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Newsstand

Craig Kimbrel Rumors: Deadline Day

By Anthony Franco | July 30, 2021 at 12:54pm CDT

The market is heating up for star reliever Craig Kimbrel, who looks likely to wind up traded before this afternoon’s deadline. With the Cubs moving players off the big league roster, there’s little reason to hold onto Kimbrel at a time when his value is almost certainly at its apex.

The eight-time All-Star is having as good a season as he’s ever had, pitching to an incredible 0.49 ERA/1.83 SIERA over 36 2/3 innings. He’s playing out the year on a $16MM salary (around $5.6MM of which is still owed) and is under team control next season via a club option at a matching price. Unsurprisingly, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that multiple teams are in conversations with the Cubs regarding the 32-year-old.

Here’s the latest chatter on Kimbrel:

Latest Updates

  • While the Dodgers are “kicking around” the idea of adding Kimbrel, his landing in L.A. seems unlikely, reports Rosenthal. The Rays, whom Rosenthal reported this morning have been in talks with the Cubs about both Kimbrel and Kris Bryant, remain involved.

Earlier Reports

  • Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the Dodgers were exploring the market earlier this week, and they have continued interest, he reiterates today. It has been a whirlwind deadline season for Los Angeles, who has already added Danny Duffy and is apparently soon to acquire Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.
  • The White Sox already picked up one quality reliever from the Cubs — Ryan Tepera — yesterday. They’re apparently at least kicking around the idea of making another move with their crosstown rivals. The two Chicago clubs are having discussions about a potential Kimbrel deal, reports David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago (on Twitter).
  • Kimbrel’s first club, the Braves, checked in on a reunion, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). However, Atlanta does not “see itself as a factor” in the market at the moment.
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Brewers Acquire Daniel Norris From Tigers

By Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2021 at 12:42pm CDT

The Brewers are finalizing a deal to acquire lefty reliever Daniel Norris from the Tigers, tweet Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.  MLB.com’s Jason Beck first broke news of the trade discussions, and he hears that minor league starter Reese Olson is heading back to the Tigers.  The deal is done, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.

Norris, 28, has struggled to the tune of a 5.89 ERA, 25.5 K%, and 9.6 BB% in 36 2/3 innings this year for Detroit.  The southpaw has been done in by a .354 batting average on balls in play, so better things may be on the horizon.  Plus, Norris has stifled lefties, whiffing more than 30% of them against a 7% walk rate.  He’s due for free agency after the season, so he’s a clear trade candidate for the Tigers.  Norris is earning $3.475MM on the season.

Norris was drafted in the second round by the Blue Jays back in 2011.  He was the key piece in the Jays’ acquisition of David Price in a deadline deal of six years ago, along with Matthew Boyd.  Back then, Norris was a 60-grade prospect with the potential of a frontline starter.  However, Norris battled numerous injuries in his Tigers career.  He made a career-high 29 starts in 2019, but switched to the bullpen permanently last August when Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize hit the scene.  Though Norris has mostly pitched in low-leverage situations for the Tigers this year, he did work his way up in the bullpen pecking order in July.

This month the Brewers have been relying on Josh Hader and Devin Williams in high leverage situations, with Williams activated from the IL for elbow discomfort on Tuesday.  In addition to Hader, the Brewers’ pen includes lefty Brent Suter.

Olson, 21, was a 13th round pick out of high school by the Brewers back in 2018.  He’s got a 4.30 ERA, 26.9 K%, and 11.9 BB% in 14 High-A starts this year.

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Braves Acquire Adam Duvall

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2021 at 12:14pm CDT

The Braves have picked up slugger Adam Duvall in a trade with the Marlins, as originally reported by Craig Mish of The Miami Herald (Twitter links).  Catcher Alex Jackson is heading to the Marlins.

It is the second outfield trade in a matter of minutes for the Braves, who also just acquired Eddie Rosario from the Indians.  Since Rosario is still on the injured list recovering from a right abdominal strain, Duvall will now immediately step into an outfield picture that has been entirely remade in the last few weeks, including the Braves’ trade with the Cubs for Joc Pederson.

Duvall is a known quantity in Atlanta, and was initially acquired by the team exactly three years ago to the day as part of another deadline deal with the Reds.  Duvall didn’t perform well down the stretch in 2018, but he then hit .248/.307/.545 with 26 home runs over 339 plate appearances for the team during the 2019-20 seasons.

The Braves non-tendered Duvall last winter rather than pay him a $4MM in projected arbitration salary, opening the door for Duvall to sign a one-year deal with the Marlins worth $5MM in guaranteed money.  Duvall is still owed the remainder of his $2MM salary for this season, and there is a $7MM mutual option on his services for 2022 that can be bought out for $3MM.

The 2021 season has seen Duvall continue his power-centric performance, hitting 22 homers and slugging .478 over 339 PA for Miami, though with only a .229 batting average and .277 OBP.  The right-handed hitting Duvall has actually performed better against righties than lefties this season, but he has pretty even splits over his career, so the Braves will likely look to swing some of platoon system between Duvall and the left-handed hitting Pederson and Rosario.

Once Rosario is healthy, the Braves can juggle between the three veterans in the corner outfield, and Duvall could even be an option in center field, as he has held his own over 53 innings up the middle for the Marlins this year.  That said, Duvall is a much more solid corner outfielder, if the Braves looked to prioritize their overall defense on the grass.  Between the trio of new acquisitions and other in-house options like Guillermo Heredia, Abraham Almonte, or Cristian Pache, Atlanta has managed to fortify an outfield that lost Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna.

Jackson has only a .293 OPS over 50 career Major League plate appearances, but the 25-year-old has been consistently productive at the Triple-A level, with a .236/.320/.544 slash line and 42 home runs over 593 PA at Triple-A Gwinnett.  Selected sixth overall by the Mariners in the 2014 draft, Jackson hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity at the big league level, but might find more chances for a Marlins team that is thin at catcher.  Jorge Alfaro hasn’t hit well over the last two seasons, calling into question his status as the Marlins’ catcher of the future.

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Braves Acquire Eddie Rosario

By Anthony Franco | July 30, 2021 at 12:12pm CDT

The Indians and Braves have announced a deal sending corner outfielder Eddie Rosario and cash considerations to Atlanta in exchange for corner infielder Pablo Sandoval. It’s the first of two outfield pickups on deadline day for the Braves, who reacquired Adam Duvall from Miami as well. Atlanta also picked up Joc Pederson earlier this month as part of an effort to rebuild the outfield in the wake of Ronald Acuña’s ACL tear.

Rosario is currently on the 10-day injured list with an intercostal strain but is expected to return at some point in the coming weeks. Signed to a one-year deal over the offseason, Rosario struggled over his time in Cleveland, hitting .254/.296/.389 with seven home runs in 306 plate appearances. He’d been a slightly to well above-average bat in each of his final four seasons with the Twins, however, and the Braves are clearly betting on a return to that form.

The acquisition cost is minimal. Sandoval has picked up sporadic playing time, serving mostly as a designated pinch-hitter. The 34-year-old is hitting .178/.302/.342 over 86 trips to the plate. He’s almost certainly being included as a salary offset, with about a third of his $1MM figure still to be paid.

For Cleveland, the appeal is in shedding an undisclosed amount of Rosario’s salary. The Indians will cover some of the deal, but Rosario’s $8MM contract still has a little less than $2.8MM to be paid out. The Braves will assume some of that tab to add a lefty bat to their outfield mix while the Indians save some money in a season where they’re no longer competing anyways.

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Blue Jays Acquire Jose Berrios

By Steve Adams | July 30, 2021 at 12:02pm CDT

12:02pm: The Blue Jays have announced the trade.

11:31am: The Blue Jays and Twins have a deal in place sending right-hander Jose Berrios to Toronto, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that top pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson is part of the return. Infielder Austin Martin, the No. 5 overall pick from last summer’s draft, is also going to Minnesota, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Jose Berrios | Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Berrios, 27, gives the Blue  Jays perhaps the second-best pitcher on this summer’s trade market, trailing only Max Scherzer, who is expected to join the Dodgers later today. Unlike Scherzer, he’s controllable beyond the 2021 season, as he’s only in his second arbitration season. Berrios is earning $6.1MM in 2021 and will be due one more arbitration raise this winter before reaching free agency upon conclusion of the 2022 campaign.

Berrios will join Hyun Jin Ryu and the resurgent Robbie Ray atop the Toronto rotation, comprising what now looks to be a formidable trio. He’s in the midst of one of his finest seasons, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a career-best 25.7 percent strikeout rate, an excellent 6.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 43.6 percent ground-ball rate. He’s posted those numbers through 20 starts and a total of 121 1/3 frames, standing out as one of the dwindling number of pitchers in today’s game who averages six-plus frames per outing.

Of course, Berrios isn’t simply durable on a per-game basis. He’s been one of the game’s most durable starting pitchers overall, throughout the entirety of his career. He’s never been on the Major League injured list and is currently on pace for what would be his fourth straight season of a full slate of starts. He made 26 appearances back in 2017 — the final season he was optioned to the minors — and has since made 32 starts, 32 starts, 12 starts (a full workload in last year’s 60-game season) and 20 starts so far in 2020.

During that time, he’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 and has pitched to an overall 3.76 mark with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent walk rate. Berrios may not quite be a Cy Young-caliber, top-of-the-rotation ace, but he’s as consistent and durable as it comes for a second/third starter.

The Blue Jays paid a steep price to acquire a year and a half of that consistency. Martin, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, was viewed by many in the industry as the best all-around player in the draft class. It was a legitimate surprise when he slipped beyond the No. 2 overall pick and fell to the Jays with the fifth selection. He’s currently ranked as the No. 16 prospect in the game at MLB.com, No. 21 at Baseball America and No. 23 at FanGraphs.

Martin starred at Vanderbilt in college, hitting .368/.474/.532 in his college career. The Jays dropped him right into Double-A to begin 2021, his first professional season, and it hasn’t looked like he’s missed a beat. In 250 plate appearances, Martin has posted a .281/.424/.383 with a pair of homers, ten doubles, two triples and nine stolen bases. He’s walked at a hearty 14.8 percent clip against a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. That batting line is 32 percent better than league average in an immensely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment, by measure of wRC+.

The main question on Martin is simply one of where he’ll play. He’s split his time evenly between shortstop and center field in Double-A this season. At the time of the draft, some scouts questioned whether he could stick at shortstop in pro ball, but the Jays have been giving him that chance. Even if shortstop isn’t his ultimate home on the diamond, however, most scouting reports on the 22-year-old Martin agree that his athleticism will translate to third base, center field or second base. The general expectation surrounding Martin is that he’ll be an above-average regular regardless of where he settles in on the diamond.

Woods Richardson has had a rougher season as Martin’s teammate in Double-A, but he’s only 20 years old — nearly five years younger than the average age of his competitors at that level. He entered the season widely regarded as a top 100 prospect, and while he’s since dropped off Baseball America’s list following the draft, he still ranks 49th at FanGraphs and 68th at MLB.com.

The Jays initially acquired Woods Richardson from the Mets in the trade that send Marcus Stroman to Queens. He’s made 11 starts in New Hampshire this season and posted a grisly 5.76 ERA, although that number is inflated by a .359 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 58 percent strand rate. Woods-Richardson has walked too many hitters (12.8 percent) but also fanned a third of his opponents so far on the year. Woods Richardson is away from the club right now, pitching for Team USA in the Olympics (as is fellow newly acquired Twins pitching prospect Joe Ryan).

FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes that Woods Richardson works with both a four-seamer and a two-seamer, also praising the righty’s changeup and the shape of his curveball. MLB.com’s report praised Woods Richardson’s changeup as the best in Toronto’s system, and the general consensus on the right-hander is that if he can add a little velocity as he continues to fill out, he has the makings of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

It’s an impressive haul for the Twins, though the organization has to be disappointed that the season came to this. Minnesota entered the year as defending AL Central champs and hopeful contenders, but their season spiraled out of control early and has yet to recover. That’s prompted the front office to pivot to what certainly looks like it’ll be an accelerated retooling of the roster.

The Twins still have an impressive crop of controllable hitters, and the additions of Martin, Woods Richardson, Ryan and Drew Strotman in their first two trades of deadline season give them four upper-minors talents who could impact the club by 2022 (perhaps 2023, in Woods Richardson’s case). Parting with Berrios means bidding adieu to the best pitcher the organization has developed in more than a decade, but they’ll hope that the recent influx of talent quickly supplements their foundation of young hitters and produces another arm or two of Berrios’ caliber before long.

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Blue Jays Are Leading Suitor For Jose Berrios

By Steve Adams | July 30, 2021 at 11:18am CDT

With Max Scherzer now likely headed to the Dodgers, Twins right-hander Jose Berrios becomes the clear top starter left on the trade market. The 27-year-old righty is earning $6.1MM in 2021, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration, and is in the midst of arguably his best season yet. Through 121 2/3 innings, Berrios has pitched to a 3.48 ERA with a strong 25.7 percent strikeout rate and an excellent 6.5 percent walk rate. Berrios has been as durable as they come, and while he might not be the bona fide, Cy Young-caliber ace that Scherzer is, he’s a clear option to start in a playoff game for most contenders.

It originally looked as though Berrios was a long shot to move, but the interest in him has been intense. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported yesterday that market for Berrios had exceeded the Twins’ expectations, making a deal increasingly likely. Virtually every contender or fringe contender has inquired, as you’d expect. Not all of them will remain in the mix as talks continue into the eleventh hour of deadline season, so with that in mind, we’ll run down today’s latest Berrios rumblings in this post…

  • The Blue Jays “appear” to be the leading suitor for Berrios at the moment, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in the Twin Cities tweets that the Twins have at least four offers in hand, coming from teams on both coasts. The Padres, Wolfson adds, “will be in it until the end.” That meshes with last night’s report from AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, wherein he indicated that Berrios is now the Padres’ “primary target.”
  • The Padres, Rays and Mets are among the teams still talking to Berrios this morning, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter link). The Twins’ asking price has been too steep for the Mets for weeks, and that appeared to still be the case last night as well. The Rays haven’t been extensively tied to Berrios for long, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman listed them as one of the most aggressive clubs on Berrios last night. It’s been a whirlwind deadline for the Rays, who’ve added Nelson Cruz but also subtracted some notable pieces in Diego Castillo and Rich Hill. Berrios would immediately become Tampa Bay’s top starter, at least as long as Tyler Glasnow is out. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that both the Rays and Blue Jays are still very much in the running.
  • The Yankees and Mariners also remain in the mix for Berrios, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who also notes that interest in Berrios has picked up even since last night (Twitter links). It’s been an active deadline in both the Bronx and Seattle, although the Yankees have yet to address their starting pitching. Seattle has added Tyler Anderson, but he’s a rental and more of a back-of-the-rotation arm. Beyond that, with myriad injuries throughout their expected starting staff, the Mariners could certainly use multiple starters.
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Starlin Castro Suspended Thirty Games For Violation Of Domestic Violence Policy, Will Be Released By Nationals

By Anthony Franco | July 30, 2021 at 10:43am CDT

Major League Baseball has suspended Nationals infielder Starlin Castro for thirty games without pay for a violation of the MLB – MLBPA joint domestic violence policy. Under the terms of the policy, he’s officially barred from participating in any postseason games this year. He’ll also pay a fine of an undisclosed amount.

Castro was placed on administrative leave on July 16 after domestic violence allegations were made against him. Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo strongly suggested afterwards that Castro wouldn’t again play for the club. The team announced this morning that he’ll indeed be released upon the conclusion of his suspension.

The 31-year-old signed a two-year, $12MM deal with the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. His suspension will result in the forfeiture of approximately $1MM in salary.

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Rays Acquire Shawn Armstrong From Orioles

By Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2021 at 9:05am CDT

The Rays have acquired reliever Shawn Armstrong from the Orioles, for cash considerations, according to Baltimore.  Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was first with the news.

Armstrong, a 30-year-old righty, was thought to be a saves candidate for the Orioles back in March.  However, he started his season with trips to the paternity and COVID-19 list.  After that Armstrong struggled mightily, with an 8.55 ERA in 20 innings – including five home runs allowed.  By June Armstrong was designated for assignment by Baltimore, clearing waivers and joining Triple-A Norfolk.  Armstrong spoke to Kubatko about his tumultuous start to the season, a good reminder of the human side of the game.  Things went better for Armstrong in his 17 innings there, as he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate.

The Rays would need to add Armstrong to their 40-man roster to deploy him in their big league bullpen, which has endured significant turnover this year.  Pete Fairbanks has seen the highest-leverage work this month, but he just hit the IL yesterday for shoulder inflammation.  Collin McHugh went on the IL recently as well.  Also yesterday, Diego Castillo was sent to the Mariners, with JT Chargois joining the Rays.  Matt Wisler, acquired in June, has played a prominent role this month.  And Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen were acquired from the Brewers back in the May Willy Adames deal.  Nick Anderson, one of the club’s top relievers from last year, is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.

If the Rays do put Armstrong on their 40-man roster, they’ll retain control of him as an arbitration eligible player, since he entered the season with just over three years of MLB service time.

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Rockies Reportedly Have “No Plans” To Trade Jon Gray, Daniel Bard

By Steve Adams | July 30, 2021 at 7:15am CDT

7:15am: The Rockies “have no plans” to trade either Gray or closer Daniel Bard today, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

As a 36-year-old closer on a fourth-place team, Bard looked like nearly as much of a slam-dunk trade candidate as Gray and Story. He’s controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration, but relievers are inherently volatile, and the Rockies can’t be reasonably expected to contend for a division title next year.

Bard has allowed three runs in his past two outings, which has bumped his ERA up a bit, but he’s still sitting at a respectable 4.32 mark with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.9 percent walk rate. Given his 97.8 mph average fastball, his ability to miss bats and his affordable $2.925MM salary, one would imagine there’d be some decent interest in Bard.

6:37am: Despite standing out as one of the most logical trade candidates on the market, Jon Gray remains in Colorado with nine hours until this afternoon’s trade deadline. There are, of course, many likely trade candidates who’ve yet to change hands, but it seems that as is the case with Trevor Story, the Rockies are at least considering hanging onto Gray.

The right-hander himself tells Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette that he and the team have had preliminary talks about an extension, adding that he hopes to stay with the Rockies. Meanwhile, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Rockies have also considered hanging onto Gray and making him a qualifying offer at season’s end.

Gray, 29, was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft and stands out as one of the best homegrown arms the Rockies have developed. He’s in the midst of a the third sub-4.00 ERA of his season, pitching to a 3.67 ERA with a 22 percent strikeout rate, a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and walk rates are a ways off from his career-best marks, and Gray’s 94.8 mph average heater is down a tick from his career-high 96.1 mph in 2017. But Gray is also limiting hard contact at the best rates of his career and has been a generally durable starter for the Rox this season. He’s playing on a $6MM salary in his final season of club control before free agency.

Given all that and the Rockies’ obvious lack of playoff chances, there ought to be many teams trying to acquire Gray — and it sounds as though the interest is there. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the Blue Jays, Padres, Mariners, White Sox and Mets are among the clubs that have scouted and shown varying levels of interest in Gray.

With Max Scherzer likely L.A.-bound and Jose Berrios now looking increasingly likely to be dealt, the floodgates on the remaining available starting pitchers could open in the hours leading up to the deadline. Gray, Michael Pineda, Zach Davies, Kyle Gibson and Merrill Kelly all seem like strong candidates to be dealt, and the removal of the market’s top two names — if Berrios is moved early in the day — should give the teams that miss out ample time to pivot to secondary targets.

Of course, that again assumes that Gray will be moved at all. The Rockies march to the beat of their own drum, to say the least. Perhaps the notion of keeping Gray and/or Story is mere posturing in an effort to extract a larger return, but the Rockies have resisted rebuilding moves for years despite rarely contending. Manager Bud Black said earlier this month they’ve already informed top starter German Marquez that he won’t be traded, which seems to suggest they believe a rapid turnaround is possible within the next couple years. So far, the Rockies’ lone move has been to trade Mychal Givens to the Reds.

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Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects

By Anthony Franco | July 30, 2021 at 2:02am CDT

In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.

It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).

Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.

Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.

Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.

A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.

Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.

Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.

Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.

Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.

In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.

That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.

Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.

To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.

With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.

Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.

Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.

Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.

The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.

Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.

Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.

Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.

The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand San Diego Padres Transactions Washington Nationals Corey Seager Donovan Casey Gerardo Carrillo Josiah Gray Keibert Ruiz Max Scherzer Trea Turner

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