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MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

Hitters Approaching Significant Career Milestones

By | at March 18, 2024 9:23am CDT

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The 2024 season is just days away. It’s a time of renewed hope for at least the vast majority of teams. It also opens the opportunity for a few veteran players to continue building on what have already been very accomplished careers, some of which should happen early in the year.

Hits

Among active players, Joey Votto leads the way with 2135 career hits. Votto is on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays and might start the season in Triple-A. Freeman will be back in the middle of a loaded Dodger lineup. While he won’t reach any notable round numbers this season — he has a shot to get to 2500 by the end of the ’25 season if he stays healthy — he’ll continue his ascent up the leaderboard in the next few months. Freeman needs only 51 more hits to surpass the original Billy Hamilton and climb into the top 200 on the all-time list. If he tops 200 hits for the second straight season, he’d pull alongside Eddie Mathews into the top 150 by year’s end.

Goldschmidt is 91 hits away from reaching the 2000 club. He’d almost certainly be the 297th player to get to that threshold, depending on whether Evan Longoria decides to continue playing. Longo is only 70 knocks away from that mark but was undecided on whether he’ll give things another go at last check. Even if Longoria does return, Goldschmidt could surpass him on the career leaderboard within a couple months. The 2022 NL MVP hasn’t had a stint on the injured list in almost a decade. If that continues, he should pick up hit #2000 sometime around the All-Star Break.

Notable players approaching 1500 hits: Mookie Betts (1485), Starling Marte (1470), Justin Turner (1461), Giancarlo Stanton (1454), Nick Castellanos (1451), Salvador Pérez (1411)

Home Runs

Stanton is the only active player with more than 400 career homers. There aren’t any traditional milestones upcoming but a 30-homer showing would put him in rare territory. Cal Ripken Jr. currently sits 50th all-time with 431 longballs. Stanton isn’t a lock to get there this year, as his overall production has plummeted over the past two seasons. Still, he topped 30 in both 2021 and ’22 and hit another 24 last year despite the worst numbers of his career.

Trout is the only player with a realistic shot to join Stanton in the 400-club this year, as he sits 32 away from that mark. After Votto and Longoria, Goldschmidt is next among active players at 60 homers away. Trout only hit 18 homers a year ago thanks to a hamate fracture in his left wrist. He’s only one season removed from popping 40, though. He’ll need to stay healthy, but he could get to 400 career homers in August or September.

Goldy will need to wait until 2025 to have a chance at the 400-homer plateau, but he’s nearing a notable spot on the leaderboard. With his ninth homer this year, he’d surpass George Foster and move into the top 100 in MLB history. As is the case with the hits milestone, Longoria could complicate this. Longo is at 342 career homers, although it’s unlikely he’ll hit seven more before Goldschmidt picks up his ninth of the season.

McCutchen and Rizzo should each join the 300-homer club early in the year. McCutchen almost certainly would’ve gotten there late last season were it not for a partially torn Achilles suffered in early September. The Pirates begin the season on a seven-game road trip before welcoming the Orioles to PNC Park in their home opener.

Rizzo also suffered an injury that kept him from the 300-homer plateau last year. After a torrid start, he suffered through a dismal slump related to what the Yankees believe was post-concussion syndrome arising out of a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28. They shut him down in August. McCutchen and Rizzo should become the 12th and 13th active players (including Votto, Longoria and J.D. Martinez) to get to the 300-homer mark.

No one else is knocking on the doorstep of 300, although there could be one more late-season entrant to the group. Aaron Judge enters the year with 257 career longballs. A 43-homer showing is certainly within the range of outcomes if he stays healthy.

Notable players approaching 200 homers: Joey Gallo (198), Brandon Belt (194), Christian Yelich (193), Pete Alonso (192), Randal Grichuk (191), Justin Turner (187), Joc Pederson (186), Kris Bryant (182), Max Muncy (180), Cody Bellinger (178), Javier Báez (175), Xander Bogaerts (175)

RBI

There are nine active players who have driven in more than 1000 runs over the course of their careers: Longoria, Votto, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, McCutchen, Stanton, Carlos Santana and Martinez. The next five up all have a chance to join them, although it’d take a monster year from Harper to drive in 111. (Harper has topped that once, picking up 114 RBI for the Phillies in 2019.) Abreu, Machado and Trout should get there if they stay healthy. Rizzo could be a borderline case but drove in 70 as recently as two seasons ago.

Stolen Bases

Among active players, Elvis Andrus leads the way with 347 career steals. He’s on a minor league deal with the D-Backs, though, so Starling Marte (338) is tops among players currently on a 40-man roster. Altuve and Turner are next in line and could each get to 300 this season. Altuve should do so with relative ease, even if he doesn’t run nearly as often as he did early in his career. Turner has an uphill battle. While he has twice topped 40 steals in a season, he hasn’t gotten past 32 in any of the last three years. To his credit, he went 30-30 last year, so there’s no questioning his efficiency.

Wins Above Replacement, bWAR

WAR doesn’t lend itself to milestone tracking with the same ease as the simpler counting stats. A player’s WAR total can go backwards, for one, and there’s no specific in-game moment when they’ll pass a certain threshold. Even if it’s not the easiest statistic to follow in real time, it’s one that teams and many Hall of Fame voters take into account, so it’s worth highlighting a few players.

The aforementioned hamate injury kept Trout to a modest 3-win season a year ago. B-Ref credited him with over six wins in 2022. Replicating that production would make him the only active player to surpass the 90-WAR threshold for his career, a mark topped by only 30 position players in league history. Trout currently sits 33rd on that list. He should pass Chipper Jones and George Brett this year, with an outside chance of tracking down Wade Boggs, Jimmie Foxx and Al Kaline.

With another star-level season, Betts will surpass the 70-WAR threshold. Coincidentally, 70 position players in league history have gotten to that level. Of those players who are eligible for Hall of Fame consideration, only eight (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Rafael Palmeiro, Bobby Grich and Carlos Beltrán) aren’t enshrined in Cooperstown. There’s already no real doubt that Betts is en route to the Hall of Fame, but crossing the 70-WAR mark will further entrench him among the elite players in MLB history.

Notable players approaching 60 WAR: Freeman (55.7), Machado (54.9), Arenado (54.4)

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MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

By | at March 16, 2024 5:30pm CDT

The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. Despite that, it ended up being an offseason focused on changing and planning for the future.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $5MM
Total spending: $5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Marlins got to pop some champagne last year but it quickly went flat. They were eliminated by the Phillies, swept out of the Wild Card series by losing 4-1 on October 3 and then 7-1 on October 4. Shortly thereafter, on October 6, it was reported that Sandy Alcántara would require Tommy John surgery, putting their ace out of action for the 2024 season.

But it was nonetheless a refreshing season for the club. The Marlins hadn’t even had a winning record in a full season since 2009, so to get over .500 and squeeze out a couple of playoff games was a nice step forward, relatively speaking. That’s why it registered as a surprise that the winter began with a front office shakeup. By mid-October, it was reported that the club and general manager Kim Ng would be parting ways.

Ng, who had been in that job since November of 2020, was on an expiring contract. There was a mutual option for 2024 but she was reportedly informed by owner Bruce Sherman that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work over her. The club triggered their end of the option but she decided not to trigger hers, an understandable move since it would essentially amount to a demotion after dragging the club into the postseason.

It was later reported that Sherman had concerns about the organization’s reputation for drafting and developing, particularly on the position player side, as the club has often had strong pitching staffs in recent years but the lineup has largely been built via trade. Despite many losing seasons in recent memory and plenty of high draft picks, on top of the club getting extra picks and strong international bonus pools as a revenue-sharing recipient, the club’s farm is not held in high esteem. Baseball America currently ranks them 27th out of the 30 teams in the league, FanGraphs 26th, The Athletic 28th while MLB Pipeline and ESPN both have them at 29th.

As such, change was the name of the game in Miami. Ng was eventually replaced by Peter Bendix, who had been working across the state for the Rays. Given that Tampa Bay has a strong reputation for consistently churning out young talent with limited resources, it seems Miami is hoping to bring some of that magic down south. But that wasn’t the only move in the suit-and-tie section, as scouting director D.J. Svihlik was let go, former player and coach Gabe Kapler was brought aboard to fill a front office role as assistant general manager, Rachel Balkovec was hired as director of player management, Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new vice-president of player personnel and Sara Goodrum as director of special projects.

In contrast to that flurry of changes, the roster hasn’t had a lot of significant turnover compared to last year. Arguably, the most notable change is that slugger Jorge Soler will no longer be a part of the club. He hit 36 home runs last year and decided to opt out and retry free agency, leaving $13MM on the table. That ended up being a wise move, as he secured a three-year, $42MM deal from the Giants. The Marlins didn’t receive any compensation for his departure as they opted not to issue him a $20.325MM qualifying offer.

Soler told reporters in January that the Marlins had not reached out to him about a reunion. There was some contradictory reporting later that month that suggested the club was indeed talking to Soler about coming back, but after signing with the Giants he again affirmed that he had no contact with the club over the winter.

It seems the club had little appetite on spending money to address the designated hitter vacancy. They’ve recently been connected to J.D. Martinez, who remains unsigned, but the odds of him landing in Miami seem low.

The lack of interest in free agency wasn’t limited to the DH spot, as the club spent close to nothing this winter. They came into the offseason with clear holes at the shortstop and catcher positions but didn’t attack those spots with much gusto.

Christian Bethancourt sort of fell into their laps as the Rays, the former club of Bendix, put the catcher and several other players on waivers in the hopes of cutting costs. The Guardians won the claim but later signed Austin Hedges and flipped Bethancourt to the Marlins for cash. Bethancourt and the Fish eventually avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $2.05MM.

Bethancourt is generally considered a solid defender, particularly with the running game, but his offense is inconsistent. He hit .252/.283/.409 in 2022 but dropped to .225/.254/.381 last year, his wRC+ going from 100 to 74. Regardless, he has a decent chance of being better than Jacob Stallings, who is also renowned for his glovework but hit just .210/.287/.290 with Miami over the past two seasons.

At shortstop, they were connected to various names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Nick Ahmed and Gio Urshela, but the position remained unaddressed until late February. The offseason had slowed considerably and plenty of free agents remained unsigned at that point, allowing the Marlins to take a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson.

He is coming off a dreadful season, having hit just one home run with a diminished batting average and lesser defensive metrics as well. But he was a solid everyday shortstop for many years prior to that and will be a bargain if he can turn things around. A knee injury suffered early in last year’s campaign perhaps offers an explanation for his poor results, as his sprint speed was down compared to previous seasons.

From 2017 to 2021, he posted double-digit home run totals, even in the shortened 2020 season. He got to double-digit steals in each of those full seasons as well. In 2022, he missed time due to injuries and only got into 79 games but still hit .301/.339/.395 for a wRC+ of 110. FanGraphs considered him to be worth at least two wins above replacement in each year from 2018 to 2022 and in 2016 as well.

There was also a lot of trade chatter around the club’s starting rotation, as has become the norm in recent years. But the club’s long-standing rotation surplus has been diminished, which made a trade less likely. The club traded away Pablo López last offseason as part of the deal to bring in Luis Arráez, and the aforementioned Tommy John surgery for Alcántara subtracted another hugely important arm.

That didn’t stop clubs from sniffing around, as Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera were the subject of trade rumors this winter. As of right now, the Fish have decided to hold onto the pitchers they have, which is probably for the best. Both Garrett and Cabrera are dealing with shoulder injuries here in camp and are questionable for Opening Day, while Eury Pérez is likely to open the season the shelf as he battles a broken fingernail and elbow soreness.

Most of those issues appear to be fairly minor and there’s nothing to suggest any of them is facing a lengthy absence, but the depth is going to be tested early on. Had the club decided to pull the trigger on a Luzardo deal, the picture would have looked even worse. Long-time reliever A.J. Puk has been stretched out and it seems like the injuries could give him plenty of runway to return to a starting gig, something that he did as a prospect.

In the end, the club will be going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster to last year, though it’s debatable whether that’s a good thing. Despite making the playoffs, the club actually had a -57 run differential last year, putting them in the bottom 10 of major league teams. They had an incredible 33-14 record in one-run games, allowing them to go 84-78 despite an expected win-loss of 74-88, a tough feat to repeat with consistency. That’s particularly true with a pair of notable subtractions in the bullpen. Puk figures to move to the starting staff, while the Fish flipped Steven Okert to the Twins for utility player Nick Gordon early in camp.

Soler will be gone, with Avisaíl García perhaps picking up his at-bats if he can stay healthy. Full seasons from last year’s deadline pickups Josh Bell and Jake Burger could also factor in for some more thump in the lineup. Joey Wendle is out as the regular shortstop and Anderson would be an upgrade if he puts 2023 behind him. Bethancourt will likely be a bit better than Stallings behind the dish. Losing Alcántara hurts but perhaps it won’t be so bad if the club can get steps forward from younger pitchers like Puk, Pérez, Cabrera, Max Meyer or Trevor Rogers.

Ultimately, the future of the franchise will likely be written behind the scenes, as the club seems determined to overhaul its systems for evaluating and developing younger players. As a franchise that generally doesn’t spend much, it’s important for the organization to provide productive players from within, as those players are more affordable than veteran free agents.

That could lead to significant changes down the road but the 2024 club isn’t substantially different from the 2023 version. Whether that can lead to another strong season in a tough National League East remains to be seen.

How would you grade the Marlins' offseason?

  • D 41% (770)
  • C 27% (500)
  • F 24% (449)
  • B 6% (119)
  • A 2% (37)

Total votes: 1,875

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2023-24 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

By | at March 15, 2024 6:36pm CDT

The Tigers had a fairly encouraging season last year and spent the offseason bolstering the depth with various mid-tier acquisitions.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $37.25MM
Total spending: $47.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Tigers had a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, with various players either returning to health or taking a step forward in terms of performance. They were never really in contention, but did manage to go 39-34 after the All-Star break and sneak into second place in the American League Central.

That vaguely echoed the club’s 2021 campaign, where they went 37-34 after the break and felt like they had a chance of coming out of their rebuild. They spent big on Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez that winter but the 2022 campaign turned into a disaster. General manager Al Avila was fired in August and the Tigers eventually finished 66-96.

Avila was eventually replaced as the club’s top decision maker when Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations. Harris seemed leery of making the same mistake as Avila and didn’t want to overplay the club’s hand this winter.

“Sometimes, teams overestimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs,” Harris said in November. “And they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back.” He added that the Tigers are going in the right direction but “can’t do anything in free agency or in trades that sets us back. If we find an opportunity that’s going to push us forward and we’re confident of that, we’re going to do it.”

That threw some cold water on the Tigers being big players in free agency, though they could have done so if they wanted. Miguel Cabrera‘s contract finally reached its end, which freed up a lot of capital in the club’s budget. The Tigers went into this offseason with nothing committed beyond 2024 except for the Báez deal. That deal pays him salaries of $25MM or $24MM for the remaining four years, which isn’t nothing.

But the club has run payrolls as high as $200MM in the past, as their last competitive window was shutting down, as shown at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That spending was under owner Mike Ilitch, who passed away in 2017. His son Chris has been calling the shots since then and hasn’t had the budget as high, but the club has also been rebuilding in that time and hasn’t had the need to spend wildly. With some encouraging developments on the roster and Cabrera’s deal gone, it was at least possible to dream on the club coming out firing.

That made it at least somewhat plausible when the club was connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto early in the winter. But the comments from Harris pointed to a more measured offseason, which is what eventually transpired.

Yamamoto went to the Dodgers but the Tigers did make a couple of additions to their rotation. Kenta Maeda was added via a modest two-year, $24MM pact. It might not be the most exciting signing, with a cynic able to point to the facts that Maeda is about to turn 36, missed all of 2022 due to internal brace surgery and then posted a middling 4.23 ERA in 2023.

But there’s also a more optimistic lens through which to view the deal. Maeda went on the injured list due to a triceps strain in late April last year, right after getting shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. That poor performance could perhaps have been a byproduct of his injury, as he finished quite strong after he recovered. He was activated off the IL in June and put up a 3.36 ERA the rest of the way, pairing an excellent 29% strikeout rate with a strong 7% walk rate.

The Tigers also added Jack Flaherty on a one-year “prove it” deal. Flaherty was one of the best pitchers in league in 2019 but struggled with his health over the three following campaigns. He was finally healthy again in 2023 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

If Flaherty can take a step forward in terms of results now that he’s further removed from his health troubles, the Tigers will be the beneficiary. They can either trade him at the deadline or give him a qualifying offer at season’s end, depending on how things play out.

The Maeda and Flaherty deals perhaps aren’t as exciting as a major splash would have been, but they raise the floor of the rotation. Perhaps more importantly, they do little to hurt the club in the future. Flaherty’s deal is just for one year while Maeda’s is only two, and slightly frontloaded. He’ll made $14MM this year and just $10MM in 2025, meaning he’ll do little to hamper any spending the club may try next winter.

The approach was similar with other parts of the roster. The club has some intriguing outfielders in Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and Akil Baddoo. But they are all fairly inexperienced and all happen to hit from the left side. The Tigers decided to complement that group by acquiring Mark Canha from the Brewers.

Canha had actually finished the final guaranteed year of his contract, but there was an $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The Tigers sent a modest return, minor league reliever Blake Holub, in order to get Canha at that reasonable price point. He’ll provide their young outfielders with a veteran presence and give the club a solid right-handed-hitting veteran, while not committing them to anything beyond this year.

That approach carried to the infield as well, with the Tigers having some uncertainty at both second base and third base. They had internal options for those spots with guys like Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibañez and Matt Vierling on the roster, though the guys in that group are arguably best suited to multi-positional part-time roles. They also had prospects like Colt Keith, Jace Jung and Justyn-Henry Malloy, though none had reached the majors by the end of 2023 and Malloy was likely slated for a move to the outfield due to his subpar infield defense.

The club added to this group by making a late signing of third baseman, Gio Urshela, who lingered on the open market well into February. The Tigers were able to get him to put pen to paper for just $1.5MM. He’s coming off an injury-marred season with the Angels but he’ll be a bargain if he can get back to health and the kind of form he showed with the Yankees and Twins.

As for second base, the club signalled its intentions there by signing Keith to a six-year extension with three club options as well. It was a remarkable show of faith in a player who has yet to make his major league debut, but he has continued to hit at every level he’s played. He hit .306/.380/.552 between Double-A and Triple-A last year while just 21 years old for much of the year, as he turned 22 in mid-August.

Ultimately, the club’s young players will determine the future of the franchise. Keith, Jung, Malloy, Meadows, Greene, Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson are all controlled through at least 2028. On the pitching side, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize can still be retained through 2026 while Reese Olson, Matt Manning and Sawyer Gipson-Long are controllable beyond that. Pitching prospects like Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden and Jackson Jobe are creating some buzz despite not yet having reached the majors.

For this year, that young core will have some help from the veterans that the club brought in. Maeda and Flaherty join the rotation, Canha and Urshela on the position player side. The bullpen got a couple of veteran additions as well, with lefty Andrew Chafin and righty Shelby Miller signed to one-year deals.

If a few things break right, it’s possible to imagine the club competing this year. As mentioned, they were above .500 after the break last year and the division is arguably the weakest in the sport. The Royals were aggressive this winter but face a steep climb after losing 106 games last year. The Guardians did almost nothing this offseason. The White Sox are tearing things down. The Twins are the reigning champions in the division and are still strong overall but made some cost-cutting moves and are arguably in a weaker position than they were last year.

The Tigers will see how things go and will continue to have a fairly wide open future. The Keith extension added some more money to the long-term ledger, but they still have less than $40MM committed to each season beyond this one. As things develop, there should be plenty of opportunity to hit the gas whenever the front office decides the time is right.

One thing that would appear to be a constant in that future is the presence of manager A.J. Hinch. He and the club agreed to a long-term extension in December. The details of that new arrangement aren’t clear, but he was previously under contract through 2025, so he is now locked in beyond that. He was hired by the previous Avila regime, so this new deal acted as a sort of symbolic stamp of approval from the Harris front office, showcasing that the two sides could indeed work together while helping to avoid any conversations about future lame-duck situations.

How would you grade the Tigers' offseason?

  • B 51% (1,110)
  • C 30% (660)
  • A 10% (212)
  • D 7% (150)
  • F 3% (55)

Total votes: 2,187

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

By | at March 14, 2024 7:28pm CDT

The Reds almost made the playoffs last year as they promoted several exciting prospects and seemed to firmly end their rebuilding period. They added to that foundation this offseason by spreading money around to several free agents.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $61.75MM
Total spending: $111.75MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Though the Reds came up just shy of a postseason berth in 2023, it was still an encouraging campaign. Exciting prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott and Noelvi Marté all debuted, adding to a roster of young talent that already included TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and others.

It was a turning point moment for the franchise in another way as well. In addition to that infusion of young talent, 2023 was the final guaranteed year of Joey Votto‘s long-running contract. Signed way back in 2012, he had many excellent seasons for the Reds. But as is so often the case with lengthy contracts, the final years weren’t especially pleasant. Votto missed time in each of the past two years thanks to shoulder surgery. He could have been retained via a club option but the Reds understandably wanted to give more playing time to younger players.

It’s a bittersweet pivot for the club, as Votto is a franchise legend and was one of the few reasons to watch during some challenging years. But he was making $25MM annually in the final years of his contract, a sizeable chunk of change for a club that doesn’t generally run high payrolls. He lingered in free agency for a while but recently signed with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal which comes with a modest $2MM base salary if he makes the club.

With Votto’s contract off the books, the Reds were able to have one of their busiest offseasons in recent memory. Their huge supply of position players seemed to not only squeeze out Votto, but also led to plenty of speculation about a trade. Since the club had an on-paper infield of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain and Encarnacion-Strand, it seemed that Steer was going to be pushed to the outfield and India onto the trading block.

Despite persistent rumors, the club was consistent in maintaining that India wasn’t going anywhere. The 2021 National League Rookie of the Year is coming off two injury-marred campaigns but the Reds seemed to believe in a bounceback and also to value his clubhouse presence. Not only was he not traded, he got a two-year deal to avoid arbitration, locking in a salary for 2025.

The club not making a trade was one surprise, but it was even more surprising when they added another infielder. They signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal with a club option for 2027. His presence further crowded the infield picture, but the Reds don’t have a strict DH, so they could use that spot to rotate their many infielders through. Candelario also gave them a bit of insurance if any of their young infielders suffered an injury or a sophomore slump and needed to return to the minors for a spell.

In hindsight, it now looks wise that they added to their infield, as Marté was recently hit with an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test. As he will sit out the first half of the season, the infield suddenly looks far less crowded. Candelario can play both corner spots but will now likely replace Marté as the regular third baseman.

Elsewhere in the position player mix, the club was facing a slight catching shortage. Last year, they had three backstops, with Luke Maile and Curt Casali in the mix. That allowed Tyler Stephenson to serve as the designated hitter and occasionally play first base. He had a bit of a down year but at least the smaller workload behind the plate kept him off the injured list. Each of Maile and Casili became free agents but the Reds re-signed Maile. Since Casali signed elsewhere, it seems they will pivot to a more traditional two-catcher setup this year.

But the main target of the offseason was pitching. The pitchers on the 2023 club were fairly inexperienced and they also dealt with a number of injuries. The pitching staff as a whole had a 4.83 earned run average last year, better than just five other clubs in the majors. The rotation was even worse, with the Cincy starters posting a 5.43 ERA, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

They could have expected some improvement just with their incumbent options. Each of Greene, Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft spent time on the injured list last year, while Abbott was only able to log 109 1/3 innings due to his midseason promotion. But the club wasn’t content to rely solely on improvements from that group and went on to cast a wide net this winter in looking for upgrades. Their interest extended to notable free agents and trade targets, including Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Yariel Rodríguez and Wade Miley.

They didn’t seem to find much traction in those pursuits. The talks with the White Sox about Cease stalled when the Sox seemingly asked for four or five notable prospects, a price that the Reds were understandably unwilling to pay.

Instead, their big rotation addition came from free agency. The club took a bounceback flier on Frankie Montas, who has been battling shoulder issues for quite some time. He missed some time late in 2022 due to his shoulder and was shaky when on the mound, then required surgery going into 2023 which wiped out most of that season.

There’s certainly risk in giving $16MM to a pitcher with those health concerns, but it’s only for one year and will be a bargain if Montas can get back to his previous self. He made 32 starts with the A’s in 2021 with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate.

The club also bolstered their staff by signing swingman Nick Martínez, who will likely be in the rotation but could eventually end up in the bullpen depending on how things play out. He has worked both roles with the Padres over the past two years, giving Cincy some flexibility to assess the health and performance of Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, Ashcraft and others.

In case Martinez is needed in the rotation, the club also reinforced their bullpen in other ways. They took a gamble on Emilio Pagán, signing him to a two-year deal. He’s coming off a strong season, having posted a 2.99 ERA with the Twins in 2023. But he’s a flyball pitcher who saw his home run to flyball rate drop to 5.3% on the season. The previous three seasons saw that rate fall in the 13-19% range as his ERA finished between 4.43 and 4.83 in those years. Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park was the most homer-friendly venue in the league last year, per Statcast, so the move is a bit eyebrow-raising.

On the other hand, their signing of Brent Suter looks like a steal. He has kept his ERA under 4.00 in five straight seasons, generally doing a great job limiting hard contact. That continued in 2023 even though he moved to the hitter’s haven of Coors Field. He likely could have secured a contract larger than one year and $3MM if he looked to maximize his guarantee, but he grew up in Cincinnati and went to high school there, perhaps leading him to take a bit of a discount to play for his hometown team. Buck Farmer was also brought back to Cincy on a modest deal.

All told, the club boosted the floor in a lot of different areas. They added a couple of starters to the rotation, a few relievers to the bullpen and even added to the already-strong position player mix. Perhaps the recent news about Marté will lead them to dip back into free agency, as there are still players out there.

The club was previously connected to Michael A. Taylor, who remains unsigned. He can provide elite defense and his right-handed bat would pair well with lefty-swinging outfielders like Friedl, Jake Fraley and Will Benson. Steer and India are both right-handed and in the mix for outfield playing time but the Marté suspension might open up some infield playing time for them, perhaps making the fit for someone like Taylor more viable.

Regardless of how that plays out, the roster looks strong going into 2024. They were carried by their lineup last year and almost made the playoffs, despite dismal results from their pitching staff. Even a slight correction could be enough to make them a legit playoff club, but they also increased their chances by signing Montas, Martínez, Pagán, Suter and Farmer. Internal improvements from Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Ashcraft and others would only help matters.

The National League Central is fairly wide open, with no clear favorite. The Reds clearly sensed they have a chance this year and are trying to take advantage. They didn’t make any blockbuster moves but strengthened the roster in several other ways.

How would you grade the Reds' offseason?

  • B 52% (1,357)
  • C 26% (669)
  • A 14% (368)
  • D 5% (137)
  • F 3% (74)

Total votes: 2,605

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By | at March 14, 2024 3:55pm CDT

The Astros entered the offseason anticipating a few depth acquisitions. An injury to one of their anticipated setup relievers spurred them in another direction: a bold strike for one of the sport’s best late-game weapons.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $25MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Astros very narrowly missed another trip to the World Series. They dropped two straight at home against the Rangers to lose a seven-game ALCS. Watching their in-state rivals secure the first championship in franchise history might add some fuel to the fire, but the Astros would’ve remained firmly in win-now mode no matter how things played in October.

That didn’t necessarily portend an active winter. Houston went into the offseason with a projected franchise-record payroll. They have one of the sport’s most complete rosters. They were set to lose a few contributors but no instrumental piece of the core. Michael Brantley (who eventually announced his retirement), Martín Maldonado and the relief trio of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were Houston’s only free agents of note.

As a result, general manager Dana Brown indicated early in the winter that the team didn’t expect to do anything drastic. He suggested their outside acquisitions were likely to be more of the depth variety, identifying backup catcher and middle relief as the target areas.

Before they could turn their attention fully to the roster, the Astros had to address the coaching staff. Dusty Baker stepped down at year’s end, concluding what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame managerial career. Joe Espada, who had worked as bench coach under both A.J. Hinch and Baker, has long seemed to be a manager-in-waiting. The Astros tabbed Espada in mid-November, giving the 48-year-old his first managerial opportunity. Organizational stalwart Omar López moved up to bench coach.

Continuity was also a theme for much of the roster, although the Astros started the offseason with a few moves around the margins. During the Winter Meetings, they inked former Brewer Victor Caratini to a two-year, $12MM pact to serve as backup catcher. That marked the end of Maldonado’s run in Houston. The Astros declared before the winter that they’d turn the primary catching job to 25-year-old Yainer Díaz, who brings a lot more offensive upside than Maldonado offers. Given Maldonado’s stature in the clubhouse, it probably would have been tough to move him fully to a backup role in Houston. It made more sense to let him sign elsewhere — he eventually landed with the White Sox on a $4.25MM pact — and bring in a new #2 option.

Caratini wound up being Houston’s only MLB free agent position player pickup of the winter. It was their only major league signing at all well into January. That’s when the club revealed that Kendall Graveman required shoulder surgery that’d end his 2024 season before it got off the ground. Between Graveman’s injury and the aforementioned trio of free agent losses, the relief corps suddenly looked alarmingly thin behind the late-inning duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.

Brown initially played coy, saying the Graveman injury wouldn’t add any urgency to bring in relief help. Yet it clearly concerned both the front office and ownership, who signed off on a surprising strike at the top of the market. Within three days of announcing the Graveman news, the Astros inked Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM pact. It’s the second-largest guarantee to a reliever in MLB history and the highest in terms of net present value after accounting for deferrals in Edwin Díaz’s $102MM deal with the Mets.

It was a completely out of character splurge for the organization. While owner Jim Crane has approved player payrolls in the upper third of the league, the organization has been averse to long-term free agent commitments. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Hader deal was the first time the Astros stretched to five years on a free agent since Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. They’d only even gone to four years once before on the $52MM Josh Reddick pact. It was also the first time that Houston signed a player who had declined a qualifying offer.

Crane and Brown considered it worthwhile to deviate from typical procedure to add arguably the sport’s best reliever while the team’s path to a title remains clear. The five-time All-Star is coming off a 1.28 ERA showing while striking out almost 37% of batters faced for the Padres. Houston gave up their second-round pick and $500K in international signing bonus space to install him in the ninth inning. That bumps Pressly into setup work, where he’ll pair with Abreu in what should be an electric back of the bullpen.

Strong as that final trio is, the middle relief group does look like a relative weak point. The Hader signing meant the Astros eschewed a volume approach to addressing the middle innings. They claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers and took a flier on Dylan Coleman in a minor trade with the Royals. Beyond that, they’re counting on Rafael Montero to rebound from a poor season and hoping for steps forward from an internal option like Brandon Bielak or Seth Martinez. Brown acknowledged over the weekend the team is still looking to add middle relief help. That’d need to come via trade, waivers or potentially a minor league free agent pickup at this point.

As far as weaknesses go, middle relief is one of the easier problems to navigate. The Astros don’t have much concern throughout the rest of the roster. Caratini and first baseman Trey Cabbage, acquired from the Angels after a DFA, were the only position player pickups of the winter. Caratini and Díaz make for a strong catching tandem. José Abreu had a disappointing first year in Houston, but he perhaps found his power stroke in the final few weeks of the season. They’ll give him another shot at first base. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman round out an excellent infield.

Brantley’s departure puts a little more pressure on the in-house outfielders. Kyle Tucker should provide star production in right field. Chas McCormick has been an above-average regular and should get the bulk of playing time in left field. The Astros will turn center field to defensive stalwart Jake Meyers. McCormick can handle center on days when Yordan Alvarez trots out to left field. Mauricio Dubón remains on hand as a multi-positional option off the bench.

There wasn’t much turnover in the position player group. That could change next offseason, as Bregman is on track to hit free agency. That even led to speculation that the Astros could preemptively dangle him in trade talks this winter, although the organization quickly shot down that idea. Brown and Crane each said the team will make an extension offer to Bregman at some point, but that won’t be cheap. His camp could set out in search of a deal exceeding $200MM. The same is true for Tucker, who is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season.

Like Bregman, Altuve had been on track to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season. It was difficult to envision the franchise stalwart donning any other uniform. The Astros and his camp all but ensured that won’t happen. They locked in a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2025-29 seasons. That runs through Altuve’s age-39 campaign, ensuring he’ll be the franchise second baseman through the end of this competitive cycle. Altuve’s defensive grades are declining, but he remains the sport’s best offensive second baseman. Keeping him in the leadoff spot maximizes their chances of staying atop the AL West in the middle third of the decade.

The extension discussion isn’t limited to the position player side. Framber Valdez is down to his final two seasons of arbitration control. He won’t hit free agency until age 32, so he doesn’t have the same earning power as Tucker or Bregman do. Yet he’s deep enough into arbitration that he’d surely cost more than the $64MM which Houston guaranteed Cristian Javier last spring. A Valdez deal would likely go into nine figures. He and the Astros haven’t found an agreeable price point yet. As with Bregman, this led to some early-offseason trade speculation that never seemed to get far.

For now, Valdez slots back in as Houston’s top starter. That might’ve been true even if Justin Verlander were healthy, but the latter will begin the season on the injured list as he cautiously builds up after experiencing shoulder soreness early in camp. Javier, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown will follow Valdez in the season-opening rotation. J.P. France will get the nod as the #5 starter so long as he’s fully recovered from a minor shoulder issue of his own. If France does need to miss time, Bielak, Ronel Blanco or prospect Spencer Arrighetti could find themselves in the mix.

It’s a thinner rotation than the ones which the Astros have rolled out in previous years. That could be a concern around the deadline, but Brown has stated a few times it’s not something they feel compelled to address before Opening Day. Verlander’s IL stay isn’t expected to be too long. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could each be back from arm surgeries in the middle of the season. The front office should have a clearer idea in the summer of the extent to which they can rely on McCullers and Garcia down the stretch.

The gap in the AL West isn’t as wide as it once was. The Rangers and Mariners both pushed last year’s division race into the final weekend of the regular season. Texas got the last laugh in October. Still, the Astros have taken the AL West crown in six of the last seven seasons (all aside from the shortened 2020 schedule). They’ve gotten as far as the ALCS every year since 2017. This probably won’t be the best Astro team of the last few years, but there’s certainly enough talent to put them in the conversation at the top of the American League yet again.

How would you grade the Astros' offseason?

  • B 44% (1,059)
  • C 33% (784)
  • A 12% (278)
  • D 7% (166)
  • F 5% (124)

Total votes: 2,411

 

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

By | at March 13, 2024 8:55pm CDT

Beyond the Guardians’ search for a new manager, most of Cleveland’s offseason headlines focused on the drama surrounding the club’s broadcasting contracts, leading to an unusually quiet winter.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $4.75MM
Total spending: $4.75MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The “future manager” tag was affixed to Stephen Vogt well before he ended his 10-year MLB playing career, and once he retired following the 2022 season, it didn’t take long for Vogt to land his first managerial job.  The Guardians’ interview process involved such names as Craig Counsell (who surprisingly became the Cubs’ new skipper) and Carlos Mendoza (now the Mets’ manager), but they opted for Vogt, who steps into the big chair after a single year of coaching as the Mariners’ bullpen/quality control coach.

Nobody expects Vogt to be Terry Francona, obviously, and it should be noted that Francona himself had losing seasons in each of his first four years as the Phillies’ manager from 1997-2000 before beginning his much more distinguished runs in Boston and Cleveland.  Those four years in Philadelphia marked Francona’s last losing seasons until an 80-82 mark with Cleveland in 2021, and then last season’s 76-86 mark.

As that record would indicate, the Guardians were a flawed team last season, largely due to a stagnant offense that finished at or near the bottom of the league in most major hitting categories.  Unfortunately for Vogt, he heads into 2024 at the helm of what will largely be the same mix of everyday players, as the front office did strangely little in the way of pursuing upgrades.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff are no strangers to small payrolls, of course, so it wasn’t as if a big spending spree was ever in the cards.  But, as per RosterResource‘s projections, the Guardians are heading into 2024 with an estimated $96.5MM payroll — just a touch below their $97.75MM payroll from 2023.  Rather than significantly increase or decrease spending, the Guards mostly stood pat from a financial standpoint, perhaps immobilized by the status of their TV deal with the Diamond Sports Group.

It was almost exactly a year ago that DSG filed for bankruptcy, throwing into question the broadcasting contracts held between the corporation’s Bally Sports regional sports networks and 14 Major League teams.  The Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Reds, and Diamondbacks stood out within the group since DSG was paying those teams reduced rights fees for the 2023 season before a bankruptcy court ordered the restoration of those fees.  For Cleveland, Minnesota, and Texas, their TV contracts for 2024 weren’t settled until just this past February, with Diamond agreeing to continue airing games for each of the three teams on one-year deals.

Reports indicated that each club would be receiving at least 85% of what it had previously earned in its contracts with DSG, so the Guards’ $55MM figure from 2023 could now be reduced to $46.75MM for the coming year.  What happens beyond 2024 is anyone’s guess, as if DSG goes out of business entirely, the Guardians’ broadcasting and streaming rights could fall under the umbrella of Major League Baseball itself.

While the Guardians were far from the only team to halt spending in the wake of this still-unsettled broadcasting future, there were naturally a lot of different approaches taken amongst the many clubs who were associated with DSG.  Some of the affected teams, like the Royals and Reds, still spent in free agency.  The Twins turned to the trade market as their primary method of roster-building.  Cleveland didn’t really do much of anything.

There is some irony to the fact that a team starved for hitting made its biggest free agent investment in Austin Hedges, whose 52 wRC+ over the last nine seasons is the lowest of any hitter in baseball.  This isn’t to diminish Hedges’ status as an elite defensive catcher, and in a vacuum, it makes a lot of sense for the Guards to reunite with Hedges (who played in Cleveland from 2020-22) as a veteran backup and mentor for starting backstop Bo Naylor.  But the $4MM price tag for a backup catcher who offers so little at the plate seems rather steep for a club that seemingly had very little payroll room this winter.  The Guardians had also seemingly addressed the catching position at a lower cost by claiming Christian Bethancourt off waivers from the Rays in early November, but then pivoted to sign Hedges and trade Bethancourt to the Marlins on the same day.

Cleveland moved some money off the books by trading Cal Quantrill and his projected $6.6MM arbitration salary to the Rockies in November.  It was widely expected that Quantrill would be moved or simply just non-tendered after a rough 2023 campaign, due to both his escalating salary and the fact that the Guardians have a number of younger arms who stand out as better rotation candidates.

Some veteran depth was added to the pitching mix in the form of a low-cost deal with Ben Lively, and the Guardians’ list of minor league signings includes a familiar and beloved Cleveland name in Carlos Carrasco.  The righty is returning to Ohio after a three-year stint with the Mets that was mostly marred by injuries and under-performance, and the idea of Carrasco entering his age-37 season and chasing a revival with his old team is a fun Spring Training story to monitor.

Perhaps the biggest surprise surrounding the Guardians’ offseason is the fact that Shane Bieber is seemingly still going to be part of the roster.  Since Bieber is earning $13.125MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it was widely expected that he would be dealt before he reaches free agency, like so many pricier Cleveland players before him.  However, though such teams as the Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels were linked to Bieber’s market at various times this winter, a deal has yet to emerge.

This isn’t to say that a trade could still be arranged between now and Opening Day, since any number of things (like, say, an injury for the Yankees’ ace) could change the equation.  Still, Bieber’s market to date has been complicated by other pitchers available either via trade or free agency, as well as the more obvious red flags stemming from the former Cy Young winner’s 2023 season.  Bieber was more good than front-of-the-rotation great last year, and he also missed a large chunk of time recovering from elbow inflammation.  If the offers weren’t to Antonetti’s liking, a deadline deal might be more plausible, if Bieber re-establishes his value with a strong first half.

For now, Bieber remains the most experienced member of a rotation that includes Triston McKenzie looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued season, and the impressive sophomore trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.  Any of Carrasco, Lively, non-roster invitees Jaime Barria or Tyler Beede could be in the depth mix, as could in-house options like Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Joey Cantillo, or any other arms from Cleveland’s nonstop pipeline of young pitching.

The Guardians will also be running back mostly the same bullpen, except with the notable addition of Scott Barlow.  The former Royals reliever was acquired from the Padres in a swap of right-handers for Enyel De Los Santos, and this trade ended up as one of Cleveland’s most financially aggressive move of the offseason.  Barlow and the team avoided arbitration on a $6.7MM deal, giving him the third-highest salary of any Guards player for 2024 (after Jose Ramirez and Bieber).

In a recent piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Steve Adams described the Barlow trade as “a bizarre allocation of minimal resources….In De Los Santos, the Guardians traded a reliever with better bottom-line results (albeit in lower-leverage spots), comparable K-BB rates, about 17% the salary and three times as much club control as Barlow.”  I tend to agree with Steve’s analysis, though I’ll add that the deal makes a little more sense if viewed as a possible harbinger to an Emmanuel Clase trade.  The Guards were reportedly open to offers for their closer this winter, so it could be that the team wanted to have a pitcher like Barlow with past closing experience in the fold before deciding whether or not to move Clase elsewhere.  Of course, that deal never came together, and Clase is widely expected to open the season back in his familiar closing role.

Sticking with pitching, the Guardians felt Cody Morris was expendable enough to be dealt to the Yankees for an intriguing flier on a post-hype prospect.  Estevan Florial has only a .609 OPS over 134 Major League plate appearances, though those at-bats were spread out in sporadic fashion over the last four seasons.  New York never felt compelled to give Florial a longer look at the big league level, despite some past top-100 prospect pedigree, multiple injuries in the Yankees’ outfield, and Florial’s big numbers at Triple-A in 2022-23.

Needless to say, the Guardians could badly use an offensive boost in their outfield.  If Florial can have even a modest breakout to prove he belongs in the Show, he could immediately supplant either Myles Straw or Ramon Laureano for regular work on the grass.  As it stands, Florial’s left-handed bat makes him a natural platoon partner with Straw or Laureano, and Straw’s combination of superb defense and lackluster hitting makes him a better fit for fourth outfielder duty anyway.  Florial essentially replaces Oscar Gonzalez, who went from being the starting right fielder as a rookie in 2022 to being put on waivers (and claimed by the Yankees) this winter.

Corner infielder Deyvison De Los Santos could get a look as a bench piece due to his Rule 5 status, and the Guardians will otherwise determine their backup mix from a collection of in-house names.  The loser of the Brayan Rocchio/Gabriel Arias shortstop competition could start the season in the minors to amass more regular playing time, Tyler Freeman might stick in a super-utility role, and any of Will Brennan, Jhonkensy Noel, or Johnathan Rodriguez could be considered for backup outfield roles.

It can’t be ignored that Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, or even an old friend like Kole Calhoun could beef up this outfield picture, but even modestly-priced signings seem to be beyond Cleveland’s price range.  In terms of longer-term outfield promise, top prospect Chase DeLauter is making noise in Spring Training and could be part of the big league roster at some point in 2024, if probably not too early in the season.

Likewise with the DH position, the Guardians seem unwilling to splurge on a big bat like J.D. Martinez, as the position looks to be ticketed for rookie Kyle Manzardo.  Acquired from the Rays last season in the Aaron Civale trade, Manzardo is a top-100 prospect with loads of hitting potential, even if he brings little in the way of speed or first base defense.  Manzardo will pair with Josh Naylor in the first base/DH mix, and if Manzardo can show that he can play even passable defense, it might increase the chances of Naylor being dealt.  Naylor is a free agent after the 2025 season and drew some trade buzz this offseason as teams were checking on when or if the Guardians might move another increasingly expensive player.

It’s hard to ever rule out the Guardians given their ability to generate pitching, and between the young hitting talent on the rise, Ramirez’s superstar production, and some of the other interesting bats on hand, the lineup could also be better than it looks on paper.  In an AL Central division that lacks a powerhouse contender, this mix might be enough to get the Guards back into contention if a few things break right.  (And hey, maybe their surprise win in the draft lottery is a sign that Lady Luck is on their side.)  Even accounting for the apparent payroll freeze, however, Cleveland’s lack of major tinkering was curious, and might be viewed in hindsight as a missed opportunity depending on how 2024 plays out.

How would you grade the Guardians' offseason?

  • D 39% (705)
  • F 31% (561)
  • C 25% (455)
  • B 3% (63)
  • A 2% (28)

Total votes: 1,812

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

By | at March 13, 2024 4:15pm CDT

Raise your hand if you had the Royals being one of the top-five spenders in free agency on your offseason bingo card back in November. Kansas City is focused on improving in the here and now, and their offseason reflects that.

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $53MM
Total spend: $110.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Royals’ second season under general manager J.J. Picollo, who replaced longtime president of baseball operations Dayton Moore after his firing, took a markedly different tone than the first. Kansas City spent more money on one individual signing, right-hander Seth Lugo, than they had in the entire 2022-23 offseason. Lugo proved to be one of two notable additions to the rotation, joining righty Michael Wacha in what should be a far more competitive pitching staff than the Royals ran out in 2023.

Lugo and Wacha will largely replace outgoing franchise icon Zack Greinke and non-tendered righty Brad Keller, who combined for 36 starts last year (27 from Greinke, nine from Keller). They’ll join last year’s deadline prize Cole Ragans and returning right-hander Brady Singer in a Kansas City rotation that should be far, far more stable than the 2023 group. Last year, only four Royals — Greinke, Singer, Ragans and Jordan Lyles — even started more than nine games.

While Lugo and Wacha aren’t exactly aces, the Royals hope they’ve unearthed one in the 26-year-old Ragans, who starred for them following his acquisition in the Aroldis Chapman swap with Texas. Ragans’ 2.64 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 45.5% grounder rate have the look of a top-end starter. Lugo thrived in a move to the rotation in San Diego last season, notching a 3.57 ERA in 146 1/3 frames. Former and once-again teammate Wacha delivered a second straight solid season in San Diego and joins up with Lugo again. If the Royals can get something closer to the 2022 version of Singer (as opposed to the 2023 version), the rotation could be a strength. Lyles will eat innings in the fifth spot, but in-house names like Daniel Lynch IV and Alec Marsh could eventually push him for that spot.

Lugo and Wacha weren’t the only starters the Royals acquired, but they’re the only ones who’ll pitch for Kansas City in 2024. The Royals bought low on injured Braves right-hander Kyle Wright, shipping change-of-scenery candidate Jackson Kowar to Atlanta in order to pick him up — knowing full well that shoulder surgery will cost Wright the upcoming season. He will spend the year on the 60-day IL, but he has two remaining seasons of club control beyond the 2024 campaign. Adding him at the cost of a now twice-traded former first-rounder, Kowar, is a nice bit of long-term business for a team that has been plagued in the past by a lack of pitching depth.

Kansas City’s bullpen additions might not have generated as much attention but represented an even broader-reaching overhaul of the staff. Free agents Will Smith and Chris Stratton bring closing and setup experience — to say nothing of a pair of 2023 World Series rings — to the 2024 Royals. They cost a combined $13MM in guarantees, with Stratton coming aboard on a two-year deal with a surprising player option (more on that in a bit).

Right-hander Nick Anderson was a buy-low addition who has been dominant at times but rarely healthy. Righty John Schreiber had a big 2022 in Boston and took a step back in 2023 thanks largely to a spike in walk rate. But Schreiber misses bats at above-average levels, keeps the ball on the ground well and hadn’t struggled with his command prior to the 2023 season. Anderson is controllable through 2025 and cost only cash. Schreiber has three years of control and cost the Royals right-hander David Sandlin, a 2022 eleventh-round pick who’s significantly improved his prospect status since being selected.

Royals relievers in 2023 ranked 29th in the big leagues in terms of ERA and were 25th or worse in FIP and SIERA. Only two teams saw their bullpens walk relievers at a higher rate, and Kansas City’s 22.8% strikeout rate from the ‘pen was tied for 22nd in MLB. All of that includes a strong three months from the aforementioned Chapman in addition to contributions from Jose Cuas and Scott Barlow, both also moved at the deadline.

Generally speaking, it was a group that needed work, and the additions of Smith, Stratton, Anderson and Schreiber should go a long way toward helping the unit overall. The Royals will also hope that they struck gold on righty James McArthur, whom they acquired in a DFA trade with the Phillies last May. McArthur posted underwhelming numbers in both Philly and Kansas City … at least until a September call-up in which he fired off an incredible 16 1/3 innings of shutout relief with just five hits and no walks against 19 strikeouts. McArthur has also dominated in a small sample of 6 1/3 spring innings (one run) and is a clear name to watch for this team.

The additions on the position-player side of things were far more modest. Hunter Renfroe received a somewhat surprising two-year pact after a pedestrian showing with the Angels and a very rocky finish with the Reds. He’s a clear 20-homer bat who’ll add some needed punch to the K.C. lineup, but Renfroe’s once-elite defensive ratings and his power output have both dropped off recently. A move to Kauffman Stadium probably won’t help the latter, and his career .300 OBP (.297 in ’23) is a curious fit for a club that ranked 28th in the majors with a collective .303 OBP last season.

Adam Frazier joins Renfroe as something of a buy-low play on a veteran who’s seen better days. An All-Star with the Pirates, Frazier’s bat hasn’t been the same since being traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego at the 2021 trade deadline. He’s taken 1268 plate appearances with the Padres, Mariners and Orioles but mustered only a .244/.305/.345 slash in that time. Frazier’s $4.5MM guarantee with the Royals isn’t much by today’s standards, and his excellent bat-to-ball skills mesh with a Royals club that has tended to prioritize contact over power. Even during his rough stretch since that ’21 trade, Frazier has fanned at just a 12.9% clip. He won’t be the starter at second or in left field — that’ll be Michael Massey and MJ Melendez, respectively — but he gives the Royals some depth at both spots and a contact-oriented bat off the bench.

Speaking of the bench, that’s been overhauled as well. Gone are Samad Taylor, Edward Olivares and Matt Duffy, among others. Frazier will join superutility man Garrett Hampson as a free-agent pickup for the bench. Hampson posted roughly average offensive numbers in Miami last season — well ahead of his previously middling career marks — and can play just about anywhere on the field. He’s not an elite defender at any one spot and is a candidate to regress with the bat (.379 BABIP, 26.6% strikeout rate), but the Royals love speed and Hampson clocked into the 98th percentile of MLB players in sprint speed last year, per Statcast.

Kansas City also picked up Austin Nola on a cheap one-year deal late in the offseason after the Padres cut him loose. He has a minor league option remaining and could thus be ticketed for Triple-A, but Nola has experience playing multiple infield positions in addition to catcher and the Royals have considered carrying him along with both Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin on the roster. Perez is better suited as a DH at this point but still figures to catch his share of games. If the Royals choose to carry all three, Nola gives them a viable backup on days they want to DH Perez and start the defensively superior Fermin behind the dish. If they don’t, he’ll give them an experienced backup option in Omaha.

The biggest piece of business for the Royals, however, was their franchise-record-shattering extension for shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The $288.777MM deal more than tripled Perez’s $82MM pact, which had stood as the previous high-water mark for the franchise. Witt improved across the board as a sophomore in his age-23 season, with gains in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate, power output, defensive grades, exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He finished the season one steal shy of the exceptionally rare 30-homer, 50-stolen base campaign.

Royals fans have legitimate cause to celebrate Witt’s extension, though it’s perhaps not the career-long commitment to the franchise most would believe at first glance. The opt-out provision after the contract’s seventh season has a strong chance to be exercised, at least if the two parties don’t revisit his contract status closer to that decision point. After the 2030 season, Witt will be guaranteed (ahem) “just” four years and an additional $140MM as he enters his age-31 season. It’d be an easy call for a player with his ability to trigger that opt out even in 2024, and salaries in MLB will presumably only have moved forward further by that point. The two parties could always look to renegotiate a longer pact at that point — one that decisively keeps Witt in Kansas City for his entire career.

Even if they don’t do so and Witt eventually takes the opt-out route, there’s still plenty to be happy about for the Royals. It’s true that the opt-out and enormous guarantee create more injury downside than legitimate contractual upside for the Royals, but that was the cost of buying out at least three prime-aged free-agent seasons on a 23-year-old superstar who looks likely to be a bona fide MVP candidate multiple times over the seven seasons in which the Royals have complete control over him.

Opt-outs were a common theme for the Royals this winter, not only in their extension with Witt but in nearly every free agent contract they doled out. Lugo can opt out after the 2025 season. Each of Wacha, Renfroe and even Stratton gains the ability to opt out after the upcoming season. Not long ago, opt-out clauses were generally reserved for the game’s elite free agents, but the Royals joined a growing number of smaller and mid-market teams that have used them as leverage to lure second- or even third-tier free agents. Stratton securing a 2025 player option as a 33-year-old reliever who averages just over 93 mph on his heater and has narrowly kept his ERA under 4.00 over the past four seasons was particularly surprising.

For the Royals, the opt-out provisions may have been something of a necessary evil, though. Free agents tend to want to sign in winning situations, and the team lost a whopping 106 games during the 2023 campaign. Even when offering multi-year deals, the Royals’ recent run of futility in the AL Central — one of baseball’s weakest divisions — is a tough sell to free agents who have a decent market. Offering the leverage of a competitive year-one salary with the allure of a return to the market next winter if things go well is a strong sweetener — one at which many clubs would likely balk.

There’s real downside to the gambit. If Wacha were to sustain a major injury or regress to his 2019-21 form, for instance, a team with the Royals’ typically modest payroll would be on the hook for a significant sum. The Padres gave Wacha a series of opt-outs when signing him last offseason, but that was effectively a mechanism to duck the luxury tax. Wacha was guaranteed $26MM on his “four-year” deal but was never likely to trigger a series of $6.5MM player options. In essence, the player options just tamped down the contract’s AAV because they’re considered guaranteed money.

The Royals’ series of opt-outs is far different; they’re guaranteeing market-rate salaries and pairing that with immediate opportunities to return to the market (or, in Lugo’s case, an opportunity two years down the line). If any of Wacha, Stratton or Renfroe exercise that player option, it’ll be because the 2024 results weren’t there, and that’ll be a notable and likely unwanted salary on the books for the 2025 Royals.

It’s a gamble the Royals probably prefer not to make but one that might have been necessary to bring about this type of change in a single offseason. And, make no mistake about it, this is an unequivocally improved and deepened Royals roster. The question is whether they’ve done enough to earnestly contend. A full season of Ragans could go a long way toward improving the outlook, if he can sustain his post-trade breakout. Ditto McArthur, though his success was in an even smaller sample. The rest of the Royals’ pickups were largely focused on raising the floor, but few come with star-caliber upside.

Any such improvements will need to come internally. A fully healthy, breakout season from first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino seems plausible. Nelson Velazquez won’t keep homering at the pace he did in ’23 (14 homers in 147 plate appearances), but he makes gobs of hard contact and looked like a potential middle-of-the-order bat after coming over from the Cubs. The Royals will need similar strides from Melendez, Massey and/or first baseman/DH Nick Pratto if they’re to gain the necessary ground to compete for a postseason berth. They finished 31 games back of the Twins and 33 games out of a Wild Card spot in 2023, and the AL Central has only seen the Tigers get better.

There’s no doubt the Royals are better, but even with so many additions, they could face an uphill battle as they look for not only their first trip to the playoffs since winning the 2015 World Series — but their first winning season since that fateful year.

How would you grade the Royals' offseason?

  • B 53% (1,211)
  • A 25% (576)
  • C 15% (354)
  • D 4% (91)
  • F 2% (57)

Total votes: 2,289

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

By | at March 12, 2024 9:59pm CDT

The Nationals are entering the third full season of their rebuild, and their lackluster offseason was emblematic of a team more focused on the long-term picture than even feigning an attempt at competing in 2024.

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $9.25MM
Total spend: $9.25MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.3MM club option on CF Victor Robles (Robles was arbitration-eligible and remains with the team after agreeing to a lower-cost one-year deal)

Trades and Waiver Claims

  • Selected SS Nasim Nunez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Nationals lost 91 games last season and entered the offseason with a fairly modest $110MM committed to the 2024 roster. With ample room to add starting pitching and players at various positions around the diamond, the stage looked to be set for some offseason dealings. General manager Mike Rizzo seemed to suggest as much early at last year’s Winter Meetings.

“We’ve got several holes to fill,” the veteran general manager said. “We’ve got our work cut out for us this year, and I think we’re going to take our aggressive approach when it suits us and wait for the market when it suits us. I think we’re going to be busy here. … I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those. And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching.”

Rizzo went on to indicate that he’d be comfortable offering multiple years to free agents “in the right situation.” It was an encouraging slate of comments for Nats fans who have been tracking a series of ballyhooed prospects throughout the current rebuild and looked to the 2024 season as a year that could see the team begin to turn the corner.

Fast forward several months, however, and many of those claims ring hollow. The Nationals spent under $10MM in free agency, didn’t make a single trade and, despite having the No. 5 waiver priority in baseball, didn’t place a claim on a single player all offseason.

Washington did indeed add some corner bats, as Rizzo alluded to, but the impact of those acquisitions doesn’t look to be particularly high. For the second straight season, the Nats bought low on a non-tendered former top prospect to take over at third base. Unlike Jeimer Candelario, however, Nick Senzel isn’t simply coming off one down season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick has never had an average offensive season in parts of five MLB campaigns. He’s a career .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than average, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly home park in which Senzel has spent his entire career to date (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park).

Health has been a major roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured list seven times in his big league career (to say nothing of multiple notable injuries from his prospect days). If the Nats can finally get Senzel healthy, he’d hardly be the first former top prospect to thrive in a change of scenery. He’s still just 28 years old, and the Nats will only owe him a $2MM salary this season. If he performs well, he’ll be a viable trade deadline chip but also could be a multi-year piece for Washington. Because he’s three weeks shy of five full years of MLB service, Senzel will be controllable through 2025 via arbitration.

The Nationals have already said that Senzel will be the team’s primary third baseman, which displaces their own in-house former top prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of options and now ostensibly looking at a bench role. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — perhaps even following a DFA. It’s understandable that the Nats feel ready to move on from Kieboom after myriad injuries and parts of four unproductive big league seasons — but it’s at least a bit surprising that they’re doing so in favor of a player with a very similar career trajectory to date.

Across the diamond, it appears Joey Gallo will get another opportunity to try to recapture the Rangers form that’s increasingly becoming a distant memory. He’s still just 30 years old, but Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees back in 2021. The slugger belted 110 home runs in just 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, including a pair of 40-tater seasons, but since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s still walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for plenty of power, but his already problematic strikeout rate has ballooned to 40.5% in a significant sample of 970 plate appearances.

Gallo won’t cost the Nationals much, but at this point he’s two and a half seasons removed from being a productive hitter. If he goes on a huge first-half run, he could build up some trade value, but even if he’s hitting reasonably well, he’ll be viewed as a volatile rental whose ’21-’23 track record makes it tough for a team to surrender much of note in a trade.

The remainder of the lineup is largely set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an ugly .300 OBP last season but saw his strikeout and walk rates improve in the season’s second half. He’s also one of baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 bags in 51 tries, and quietly connected on 18 home runs last year. There’s legitimate breakout potential for him this season if he can continue to build on last year’s second-half gains in his K/BB profile.

On the other side of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his role as Washington’s everyday second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break year of sorts. The 23-year-old was one of the sport’s top infield prospects before making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and while he’s shown off the premium bat-to-ball skills that helped him garner praise (12.4% strikeout rate in ’23), he hasn’t done much else. Last year’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is right in line with his career .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender thus far and hasn’t hit for power or provided baserunning value. He’s young enough to take another step forward, but if it doesn’t happen in what’ll be his fifth season with big league playing time, the Nats might have to look elsewhere for a long-term answer.

Then again, one need only look to center field to show the organization’s patience with homegrown talents. Victor Robles will be back for an eighth season despite not showing much since a promising start to his career. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the top 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium defense. Dating back to 2020, however, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in nearly 1100 plate appearances. Back problems limited him to 36 games last year, and his typically excellent defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market offered some affordable alternatives (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, old friend Michael A. Taylor), but the Nats opted to stick with Robles, who’ll reach six years of service in ’24 and become a free agent next winter. If he’s healthy and performing even reasonably well this summer, he’ll be a trade candidate.

In right field, the Nats will again give Lane Thomas everyday at-bats and hope he can build on last year’s .268/.315/.468 showing. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 bags and played a fine right field. He’s only controlled through 2025 and was the subject of plenty of trade chatter last summer. That’ll likely be the case again come July.

Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will again serve as the primary catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in just 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term under an eight-year extension.

Joey Meneses is likely to open the season as the Nats’ primary designated hitter, but some of the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in just 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He saw nearly triple the at-bats in ’23 but still hit just 13 homers with an overall .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only player, that won’t cut it moving forward.

Left field is the only real spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league deals to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step up to fill that spot. Rosario is the more capable defender and is coming off a better 2023 showing. Winker, at his peak, was the more productive of the two — at least against right-handed pitching. Neither will cost much if they make the roster. It’s unlikely either will return much in a potential deadline swap, even if they’re performing well, but the pair of veterans gives the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wood, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.

On the pitching side of the roster, the Nats will effectively roll out the same staff that produced some of the worst results in the game last year. Zach Davies, another minor league signee, is the only addition of note. The Nats have plenty of payroll space but will eschew even modestly priced upgrades in the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, both of whom remain unsigned.

That will pave the way for a group of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to lead the team in starts again, pending any contributions from Davies and top prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll eventually return from 2023 Tommy John surgery — likely on a limited workload. Washington is lacking in top-end pitching prospects beyond Cavalli, though names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker could factor into the rotation at some point.

The hope will be that Gray, Gore and Cavalli can all take meaningful steps forward, but there’s reason to express skepticism despite the former top prospect pedigree of each. Gray has never walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and last year’s 20.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He finally managed to somewhat curb his highest-in-MLB home run rate (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), but he did so at the expense of strikeouts and more free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) but missed bats at a strong level and did reach a new career-high innings total (136 1/3). Cavalli was viewed by some scouts as a future reliever before he had Tommy John surgery, and he’ll now be under a tightly managed workload.

Despite Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing to add pitching help and being willing to make multi-year offers in the right setting, he changed his tune dramatically just a couple months later: “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said in mid-February.

It’s a puzzling statement when each of Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for under $10MM, in the case of Wood, Junis and Perez). Each of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year deals with prices that would’ve kept the Nationals’ payroll in the $140MM range, if not a bit lower. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and were at $135MM or more in each season from 2014-22.

It’s a similar story in the bullpen, where myriad arms signed short-term deals that the Nationals could accommodate. The Nats’ only pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a nice track record but struggled in ’23 while battling a wildly unfortunate .401 average on balls in play despite better-than-average hard contact numbers. Floro is a perfectly sensible pickup, possibly even a bargain, but the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s surprising he was the only one.

Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all controlled only through 2025 — Washington will have plenty of relievers to peddle this summer. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier could work their way into that group after signing minor league deals. Another one-year pickup could’ve given them another, though, and while the return on such investments is rarely of note, the Nats clearly had the payroll capacity to at least take a shot.

Perhaps the general dearth of activity stems from uncertainty regarding the future of the team. The Lerner family was reportedly exploring a sale of the club for the past couple seasons before announcing in late February that those efforts were being halted. It’s plenty feasible that current ownership handcuffed Rizzo and his staff in fairly significant fashion this winter, not wanting to take on long-term commitments while exploring a sale of the team. Rizzo, the rest of the front office, and ownership would never publicly state as much, but it’s fair to wonder given the minimal payroll outlay and the number of areas on the roster that remain ripe for an upgrade.

Regardless of the reasoning, the results are what they are. The 2024 season looks like another bleak year for Nats fans, one plagued by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive production. But the ongoing rebuild could begin to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a more interesting ’25 campaign. Wood and Crews will likely be in the majors by then. Corbin will be off the books. Cavalli could be both healthy and largely free of an innings cap. And the Nats only have $43MM on that year’s payroll, perhaps setting the stage for a more aggressive run through free agency following the 2024 campaign. That’s shaping up to be a deep free agent class, headlined by old friend Juan Soto in addition to Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — among many others. This offseason was as quiet as they come, but next winter could be more interesting.

How would you grade the Nationals' offseason?

  • D 40% (778)
  • F 31% (602)
  • C 22% (423)
  • B 6% (112)
  • A 3% (52)

Total votes: 1,967

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2023-24 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

By | at March 12, 2024 3:40pm CDT

The rebuilding A’s made only a few moves to address their big league roster, as much of the offseason news continued to focus on the club’s impending departure from Oakland.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $13MM
Total spending: $13MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

A long and twisted series of events that leads to finding a green armadillo in Las Vegas might sound like the plot of another Hangover sequel, yet it could also describe the Athletics’ relocation efforts.  MLB owners gave unanimous approval in November to the franchise’s plan to relocate, and the team recently released some eye-popping renderings of their proposed “spherical armadillo” ballpark on the Strip, which is planned to open for the start of the 2028 season.

Much has yet to be settled until then, including the rather important detail of where exactly the A’s will be playing during the 2025-27 seasons.  Next year’s edition of the Offseason In Review could be devoted to the Salt Lake City Athletics or the Sacramento Athletics, as the Athletics have been exploring alternate cities as their short-term home.  Since NBC Sports California could opt out of its broadcast contract with the A’s if the club moves out of the Bay Area, the team’s first option is to extend its lease at the Coliseum beyond its current end date following the 2024 season, yet the city of Oakland is (unsurprisingly) not too enthused about continuing the relationship.  At least, not without possibly trying to negotiate a new expansion team out of the league in exchange for letting the Athletics temporarily stay put.

Even the Vegas end of the move isn’t exactly solidified.  The league is pushing so hard for the Athletics’ relocation that it doesn’t seem likely that the move would fall apart altogether, though questions remain — a Nevada teachers’ union has filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s funding law that earmarked $380MM in public money towards the ballpark, the overall uncertainty about the new stadium’s financing and construction plans, and the fact that Las Vegas citizens seem mixed at best about the A’s coming to town.

Between all these factors and the Oakland fans’ open disdain towards owner John Fisher, it seems like several more years of awkwardness are in store before things start to turn for the Athletics organization.  Finding a silver lining in the on-field product seems like a longshot, given how the A’s have gone 110-214 over the last two seasons and seem destined for another triple-digit showing in the loss column in 2024.

Given how the Athletics have already dealt most of their prominent (and most expensive) veterans, GM David Forst didn’t do much in the way of continuing the fire sale this winter.  Forst said during the Winter Meetings that Aledmys Diaz, Seth Brown, Paul Blackburn weren’t likely to be traded, and while it can be assumed that the A’s are always listening to trade offers, the team still needs players on the roster.  And, some stronger performances from any of these more experienced names in the first half of the 2024 campaign could well bolster their trade value heading into the deadline.  Blackburn might be a key name to watch in this regard, since he is a free agent after the 2025 season and teams are forever looking to add pitching.

The rotation was a need for the A’s themselves this winter, resulting in a couple of familiar Bay Area names joining the club.  Alex Wood signed in free agency after spending the last three years with the Giants, and the A’s also lined up with the Giants on a rare trade between the local rivals in order to bring Ross Stripling to Oakland.  These two moves represent the Athletics’ biggest expenditures of the offseason, as Wood will earn $8.5MM on a one-year deal, and the A’s are covering $9MM of the $12.5MM owed to Stripling on the final year of his contract.

Neither veteran was too pleased about their usage within the Giants’ patchwork pitching tactics, but Wood and Stripling will get plenty of opportunity to work as full-time starters in Oakland.  Wood started 12 of 29 games in 2023, working as a swingman, bulk pitcher behind an opener, or in a piggyback capacity while posting a 4.33 ERA over 97 2/3 innings.  Wood’s traditionally solid strikeout and walk rates both plummeted to well below the league average last year, though it could be argued that his ever-shifting roles (and five weeks missed due to a pair of stints on the injured list) might’ve contributed to these struggles.

Stripling had an even tougher time of things with a 5.36 ERA over 89 innings, and injuries and a hybrid rotation/bullpen deployment were also a story of his season.  The right-hander did pitch better as the season went on, however, which could hint that he might have a smoother time of things in a more stable capacity as a starting pitcher.

Returning to trade deadline possibilities, a return to form for either Wood or Stripling will surely make them prime candidates to change uniforms at midseason, which could open up rotation jobs for some of the Athletics’ younger arms.  Some of this group (Joe Boyle, Kyle Muller, and Rule 5 Draft pick Mitch Spence) are already competing for the fifth starter’s role, which is open since both Luis Medina and Ken Waldichuk will begin the season on the injured list.  It remains to be seen when exactly either hurler might be back on the mound, underscoring the Athletics’ reasoning for acquiring experienced arms like Wood and Stripling.

Experience was also the watchword for the Athletics’ bullpen additions.  Of the seven pitchers who made the most appearances for Oakland in 2023, only Lucas Erceg is still with the team, so some veteran help was needed for a relief corps that is thin on Major League innings.  Trevor Gott and Scott Alexander signed low-cost one-year deals and might have hidden-gem potential, since both righties outperformed their ERAs last season.  Gott had a 4.19 ERA over 58 innings with the Mariners and Mets while not receiving any BABIP (.343) luck, while Alexander’s 3.75 SIERA was well below his 4.66 ERA in 48 1/3 innings for San Francisco.  A .325 BABIP was particularly harmful to an extreme groundball pitcher like Alexander, whose numbers might normalize if he gets better fortune with balls in play.

Gott and Alexander figure to work in setup roles no matter who (if anyone) winds up as the Athletics’ full-time closer.  Top prospect Mason Miller is making a bid for the job with a very impressive Spring Training performance, as the A’s are keeping Miller in the bullpen this year as a way of easing him back to action after a long string of injuries.  Erceg or Dany Jimenez could also be in the ninth inning mix.

The A’s mostly stood pat on the position-player side, though Tony Kemp (who signed with the Reds) was a notable departure after four seasons in Oakland.  The newly-acquired Abraham Toro is something of a replacement for both Kemp and Kevin Smith, as Toro has experience at first base, second base, and third base, and can step into the corner outfield in a pinch.  Third base figures to be Toro’s most steady position, and Toro and Diaz figure to share the hot corner until prospect Darell Hernaiz makes his expected Major League debut this season.

Zack Gelof, Nick Allen, and Ryan Noda should form the rest of the starting infield, with Brent Rooker as the primary DH and one of Shea Langeliers or Tyler Soderstrom behind the plate.  Brown, JJ Bleday, and speedster Esteury Ruiz are the projected starting outfielders, with rookie Lawrence Butler looking for a larger role and former Athletic Stephen Piscotty back on a minor league deal and looking to get back to the majors after spending 2023 in the White Sox farm system.  Miguel Andujar is an interesting wild card on the roster, as the former Yankees star prospect is looking for a fresh start after being claimed off waivers from the Pirates, and he hit well after a September call-up with the Pirates last season.

It isn’t the most inspiring lineup on paper, which is why the A’s will be hard-pressed to avoid the AL West basement.  There is some talent here, however, as Noda, Rooker, and the rookie Gelof all delivered well above-average production in 2023.  Gelof’s 133 wRC+ (from a .267/.337/.504 slash line and 14 homers) came over just 300 plate appearances, though it was enough to make the second baseman look like a potential building block for an A’s team in desperate need of some true cornerstones.

A rebuilding team is only going to spend so much on veteran players anyway, yet the Athletics’ projected payroll is the lowest in baseball by a substantial margin.  As per RosterResource’s projections, the A’s currently have only $59.3MM on the books for 2024 — well behind the $82MM in slated spending for the Pirates, who rank 29th of the 30 teams.

Fisher has been adverse to spending even when the A’s were fielding contenders, yet even beyond the lack of available money, Forst’s attempts to add any reinforcements were naturally complicated by all of the negativity surrounding the Athletics’ forthcoming move.  For players who had leverage in determining their next team, there wasn’t much interest in joining a franchise entering a lame-duck season in front of a fanbase that is understandably hostile towards the organization.  It perhaps isn’t surprising that so many of the Athletics’ additions this winter have prior experience playing for the Giants if not the A’s themselves, so the new faces are at least familiar with the Bay Area and the unusual situation facing the Athletics this coming season.

If the Athletics’ 57th season in Oakland will indeed be their last, it is probably going to be an inauspicious ending to a history that includes the “Swingin’ A’s” powerhouse teams of the 1970s, Rickey Henderson and the Bash Brothers in the late ’80s, and the Moneyball underdogs of the last two decades.  The focus will be on letting the kids play and hopefully building some momentum in the rebuild towards 2025 and beyond, no matter where the team ends up playing.

How would you grade the Athletics' offseason?

  • F 45% (937)
  • D 27% (569)
  • C 19% (394)
  • B 5% (110)
  • A 3% (70)

Total votes: 2,080

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Athletics MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By | at March 11, 2024 4:15pm CDT

The Cardinals are looking to prove that last year was a fluke. They bolstered their pitching staff to help them bounce back in 2024, but did they do enough?

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $42MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

It’s very rare for the Cardinals to go into an offseason on the heels of a massive disappointment. In this millennium, they have missed the playoffs eight times and only twice finished below .500. Last year was one of those two, as they went 71-91 and finished fifth in the National League Central for the first time ever.

The rotation was a clear target area for change, as the club’s starters posted a collective 5.08 earned run average last year, a mark better than just four other clubs. Three spots were opened by last year’s trades of impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as well as the retirement of Adam Wainwright.

There were rumors that the club may use its position player surplus to swing a trade that would upgrade the rotation, but they instead jumped in the free agent market early. By the end of November, they had already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

Whether that was the best way to go about upgrading the rotation is a matter of debate, especially with the club having also been connected to exciting names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow at times this winter. Lynn will turn 37 years old this year and is coming off a rough campaign in 2023. He posted a 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers while allowing 44 home runs, plus another four long balls in his one postseason start. Gibson has been a fairly reliable innings eater but doesn’t have much upside at this point in his career. He’s now 36 and finished each of the past two seasons with an ERA near 5.00.

Gray is the most exciting of their pickups, as he just finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting after a 2.79 ERA season with the Twins. But there’s some downside risk with Gray as well, as the Cards may have made a proverbial buy-high move. Gray’s 184 innings in 2023 were his highest tally since 2015, as he has had various injuries to deal with over the years. He’s now 34 years old and already going into 2024 with a health concern, battling a hamstring strain that’s left him questionable for Opening Day.

Some fans wanted the club to continue adding to the rotation, especially with Steven Matz having struggled so much since signing a four-year deal in St. Louis. The club’s interest in Cease reportedly lingered even after making those three signings, but nothing came together. That leaves Matz still a part of the projected rotation, especially with Gray’s injury, and the Cards hoping for a bounce back.

The much-discussed position player surplus didn’t end up factoring into the rotation, but it did affect the pitching staff in other ways. There was rumored interest in players like Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson, but the Cards instead flipped Tyler O’Neill as their biggest trade this winter. O’Neill, who is an impending free agent and previously clashed with manager Oliver Marmol, was flipped to Boston for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Robertson should be able to help the club’s bullpen right away, as he already has 22 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Santos adds some non-roster depth for the rotation, but he missed all of 2023 due to injury and has fewer than 45 Triple-A innings on his ledger.

The club made another move that sent out a position player for a reliever, as Richie Palacios was flipped to the Rays and Andrew Kittredge. It may have been underwhelming for some fans as Kittredge is turning 34, missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and is a mere rental. But Kittredge was utterly dominant in 2021 and the Cards had just grabbed Palacios off the DFA pile in June.

The bullpen was padded in other ways, as Middleton was brought aboard on a one-year, $6MM deal in free agency after a resurgent showing in 2023. The Cards also grabbed Riley O’Brien in a small trade and selected Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft.

On the position player side of things, very little has changed from last year, apart from those moves. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will still be the anchors at the infield corners. The big question is the shortstop position, as the Paul DeJong era is now over. The club is hoping top prospect Masyn Winn is the shortstop of the future, but he’s just about to turn 22 years old and hit only .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, since his .196 batting average on balls in play in that time was well below league average. He also posted a solid slash line of .288/.359/.474 in Triple-A last year.

The club has plenty of faith that he can post better results in a larger sample of work, but they also added a bit of insurance. Long-time Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was signed to a modest one-year deal, though Crawford and the club’s decision makers made it clear that Winn is the starter. Crawford is merely around to offer guidance from his years of experience, and to serve as a safety net in the event of an injury or perhaps Winn not securing the job as hoped.

Winn’s emergence pushed Tommy Edman to center field, which is partially what caused such a logjam on the grass and led to the O’Neill and Palacios trades. On paper, Edman was going to be in center, flanked by Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, with Carlson, Burleson and Donovan also in the mix for playing time. Those plans are currently on hold, as both Edman and Nootbaar are questionable for Opening Day due to injuries, though that will hopefully just be a short-term situation.

The club also hopes to have bolstered its bench by bringing in old friend Matt Carpenter. His 2022 renaissance didn’t continue into 2023, so San Diego traded him to Atlanta in a salary-dumping deal. Atlanta took on Carpenter’s salary to get lefty Ray Kerr, then promptly released Carpenter. That freed him up to return to St. Louis, with the Cards only having to pay the prorated league minimum for any time he’s on the roster. If he can have yet another renaissance, they will have found lightning in a bottle. If not, they can move on without really having lost much of anything beyond the opportunity cost.

Though the club is making an earnest effort to return to contention in 2024, they also did little to commit themselves beyond this year. Other than Gray, all of their signings were one-year deals. They have some interest in extending Paul Goldschmidt, though president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said they may kick those talks into the season until they see how things are going.

“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts. You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.

Goldschmidt is an impending free agent and will turn 37 during the upcoming season. The club obviously likes to keep franchise legends around, with Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Wainwright all running out the clock in St. Louis in recent years. But with Goldschmidt, perhaps the club wants to wait and see if their planned bounceback season actually comes to fruition before they start committing future dollars. If they fall back again, Goldschmidt could be one of the best rental bats available at the summer deadline. They may want to keep that door open.

What also may be an issue is the club’s TV revenue uncertainty. The Cards are one of the clubs who is under contract with Diamond Sports Group, who once seemed like they were going to cease operations after 2024. The company has managed to stay afloat for now by selling some streaming rights to Amazon, but it’s still unclear how viable their long-term plan is. The Cards get over $70MM per year from Diamond and may want closure on that situation before making big decisions about the future.

In the end, it amounts to a half-in, half-out offseason. They made one splashy move by signing Gray but otherwise kept various long-term paths open. Are they good enough to compete this year? How much TV money is coming in? Will they keep Goldschmidt around or pivot to a post-Goldy era?

There’s a lot that needs to be revealed this year, but for now, the club patched their biggest holes. That may be enough in the NL Central, where there’s no clear frontrunner and it’s arguable that each of the five teams are in position to potentially surge ahead. Though the signings of Lynn and Gibson weren’t as sexy as getting someone like Cease or Yamamoto, both FanGraphs and PECOTA think the Cards are now the best team in the division, so maybe a couple of floor-raising moves and some bouncebacks will be enough to take the Central in the end.

How would you grade the Cardinals' offseason?

  • C 48% (2,130)
  • B 23% (1,010)
  • D 20% (894)
  • F 7% (302)
  • A 2% (103)

Total votes: 4,439

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