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Free Agent Faceoff: Adam Duvall/Tommy Pham

By | at March 9, 2024 9:32pm CDT

The Dodgers and Padres are set to kick off the regular season with the Korea Series in Seoul less than two weeks from today, and MLB’s 28 other clubs will follow suit the week afterwards. At this late stage of Spring Training, it’s rare for free agents of particular note to remain available on the market, but a handful of quality players linger on the open market nonetheless. That group is led by front-of-the-rotation southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though there’s a crop of interesting lower-level pieces available as well, ranging from veteran slugger J.D. Martinez to right-handed hurler Michael Lorenzen.

While the market is deepest in starting pitching at this point in the winter, there’s one other position where teams with a need will find a number of options worth consideration still available: the outfield. Michael A. Taylor is generally regarded as the best player remaining on the market in that group due to his superlative center field defense and a strong platform season in Minnesota that saw him slug a career-best 21 home runs. With that being said, a pair of veteran bats also remain available for teams hoping to add a bit more pop to their lineup or bench mix at this late stage in the offseason: Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham. The pair are both right-handed hitting outfielders with ten seasons of MLB experience under their belt across a combined ten different clubs. The duo also both took one-year deals last winter following a down 2022 season before bouncing back in 2023 to post above-average production at the plate, and are only five months apart in age.

Similar as they are, there are some key differences between the two. Pham has been the much more consistent regular of the two throughout his career, with his 481 trips to the plate in 2023 being his lowest figure in a 162-game season since he became a full-time player in 2017. Duvall, by contrast, has reached 450 plate appearances in a season just three times in his career, most recently during the 2021 season. In addition to having more experience under his belt, Pham has been the better hitter overall for his career with a triple slash of .259/.351/.435 (116 wRC+) as opposed to Duvall’s career .232/.291/.472 (98 wRC+) slash line. The difference in the pair’s career numbers is particularly noticeable against southpaws, whom Pham has posted an .834 OPS against for his career compared to Duvall’s .770 OPS against.

While availability on the field and career numbers seem to clearly favor Pham, Duvall isn’t without advantages of his own. Despite the disparity in career numbers, he’s actually been a slightly superior hitter in recent years, with a .231/.288/.487 slash line that translates to a 104 wRC+ since the start of the 2020 season. Over that same time period, Pham has slashed just .238/.325/.392 with a 99 wRC+. In addition to the slightly stronger offensive production in recent seasons, Duvall also offers the ability to play center field, with 1,070 2/3 innings of work at the position over the past three seasons. By contrast, Pham has stuck almost entirely to the outfield corners during that same time frame, starting just 14 games in center since the start of the 2021 season. While Duvall’s glove in center has generally been panned by defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -4 OAA in 2023), the ability to handle the position is surely notable for clubs that value positional flexibility or have a need in center.

While Duvall has been the slightly better offensive player in recent years, his lead over Pham in that regard is hardly commanding. Strong as Duvall’s recent offensive performance has been, his low on-base percentages and 31.5% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season leave him reliant on power output for his production at the plate. That’s suited him just fine, as he’s slugged a combined 71 homers over the last three years including a whopping 38 as a full-time regular during the 2021 season. Even so, it’s certainly fair to wonder if teams in search of a regular fixture in their outfield mix would prefer Pham’s more consistent production and stronger plate discipline, with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a strong 10.9% walk rate over the past three seasons in spite of his paltry .158 ISO over that same period.

Advanced metrics certainly look more fondly on Pham’s approach, as evidenced by Pham’s .361 xwOBA in 2023 which not only outstrips his relatively pedestrian .332 wOBA, but also Duvall’s .347 figure. By contrast, Duvall’s xwOBA last season left something to be desired as he posted a figure of just .306. That disparity between Duvall’s strong results and iffy peripheral numbers can be explained in part by his torrid start to the season that saw him slug ten extra-base hits in just eight games, and his relatively pedestrian numbers afterwards that saw him post a wRC+ of just 93 following his return from injury. While it’s certainly possible that Duvall’s wrist injury sapped some of his power upon his return to the field, it’s also worth noting that Duvall’s post-injury numbers are fairly similar to his 2022 performance, where he posted a lackluster 87 wRC+ with peripheral numbers to match.

Given the pair’s number of similarities, the choice between the two players could simply come down to fit on their hypothetical new club for many teams. Organizations looking to bring in a potential regular may be more likely to choose Pham thanks to his track record as an everyday player and more reliable approach at the plate. That being said, a team looking for a contributor off the bench could be more drawn to Duvall’s recent experience at all three outfield spots and his titanic power which can allow him to change the game with a single swing. If your team was to add one of the two veterans to its outfield mix ahead of Opening Day, who would you rather have?

Which Outfielder Would You Rather Have For 2024?

  • Adam Duvall 59% (2,382)
  • Tommy Pham 41% (1,666)

Total votes: 4,048

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Free Agent Faceoff MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By | at March 8, 2024 9:30am CDT

After a disastrous 2023 season, there have been a lot of changes for the Mets. They have a new president of baseball operations, a new manager and plenty of new faces on the roster. With 2024 planned on being a sort of bridge year, the offseason moves ended up staying on the modest side, though there were many of them.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $55.65MM
Total spending: $69.15MM

* Adams’ salary courtesy of the Associated Press

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

What a difference a year can make. Last winter, the Mets re-signed Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz to huge deals and added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to their pitching staff, which had them opening 2023 with World Series aspirations. But a series of injuries saw them fall out of contention quickly, which led to a deadline selloff that sent Verlander, Max Scherzer and others packing.

Scherzer had no-trade protection but said after the deal that he was told by the front office that 2024 was going to be something of a transitional year. With the club looking to do a sort of reboot, he decided to take the opportunity to head elsewhere and was able to win a World Series in Texas.

As the Mets became focused on changes, they started at the top of their baseball operations department. David Stearns was hired to be president of baseball operations, a move that had been anticipated for years. Stearns is a New York native who grew up a Mets fan and he stepped down to a lesser role in his final year with the Brewers. That seemed to pave the way for him to jump to the Mets, which came to fruition in October.

General manager Billy Eppler was initially expected to stay on and work under Stearns but he later stepped down. It was revealed that Eppler was under investigation for misuse of the injured list and he didn’t want to be a distraction as that played out. MLB eventually announced that Eppler will be placed on the ineligible list for the entire 2024 season. The Mets have not replaced him to this point, with Stearns atop the decision-making pyramid and several assistant general managers and others helping him out.

Change in the dugout was also on the menu, as one of Stearns’ first moves was to fire manager Buck Showalter. The Mets were connected to the high-profile Craig Counsell drama, which made some sense since Counsell was looking to push managerial salaries as high as possible and Mets’ owner Steve Cohen is famously not shy about spending. Counsell and Stearns also worked together with the Brewers for many years, but the Mets ultimately didn’t seem to be interested in that bidding war, with Counsell landing with the Cubs.

Instead, the Mets pivoted to Carlos Mendoza, who has been a coach with the Yankees for the past 18 years. This is his first managerial gig, which is why his earning power is significantly less than that of Counsell. Mendoza will make a total of $4.5MM over three years while Counsell will be making more than that annually, as he got a five-year, $40MM deal from the Cubbies.

With the front office and dugout leaders selected, the attention turned to the roster. Since the Mets have been so aggressive in past winters, they were connected to some big names like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That interest didn’t really align with their plan of dialing things back this winter, but there were reasons to think they might make an exception. Ohtani is a unicorn talent and the ability to sign a player like him had never come up before and likely won’t ever happen again. Yamamoto is also incredibly talented and hit the open market at the age of 25, a situation that’s also fairly unprecedented.

The Mets seemed to at least consider these unique situations but ultimately didn’t land either player, with both of them going to the Dodgers. They made a real run at Yamamoto, reportedly offering the same 12 year, $325MM terms which he accepted from Los Angeles. Once they missed on those two, they seemed to have little interest in other top free agents, instead focusing on guys who could be signed to short-term deals.

The rotation was an obvious focus, with Verlander and Scherzer having been dealt last year. Carlos Carrasco also hit free agency, creating another opening and leaving the Mets with just Senga and José Quintana as established starters. One depth option was also subtracted over the winter when David Peterson underwent hip surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of 2024.

The Mets’ interest extended to pitchers like Erick Fedde, Lucas Giolito, Hyun Jin Ryu and Shota Imanaga, but they ultimately landed deals with a couple of bounceback candidates. Sean Manaea agreed to a two-year deal with an opt-out on the heels of a poor season with the Giants but one in which he finished strong. If he can carry that over with the Mets, it could be a nice buy-low move for them.

Luis Severino was also brought aboard on a one-year deal in somewhat similar circumstances. He was once arguably an ace but has been battling injuries and poor performance over the past five years. If he can get over his health problems, and the rumors he was tipping his pitches last year, he could also be a nice find.

In addition to those two, the club brought aboard Adrian Houser from the Brewers, the former club of Stearns. Those three were planned to be paired with Quintana and Senga but the latter is going to miss the start of the season due to a posterior capsule strain. The club doesn’t seem like it will bring in any further additions, relying on depth arms to get by until Senga returns, perhaps in May. Tylor Megill is probably the favorite to step in, though Joey Lucchesi and José Buttó are also on the 40-man roster.

In the bullpen, the club deployed a similar strategy of spreading money around to various targets. Adam Ottavino was brought back, while the club also gave roster spots to Jake Diekman, Jorge López, Shintaro Fujinami and Michael Tonkin. They briefly gave a spot to Austin Adams, though he was later outrighted, putting him in the position of providing non-roster depth alongside various minor league signees.

A lot of those guys are inconsistent and/or wild, but the club just needs a couple of them to be in good form to be happy with their relief corps. Edwin Díaz will be coming back after missing all of 2023 due to knee surgery and the club has incumbents Brooks Raley and Drew Smith still on hand as well.

On the position player side of things, the club was mostly focused on marginal moves. They have flirted with J.D. Martinez but he’s still a free agent of this writing. Adding Harrison Bader on a one-year deal was the most significant of the moves they did make, as that pushes Brandon Nimmo into a corner and upgrades the defense. Tyrone Taylor, acquired in the same deal as Houser, also bolsters the group in terms of glovework. He should be in a fourth outfielder role behind Nimmo, Bader and Starling Marte.

On the infield, the club had a bit of a question mark at third base, with Brett Baty struggling in 2023. The Mets were connected to guys like Justin Turner and Gio Urshela this winter but seemed content to leave the spot open as a battle between Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio. The latter unfortunately suffered a torn ACL and will miss most or perhaps all of this year, but the Mets didn’t pivot to other free agents. They did add Joey Wendle, who could perhaps step in if neither Baty nor Vientos take hold of the spot, but he’ll ideally be in a utility role.

Perhaps the biggest storyline in their position player group this winter was about what they didn’t do. With the club undergoing this sort of retooling and Pete Alonso set for free agency at the end of 2024, there was plenty of speculation about whether the club would consider either a trade or an extension. Ultimately, neither came together and Alonso will go into 2024 in wait-and-see mode. If the club is in contention, he will likely be a big part of that and would be a lock for a qualifying offer at season’s end. If they slip out of the race again, he could find himself as the top rental player available at the deadline.

That situation is a mirror of the club as a whole right now. Despite the frustrations of 2023, the club comes into 2024 looking like a Wild Card contender. The lineup still features incumbents like Alonso, Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Marte and Francisco Álvarez. Breakouts from Baty and/or Vientos could be a huge help, as could a healthy Bader. Perhaps DJ Stewart can carry forward his hot streak from the second half of last year. The pitching staff isn’t as exciting as last year when they had two future Hall-of-Famers but it could be decent if a few things break right.

There are many ways the 2024 season could go, from surprising contention to another dismal summer and another deadline selloff. As they see how things go in the coming months, they will be keeping a close eye on a few youngsters. In addition to seeing how the third base competition plays out, they have prospects like Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Christian Scott and Luisangel Acuña who will all be in the upper minors and perhaps pushing for big league debuts.

The Mets are, in many ways, in between this and that. Their modest offseason is a result of that uncertainty. They are still way over the competitive balance tax this year thanks to their previous aggression, but they have limited their future commitments. Per RosterResource, this year’s CBT number is $328MM but it will drop all the way to $171MM next year. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players, and they should have plenty of holes to fill with all of these one-year deals expiring, but it highlights how different things could be next winter. As the Mets and their fans know, a lot can change in a year.

How would you grade the Mets' offseason?

  • C 43% (1,570)
  • B 24% (899)
  • D 21% (767)
  • F 9% (336)
  • A 3% (122)

Total votes: 3,694

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2023-24 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals New York Mets

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

By | at March 7, 2024 3:05pm CDT

The Braves made a couple early-offseason strikes to bolster the pitching depth and install a former top prospect as their new left fielder. Their biggest move came right around the New Year with the acquisition and extension of a one-time ace whom they’re hoping will get back on track in 2024.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

While the first few weeks of the offseason were generally fairly quiet around the league, the Braves struck early. They began their work before the offseason technically began. Within two weeks of being bounced in the NL Division Series, Atlanta kept one of their free agents off the market.

The Braves inked Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, keeping the deadline pickup in the high-leverage mix after a dominant second half. The bullpen investment continued in early November. Joe Jiménez inked a three-year, $26MM pact (on a rare Atlanta extension that didn’t include a team option at the end) days before he would’ve been able to explore the open market.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff didn’t stop there. They orchestrated the first offseason trade of significance with the White Sox, sending five players to Chicago for lefty reliever Aaron Bummer. It’s a bet on Bummer’s velocity and strong strikeout and ground-ball rates despite his 6.79 ERA from a season ago. Atlanta subtracted back-of-the-roster depth in parting with rotation candidates Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster and infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake. No one from that group projected to play a significant role early in the 2024 season, making that an easier call for the front office.

With that level of early investment in the bullpen, it came as a surprise when the Braves dipped into free agency for yet another power arm who has spent the past couple seasons as a reliever. Reynaldo López inked a three-year, $30MM pact. That price point isn’t too surprising in itself, but the subsequent revelation that the Braves will allow him to compete for a rotation spot was unexpected. López struggled as a starting pitcher early in his career with the White Sox. He has been far better in relief over the last few seasons, yet it’s still fair to question whether he has the level of command necessary to be an effective starter.

López is battling the likes of AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Huascar Ynoa and top prospect Hurston Waldrep for the final spot in the starting five. That’s a high-octane collection of depth arms behind one of the sport’s strongest front fours. Spencer Strider and Max Fried are back in their customary top two rotation spots. The Braves exercised a $20MM option to keep Charlie Morton for his fourth season in Atlanta.

There was never a question they’d add one more established starter behind the Strider, Fried and Morton trio. The source of intrigue was which pitcher that would be. The Braves were tied to Georgia native Dylan Cease in trade rumors early in the winter but balked at the White Sox’s asking price. Ultimately, they turned to a pitcher few expected to be traded: Chris Sale.

Sale narrowly topped 100 innings over 20 starts for the Red Sox last season, his first time hitting the century mark since 2019. A pedestrian 4.30 ERA belied a much more impressive 29.4% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike percentage. The stuff that had made Sale an ace earlier in his career seems mostly intact. Yet there’s risk in betting on a pitcher who turns 35 this month and has missed extended stretches over the past three seasons because of Tommy John surgery, a broken finger, a wrist fracture, and last year’s bout of shoulder inflammation.

Between that injury history and a hefty $27.5MM salary, it seemed unlikely the Red Sox would find a taker for Sale. Atlanta got around the latter concern by convincing Boston to eat $17MM. With another $10MM of the salary set to be deferred, Sale essentially cost the Braves nothing this year financially. Getting the Sox to pay down that large a portion of the salary required parting with one of Atlanta’s top young players.

While Vaughn Grissom has technically exhausted his prospect eligibility, he was essentially Atlanta’s best young position player who was not already a key piece of the major league roster. The 23-year-old has hit .287/.339/.407 in scattered big league looks over the last two seasons. He’s coming off a .330/.419/.501 showing in Triple-A. Grissom could be an average or better MLB second baseman as soon as this year. His path to playing time on the Truist Park infield has long been blocked, so it seemed the Braves would cash him in for rotation help at some point.

Atlanta doubled down on the dice roll on Sale by reworking his contract. They signed him to a restructured two-year, $38MM deal not long after the trade. That reduced the team’s luxury tax obligations in the short term and tacked on a club option for the 2026 season while guaranteeing the lanky southpaw a $22MM salary for ’25 — a year that had previously been covered by a team option.

That completed the big work on the pitching staff. As has been the case for a few offseasons, the Braves entered the winter with a mostly settled group of hitters. Eight members of last year’s primary lineup are back. The one unsettled position was left field. Atlanta declined a $9MM option on Eddie Rosario, leaving that as the sole lineup spot which they needed to address.

While the Braves loosely floated the possibility of moving Grissom to left field before his inclusion in the Sale trade, they took that off the table at the Winter Meetings. Atlanta leveraged financial space to take a change-of-scenery look at former top prospect Jarred Kelenic. The left-handed hitter was a disappointment in Seattle, where he hit .204/.283/.373 over parts of three seasons.

Kelenic is coming off a career-best offensive showing, as he turned in a decent .253/.327/.419 batting line over 416 plate appearances last year. It wasn’t an entirely positive season, though. He struck out at a borderline untenable 31.7% rate, continuing the issues making contact that have plagued him throughout his career. Kelenic also missed a couple months with a self-inflicted foot fracture sustained when he kicked a water cooler in frustration after a strikeout.

Controllable for five seasons and a year away from arbitration, Kelenic himself isn’t costing the Braves much for the upcoming campaign. They did take a good chunk of dead money off Seattle’s books. The Braves added $24.5MM in salary on Marco Gonzales and Evan White. The actual return — reliever Jackson Kowar, acquired weeks earlier from the Royals for injured starter Kyle Wright, and mid-level pitching prospect Cole Phillips — wasn’t exorbitant. Kelenic will get an opportunity to play every day in left field, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of salary and luxury tax fees they took on to get him.

The Kelenic trade kicked off a series of additions in which the Braves ate underwater contracts to acquire depth pieces of interest. They offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates for nothing more than $2.75MM in savings on his $12MM contract. White went to the Angels in a bizarre move that saw Atlanta take on the deals of infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi. The Braves added an extra $6MM to the books, ostensibly to add Fletcher in the glove-first utility role which Nicky Lopez had played down the stretch.

Atlanta ate all but the league minimum on Stassi and flipped him to the White Sox for nothing, while they ran Fletcher through outright waivers. The latter remains in the organization in a non-roster capacity and could still get to the majors this year, but the subsequent signing of Luis Guillorme to a $1.1MM free agent deal makes him a bit redundant. The Fletcher/White swap seemed unnecessary in the larger context of the offseason.

The Braves made one more trade of this ilk in mid-December. Atlanta absorbed $4MM on Matt Carpenter’s salary to bring in hard-throwing reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres. The Braves released Carpenter (he subsequently signed a big league deal to return to the Cardinals), but Kerr is an intriguing lefty bullpen arm who can still be optioned to the minors. That’s a plus for a team that has seven relievers — Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Jiménez, Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Bummer and Jackson Stephens — who cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. All but Stephens are locks to be in the MLB bullpen if healthy.

It’s debatable whether the series of maneuvers at the back of the roster improves the Braves enough that it was worthwhile. It at least highlights the kind of flexibility afforded the front office by constructing a team with such a strong core. The Braves made a couple other small-scale changes.

They dealt veteran middle reliever Nick Anderson to the Royals, acquired fifth outfielder J.P. Martínez from the Rangers, and took minimal fliers on injury rehabbers Penn Murfee and Ángel Perdomo as forward-looking bullpen moves. It amounts to a lot of tinkering in an offseason that’ll be defined by the Sale, Kelenic and (to lesser extents) López and Bummer acquisitions.

Most of last year’s star-studded group is back. The catching tandem of Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud remains in place. Ditto the starting infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. Defending NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. dodged a scare with his right knee and should be in the Opening Day outfield beside Michael Harris II and Kelenic. Marcell Ozuna is under contract for one more season at designated hitter.

Maintaining perfect continuity is impossible for any team. The Braves parted with Rosario, Wright, Soroka, Grissom and a couple ancillary veteran contributors in the bullpen. Longtime third base coach Ron Washington was finally poached for another managerial opportunity after years of speculation. He’s now in charge of the Angels dugout.

Despite that handful of departures, the Braves again head into the season with one of the strongest teams in the majors. They’re still firmly in their championship window, though the more immediate concern will be snagging a seventh straight NL East title. Next offseason will bring more questions, particularly about the long-term state of the rotation with Fried trending towards free agency.

How would you grade the Braves' offseason?

  • B 49% (1,551)
  • A 31% (977)
  • C 16% (494)
  • D 3% (81)
  • F 2% (70)

Total votes: 3,173

 

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

By | at March 7, 2024 10:44am CDT

The Diamondbacks followed up their surprising pennant run with an active offseason. They’re still long shots to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, but they go into 2024 with clear expectations of a second consecutive playoff berth.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35MM
Total spending: $136.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Diamondbacks came up a little short of the second championship in franchise history. After clinching the National League’s last playoff spot on the final weekend of the season, they knocked off the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies en route to the Fall Classic. The Rangers put a stop to that run with a five-game triumph in the World Series, yet the Snakes went into the offseason seeking to build on that finish.

Arizona’s first order of business was to reward their longtime manager. Within the first few days of the offseason, the Snakes signed Torey Lovullo to an extension running through 2026. Now the third-longest tenured manager in the NL, Lovullo seemed as if he might be on the hot seat as recently as 2022. The front office stuck by him through three straight losing seasons in 2020-22 and was rewarded for that patience last year.

Once Lovullo’s contract was settled, GM Mike Hazen and his staff set about strengthening the roster. It wasn’t lost on the front office that their regular season performance — which is likely a better predictor of the future than their small-sample postseason run — was merely fine. Arizona went 84-78 and was outscored by 15 runs. They had clear areas to address in the middle of the rotation and at third base. The impending free agency of left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was another question.

Third base was the first domino to fall. While they were linked to free agents Jeimer Candelario and Justin Turner within the offseason’s first couple weeks, they turned to the trade market. Arizona dealt hard-throwing reliever Carlos Vargas and third catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners for Eugenio Suárez. While Vargas is an interesting developmental flier, the biggest appeal for Seattle was offloading the $13MM which Suárez is owed this year — taking the form of an $11MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $15MM club option for 2025.

Arizona bought a declining asset to some extent. After topping 30 homers in both 2021 and ’22, Suárez hit 22 longballs a season ago. He led the American League in strikeouts for a second consecutive year, punching out 214 times. His .232/.323/.391 batting line was almost exactly league average after accounting for the extreme pitcher-friendly nature of Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. It was his third average or worse offensive showing in the past four years.

Even if Suárez is trending downward as he nears his 33rd birthday, he’s an upgrade over utility types like Emmanuel Rivera and Jace Peterson. Moving to Chase Field should offer a boost to his power production. He draws plenty of walks and is a capable defensive infielder. There’ll be plenty of strikeouts, but that’s a trade-off Arizona was willing to accept to add a righty power bat to a lineup that has been built largely around athletic contact hitters.

They followed up with their big strike for rotation help at the Winter Meetings. The D-Backs landed Eduardo Rodríguez on a four-year, $80MM pact. It’s the franchise’s biggest free agent investment since the ill-fated Madison Bumgarner deal from 2019. Rodríguez’s contract generally aligned with expectations and adds a needed mid-rotation arm.

The southpaw turned in a career-low 3.30 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks in 26 starts for the Tigers last year. He’s familiar with Hazen and Lovullo from their time with the Red Sox, addressing any concerns they might have had after Rodríguez missed a chunk of 2022 attending to a personal matter and vetoed a deadline deal to the Dodgers last summer. He pairs with Merrill Kelly as mid-rotation arms behind ace Zac Gallen. That knocks Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth starter role that had been so problematic last year, both in the regular season and into October.

One can still quibble with the starting pitching depth, but the front office felt the bigger priority after landing Rodríguez was building out the lineup. They stuck with Gurriel in left field, bringing him back on a three-year, $42MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after the second season. Retaining Gurriel and adding Suárez addressed their desire for right-handed bats but still hadn’t satisfied the goal of bringing in a full-time designated hitter.

For that, they turned to lefty-swinging Joc Pederson. The D-Backs brought in Pederson on a one-year, $12.5MM deal. He’s coming off an unspectacular .235/.348/.416 showing for the Giants. Arizona is betting on Pederson to recapture something closer to his excellent 2022 form. He raked at a .274/.353/.521 clip with San Francisco two seasons ago.

Pederson’s hard contact rate remains elite and he posted better strikeout and walk numbers last year than he had in ’22. He’s a limited player — he should be shielded from lefty pitching and is best served as a DH only — but he should hit in the middle third of the lineup when opponents start a right-hander.

Suárez, Rodríguez, Gurriel and Pederson are the four big acquisitions (or retentions, in Gurriel’s case) of the offseason. The Snakes brought in a couple veterans to deepen the bench. They guaranteed Randal Grichuk $2MM, indicating he’ll serve as a right-handed hitting depth outfielder and perhaps a complement to Pederson in the DH slot. Grichuk clobbered lefties in 2023 and has a strong track record against them, making him a sensible fit in that role. Two-time Gold Glove winner Tucker Barnhart inked a minor league pact. He has a good chance to surpass José Herrera as the backup to franchise catcher Gabriel Moreno.

The only other notable transaction was a swap of young players with the White Sox. Arizona dealt lefty-hitting outfielder Dominic Fletcher to Chicago for pitching prospect Cristian Mena. The D-backs have subtracted a couple fringe outfielders via trade — they included Dominic Canzone as part of the Paul Sewald return last summer — reflecting the depth they have on the grass.

Gurriel is locked into left field. Defending Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll will handle the other corner. Defensive stalwart Alek Thomas will man center field. Jake McCarthy is still on hand as a depth option who can play all three outfield spots. Grichuk can play some center field as well, although Arizona’s collection of talented young defenders means he’s likely to spend the majority of his time in a corner or at DH.

Fletcher still has two options remaining, so the Snakes could have kept him in Triple-A Reno. He’s already 26 and wasn’t going to have a clear path to everyday playing time at Chase Field, however. It made more sense to flip to the White Sox, where he entered camp with the leg up on the starting right field job. That allowed the D-backs to bolster their rotation depth, a comparative weak point for Arizona.

Mena, 21, has yet to make his MLB debut. He’s on the 40-man roster and briefly reached Triple-A last season. The 6’2″ righty spent the bulk of the year in Double-A, where he turned in a 4.66 ERA with an impressive 27.9% strikeout rate but an 11.3% walk percentage. He’s still developing as a strike-thrower, but scouting reports praise his curveball and potential for command improvement. Mena could reach the majors at some point this year.

That’s unlikely to be on Opening Day. He’ll likely slot behind Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi and Tommy Henry in the battle for the fifth rotation spot. It’s not a great group and an injury to any of the top four starters could stress the pitching staff. If the Diamondbacks are in contention at the deadline, acquiring rotation depth could again be a summer goal.

Lovullo could lean heavily on the bullpen to help cover for some of the unproven arms at the back of the starting staff. Arizona enters 2024 with the strongest on-paper relief group they’ve had in years. The Sewald trade is a big part of that, although they’ve also been aided by the unheralded Ryan Thompson pickup and steps forward from Kevin Ginkel and Andrew Saalfrank.

The D-backs didn’t make a single major league acquisition to the relief group. Hazen suggested early in Spring Training they could still look for depth additions given the volatility of relief pitching (link via Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). Still, it was far less of a priority than it had been in the last few offseasons. Non-roster lefties Brandon Hughes and José Castillo are the most significant pickups thus far.

Arizona also inked a couple minor league contracts to bolster the infield depth. Kevin Newman and Elvis Andrus are in camp as non-roster shortstops. Lovullo has already declared Geraldo Perdomo his starter at the position. One of Andrus or Newman should make the team as a backup.

Aside from Perdomo, prospects Jordan Lawlar and Blaze Alexander are the only other shortstops on the 40-man roster. It’s better to get Lawlar everyday playing time in the upper minors than to use him sparingly off the major league bench. Alexander has yet to make his MLB debut and struck out at an elevated 27.2% clip in Triple-A. Lawlar might be the first option up if any of the starting infielders suffer an injury. At full health, the D-backs will run a primary group of Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Perdomo and Suárez around the dirt.

Walker, one of the sport’s more quietly productive first basemen, is now a year away from free agency. He and Sewald are the team’s top rentals. Both players are approaching their mid-30s, so the front office might not have much urgency to keep either off the open market. Walker told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro last month that there hadn’t been much talk about an extension, although he indicated he was open to that conversation.

If the front office were to consider extension targets, they might prefer to secure a younger member of the core. They successfully inked Carroll to a $111MM deal last spring, cementing the star outfielder as the face of the franchise. Moreno, who hit .284/.339/.408 in his first full big league campaign, would be the most obvious target for similar overtures this spring. Arizona would presumably love to keep Gallen around for the long haul, but that’s a much taller task. The Cy Young finalist is two years from free agency and trending towards a massive contract.

Whether or not the Diamondbacks can work out long-term deals with anyone this spring, they’ll go into the season with more optimism than they’ve had in years. Their active offseason has pushed their player payroll around $144MM, as calculated by RosterResource. While middle-of-the-pack by league standards, that’s the highest mark in franchise history.

Few people will predict Arizona to close what was a 16-game gap with Los Angeles even before the Dodgers’ offseason spending spree. Anything short of another Wild Card berth would count as a disappointment, though. The Diamondbacks raised expectations in October. Adding Rodríguez, Suárez and Pederson only bolsters that.

How would you grade the Diamondbacks' offseason?

  • B 53% (1,300)
  • A 22% (547)
  • C 18% (448)
  • D 3% (79)
  • F 3% (64)

Total votes: 2,438

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2023-24 Offseason In Review Arizona Diamondbacks MLBTR Originals

Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?

By | at March 6, 2024 11:28pm CDT

Trade rumors regarding J.D. Davis have been prevalent throughout the offseason. The Giants were linked to Matt Chapman for nearly four months before getting a deal done last week. Now that Chapman has displaced Davis from the starting lineup, there’s again speculation about a subsequent trade.

The Giants signing Chapman doesn’t seem to have been conditional on a Davis trade, as the latter remains on the San Francisco roster five days later. Davis is probably overqualified for a bench role. He has played fairly regularly over the past five seasons between the Mets and Giants. Davis has turned in above-average offensive numbers in each of those seasons, although last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash line was his weakest since he established himself as a regular.

Davis has received some criticism for his glove. Public metrics had almost unanimously graded him as a below-average defender until last season. There was a split in his defensive grades in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved still considered him among the worst third basemen in the league, grading him 11 runs below average. Statcast, by contrast, viewed his work as four runs better than par. No one would consider Davis comparable to Chapman with the glove, but pairing average or better defense with his power potential would make him a good everyday player.

That alone doesn’t mean the Giants need to trade him. San Francisco could keep him on hand as a quality depth option for this season. It’s not an ideal roster fit. Beyond Chapman, the Giants have Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infielder and will use Jorge Soler at designated hitter.

While Davis would have the ability to pursue an everyday third base job in free agency next winter, he doesn’t have much recourse right now. He said over the weekend that he’s willing to do “whatever the team needs,” even as he called the signing “definitely surprising” and stated he was unaware the team was adding Chapman before it was reported publicly (comments relayed by John Shea and Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Carrying Davis in a limited role is a suboptimal outcome for the Giants. He’s making $6.9MM after winning an arbitration hearing. That’s a lot to commit for a player used sparsely off the bench. Yet even if the Giants decide they’d prefer to offload Davis’ salary, Chapman’s late signing date could complicate those efforts.

A number of teams have publicly declared they’re near or at the level at which they’re willing to spend. Some clubs might view Davis as a slight upgrade over their in-house third basemen but not want to add a near-$7MM salary less than three weeks before Opening Day. Free agent spending on infielders was down all offseason and has gone particularly cold in recent weeks. Players like Tim Anderson ($5MM), Amed Rosario ($1.5MM) and Gio Urshela ($1.5MM) inked one-year pacts for salaries below what Davis will command. The Urshela contract, in particular, doesn’t point to a robust demand for third basemen.

Where will that leave the Giants? Will whatever trade interest they receive in Davis over the next few weeks be strong enough that they deem it preferable to keeping him?

Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?

  • Yes, before Opening Day. 46% (2,341)
  • Yes, midseason. 35% (1,788)
  • No. 19% (958)

Total votes: 5,087

 

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls San Francisco Giants

Out Of Options 2024

By | at March 5, 2024 11:59pm CDT

Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Out Of Options 2024

Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?

By | at March 2, 2024 7:11pm CDT

Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.

That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:

Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2

The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.

With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.

While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.

Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9

The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.

Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.

Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.

Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6

The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.

Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.

While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.

Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7

After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge‘s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.

That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.

Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.

Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2

It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.

The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.

Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.

————————

On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?

Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!

Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?

  • Orioles 52% (6,078)
  • Yankees 28% (3,344)
  • Blue Jays 8% (908)
  • Rays 6% (715)
  • Red Sox 6% (689)

Total votes: 11,734

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays

The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities

By | at February 28, 2024 11:25pm CDT

Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.

There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.

Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:

While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.

The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.

Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.

The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.

Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.

Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.

That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.

——————————

The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.

Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.

The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.

Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.

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Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen

By | at February 27, 2024 10:25pm CDT

In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a group of high-profile free agents still available this offseason. They’re all represented by the same agency. A few people have pointed this out. There were four of them, and with Cody Bellinger‘s new deal with the Cubs, there are now three. (Although J.D. Martinez still could be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some mild attention around the baseball world.

So much focus has been placed on the “Boras Four” — and not just for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the fact that the free agent market still has a handful of good, quality big leaguers who can help teams. None rejected a qualifying offer. None are looking for nine-figure deals. None will require a team to commit money into the 2028 season or beyond.

Arguably most prominent among the remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is fresh off a career-high 153 innings in what was only his second full season as a starter after a six-year run in the Cincinnati bullpen.

Lorenzen isn’t an ace, but he started 25 games last year (plus four relief appearances) and made the All-Star team after a strong first half of the season with the Tigers. Part of his selection to the Midsummer Classic was by default — every team needs an All-Star representative, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — but that shouldn’t be used to downplay the strength of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.

Heading into the All-Star Game, Lorenzen was sporting a solid but unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d started 15 games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was providing fine value. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning in the All-Star Game, and then came roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his best stretch of the season. The right-hander finished his first half with five shutout frames and began the second half with another 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the time the Phillies traded for him in the run-up to the annual trade deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.

By now, most fans and readers are familiar with Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs through eight excellent innings in his team debut before blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter during his first appearance pitching in front of Philly fans at Citizens Bank Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way to 3.23. From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 K/BB ratio.

And, just as most readers were likely already aware of those heights, the subsequent lows for Lorenzen have also been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that same Nationals offense, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch where he was torched for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies were always likely to move Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his experience in the role and the strength of the top of their staff, but they took that step several weeks early.

Lorenzen finished out the year with four shutout innings of relief across three appearances, but that did little to repair the damage of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 41% grounder rate and 1.18 HR/9 — solid production for a fourth starter but nowhere near as enticing as his numbers looked with just six weeks to go in the season.

It’s worth wondering the extent to which Lorenzen simply wore down. He pitched only 110 1/3 innings the year prior between the big leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch more than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping up to more than 150 frames on the year meant pushing his body to levels it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season back in 2015 — his rookie MLB campaign and final season as a starter before the Reds moved him to relief.

Despite the shaky finish, Lorenzen wound up with solid numbers on the season for a second straight year. He’s yet to make a full slate of 30+ starts in a season, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could do so in 2024-25 after building up to 153 innings in 2023. And dating back to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 44.5% ground-ball rate. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a nice 32.6% clip and logged a 10.2% swinging-strike rate that’s not far below the 11.1% MLB average.

It’s not an ace profile by any means, but there are plenty of big league teams that are preparing to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm in the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into one of those spots makes sense for a number of clubs, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the bank. He’s signed one-year deals for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the past two seasons. A relatively modest two-year deal or even a one-year deal at a bump over last year’s salary doesn’t seem unreasonable.

For teams seeking rotation help but unwilling/unable to spend at the necessary levels to sign Snell or Montgomery, a short-term deal with Lorenzen could make sense. That’s not true of every team, however. Let’s take a run through the league and look for some potential fits.

Teams with generally full rotations

Each of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation featuring five veterans and/or young starters who are locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.

Kansas City and Detroit might be stretches to land in this group, but for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would mean pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM salary to the bullpen or cutting him loose. Based on 2023 performances, they’d be better for it, but that’s a lot of money for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to leave that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and any other young arms to try to seize.

Top luxury payors who’d effectively owe double

Each of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxury tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% rate for any additional free agent signings. Even adding Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would mean taking on $9.9MM of taxes and put the total cost of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets recently saw Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder injury, but shelling out nearly $19MM for one year of Lorenzen doesn’t seem like a plausible outcome.

Rebuilding/non-competitive teams

The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at various stages of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three could have been a fit for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, but none seem likely now. The A’s signed Alex Wood and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them four set starters and a deep stock of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen in addition to acquiring Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. They also didn’t trade Dylan Cease. Lorenzen might be an upgrade, but it seems like they’ve added what they’re going to add. The Nationals haven’t done anything to bolster a sub-par rotation beyond signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has effectively declared his team out of the market for additional big league arms.

I’d argue that another non-competitive club, the Rockies, should absolutely be interested in signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of quality innings among their group of incumbents. But Colorado has shown minimal interest in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Field is a tall order.

Payroll and/or luxury tax issues

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them around $3MM shy of the base luxury tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a major penalty for signing Lorenzen — likely just a couple million dollars or so — but they have four locked-in starters and a deep collection of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with top prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not a great fit.
  • Rangers: Despite last year’s World Series win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty regarding the team’s television broadcast outlook. The Rangers could clearly use another arm with each of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured list. The team seems content to ride with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford while waiting on that veteran trio to return, though. GM Chris Young said earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any further additions of note.
  • Rays: The Rays should be shopping in this tier for rotation help, given that they’re relying on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a converted reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of talented but unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, once the game’s top pitching prospect, will be back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but on an innings limit. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) will be back at some point in 2024 but perhaps not until the season’s second half. Getting to that point could be a challenge with the Rays’ current group, but Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (somehow) a franchise record as it is. There’s room to sign Lorenzen for two years on a backloaded deal (particularly if the Rays eventually trade Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM salary), but their current financial outlay makes them a reach — even if there’s a clear need in the rotation.
  • Twins: The Twins have shown interest in Lorenzen but, like the Rangers, have scaled back their spending amid TV revenue concerns. After acquiring Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey suggested he’s likely finished adding to the big league roster. The Twins have a decent starting mix with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it is. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, but an addition apparently isn’t viewed as an imperative so long as the current group remains healthy in camp.

Plausible fits

  • Angels: Perhaps their attitude toward Lorenzen is “been there, done that,” but the Halos have plenty of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, but he has minor league options remaining. Jose Suarez is another option, but he’s also in need of a rebound. If owner Arte Moreno wants to continue his resistance to long-term deals for pitchers, the Angels could bring Lorenzen back without coming close to their franchise-record for payroll or to the luxury tax threshold.
  • Brewers: Gone are the days of the Brewers’ nearly unrivaled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is back to lead a staff that also features a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Hall — acquired in the surprise late-offseason trade of Corbin Burnes — round things out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t far from the big leagues himself. But the Brewers lack some certainty in the rotation and project for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their standards.
  • D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they have some depth for the fifth slot, but none of it is proven. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise record by about $11MM, but if there’s room for one more addition, Lorenzen would solidify the final rotation spot on a win-now club that’s looking to follow up on last year’s surprise World Series bid.
  • Giants: The Giants’ rotation looked like a mess even before injury scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly still in the mix to sign Blake Snell, so there’s clearly money left to spend. Right now, they’ll follow ace Logan Webb with top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are healthy. (Winn recently resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand injury.) Frankly, they could stand to add one of Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
  • Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiety from O’s fans after an otherwise silent offseason on the starting pitching front, but there’s now concern elsewhere in the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is trying to rehab a UCL strain in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to avoid going under the knife after a UCL injury, but the overwhelming majority of such injury scares end in surgery. Meanwhile, John Means is behind schedule and likely to open the season on the injured list due to his own elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, but the Orioles are much deeper in high-end position player prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has just $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They should absolutely be looking for an addition of some sort, and they reportedly showed interest in Lorenzen before acquiring Burnes.
  • Padres: Another team that’s reportedly shown interest in Lorenzen, the Padres have cut payroll significantly and are now more than $20MM from the luxury threshold and nearly $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They only have two clear-cut, proven starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired in the Juan Soto trade, will fill the third spot in the rotation after a strong showing with the Yankees in 2023, but he’s never started more than nine games in a big league season. The other two spots are entirely up for grabs among a group of largely untested arms. There might not be a clearer on-paper fit, although…
  • Pirates: …if there is one, it might be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with recently extended Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in the top spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason. Last year’s No. 1 pick, Paul Skenes, should quickly ascend to the big leagues but that probably won’t happen until this summer. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, but either lack MLB success or are (in the case of Falter and Contreras) are looking to put an ugly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been talking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and other starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his desire to further add to the rotation.
  • Red Sox: Not to be outdone in their need for rotation help amid a shaky collection of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he signs elsewhere or they deem the price too high, Lorenzen could easily fit into the budget of a team that’s nearly $60MM from its franchise record and not close to the luxury tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, but the combination of Nick Pivetta (who lost his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox need quality innings, but ownership clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been followed up with payroll reduction and modest additions on the margins of the roster.

—

If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would join the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Giants and Orioles as the clearest fits for a solid, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Finances very likely are an issue for Tampa Bay, however, but any of those five other clubs — arguably in that order — should be able to find room to raise their rotation’s floor by plugging Lorenzen in at a price that won’t break the bank.

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MLBTR Originals

What Does Matt Chapman’s Market Look Like After The Cody Bellinger Deal?

By | at February 26, 2024 11:59pm CDT

For weeks now, the baseball world’s spotlight has been pointed at the “Boras Four.” Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are all represented by the Boras Corporation and each one lingered in free agency until late February as a staring contest seemed to be taking place between the agency and interested clubs.

The first blink finally came over the weekend, with Bellinger agreeing to return to the Cubs on a short-term, opt-out laden deal. Bellinger is guaranteed $80MM over three years but can walk away after each of the first two seasons, collecting salaries of $30MM in each of those two campaigns.

Now the attention will turn to the other three, and it’s possible there are domino effects of the Bellinger deal, particularly for Chapman. The Cubs were a speculative fit for starting pitchers this winter, but they signed Shota Imanaga and were never firmly connected to either Snell or Montgomery.

But for Chapman, the Cubs were one of four clubs to have been reportedly involved in his market. Adding Bellinger to the club doesn’t eliminate the roster fit with Chapman, as their third base mix is still fairly unsettled. It seems like some combination of Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal will be vying for playing time at the hot corner. Morel has just 180 2/3 big league innings at the position with poor grades from defensive metrics. It’s a fairly small sample, but the Cubs haven’t been confident enough in his abilities there to let him expand it. His potent bat also comes with concerns, including a 31.6% strikeout rate thus far in his career. Wisdom’s profile is somewhat comparable while Madrigal is the inverse, providing solid glovework and avoiding strikeouts but with almost no power to speak of.

There would be an argument to the Cubs adding Chapman to solidify that position. The designated hitter spot is open, which would still give Morel a path to regular at-bats while serving as a utility player, moving to various positions to give others an occasional day off. Wisdom and Madrigal could be useful role players off the bench.

However, the Cubs may be done making impact signings. After the Bellinger deal, Roster Resource pegs their competitive balance tax number just above $234MM. That puts just them barely under this year’s $237MM base threshold. They have paid the tax in the past, but not since 2019. They were technically over the line in 2020 but the taxes were waived in the pandemic-shortened season.

If the Cubs wanted to, they could get back over the line again, but they might to prefer to stay where they are for now. They could use the first half of the season to assess Morel’s abilities at the position and then make a deadline trade if they decide an upgrade over him, Madrigal and/or Wisdom is warranted.

What also might be an issue is that Chapman may be less inclined to take a short-term deal like the one Bellinger signed. While Bellinger in 28 years old, Chapman is a couple of months away from his 31st birthday. Returning to the open market a year from now would have some appeal, since he’s currently saddled with a qualifying offer. Players can only receive one QO in their careers, and that wouldn’t be a concern next winter. He could also perhaps stay healthy and put together a better offensive platform, after he was seemingly held back by a finger injury in 2023. But his primary selling point is his defense, and the appeal of that glovework to clubs will likely only go down as he pushes further into his 30s. If clubs are wary of making a long-term commitment to Chapman at the moment, that’d only be truer next offseason, barring a massive resurgence at the plate.

It’s possible Chapman is looking to bank as much money as possible right now, which might not make the Cubs the perfect fit in the long term. Two of their best prospects are infielders in Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Shaw was just drafted last summer but was in Double-A by the end of the year and may not be too far from the majors. Triantos also reached Double-A last year and then seemed to have a breakout in the Arizona Fall League. Both of them have played second base, third base and shortstop in the minors, but the Cubs are fairly set up the middle. Dansby Swanson is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and is signed through 2029. Nico Hoerner is excellent at the keystone, and his contract runs through 2026.

With Shaw and Triantos on the way, Morel a plausible solution at third base in the short term and the club’s CBT number right up against the line, the Cubs may not want to make a big investment in Chapman. Perhaps that would change if Chapman is open to a short-term deal but, as mentioned, there are reasons why he may not be as amenable to that structure as Bellinger was.

Besides the Cubs, the three other clubs that have been connected to Chapman in rumors are the Blue Jays, Giants and Mariners. The Jays employed Chapman last year and have reportedly been interested in bringing him back, though the rumors connected to the two sides have largely dried up since November. In the interim, the Jays have added infielders Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the roster.

The signings of those two players shouldn’t close the door to a Chapman reunion, as Turner could fill the role served by Brandon Belt last year, serving primarily as a DH while donning a glove from time to time. Kiner-Falefa could replace Whit Merrifield, who split his time between second base and the outfield for the Jays last year.

That means Chapman could still retake his position from last year while leaving the Jays in essentially the same spot as 2023, but they also have an army of young infielders. Between Turner, Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez and Ernie Clement, they may feel they have enough bodies to cover both second and third base. They also brought in veteran Eduardo Escobar on a minor league deal.

Beyond the roster fit, there’s also the financial question. The club opened last season with a franchise-high payroll of $210MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already way beyond that for this year, with Roster Resource putting them at $236MM. They also have a CBT figure of $249MM, already $12MM over the base threshold. Signing Chapman to a significant deal would mean pushing beyond the second line of $257MM. General manager Ross Atkins recently suggested that adding anything to the books would also require subtraction, implying they are at their limit.

The Giants don’t strictly need a third baseman, as they have J.D. Davis at the hot corner. However, upgrading the defense has been a concern for that club after some recent struggles. Their team-wide -15 Defensive Runs Saved last year had them 23rd in the league. Chapman has a tally of 92 DRS in his career, including 12 in 2023. Davis, meanwhile, was at -11 last year. His Outs Above Average tally was much nicer at +5, but even OAA considers him subpar in his career.

Chapman would give the club a nice defensive boost to the left side of the infield, which may be extra important if they plan to give rookie Marco Luciano an audition at shortstop. It’s also been speculated that Chapman’s connections to manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi might play a role, as both of them were with the Athletics when Chapman was drafted by that club.

But there are also reasons why Chapman may not end up in San Francisco. Zaidi recently threw some cold water on the possibility of a notable addition. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s off the table, as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts made some similar comments not long before they agreed with Bellinger. But the Giants are also relatively close to the CBT line, with Roster Resource putting them at $213MM. They have paid the tax in the past but not since 2017.

Perhaps the market for the top free agents has been depressed enough that they can sign one of the remaining Boras guys while staying under the line. That’s especially true of Chapman, if signing him led to a trade of Davis and some or all of his $6.9MM salary. But even if there’s powder dry for another move, it’s arguable that it would make more sense for them to go after Snell or Montgomery, both of whom they have had reported interest in. Their rotation has little certainly beyond Logan Webb, as both Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will be starting the year on the injured list. Webb will be backed up by Jordan Hicks, who is unproven as a starter, as well as inexperienced youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn.

As for the Mariners, they are currently slated to have a platoon of Luis Urías and Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Both of them are coming off poor seasons, with Rojas finishing with a wRC+ of 78 and Urias at 83. Even though Chapman struggled a bit last year, his wRC+ still finished at 110. He’s also a better defender than either of them and would give the club a clear upgrade.

Despite the roster fit, general manager Justin Hollander recently said the club’s upcoming additions would likely be more marginal in nature. The M’s had an Opening Day payroll of $137MM last year, per Cot’s, and Roster Resource puts them at $135MM going into this year. They’ve been as high as $158MM in the past but it’s been reported that their TV revenue uncertainty may prevent them from pushing far beyond last year’s figure.

There are other clubs that could make for speculative fits but they haven’t yet been meaningfully connected to Chapman in his nearly four months on the open market. The Angels could sign him and bump Anthony Rendon into a DH role, but their rotation also needs upgrading and owner Arte Moreno recently said the club will have a lower payroll this year. The Mets have an uncertain third base mix but seem willing to let Brett Baty and Mark Vientos battle for time there, and they are facing a 110% tax bill on any further spending at this point. The Yankees could bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role but are also facing a 110% tax bill on further spending. The Phillies could sign Chapman and move Alec Bohm to the bench but there hasn’t been any indication they are thinking of doing so. They are also looking at sizeable taxes and are only $16MM away from the third CBT tier, the crossing of which would cause their top 2025 draft pick to be pushed back 10 spots. The Brewers could make sense but they also may want to let Joey Ortiz have a shot at third base after acquiring him in the Corbin Burnes trade and don’t usually make huge free agent splashes anyway. Young outfielder Sal Frelick will also be getting looks in the infield this spring.

A couple of months ago, MLBTR ran a poll looking at Chapman’s market. The Cubs were the third most popular choice, getting 19.65% of the votes. Presumably, less readers will see the fit after the Bellinger signing, but let’s find out. Where do you think he’ll end up?

That post also featured a poll about Chapman’s earning power. At that point, almost 60% of respondents still felt Chapman could get over $100MM. That percentage will also likely be lower as he remains unsigned with the month of March just over the horizon, but let’s see. Have your say in the polls below!

Where Will Matt Chapman Sign?

  • Giants 31% (3,607)
  • Blue Jays 20% (2,302)
  • Mariners 14% (1,671)
  • Cubs 9% (1,051)
  • Other 7% (845)
  • Angels 6% (720)
  • Brewers 4% (471)
  • Yankees 4% (439)
  • Mets 3% (328)
  • Phillies 2% (230)

Total votes: 11,664

For How Much Will Matt Chapman Sign?

  • $75MM or less 52% (5,136)
  • $76-100MM 33% (3,268)
  • $101-125MM 9% (892)
  • $126-150MM 3% (332)
  • More than $200MM 1% (104)
  • $151-175MM 1% (99)
  • $176-200MM 1% (52)

Total votes: 9,883

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