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MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options

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Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.

Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.

Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.

While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).

For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.

Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.

So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Which Of Chad Green's Contract Options Will Be Exercised?
None (Green becomes a free agent) 28.97% (994 votes)
Two-year, $21MM team option 26.03% (893 votes)
One-year, $6.25MM player option 25.07% (860 votes)
Three-year, $27MM team option 19.94% (684 votes)
Total Votes: 3,431

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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A relatively quiet offseason a year ago didn’t stop the Dodgers from continuing their incredible run of regular season success. But after another disappointing playoff performance, perhaps they will be more aggressive this winter. There are many ways to do that, but the big question is whether or not they land the most unique free agent in history.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF: $295MM through 2032
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $108MM through 2027
  • Chris Taylor, 1B/OF: $30MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option)
  • Miguel Rojas, IF: $6MM through 2024 (includes buyout on ’25 option)
  • Tony Gonsolin, RHP: $5.4MM through 2024 (eligible for two more arbitration years after that)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $3.5MM through 2024 (includes ’25 option with no buyout)

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $18MM option on RHP Lance Lynn with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $14MM option on IF Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Club holds $9.5MM option on RHP Joe Kelly with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $6.5MM option on RHP Daniel Hudson with no buyout
  • Club holds $3MM buyout on RHP Alex Reyes with $100K buyout
  • Club holds option between $1MM and $7MM on Blake Treinen, depending on health

2024 financial commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $98.9MM
Total future commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $461.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Yarbrough, Almonte, Suero

Free Agents

The Dodgers had a fairly quiet offseason after 2022, limiting themselves to one-year free agents like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez. That led some observers to predict that they could be dethroned in the West by the Padres, who had a far louder winter, or perhaps an upstart Diamondbacks club. But the Dodgers had yet another excellent season, winning 100 games for the fourth straight full season and fifth out of the last six. They won the West division title for the 10th time out of the last 11 seasons, with their only second-place finish being the 106-win club in 2021 getting edged out by the 107-win Giants.

There’s no question they’ve been the most consistently good regular season club over the past decade-plus, but the postseason is another matter. All of those playoff berths have resulted in just one title, which was in the shortened 2020 season, and they’ve been quickly bounced out of the NLDS in each of their past two trips.

Perhaps that will lead the club to make some more noise this winter, which they have the ability to do. They’ve been one of the top spenders in the past decade but have generally avoided long-term commitments. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players under contract beyond 2025 and each of those two are continuing to play at MVP-caliber levels, meaning there’s almost no dead money on the books.

In terms of 2024, Roster Resource estimates their current payroll around $126MM, which includes the MLBTR arbitration projections. A few non-tenders could drop that closer to $120MM, particularly if they let go of Yarbrough, who was cut by the Rays at this time a year ago. Their luxury tax figure would be under $140MM if they did indeed cut Yarbrough. That gives the Dodgers plenty of room to be aggressive this winter, as they have frequently run Opening Day payrolls in the $240-280MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to reset their luxury tax status after paying the tax in the past two years, they could add about $100MM before getting near this year’s $237MM base threshold.

The Dodgers are likely to be one of many teams drawing up two distinct offseason plans, one that involves signing Shohei Ohtani and one that doesn’t. The most unique player in baseball history is about to become the most unique free agent in baseball history, with many pegging the Dodgers the most likely landing spot. Ohtani has frequently mentioned a desire to win as a priority and the Dodgers would have a compelling case in that department.

Of course, Ohtani will surely want to be compensated at a fair rate as well, but there’s nothing preventing the Dodgers from doing that. As mentioned, they have plenty of spending room both for the coming year and well into the future. It has been speculated that Ohtani might lean towards a West Coast club, since that was his preference when first coming over from Japan. At that time, he was limited by the amateur bonus pool system and was only going to be able to pull in a few million bucks, meaning that such a preference wouldn’t impact his earning power. Now he will be motivated to express an interest in any club, as expanding his market will help him secure the biggest possible guarantee. But if he privately holds onto that West Coast preference, it would only help the Dodgers.

It’s possible there are other factors that could work against them, at least speculatively. Ohtani hasn’t interacted with English-language media very much during his time as an Angel, at least compared to other superstars in the game. It has been speculated that moving to a bigger market club would make it harder for him to maintain that relative spotlight reluctance. Whether that’s something that actually matters to him can’t really be known.

There’s also the question of Ohtani’s leash to continue pitching deeper into his career. There’s no precedent for anything Ohtani does and different clubs will probably have different ideas about how long they want him to continue with the full two-way workload. Now that he’s coming off a second career Tommy John surgery, or something close to it, that only raises further questions about how he will hold up into his 30s. Some clubs may want to give him free rein to start for as long as he wants, others might have ideas about when a move to the bullpen will be warranted or when it would be time to stop pitching altogether. If the pitching eventually needs to stop, some clubs may view him as a viable outfielder, a position he played in Japan. Others might prefer to just keep him as a designated hitter as he ages.

It’s can’t really be known how the Dodgers view these matters, but these are things that will likely come up in offseason discussions with Ohtani and his reps. Ohtani is hitting free agency ahead of his age-29 season, two years younger than Aaron Judge was before his free agency. Since Judge was able to secure a nine-year deal, Ohtani will very likely be able to get into the double digits. Even though he’ll be a DH only in 2024, teams will undoubtedly be enticed by his potential return to being a two-way player, as well as the international marketing opportunities he can provide. But in the short-term, the free agency of Martinez means that the Dodgers have an open DH spot they can easily slot Ohtani into.

Gauging Ohtani’s interest in being a Dodger figures to be the number one priority for the club, with everything else following from there. But there will be some formalities that have to come first, with a large number of club options on the table. Each of Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes missed all or most of 2023 due to injuries and should have their options declined. The Dodgers are generally unafraid of banking on their injured players but would likely work out new deals with any of this group they wanted to take another chance on.

The net $8.5MM decision on Joe Kelly is borderline, but the club would likely prefer to keep that powder dry for now, with the ability to circle back to Kelly or someone similar later in the winter. Max Muncy is a lock to have his option picked up, despite the low batting average and high strikeouts. He launched 36 home runs this year and walked in 14.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and 2.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. Though he was able to nudge the option price up to $14MM by reaching plate appearance escalators, it’s still a bargain. Lance Lynn is likely to be bought out after posting a 5.73 earned run average this year.

The Dodgers will be looking to replace some thump in their lineup, whether they sign Ohtani or not, even though Betts and Freeman will each be back. Martinez and Jason Heyward each had solid bounceback years, but both are now set to return to free agency. Martinez has yet to receive a qualifying offer in his career and the Dodgers could offer him one, but there are reasons they may not do so. Martinez settled for a one-year, $10MM to join the Dodgers a year ago and this year’s qualifying offer is expected to go over $20MM. That kind of pay raise might be tempting for a 36-year-old designated hitter. But the Dodgers may not want to risk that since players who accept a qualifying offer can’t be traded until June 15. Having both Martinez and Ohtani on the same club isn’t possible with just one DH slot, so the Dodgers probably can’t take a chance by putting the offer in front of Martinez.

But Martinez will likely want to wait on Ohtani before deciding where to sign, since many clubs may have him as a backup option. That means the Dodgers may be able to circle back to him if they don’t end up landing Ohtani. Other players who may be in a similar boat include Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt or old friends Justin Turner and Joc Pederson.

Replacing Heyward may not be as necessary. Betts spent a lot of time on the infield this year with Gavin Lux suffering a season-ending knee injury in Spring Training. If Lux is healthy enough to rejoin the middle infield next year, Betts can go back to being a primary right fielder next to center fielder James Outman. Left field will still be a question mark, but the club would have some internal options there with Chris Taylor, Andy Pages and Jonny Deluca some of them. It might be possible to fit Heyward in there, but he may have cleaner paths to playing time elsewhere.

On the infield, Freeman and Muncy should have the corners largely spoken for. The middle infield is a bit less certain, with the aforementioned Lux situation the major unanswered question. The club was planning to give him a shot to be an everyday shortstop before his injury. Whether that plan is back on the table remains to be seen. If he is able to secure the shortstop job, he could push Miguel Rojas to second base or perhaps into a depth role. Or perhaps Lux sticks at the less-demanding second base spot going forward. There are also prospects looming, with Michael Busch and Jorbit Vivas some of those potentially in the mix for the keystone. Since the free agent market doesn’t have too much to offer anyway, the Dodgers might stick with internal candidates here as well, though the trade market theoretically offers players like Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan.

The catching spot seems fine with Will Smith having another strong season in 2023. Austin Barnes wasn’t great at the plate in 2023 but is already under contract and still got good marks for his framing. Cutting him loose and signing a veteran backup wouldn’t be shocking, but it wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources when the club has bigger priorities elsewhere.

Outside of the Ohtani question, the big focus for the Dodgers this winter will be the starting pitching. This year saw the pitching injuries pile up, and Julio Urías become unavailable due to a domestic violence situation, with the diminished rotation arguably serving as the club’s unraveling. They tried to patch things together by trading for Lynn, Yarbrough and Eduardo Rodriguez, but E-Rod used his no-trade clause to stay with the Tigers while Lynn wasn’t able to salvage his rough season as hoped. The club can keep Lynn around but $17MM for the age-37 season of a pitcher who just allowed 44 homers is fairly steep.

Both Urías and Clayton Kershaw are set to become free agents, and some of the pitching injuries will carry over into next year. Dustin May will likely miss the first half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in July. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John later in the year and will likely miss the entire 2024 season. That leaves the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own Tommy John, atop their depth chart. Bobby Miller likely earned a spot after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2023. Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone could compete for jobs as well but it’s arguable that none of them did enough to be guaranteed a gig.

That could position the Dodgers to seek out as many as three starting pitchers this offseason. One of them could be Kershaw coming back, though that’s become an annual question in recent years. The two most recent offseasons have seen him deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. Though he eventually returned to the Dodgers in each instance, it seems there’s less confidence in that path this year. His velocity dipped as he battled shoulder issues this year and he indicated he might take a few months before making his choice about 2024.

Even if the Dodgers land Ohtani, he won’t help the rotation since he won’t be pitching in 2024. The Dodgers have the spending capacity to play at any level of free agency, but it’s possible that their level of spending in this aisle is contingent on what happens with Ohtani and Kershaw. The top of the market will feature guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola, with each of them looking at nine-figure deals. Then there’s also solid guys at a lower tier, such as Seth Lugo or old friend Kenta Maeda, as well as bounceback candidates like Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas.

The trade market is another area the club could explore, though this path is a little trickier. Brandon Woodruff is out for most or perhaps all of 2024, which might mean the Brewers take Corbin Burnes off the market. Other theoretical trade candidates may be hard to pry loose as well, with the White Sox seemingly hoping to contend and therefore likely holding Dylan Cease. Perhaps Shane Bieber can be freed from Cleveland, but his stock is down after a bit of an uninspiring year and a late-season battle with elbow inflammation. The Pirates are probably looking to hold Mitch Keller as they try to build off some encouraging performances in 2023.

The bullpen is likely less of a priority, with plenty of strong arms still under club control next year. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzálezand Alex Vesia all had good results in one way or another and each can be retained via affordable arbitration salaries. Adding a couple of veteran free agents to the group should be on the table, but the level of aggressiveness will likely be dictated by how the other priorities are addressed.

All signs point towards a bigger offseason for the Dodgers this year, though that could take a few different shapes. Maybe they can sign Ohtani or maybe they can’t. Maybe Kershaw comes back or maybe he doesn’t. Whether those guys are involved or not, the club will need to add to the rotation and the lineup. But there may not be any club with as much spending capacity this winter, meaning there’s a good chance this offseason looks very different from the last one.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Dodgers-centric chat on 10-19-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes held a live Cubs-centric chat. Click here to read the transcript.

After falling just short of a Wild Card berth, the Cubs must re-sign Cody Bellinger or replace his production, while also considering improvements at the infield corners and in the starting rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: can opt out of remaining one year, $21MM
  • Drew Smyly, SP/RP: can opt out of remaining one year, $11MM
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $16MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
  • Cody Bellinger, CF/1B: $25MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
  • Yan Gomes, C: $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
  • Brad Boxberger, RP: $5MM mutual option with an $800K buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs generally weren’t being picked as a playoff team in the preseason, but by the end of August a Wild Card berth was looking likely.  Instead, the team played to a 12-16 record in September and ultimately fell one win short of the Marlins and Diamondbacks (who held the tiebreaker over them anyway).  The shape and timing of the team’s record was painful for fans, but in the end this was simply an 83-win team.

Last winter’s big addition, Dansby Swanson, played just about as well as the Cubs could’ve hoped.  Mirroring the team as a whole, the shape of his contributions was less than ideal, as Swanson limped to an 86 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  Still, Swanson hit well enough overall and led all MLB shortstops in defensive Outs Above Average en route to a 4.9 fWAR season that bested fellow 2022-23 free agents Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa.

The Cubs are in great shape in the middle infield, having added a year of control for Nico Hoerner in a late March extension.  Hoerner provided similar value to his double play partner Swanson, ranking fourth among second baseman in Outs Above Average and posting 4.7 WAR.

On the catching front, free agent signing Tucker Barnhart was inked to a two-year deal in the offseason but was released by August.  The lion’s share of work behind the dish went to Yan Gomes, whose 821 2/3 defensive innings at catcher were his most since 2018.  Gomes put in solid work, and the Cubs figure to pick up his option.  But at age 36, he can’t be counted on for the same workload in 2024.

Longtime Cubs catching prospect Miguel Amaya made the team for good in June, supplanting Barnhart.  Amaya hit well enough overall in his 156 plate appearances, though he did not receive consistent playing time from manager and former catcher David Ross.  The Gomes-Amaya job share seems likely to shift more toward Amaya in 2024, and a significant addition at catcher seems unlikely.

The Cubs are also set at the outfield corners with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, both of whom are under contract through 2026 after Happ’s April extension.  Similar to the Cubs’ middle infield combination, Happ played about as well as could be expected.  Suzuki’s season was uneven, but could be viewed as a leap forward given a wRC+ jump from 116 to 126.  He had a brutal June, perhaps affected by neck issues.  But once the calendar turned to August, Suzuki started hitting like a superstar.  His 183 wRC+ over the season’s final two months ranked third in all of baseball, behind only Mookie Betts and Marcell Ozuna.

The Cubs may need Suzuki to anchor their lineup next year, because Cody Bellinger’s excellent bounceback season could lead him to greener pastures.  Bellinger, 28, made good on his one-year deal to lead the Cubs with a 134 wRC+.  The likely Comeback Player of the Year split his time between center field and first base, cutting his strikeouts dramatically and crushing 26 home runs.  Bellinger started out strong in April but had been in the midst of a slump upon hitting the IL in late May for a bruised knee.  After a monthlong absence, Bellinger failed to hit the ground running.

Something clicked around June 27th, and Bellinger amazingly hit .414/.448/.682 with 11 home runs over his next 172 plate appearances.  It was, quite possibly, a $100MM hot streak.  Bellinger posted a 103 wRC+ from August 13th forward, but on the whole did well to erase the 2020-22 struggles that led him to a one-year deal.

Those struggles were explained away by agent Scott Boras as injury-related, with Boras saying the Dodgers had “asked [Bellinger] to play with a 35% strength deficiency.”  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman called that “a very convenient narrative,” and Boras subsequently walked back his comments somewhat.  Understanding how Bellinger went from the 2019 MVP, to one of the worst hitters in baseball, and back to a 4 WAR level this year is crucial in valuing Bellinger as a free agent and projecting his long-term future.  Teams will also be considering Bellinger’s Statcast metrics, which as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in mid-August, may serve as red flags.

I have seen suggestions that a team could sign Bellinger for $150MM this winter.  My guess, without talking to Boras, is that the agent has a number roughly twice that high as a target.  Bellinger has youth, the ability to play a premium defensive position, elite offense in his contract year, and an MVP award on his shelf.  He’s also reaching free agency in a market devoid of MVP-caliber position player talent, aside from Shohei Ohtani.  Right now, I’m setting my expectations north of $250MM.

Circling back to the Cubs, they can scarcely afford to lose Bellinger, but if I’m in the correct neighborhood on the contract my guess is that the Ricketts family won’t have the appetite for it.  The Cubs pretty clearly moved toward the least expensive of the Big Four shortstops last winter in Swanson, and don’t appear to have made competitive offers to any of the other three.  Cubs ownership last shopped in the luxury aisle of free agency about six years ago, landing the #2 free agent in Yu Darvish.  They had done the same for Jon Lester and Jason Heyward previously, so there is precedent.  It’s just that it’s been a while, and there have been several missed opportunities to sign top free agents that would have supplemented the team well.  Bellinger also feels particularly risky on a megadeal, given how far he’d fallen to want to sign a one-year deal in the first place.

Another point against the Cubs signing Bellinger is the presence of Pete Crow-Armstrong.  If the Cubs believe in Crow-Armstrong, then Bellinger could spend most of a theoretical huge contract at first base, where a 120 wRC+ bat (my estimate) is a lot less exciting.  This year Crow-Armstrong conquered Double-A, did fine at Triple-A for a month, and then got a big league look in mid-September.  Crow-Armstrong drew only one start before the Cubs were eliminated, and went hitless in 19 plate appearances.  But much like Swanson and Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong’s calling card is elite defense.  Crow-Armstrong’s defense is good enough that he may be a credible regular at age 22 next year even if he doesn’t hit much.

If Bellinger prices himself out of the Cubs’ range and they decide to lean into the elite defender idea, Matt Chapman could be a target.  This year, the Cubs had four different players log 150+ innings at third base: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, and trade deadline pickup Jeimer Candelario.  Madrigal and Mastrobuoni didn’t hit enough to fit as regulars at third base, while Wisdom was used as a short-side platoon bat and struck out nearly 37% of the time.

Chapman is something of a Dansby Swanson type player, only at third base.  He makes his reputation on his glove, but is generally good for a 110 wRC+ bat.  With Chapman, Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, and Hoerner, the Cubs could have four top-five defenders on the field.  That said, Chapman turns 31 in April, and his bat was even streakier this year than any of the aforementioned Cubs.

Candelario raked for about three weeks upon joining the Cubs, and then he was terrible for the final month or so, a stint that included a lower back strain.  In a thin market, he could be in line for a four-year deal, yet could still be a safer signing for the Cubs than Bellinger or Chapman.  He also has the ability to play first base, a position where Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis failed to impress.  Mervis, 26 in April, hit well at Triple-A and remains an option at first base or designated hitter.  Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt could also be possibilities at first base, if the Cubs are seeking a free agent on a short-term deal.

The Mets’ Pete Alonso represents an intriguing first base target for the Cubs.  In August, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Cubs were among the teams that spoke to the Mets about Alonso prior to the deadline.  MLBTR projects a $22MM salary for Alonso in 2024, his final year before free agency.  Trading for Alonso would represent a way to replace Bellinger’s bat without making a long-term commitment.  The natural question is who would the Mets want from the Cubs for Alonso?  I don’t love some of the rare precedents for this type of trade, such as the Teoscar Hernandez or Paul Goldschmidt deals, so I’ll just say that Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns would likely seek two MLB-ready potential regulars, and the Cubs might at least have a few options on the position player side in Mervis or Kevin Alcantara.

The other big bat who could be available in trade this winter is the Padres’ Juan Soto, also under control for one more season.  Assuming the Cubs don’t want to push Happ back into center field, Soto is a less-than-ideal fit position-wise since he plays the corner outfield.  A Soto acquisition would be all about his bat, however, and his glove is shaky enough that increased DH time would be a fine one-year solution if the player is on board.  The cost in young controllable players would be significant, and Soto will earn more than Alonso next year.  I do think the Cubs could pull off a Soto or Alonso trade without parting with Crow-Armstrong.

One variable in all of this is the Cubs’ plan for Christopher Morel.  Morel put up a strong 119 wRC+ this year in 429 plate appearances with Statcast data to match, though at times his strikeout rate reached dizzying heights.  Though he’s only 24 years old and has the speed and arm to play just about anywhere, the Cubs have yet to find Morel a position.  Morel took about 38% of the team’s DH at-bats, and in his 220-game career he’s played all three outfield spots as well as second base, shortstop, and third base.

From the outside, there’s a pretty obvious long-term solution here: make a major offseason effort to teach the kid to play a competent third base.  Morel was one of six players the Cubs used at the hot corner this year, yet logged only 39 1/3 innings there.  Morel is too young and athletic to be pigeon-holed as a DH, but also doesn’t seem like he’ll flourish in a super-utility role.  If the Cubs don’t think he can play average defense at any position, perhaps Morel will wind up as trade bait.

As poor as this winter’s market is for position players, it does offer a fair number of DH types who should receive short-term contracts, such as Belt, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Garver, and Justin Turner.  Such a player could be a fit for the Cubs as a sort of Trey Mancini replacement.  Like Barnhart, Mancini was released before completing the first year of a two-year deal.

Before we get into one other free agent DH, who has also served as one of the best pitchers on the planet, let’s take a look at the Cubs’ payroll situation.  Under the Ricketts family, the Cubs have reached the competitive balance tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, though the taxes were not actually paid in 2020.  Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer noted to reporters in October that “We’re in a place now where our books are clean long term,” and that “There’s been a willingness [by ownership] to go over [the CBT] in the past.”

The first CBT threshold is $237MM in 2024, and the second is $257MM.  The Cubs did exceed the second threshold in 2019, so a $260MM payroll next year would not be without precedent in a CBT sense.  However, talking to reporters about payroll in October, Tom Ricketts said, “We were aggressive this year.  I think we’ll stay at those levels.”  He was non-committal on exceeding the CBT.

There are several key variables in saying where the Cubs’ payroll will sit when the offseason truly begins, but the one in which I’m least confident is Marcus Stroman’s status.  We’ll get to Stroman shortly, but if Stroman and Smyly stay put, Hendricks and Gomes’ options are exercised, and a few players are non-tendered, the Cubs’ CBT payroll could sit around $211MM.  That’d drop to around $188MM if Stroman opts out.  It’d be difficult for the Cubs to sign Shohei Ohtani and add other needed pieces without getting into the $260MM range.  I don’t think that’s likely, but let’s talk Ohtani anyway.

Back in 2017, the Theo Epstein-led Cubs made a strong enough initial pitch to Ohtani to be one of the player’s seven finalists – the only one located in the Midwest.  Aside from geography, the lack of the DH in the NL at the time was a major stumbling block.  Now, the Cubs have a DH spot and Ohtani will be a free agent without contract restrictions.  Ohtani had elbow surgery in September and will not pitch until 2025, yet we still believe he’ll require an average annual value in excess of $40MM and a contract exceeding $500MM.

The Dodgers figure to loom large on Ohtani, as a perennial contender that plays on the West Coast.  The Cubs can’t do anything about where they play, and one 83-win season hardly positions them as a regular contender.  It’s possible that most of the other teams bidding on Ohtani also can’t make a strong claim as a perennial contender.  So I think beyond a huge contract offer that I’m not convinced the Cubs would make, the team would have to assure Ohtani that they’re adding other key pieces this winter and will project to regularly make the playoffs.

It’s been four years since the Cubs actually paid the CBT, and six since they’ve signed a top-two free agent.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation player, and this might be the only offseason in which he’s technically available to any team.  It’s possible the Cubs are planning a run at Ohtani, but they don’t seem like a favorite.

As I mentioned, Stroman’s opt-out decision is tough to predict after a season in which he started quite strong but tanked in his last 11 outings and somehow fractured his rib cage cartilage.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about this a few weeks ago for Front Office subscribers.  The points in favor of the opt-out, according to Anthony: “It’s possible he’d prefer to take the strong one-year salary, stay in a place where he’s comfortable, and bet on better health when he’d be a true free agent next winter.”  Anthony went on to counter, “That said, I don’t think it’s quite as likely as many Cub fans might expect. While Stroman’s value is down, there’d still be multi-year offers on the table if he did test the market. While they might come at a lower annual salary than $21MM, the overall guarantee should be strong enough to make opting out still worthwhile.”  Recent precedent in favor of Stroman opting out: Nathan Eovaldi turning down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox to sign a two-year, $34MM deal.

Justin Steele made a run at the Cy Young this year in a breakout season.  Jameson Taillon disappointed in his first year as a Cub, but his peripheral stats suggest he can get back to the low-4.00s ERA pitcher the team thought they were getting.  Ricketts indicated Hendricks will likely return, which makes sense after a solid bounceback season.  If Stroman stays, that’d be four rotation spots locked up with veteran arms.  Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski could compete for the fifth starter job, with Drew Smyly around in a swingman role.  Top pitching prospect Cade Horton reached Double-A this year and could make the leap to the bigs at some point in 2024.  Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian could be in the mix as well, though they did not have success at Triple-A this year.

The Cubs’ 4.26 rotation ERA ranked sixth in the National League.  Running mostly the same group out there in 2024 wouldn’t be exciting, but it’s not out of the question.  Even if Stroman stays, I can see the Cubs making some sort of rotation addition to improve their depth.  But I assume they wouldn’t mind the payroll flexibility they’d gain if he opts out, and would become more aggressive in the market in that case.

The free agent market for starting pitching this winter looks strong, led by 25-year-old Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Yamamoto checks a lot of boxes for the Cubs, much like Seiya Suzuki did.  Yamamoto is in the prime of his career, which is almost never the case for a free agent starter.  A team could reduce his AAV by stretching the years to eight or so, and they’d still only be committing through his age-32 season.  Plus, the posting fee paid to the Buffaloes doesn’t count against the CBT.  Hoyer took a scouting trip to Japan in September, where Yamamoto and lefty Shota Imanaga were among the players he saw.

As risky as a $200MM+ deal for Yamamoto could be, the rest of the top end of the free agent market would also require a leap of faith, with players like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and possibly Eduardo Rodriguez.  The trade market doesn’t feature a ton of obvious targets, aside from perhaps Shane Bieber.

The Cubs’ makeshift bullpen also ranked sixth in the NL in ERA.  The group had the NL’s highest strikeout and walk rates, so it was a mixed bag.  David Ross leaned the hardest on Adbert Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., and Julian Merryweather in the second half.  MLBTR projects the trio to earn less than $6MM in total next year, so the Cubs have good value there.  Alzolay, 29 in March, broke out as the team’s closer this year but hit the IL at a key point in September with a forearm strain.  The wheels started wobbling on Leiter and Merryweather as well.

Out of desperation, Ross also used Jose Cuas, Smyly, Daniel Palencia, and Javier Assad in key spots in September.  They’ll all be in the mix next year.  Lefty Brandon Hughes should be back after missing most of the season due to knee surgery.  On his way back from March 2022 Tommy John surgery, Codi Heuer had June surgery to repair an elbow fracture.  His timeline is currently unknown.

Hoyer’s bargain-buy veterans last winter were Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  Both were non-factors this year due to injuries and ineffectiveness.  The Cubs haven’t signed a reliever to a multiyear deal since Craig Kimbrel in June of 2019, instead preferring cheap one-year deals in recent offseasons.

In trying to predict the Cubs’ offseason, payroll is the biggest consideration.  If the Cubs are to run, say, a $235MM CBT payroll and Stroman stays put, they’d have an estimated $24MM in AAV to add this winter.  That wouldn’t be a ton of wiggle room, in contrast to the $88MM in AAV the Cubs added last winter.  With Bellinger possibly departing, it’s tough to see the Cubs improving upon 2023 without a notable payroll increase.

Leody Taveras Prolongs His Breakout Season Into the Playoffs

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Leody Taveras was always a glove-first prospect. Evaluators praised his long strides, top-tier sprint speed, and powerful arm, with Baseball America naming him the best defensive outfielder in the Rangers system three years in a row. He showed potential in his bat, too, but never quite reached his ceiling in the minor leagues. However, if you’d only seen Taveras play in the 2023 postseason, you’d never guess that his bat was once such a question mark.

The 25-year-old has started in center field for all seven of the Rangers’ playoff games thus far. He has taken 29 trips to the plate and reached base 14 times; among those still active in the postseason, only Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Trea Turner have reached base more often. Taveras has drawn six walks, slapped five singles, and recorded one of each flavor of extra-base hit. He’s 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts, and he hasn’t struck out since Game 1 of the ALDS. Overall, his slash line sits at .348/.483/.609, good for a 199 wRC+. Needless to say, those aren’t numbers you expect to see from a “glove-first” center fielder.

Taveras wasn’t nearly as successful with the bat during the regular season (nor is he likely to sustain his monstrous postseason slash line), but he did take a meaningful step forward at the plate. In his first full season, he slashed .266/.312/.421, career highs in all three categories. What’s more, he brought his strikeout rate down below league average and finally tapped into the raw power evaluators always saw in his profile. His average exit velocity went up, he refined his launch angles, and he hit more barrels than in his first three seasons combined. In 143 games, the switch-hitter slugged 14 home runs and 31 doubles, and he legged out three triples to boot.

While Taveras went through a rough patch in the second half, slashing .191/.224/.316 during the first six weeks after the All-Star break, he turned things around in September. Over his final 26 games, he went 26-for-84, hitting .310 and producing a 126 wRC+. Even the best hitters go through slumps, and the good ones have the resilience to come out swinging on the other side.

Altogether, his regular season offensive numbers add up to a 98 wRC+. That’s two percent worse than the league-average hitter, but it’s worth considering that Taveras plays a premium defensive position. According to FanGraphs, primary center fielders produced a 98 wRC+ this season, making Taveras perfectly average for his position. Average offense is more than enough for a player who also boasts elite speed and an excellent glove.

Indeed, Taveras proved to be a five-tool player in 2023. He stole 14 bases with his 92nd-percentile sprint speed, and he graded out as a strong defender by nearly every metric available. The Rangers’ center fielder posted a .997 fielding percentage, 3 Defensive Runs Saved, and 6 Outs Above Average. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 85th percentile in overall fielding run value, thanks to his strong arm and quick reactions in the outfield.

After his breakout campaign in 2023, the Rangers are surely hoping Taveras will be their center fielder for the foreseeable future. Still just 25 years old, he won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2025 season, and he won’t reach free agency for another three years after that. Leody Taveras can’t maintain his postseason performance forever, but if he keeps playing like he did this past season, the Rangers certainly won’t complain.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
  • Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa

Free Agents

For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.

In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.

The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.

Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.

This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.

The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.

If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.

Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.

Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.

That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.

Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.

The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.

Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.

If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.

Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.

Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.

The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.

Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.

The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.

Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.

Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.

The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.

If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.

Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.

No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.

Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.

There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.

As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

What should the Twins do with Jorge Polanco?
Trade him 56.54% (2,230 votes)
Keep him 43.46% (1,714 votes)
Total Votes: 3,944

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins finally snapped their ignominious playoff drought, breaking an 18-game postseason losing streak by sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. After being eliminated by the defending champions in the second round, they turn their attention to an offseason that could see some turnover among what was arguably the sport’s best rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $10.5MM option on 2B Jorge Polanco ($1MM buyout); deal also includes ’25 team option
  • Club holds $10MM option on RF Max Kepler ($1MM buyout)

2024 financial commitments (assuming both options exercised): $88.025MM
Total future commitments (assuming both options exercised): $358.775MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salaries projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Farmer, Luplow, Alcalá, De León

Free Agents

After disappointing seasons in 2021-22, the Twins returned to October. Minnesota’s 87 wins were enough to handily take the AL Central in another down year. After knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round, Minnesota dropped a four-game Division Series to the Astros. Their efforts to return to the playoffs begin in a couple weeks, with the starting rotation the primary focus.

After years of maligned rotations and quick hooks for starters, Minnesota turned its rotation into an overpowering strength. Only three teams relied on their rotation for more innings. The Twins trailed only the Padres in starting pitcher ERA, while the staff narrowly topped the Rays’ for the highest strikeout rate in the majors.

The team MVP may have been Sonny Gray. The veteran righty pitched to a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He made his third All-Star Game and could secure a top three Cy Young finish for the second time. It was an ideal time for arguably the best season of a very good career, as the 10-year veteran is a few weeks from his first trip to free agency.

Minnesota will make Gray a qualifying offer, which he’ll certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. Gray has spoken positively of the organization, while president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said they’ll remain in contact throughout the offseason. While Minnesota retaining Gray can’t be entirely ruled out, the organization may be reluctant to meet an asking price that should easily top the $63MM secured by Chris Bassitt and could push towards nine figures.

Gray will be joined in free agency by two other Minnesota starters. Dallas Keuchel heads back to the market and likely won’t be retained after posting a 5.97 ERA across 10 outings. More impactful is the potential departure of Kenta Maeda. The 35-year-old has had a strong if volatile few seasons since being acquired from the Dodgers in the Mookie Betts three-team blockbuster. He was the Cy Young runner-up after twirling 11 starts of 2.70 ERA ball during the shortened season. He followed up with an ERA approaching 5.00 in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery towards year’s end. Rehabbing that injury kept him out for all of 2022.

Maeda returned to post a 4.23 ERA through 104 1/3 innings this past season. That’s inflated by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees on April 26, which directly preceded a two-month injured list stay due to a triceps strain. From the time of his return on June 23, Maeda worked to a 3.36 ERA with an excellent 29% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .219/.279/.401 batting line in 88 1/3 frames.

As with Gray, Maeda is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Unlike his rotation mate, Maeda might happily take a one-year deal in the $20.5MM range if the Twins put it on the table. Whether to make him the QO is one of the biggest decisions for Falvey and his front office at the start of the offseason. A full season of Maeda’s second-half production would be well worth that price. Whether he can keep that up for another year is a matter of debate, as he’ll be 36 in April and has a checkered injury history.

The Twins are a mid-market franchise. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they ran a payroll in the $154MM range this year — the #17 figure in the majors. Pending a pair of obvious option decisions (more on those in a bit), they’ll begin the offseason with roughly $88MM in guaranteed contracts for 2024. The arbitration class is projected to tack on around $17MM, although a non-tender of infielder Kyle Farmer would subtract nearly $7MM from that sum.

That should afford the front office some freedom for a lofty one-year salary if they feel Maeda is capable of another strong year. Falvey noted last week that the collapse of Diamond Sports Group — the parent corporation of the Bally Sports TV networks that had carried Twins’ in-market broadcasts — adds some uncertainty to the offseason budget. There’s nothing to suggest the organization is about to dramatically slash payroll, however, and the club did get a boost in the form of four home playoff games this fall.

Whether Gray or Maeda return, three-fifths of the rotation is settled. Pablo López had another excellent year in his first season after being acquired in the Luis Arraez trade. Joe Ryan has a secure hold on a rotation spot despite a rough second half. Righty Bailey Ober had a very strong year to solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm.

Chris Paddack figures to hold the fourth spot. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade just before Opening Day 2022, Paddack made five starts before undergoing the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He was out into September, returning for five relief appearances between the regular season’s final week and the playoffs. Minnesota signed him through 2025 last spring, buying out his first would-be free agent year while giving the righty some stability halfway through his rehab.

The top option beyond that group seems to be right-hander Louie Varland. The 25-year-old (26 in December) has been more effective out of the bullpen than the rotation in his brief MLB career. He had a strong season in the rotation for Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 3.97 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents in 81 2/3 innings. Varland could get a crack at a back-end job out of camp or begin the season in the major league relief corps with the potential to move to the rotation if necessary.

If each of Gray and Maeda walk, Minnesota could go into the middle tiers of free agency for a veteran starter. Players like Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and old friend Kyle Gibson are among the options. Signing a veteran to eat some innings could keep the likes of Varland, Brent Headrick and Simeon Woods Richardson in relief and/or increase the possibility of trading from that group for bullpen or position player depth.

Minnesota’s strong rotation performance is made all the more impressive by the absence of Tyler Mahle. The Twins received just five starts this year from the right-hander, one of their top deadline acquisitions in 2022. That trade turned out to be a major misstep, as both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand look like long-term infielders for the Reds. Mahle battled shoulder issues in 2022 and suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery this May.

That takes him out of consideration for the qualifying offer as he nears free agency for the first time. Mahle should find a two-year deal that gives him up-front security while he rehabs in the short term. A signing team would potentially welcome Mahle back late next season while getting a mid-rotation starter at a below-market price in 2025. It remains to be seen if the Twins would have interest in such an arrangement, which could check in between $15MM and $25MM total.

Minnesota’s bullpen wasn’t as good as the rotation, although it held up well enough. Flame-throwing Jhoan Durán is an elite option in the ninth. Brock Stewart went from unheralded minor league signee to high-leverage weapon. Griffin Jax had a rocky second half but solid peripherals and a decent 3.86 ERA overall. Veteran Caleb Thielbar and rookie Kody Funderburk make for a promising pair of left-handed options.

The Twins could add one more arm in the middle to late innings. Emilio Pagán rebounded from a horrible first season in Minnesota to post a 2.99 ERA while leading the relief corps with 69 1/3 innings. He is headed to free agency, so re-signing Pagán or bringing in another arm to take on that workload should be of interest.

Minnesota’s slate of impending free agents on the position player side is fairly modest. The group is headlined by Michael A. Taylor, who hit 21 home runs while playing customarily strong center field defense following an offseason trade with the Royals. While Taylor’s offensive upside is capped by a poor strikeout and walk profile, the power and glove have made him a low-end regular for the better part of a decade. He should find a multi-year deal this winter.

Taylor’s initial acquisition came as a surprise, since a good portion of Byron Buxton’s value is in his ability to play an elite center field. Buxton battled right knee issues all season and couldn’t play defense, though, spending the entire year as a designated hitter. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery that’ll hopefully allow him to get back on the field in 2024. Given his litany of injuries generally and problems with the knee in particular, Buxton may not be an everyday option in center field at this point.

How comfortable the Twins are with the former Gold Glove winner’s health will play a big role in how they approach the outfield this offseason. Exercising a $10MM option to retain Max Kepler is an obvious call after an excellent second half. The German-born outfielder could return to a regular right field role while offering cover for Buxton in center if Taylor walks. If the Twins aren’t comfortable with Buxton or Kepler assuming regular center field work, retaining Taylor or bringing in someone like Harrison Bader makes sense.

Even if/when they let Joey Gallo depart in free agency, Minnesota will have their typical abundance of left-handed hitting outfielders. The likes of Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon (along with Kepler himself) were the subject of trade speculation both last offseason and at the deadline. Aside from Kepler, Wallner is the only one of the group who has improved his trade value over the past few months.

Kirilloff, who has moved increasingly to first base over the corner outfield, continues to battle injury issues. He spent time on the IL with a right shoulder strain. Continued pain eventually forced him off the playoff roster and will require labrum surgery next week. Kirilloff hit well when healthy — .270/.348/.445 in 88 games — so it’d be a surprise to see the Twins move him while his value is at a low ebb.

Wallner, meanwhile, has settled in nicely as a power bat who can rotate through the corner outfield and DH. That’s the role the organization had envisioned for Larnach, a former first-round draftee who hasn’t hit consistently over parts of three big league seasons. He has performed well despite elevated strikeout tallies in Triple-A and could have appeal to a non-contender that can afford to give him a full season of reps in left field. Gordon, meanwhile, looked like a quality bat-first utility option in 2022 but missed most of this past season with a broken leg.

There’s a similar depth of talent on the infield. The club holds a $10.5MM option on Jorge Polanco, another easy call to exercise. The switch-hitter put together a .255/.335/.454 showing in 80 games and has been an above-average hitter in five of the past six seasons. He can split his time between second and third base. Even if the Twins felt they had enough infield talent to make Polanco expendable, there’d be surplus value on the option. Exercising that provision and trading him is more plausible than declining the option entirely, although the likeliest outcome is simply that they keep him for 2024.

Polanco would split time with a pair of youngsters on the infield. Edouard Julien had an impressive rookie season offensively. He might be better suited for DH or first base than consistent run in the middle infield, but he’ll be in the lineup somewhere.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis seized the third base job with a monster second half, which he carried into the playoffs. Lewis was the Twins’ best player down the stretch and looks like a potential franchise player after returning from a second ACL tear. With five seasons of club control, there’s no urgency for Minnesota to talk extension. Lewis looks like the player the Twins expected when they drafted him six years ago, so they could at least gauge his asking price on a potential early-career deal — as they signed with Polanco and Kepler back in 2019.

Carlos Correa will be back at shortstop. The first season of his $200MM deal didn’t go as planned. Correa had a below-average .230/.312/.399 showing in the worst full year of his career. The two-time All-Star played through plantar fasciitis in his left foot and seemed inhibited for most of the season. They’ll hope an offseason of rest gets him back to his typical level of production.

The combination of Lewis’ return to health and Julien’s emergence could lead the Twins to subtract an infielder. Opening Day third baseman José Miranda has plummeted down the depth chart, although it’s a suboptimal time to trade him coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Farmer and Willi Castro are veteran utility options who are into their arbitration years.

Farmer has the loftier projected salary ($6.6MM against $3.2MM) and played less of a role down the stretch. Assuming the Twins retain Castro, non-tendering or trading Farmer for a minimal return to clear payroll room makes sense. Perhaps they could reallocate that money to Donovan Solano, who hit .282/.369/.391 in 450 plate appearances. He’s headed back to free agency and likely earned a raise over this past season’s $2MM salary. Headed into his age-36 season, he’s likely still looking at one-year offers — whether from the Twins or elsewhere.

There’s little suspense behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers is one of the game’s better catchers. He’ll take the majority of playing time, with Christian Vázquez on hand as a quality #2 option.

Despite the potential loss of this year’s top starter, the Twins are well positioned going into 2024. They won 87 games without much of a contribution from Buxton or Correa and a little more than a third of a season out of Lewis. Even if the starting pitching takes a step back, a lineup that ranked 10th in run scoring this year could push closer to top five with better health from its stars. Whatever they do this winter, they should enter next season as the favorites to repeat in an AL Central that may again be the sport’s least talented division.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Twins-centric chat on 10-17-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: Flores, Manzardo, Bliss, Montgomery, Hassell

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Our coverage of the Arizona Fall League continues. Jakob Marsee remains the top hitter with a 1.442 OPS in 44 plate appearances. The title of top pitcher is less clear. Perhaps it’s 27-year-old southpaw reliever Jake McSteen? He’s worked 4.2 innings of hitless ball with six strikeouts. He hit one batter.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wilmer Flores, 22, SP, DET
(AA) 80.2 IP, 9.15 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Flores performs like someone with a Major League future. He induces plenty of whiffs, limits walks, and generally runs around a 50 percent ground ball rate. Typically, pitchers who can show those three traits go on to have a nice career (health permitting). Sometimes, they have to take the long road like Cristopher Sanchez or Erick Fedde.

My contacts don’t like Flores’ pitch design, though it’s been at least half a year since I’ve received an update on that front. In brief, as of April, his pitches didn’t tunnel well. This is his second stint in the AFL. In three games, all relief appearances, he’s thrown eight innings while allowing nine hits, one walk, one hit batter, one run, and nine strikeouts. Flores is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Barring catastrophe, he’ll soon be on the Tigers 40-man roster. Though he has the look and stuff of a starter, a debut in the bullpen would allow him to ignore those pitch design concerns.

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
(AAA) 415 PA, 17 HR, 1 SB, .237/.337/.464

Widely expected to debut for the Rays in 2023, Manzardo instead turned in a 95 wRC+ for the Durham Bulls. He was traded at the deadline to Cleveland. A lefty-hitter, righty-thrower, Manzardo makes for an unusual first base prospect. At an even six feet tall, he’s on the short end for the position. His discipline- and contact-forward approach isn’t what most clubs crave from the cold corner. Of course, the Guardians are not most teams. They appreciate discipline and high contact rates. It even appears they’ve coached him away from the extreme pulled-contact approach he featured in Durham. He finished the season on a high note for Guardians Triple-A affiliate, batting .256/.348/.590 in 92 plate appearances. In 40 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.390/.657.

Ryan Bliss, 23, 2B, SEA
(AA/AAA) 612 PA, 23 HR, 55 SB, .304/.378/.524

The Mariners acquired Bliss at the trade deadline. He figures to serve a utility role going forward, though he’s only a positive defender at second base. Despite 23 home runs, Bliss has below-average quality of contact. His stolen base total also inflates his speed which is merely above average. The trait that makes him a future big leaguer is his ability to hit breaking pitches. A tiny right-hander, Bliss is susceptible to velocity at the top of the zone. If carefully managed, Bliss could play up in a platoon role. In 26 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .350/.500/.400.

Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
(Cpx/A+/AA) 223 PA, 8 HR, 2 SB, .287/.456/.484

After missing much of the 2023 season, Montgomery bears watching. The White Sox top prospect is among the AFL leaders with three home runs in 35 plate appearances. He’s also yet to record a walk in an OBP-centric league. Even worse, he has 11 strikeouts. My guess is the White Sox sent Montgomery to the AFL to work on power and aggression. He’s always verged on passivity and rarely gets to his power in-game. Strikingly, he seems to maximize for day-to-day performance rather than an eventual Major League outcome. Perhaps these less-than-desirable AFL results represent the proverbial one step back for two steps forward.

Robert Hassell, 22, OF, WSH
(AA) 476 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .225/.316/.324

A precocious fast-riser in the Padres system, Hassell’s star began to dim not long before he was included in the Juan Soto trade. After a little over a year with the Nats, Hassell has scarcely shown a pulse. That extends his .286/.317/.286 batting line in 38 AFL plate appearances. Along with the lack of pop, he also has 11 strikeouts. At the time of the Soto blockbuster, Hassell was a consensus Top 100 prospect. Now it’s hard to find evaluators who believe he has a second act in him. My two cents: he needs to do something to combat his passivity and lift the ball with more authority. That doesn’t mean selling out for power either. Most of his contact is soft and more than half of his batted balls are grounders. Even an increase in line drive singles would go a long way toward him becoming a viable Major Leaguer.

For those hunting for a silver lining, Hassell is credited with gritty-gamer makeup and might have been negatively affected by a hamate injury suffered in the 2022 AFL. Possibly, he’s tinkered in the wrong direction and merely needs a fresh adjustment to get back on track.

Three More

Harry Ford, SEA (20): Ford is disciplined and powerful as evidenced by his seven walks and three home runs in 25 AFL plate appearances. Those dingers represent the total sum of his hitting – he has a .000 BABIP.

Davis Daniel, LAA (26): Daniel is already on the 40-man roster with 12.1 Major League innings to his name. He profiles as a spot starter or middle reliever – the sort that can provide bulk relief. He’s among the top AFL performers with 10 innings, 15 strikeouts, three hits, three walks, and one run allowed.

Jacob Berry, MIA (22): A former sixth-overall pick from the 2022 draft, Berry is a switch-hitting designated hitter who has looked overmatched at every level. The AFL offers him an opportunity to work with new coaches and possibly get his career back on track. Presently, he’s on the exit ramp.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Michael Harris II Has Built On His Rookie Of The Year Campaign

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The breakout performance of center fielder Michael Harris II was one of the most exciting storylines for the Braves last season. The 21-year-old rookie was called up to the big leagues at the end of May in 2022 and never looked back, slashing a fantastic .297/.339/.514 in 441 trips to the plate while swiping 20 bases and playing excellent defense in center field. That performance earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors in addition to a few downballot MVP votes, despite the youngster only appearing in 114 games that season.

The Braves saw enough in Harris’s performance to ink the youngster to an eight-year, $72MM extension before his rookie season had even come to a close, and it’s easy to see why. After all, Harris’ 134 wRC+ ranked in the top-25 among all major league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, and his defense in center field was nothing short of superlative. Only Victor Robles, Myles Straw, and Michael A. Taylor outperformed Harris’s +8 Defensive Runs Saved last year among center fielders, while his +7 Outs Above Average left Harris tied with Cody Bellinger and Alek Thomas for sixth-most among center fielders with at least 250 attempts last year.

That being said, there were potential red flags in Harris’s profile last season that made it fair to wonder if he could replicate his excellent offensive season going forward. Of those, the biggest one was perhaps his strikeout rate. Of the 36 players who posted a wRC+ higher than 130 last season (min. 400 PA), just three of them struck out more often than Harris’s 24.3% rate: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. Harris, who hit 19 home runs in 2022 and posted an ISO of just .217, did not have the titanic power of that aforementioned trio with which to make up for his swing and miss tendencies. In addition, Harris’s 4.8% walk rate was by far the lowest of the bunch. In fact, Harris actually ranked in just the 11th percentile in all of baseball last year in terms of walk rate, per Statcast.

It’s easy to see why Harris was striking out so much. Harris swung at a whopping 41.7% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone while making contact on just 59.7% of those swings. Only Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, and Michael Chavis swung and missed at more pitches outside of the zone last year. Harris’s free-swinging approach isn’t helped by pitches in the zone much, either. The youngster posted a roughly average 67.9% swing rate on pitches inside the zone, and his 86.2% contact rate on pitches in the zone was actually slightly below league average last year. Between Harris’s reckless swing decisions and middling power numbers, it was easy to see how he could regress significantly headed into 2023. Advanced metrics agreed with that assessment, as Harris’s .368 wOBA noticeably outstripped his .335 xwOBA in 2022.

Early in the 2023 campaign, it appeared that Harris was indeed destined for a serious sophomore slump. After missing most of April due to a back injury, Harris looked brutal at the plate through the beginning of June. In his first 138 plate appearances of the season, Harris posted a brutal .163/.246/.244 slash line with a 25.4% strikeout rate and just two home runs. That being said, he was still playing his typical excellent defense and had an uncharacteristically low .207 BABIP. That was enough for the Braves to stick with their struggling youngster despite his abysmal start with the bat.

The club’s patience paid off, as Harris hit a phenomenal .335/.360/.552 the rest of the way. That impressive slash line is good for a 142 wRC+, the sixteenth-best figure in the majors over that span and on par with the likes of Bellinger and Bryce Harper. Perhaps most exciting is Harris’s improvement in terms of strikeout rate, as he punched out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances during that 100-game stretch. While Harris continued to swing too often- his 42.3% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone was ninth-highest in the majors, even during that torrid stretch- he made far more contact on those swings. Harris made contact on a whopping 69.8% of swings on pitches outside the strike zone while posting a 89.1% contact rate on pitches in the zone.

Taken together, Harris’s improvements in contact rate allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 18.7% on the year good for the 71st percentile among qualified hitters. Though his cold stretch to open the year left his overall season numbers to fall short of his rookie season, as he posted a wRC+ of just 115 on the year, Harris’s peripherals in 2023 are a far better match for his production, indicating he should be able to sustain this level of offensive production going forward. In fact, Harris’s .345 wOBA in 2023 is actually ten points lower than his .355 xwOBA, indicating there could even be a small amount of positive regression in Harris’s future, if he’s able to build on his improved contact rates in 2024.

MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

———————

So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Which Contract Looks The Best For 2024 And Beyond
Trea Turner 43.68% (3,012 votes)
Dansby Swanson 35.43% (2,443 votes)
Carlos Correa 11.54% (796 votes)
Xander Bogaerts 9.34% (644 votes)
Total Votes: 6,895
Show all

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