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Mariners Sign J.P. Crawford To Extension

By Tim Dierkes | April 8, 2022 at 8:35am CDT

The Mariners have officially announced a contract extension with shortstop J.P. Crawford, which reportedly adds on four additional years and $46.15MM in new money. Crawford, who is now signed through 2026, is represented by Wasserman.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the deal, worth $51MM in total, starts this year and buys out two free agent seasons. Crawford had already agreed to a $4.85MM contract for 2022. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has the financial breakdown of the new contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes that the deal does not contain option years and provides details on no-trade provisions.

Crawford, 27, was drafted 16th overall by the Phillies out of high school back in 2013. He was traded to the Mariners with Carlos Santana in December 2018 in a deal that sent Jean Segura to Philadelphia.

Crawford has served as the Mariners’ starting shortstop since that trade. Defense is Crawford’s calling card, as he landed a Gold Glove for his work in the shortened 2020 season. In the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards voting, Crawford ranked sixth. He didn’t particularly shine in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric in ’21, but rated well there in ’20. Crawford did rank seventh among shortstops last year in defensive runs saved.

With the bat, Crawford has steadily ascended to become above average, with a 103 wRC+ in 687 plate appearances last year. That led to a career-best 3.1 FanGraphs WAR, though on a pro-rated basis Crawford was also close to that mark in 2020. Back in November, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made it clear that Crawford would be the team’s starting shortstop for 2022, regardless of who the team ended up pursuing in free agency.

Now, Dipoto has locked up Crawford through the 2026 season. Dipoto said in a statement Friday, “J.P. brings excellent defense at a critical position, in addition to solid on-base skills and a penchant for delivering in the big moment. He’s an incredibly competitive player who has become an integral part of our team, both on the field and in the clubhouse.”

Crawford represents the sixth Mariners player under contract beyond 2022, joining Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suarez, Marco Gonzales, Evan White, and Andres Munoz. The club has about $80MM in commitments for 2023.

It’s been a while since a somewhat glove-first, lower power position player in the three year service bracket signed a contract extension. Back in January 2016, Dee Strange-Gordon signed a five-year, $50MM deal with the Marlins.

Twins Acquire Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan From Padres For Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker

By Steve Adams | April 7, 2022 at 10:40pm CDT

10:33am: The Padres are receiving $6.6MM from the Twins, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That effectively reduces Rogers’ $7.3MM salary to the new $700K league minimum.

10:00am: The Twins saved one more move in their whirlwind offseason for what was scheduled to be Opening Day (before said opener was pushed back to Friday due to weather). Minnesota announced Thursday the acquisition of right-handed starter Chris Paddack and righty reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and first baseman/outfielder Brent Rooker. The Twins will also receive a player to be named later and will send cash to San Diego in the deal. The Padres have also announced the trade.

Minnesota is acquiring a pair of arms under club control for multiple seasons, as Paddack, who is earning $2.25MM in 2021 is only in his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’s controlled through the 2024 campaign. Pagan, meanwhile, is earning $2.3MM this season and is controlled through 2023 via arbitration. Rogers, 31, is set to earn $7.3MM this season in his final year of club control before reaching free agency. Rooker, 27, doesn’t yet have a full year of Major League service and is controllable through the 2027 season.

The 26-year-old Paddack and his three remaining seasons of club control headline the trade for Minnesota. The 2015 eight-rounder broke out as one of the sport’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and delivered on that hype when he posted a 3.33 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate through 140 2/3 innings as a rookie. At that point, Paddack looked like a cornerstone piece for the Friars, and any near-term trade involving him would’ve seemed nearly impossible to fathom.

Paddack, however, has been unable to repeat that brilliant rookie performance. His 2020 campaign resulted in a 4.73 ERA in with a diminished 23.7% strikeout rate. He still worked a “full” slate of 12 starts and 59 innings during the shortened 2020 season, but the results and the underlying metrics weren’t nearly as strong as his 2019 debut. Paddack’s 2021 season represented an even further step back; in 108 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 5.07 ERA with a career-low 21.6% strikeout rate. More concerning, though, was the fact that he ended the season with a low-grade tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.

The Twins are likely convinced that Paddack’s elbow is healthy enough to rely on him as a rotation piece not only in 2022 but for the next several seasons. If that’s the case, they’ll focus their work with Paddack on further developing a third pitch to help him recapture his 2019 form. Paddack averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball last season and has been lauded for his plus changeup since his prospect days, but his curveball has been a below-average pitch for him at the big league level. If the Twins are able to help Paddack establish that third pitch, it stands to reason that his heater and changeup can trend closer to their 2019 effectiveness. There’s potential for a (second) breakout with Paddack, particularly given that his command has remained elite even through his 2020-21 struggles. The extent to which Minnesota can refine that third pitch (or develop an entirely new one) will be telling.

Minnesota is also picking up two years of control over the 30-year-old Pagan — another 2019 standout (with the Rays) who has had harder luck in San Diego. Acquired by the Padres on the heels of a 2.31 ERA with a dominant 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate in 2019, Pagan hasn’t been nearly as effective since being shipped to southern California. In 85 1/3 innings with the Friars, he posted a 4.75 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. Pagan has always been homer-prone, but that flaw ratcheted up to new levels in 2021 when he yielded an average of 2.27 long balls per nine frames.

Despite his recent struggles, however, Pagan has above-average strikeout rates and velocity. And, like Paddack, his command has been nothing short of outstanding (with the exception of the shortened 2020 season). He’s walked just 6.2% of his opponents at the big league level and has yielded only a .210 batting average and .264 on-base percentage in his career. A penchant for serving up home runs has been Pagan’s only real blemish, but if the Twins can clean up that issue — as the Rays did in 2019 and the Mariners did in 2017 — they’ll have a closing-caliber reliever on their hands for the next two seasons.

Coaxing a high-level performance out of Pagan will be all the more crucial for the Twins, as this morning’s trade sends their closer and one of the best left-handed relievers in all of baseball to San Diego. The 31-year-old Rogers has been a triumph in terms of player development for Minnesota, blossoming from a fairly nondescript back-of-the-rotation prospect to a late-inning buzzsaw who has overpowered opponents dating back to the 2018 season.

Rogers, whose twin brother Tyler pitches for his new division rival in San Francisco, added a slider to his repertoire back in 2018 — first debuting the pitch on Memorial Day weekend that year. The change in his results was stunning. Carrying a 5.48 ERA at the time, Rogers pitched to a 1.34 ERA for the remainder of the season and whiffed 57 hitters in 47 innings. There’s been no looking back for him, either. Since debuting that devastating breaking ball on May 31, 2018, Rogers has posted a 2.58 ERA (2.54 SIERA) with a massive 32.5% strikeout rate, a tiny 4.6% walk rate and a hearty 48% grounder rate. He’s been one of the absolute best relievers in MLB during that span, racking up 50 saves and, in 2021, making his first All-Star team.

Dominant as Rogers has been, however, he isn’t without his own medical concerns. The lefty’s 2021 drew to an abrupt close when he exited his appearance on July 26 with discomfort in his left middle finger. It was eventually determined that Rogers had a damaged ligament in his pitching hand. As the Twins are with Paddack, San Diego is clearly banking on the belief that Rogers is healthy and able to bounce back to his typical form. If that’s indeed the case, they’ll be able to turn leads over to one of the game’s more effective relievers for the 2022 season before Rogers reaches free agency in the offseason.

Rooker is the fourth known piece of the deal at this time and gives the Padres a power-hitting corner outfield option who has yet to piece things together at the MLB level. Selected with the No. 35 overall pick back in 2017, the former Mississippi State star breezed through the minor leagues, hitting .263/.359/.516 while showing off his plus raw power. Rooker’s bat will need to carry him at the MLB level, however, as he’s a college first baseman who the Twins tried rather unsuccessfully as a left fielder (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average, -9.7 UZR/150 in 268 career innings).

Rooker has a pair of minor league options remaining and isn’t necessarily an immediate fix to the Padres’ corner outfield woes. He’ll give them an option there, at first base and at designated hitter — one who has light-tower power but also one who has punched out in 32.1% of his 234 big league plate appearances (against just a 6.4% walk rate). The 6’3″, 225-pound Rooker gives San Diego an intriguing power bat but also something of a project, as he’s already 27 years of age and hasn’t yet proven that he can handle big league pitching. Given his lack of defensive value, it’s paramount for the Padres that they put the finishing touches on the development of Rooker’s bat.

The Twins have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter, and while they didn’t add the marquee name many fans hoped, they’ve now acquired both Paddack and Sonny Gray while also signing Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. That quartet will join rookie Opening Day starter Joe Ryan and under-the-radar sophomore Bailey Ober in comprising Minnesota’s main group of starters, but the Twins also have plenty of well-regarded prospects on the horizon. Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino and Cole Sands are all getting close to the big leagues and could debut at some point in 2022.

As for the Padres, they’ll deal from a position of depth in order to strengthen the back end of their bullpen. Paddack has been a regular in the San Diego rotation for the past three seasons but was largely nudged out of the frame by a series of high-profile trade acquisitions. The Friars have added Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger and, most recently, Sean Manaea over the past year-plus, and they also signed righty Nick Martinez to a four-year deal this winter. Add in young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon (who’ll return from Tommy John surgery later this season), and it’s easy to see why they felt comfortable moving Paddack. It’s certainly a risk to sell low on a starter with his upside, but the Friars are adding one of the game’s more successful relievers and clearly have sufficient rotation depth to make a move of this nature.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last night that the two teams were discussing trade scenarios involving Paddack and Rogers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported this morning that a Paddack/Rogers trade was happening. Rosenthal reported that Pagan was in the deal, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Rooker’s inclusion. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune added that the Twins will receive a PTBNL, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweeted that Minnesota was including some cash in the swap.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts Unlikely To Sign Extensions With Red Sox Before Opening Day

By Anthony Franco | April 7, 2022 at 2:18pm CDT

APRIL 7: In a press conference this afternoon, Bogaerts made clear that negotiations on a contract extension have stalled and that he doesn’t intend to sign a new deal before tomorrow’s opener in New York (first reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive; Twitter link). Asked whether he would agree to an extension, he replied simply: “No.” Asked subsequently whether an offer was made, he responded, “Yeah. But it didn’t work out, and we’ll see how it goes from there.”

The shortstop also appeared to rule out the possibility of in-season negotiation, adding, “I can’t do nothing about it right now. I’ve got a season coming up in front of me and I don’t want to put any of our teammates in that type of distraction. They don’t deserve it. We had time to get something done. It didn’t work out.”

As noted below, Bogaerts can opt out of the three years and $60MM that remain on his contract at the end of the 2022 season. He’d be entering a potentially crowded shortstop market that will likely include Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Elvis Andrus, and Didi Gregorius, as well as Carlos Correa should he (as expected) opt out of the final two years of his deal with the Twins. He’d nonetheless be a near-certainty to top his remaining guarantee so long as he remains healthy and maintains his recent production.

APRIL 6: Red Sox star third baseman Rafael Devers recently rejected an extension offer from the team, reports Héctor Gómez of Z101 (Twitter link). Gómez adds that Boston’s offer to Devers topped the $124MM deal José Ramírez signed with the Guardians. Further specifics of the offer aren’t known, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive characterizes the sides as being “very far” apart.

Both Gómez and Cotillo suggest it’s unlikely there’ll be any more discussions before the Red Sox open the season on Friday against the Yankees. Devers has previously suggested he won’t entertain an extension in-season. That seemingly sets him up to play out this season on an $11.2MM salary, to which he and the Sox agreed last month to avoid an arbitration hearing.

It stands to reason the Boston front office will take a crack at extending Devers next winter, at the very least. He’s controllable via arbitration for another season beyond this one. By next offseason, the reigning AL Silver Slugger at third base will have banked over $16MM in career earnings. Barring a significant injury, he’ll be in line for a rather notable raise on this season’s salary during his final arbitration year before hitting free agency in advance of his age-27 campaign.

That’s all to say Devers has little pressure to accept a significant discount. The Red Sox certainly won’t put forth a market-value offer two years in advance of free agency, but keeping him in the fold long-term would require one of the biggest investments in the history of that service bucket. The Braves signed first baseman Matt Olson — who also has four-plus service years — to an eight-year, $168MM extension last month. Only Joey Votto (ten years, $225MM) and Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM) have topped Olson’s deal among players with between four and five years of service.

Olson was projected for a $12MM arbitration salary before signing his extension, not too dissimilar from Devers’ current mark. He and Devers have family similar numbers going back three seasons. Olson owns a .257/.354/.522 line since the start of 2019; Devers is a .290/.350/.537 hitter in that time. The latter hits for a better average, while Olson draws significantly more walks. Olson has been 34 percentage points above average by measure of wRC+, while Devers checks in 29 points above par.

Obviously, Olson and Devers don’t make for an apples-to-apples comparison. Devers plays a more demanding position, but he rates as one of the league’s worst defensive third basemen. Olson plays at the position furthest down the defensive spectrum, but he’s perhaps the game’s best gloveman at first base. One could argue that Olson’s the more valuable all-around player, but Devers is two and a half years younger. Devers’ camp at Rep 1 Baseball may argue for a deal that exceeds Olson’s in length and overall guarantee, making it unsurprising that “merely” topping the $124MM guaranteed to Ramírez wouldn’t be sufficient. (To be clear, it’s unknown how close the Red Sox’s offer to Devers was to Ramírez’s number).

Regardless of whether Boston and Devers eventually work something out long-term, he’ll be around for the next two seasons. That’s not necessarily the case for shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his deal after this season. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe spoke with Boagerts on Monday. The star shortstop told Speier he and the club have had talks this spring but said he didn’t anticipate an extension being hammered out in the coming days. Like Devers, Bogaerts suggested he was uninterested in continuing negotiations once the season was underway.

Bogaerts would hit the open market in advance of his age-30 season and seems likely to handily top $60MM barring an unexpected downturn in performance or injury. The Sox added an All-Star potential alternative last month when they signed Trevor Story to a six-year, $140MM deal. The longtime Rockie agreed to play second base this season in deference to Boagerts. Boston could keep him at the keystone if they get a long-term deal with Bogaerts done, but Story could also kick back to his old position in 2023 if the Sox’s incumbent shortstop heads elsewhere.

Padres Select C.J. Abrams, Jose Azocar; Kyle Tyler Designated For Assignment

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | April 7, 2022 at 11:17am CDT

The Padres set their Opening Day roster Thursday, announcing that top prospect C.J. Abrams and outfielder Jose Azocar have been selected to the Major League roster. The Padres placed Fernando Tatis Jr. on the 60-day injured list and designated right-hander Kyle Tyler for assignment in a pair of corresponding 40-man moves.

Abrams is a consensus top prospect, ranked among the sport’s 15 most talented minor leaguers by each of Baseball America, The Athletic, FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Kiley McDaniel at ESPN is the most bullish of the group, slotting Abrams fourth among the sport’s prospects. Reports praise his top-of-the-scale speed and athleticism and excellent hit tool, although evaluators also suggest Abrams has a chance to hit for average or better power at peak.

San Diego originally selected Abrams with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft out of a Georgia high school. He hasn’t had much professional game experience. Abrams spent the second half of his first pro season in rookie ball, with a late cameo at Low-A. The pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor league season, and the Friars pushed him to Double-A Amarillo to start the 2021 season.

Abrams handled the aggressive assignment well, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases over 183 plate appearances. He showcased his advanced bat-to-ball skills with a 19.7% strikeout rate that was a few points below the league average, in spite of the fact that he was younger than virtually every arm he faced. Unfortunately, Abrams was deprived of a second half of reps after he fractured his left tibia and sprained his MCL in an on-field collision in early July.

There’s no doubt some risk for the Pads in pushing Abrams straight to the big leagues. He’s played all of 44 games above Rookie ball because of the pandemic and last season’s injury, none of that time at Triple-A. Yet there’s little question he has electric physical abilities, and the San Diego front office evidently feels he’s at least capable of keeping his head above water in the early going while continuing to develop into a core long-term piece.

Abrams has played the middle infield exclusively during his minor league tenure. Evaluators have been divided on his ability to stick at shortstop long-term, but the general consensus is that he’d be a solid defender at second base. Given his elite speed, Abrams could probably be a plus defender in the outfield as well, and he’s gotten some work on the grass this spring. He’ll presumably need more than a few weeks to become completely comfortable reading fly balls off the bat, but there’s little doubt he’s athletic enough to develop into a long-term outfield option.

It remains to be seen how first-year skipper Bob Melvin will deploy the 21-year-old in the early going. He figures to see some action at each of shortstop, second base and in the outfield. Jake Cronenworth has second base accounted for, but Tatis’ injury had thrust Ha-Seong Kim into the primary shortstop job. A well-regarded signee out of South Korea, Kim struggled during his rookie season in MLB. Melvin can give regular shortstop run to either of Abrams or Kim, and the Pads are set to rely on some combination of Jurickson Profar, Brent Rooker and Matt Beaty in left field.

The Padres aren’t wedded to keeping Abrams on the big league roster from here on out, as he’ll have all three minor league option years remaining. Yet San Diego wouldn’t have carried him out of camp if they didn’t feel he was ready for the challenge, and they’d certainly love if Abrams is in the big leagues to stay. If that’s the case, he’d be controllable through 2027 and wouldn’t reach arbitration eligibility until after the 2024 campaign. Future optional assignments, if needed, might push those trajectories back.

As a consensus top prospect, Abrams qualifies for the so-called Prospect Promotion Incentive in the new collective bargaining agreement. Based on his finishes in Rookie of the Year and MVP voting over his first three MLB seasons, the Padres could stand to collect some extra draft choices if he excels.

Azocar isn’t anywhere near the caliber of prospect Abrams is, but he’ll likewise be making his big league debut whenever he gets into a game. Signed by the Tigers as an amateur free agent from Venezuela in 2012, he spent eight seasons in the Detroit farm system and played his way to Double-A. After reaching minor league free agency, he landed with the Padres on a minors deal last winter.

The 25-year-old split last season between Amarillo and Triple-A El Paso. Over 544 plate appearances, he hit .281/.341/.438 with nine homers and 32 steals. Azocar has never hit more than 10 homers in a minor league season and has well below-average power, but evaluators have long credited him as a plus runner and solid defensive outfielder. He can play all three outfield spots and gives the team a true fourth outfield type behind Trent Grisham in center field.

Tyler just landed with San Diego on waivers a couple weeks ago. The righty has bounced from the Angels to the Red Sox to the Padres on the wire over the past month, and he figures to land back on waivers in the next few days. He made his big league debut last season, tossing 12 1/3 relief innings over five appearances with six strikeouts and walks apiece. Tyler still has all three options remaining.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Select Bobby Witt Jr., Designate Daniel Tillo For Assignment

By Steve Adams | April 7, 2022 at 10:54am CDT

The Royals have made it official. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. has been selected to the 40-man roster, while lefty Daniel Tillo has been designated for assignment in a corresponding roster move. Kansas City also placed righty Joel Payamps on the family medical emergency list.

Witt, the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft, is regarded as one of the top three overall prospects in the Majors, even topping the lists at MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. He forced his way onto the big league roster not only with last year’s combined .290/.361/.576 batting line between Double-A and Triple-A, but also with a massive spring showing. In a dozen Cactus League games and 34 plate appearances, Witt batted .406/.441/.781 with three home runs, three doubles and a pair of steals (in two attempts).

Even before the new collective bargaining agreement’s “prospect promotion incentives” went into place, the Royals have been unafraid to call up their best prospects as soon as they’re deemed ready. The Royals organization hasn’t made a habit of gaming service time in the past, evidenced both by president of baseball operations Dayton Moore’s public stance on the matter and the Opening Day appointments of several prospects (most recently, right-hander Brady Singer in 2020).

Witt, 21, has been primarily a shortstop in his brief minor league tenure but is expected to shift to the hot corner in the big leagues. The Royals are deep in infield talent, and Nicky Lopez in particular played shortstop at a Gold Glove-caliber level this past season. Witt could still see his share of reps at shortstop, but Adalberto Mondesi is also in the picture there.

Tillo, 25, split the 2021 season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he pitched to a combined 4.03 ERA with a 27-to-20 K/BB ratio in 29 innings of work. A third-round pick by the Royals back in 2017, Tillo has a career 4.25 ERA in 330 2/3 innings at the minor league level, most of which have come as a starter. The Royals will have a week to trade Tillo, place him on outright waivers or release him.

Guardians Extend Jose Ramirez

By Steve Adams | April 6, 2022 at 11:15pm CDT

Jose Ramirez won’t be going anywhere. The star infielder has agreed to a new five-year extension with the Guardians that will see his 2023 club option picked up and another five seasons and $124MM tacked onto his contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Ramirez’s contract now runs through 2028 and contains a full no-trade clause as well, all but ensuring that he’ll remain in Cleveland for the long haul. The Guardians did explore trade scenarios while simultaneously discussing an extension, Passan adds, noting that the Padres in particular believed they had a chance to pry him away. Ramirez is represented by Repulik Sports.

The new contract is the largest in franchise history but will still be regarded as a club-friendly deal. Ramirez has emerged as one of the game’s elite players at a time when annual salaries well north of $30MM have become commonplace, but the switch-hitting 29-year-old has been “adamant” about his desire to remain in Cleveland during negotiations, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Ramirez was already set to earn $12MM this year, and next year’s now-exercised option came with a $14MM value, so he’ll now be guaranteed a total of $150MM over the next seven seasons.

Prior to this new deal with Ramirez and this week’s extension of closer Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians didn’t have a single dollar committed to the payroll beyond the 2022 season. Locking up Ramirez now puts any near-term trade chatter to bed and sets him up to serve as a focal point in the lineup through what will be his age-35 season. Ramirez’s contract clocks in south of the $151MM extension signed by Altuve at a similar juncture of his career and well shy of Nolan Arenado’s $234MM extension with the Rockies (although Arenado was just months from free agency, whereas both Altuve and Ramirez were controlled through the upcoming season and one more via an affordable club option). Maxing out his annual salary doesn’t appear to have been as large a priority as staying with the team that originally signed and developed him, however, and Ramirez’s new deal obviously offers more than a lifetime’s worth of financial comfort.

It’s a major win for the Guardians and their fans to keep Ramirez locked in as the face of the franchise as the team kicks off a new era in its franchise history. Trading Ramirez just one year after trading away Francisco Lindor and just months after a name change/rebranding that was far from universally praised by the fan base would’ve been a tough pill for many longtime Cleveland fans to swallow.

Instead, Ramirez will continue to show off his electric brand of across-the-board excellence at Progressive Field for more than a half decade. While he first broke out as an above-average player back in 2016, it was the 2017 season that saw Ramirez jump into the ranks of MVP-caliber talents — and he hasn’t looked back since. Dating back to 2017, Ramirez boasts a .280/.365/.547 batting line (39 percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+) with 144 home runs, 112 stolen bases (in 134 attempts) and strong defense at both third base and second base. There’s virtually no flaw in Ramirez’s game — evidenced by the fact that he trails only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts in total Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs, since 2017.

The extensions for Ramirez and Clase come at a time when the Guardians are set to welcome a wave of high-end young talent to a roster that is, once again, deep in talented young pitchers. Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac and Cal Quantrill give Cleveland a strong collection of big league rotation pieces, and touted righty Daniel Espino isn’t far behind that quintet. On the position-player side of things, outfielder George Valera and infielders Brayan Rocchio, Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Nolan Jones (who’s also seen time in the outfield) could all be up in the big leagues by 2023 — some of them as soon as during the 2022 season.

That collection of young talent simultaneously gives Cleveland good cause to lock Ramirez into place and also provides the typically low-payroll club the ability to dedicate a significant portion of its annual budget to one player in just this manner. The Guardians will need to make a similar decision on their ace, Bieber, before too long, as he’s controlled another three seasons and will see his price tag continue to mount through the arbitration process.

With Ramirez putting pen to paper on a second club-friendly extension, however, it stands to reason that the team has a bit of extra leeway in trying to piece together an extension for the 26-year-old right-hander. The Marlins’ five-year, $56MM for Sandy Alcantara is the largest ever extension for a pitcher in Bieber’s service bracket. If the team waits until next year, the extension record for that four-plus service bracket jumps considerably; Jacob deGrom signed a five-year, $137.5MM deal in that same bracket. Bieber won’t have quite that same earning capacity, as deGrom was a Super Two player whose second-year arb price had already soared to $17MM — Bieber is not Super Two-eligible and is earning $6MM in his first year of arb in 2022 — but the gap in those two records still serves to illustrate the likely hike in Bieber’s eventual price tag.

Regardless of whether Cleveland keeps Bieber, goes year-to-year or even eventually considers trading him, the Guardians’ future looks quite a bit brighter with Ramirez now etched firmly into cornerstone status. And if the team prefers not to spend big money to keep Bieber in place alongside him, that’ll only further allow the front office to make some free-agent investments to supplement the burgeoning young core. It’s not likely that we’ll ever see Cleveland dive headlong into the deep end of the free-agent pool, of course, but some second-tier spending to surround Ramirez and whichever of the team’s prospects emerge as regulars will eventually be required if the Guardians hope to keep pace in an increasingly competitive AL Central.

The White Sox are currently the AL Central favorites, due in no small part to their own exciting young core and some key investments in veterans on the free-agent and trade markets. The Twins, meanwhile, have a series of young pitchers on the cusp of the big leagues and shocked the baseball world with their offseason signing of Carlos Correa, which firmly signaled there’s no intent to rebuild after a lost year in 2021. Detroit and Kansas City are both emerging from longstanding rebuilding efforts themselves and are set to welcome some of the sport’s premier prospects to the Majors when the season opens (Spencer Torkelson in Detroit, Bobby Witt Jr. in Kansas City).

The shifting landscape in the Central makes it all the more pivotal for the Guardians to not only retain Ramirez but to succeed with their own player-development efforts and to spend at least some money to supplement that group. Cleveland will probably always have the division’s lowest payroll, at least when all five Central clubs are aiming to contend, but successfully bartering a team-friendly extension with a superstar talent of Ramirez’s caliber helps to narrow the the edge that other division rivals may have in terms of their overall financial resources. Beyond that, a long-term deal for a face-of-the-franchise player of this nature is cause for any team’s fan base to celebrate. Ramirez jerseys ought to be flying off the shelves now in Cleveland, as Ramirez could spend the next seven seasons looking to add to his already-impressive collection of three Silver Sluggers, three All-Star nods and four top-six MVP finishes.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins, Padres Discussing Chris Paddack, Taylor Rogers

By Anthony Franco | April 6, 2022 at 7:25pm CDT

7:25pm: Talks between the two sides have also involved Minnesota closer Taylor Rogers, report Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). There are certainly more players than just Paddack and Rogers in discussions, but the clubs are evidently contemplating scenarios that could see either team land immediate big league help.

6:36pm: The Twins and Padres are working on a trade that would send right-hander Chris Paddack to Minnesota, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). San Diego has been kicking the tires on possible Paddack deals in recent days.

Paddack, 26, has spent the past three years in the San Diego rotation. The Padres acquired the Texas native from the Marlins in a 2016 trade that sent closer Fernando Rodney to South Florida. It quickly became apparent that was a heist for San Diego, as Paddack developed into one of the sport’s better pitching prospects not long after.

The Friars carried Paddack on their Opening Day roster in 2019. He looked like a mid-rotation arm in the making as a rookie, working 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball. Paddack punched out a strong 26.9% of batters faced that year while only walking 5.5% of opponents. The 21.5 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages checked in 17th among 130 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched.

Unfortunately, Paddack hasn’t built upon that success in the past two seasons. He pitched to a 4.73 ERA over 12 starts during the truncated 2020 schedule. That looked to be a possible small-sample blip, inflated by the fact that one in every four fly balls he allowed cleared the fences. Yet his ERA jumped again last year, checking in at 5.07 in 108 1/3 frames.

Paddack’s home run rate came back to earth, but he allowed nearly 40% of baserunners to score. That’s more a product of poor sequencing than anything else, and the Twins presumably believe he’ll more closely approximate his 76.4% strand rate of 2019-20 than last season’s mark moving forward. That said, one can’t approximate Paddack’s recent struggles entirely to home run and baserunner luck.

In each of the past two seasons, Paddack’s strikeout rate has dipped relative to the year prior. Last year’s 21.6% mark was a couple points below the league average, although his swinging strike rate has held steady in the 11% range. Perhaps even more concerning, he has allowed hard contact well above the league mark in each of the past two years. Paddack particularly struggled with right-handed batters last season, allowing same-handed opponents to put up a .325/.354/.547 line.

Those factors make him a difficult pitcher to value. He still sports excellent control, throws in the mid-90s, and owns an excellent changeup. Yet he’s also prone to a lot of hard contact and has seen his results go downhill over the past couple years. Moreover, he ended last season on the injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. That hasn’t impacted him this spring, but it’s at least of moderate concern to any team considering acquiring him.

Paddack and the Padres agreed to a $2.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll be controllable via that process through 2024. There’s a case for the Padres to hold onto him in hopes of a bounceback, but it’s not clear there’s room for him in the rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, the recently-acquired Sean Manaea and Nick Martínez (whom they signed to a four-year deal this offseason) look like the season-opening starting five. Mike Clevinger will begin the year on the IL but will have a rotation spot whenever he returns. The Friars also have Ryan Weathers, one-time top prospect MacKenzie Gore and Reiss Knehr as depth options for any inevitable injury concerns.

Given that plethora of arms, the Friars have contemplated dealing from both their rotation depth. San Diego has reportedly been looking to upgrade in the corner outfield, but Rogers’ inclusion in talks with the Twins demonstrates the possibility for upgrades on other areas of the roster.

Rogers, 31, has emerged as one of the sport’s better late-inning arms. He posted an ERA between 2.61 and 3.07 in each season between 2017-19, tossing 55+ innings in all three years. The southpaw allowed a bit more than four runs per nine in the shortened 2020 season, but his underlying numbers remained excellent and he returned to form last year.

In 2021, the University of Kentucky product worked to a 3.35 mark over 40 1/3 innings. He punched out a career-high 35.5% of batters faced while walking only 4.8% of opponents, averaging a personal-best 95.5 MPH on his heater. Among relievers with 40+ frames, only Liam Hendriks, Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Craig Kimbrel had a bigger strikeout/walk rate differential than Rogers’ 30.7 point gap.

With the Twins reeling towards a last-place finish, Rogers was a frequently-mentioned trade target leading up to the summer trade deadline. He sprained the middle finger on his pitching hand in late July, though, essentially killing any chance of a midseason deal. That proved a season-ending malady.

The Twins have been aggressive this offseason in an attempt to immediately bounce back. There’s not been much indication Rogers was available in trade this winter, yet he’s entering his final year of club control. He’ll play the 2022 campaign on a $7.3MM salary before hitting the open market, where he’s on track to be one of the top relievers available.

That dwindling window of control could increase Minnesota’ comfort parting with Rogers, particularly if the deal allows them to address a rotation that looks like the club’s weak point. The Twins have added Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to join Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the starting five.

Both Bundy and Archer are coming off miserable 2021 seasons tarnished by injury. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has expressed confidence in the internal options, particularly with highly-regarded prospect Josh Winder on hand as the likely first call in the event of injury. Still, there’s enough uncertainty that adding to that group if the opportunity presented itself always seemed likely. There’s no guarantee a deal will get across the finish line, but the Twins pursuit of Paddack reflects they’re not averse to picking up another arm.

Astros, Ryan Pressly Agree To Extension

By Darragh McDonald | April 5, 2022 at 10:45pm CDT

The Astros and reliever Ryan Pressly are in agreement on a two-year, $30MM extension, per Robert Murray of FanSided. There is also a vesting option for 2025 that could take the deal up to $42MM. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Pressly will make $14MM in 2023 and 2024, along with a $2MM buyout on the 2025 option. (Twitter links) Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays that the $14MM option for 2025 will vest with 50 appearances in both 2023 and 2024. Pressly is represented by Scott Lonergan of the Ballengee Group.

This is the second time in Pressly’s career where he has signed an extension with the Astros while one year away from free agency. In March of 2019, the two sides agreed to a two-year extension that came with a $17.5MM guarantee, covering the 2020 and 2021 campaigns, along with a $10MM vesting option for 2022. Pressly needed to make 60 appearances in each of the 2020 and 2021 campaigns in order to vest the option, which he did. (In the shortened 2020 campaigns, all thresholds of this kind were prorated by 2.7, meaning Pressly’s 23 games were counted as just over 62 appearances.) Once again, Pressly has been locked up to keep him from hitting the open market.

As noted by Murray, this deal makes Pressly one of the highest-paid relievers in baseball and is the largest contract ever given to an Astros reliever. The fact that the Astros are willing to commit to Pressly in this way is hardly surprising based on his performance. Just months prior to the first extension, Pressly was acquired by Houston from Minnesota in a 2018 deadline deal. After the trade, Pressly took his game to new heights, something he later credited to Houston’s analytics department. As a Twin in 2018, he pitched 47 2/3 innings with a 3.40 ERA, 33.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Although those were already quality numbers, his post-trade work resulted in an ERA of 0.77 over 23 1/3 innings with a 38.1% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate.

Although Pressly couldn’t quite maintain the gaudy level of that small sample, he has still been one of the better relievers in the league since the signing of his previous deal. In the past three seasons, he’s logged 139 1/3 innings with a 2.45 ERA, 33% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Among relievers with at least 130 innings in that time, his ERA trails only Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader, with that strikeout rate coming in seventh and walk rate coming in sixth.

Now 33, this deal will keep Pressly in Houston through his age-35 season, and possibly for another year after that with the vesting option. For the Astros, they set a franchise record last year with a payroll of $187MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. For this season, they’ve dropped down to around $174MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s largely due to letting certain players walk, such as Carlos Correa and Zack Greinke. When this extension kicks in next year, there could be even more payroll flexibility, as Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Jason Castro, Aledmys Diaz and Rafael Montero are all set to hit free agency. There are also various players who have options for next year, such as Justin Verlander, Jake Odorizzi, Pedro Baez and Martin Maldonado. That means that, prior to this extension, there were just four players with guaranteed contracts for the 2023 campaign: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers Jr. and Hector Neris.

In the end, the Astros get one of the best relievers in the game for a few more years, while Pressley gets the biggest payday of his career, one that pays him like the elite pitcher he is.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays, Manuel Margot Agree To Two-Year Extension

By Anthony Franco | April 5, 2022 at 10:34pm CDT

10:36pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides the breakdown, with Margot making $7MM in 2023, $10MM in 2024, followed by a $12MM mutual option for 2025 that comes with a $2MM buyout.

2:21pm: The Rays are reportedly in agreement with outfielder Manuel Margot on a two-year, $19MM extension, pending a physical. The terms will begin in 2023 and buy out Margot’s first two seasons of free agent eligibility. The 27-year-old had been on track to hit the open market for the first time after this season. He and the club have already agreed upon a $5.6MM salary for his final arbitration-eligible year, and that reportedly won’t be affected by this extension. Margot is represented by Wasserman.

Margot has spent the past two seasons in Tampa after coming over from the Padres in a 2019-20 offseason trade. In both years, he’s posted slightly below-average numbers at the plate. Margot has tallied 623 plate appearances over 166 games as a Ray, posting a cumulative .258/.317/.375 line with 11 home runs. He’s done well to put the ball in play, only striking out in 15.2% of his plate appearances, but Margot has neither hit for much power nor drawn many walks.

While Margot has been an ordinary hitter for the bulk of his career, he’s an excellent defensive outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have pegged him as a plus gloveman in all five of his full big league seasons. That’s been true regardless of where he’s suited up. Margot is more than capable of handling center field, and he was downright excellent when moving to right field in deference to Kevin Kiermaier last season. No outfielder fared better than Margot in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, which pegged him at 16 plays above par.

Tampa Bay has run out strong outfield defenses for years. That’s in large part due to the presence of an otherworldly center fielder in Kiermaier, but players like Margot, Brett Phillips and Randy Arozarena have done well in their own right. The Rays front office seemingly places strong emphasis on outfield defense, so it’s not too surprising they’d like to keep Margot in the fold.

The Rays are set to open the 2022 campaign with a franchise-record player payroll in the $83MM range, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. There are only around $15MM in guarantees for next season, however. The Rays will have another hefty arbitration class, but Tampa Bay is never afraid to move arb-eligible players for younger, more affordable options. Last night’s trade of Austin Meadows to the Tigers fit that bill, and it afforded an opportunity for top prospect Josh Lowe to get an extended major league look.

Lowe, Margot and Arozarena now look to be in place as Tampa Bay’s primary 2023 outfield. Kiermaier is headed into the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s controllable next year via $13MM club option, but the Rays could look to trade him or simply buy the option out if they’re content with Margot as the everyday center fielder. Tampa Bay has reportedly explored potential Kiermaier deals for a few seasons, but they’ve yet to pull the trigger on such a move.

Margot’s extension removes one of the better center fielders from the upcoming free agent market. Brandon Nimmo is set to headline that fairly thin class, with Kiermaier the second-best option if his option is declined. Beyond that duo, utilityman Enrique Hernández, Tyler Naquin (who’s a better fit in a corner) and veterans Lorenzo Cain and Jackie Bradley Jr. seem to be the top players available.

Tenchy Rodriguez first reported the Rays and Margot were in agreement on a two-year, $19MM extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times specified the deal would buy out his first two free agent seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Bryson Stott To Make Phillies Opening Day Roster

By Anthony Franco | April 5, 2022 at 11:15am CDT

The Phillies will carry top shortstop prospect Bryson Stott on the Opening Day roster, the team informed reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). They’ll need to clear a spot for him on the 40-man roster before Thursday’s game. The team will also carry third baseman Alec Bohm on the big league club. Matt Gelb of the Athletic wrote yesterday that keeping both players on the roster was under consideration.

The pair of young infielders figure to see a good bit time together on the left side of the infield. Stott, presumably, will play regularly at shortstop. Bohm figures to handle the hot corner on most days, getting another crack to take hold of the position after a sophomore slump saw him optioned to Triple-A late last season.

It’ll be the first MLB look for Stott, whom the Phils selected 14th overall out of UNLV in the 2019 draft. The left-handed hitting infielder was regarded as a well-rounded shortstop prospect coming out of college, and he moved fairly quickly up the minor league ladder. Stott mashed in the low minors late in 2019, and he picked up where he left off last year after the canceled minors season.

The 24-year-old tallied 351 plate appearances with Double-A Reading, hitting .301/.368/.481 with ten homers. Stott posted solid walk and strikeout numbers and earned a late-season bump to Triple-A. Despite playing in only ten games with Lehigh Valley, he’ll step up to the major league level.

Each of Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs placed Stott among the game’s top 100 prospects this offseason. FanGraphs was the most bullish of the group, ranking him the #34 prospect in the sport. General consensus among evaluators is that he’ll be a productive everyday player in the near future. Stott doesn’t get overwhelming grades for any of his physical tools, but he’s seen as a polished defensive shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills and average or better raw power.

Stott’s promotion figures to result in less playing time for incumbent shortstop Didi Gregorius. The Phils brought back the veteran on a two-year deal last offseason, but his 2021 production was disappointing. Gregorius hit just .209/.270/.370 in 103 games. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski acknowledged at the start of the offseason the 32-year-old wouldn’t be guaranteed the primary shortstop job, pointing to Stott as a possible internal alternative.

Jean Segura is lined up as the everyday second baseman, and carrying Stott and Bohm could push Gregorius into a utility role. The Phils also signed Johan Camargo to a one-year deal this winter, giving manager Joe Girardi a few options for juggling playing time. Much figures to depend on how well Stott and Bohm start the season. Bohm, a former #3 overall pick and top prospect, had an excellent rookie showing in 2020 but is coming off a season (.247/.305/.342) not too much stronger than Gregorius’. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, increasing the pressure to stake a claim to the everyday third base job early in the season.

As a consensus Top 100 prospect, Stott’s immediate big league promotion could result in the Phils accruing some extra draft capital down the line. The new collective bargaining agreement includes the so-called Prospect Promotion Incentive, a feature that could entitle the Phils to a bonus selection in the amateur or international drafts (if the international draft is ultimately instituted) depending upon his finishes in Rookie of the Year or MVP voting before he reaches arbitration eligibility.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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