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Mets Notes: Warthen, Collins, Catching

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The latest from Citi Field…

  • The Mets are expected to part ways with long-time pitching coach Dan Warthen, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  Warthen has been in his current role since June 2008 and had originally intended to retire after the season, though the Mets’ struggles caused Warthen to want one more year so as to go out on a higher note.  Two internal candidates (bullpen coach Ricky Bones and minor league pitching coordinator Ron Romanick) are the top picks to replace Warthen, while Triple-A pitching coach Frank Viola is not under consideration and may not remain with the organization.  Puma also listed former A’s pitching coach Curt Young and Red Sox director of pitching development Brian Bannister as external candidates who could receive consideration.
  • There has been wide speculation that Terry Collins won’t return as the Mets’ manager in 2018, though Collins tells The Record’s Matt Ehalt that he has no plans to retire.  “I said it a couple years ago, I didn’t know how long I wanted to manage, what could be my last year — I never said anything that I was going to retire.  I always wanted to work until I was 70.  That’s two more years,” Collins said.  While best known as a manager, Collins has worked in a wide variety of roles over his long career in baseball and said he is open to continuing in one of many jobs at the MLB or minor league level, though his preference is to remain with the Mets.
  • Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki have both been hitting well since the two catchers began to evenly split the playing time last month, leading MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo to speculate that the Mets could benefit by continuing this timeshare in 2018.  D’Arnaud has long been plagued by injuries, so reducing his workload would help keep him healthier and theoretically more productive.  The catch could be if Plawecki is able to keep up his respectable hitting numbers over the course of a full season, as the backstop has been unable to duplicate his good minor league numbers at the MLB level.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Collins, Wittgren

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The Mets are indeed preparing to tender righty Matt Harvey a contract, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined the matter just yesterday, explaining why the club likely sees the 28-year-old as a worthwhile investment despite his marked struggles. GM Sandy Alderson had already made that rather clear, but Heyman suggests it’s all but a done deal and adds some context. New York, he says, may mostly plan to rely on the team’s slate of internal rotation options while investing instead in the bullpen.

More from the NL East:

  • It seems likely the Mets will move on from Terry Collins, as we’ve also heard recently, but Mike Puma of the New York Post gives the clearest indication yet that the veteran skipper will probably depart. Per the report, ownership is not expected to override the baseball ops department, which seemingly intends to notify Collins of its decision shortly. The club’s precise plans for the potential managerial vacancy remain unknown, though Puma says it’s fairly likely that New York will look to bring in a new skipper that has previous “ties to the organization.” He lists Robin Ventura, Alex Cora, Kevin Long, Bob Geren, and Chip Hale as potential candidates.
  • Marlins righty Nick Wittgren underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, as he himself tweeted. Notably, Wittgren fills us in on one underappreciated aspect of the work of Dr. James Andrews: the famed surgeon was thoughtful enough to send his patient home with the malevolent spur. Wittgren, 26, will have a full offseason to get healthy (as well as a new trophy). He had an interesting 2017 season, recording 9.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 42 1/3 innings, but managed only a 4.68 ERA. As the Miami organization looks for ways to make its roster leaner, Wittgren holds out some hope of providing useful relief innings at a budget rate of pay.

Tendering A Contract To Matt Harvey

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As part of our ongoing MLBTR Mailbag series, we’ve decided to begin branching off frequent topics of interest and expanding upon them at greater length than we’d normally spend in one post that answers four to six separate questions. This will be the first of several such posts to follow in the new format, and you can submit questions for consideration here via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.

Why would the Mets not non-tender Matt Harvey? Are 7.00-ERA pitchers with upside really that hard to find? Or is there an emotional/attachment thing going on? — Josh M.

Josh isn’t the only person with this sentiment — especially based on the comments in the wake of GM Sandy Alderson’s suggestion that the Mets will indeed tender a contract to Harvey this winter.

The frustration that Mets fans feel with the performance of the former “Dark Knight” and Harvey’s own frustration (which he’s voiced on multiple occasions) are understandable. To borrow from Harvey’s own blunt self-evaluation, he’s been “terrible all the way around” in 2017 — his first season back from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer. That operation was the second major surgery in Harvey’s career, as he also had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 campaign.

The attrition rate following TOS surgery seems to be greater than after Tommy John surgery, and Harvey is one of the only pitchers in recent memory to have both operations in such close proximity. Viewed through that lens, this season’s 6.60 ERA through 88 2/3 innings perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprising. Harvey has been working with diminished velocity (though it’s been trending up lately) and has posted career-worst K/9 (6.5) and BB/9 (4.5) marks while averaging 2.03 HR/9. It has not, to put it mildly, been a very good season.

That said, it’s been just two years since Harvey came back from TJS to throw 189 1/3 innings in the regular season with a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Harvey further rose to the occasion with 26 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball in the postseason (though Mets fans will forever debate Terry Collins’ decision to leave him in for the ninth inning of a Game 5 against the Royals). Simply put, from 2012-15, Harvey was one of the best young pitchers on the planet. Even his 2016 season, which ended with a disappointing 4.86 ERA and his eventual TOS procedure, featured solid K/BB numbers and a 3.47 FIP.

To the greater point here, it is indeed possible to find passable arms at bargain one-year rates in free agency. However, Harvey is in for at best a modest raise on this season’s $5.125MM salary. Looking back over the past few offseasons, the free agent starters that have signed one-year deals worth less than $6MM include: Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum (mid-season in 2016), Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Aaron Harang. Weaver was 34 when he signed his deal (and retired partway through the 2017 season). One could argue that Lincecum or perhaps Beachy carried significant upside, but both were returning from serious injuries, were older than Harvey and were further removed from success than Harvey is now.

Last offseason, Derek Holland signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the White Sox after throwing a combined 203 innings from 2013-16. With all due respect to Holland, his upside isn’t on par with that of Harvey. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross also signed for one year and $6MM after undergoing his own TOS surgery. If Ross was able to find $6MM on the heels of a season he spent entirely on the DL — his lone appearance in 2016 came on Opening Day — that should be an indication that paying a younger Harvey at a roughly comparable rate isn’t exactly an overpay by market standards.

Moreover, if the 2017 season proved anything, it’s that the Mets need to stockpile as many reasonably priced arms and rotation depth options as possible. With injuries to Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman impacting the staff at various points throughout the season, it doesn’t seem prudent to be cutting ties with a fairly inexpensive young arm. If anything, the Mets will probably aim to bring in some low-cost veterans on minor league deals that could be stashed at Triple-A and emerge as big league options in 2018 should their injury issues persist.

NL East Notes: Conforto, Harper, Braves

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The latest from the NL East:

  • Mets outfielder Michael Conforto suggested Saturday that he’s unsure if he’ll be able to slot into the team’s lineup on Opening Day next year, according to James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link). Conforto suffered a torn capsule in his left shoulder in late August, ending his season, and then underwent surgery earlier this month. The 24-year-old noted that the procedure should help stave off future shoulder dislocations, which would certainly be optimal for him and the Mets. Conforto emerged as a breakout performer and one of the few bright spots for the woebegone Mets before the injury, hitting .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs in 440 plate appearances. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said on the heels of Conforto’s surgery that the club’s optimistic he won’t have to alter his swing upon returning. He’s roughly six months away from resuming baseball activities.
  • Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper is “very close” to making his highly anticipated return, manager Dusty Baker told Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com and other reporters Saturday. Harper, out since Aug. 13 with injuries to his left knee and calf, could be back in Washington’s lineup as early as Monday, per Zuckerman. That would give the superstar a week to readjust to game action before the Nationals’ NLDS matchup against a to-be-determined opponent (likely the Cubs).
  • The Braves’ previously reported agreement with Korean shortstop prospect Jihwan Bae became an official signing Saturday, according to Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Braves have high hopes for the 18-year-old Bae, whom special assistant Chad MacDonald heaped praise on Saturday. “It’s an elite runner, top-of-the-scale runner,” MacDonald said. “He’s very athletic. He stays at shortstop, he’s going to be a solid to plus defender there. His bat-to-ball skills are really good. There’s more power in the bat. If everything clicks, we have a left-handed version of Trea Turner, who I signed in San Diego. Again, maybe not that much power, but certainly the impact speed and defense, with bat-to-ball skills and a left-handed hitter.” As MacDonald mentioned, he was in the Padres’ front office when they inked Turner after selecting him 13th in the 2014 draft. Turner has since blossomed into a star with the Nats.

NL East Notes: Kelley, Ausmus, Mets, Teheran, Braves

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Shawn Kelley left during the eighth inning of last night’s Nationals game due to an arm injury that left him with a badly-swollen right hand.  “Just on that last pitch I felt something go down through my arm and my hand swelled up a bit,” Kelley told media, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  “I just didn’t feel like I could pitch another pitch honestly. I couldn’t really grip the ball. I motioned for somebody to come out because I knew it wasn’t good.”  Kelley will meet with doctors today to evaluate the problem, which is particularly ominous given that Kelley has twice undergone Tommy John surgery.  The veteran right-hander has had two separate DL stints due to a bad back and a trap strain, and these injury issues have very likely impacted Kelley’s subpar performance.  Kelley has a 7.27 ERA over 26 innings this season, with huge spikes in his homer rate and hard-hit ball rate.  As Janes notes, Kelley may not have made the Nats’ playoff roster even if healthy, though the team will have one less bullpen option to choose from if Kelley is indeed hurt.

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • Brad Ausmus won’t be returning as the Tigers’ manager next year, though Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports that some in the Mets front office are interested in speaking with Ausmus.  New York has also been rumored to be making a managerial change, and will likely look into several different candidates if it does indeed move on from the Terry Collins era.  It’s also possible that the Mets’ interest in Ausmus may not necessarily involve managing; Ausmus also worked as a special assistant in the Padres’ baseball ops department before taking the Tigers job.
  • Also from Gammons’ piece, he expects the Braves to be listening to offers for Julio Teheran during the GM Meetings in November.  Teheran drew some trade buzz this past summer, with Atlanta reportedly holding onto Teheran since it was unable to land another top-tier arm to replace the right-hander as the rotation’s ace.  Teheran has struggled to a 4.52 ERA over 175 1/3 IP this season, though that inflated number has been due to a lack of success at SunTrust Park — Teheran has a 6.23 ERA at home this season and a 2.84 ERA on the road.  While Teheran’s swinging-strike and contact rates have also gone in the wrong direction, between his controllable contract and the idea that he would rebound in another ballpark, the Braves would certainly garner quite a bit of interest in trade talks.
  • Braves CEO and chairman Terry McGuirk told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and other media that the team won’t make any management decisions until after the season is over, though McGuirk did praise manager Brian Snitker and president of baseball operations John Hart.  McGuirk expects Hart, whose deal is up after the season, to return in 2018.  The Braves hold a club option on Snitker’s services for next year, though there has been speculation that the team could be exploring a change in the dugout, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman hearing from a source that the Braves are currently “leaning toward” hiring a new manager.  Snitker will meet with the front office to learn about his future, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that this meeting could take place as soon as today.

Latest On Mets’ Plans For Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins

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The Mets will attempt to work out a new contract with general manager Sandy Alderson to keep him for 2018 and (presumably) beyond, according to a report from Kristie Ackert. The fate of manager Terry Collins, though, is less clear — with signs suggesting it’s not expected he’ll be back.

Contracts for both organizational leaders are up at the end of the year. The pair has been in charge since the start of the 2011 campaign, overseeing a rise and then sudden collapse in the team’s competitiveness. While the hope remains that the roster will spring back to life in 2018, it seems that Alderson will be looking for a new manager to lead the troops.

Alderson himself declined to comment on the managerial situation. But Ackert cites team sources that suggest there’s an internal expectation that Collins will retire. Per the report, the Mets have already begun thinking of alternatives to the veteran skipper — Ackert runs through a few notable names at the link — even if Collins himself may not quite be ready to hang ’em up on his own volition.

Many have speculated that 2017 could be the last run for Collins, who is 68 years of age, though few saw the season going the way it has. The Mets went to the World Series in 2015 and overcame challenges to reach the postseason last year as well. But a series of devastating injuries robbed the 2017 team of any hopes of repeating.

There’s no reasonable way that Collins could have reversed that course by himself, though (like all managers) he has had his share of detractors over the years. The organization may well prefer an alternative, though, regardless of Collins’s own intentions. Ackert says that the club would like to find a newcomer that is “more technologically savvy and more fluent in analytics and sabermetrics.”

While the Mets will no doubt focus in on this important decision, it’s just one of many facing the organization. Soon after the end of the season, decisions are due on Asdrubal Cabrera and Jerry Blevins. The Mets have a lot of payroll space but also quite a few roster needs — along with a long list of medical unknowns in the rotation.

Sandy Alderson Suggests Mets Will Likely Retain Matt Harvey For 2018

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Despite the increasingly worrying health issues and pitching struggles of former Mets ace Matt Harvey, the club isn’t ready to give up on his talent. As GM Sandy Alderson tells Mike Puma of the New York Post, “it’s high unlikely that we’re not going to bring [Harvey] back next year.”

Harvey is still just 28 years old and isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s most dominant starters. If there was concern when he limped to a 4.86 ERA in 17 starts last year, though, it’s all the more pressing now that he has surrendered 6.59 earned per nine through the same number of outings in the current season.

The enigmatic righty has averaged less than five frames per start while managing only 6.6 K/9 against an uncharacteristic 4.5 BB/9. He has seen his velocity waver over the course of the season (with an average that’s down one mph from last year and two mph from the prior season). And his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to 7.5% and yet more arm problems have arisen during the year.

Despite all that, New York evidently sees value in tendering Harvey a contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility. And that’s really not surprising. Harvey will get at least a marginal raise on this year’s $5.125MM arb salary, but the bill will remain well within range of the one-year guarantees that other interesting bounceback type pitchers command in free agency.

While there’s some risk in paying Harvey, notes Puma, there’s probably even greater risk to the front office if it lets him find his form elsewhere. And it isn’t as if the team can’t use the possible innings that Harvey will be expected to provide; talent and uncertainty abound in the rest of the staff, too.

For now, Alderson says, the club will “keep running him out there and see what happens.” It seems that’ll be the approach in 2018 as well — so long as the Mets don’t find a surprise trade and Harvey shows enough promise in camp that he isn’t cut loose to avoid fully guaranteeing his arb payout.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Syndergaard, Prado, Braves

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Mets righty Matt Harvey turned in another abysmal start last night, leaving him with a 13.19 ERA in his four outings since returning from the DL. As Marc Carig of Newsday writes, Harvey seemed rather dejected after the game, calling his work “terrible all the way around” — though, perhaps, there’s at least some cause for hope in the fact that he is working in the mid-nineties with his fastball. Of course, that’s hardly sufficient in and of itself, and the results have been sobering. “Everybody’s watching,” said Harvey. “I don’t really know what there is to say except for there is nothing to say. It’s terrible. It’s not fun. There’s really nothing to say. There’s no reason for questions. There’s no answers.”

  • Meanwhile, the Mets are still waiting to see just how fellow righty Noah Syndergaard will look when he returns to the majors after a long layoff for a partial lat tear. As Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, though, it’s likely at this point that Syndergaard will only be allowed to make two appearances. It had been hoped at one point that he’d be able to make a much more significant return to end the year, but the club has understandably exercised caution. The young ace, after all, is a critically important member of a pitching staff that possesses many questions heading into the offseason.
  • It’s now unlikely that Marlins third baseman Martin Prado will make it back for any significant playing time before the end of the 2017 season, Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel reports. The veteran has been trying to return from knee surgery, but his rehab efforts were interrupted by Hurricane Irma. Whether or not he can suit up, it seems promising at least that the 33-year-old seems to have bounced back fairly well from the procedure. After all, he’s still promised another $28.5MM over the next two seasons.
  • The Braves appear to be closing in on yet another stadium deal with significant taxpayer money involved. As Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, construction on a new Spring Training facility in North Port, Florida will begin in short order — if the deal is approved today by the city’s commissioners. In addition to the well-documented move to SunTrust Park for the major-league club, the Braves have found accommodating local governments to help build stadiums for several team-owned minor-league affiliates in recent years. This latest project, in Sarasota County, has already ballooned to just over $100MM in projected costs — just over half of which will be the responsibility of the ballclub.

NL Notes: Hutchison, Plawecki, Chatwood, Lamb

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Following this weekend’s outright of Drew Hutchison, Pirates GM Neal Huntington spoke to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the decision to move on from the right-hander, who is now very likely to become a free agent at season’s end. While Hutchison was the lone return the Pirates received in exchange for dumping Francisco Liriano’s contract and sending two prospects to the Blue Jays, Huntington indicated that he’s been passed on the depth chart by other arms. “We traded for him with the idea that he was a controllable, young starter that could fill a rotation spot for years to come,” said Huntington. “We just also decided this year that the growth and development of our guys put them ahead of him.” The Pirates have relied heavily upon Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault and Tyler Glasnow to make starts behind Gerrit Cole, Ivan Nova and Jameson Taillon this season. With Hutchison eligible for arbitration this winter, the lack of room in the rotation makes his removal from the 40-man roster is essentially the same as non-tendering him several months in advance.

A bit more from the NL…

  • Kevin Plawecki’s improved play in Triple-A made the Mets feel comfortable letting Rene Rivera go on a waiver claim to the Cubs last month, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post, and his solid production in the Majors now leaves him feeling less concerned about losing his roster spot. The 26-year-old admitted to pressing too much in the past to “try to make some things happen” but said he’s in a different mental state this time around. “[W]hat has been different this time is just trusting what I have been doing all season [in Triple-A] and not having that thought in the back of my head, ‘How long am I going to be here and how big of a window do I have to prove myself?’” Mets GM Sandy Alderson has previously suggested that the Mets are unlikely to pursue catching upgrades this winter, meaning Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud figure to play prominent roles with the 2018 club. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Plawecki is hitting .283/.387/.482 in 17 games.
  • Right-hander Tyler Chatwood tells Nick Groke of the Denver Post that he wasn’t pleased when the Rockies demoted him to a relief role earlier this summer, but he used the frustration as motivation to reclaim his rotation spot. The 27-year-old acknowledged that his mechanics had been off, specifically when it comes to his two-seam fastball — his best pitch. Chatwood made clear that he views himself as a starting pitcher, which is notable for an impending free agent that looks to be finishing the season strongly. He’s allowed one run in 13 2/3 innings since moving back into the rotation and has an overall 1.54 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 60 percent ground-ball rate over his past nine appearances (23 1/3 innings).
  • Jake Lamb’s struggles against left-handed pitching are beginning to cost him at-bats, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Lamb has only started four of the D-backs’ past 10 games against a southpaw, with trade pickup Adam Rosales garnering the other six starts at third base. Lamb’s troubles would be particularly problematic in a postseason series against the Dodgers, Piecoro points out, as Los Angeles could send lefties Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood to the mound in a short series. Lamb is hitting just .146/.271/.301 with a 34 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season. Speculatively speaking, it’s worth wondering if the D-backs would pursue a platoon partner this offseason as well, though a fully healthy Diamondbacks roster would also have more options to help out at third base.

AL East Notes: Betts, Otani, Yankees, Mets, Pomeranz

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Mookie Betts left today’s game in the fifth inning due to a bruised right thumb, suffered when his own helmet was knocked off by a Lucas Duda tag attempt and landed on the thumb.  X-rays were negative and Betts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Connor Mount) that he hopes to play as soon as tomorrow.  Betts also added that he has been dealing with nagging thumb problems “for a couple months” but it hasn’t been serious enough to keep him off the field.  While this doesn’t look like a major injury, Betts is such a major part of the Red Sox lineup that his condition bears mention as the team heads towards a likely postseason appearance.  Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays have put particular effort into scouting Shohei Otani but realistically, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes that Toronto looks unlikely to sign the two-way star.  On the plus side for the Jays, Otani has worked out with former Blue Jay fan favorite Munenori Kawasaki and the team seems willing to let Otani both pitch and hit.  Beyond those positives, however, the Jays’ relative lack of history in the Japanese player market would seem to put them behind others in the running for Otani’s services.
  • Less than a year after the Yankees and Mets signed Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes to multi-year free agent deals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post doubts either team would make those signings again given how both stars underachieved in 2017.  Injuries played a part in both players’ performance, of course, and there is still lots of time for Chapman and Cespedes to deliver on their contracts.  In Chapman’s case, his relative struggles also haven’t kept the Yankees from leading the AL wild card race.  With Chapman owed $60MM through the 2021 season, however, it’s still an ominous sign for the Yankees that this down year came in the first season of that deal.
  • The Drew Pomeranz trade is looking like a win for Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes.  After the controversial deal with the Padres last year that saw top prospect Anderson Espinosa go to San Diego, Pomeranz was plagued by injury problems that continued into the offseason.  This year, however, Pomeranz has delivered a 3.28 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 159 1/3 innings, emerging as a much-needed stabilizer to a rotation that has been without David Price for much of the season.
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