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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Mark Polishuk | at October 18, 2018 8:35am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks followed up their surprise run to the NLDS in 2017 by leading the way in the NL West for much of 2018, though an ugly late-season fade (11-24 over their last 35 games) left them with just an 82-80 record. Now, with the D’Backs facing an already-tight payroll situation and the likely departure of some major free agents, the team could appears to be at a crossroads.

Guaranteed Contracts

Zack Greinke, SP: $95.5MM through 2021
Ketel Marte, 2B: $20MM through 2022 (includes buyouts of 2023-24 club options)
Alex Avila, C: $4.25MM through 2019
Jarrod Dyson, OF: $3.5MM through 2019
Yoshihisa Hirano, RP: $3MM through 2019

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

David Peralta – $7.7MM
Robbie Ray – $6.1MM
Shelby Miller – $4.9MM
Brad Boxberger – $4.9MM
Taijuan Walker – $4.825MM
Jake Lamb – $4.7MM
Steven Souza Jr. – $4.0MM
Chris Owings – $3.6MM
Nick Ahmed – $3.1MM
Archie Bradley – $2.0MM
Andrew Chafin – $1.8MM
T.J. McFarland – $1.4MM
Matt Andriese – $1.1MM
John Ryan Murphy – $1.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Miller, Boxberger, Owings, Murphy

Contract Options

Yasmany Tomas, OF: $32.5MM player option for the 2019-20 seasons ($15.MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $14.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout)

Free Agents

Patrick Corbin, A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Descalso, Jeff Mathis, Jon Jay, Randall Delgado, Jake Diekman, Chris Stewart, Brad Ziegler (retiring)

[Diamondbacks Offseason Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

The D’Backs spent a club-record $131.56MM on payroll last season, and they’d approach that figure again in 2019 on returning salaries and arbitration numbers alone. Since Paul Goldschmidt’s club option and Yasmany Tomas’s player option are both virtual locks to be exercised, there’ll be roughly $77.4MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year’s payroll. The Snakes will have to decide whether to dole out a projected $51.125MM owed to a whopping 14-player arbitration class.

Keeping all those players would put Arizona over the $128MM mark, leaving the team ill-equipped to re-sign their two biggest free agents. Patrick Corbin will be one of the most highly sought-after players on the open market this winter, while A.J. Pollock also projects for a solid multi-year deal, even if he has battled injuries over the last few seasons. Finding suitable replacements at a palatable salary level would likely mean giving up precious young talent in trade.

Whether or not the Snakes view themselves as near-term contenders, then, some paring of arb-eligible players seems likely. Judicious non-tendering might just create enough room to retain a second-tier option like Clay Buchholz or Eduardo Escobar. For instance, $9.6MM could be saved by parting ways with Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, and John Ryan Murphy. It’s possible the D’Backs could be forced to sell low by trading notable arb-eligibles like Jake Lamb, Steven Souza Jr., or Brad Boxberger. All three players are in that unwelcome gray area of perhaps being too valuable to non-tender, yet lacking in trade value in the wake of disappointing seasons. Lamb and Souza at least come with future control rights via arbitration, increasing their value to Arizona. In the case of Boxberger, who struggled down the stretch and is entering his walk year, it could be that he’ll be dangled in trades in advance of the non-tender deadline.

Suffice to say, the Diamondbacks are in a tight spot, and GM Mike Hazen may now be facing the rebuild that many pundits expected to come when he was first hired two years ago. The general manager has already said that the team will first look to make some trades, and try to “be creative” when it comes to formulating next year’s roster. While a full teardown doesn’t appear to be in the cards just yet, some reshuffling of the deck, at a minimum, seems likely.

Let’s break down the two choices facing the Diamondbacks, beginning with the straight-forward total rebuild option. In this scenario, you’d see the team shop virtually all of their most valued short-term assets (i.e. Goldschmidt, Robbie Ray, David Peralta, Archie Bradley and more) in order to add some much-needed depth to a farm system whose best prospects may be a few years away. Trading Greinke would be the most obvious way to alleviate the payroll crunch, though his contact is so hefty that the D’Backs might still need to eat some money to facilitate a trade, despite Greinke pitching like one of baseball’s best starters over the last two years. On the other hand, it’s arguable he isn’t owed that much more than he’d be worth in free agency. Some clubs may prefer that three-year pact to a bidding war for Corbin or Clayton Kershaw.

Given the number of quality players on the roster, the D’Backs could shave a lot of financial obligations and also recoup enough big league-ready young talent to hope to return to contention as early as 2021. The Diamondbacks’ solid roster, however, is also the reason why a “creative” solution might be more palatable to Hazen and company than entering into a full rebuild this offseason. An argument can certainly be made that the Snakes could aim to contend next season while they still have Goldschmidt — who could also still be an offseason extension target — and then pivot to becoming sellers at the trade deadline if things don’t work out. In that case, the club would be prepared to start the rebuild next winter by selling off the players who are still controlled through 2020 (such as Ray, Peralta, Souza, and Taijuan Walker, assuming Walker recovers well from Tommy John surgery).

The alternative to a sell-off, then, would be strategically carving out some payroll space while still aiming to compete next season. There are no shortage of possibilities about how the Diamondbacks could try to do this, though obviously it’d be a difficult proposition to truly stay competitive without creating further long-term problems. It also doesn’t help matters that the D’Backs don’t have a ton of MLB-ready youngsters capable of stepping into spots left open by traded players — the likes of Ildemaro Vargas, Kevin Cron, or Kevin Medrano will probably be on the big league roster at some point in 2019, though can’t be expected to be play regular roles on a contender.

Speculation has already begun about a potential Goldschmidt trade, and there’s no shortage of pain in trading away a face-of-the-franchise player who has hit at a borderline Cooperstown-level pace for virtually his entire career. As painful as it would be to deal the star first baseman, however, it would also be the most boldly pragmatic move Hazen could make. Goldschmidt is only controlled through 2019, he’d net easily the biggest trade return of any veteran asset on the roster, and there are several other first base options available in trades or in free agency who could at least partially replicate Goldschmidt’s production. This is just my speculation, but if the D’Backs can find a trade partner with enough payroll space, they could move both Goldschmidt and Tomas in the same deal, taking a fairly light prospect return for the sake of getting Tomas’s albatross contract off the books. This would create a ton of additional payroll flexibility, though the team would have to have a clear strategy in mind to reinvest the money wisely — not only to boost the 2019 outlook but also to avoid unwanted long-term obligations.

It’d be an awfully bold strategy, to be sure, but moving Goldschmidt could help Arizona address several other holes around the roster. Center field is the most obvious area with Pollock’s likely departure, as Jarrod Dyson is more suited as bench depth than as a viable everyday option. The D’Backs are also hoping that Souza and Lamb can rebound from injury-shortened seasons so that right field and third base can be solidified, though I’d expect the team to pursue some type of right-handed hitting utility infield depth anyway to account for Lamb’s struggles against southpaws. Re-signing Daniel Descalso would be a boost, as Descalso was a valuable asset filling in for Lamb at the hot corner last year, and also sharing time with Ketel Marte at second base.

Arizona has been only a modest player in free agency during Hazen’s regime, so even re-signing a player like Escobar would require a bigger dive into the open market than the club has been willing to make for the last two offseasons. The 29-year-old will merit a solid multi-year commitment as he comes off the best season of his career, though it wouldn’t be a bank-breaking price tag, and Escobar does offer more versatility as a switch-hitter and a player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions. Even if the D’Backs did prefer to utilize Escobar primarily as a third baseman again, he could represent enough of an upgrade over Lamb that the team could take the plunge.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Arizona will hope that Marte can continue to progress at the plate after posting a career-best 104 wRC+ in 2018. Defensive standout Nick Ahmed will likely remain as the everyday shortstop, and the D’Backs will probably try to take another glove-first approach at catcher, as the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan recently argued that Jeff Mathis was the best positional fit of any of the team’s free agents. Mathis and Alex Avila were by some measures baseball’s best defensive tandem behind the plate, though if the veteran Mathis can’t be re-signed, the D’Backs could look into adding a catcher with a bit more offensive pop.

Dyson brings enough pluses as a defender and baserunner that the Diamondbacks could use him as the left-handed hitting half of a center field platoon, which would leave Arizona only looking for a righty bat to share time (a free agent like Cameron Maybin would be a good fit in this scenario). Alternatively, Peralta could be moved into center field, though Peralta probably projects best as a corner outfielder. The D’Backs might also not want shift Peralta again since, after being installed as the everyday left fielder last season, he delivered the best year of his career, hitting .293/.352/.516 with 30 homers over 614 PA.

Peralta and Ray are the Diamondbacks’ top trade chips if they balk at dealing Goldschmidt, or if Greinke’s contract prevents them from finding a trade partner. These two are less likely to be dealt, in my opinion, since losing either would drastically weaken a position that is already taking a hit. Losing both Pollock and Peralta would be a huge blow to the outfield, while the rotation would suffer from losing Ray when Corbin and Buchholz could depart.

Greinke, Ray, and Zack Godley are the only sure bets in the rotation as things stand, with Miller (if he isn’t non-tendered), Matt Koch, and Matt Andriese looking like the top candidates for the final two spots. Walker will also hopefully re-enter the picture at midseason upon his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is Triple-A depth, and top prospects Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could also be ready later in the season.

There’s certainly room here for Buchholz to return, as the veteran proved to be one of the year’s best minor league signings. Health is always a question with Buchholz, and his season was prematurely ended by a flexor mass strain in his throwing elbow, though this latest injury could actually work in Arizona’s favor if the team wanted to retain him. Buchholz’s asking price could fall into a palatable range for the Diamondbacks if other teams are scared off by the elbow problem, and the D’Backs certainly are the most familiar of anyone with Buchholz’s health status. If Buchholz doesn’t return, the Snakes could look at other low-cost veteran arms to compete for a starting job, or consider using the bullpen and a Rays-style “opener” to address a rotation spot.

Speaking of the pen, the closer’s job is up for grabs after Boxberger’s struggles at limiting walks and homers cost him the role down the stretch. It’s possible the Diamondbacks could forego a full-time closer altogether, as they adopted a committee approach in September upon removing Boxberger from the job, though I would guess they might bring in an inexpensive veteran reliever with closing experience to provide added depth. Names like Sergio Romo or former D’Back Fernando Rodney might be fits in this regard on the free agent market. Arizona could also stand to add a bit of extra left-handed depth, though the team already has an overall solid group of relievers.

As per Hazen, the Diamondbacks have several organizational meetings planned in the coming weeks, and if the club will indeed gauge the trade market first, we may have to wait until the Winter Meetings in December before we get a true sense of the Snakes’ approach for the offseason. Whether the D’Backs become baseball’s most popular seller or instead attempt to perform a tough balancing act, Arizona is poised to have a fascinating offseason of potentially pivotal importance to the franchise’s outlook.

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2018-19 Offseason Outlook Arizona Diamondbacks MLBTR Originals

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Center Field

By Jeff Todd | at October 17, 2018 11:56pm CDT

This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. After checking on corner outfield options earlier tonight, we’ll look up the middle.

Teams In Need

Unless they move Dee Gordon back to the outfield, the Mariners have a hole. While the Giants have hopes for Steven Duggar, they’ll surely be on the lookout for other options this winter. Just what kind of player they’ll be interested in will depend upon who they hire to run their baseball ops department and what direction they take.

It’s arguable that several other NL West clubs should be looking up the middle, too. The Rockies could certainly stand to bump Charlie Blackmon to a corner spot, while the Diamondbacks will be looking for new blood. With Arizona potentially taking a rebuilding approach, of course, a big expenditure would seem unlikely.

While the position isn’t an area of need for the Phillies, all bets are off in Philadelphia. Just how much of a need there’ll be for the Indians isn’t known, though it’ll be hard for the team to count on a return from Leonys Martin. The Athletics were fairly unsettled up the middle, but perhaps saw enough in Ramon Laureano to more or less turn the job over to him for a full run. Perhaps there are some scenarios where the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, or Astros decide to shift around some pieces and pursue a center fielder, though that’d seemingly be dependent upon opportunity rather than need.

Whether the Reds believe they’re ready to begin winning could help decide their moves in center. An upgrade would certainly be in order if the organization wants to ramp up toward contention. Otherwise, the Rangers and White Sox aren’t settled in center and could potentially be opportunistic buyers. The Royals and Marlins are less likely to spend, and have some youthful players to try out, but also don’t have clear solutions on hand.

Free Agents

While this class doesn’t have any stars, it features at least one quality regular option in A.J. Pollock. While his durability remains a question, and he failed to sustain a hot start over the course of 2018, Pollock figures to command a strong, multi-year commitment.

Despite a middling 2018 season, sturdy veteran Brett Gardner is probably the best alternative. If his option isn’t picked up and traded, he’ll bring his typically steady lefty bat to the free agent market.

Otherwise, the market contains timeshare options at most. Players like Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, and Chris Young likely won’t be considered as even semi-regular options up the middle. Though all have spent significant time as everyday options in center over the years, none has shown the ability to do so productively of late. Indeed, it’s debatable whether any but Jay, Maybin, and perhaps Gomez will really be seen as realistic options to take the field in center after the defensive showings made in 2018.

Depth Options: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Shane Robinson, Jake Smolinski, Matt Szczur, Eric Young Jr.

Trade Targets

Potential Regulars: It’s tough to know what the Rays are thinking, but Kevin Kiermaier is the only player they are locked into contractually. Given that he’s coming off of a subpar season, though, perhaps it’s likelier they’ll hold for the time being and hope he bounces back. The Blue Jays could consider dangling Kevin Pillar. Perhaps most plausibly of all, the Phillies could decide it’s time to move on from the enigmatic Odubel Herrera, who’d be of interest elsewhere.

Platoon/Bounceback Options: Keon Broxton may well be on the move given the Brewers’ outfield logjam. In a similar situation, the Nationals could hang on to Michael Taylor as a reserve, but it’s also possible they’ve seen enough. Taylor has plenty of glove and runs well but remains an inconsistent performer at the plate. That description is true in an even more extreme form with regard to Billy Hamilton of the Reds, a fascinating player who is miscast as an everyday piece. The Yankees and Cardinals would surely like to find takers for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler, respectively, but it’s tough to either player moving except perhaps in some kind of bad contract swap.

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MLBTR Originals Market Snapshot

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Corner Outfield

By Steve Adams | at October 17, 2018 7:14pm CDT

This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we move the discussion to the outfield grass.

Teams In Need

A number of contenders and 2019 hopefuls will lose quality corner outfielders to free agency this season, including the Nationals (Bryce Harper), Braves (Nick Markakis), Indians (Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall), Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra) and perhaps the Mariners (Denard Span). The Yankees are set to lose Andrew McCutchen and could potentially bid adieu to outfield stalwart Brett Gardner, though the organization has ample outfield depth to withstand those subtractions. The A’s rode a patchwork corner outfield mix to the postseason and could look at adding a more established upgrade.

Meanwhile, a number of clubs coming off disappointing 2018 campaigns will look to reload and try again in 2018, with the Giants, Pirates, Cardinals and Phillies among the teams that could look to add a corner outfield bat with hopes of contending in 2019. St. Louis, in particular, could be in the market for a left-handed-hitting right fielder based on president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s recent comments. The Pirates, meanwhile, traded away Austin Meadows and have since lost Gregory Polanco into next summer following shoulder surgery. The Phillies are open to trading virtually anyone on the roster, so changes in the outfield are easy to imagine. How the Giants operate won’t be known until a new GM is in place, but their outfield mix leaves plenty to be desired regardless.

There are even several non-contenders who’ll simply need a veteran bat to plug in as a stopgap or an upside play; the White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Marlins and Orioles may simply want a low-cost veteran to join their rebuilding efforts.

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: Harper joins Manny Machado as a rare, star-caliber, 26-year-old free agent and will be a highly sought-after target by the market’s biggest spenders. The Nationals will surely at least consider a bid to retain him, but teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Giants will all be connected to Harper to varying extents. The Cardinals, too, could be in play for him, though they’ve never spent at that level in the past.

Teams that can’t afford Harper or don’t wish to commit a likely precedent-setting contract to the former NL MVP will still have plenty of options from which to choose. Michael Brantley rebounded from a pair of injury-plagued seasons to remind teams that he’s among the game’s best pure hitters (.309/.364/.468 with a 9.5 percent strikeout rate). Andrew McCutchen’s overall numbers in San Francisco didn’t stand out, but his output was suppressed by the cavernous AT&T Park. Beyond that, he posted excellent hard-contact numbers, giving some hope for better days ahead, and turned things on during his late-season run with the Yanks. Nick Markakis got off to a blistering start in 2018 before settling to hit like the Nick Markakis one would expect over the final five months of the year. He’s still a useful semi-regular even if he couldn’t maintain his torrid April. A.J. Pollock would provide quality glovework and a solid bat in a corner, but most teams probably prefer to install him in center — at least for the first couple seasons of a surefire multi-year deal.

Brett Gardner would bring another quality glove to the corner market if the Yankees buy out his option, though he could also be a trade candidate. Denard Span showed he can still hit in 2018 and even hit lefties well, but there are questions about his glove. Adam Jones has fallen well shy of his former star-level production in recent seasons, but his track record could earn him significant at-bats even if his OBP woes and defensive question marks are more significant than ever.

Could Marwin Gonzalez fit into this bucket, too? Houston’s Swiss army knife can play all over the diamond, and while he’s more of an infielder, he has plenty of left field experience and could hold down the fort as a stopgap before moving to an infield spot or a super utility role down the line.

Platoon/Bench Bats: Some players, such as Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra, aren’t that far removed from being quality regulars but seem more likely to find themselves in limited roles next year. Jon Jay has emerged as something of a fourth outfielder extraordinaire in recent seasons, logging significant at-bats without a set role. The venerable Curtis Granderson can still hit righties, and perhaps that’s true of Matt Joyce as well, though injuries wrecked his 2018. Melky Cabrera showed he can still hit a bit, but doesn’t have much to offer in the field. Cameron Maybin had somewhat of the opposite issue. It’s also not impossible that someone gives Jose Bautista another look, though he’s more of a minor league deal candidate.

Depth: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Brandon Guyer, Austin Jackson, Hunter Pence, JB Shuck, Matt Szczur, Chris Young

Trade Candidates

Corey Dickerson‘s projected $8.4MM arbitration price tag might be a bit steep for the Pirates, especially considering his pedestrian second half of the season. He’s only controlled for one more year and didn’t have much value in last year’s trade market, though. As noted above, perhaps the Yankees will dangle Gardner ($12.5MM club option), given the depth they have surrounding him.

Arizona’s David Peralta is another productive but at least relatively expensive corner option who could hit the market. With a $7.7MM arb projection and two years of club control left for a D-backs team that’ll have to take a hard look at some degree of rebuild this winter, Peralta is a logical piece to market — especially considering his career year in 2018.

Kyle Schwarber‘s name, at this point, feels to be a perennial fixture on the rumor circuit, and while his improved defense in 2018 makes him a better fit for the Cubs (and the NL in general), it also makes him more appealing to other clubs.

The Tigers have reportedly tried to extend Nicholas Castellanos on multiple occasions without success. He only has one year of club control remaining, so perhaps if they can’t work something out this time around they’ll more seriously consider moving him. His glovework is arguably the worst in baseball, but Castellanos can rake at the plate. Sticking in the AL Central, the ChiSox may have to sell low on Avisail Garcia, whose injury woes and dreadful 2018 season make him a non-tender candidate at this point.

Meanwhile, the Padres have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Wil Myers is best suited there or at first base but has been pushed to third by Eric Hosmer‘s presence at first base and a bevy of other outfield options, including Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski. It’d be more surprising if the Friars didn’t move an outfielder than if they did.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels has been candid about the possibility of moving a left-handed-hitting outfielder, with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Drew Robinson all fitting that bill. There’s a logjam in Philly, too, where the Phils could look to move any of Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr as they remake their lineup.

Similarly, the Brewers won’t have the luxury of stashing Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana in the minors in 2019, as both are out of options. Either or both could be shopped to other clubs, and the same is true of Eric Thames, who been squeezed out a bit by last offseason’s additions and the emergence of Jesus Aguilar. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cards will very likely be open to moving Jose Martinez, though his defense grades out terribly.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler round out this section as albatross contracts their current clubs would jump at the chance to jettison, but it’s hard to see any team taking on that level of overpay. Fowler is owed $49.5MM through 2021, while Ellsbury is owed nearly the same sum ($47.28MM) through the end of the 2020 season.

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MLBTR Originals Market Snapshot

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Third Base

By Jeff Todd | at October 16, 2018 12:28pm CDT

This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we’ll round out the infield by taking stock of the situation at the hot corner.

Teams In Need

There aren’t many committed contenders with glaring holes at third base, which is rather interesting given the number of quality options on the open market this year. Of course, there are still quite a few teams that can and arguably should pursue upgrades at the hot corner.

It seems reasonable to expect the 2019 season to feature another shoot-out between the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East. Both have talented young players at third, in Miguel Andujar and Rafael Devers, but have at various points faced questions regarding their commitment to those options. Somewhat similarly, the Braves and Phillies could perhaps justifiably rely on existing players (Johan Camargo/Austin Riley and Maikel Franco/J.P. Crawford) but surely also like the idea of improving.

The central divisions have several potential destinations to watch. The White Sox are an interesting opportunistic buyer, while the ALC-rival Indians could choose to utilize star infielder Jose Ramirez at second or third base, putting them in play here as well. It’s not clear what the Twins will do with Miguel Sano, but it’s certainly possible they’ll prefer to have another player at third base. On the NL side, it’s arguable that the Cardinals ought to be looking at the hot corner as a place to improve, though the organization still has alternatives on hand and may not wish to commit for too long a stretch with a slate of intriguing prospects nearing the majors. Meanwhile, the Pirates will at least need a platoon partner for Colin Moran, while the Brewers were comfortable moving Travis Shaw off of third base this year and could conceivably do so again over the longer haul.

Several other organizations could be looking to add as well, though none figure to be big spenders. The Padres are in a bit of an odd spot. There’s a slate of internal possibilities — including some top prospects nearing the majors and still-wandering defender Wil Myers — but it’s also possible to imagine scenarios where they seek a gap-filler or even pursue a significant player. The Diamondbacks, depending upon their approach to the winter and the health of Jake Lamb, could be a factor. Meanwhile, the Royals, Orioles, and Marlins aren’t committed to anyone at the position — Brian Anderson is a factor at the hot corner and the corner outfield for Miami — but also won’t be prioritizing near-term performance.

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: Manny Machado is easily the top asset in this class — if, that is, he’s really willing to consider signing as a third baseman as opposed to insisting on playing shortstop. Still, it’s arguable that Josh Donaldson is an even more interesting player to watch. The former star is entering his age-33 season on the heels of an injury-plagued campaign, but showed flashes of his former brilliance in a late-season run with the Indians (.280/.400/.520 in 60 plate appearances) before a disappointing-but-brief postseason showing.

Mike Moustakas represents a solid option for those teams looking to plug in a steady piece at the hot corner — and willing to overlook his well-established OBP limitations. Organizations with greater interest in moving players around, however, may look elsewhere. Eduardo Escobar and Marwin Gonzalez are not substantially younger than Moustakas, and aren’t quite the power threats, but also have much more experience at other spots around the infield. They are also both switch-hitters. Either player could conceivably end up seeing significant action at a given position, perhaps third base, or moving around the field.

A few other veterans also represent quite notable factors on the market, though it’s somewhat difficult to tab any as clear options for everyday duties at third. Adrian Beltre is generally seen as being likely either to re-up with the Rangers or retire, but he’d be an interesting target for some clubs if he decides to test the market. Meanwhile, Asdrubal Cabrera and especially Jed Lowrie have legitimate cases to continue receiving consistent playing time, though it’s not yet clear whether teams will view them as regulars at one position — in Lowrie’s case, especially, second base seems likelier than third — or more as heavily-used utility pieces.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: David Freese has hit enough that the Dodgers will need to seriously consider his $6MM option. Otherwise, he’ll be a popular veteran target. Josh Harrison will also draw interest in the likely event that his own option is declined; though he’s more of a utility option at this point, his ability to play third will increase his appeal. Several other bounceback candidates — Logan Forsythe, Jung-ho Kang, Sean Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval and Luis Valbuena — will be available.

Depth Options: Ryan Flaherty, Chase Headley, Jose Reyes, Andrew Romine, Danny Valencia

Trade Targets

Nobody would draw more rental interest than Nolan Arenado, who has drawn at least some speculation as a target, but there’s no real reason to think the Rockies will be willing to listen after a season in which they reached the postseason. He’s likely the only star player who’s even a hypothetical trade piece, and perhaps the only true regular as well.

It could be that the Rangers will listen on Joey Gallo or Jurickson Profar, though both have graded better defensively at other positions and have rather clear paths to significant playing time in Texas. Neither seems likely to be targeted as an everyday option at the hot corner elsewhere. The aforementioned Franco is a possible buy-low candidate if the Phillies go in a different direction, while there are some clubs that might consider utilizing Sano at the hot corner if the Twins decide to cut bait. If they move, this pair will likely hold the most interest for rebuilding teams that can take a chance on the upside.

Otherwise, conceivable part-time trade candidates include Derek Dietrich and Martin Prado of the Marlins, Eduardo Nunez of the Red Sox (assuming he picks up his club option), Yolmer Sanchez of the White Sox, Jedd Gyorko of the Cardinals, Yangervis Solarte of the Blue Jays, and Tommy La Stella of the Cubs.

More interesting trade possibilities could certainly also open up once the free agent market begins to resolve itself. Contenders that choose to invest in high-end veterans, after all, may find themselves with quality younger players that can be utilized as assets to acquire other pieces.

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MLBTR Originals Market Snapshot

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By Mark Polishuk | at October 15, 2018 8:07pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

In one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory, the Rays overhauled their roster, rid themselves of virtually all major financial commitments, experimented with a new way of how to view a “starting pitcher”…and were all the better on the field for it. The Rays shocked baseball with a 90-win season, defying the preseason belief in some quarters that they’d be one of the league’s worst teams. Instead, Tampa will now look to augment an already-talented core group with a few more pieces that can get the club back into the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $44MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Jesus Sucre — $1.2MM
Vidal Nuno — $900K
C.J. Cron — $5.2MM
Matt Duffy — $2.6MM
Tommy Pham — $4MM
Chaz Roe — $1.4MM
Non-tender candidates: Nuno, Sucre, Cron

Free Agents

Sergio Romo, Carlos Gomez

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

After going into fire-sale mode last winter, the Rays continued to unload veteran names throughout the 2018 season, ultimately sending Alex Colome, Denard Span, Brad Miller, Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Chris Archer out of town in a series of trades. It was the Archer deal, completed on deadline day, that really seemed to mark an end of an era in Rays baseball, as Tampa finally dealt its long-time top starter and firmly looked ahead to the future.

One could hardly have guessed, however, that the “future” would come so soon. Tampa’s 54-53 record on July 31 was already enough of a surprise for a team widely predicted to be a non-contender, yet the Rays went into overdrive over the final two months, posting a 36-19 mark in August and September that allowed the team to reach the 90-win plateau for just the sixth time in franchise history.

Almost all of the core group that contributed to that late-season hot streak will be returning in 2019. Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Jake Bauers currently project as the starting infield, with Daniel Robertson and Brandon Lowe providing utility depth. Robertson (who was hampered by injuries last year) could very well push Duffy or Adames for regular duty at third base or shortstop, while prospects Christian Arroyo and Nathaniel Lowe could be in the mix for playing time. Wendle’s breakout year as a super-utility weapon can also put him and Lowe in the corner outfield mix, as they’ll join Austin Meadows as the backup choices behind Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith.

Of course, recently-extended skipper Kevin Cash will have plenty of opportunity to mix and match in search of favorable match-ups. And it seems likely that the front office braintrust, led by GM Erik Neander and senior baseball ops VP Chaim Bloom, isn’t quite done tinkering with this mix. Just how they’ll approach the offseason isn’t easy to guess from the outside, but it stands to reason they’ll both target some areas of need and explore opportunities to achieve value.

One area that seems ripe for some change is the catching position. Michael Perez has the inside track on at least a share of the regular role behind the dish, though the team is likely to acquire a veteran to compete with Nick Ciuffo for the right to work as Perez’s platoon partner or backup. A right-handed hitting catcher could be a better fit, as both Perez and Ciuffo hit from the left side.

The Tampa Bay brass will have some decisions to make at first base. Ji-Man Choi exploded after joining the Rays in a minor midseason deal with Milwaukee, posting an .877 OPS over 189 plate appearances in a Tampa Bay uniform. While Choi has played first base and left field in his brief MLB career, the Rays used him almost exclusively as a designated hitter and against right-handed pitching, so there’s room on the bench for another first-base capable righty bat to spell either Choi or Bauers. It’s possible Tampa could simply rotate its internal options through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh, or further take advantage of the versatility offered by Wendle or Robertson by giving either the occasional start at first base.

The other option would be to pursue a relatively low-cost first baseman in free agency or on the trade market, or simply to retain C.J. Cron in arbitration. Though Cron hit .253/.323/.493 with a career-high 30 homers over 560 PA last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, suggested that Cron will probably be dealt or even non-tendered. It could be that Cron’s somewhat one-dimensional offensive game and ability to only play one position make him an odd fit on a club that ended up prioritizing lineup flexibility and almost eschewing power (27th of 30 teams in home runs) to create a more diverse offense based around contact hitting, speed, and reaching base. (While Choi has many of the same limitations as Cron, Choi is also a pre-arb player with five years of team control.)

There’s also the fact that Cron’s projected arbitration salary is $5.2MM, so the Rays may believe they can find similar production in a power-heavy league for a lower price. Depending on how the rest of the first base market shakes out, Tampa Bay could also non-tender Cron and then try to re-sign him for less money. This may seem like a tough fate for Cron in the wake of a 30-homer, 122 wRC+ season, but as we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams simply haven’t been willing to pay much for non-elite first base/DH bats.

After unloading so many of their more expensive players who were already under contract or in line for higher arbitration numbers, this will be the first offseason in a while where payroll isn’t necessarily of the utmost concern for the Rays front office. Kiermaier is the only player guaranteed money in 2019 and beyond, putting the Rays on pace for a 2019 payroll not even half the size of their $76.39MM payroll from Opening Day 2018. This “allows greater flexibility” for the Rays in their offseason acquisitions, as Neander told Topkin and other reporters, though I wouldn’t expect Tampa Bay to spend anywhere close to $76MM in player salaries. You could see the Rays spread some money around on a few players rather than a singular big splash, and maybe save a bit more for midseason additions if necessary.

More room could be created if a trade partner could be found for Kiermaier, who is owed $44MM through 2022 (this figure includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023) and may be expendable since Smith and Meadows can both play center field. The Rays would be selling low on Kiermaier in the wake of another injury-plagued year for the defensive standout, as he was limited to 88 games due to thumb surgery and then a hairline fracture in his foot in the season’s final week.

Kiermaier has played in just 291 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, and his hitting numbers took a drop in 2018 after climbing above average (108 wRC+) in 2016-17. A healthy Kiermaier who delivers even moderate offense along with his elite glovework can be a major plus in any lineup, so it could be that the Rays hang onto the 28-year-old into next season to see if he can help them contend, or to let him rebuild value for a potential swap.

Whether Kiermaier is one of the players on the move or not, expect Neander and company to again heavily focus on the trade market for the bulk of their winter activity. (The Mariners and Diamondbacks, in particular, should be on alert for calls from a 727 or 813 area code.) Some deals will be necessary just to create some 40-man roster space, as the Rays are facing a crunch to protect enough of their prospects before the Rule 5 draft, though Tampa could also make trade chips of some of these well-regarded minor leaguers plus any Major League roster members that the team doesn’t see as long-term pieces.

It will be particularly interesting to see how the Rays address their rotation, such as it is, as the team has already said that the “opener” strategy will again be deployed in 2019. The Rays’ unconventional use of a short reliever to start a game’s first inning or two before giving way to a long reliever (a.k.a. the “headliner”) generated much controversy around baseball — some praised the creativity, while others questioned whether the strategy would prove too taxing on a bullpen over the long haul, in addition to criticism that Tampa was ruining the starting pitcher’s status within the game.

Given the results, however, the Rays would’ve probably faced more criticism if they abandoned what proved to be a winning method. The Rays posted the sixth-lowest team ERA in baseball, and their strong finishes in various fielding-independent pitching metrics (fifth in FIP, seventh in SIERA, ninth in xFIP) and a .297 wOBA-against that almost directly matched their .300 xwOBA-against indicated that the performance wasn’t built on good fortune.

One big reason the Rays were able to succeed with their openers, of course, was the fact that they had a more traditional ace develop in the form of AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell. Attempting to sign Snell to an extension would mean negotiating with him after a breakout season, though he and his reps will surely have at least some interest in locking in some earnings and protecting against the risk that comes with the job. Certainly, the Rays have proven able in the past to strike such deals when they wish to, a practice that has saved the club loads of money in the long run and ultimately facilitated some notable trades. Even if Snell doesn’t quite match his 2018 production going forward, a young starter signed to a reasonable contract can still be quite a valuable asset, as we saw with the strong haul that Tampa Bay received for Archer.

Going into 2019, Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the only projected full-time starters in the rotation. Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough were the most successful of the headliners and could be fully stretched out to be proper starters, or the Rays could simply continue to use them in their 2018 roles. Top pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon should be available by midseason as they return from Tommy John surgery, though it seems likely that they’ll be used as headliners in order to ease them back into regular pitching duty. Such a long relief job might also be the best use of young right-hander Jake Faria, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing and injury-shortened season.

Normally, a low-payroll team with just two set starters would seem like an ideal candidate to acquire a veteran arm to eat innings. If the opener strategy has taught us anything, however, it’s that such expenditures might not be worth it for a team looking to save their dollars — why pay a veteran even a modest $5MM or $6MM per season to chew up innings once every five games when a shrewdly-deployed bullpen can do the same at a fraction of the cost, and with likely better results? If anything, the Rays could look to sign a veteran arm coming off a rough season or an injury with an eye towards turning them into a headliner to rebuild their value, as it did recently with Eovaldi.

The Rays could also spend on their bullpen by bringing in more swingmen capable of tossing multiple innings, or a veteran with closing experience to replace free agent Sergio Romo. Jose Alvarado earned an increasing number of save opportunities down the stretch and is probably the Rays’ top in-house choice to take over the closer’s job, though hard-throwing Ryne Stanek (the most frequent of the openers, “starting” 29 games) has also often been tabbed a closer of the future. Given these varying needs, Trevor Rosenthal could be an interesting target. Not only is he likely to present some value upside as a Tommy John rehabber, but he has plenty of high-leverage experience and a well-documented desire to be given a chance to throw more innings.

Of course, it’s probably not safe to assume that the Rays will use a traditional closer rather than mix and match their ninth inning plans based on matchups. After all, nothing can really be ruled out when it comes to the Rays and data-driven strategies. The team already took care of one bit of business by extending Cash, ensuring that the Rays’ creativity pipeline will continue to flow as usual within both the front office and the dugout. It could be that opponents will start to figure out the Rays’ tricks over the course of a full season, though the team’s deep wealth of multi-positional players and multi-role pitchers make them a difficult team to prepare against.

The success of this in-season rebuild on the fly has put the Rays in position to compete for a wild card spot in 2019, or perhaps even mount a challenge to the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy if everything absolutely breaks right. As eye-opening as the Rays’ tactics were in 2018, it will be just as interesting to see how they take the next step forward this winter.

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2018-19 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt’s Future

By Connor Byrne | at October 14, 2018 2:01pm CDT

Even though he still has another year of team control remaining, superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – a Diamondback since they chose him in the eighth round of the 2009 draft – may be in his final days with the club. While the path the Diamondbacks will take during the offseason is uncertain, general manager Mike Hazen hasn’t ruled out a full rebuild. Arizona’s in a bind in terms of payroll, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this week, and set to lose two of its best players to free agency in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock.

In the event those factors do lead to a teardown in the desert, the logical move may be to at least gauge interest in the 31-year-old Goldschmidt. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week Arizona will indeed “listen on” Goldschmidt, as dealing him would help restock a barren farm system which Baseball America (subscription required) ranks as the game’s fourth worst.

Between the free-agent and trade markets, Goldschmidt would easily be the premier first base option available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, there don’t seem to be any starting-caliber first basemen set to reach free agency, while all of Goldschmidt’s fellow trade candidates at the position pale in comparison to the six-time All-Star. Those factors – not to mention Goldschmdt’s affordable salary (he’ll play 2019 on a $14.5MM club option) – would likely lead to widespread interest.

2019 will be the final season of the six-year, $46.5MM extension (including the option) he inked with the D-backs entering 2013. The decision to lock up Goldschmidt before he turned into an elite player will go down as one of the best in franchise history, given that the pact has been a steal from the get-go. He broke out in earnest during the first year of it, turning in a 6.0-fWAR campaign, and hasn’t really slowed down since. Now coming off a 5.1-fWAR season (the fifth year of at least 5.0 fWAR in his career), Goldschmidt’s facing an uncertain future for the first time since signing his team-friendly contract.

The D-backs may well keep Goldschmidt through the winter and try to extend one of their all-time greats, regardless of whether they expect to bounce back from an 82-win season in 2019. But if the team doesn’t think it’s going to contend in the near future, or if it’s simply unable to come to terms with Goldschmidt, we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform.

(poll link for app users)

Do you expect the D-backs to trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason?

Yes 56% (5,677)
No 44% (4,492)

Total votes: 10,169

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Arizona Diamondbacks MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Paul Goldschmidt

Statcast Standouts: Pending FA Hitters

By Connor Byrne | at October 14, 2018 10:01am CDT

Major League Baseball’s postseason has shrunk to four teams, meaning we’re only a few weeks away from the opening of free agency. As always, some pending free-agent hitters are coming off excellent seasons in terms of bottom-line results, while others posted uninspiring production in platform years. Thanks to the introduction of Statcast (via Baseball Savant) a few years ago, we now have a better idea of which players deserved their results from this past regular season. With that in mind, using two Statcast metrics – expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls – we’ll take a look at the top pending FA hitters at each position. These numbers don’t factor in a batter’s age, handedness, his defense or his expected asking price, of course, but they give a better idea of what kind of season he’s coming off as a hitter as he heads to free agency.

(Note: We’re going with exit velo on liners/fly balls as a way to take grounders out of the equation, as they’re simply less valuable than air balls.)

Catchers: