Rosenthal’s Latest: Lynn, Cobb, Cashner, Soria, Bour, Swihart
Here are some hot stove-related items from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required and recommended)…
- The Nationals have interest in free agent righty Lance Lynn, though a signing would further put the team over the luxury tax threshold. Washington has been circling the starting pitching market all winter, with Jake Arrieta standing out as the top-tier name most often mentioned as a possibility due to the well-documented relationship between Nats ownership and Scott Boras (Arrieta’s agent). Arrieta, however, would be a considerably pricier signing than Lynn, though Lynn wouldn’t be cheap himself; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projects Lynn for four years and $60MM.
- Alex Cobb isn’t looking for a $20MM average annual value in his next contract, according to “officials on both sides of the Cubs’ negotiations with” the free agent right-hander. Reports that this inflated asking price spurred the Cubs’ interest in Yu Darvish as an alternative to Cobb are also not accurate, as per these same officials.
- The Orioles recently met with Andrew Cashner and his representatives. Baltimore’s interest in Cashner dates back to at least the start of the offseason, and the O’s are still in sore need of arms to bolster their weak rotation. There hasn’t been a ton of buzz about Cashner on the rumor mill, though he is still reportedly looking for a three-year deal and there seems to be at least some interest between Cashner and the Rangers.
- The Athletics also had interest in Joakim Soria before the Royals dealt him to the White Sox earlier this week. Soria would’ve given the A’s extra closing depth behind Blake Treinen, and Oakland could also have potentially looked to move Soria at the trade deadline. The A’s have already made two notable additions (Yusmeiro Petit and Emilio Pagan) to their bullpen mix this winter, and it stands to reason that they could still be looking for more veteran relief help after missing out on Soria.
- Teams continue to ask the Marlins about Justin Bour, though the club wasn’t listening to offers about the first baseman during the Winter Meetings. Bour is one of Miami’s more intriguing long-term assets, just entering his arbitration years and coming off a season that saw him his .289/.366/.536 with 25 homers in 429 plate appearances. Bour’s age (he turns 3o in May) and the amount of depth at the first base position makes Bour a less-valuable trade chip for Miami than Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, though obviously the Fish would still garner a lot of interest in Bour if they made him available.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Sox “are not looking to move” Blake Swihart, despite trade interest from other teams. The last two seasons were essentially a writeoff for Swihart, due to defensive issues behind the plate and ankle injuries that limited him to just 91 minor league games and 25 MLB games in 2016-17. Still, the Sox haven’t given up on the former top prospect, with Dombrowski noting that Swihart’s positional versatility has helped add to his value for the team. While Dombrowski noted that “you could never say you would not move him or anyone else,” Swihart is “still part of our plans….Sometimes you get stuck with players who are out of options. In this case, because of his flexibility, I think we’ve got a little better chance of getting through it.”
AL West Notes: Rangers, A’s Scouting, Pinder, Ohtani
The Rangers and the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of the Japan Pacific League have announced a partnership. Gerry Fraley of SportsDay wrote a full report on the news, noting that the partnership will include exchanging of “ideas and information” about business, ballpark construction, scouting and player development. Notably, the Fighters will also send one of their own instructors both to Rangers spring training camp and to travel with the team during the regular season. The partnership may have evolved from the depth of scouting personnel that Texas deployed to scout players such as Yu Darvish, Yoshinori Tateyama and Shohei Ohtani. “We look forward to helping each other in a variety of ways,” Rangers President Jon Daniels said of the new alliance. It’s fair to wonder whether this partnership will allow Texas to get its foot in the door with future Fighters talent interested in making the transition to MLB.
More items from the American League’s western clubs…
- The Athletics recently hired 24-year-old Haley Alvarez as their scouting coordinator; she’s the first woman to be hired by the club as a talent evaluator. Alyson Footer of MLB.com wrote a piece on the subject detailing the former intern’s rise to her new position. Alvarez’ journey to scouting began with baseball operations experience she gained during her college days at the University of Virginia, followed by internships with the Commissioner’s Office and the Boston Red Sox organization. Following an internship with the A’s, GM David Forst offered to sponsor her for scout school. Though Alvarez didn’t even know such a thing existed, she was excited about the opportunity, and used it to fuel her career path. She’s now using modern analytics and new advanced technology to help the A’s bring in talent. “You don’t have to have played baseball, which is a common misconception,” says Alvarez, who hopes to inspire other women to pursue career paths in baseball operations.
- In other Athletics news, Jane Lee of MLB.com reports that sophomore Chad Pinder is preparing to play first base for the club on occasion. Because Ryon Healy was shipped to Seattle this offseason, the club needs a backup first baseman. “I think the last time I played first base was in eighth grade,” said Pinder, though he did take ground balls during practice there last season. The Oakland utilityman started at six different positions for the club last season while hitting .232/.292/.457 across 309 plate appearances with 15 homers and 42 RBI. The righty-hitter struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances.
- Angels GM Billy Eppler is headed to Japan in order to help with Shohei Ohtani‘s transition process, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. He’ll be bringing three other Angels personnel with him. “We spent so much time saying what we’re about to Ohtani and putting things forward for him,” said Eppler. “The main purpose of this is now to get his input and feedback on things.” Eppler also added that Ohtani is scheduled to get on a mound in two weeks; there don’t seem to be any concerns about his health at this time.
Arbitration Breakdown: Khris Davis
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 projections are available right here. We have already covered Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown and Mookie Betts’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.
Khris Davis is projected for a healthy raise of $6.1 million up to an $11.1 million salary due to his impressive 43 home runs this past year. With 110 RBI, but only a .247 average, the main case for Davis getting a big raise is definitely those home runs.
Home runs are notoriously important for arbitration, and are by far the main driver (along with playing time) of raises according to my model. However, this past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Davis as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.
Deflating Davis’ home run total by 26 percent would put him at 34 home runs, so it would still be a solid season. Chances are that a panel would view Davis as closer to a 40-homer guy (as would Davis’ reps and the A’s during negotiations in the shadow of how a panel would treat him), especially because the Oakland Coliseum deflates home runs, somewhat neutralizing the effect of the higher home run environment.
Only three guys entering their second years of arbitration have hit 40 home runs in the last five years: Two years ago, Josh Donaldson entered arbitration with a .297 average, along with 41 home runs and 123 RBI. His case seems superior to Davis’, mainly because of the fifty point batting average advantage. Thus, Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise seems like a likely ceiling for Khris Davis. Going back four years, we see homonym comparable Chris Davis getting a $7.05 million raise with 53 home runs and a .286 average, along with 138 RBIs; he seems like a ceiling as well. Nolan Arenado hit 41 home runs going into arbitration last year, but he also had a very high average (.294), so his $6.75 million raise seems like a ceiling too. So it is likely that the model is right to place Davis closer to $6 million than $7 million.
It is tough to find floors, but a couple potentials are Lucas Duda and Brandon Moss. Both hit in the .250s but with only 30 home runs, and got raises around $2.5 million. They are clearly well below where Davis should end up.
There is a large range of possibilities there. I think the model is probably as good a guess as any on this case, and I would look for Davis to land around $11 million. But I would probably think $10 million is more likely than $12 million based on the precedent from players like Arenado, Donaldson, and Chris Davis.
AL West Notes: Maxwell, Choo, Rangers, Astros
Here’s the latest from around the AL West…
- Bruce Maxwell‘s trial date (on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, and disorderly conduct) has been scheduled for April 10, NBCSports.com Bay Area’s Joe Stiglich reports. This means that Maxwell would miss part of the Athletics‘ season, though “there remains a strong possibility” that a trial is avoided by a plea deal, according to Stiglich. Discussion of a settlement conference took place today during Maxwell’s first pretrial conference today, as per a court spokesperson.
- Shin-Soo Choo is “not really worried about” being mentioned in trade speculation, the Rangers outfielder tells Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Choo’s name was reportedly included as part of the Rangers’ talks with the Diamondbacks about a possible Zack Greinke swap, as Texas was looking to move Choo’s contract to offset some of the salary the club would be taking on by acquiring Greinke. For Choo, such speculation is “part of baseball. That’s part of the deal. Nobody is happy to hear them in trade rumors….I have a great feeling for the Rangers, but at the same time I understand the team’s situation.” Choo has been hampered by injuries during his four years in Texas and is owed $62MM over the next three seasons, though Wilson feels that the Rangers should keep Choo, arguing that the outfielder has been effective when healthy and provides an OBP boost that the Rangers lineup otherwise lacks.
- The Rangers probably lack the prospect depth to trade for a top-tier starting pitcher, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes in his latest mailbag piece, in part because the club has already dealt so many other top minor leaguers in trades for Cole Hamels, Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, and other established stars in recent years. Moving what few blue chip prospects the team has left for a pitcher like Chris Archer or Michael Fulmer doesn’t seem likely at this point. Texas has beefed up its rotation with the additions of Matt Moore, Doug Fister, and Mike Minor this winter, filling multiple holes in its rotation rather than making a big splash for an ace.
- The signings of Joe Smith and Hector Rondon may end up being the Astros‘ biggest moves of the offseason, though MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart feels the team could still add another starter or a left field candidate. It isn’t out of the question that Houston makes a big play for Archer or the Marlins’ Christian Yelich, especially if the team could do so without moving either of Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley, McTaggart feels.
A’s Sign Cuban Outfielder Dairon Blanco
The A’s announced yesterday that they’ve inked free-agent outfielder Dairon Blanco. The 24-year-old left his native Cuba back in the spring of 2016 and was declared a free agent by MLB last November. Terms of the deal weren’t reported, but the A’s are in the metaphorical “penalty box” after blowing past last year’s international pool, so the deal can’t guarantee Blanco more than $300K.
Blanco is a lifetime .303/.369/.409 hitter in parts of four pro seasons in Cuba (916 plate appearances). At the time of his departure from Cuba and MLB’s declaration of free agency for the right-handed hitter, Blanco was said by Baseball America’s Ben Badler and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen to possess 80-grade speed on the 20-80 scale but a lesser set of other tools. Longenhagen put a 40 on his arm last November, and Badler questioned his natural hitting abilities.
By the time Spring Training gets underway, it will have been more than two years since Blanco has suited up for a pro game. He’ll assuredly require some minor league time in 2018 and possibly beyond the coming season before he emerges as a viable option for the A’s. But, Oakland has no clear option in center field and could very well need a left fielder during or after the 2018 campaign, depending on the status of Matt Joyce, who’s entering the second season of a two-year deal.
Certainly, the team hopes that Dustin Fowler will be able to hold down a regular spot in their outfield (ideally, in center) for years to come, though his ability to contribute is tied directly to his ability to recover from a significant knee injury suffered in his MLB debut with the Yankees last year. Expecting Blanco to emerge as a candidate to log significant big league time this coming season seems optimistic, though his apparently blistering speed and a Gold Glove award in Cuba could make him an intriguing fourth outfield option at the very least, if he can prove competent with the bat.
Oakland’s assistant GM Dan Feinstein spoke highly of Blanco to Melissa Lockard of OaklandClubhouse.com, telling her that the A’s have been scouting Blanco for more than a year during his workouts in the Dominican Republic. “[Blanco] has a track record of success in the Cuba, and possesses tools that are hard to come by,” said Feinstein. “He’s very athletic, and a true 80 runner with the ability to play all three outfield spots. Profiles as leadoff hitter who will occasionally put one in the seats.”
Athletics Acquire Jonah Heim From Rays
The A’s have acquired minor league catcher Jonah Heim from the Rays as the player to be named later in last week’s Joey Wendle trade, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter).
Heim, 22, spent the entire 2016 season in Class-A Advanced but struggled greatly, prompting the Rays to drop him back to Class-A to open the 2017 campaign. Heim spent most of the year in that Class-A Midwest League before moving back up to High-A for the final 16 games, hitting a combined .260/.317/.402 with nine homers across the two levels. He caught 45 percent of would-be base thieves in 2017 and is at an excellent mark of 38 percent throughout his minor league career to date. Heim did not rank among Tampa Bay’s top prospects, but he’ll give the A’s some depth at the position and could seemingly find himself in Double-A at some point in the 2018 campaign.
Athletics Acquire Jake Bray From Orioles
The Athletics have acquired righty Jake Bray from the Orioles, per a club announcement. He represents the player to be named later in the deal that sent outfielder Jaycob Brugman to Baltimore earlier in the offseason.
Bray, 25, has not yet played above the Class A level. In 2017, he pitched to a 3.88 ERA in 51 Sally League frames. That said, he has shown some interesting peripherals at time, never more so than in his just-completed season, when he racked up 82 strikeouts against just 14 walks.
Dustin Fowler Sues White Sox Over Injury
Athletics outfielder Dustin Fowler has brought a lawsuit against the White Sox and the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority relating to the serious knee injury he suffered in June, as Tom Schuba of the Chicago Sun Times reports.
Fowler was injured when he collided with an electrical box along the right field wall at Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field while chasing a foul pop-up. At the time, he was playing for the Yankees in his first major league baseball game. He suffered a ruptured patella tendon that required surgery and cost him the entire remainder of the season.
Now a member of the Athletics after being included in the Sonny Gray swap at the 2017 trade deadline, Fowler is working his way back in preparation for Spring Training. The hope is that he will regain his health and former trajectory as a player, though certainly it is not yet clear whether he’ll face ongoing physical limitations.
Fowler, who’ll soon turn 23, had increasingly been seen as an intriguing young player during the course of the 2017 season. He hit 13 home runs and posted a .293/.329/.542 batting line in 313 plate appearances at Triple-A, earning his first call-up.
According to the suit, the White Sox and/or Authority failed to adequately protect players from the unpadded electrical box, leaving players exposed to the sort of harm that Fowler ultimately suffered. He is seeking damages for “severe and permanent” injuries, pain and suffering, and certain medical costs.
NL East Links: Phillips, Mets, Second Base, Kipnis, Nats, Flores
The Braves don’t seem to have interest in bringing Brandon Phillips back to his hometown team, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter link). Phillips spent the first five months of the 2017 season with the Braves, hitting .291/.329/.423 over 499 PA before his production fell off after an August 31 deal to the Angels. Atlanta is known to be looking for veteran stop-gap options at third base until prospect Austin Riley is ready, and Phillips already moved to the hot corner last season to accommodate Ozzie Albies‘ promotion to the big leagues. There hasn’t been any hot stove buzz about Phillips this winter, as the 36-year-old looks to catch on for his 17th MLB season.
Some more news and notes from around the NL East…
- The Mets are still looking for help at second base, though they don’t appear to be close on some of the options on the trade market, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Team officials “indicated there was little momentum” in talks with the Phillies on Cesar Hernandez and the Pirates about Josh Harrison, while the Twins are giving the impression that Brian Dozier is unlikely to be dealt. The Brewers‘ Jonathan Villar is available in the wake of his down year, though Villar isn’t seen “as a serious possibility” by the Mets for now. Looking at outside-the-box possibilities, signing shortstop Zack Cozart and switching him to second base seems like a “long shot” scenario, a source tells Newsday’s Marc Carig (Twitter link).
- In a full story from Carig, he reports that the Mets are more willing to take on salary than give up significant prospects in trades. This could lead them to Jason Kipnis, who both Carig and Puma cite as potentially the Mets’ top second base target. The Indians owe Kipnis $28MM over the next two season, plus a $16.5MM club option for 2020 that carries a $2.5MM buyout. Also from Carig, he reports that the Mets don’t seem to have much interest in another second baseman, the Athletics‘ Jed Lowrie.
- It probably isn’t safe to rule out the Nationals on any Scott Boras client given the relationship between the team and the super-agent, and indeed, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) hears from some in the industry that Washington could be a “dark horse” contender to sign J.D. Martinez. In this scenario, the Nats would obtain a long-term slugger that would help them withstand the potential loss of Bryce Harper to free agency next winter. Cotillo suggests that the Nationals could shop Michael Taylor if they signed Martinez, though I’d argue that Taylor is better served as an (overqualified) fourth outfielder for 2018 who could move back into a starting role in 2019 if Harper leaves.
- The Phillies announced the hiring of Jose Flores the team’s first base coach and baserunning/infield instructor. This is Flores’ first job on a Major League coaching staff, after spending the last five years as the Cubs’ minor league infield coordinator, and several teams coaching and managing in Puerto Rico, including two years as the manager of Puerto Rico’s national team.
Athletics Acquire Stephen Piscotty
The Athletics have officially acquired outfielder Stephen Piscotty from the Cardinals. Minor league infielders Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock will head back to St. Louis in the swap.
Piscotty, who seemed like a shoo-in to leave the Cardinals via trade entering the offseason, became especially superfluous to the Redbirds when they swung a blockbuster to acquire fellow outfielder Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins on Wednesday. That deal left the Cardinals with three highly qualified starting outfielders in Ozuna, Dexter Fowler and Tommy Pham, thus leading to the end of Piscotty’s tenure with the club.
[RELATED: Updated Athletics Depth Chart]
Now 26, Piscotty joined the St. Louis organization as a first-round pick in 2012 and flashed moments of brilliance during his short major league stint there. Between his debut in 2015 and the end of the ’16 campign, the right-handed hitter slashed a terrific .282/.348/.467 with 29 home runs and a 3.9 fWAR in 905 plate appearances. The auspicious start to Piscotty’s career was enough to convince the Cardinals to award him a six-year extension worth a guaranteed $33.5MM prior to last season.
Unfortunately for St. Louis, early returns on the newly extended Piscotty weren’t positive in 2017. While Piscotty managed to significantly increase his walk rate to 13 percent (up from around 8 percent from 2015-16), his offensive production took an overall dive as he batted a disappointing .235/.342/.367 with nine homers and a subpar .132 ISO (down 53 points from the previous two seasons).
The Athletics will now hope for a bounce-back from Piscotty, a Northern California native and Stanford alumnus. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Wednesday that the Cards hoped a Piscotty trade would give him a chance to be closer to his mother, who’s battling ALS, and they were able to make good on that.
As Piscotty deals with a tragic situation off the field, he may be in line for a revival on it; his age, 2015-16 output and batted-ball misfortune are all encouraging signs. Piscotty finished 2017 with a .319 wOBA, but the number should have been closer to a solid .340, according to Statcast.
If Piscotty does return to something resembling his best form in Oakland, he’ll be an effective, affordable and young piece for the low-payroll club. The A’s saw other position player building blocks in first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Matt Chapman come to the fore in 2017, and, barring trades, have established hitters on hand in DH Khris Davis, corner outfielder Matt Joyce, second baseman Jed Lowrie and shortstop Marcus Semien. Piscotty, who’s likely to play opposite Joyce in one of the corners next year, is now in line to join a growing group of talent on a rebuilding club.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who has long reported upon the A’s interest in Piscotty, reported yesterday that the deal was nearing completion and today that a framework was in place (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of FanRag tweeted the deal was in place, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported it was moving forward this morning, and MLB.com’s Jane Lee tweeted the swap was official.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.