whether offers reach a sufficient level to make a move. Another player entering his final year of team control, Jose Abreu of the White Sox ($16MM projected), is perhaps still as much an extension as a trade candidate. Switch-hitter Justin Smoak sustained the better part of his 2017 outbreak this year and will earn a reasonable $8MM in the final season of his contract (his club option value was boosted by escalators). Trading him could offer the Blue Jays a chance to pick up some young talent while clearing the deck for existing young players to get some chances at the MLB level.

There are also some larger contracts worth considering. Wil Myers arguably doesn’t fit the roster puzzle for the Padres, though his deal (4/$64MM plus option) is just about to ramp up in cost. Though the Giants’ remaining obligations to Brandon Belt (3/$48MM) outstrip his present value — particularly after another season in which he missed time and didn’t hit to his typical levels — he’d still represent an interesting target for some clubs, potentially opening the door to some off-the-wall trade concepts. Speaking of which, the Phillies could seek to bail on Carlos Santana (2/$35MM plus option), depending upon how untold other possibilities play out, though they likely won’t find a terribly receptive market. And while an offseason trade remains hard to fathom, it’s still worth remembering that the Tigers could try to move some of their remaining obligations to Miguel Cabrera (5/$162MM plus options) at some point.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Despite a strong year at the plate and still-palatable salary, C.J. Cron ($5.2MM projected) seems not to be in the Rays’ plans following the acquisition of Ji-Man Choi. Jose Martinez of the Cardinals (pre-arb) is another quality righty bat that might hold appeal, though his struggles to handle first base defensively may make him a DH-only target.

Teams considering lefty sluggers could take a look at the Phillies’ Justin Bour ($5.2MM projected) or Brewers’ Eric Thames (1/$7MM plus option), depending upon how those organizations proceed. Greg Bird of the Yankees ($1.5MM projected), Dominic Smith of the Mets (pre-arb), and AJ Reed of the Astros (pre-arb) could represent upside plays for the right team if their current orgs decide it’s time to move on.

As we enjoy the postseason festivities, it’s an opportune time to prepare for the coming wheeling and dealing of the winter. We always take an in-depth look at every team’s situation and also focus in on the major free agents. To get things rolling, though, we’ll also add a new angle with this market snapshot series.

Whether analyzing things from the perspective of a given team looking to address a certain position or from a player hoping to find a fit, the broader market context is a key consideration. Accordingly, we’ll use this series to get a general sense of the market setting at each position.

Teams In Need

Quite a few organizations will be interested in finding new options to take the lion’s share of the time behind the dish. The Angels, Astros, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rays all plainly lack clear-cut, number-one options behind the dish and could be interested in significant upgrades.

Other teams could mostly roll with what’s already on hand but will likely at least dabble in the market for regulars. The Braves, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Rockies could justifiably go after top backstops, for instance, and are also among the teams that will be eyeing part-time contributors.

Meanwhile, the Yankees‘ views on Gary Sanchez could represent a major wild card in the development of the market. And, of course, catching depth is always valued even for clubs whose MLB roster spots are already mostly accounted for.

Free Agents

This class certainly isn’t exactly loaded with stars, but that’s never really the case at the catching position. It does appear to have two clear regulars on offer, along with a variety of other backstops who might be entrusted with significant playing time again in 2019.

Likely Regulars:

Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos have each hit quite well this year, but the former has the edge in framing and health. Both should secure strong, multi-year deals.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options:

Kurt Suzuki and Martin Maldonado are arguably the top options here, the former owing to his solid bat and the latter to his well-regarded defensive work. A few former everyday receivers — Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, and Matt Wieters — seem likely to be forced into lesser roles. Otherwise, A.J. Ellis, Nick Hundley, and Devin Mesoraco turned in solid campaigns this year.

Depth: Drew Butera, Chris Gimenez, Bryan Holaday, Jeff Mathis, Rene Rivera, Bobby Wilson

Trade Targets

It’s tough to know just how many of these players will truly be made available — at least, at a palatable price. And the market could feature some other names as well, particularly if a player is freed up to be moved based on other maneuvering.

Likely Regulars:

With two more seasons of arbitration control remaining, and coming off of a huge campaign, J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins ought to be pursued by a variety of contenders. Francisco Cervelli (Pirates, 1/$11.5MM) had an outstanding year and could be on the block if the Bucs see a chance to achieve an intriguing return and fill in with cheaper pieces. There’s no indication the Royals will deal Salvador Perez (3/$36MM), but he’ll surely be asked about.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options:

Some might argue that Robinson Chirinos (Rangers, 1/$2.375MM) did enough in 2018 to be viewed as a regular, but the guess here is that he’d be valued as a primary but not everyday type catcher who has an attractive contract. He might also be an extension target. Both Welington Castillo (White Sox, 1/$7.75MM + option) and Russell Martin (Blue Jays, 1/$20MM) could be moved to save at least some of the remaining cash owed and to clear the way for younger options on both rosters. It’s plenty imaginable that the Red Sox will do some trimming, with three catchers (Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez, and Blake Swihart) on hand.