Nippon Professional Baseball

Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman held court with the media at this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, headlined by an overview of the plan for newly posted right-hander Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was on hand as Wolfe discussed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who is now eligible to negotiate with all major league teams.

Because of his age, Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus that fits within his team’s league-allotted, hard-capped bonus pool. Had Sasaki waited two years to come to the majors, he’d have been 25 and thus qualified as an amateur, possibly setting him up for a contract rivaling that of countryman and current Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325MM).

Asked why Sasaki chose to seek a posting now rather than come to the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe indicated he’d been asked that question “by everyone you can imagine” and attempted to answer to the best of his ability.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Some of it is Japanese culture. Some of it is just Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball and, through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. … He does not take anything for granted. It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract. Sometimes, baseball just doesn’t work out. You know, you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers suffer. You could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had an oblique injury. Things may not go the way you want.

“The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues, since he was in school. He’s grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he’s always wanted to do, and when he went to [the World Baseball Classic] and was around some of these major league players, it really rubbed off on him. He became sure that ’this is what I want to do as soon as possible.'”

With regard to what sort of factors Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was more vague. He indicated that he and his client have yet to even discuss such factors at length, as Sasaki’s primary focus for so long has been on whether he’ll be posted at all. Wolfe noted that some teams have already submitted presentations for Sasaki but that in-person meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he’s seen “three or four” of the presentations that have been submitted but added that he expects more to file in. Asked how many teams scouted Sasaki this past season in Japan, Wolfe replied that at least half the league had done so.

Wolfe naturally declined to specify which teams had submitted initial presentations or scouted his client in person. The immediate focus for Sasaki will simply be learning about the teams, organizations and cities among which he’ll choose. He’s slated to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing the introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will host teams for a first-round of in-person visits at a central location, beginning next week. Additional waves of team visits — perhaps some in the cities of the finalists — will take place down the road, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.

Asked specifically whether Sasaki might consider a small market, Wolfe said he it could possibly be of interest but emphasized that he had not confirmed as much with his client:

“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him, as a soft landing, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media — it might be. I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to do it. It might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market, but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet because I haven’t had a chance and discuss it with him [at great length].”

Wolfe spoke at multiple points, once doing so unprompted, about the media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, labeling it “in my personal opinion, a bit unfair” and candidly acknowledging that at times it could have a negative impact on the young right-hander:

“There has been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest in going to play for MLB at such a young age. That’s considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and sort of swimming upstream. There’s been a lot of things. A lot of people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and it was detrimental to his mental state.”

Wolfe also emphasized that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a pure short-term financial decision:

“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard. Take all the factors into consideration.”

Sasaki was officially posted for major league teams on Dec. 9, kicking off a 45-day negotiating period for big league clubs. He’ll have to have a contract finalized by Jan. 23. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to occur after Jan. 15, so it can fall under the purview of the 2025 international free agent period, which begins that day. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be a purely financial one, Wolfe specified that MLB wanted to ensure as much of a “level playing field” as possible and ensure that both Sasaki and his former team would get the most beneficial deal possible, which is the posting was formalized on Dec. 9, giving him the chance to extend his free agency into next year’s period — when all 30 MLB teams will have more international resources available.

It’ll be a tough pill for the Marines to swallow, regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB players’ former teams receive a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. In Yamamoto’s case, for instance, his former club received a mammoth $54.375MM release fee from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will be signing for a hard-capped bonus that’ll likely come in south of $10MM, the Marines will probably receive a release fee under $2MM.

Sasaki has pitched in parts of four NPB seasons and tallied 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will have control of him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league deal, pursuant to attachment 46 of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, which indicates that any contracts deemed to be a circumvention of the CBA will not be permitted by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe noted that MLB teams cannot technically even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when signing him, let alone broker an extension ahead of time at a to-be-determined date.

It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — likely more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe pushed back on the notion that they’d even be amenable to that. “If he’s really, really good, the leverage would be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”