MLBTR Originals

Placing The Remaining Top 50 Free Agents

By Steve Adams | March 1, 2018 at 4:21pm CDT

It’s not uncommon for one or two top-ranked free agents to see their unemployment stretch into the month of March, but the 2017-18 offseason has, of course, proven to be anything but common. It’s March 1, and an unprecedented eight of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents remain unsigned — some with a handful of clubs holding interest but waiting out a bargain but others with no clear market for their services at all.

We’ll re-rank the nine best remaining free agents here and assess their current prospects:

1. Jake Arrieta

Arrieta is the top pitcher and top free agent remaining, but he holds that distinction in a market where no club appears poised to offer even four years to any free agent at this point. Agent Scott Boras compared Arrieta to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer earlier this offseason, but it seems abundantly clear that a contract in that duo’s $180-210MM range isn’t happening. (Such numbers always seemed far-fetched.)

The Phillies have been linked to Arrieta in recent weeks, though every report out of Philadelphia has suggested that the team is only interested in capitalizing on a lackluster market and inking Arrieta to a short-term deal — perhaps for three years at a premium annual value. The Brewers have been said to hold some degree of interest but are also unlikely to pay top-of-the-market rates. The Nationals are reportedly maintaining interest, and perhaps that’s Boras’ best bet; he’s pitched directly to owner Ted Lerner in the past and has a strong relationship there. Plus, there’s no clear fifth starter for the Nats, who are currently set to go with A.J. Cole in that spot.

Earlier in the offseason, there were some connections between Arrieta and the Cardinals, though there’s been little in the way of reports connecting the two sides over the past two months. St. Louis already has a full rotation in addition to several 40-man options that appear ticketed for Triple-A to open the season.

The Twins and Angels are reportedly more or less finished with their offseason shopping, though there’s a clear on-paper fit for him in either organization.

Best remaining fits: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Angels

2. Mike Moustakas

At this point, it’s hard to see Moustakas commanding a significant multi-year deal. The 29-year-old belted a career-high 38 homers last year but did so with a .314 OBP that fell within close proximity to his career .305 on-base percentage. Moustakas’ power surge came at a time when the entire league hit long balls at a historic rate, thus mitigating the value of that improvement. Moose and Boras need not look any further than Logan Morrison, who also slugged 38 homers last season and recently settled for a $6.5MM guarantee from the Twins, for proof that those homers aren’t going to be compensated as they once were.

The Cardinals added one power bat to their lineup in Marcell Ozuna this offseason but could conceivably play Matt Carpenter at first, Moustakas at third and split Jose Martinez’s time between first base and the outfield. Bringing him in would likely push the out-of-options Greg Garcia off the roster and make Jedd Gyorko the primary utility option.

The White Sox could toy with the idea of pushing Yolmer Sanchez to a utility role to accommodate Moustakas, while the Braves could do the same with Johan Camargo. But, both of those teams would need to weigh the idea of hurting this year’s draft pool by signing Moustakas, who rejected a qualifying offer in November.

The Phillies could be another dark horse here, given their minimal payroll commitments and the recent underperformance of Maikel Franco. They’d be selling low on Franco if they moved him, though, so it’s far from clear whether there’d be real interest.

Best remaining fits: Cardinals, White Sox, Braves, Phillies, Royals

3. Lance Lynn

Lynn tossed 186 1/3 innings over 33 starts with a 3.43 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, prompting him to reject a qualifying offer. However, he also turned in career-worsts in K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and chase rate while matching his career-low in fastball velocity. Lynn’s .244 BABIP was the lowest among qualified big league starters, while his 79 percent strand rate was among the highest.

Teams surely see value in Lynn as a stabilizing force at the back of a rotation, but it’s doubtful that many of today’s more data-driven clubs are evaluating him based on an ERA that looks poised for some significant regression. The five-year term Lynn reportedly sought earlier this winter isn’t going to come into play, and even three or four years at a solid AAV could be a reach at this point.

There’s still a case for a multi-year deal, of course, and all of the teams listed as plausible landing spots for Arrieta make sense for Lynn as well. One could argue that he also fits on some clubs with less payroll flexibility like the Orioles and Mariners, though neither has been linked to him. If you’re looking for a more concrete indication for how teams value Lynn, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported in his most recent podcast that the Twins threw out a low-ball offer of about $12MM total over two years. Unsurprisingly, Lynn’s agents at Excel quickly shot that down, but it’ not a great sign when that’s the type of interest he’s fielding in early March.

Best remaining fits: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Twins, Angels, Orioles, Mariners

4. Greg Holland

Holland reportedly had the opportunity to return to the Rockies on a three-year deal earlier this offseason, but the Rox moved on and signed Wade Davis when Holland continued shopping for better deals. It’s hard to see him coming anywhere near the $51MM that Davis secured now, and any three-year deal at a premium rate would come as a surprise.

The Cardinals still don’t have much name value at the back of their ’pen, and speculatively speaking, the Cubs could make a bargain play for Holland if he’s willing to sign a two-year deal. The Angels would reportedly consider him at the “right price.” The D-backs could use some bullpen depth and were willing to stretch payroll for J.D. Martinez, so there’s probably enough wiggle room to make it happen — especially on a backloaded deal. The Rockies, meanwhile, have been stockpiling arms, so if Holland’s price drops enough, perhaps they’d further double-down on that strategy in hopes of compiling a super-pen.

Houston was tied to Holland earlier this winter and never added a big-name reliever, while the Phillies have payroll flexibility and some open spots in the bullpen should they decide that Holland’s price has lowered to the point where he’s a good value proposition. The Nationals have been connected to Holland at times, but it seems likelier they’ll focus elsewhere after adding multiple relievers already.

Best remaining fits: Cardinals, Cubs, Angels, D-backs, Rockies, Astros, Phillies

5. Alex Cobb

Reports of Cobb’s “willingness” to sign for a four-year term in the $70MM range back in January seemed optimistic for a variety of reasons. Now, with Spring Training underway, it’s even tougher to see him landing anything within arm’s reach of those numbers. Like Lynn, Cobb posted a solid ERA in his comeback season from Tommy John, but his profile is teeming with red flags. He’s never made 30 starts or topped 180 innings in a season, his swinging-strike rate was the third-worst in all of baseball last season, and multiple reports have cited scouts questioning the effectiveness of his formerly above-average changeup.

His market overlaps with those of Arrieta and Lynn, but he also comes with draft/international forfeitures after turning down a qualifying offer. Cobb reportedly turned away a three-year deal in the $42MM range from the Cubs earlier this offseason, and I’d be surprised if he topped that figure at this point.

Best remaining fits: Brewers, Phillies, Nationals, Twins, Orioles, Mariners

6. Jonathan Lucroy

Lucroy’s bat bounced back with the Rockies after a terrible start to the season with the Rangers, but his framing numbers plummeted and his power was nowhere to be found — even at Coors Field. There simply aren’t many (or perhaps even any) clubs looking for starting catchers, and the ones that arguably should be aren’t in aggressive pursuit of upgrades.

The A’s could certainly stand to look for an improvement over Bruce Maxwell, who hasn’t hit much in the Majors and is facing some troubling off-field allegations. However, Oakland brass has voiced commitment to Maxwell on more than one occasion. The Nationals would be well-served to find an alternative to Matt Wieters after a dreadful first year in D.C., but perhaps they don’t relish the idea of buying low on a second veteran in hopes of a rebound.

Speculating, the Brewers could look at Lucroy as an insurance option for Manny Pina, who stumbled in the season’s second half last year after a surprising first half. Stephen Vogt and Jett Bandy are in camp as backup options, though Vogt is out up to three weeks with a shoulder issue and on a non-guaranteed arbitration contract, while Bandy is out of minor league options and struggled tremendously in 2017. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are currently slated to use light-hitting Luke Maile as their backup to Russell Martin. There’s a fit there, but Lucroy probably prefers more playing time as he seeks to reestablish himself.

Best remaining fits: Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, Blue Jays

7. Neil Walker

Walker might be the toughest of the remaining free agents to place. He told Billy Witz of the New York Times this week that he thought he was close to going to the Yankees before they acquired Brandon Drury, and that swap now looks to have eliminated one of the top on-paper fits for him. The Brewers still need a second baseman, and Walker, a switch-hitting veteran who has steadily been an average or better regular throughout his career would be an improvement for them.

Outside of Milwaukee, there just aren’t many teams — contenders or non-contenders — looking for help at the keystone. The Tigers could conceivably move Dixon Machado to a utility role and add Walker if they feel he’s a bargain that they could flip in a trade this summer. Perhaps the Rays could view Walker as an underpriced bargain and cut ties with Brad Miller, whose arb deal isn’t guaranteed, in order to bring Walker in at second base.

The White Sox or Braves could sign him to put him at third base, though displacing current options to play Walker out of position seems like a stretch even by the loose standards set within this writing. Barring a spring injury, the market for Walker is extremely limited, which is unfortunate for him, as he’s long been a solid contributor. At the very least, he’s an intriguing bench option for contending clubs in a role not dissimilar to the one he was likely exploring with the Yankees.

Best remaining fits: Brewers, Tigers, Rays

8. Carlos Gonzalez

CarGo picked a bad time for the worst offensive performance of his career, but it’s worth noting that he raked at a .327/.401/.553 clip over his final 227 plate appearances (albeit with a massively unsustainable .401 BABIP). Both the trade and free-agent markets in recent years have illustrated very clearly that modern front offices simply don’t value bat-first corner options in the same manner as their front-office predecessors. Gonzalez is hardly a butcher in the outfield, but he’s 32 years old and even favorable projections aren’t likely to peg him as more than an average right fielder.

The Orioles are the clear best fit in my eyes, having spent the offseason pining for a left-handed bat to play in right field but to this point settling on minor league deals for Colby Rasmus and Alex Presley. (Meanwhile, prospect Austin Hays’ shoulder is barking, though that seems like a short-term issue.) Adding CarGo on a short-term deal would fit well with a closing window as most of their stars are set to depart this coming offseason. A return to the Rockies isn’t exactly a clean fit given the outfield options they already possess, but Colorado has kept in touch with Gonzalez all offseason, per GM Jeff Bridich, and the slugger is already being missed in the clubhouse.

The White Sox strike me as a team with room to add, and striking a deal with CarGo would bump Leury Garcia to a super utility role for which he may be better suited than everyday activity. But, GM Rick Hahn has suggested recently that he’s not in a rush to take at-bats away from potential longer-term options. The Royals recently brought Michael Saunders in on a minor league pact and continue to face some outfield uncertainty, but GM Dayton Moore has stressed that the economic component of any signing is critical to them right now. (Put another way: CarGo is probably too expensive for them.)

Best remaining fits: Orioles, Rockies, White Sox, Royals

9. Jon Jay

Jay doesn’t bring any power to the table and isn’t a great center fielder, but he’s a solid on-base guy that can be used at all three outfield slots. He hits left-handed but without a significant platoon split, and he’s been an average or better overall hitter each season in the Majors except his ugly 2015 campaign (by measure of OPS+ and wRC+).

Perhaps that means he’s not an ideal starter, but he’d make for a useful fourth outfielder or something slightly more — similar to the manner in which the Cubs used him last year when he received 433 plate appearances. He’d fit the Orioles’ desire for a lefty outfielder — the center-field capability also helps there — and he’d perhaps be more affordable for the Royals than Gonzalez. The Tigers could use him as a fourth outfielder, or he could be a stopgap for the Braves until Ronald Acuna reaches the Majors. The Marlins were linked to him before they signed Cameron Maybin, but he still makes some sense there. And I could see him landing with the Nationals if they view him as an upgrade over Brian Goodwin as a fourth outfielder.

Best remaining fits: Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Braves, Marlins, Nationals

Poll: Still-Unemployed Top Ten Free Agents

By Kyle Downing | February 24, 2018 at 3:08pm CDT

Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.

The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…

Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.

Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.

Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“

Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.

Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.

A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?

Poll link for app users

What Other Teams Could Emerge For J.D. Martinez?

By Mark Polishuk | February 14, 2018 at 7:38pm CDT

For the last several weeks, virtually all of the buzz around J.D. Martinez has centered around two teams — the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. Various reports have stated that the Sox have a five-year offer on the table for the slugger that is worth somewhere between $100MM and $125MM, possibly closer to the former figure than the latter. Martinez and agent Scott Boras came into the offseason with a much higher salary in mind, and while time and a lack of suitors has likely dropped that initial $210MM price tag quite a bit, Boston’s apparent unwillingness to increase its offer has turned the situation between Martinez’s camp and the Red Sox into something of a “staredown.”

The D’Backs, meanwhile, also won’t come close to a $210MM figure but their approach has been to see if Martinez would accept some type of unique contract (i.e. a shorter-term deal on a higher average annual value, possibly with a player opt-out clause after a season or two) to return to the desert. Boras has personally met with D’Backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick multiple times over the offseason, plus Martinez said after the season concluded that he greatly enjoyed playing for Arizona, so there is certainly some opportunity for a reunion between the two sides.

Obviously, Martinez’s particularly good relationship with the D’Backs opened the door for their chances at signing him to a deal that may fall short of his original target — he and Boras aren’t likely to be as flexible for a team that Martinez isn’t as familiar with, or isn’t planning on contending in 2018. Still, since the stalemate in the Red Sox negotiations has opened the door for one team to get involved in Martinez’s market, could others follow suit?

Compiling a list of potential JDM suitors in mid-February is tricky, despite the fact that Martinez would boost any lineup in baseball. Concerns about Martinez’s injury history and his lack of defensive value as an outfielder haven’t gone away, and the unprecedentedly slow free agent market is also an impediment to a signing on a couple of fronts. Firstly, a team could pass on Martinez for one of several other notable bats who are available at a lower price. Secondly, some of the “Team X could be a fit for Martinez if they made another trade” scenarios are problematic since these hypothetical teams could be wary of having a positional surplus in a market where potential trade partners could, again, just opt to sign someone else.

Let’s begin by eliminating the teams that clearly don’t seem feasible, whether because they’re rebuilding or due to a lack of payroll: the Marlins, Reds, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Royals, Tigers, Indians, and Athletics. It’s worth noting that while San Diego and Kansas City may be prepared to offer a nine-figure contract to Eric Hosmer, their interest in such a splurge extends specifically to Hosmer himself due to his youth (he is over two years younger than Martinez).

Beyond those teams, you have another wide array of clubs who can likely be eliminated since they’ve already added outfielders this winter or had crowded outfield/DH situations to begin with: the Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, and Astros. A few of these teams were linked to Martinez in rumors earlier in the offseason, but St. Louis (Marcell Ozuna), San Francisco (Andrew McCutchen), and Toronto (Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk) all went in different directions for their outfield needs.

With 21 teams and the Red Sox and D’Backs already covered, let’s look at the seven remaining clubs, some more feasible than others…

Orioles: Signing Martinez would push top prospect Austin Hays from right field favorite to versatile fourth outfielder, likely spelling Martinez or Mark Trumbo (whomever isn’t the DH) on a regular basis as a late-inning defensive replacement. With Manny Machado and Adam Jones both entering their final year under contract, signing Martinez would be a clear sign that Baltimore plans to contend beyond the Machado/Jones era should both leave in free agency. Unless the O’s plan to simply try and out-mash opponents next year, however, it seems far more likely that the team will use any available dollars on pitching, as the Orioles still have as many as three rotation spots that are still up in the air. Beyond that, Baltimore generally only spends big money when it comes to extending or re-signing their own players, not in splurging on new talent.

Rangers: Essentially, it’s the same scenario as the Orioles, with Martinez blocking another notable prospect (Willie Calhoun) and serving as long-term lineup reinforcement if other big stars (Elvis Andrus/Adrian Beltre) aren’t back in 2019. The only difference is that Texas has already made some significant moves to shore up its rotation, and GM Jon Daniels has been open to big free agent signings in the past. A connection here also seems pretty far-fetched, as the Rangers have been wary about further extending payroll this winter.

Mariners: GM Jerry Dipoto is much more prone to make a big trade than a big free agent signing, plus Seattle already has Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel lined up for regular corner outfield duty, with Nelson Cruz locked in at designated hitter. With Cruz only under contract for one more season, however, the Mariners could envision a scenario where Gamel becomes a bench player while Martinez fills the other corner slot, with an eye towards Martinez shifting into a DH/part-time outfielder role come 2019. A Seattle/Martinez link makes only a bit more sense than the Rangers or Orioles since it’s a better positional fit, and if a Martinez contract will require some outside-the-box thinking at this stage in the offseason, one can’t rule out the team that acquired Dee Gordon to play center field.

Rockies: Or, for that matter, maybe you can’t count out the team that signed Ian Desmond last winter to play first base. Signing Martinez would send Desmond back to first, which would temporarily block prospect Ryan McMahon. Desmond could shift back to the outfield in 2019, potentially, if Charlie Blackmon left in free agency and Gerardo Parra’s club option wasn’t exercised, leaving the 2019 Colorado outfield as some combination of Desmond, JDM and possibly Raimel Tapia or David Dahl. Moreso than the O’s, Rangers, or Mariners, the Rox are my favorite of the “block a good prospect to go for it in 2019” group, though as with the other teams, payroll is also a concern. Signing Martinez would more or less rule out re-signing Blackmon, and the team also presumably needs some future payroll space available to explore a Nolan Arenado extension. There’s also added risk in a Martinez signing for a National League team given the lack of a DH spot to account for his defensive issues.

Nationals: Realistically, Washington is in the “crowded outfield” group thanks to their set alignment of Adam Eaton in left, Michael Taylor in center and Bryce Harper in right. Signing Martinez would put Eaton or Harper in line for much more center field duty than the Nats would like, as Taylor would be pushed to the bench. That said, the relationship between Boras and the Lerner family is so well-documented that one can’t ignore the Nationals when it comes to any high-profile Boras client. Plus, you could make the argument that Taylor’s presence allows for regular rest for Martinez, Harper, and Eaton, which helps the trio with checkered injury histories stay fresh throughout the season and into October. The Nats are another team facing significant free agent departures after 2018 in the form of Harper and Daniel Murphy, so Martinez is a hedge against either departing. (Which creates another interesting dynamic since Harper is also represented by Boras.)

White Sox: Like the Phillies’ signing of Carlos Santana this offseason or the Nationals’ signing of Jayson Werth in December 2010, a White Sox/Martinez contract would be the type of “stay tuned” deal made by a rebuilding team that is announcing its impending intention to compete. The White Sox have lots of payroll room, plus lineup space at DH or in either corner outfield spot — Martinez and Avisail Garcia would play every day, with Leury Garcia also seeing a lot of action and Nicky Delmonico and the players in the center field mix battling for bench duty. (There’s also a chance Eloy Jimenez could force his way into the picture sometime during the season.) Such a signing would be a bold move from GM Rick Hahn, though it may be too much of a risk at this point in Chicago’s rebuilding process. Inking Martinez would essentially be declaring that the rebuild will be over in 2019, and that may be too early a call given that so many of the promising young players in the organization have yet to establish themselves at the MLB level, or have yet to reach the bigs whatsoever.

Twins: Okay, so this one is one of those “Team X could be a fit for Martinez if they made another trade” situations I decried earlier in this post, though this one comes with some basis in recent rumors. With the Rays reportedly interested in Max Kepler, a scenario exists where Minnesota deals Kepler as part of a trade package for Jake Odorizzi or Chris Archer. With a newly-created hole in right field, the Twins then sign Martinez, who could also join the team’s planned DH rotation (especially if Miguel Sano faces a suspension). Needless to say, adding JDM would more than address the Minnesota lineup’s issues against left-handed pitching. A Martinez contract would be a big expense for a smaller-market team like the Twins, and their offseason focus has been almost entirely pitching-centric. On the flip side, the team has so little payroll committed beyond 2018 that they could feasibly add Martinez, one of Archer or Odorizzi, and still be able to afford another decent starter given the stalled free agent market.

Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Deal

By Connor Byrne | February 11, 2018 at 10:27am CDT

Unfortunately for those who follow baseball, the most popular topic in the sport this offseason has been the historically slow free-agent market. Upward of 100 players remain without contracts as spring training nears, but the good news is that the top available veteran finally came off the board Saturday.

The six-year, $126MM agreement the Cubs reached with right-hander Yu Darvish will hopefully lead to a flurry of signings in the near future. Regardless of how the majors’ other 29 teams react, it likely concludes the offseason heavy lifting for Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have added Darvish, two other starters (Tyler Chatwood and the injured Drew Smyly) and a pair of established relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek) to a club that ruled the National League Central in each of the previous two years.

Even without Darvish, the Cubs probably would have entered 2018 as the popular pick to win the division, though arguments could have been made for either the rival Brewers or Cardinals to seriously challenge for the crown. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis have been active this offseason after nearly making the playoffs last year. As things stand, though, they’re clearly looking up at a Cubs team with a set rotation (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood) and an enviable group of position players. There was speculation earlier in the offseason that Chicago would deal from its lineup and/or farm system to boost the front of its rotation, but bringing in Darvish officially took that possibility out of play.

Along with retaining their position players and prospects, there are other other obvious benefits to picking up Darvish, including that he’s a tremendous starter who should boost the Cubs’ World Series chances in the coming years. The towering flamethrower, who emigrated from Japan in 2012, generally thrived with the Rangers and Dodgers, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll fail in Chicago in the near term. Speaking of the Dodgers, they rank as arguably the prominent concern in the NL for the Cubs (with Darvish’s help, they upended Chicago in the NLCS last season), so pilfering the 31-year-old from LA makes the signing all the more satisfying for Chicago. Plus, because Darvish was part of a midseason trade and wasn’t eligible for an offseason qualifying offer, reeling him in won’t cost the Cubs anything in draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.

With Darvish now in the mix, the Cubs will say goodbye to free agent Jake Arrieta, who did receive a QO after the season. When he heads elsewhere, Chicago will nab a pick after the second round of this year’s draft in return. Of course, even though Darvish is more hyped than Arrieta and will likely end up with the bigger guarantee of the two this winter, some may prefer the latter. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta wasn’t great last season, when he alarmingly lost some velocity, but he has been the more successful of the two in recent years. During his run as a Cub from 2014-17, Arrieta ranked third among starters in ERA (2.67), fifth in fWAR (18.5) and collected a Cy Young Award (2015).

Even if you’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta, the contract comes with some risk for the Cubs (which you’d expect with all big-money accords). Specifically, it’s in the form of an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. If Darvish pitches well enough over the next two years to vacate the deal in favor of another trip to the market, his departure would create a sizable hole for a Chicago team that hasn’t had great success at developing starters during the Epstein era, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required).

On the other hand, should he go downhill during the next two years and stick with his current contract, it could leave the Cubs with another expensive, declining veteran to join Lester (guaranteed $25MM after 2019, including a $10MM buyout for 2021) and outfielder Jason Heyward (guaranteed $86MM from 2020-23). The Cubs took the opt-out risk on Heyward when they signed him to an $184MM contract prior to 2016, when he was one of the sport’s foremost all-around players. Since then, his offensive game has gone in the tank, making it unlikely he’ll leave when he’s allowed to after next season or potentially at the end of the 2019 campaign.

To the Cubs’ credit, the $126MM guarantee looks quite reasonable for Darvish, and at $21MM per year, it’s palatable from a luxury tax standpoint. During a normal winter, Darvish may have ended up with a much wealthier contract. In fact, at the start of what has since turned into a bizarre offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM payday for Darvish, while former FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron forecast an even richer figure ($168MM) over the same term. All things considered, then, it seems the Cubs made out rather well with this move – one they hope will help guide them back to World Series glory in 2018. What are your thoughts?

(Poll link for App users)

Are MLB Players Overpaid?

By Tim Dierkes | February 7, 2018 at 6:20pm CDT

MLB players earned more than $4MM on average in 2017, with some players’ salaries exceeding $30MM. For most people, that’s an unfathomable amount of money. Many people feel that baseball players and other athletes are overpaid, with the median American full-time worker earning around $45K per year.

Why do people object to MLB player salaries? One reason is the nature of the profession – Major League Baseball is a game played for the public’s entertainment, while baseball itself is a game many of us played in our youth for the sheer enjoyment of it. MLB players don’t serve an essential function to society like a teachers or doctors. And to many, the work of an MLB player seems less difficult and much more enjoyable than a typical job. It can be difficult to stomach professional athletes earning 100 times or more than that of a typical American.

Another reason some fans consider players to be overpaid is ticket prices. For a family of four to see the Cubs host the Cardinals on a Saturday in July, sitting in the upper deck, currently costs $565.91 on Stubhub for tickets alone. Of course, context is everything. Go to a Rays-White Sox game on a Wednesday afternoon in April, and a family of four can get in the door for $50 or less. At the heart of the matter: how much do player salaries actually affect ticket prices? I’m not an economist, but I think one would argue that teams will charge what fans are willing to pay. If player salaries were magically cut in half tomorrow, but demand for tickets remained the same, would you expect teams to reduce prices?

The other side of the coin is that, as difficult as it may be to accept given their salaries, MLB players might be underpaid. As an industry, MLB’s revenue has grown to $10 billion. As Nathaniel Grow wrote on FanGraphs a few years ago, the players’ percentage of that pie has dropped from a peak of 56% in 2002 to less than 40% in 2015. No one’s suggesting fans should feel sympathy for wealthy MLB players, but rather that they are entitled to fight for their fair share of the sport’s revenue. After all, without these 1,000 or so players, there’s no MLB. More money for the players doesn’t have to mean higher ticket prices; it would just mean less for the owners. Those on this side of the debate would note that MLB players are highly compensated because there are so few people in the world capable of doing their jobs, and interest in watching them perform drives the sport’s revenue.

As tensions mount between the owners and players, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand. App users can click here to take the poll.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | February 4, 2018 at 3:41pm CDT

Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

Unfortunately, the most popular topic in baseball throughout this offseason has been the lack of activity across the league. There are several factors that could explain why things have gone so slowly this winter, as Kyle Downing detailed. After laying those reasons out, Kyle asked readers to identify the main culprit. The belief among voters is that free agents’ asking prices are simply too high.
With Alex Avila now a member of the Diamondbacks, Jonathan Lucroy is the only starting-caliber catcher remaining in free agency. In the wake of the Avila signing, Mark Polishuk examined potential destinations for Lucroy and then polled readers on a landing spot for the two-time All-Star. The Nationals have received the most votes to this point.
After the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Matt Albers and Boone Logan, Kyle wondered whether they’re poised to build on their 86-win 2017 with a postseason trip this year. The majority of voters do expect the Brew Crew to be a playoff team.
First baseman Logan Morrison is among many free agents still on the market late in the offseason. Any team that signs him could be adding a significant bat to its lineup for an affordable price, I argued.

Someone Should Take A Chance On Logan Morrison

By Connor Byrne | February 4, 2018 at 9:32am CDT

Major League Baseball is roughly a week and a half away from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, yet over 100 players remain without contracts. Even most of the premier players in this year’s free agent class haven’t found contracts to their liking, so it’s no surprise that plenty of mid- to lower-tier veterans also remain unsigned. Among them is first baseman Logan Morrison, who, despite enjoying a career year with the Rays in 2017, has only drawn scant interest this winter. While MLBTR projected a three-year, $36MM payday for Morrison entering free agency, that may prove to be rather optimistic.

Not only does free agents’ earning power tend to drop as the spring gets closer, but Morrison has seen several teams address first base needs as he has continued to sit on the market. Any of the Phillies (Carlos Santana), Mariners (Ryon Healy), Red Sox (Mitch Moreland), Indians (Yonder Alonso) or Mets (Adrian Gonzalez, Jay Bruce) could have conceivably picked up Morrison this winter, but each has already acquired at least one established first baseman. Of those teams, the only potential suitor for Morrison could be the BoSox, who are still in the market for a slugger to man the designated hitter spot. However, they’ve been locked on the best offensive player available – J.D. Martinez – all winter. Perhaps Morrison will enter the picture for Boston if it doesn’t sign Martinez, but it would be a surprise at this point if JDM went elsewhere.

Regardless of whether it’s the Red Sox or someone else, Morrison seems quite capable of helping a team. Sure, the 30-year-old’s career has been unremarkable thus far (5.6 fWAR in 3,354 plate appearances with Miami, Seattle and Tampa Bay), but Morrison seems to have found another gear in recent years.

Since the second half of 2016, when he slashed .244/.352/.526 over an admittedly small number of plate appearances (91), Morrison has been one of baseball’s most formidable hitters. He proved himself on a much grander scale last year, parlaying a personal-best walk rate (13.5 percent, compared to a 10.5 percent lifetime mark) and a career-high fly ball rate (46.2 percent, up from 37.5 percent) into a .246/.353/.516 line in 601 PAs. That output led to a 3.3 fWAR and a robust 130 wRC+, which ranked 30th among big league regulars, while he finished tied for seventh in home runs (38) and 10th in isolated power (.270).

Morrison’s 2017 production seemingly wasn’t just smoke and mirrors. According to Statcast, he ranked 26th in barrels per PA and 32nd in balls hit at least 95 mph. Thanks in part to his hard-hitting ability, Morrison ended the year with a .365 expected weighted on-base average that fell right in line with his real wOBA (.363). That xwOBA number placed 26th in the majors, tying him with superstar Kris Bryant and another Windy City standout, Jose Abreu. Adding to the intrigue, Morrison’s success came despite playing half his season at one of the majors’ least friendly venues for left-handed batters, according to Baseball Prospectus. And while many lefty hitters tend to fare poorly against same-handed pitchers, that hasn’t really been the case with Morrison. He posted an above-average 109 wRC+ versus southpaws in 2017 and has compiled a playable mark (95) during his career.

All of the above suggests Morrison may quietly be one of the game’s top offensive threats nowadays, yet finding an obvious landing spot for him at this late juncture of the offseason is difficult. Given that their first basemen ranked second to last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.3) last season, the Rockies may be the best match for Morrison, and transitioning from the cavernous Tropicana Field to the hitter’s paradise known as Coors Field would seemingly be a boon for him. However, at last check, Colorado hadn’t even considered Morrison. The club could instead turn the keys at first over to prospect Ryan McMahon and/or re-sign bargain free agent Mark Reynolds.

Meanwhile, other first base bottom feeders from 2017 – Seattle, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Boston, San Diego, New York (AL), Miami and Texas – have a.) upgraded there this offseason, b.) will continue to ride with their starters from last year or c.) are seemingly only going to spend a notable amount if it’s for much-hyped free agent Eric Hosmer (the Padres). Hosmer’s only MLB employer to date, Kansas City, could certainly use a first baseman if he does depart. Interestingly, Morrison is a KC native who has said he’d love to play there. There hasn’t been any reported interest on the Royals’ side, however, and considering they’re in a rebuild, that might not change even if Hosmer exits.

Should nothing materialize at first, where St. Louis could also be an option if its interest in Hosmer is any indication, Morrison may be able to catch on somewhere as a primary DH. Again, though, obvious fits aren’t easy to find. On paper, he’d be a significant improvement over the Angels’ Albert Pujols, but both the future Hall of Famer’s massive contract and the presence of ballyhooed pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani seem to stand in the way of a signing. DH appears to be spoken for among almost all other AL teams, too, with the Yankees looking likely to rotate the position among multiple players and the Mariners (Nelson Cruz), Indians (Edwin Encarnacion), Athletics (Khris Davis), Blue Jays (Kendrys Morales), Rangers (Shin-Soo Choo), Astros (Evan Gattis), Tigers (Victor Martinez) and Orioles (Mark Trumbo) having prominent veterans on hand.

It’s less clear what the Rays, Royals, Twins and White Sox will do at the position, on the other hand. As terrific as Morrison was for Tampa Bay last season, there hasn’t been any buzz about a reunion, in part because the Rays entered the offseason in payroll-cutting mode. The Royals, as mentioned, are in a rebuild, and that could point them to a young, in-house option (Jorge Soler). The Twins could stand to upgrade at DH over the Robbie Grossman/Kennys Vargas/Eduardo Escobar trio, though they’re understandably more focused on bettering their pitching. Plus, if they do add a position player, it might make more sense to find a third base option, thus protecting against a possible suspension for Miguel Sano and/or allowing the big-bodied Sano to spend more time at DH.

Chicago, which is making progress in its own rebuild, actually could make sense as a destination for Morrison. The ChiSox probably won’t push for a playoff spot in 2018, but the same could be said of the Phillies, who still splurged on Santana and had to give up a draft pick and international bonus pool money in the process. Unlike Santana (and Hosmer, for that matter), signing Morrison wouldn’t cost anyone a pick or international money because he didn’t receive a qualifying offer after the season.

While Morrison did all he could to boost his stock during a platform year, it still hasn’t led to an offseason payday during what has been an especially cold winter for major league free agents. The calendar says he’s going to sign soon, though, and if Morrison’s recent work is any indication, the team that lands him just might be adding a reasonably priced offensive force at a time when they’re not typically on the market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Will Sign Jonathan Lucroy?

By Mark Polishuk | January 31, 2018 at 9:37am CDT

Jonathan Lucroy went into the offseason as the most prominent free agent catcher available, though with February just a day away, Lucroy is still looking for his next team. Yesterday’s news of an agreement between Alex Avila and the Diamondbacks took yet another potential landing spot off the board for Lucroy, leaving him with a rapidly narrowing list of options as Spring Training approaches.

While Lucroy is far from the only notable player whose market has stalled in this unprecedentedly-slow free agent season, his case is a particularly interesting one given the traditional lack of catching depth around baseball. There was certainly reason for teams to have concern about Lucroy heading into the winter, most notably his decline in power and framing ability and his massive slump in the first half of the 2017 season, yet you’d think that a player with Lucroy’s track record would’ve found some type of acceptable contract given how often teams require an upgrade behind the plate. It was just in 2016, remember, that Lucroy hit .292/.355/.500 with 24 homers over 544 plate appearances.

As it happened, however, Lucroy seems to have run into something of a perfect storm of circumstances. Beyond just his down 2017 season and the overall free agent deep freeze, the catching market was further crowded by the presence of J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal as trade candidates. Lucroy also happened to hit free agency in a winter when most of the contending teams were pretty set behind the plate. The D’Backs and Rockies both had holes at catcher, though Arizona went with Avila while Colorado signed Chris Iannetta despite some known interest in bringing Lucroy back to Coors Field.

Beyond just the contenders, a larger-than-usual number of teams in various stages of rebuilding phases haven’t had interest in spending significant dollars on a catcher (or, Lucroy may not have interest in finding himself traded at the deadline for the third consecutive year, which would be a distinct possibility if he joined a losing team on a pillow contract). The White Sox gave Welington Castillo a two-year deal, while other catchers have inked one-year Major League pacts or minor league contracts to serve in backup roles.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Lucroy 20th on our Top 50 Free Agents list, projecting him for a two-year, $24MM deal. Finding even that modest contract seems unlikely at this point, though that could open the door for more teams to some looking at Lucroy as a potential bargain. Here are some of the candidates…

Mets: Lucroy reportedly drew some interest from the Amazins earlier this month, and they certainly fit the description of a team that could turn to Lucroy if (or now that) his price tag can fit into their limited budget. Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link) outlined some of the reasons for a Mets/Lucroy connection this morning, calling him “a perfect fit” given Travis d’Arnaud’s defensive limitations and the fact that d’Arnaud could either be retained as a non-costly backup or perhaps shopped himself in trade talks.

Astros: Aside from the Mets and Rockies, there has been very little buzz about Lucroy on the rumor mill this winter, to the point that this item from Jon Heyman back in November about Houston’s interest in Lucroy represents the only other team linked to the catcher this offseason. In the two and a half months since Heyman’s report, the Astros agreed to a $6.7MM arbitration-avoiding deal with Evan Gattis and plan to use him as their primary DH, and also signed Tim Federowicz as minor league depth to battle with Max Stassi for the backup job. A catcher/DH timeshare between Lucroy and starter Brian McCann would’ve been creative, though it doesn’t seem like the Astros still seem like plausible suitors.

Nationals: Unwilling to deal their very best prospects to Miami for Realmuto, the Nats could pivot away from a trade and instead sign Lucroy to supplant Matt Wieters as the everyday catcher. Lucroy could potentially be a open to a discount to play for a World Series contender like Washington, and even a two-year deal would make a him a nice bridge to Pedro Severino if the Nationals still see the youngster as their catcher of the future. One obstacle: after getting burned on the Wieters contract, could the Nats be wary about signing another veteran catcher showing signs of decline?

Athletics: In the wake of Bruce Maxwell’s arrest on aggravated assault and disorderly conduct charges, GM David Forst said that the A’s were still counting on Maxwell as their first-choice catcher heading into 2018. With Lucroy still on the market months later, however, the A’s might take advantage of an opportunity to land a potential star catcher at a lower price. As mentioned earlier, however, Lucroy might be hesitant to join a team that could again make him a trade deadline chip.

Orioles: Dan Duquette is no stranger to signing free agents still lingering on the market in February. Top prospect Chance Sisco is slated for regular duty next season, though since 2018 is clearly a go-for-broke season for the O’s with so many big names (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Buck Showalter, and Duquette himself) entering the last year of their contracts, the team might want more of a proven veteran presence behind the plate.

The field: You could stretch and make cases for such teams as the Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Rangers, Cubs, or Angels as potential Lucroy suitors, though these teams range from “probably only in the event of another trade” or “major longshots.” Still, we could be in for a wild February of player movement given how much has yet to be decided within the free agent market. It isn’t out of the question that further trades could open up a spot for Lucroy on an unexpected roster, and an injury in Spring Training could also create a new suitor out of nowhere.

Where do you think Lucroy will be playing come Opening Day? (poll link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: How Good Are The Brewers?

By Kyle Downing | January 29, 2018 at 11:42pm CDT

The Milwaukee Brewers have had a busy offseason (especially over the course of the past week), and they appear to be nearing the end of a surprisingly short rebuild.

Just last week, it would have seemed odd to count the Brewers as serious contenders for an NL Central pennant in 2018, considering the apparent strength of the rival Cubs and Cardinals. But the Brew Crew shocked the baseball world by acquiring Christian Yelich from the Marlins and signing Lorenzo Cain to a five-year contract within a span of two hours. They’ve since signed Matt Albers to a two-year contract as well, who’ll join lefty Boone Logan as veteran upgrades to the club’s bullpen.

But even after all those upgrades, Fangraphs still projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 77-85. That’s surprising on the surface considering the club’s 86-76 record in 2017 in combination with the team’s offseason moves thus far. But when taking an in-depth look at the club’s roster, they have some key holes that may hurt their ability to compete with more complete teams.

The club’s rotation is their most obvious issue. Jimmy Nelson, who took an enormous leap forward last season, will be sidelined until June while recovering from a torn labrum. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies seem like safe bets, but beyond them is a risky and seemingly low-ceiling group that includes Brent Suter, Yovani Gallardo and Jhoulys Chacin. That’s not to say that the Cubs and Cardinals don’t have their own sets of question marks, but the Brewers’ rotation without Nelson could prove somewhat of a white-knuckle experience for fans.

It’s not as though the club can simply lean on its bullpen, either. Corey Knebel and Josh Hader will serve as an intimidating closer and fireman, respectively, but beyond them there’s plenty of uncertainty. The recently-signed Matt Albers isn’t a lock to repeat the figures of his career year in 2017, and Boone Logan is returning from a lat strain that sidelined him for the final two months of his contract with the Indians last season. The remainder of the club’s relief corps is a ragtag group that includes Junior Guerra, Jacob Barnes, Olivier Drake and the declining Jeremy Jeffress. The bridge to Hader and Knebel is a rickety one.

Milwaukee’s offense can probably be looked at as a strength, but it’s not without holes of its own. It remains to be seen whether Jonathan Villar can bounce back from an incredibly poor 2017 campaign during which he struck out more than 30% of the time and posted an on-base percentage below .300. The club will also count on 30-year-old catcher Manny Pina to sustain his sudden offensive breakout.

That being said, the Brewers lineup on the whole is intimidating, to say the least, particularly if the young Orlando Arcia takes another step forward, Travis Shaw keeps his foot on the gas and Ryan Braun remains mostly healthy. If things break right, their offense could end up being on par with those of the Cubs and Cardinals.

It’s time for the readers to weigh in. Sure, there’s some offseason left to go, and a pitching market that could certainly shift the division’s power balance once the dominoes begin to fall. But as things stand right now, do you think the Brewers are a playoff team?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: What’s Holding Up The Market?

By Kyle Downing | January 29, 2018 at 12:43am CDT

The snail’s pace of the 2017-2018 offseason is painfully apparent, and it’s been painstakingly examined. One union official appears to believe it’s a symptom of issues that’ll inevitably lead to new labor negotiations, which in turn could reshape the infrastructure of baseball’s economic landscape. While such an assessment certainly seems extreme, so is the unprecedented territory the market is about to embark upon: if nothing changes in the next three days, February will emerge with the top five free agents lacking jobs, and ten of the top twenty.

Before we get too deep into the gravity of a situation that could still feasibly resolve itself ahead of spring training, let’s begin by rejecting the idea that just one factor is at play in this undertaking. The historic circumstances before us are likely due to a convergence of contributing powers (though one could feasibly make a case that the symptoms all stem from one singular disease). But as ever, we only know a laughable percentage of the information buried deep within the offices of ballclubs, player agents and the MLBPA. With that in mind, it might be more rational for us all to examine the individual catalysts on the surface rather than develop conspiracy theories about how they might all be interwoven.

To that end, here are some items that, in theory, could be holding up the market…

The Competitive Balance Tax: If the combined average annual salaries of all players on a team’s roster exceed $197MM in 2018, that team will need to pay a tax on the overage. The luxury tax isn’t anything new. However, with the escalating penalties built into the current CBA, some teams are paying as much as 50% on the surplus. The Yankees, Dodgers and Giants are all taking this heavily into consideration for the coming season, and are seemingly working very hard to remain below the threshold in order to reset the escalators. If they manage to do so, the incentive is that they’ll only need to pay a 20% tax on their next overage.

While one might react by pointing out that those teams can certainly afford high penalties, it’s fair to mention that resetting the escalators will save them money not just for one or two seasons, but potentially through 2021. That footnote is all the more relevant when one considers the caliber of players who will be available on the free agent market next season (Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, etc.), and the dollars those players are likely to command. If the Yankees, as a purely speculative example, were interested in vying heavily for the services of Harper and Machado, they could end up blowing past the 2019 tax barrier ($206MM) by over $50MM. In such an instance, resetting the cap in 2018 would make not only a difference of $15MM the following season, but perhaps some $10MM the year after that, and yet more dollars in the season that follows.

Tying it all back to the free agent market, these considerations could dramatically reduce the competition for the top tier free agents by removing three or four of their potential suitors. Because over a dozen teams are already eliminated from the running due to their market size (and resulting income), while still others may not have a need for a given free agent’s position, the upper echelon of free agents may be seeing their market value fall off due to the law of supply and demand. Looking at it from another angle, if a player was expected to have eight suitors and now has only three or four, those remaining teams may be less afraid of seeing their target scooped up, and may therefore feel more comfortable waiting for his price to drop.

Collusion: It’s important to note immediately that MLB has staunchly denied any collusion between its teams, and has made readily apparent the lack of evidence to support any such claims. Indeed, there is no legitimate reason to think that MLB isn’t telling the truth. That being said, I’ve included this in the list simply because the notion still going to be on some fans’ minds. The motivation for potential collusion is obvious: if all 30 teams collectively agreed to wait until free agent prices dropped, they’d stand to save tens of millions of dollars between them. At its core, MLB would still have baseball games to produce absent a couple dozen players… the players themselves would have much more to lose. Being that this is such a dark subject (and incredibly unlikely), we won’t spend any more time looking at it.

Agent Scott Boras: In its denial of collusion, MLB aptly pointed out that a certain agent who is know for being incredibly patient represents a large number of free agents who are still on the market. Furthermore, Boras was said to be seeking an astronomical deal for J.D. Martinez at the outset of the offseason. If the asking price for Martinez remains anything close to that number, it’s easy imagine that no team sees him as capable of providing value on such a contract. And if that’s also the case for Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer as well, the fact that all four remain unemployed would simply make fiscal sense. Going deeper down the rabbit hole of this hypothetical scenario, it’s not hard to imagine that many teams would want to wait for these dominoes to fall before turning to inferior options.

Coalescence of Player Evaluation: With a statistical revolution already many years in the making, focus on advanced scouting and analytics has increased tenfold. But from GMs to interns, hundreds of employees have changed organizations, and it’s thought possible that teams are converging on uniformity by which they evaluate players. If that’s true, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if all teams quietly and unknowingly agreed on price points for free agents; that would obviously reduce the likelihood that two or more teams end up in a bidding war for a player’s services.

Focus on Next Year’s Class: This one’s pretty simple. Teams like the Phillies and Braves might not like their chances of competing this year, and therefore could be comparing members of this year’s class with those of next year’s. For example, why the Phillies spend on Moustakas when Machado is a possibility and they see themselves as unlikely to compete with the Nationals this year? It could be that they’re only interested in the former if he comes at a bargain (the latter certainly won’t), so it would make perfect sense that Philadelphia might be willing to balk at his actual market value.

Apathy Towards a Free Agency: Teams are well aware at this point that lengthy contracts given to aging players seldom work out well and sometimes handcuff a franchise for years. Albert Pujols, for example, was worth two full wins below replacement level in 2017, and he’s signed through the 2021 season. The aging DH is a liability on the roster at this point, meaning the Angels owe him over $100MM in what amounts to a sunk cost. Contracts given to Alex Rodriguez and Prince Fielder have worked out similarly towards the tail ends, and plenty of other large and medium-sized contracts have hurt a team’s ability to compete for years. Free agency, at its core, is an incredibly cost-inefficient market. It’s possible that teams have simply learned their lesson about promising too many years to players who are, by the very nature of an aging curve, in a phase of decline.

Lack of Effort to Win: The past two teams to win a World Series got there by tanking for years, putting that model firmly in the spotlight. In some cases, fans may now be rooting for their teams to lose for a few years in order to match the extreme nature of the Houston and Chicago rebuilds. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports pointed out in this piece, there are at least eight MLB teams who have absolutely no intention to compete in the free agent market this winter, in part because those teams have no desire to put effort towards a title run in 2018.

Tanking has become an acceptable business model, and a lucrative one considering the money not spend on free agents can simply become revenue instead. With nearly a third of all teams content to sit out, it would make sense that the market just never developed like it has in the past. Indeed, many teams have turned to the trade market to fill their needs; a strategy that’s become that much more feasible due to the number of teams not trying to win.

Players Overestimating Their Markets: While there is certainly incredible upside to players like Darvish, Martinez and Hosmer, there are significant question marks surrounding each of them. Darvish had a dreadful World Series performance and has been through Tommy John surgery in his career. Martinez has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons. Hosmer has played at or below replacement level in three seasons of his career. And yet the latter two haven’t accepted reported offers of over $120MM. This year’s class of free agents is imperfect, and perhaps they simply overestimated their markets at the outset of the offseason.

While this covers the bulk of the obvious potential explanations, there are yet others I haven’t even touched on. But at this point, I’d like to ask you all to weigh in. Yes, the slow offseason has certainly been caused by a number of factors. But what do you think is the biggest contributor to the pace of the market?

(Poll link for app users)

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