Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 11am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
New White Sox GM Chris Getz will have to be a miracle worker to turn this 61-win team into a 2024 contender, as the team severely lacks both talent and depth.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yoan Moncada, 3B: $29MM through 2024. Includes $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for 2025
- Eloy Jimenez, DH: $16MM through 2024. Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 ($3MM buyout) and $18.5MM club option for 2026 ($3MM buyout)
- Luis Robert, CF: $29.5MM through 2025. Includes $20MM club option for 2026 ($2MM buyout) and $20MM club option for 2027 ($2MM buyout)
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: $64MM through 2027
- Aaron Bummer, RP: $6.75MM through 2024. Includes $7.25MM club option with 2025 ($1.25MM buyout) and $7.5MM club option for 2026 ($1.25MM buyout)
Option Decisions
- Liam Hendriks, RP: $15MM club option with a $15MM buyout. If declined, buyout is paid in 10 annual installments of $1.5M from 2024-33
- Tim Anderson, SS: $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Mike Clevinger, SP: $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout
2024 commitments: $84.5MM
Total future commitments: $165.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Clint Frazier (4.098): $900K
- Dylan Cease (4.089): $8.8MM
- Michael Kopech (4.041): $3.6MM
- Trayce Thompson (4.010): $1.7MM
- Matt Foster (3.093): $740K
- Touki Toussaint (3.071): $1.7MM
- Garrett Crochet (3.028): $900K
- Andrew Vaughn (3.000): $3.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Frazier, Thompson, Foster, Toussaint
Free Agents
“If I had brought somebody in from the outside, just to repeat, it would have taken a year. I could’ve brought Branch Rickey back, and it would’ve taken him a year to evaluate the organization. So even though I had a list of outside people who I felt could do the job, I also had a list of one among the inside people who I felt could do the job as well as anybody I was going to interview. I didn’t have to interview these people, because I knew them all. And I knew that they were qualified but what I did know is that I had somebody inside who could start right away making things happen, and that’s the reason why Chris was selected.”
That’s White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, making rare public comments about a month ago in introducing new GM Chris Getz. The ever-loyal Reinsdorf had fired team president Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn about a week prior. Williams had become GM in 2001, moving above that position when Hahn became GM in 2012. That quote from Reinsdorf tells you all you need to know about the GM hiring process that led to Getz. Getz’s early front office hires include Brian Bannister, Josh Barfield, and Gene Watson.
Getz spent seven seasons as an MLB player, mostly for the White Sox and Royals, before taking on a player development role with Kansas City. He then spent seven seasons in charge of minor league operations and player development for the White Sox, picking up an assistant GM title along the way.
To be frank, it’s not clear what specific skills or successes made Getz qualified to be the GM of the White Sox in Reinsdorf’s eyes. Negatives include the Omar Vizquel-Wes Helms situation, and a generally poor record of White Sox minor leaguers meeting or exceeding expectations. Getz kicked off his tenure by committing to manager Pedro Grifol for next year, despite the club’s massively disappointing 61-101 record and several examples of clubhouse problems. Reliever Keynan Middleton, for example, spoke of “no rules or guidelines to follow,” later backed up by Lance Lynn.
From ownership to GM to manager, there is little to inspire confidence in the quick White Sox resurgence of which Reinsdorf spoke. However, we are mainly here to discuss how Getz might address the team’s many shortcomings in his first offseason. Reinsdorf said, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” so we’ll take him at his word even though the Sox would need a lot to compete in 2024. This post also takes under consideration that the White Sox have never paid the competitive balance tax, have never committed more than $75MM to a player, and have never paid a player $20MM per year.
Most of the team’s current catching depth was added by Hahn in a three-day span in late July, as a Kendall Graveman trade brought Korey Lee from the Astros and Edgar Quero was the key return in shipping Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels. MLB catchers averaged a 90 wRC+ this year as hitters, and neither the defensively-minded Lee nor the bat-first Quero seems capable of that in 2024. A veteran backstop in the Victor Caratini/Tom Murphy mold would make sense here.
Andrew Vaughn, 26 in April, was used at first base this year after being previously miscast as a corner outfielder based on the team’s needs. But the bar for offense is higher at first base, and Vaughn’s wRC+ dropped from 113 to 103 this year. A replacement level first baseman is hardly a win for the club, but the other holes seem more pressing so Vaughn’s job is likely secure.
In particular, the White Sox don’t have much going on in the middle infield for 2024. They ran through Elvis Andrus, Lenyn Sosa, Zach Remillard, and Romy Gonzalez at second base this year. The result was some of the worst production in baseball at the position. Prospect Jose Rodriguez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, reached the majors this year and will be an option. Adam Frazier could represent an affordable veteran free agent pickup, though for a team that seems oddly obsessed with the Royals, Whit Merrifield may be tempting to the front office. On the trade market, Jonathan India, Gleyber Torres, or Brandon Drury could be available.
Top prospect Colson Montgomery had his season debut delayed until mid-June with oblique and back injuries but acquitted himself well at High-A and Double-A. His likely MLB debut next year will be a bright spot for White Sox fans, and hopefully he’ll have shortstop locked up for the foreseeable future.
The White Sox hold a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout on longtime shortstop Tim Anderson. Anderson sounds willing to play some second base, and could serve as a bridge to Montgomery next year. But given an abysmal 60 wRC+ this year, a lengthy injury history, and a complicated legacy, Anderson does not make sense at his option price. The loyal-to-a-fault White Sox could bring him back at a lower rate, but moving on entirely might be helpful in rebooting the clubhouse. A shortstop-capable addition such as Amed Rosario could be helpful in keeping the seat warm for Montgomery and adding middle infield depth.
With Hahn having shipped off Jake Burger to the Marlins, Yoan Moncada remains the primary option at third base for the White Sox. Moncada, 29 in May, offered a glimmer of promise with a 125 wRC+ over the final two months, though that included striking out a third of the time. There’s too much money owed to Moncada to trade him in anything other than a bad contract swap. If Getz is able to find a way out of Moncada’s contract via trade, he could turn to free agency to fill the void. If Jeimer Candelario isn’t in the team’s price range, perhaps Gio Urshela could be. Perhaps more likely, the Sox will look to promote prospect Bryan Ramos early in the season after a solid year at Double-A.
Eloy Jimenez had one of his healthiest seasons in a years, but also slipped to a 105 wRC+ mostly out of the DH spot. Getz hasn’t said much to indicate his offseason plans, but his mention of getting more athletic has led some to speculate that Jimenez could be on the trading block. With DH being a relatively easy spot to fill, trading Jimenez for pitching could help with the team’s threadbare rotation. Jimenez will turn 27 in November and has club options for 2025 and ’26, and perhaps Getz can find a club enticed by his solid Statcast marks and 2020/2022 levels of offense.
Left field is a bit like first base for the White Sox: it’s hard to be happy with Andrew Benintendi’s replacement-level work out there this year, but the team has bigger fish to fry. Benintendi, signed through 2027, dropped to a career-worst 87 wRC+ at the plate and also alarmingly struggled defensively. There’s not much to do here beyond putting in offseason work for a hopeful bounceback.
Center fielder Luis Robert is the best reason to watch the 2024 White Sox. The 26-year-old managed to stay healthy this year with 145 games played, putting up 38 home runs and a 128 wRC+ with strong center field defense. Robert’s 5-WAR potential was finally realized in 2023, and the Sox have him under control through 2027.
Right field, on the other hand, continues to befuddle the White Sox. The team mostly turned to Oscar Colas and Gavin Sheets this year, to disastrous results. Despite coming off a down year, a free agent like Teoscar Hernandez might require topping the largest contract in White Sox history (currently Benintendi’s $75MM). Even a bargain bin Hunter Renfroe or Chicago return for Jason Heyward would be an upgrade over what the Sox had in ’23. Given the way Merrifield’s defensive homes match up with the club’s biggest needs at second base and right field and the team’s attraction toward Royals connections, is there any way this match doesn’t happen?
We’ve established that the White Sox have four major holes position-wise, even if we pencil in their mostly-questionable incumbents. You might already be covering your eyes, but we have to talk about the rotation.
Dylan Cease offered up roughly similar strikeout, walk, and groundball rates as last year, but his ERA ballooned from 2.20 to 4.58. Hot take: it’ll land between those figures next year. The bigger question is whether Cease should be traded with two years of control remaining, which most teams would be taking a hard look at given the lack of talent on hand. But again, Reinsdorf says he’s seeking a quick turnaround (that’s why he didn’t interview any GM candidates other than Getz), in which case the team pretty much has to keep Cease.
Michael Kopech struggled as a starter this season, moving to the bullpen for a few September outings before succumbing to knee surgery. Grifol has already stated Kopech will be viewed as a starter next year. Once Kopech recovers from surgery (a 6-8 week timeline), new hire Brian Bannister will get to work on turning his career around. Presumably pitching coach Ethan Katz will be involved as well.
Former prospect Touki Toussaint picked up 15 starts for the White Sox this year, but he displayed the control problems so prevalent in their rotation. Jesse Scholtens made 11 starts, most of which went poorly after a nice three-start run. Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito were traded, while Mike Clevinger is set for free agency.
Clevinger, 33 in December, will likely seek a two-year deal after posting a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts. Clevinger’s subpar strikeout and groundball rates don’t support that ERA, but it’s possible the White Sox bring him back. The White Sox should add at least three credible starters this winter if they’re looking to contend in 2024.
Assuming the White Sox will not play at the top of the market means ruling out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Aaron Nola. Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shota Imanaga are potentially out of their price range as well. Aside from Clevinger, free agents such as Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen seem possible here. The club could also take on injury or bounceback cases like Frankie Montas, Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, James Paxton, or Luis Severino. Guaranteed Rate Field is not viewed as a pitcher’s park, so the Sox may have to pay extra to land any somewhat-desirable free agent.
It’s a bit early to predict the trade market, as few if any teams both hold quality starting pitching and have committed to rebuilding for 2024. Starting pitchers were rarely traded last offseason, beyond Pablo Lopez.
Getz knows the farm system well (a key reason he was hired), so it’s safe to assume he’s got internal candidates for the 2024 rotation. The White Sox do not have any major Double or Triple-A successes knocking on the door for next year’s rotation, however. One sleeper could be former first rounder Garrett Crochet, who is is currently healthy after missing most of the season due to April 2022 Tommy John surgery and a subsequent shoulder strain.
The White Sox have an interesting decision to make in the bullpen. When Hahn devised Liam Hendriks’s odd club option for 2024 – $15MM with a $15MM buyout – the pitcher being out for the season was the only possible reason. If the option is declined, that $15MM is paid out in 10 annual installments from 2024-33. Financially, that’s preferable to picking it up paying it out throughout 2024 for a guy who won’t pitch next season due to recent Tommy John surgery. So barring a fresh contract with the White Sox, Hendriks is likely to become a free agent. He seems likely to land a two-year deal with an eye on 2025, so both parties will have to decide whether to pursue that.
The White Sox shed most of their veteran relievers in midseason trades, and holdover Bryan Shaw is a free agent. In terms of relievers the Sox used in high-leverage situations this year, they’re mostly left with Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos. Bummer, who posted a 6.79 ERA, is under contract through next year. Santos showed promise, and Crochet will be in the bullpen if he’s not used as a starter.
One of Hahn’s faults as GM was using too much of his limited budget on the bullpen, but Getz should probably add veteran relief help this winter. Under the previous regime, the Sox went especially big on the David Robertson (2014-15 offseason) and Hendriks (2020-21) contracts. But with so many needs to fill, it seems unlikely the team springs for a record Josh Hader deal. The club could otherwise consider bringing Reynaldo Lopez back, or explore the remainder of the top of the market for Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, or Jordan Hicks. Aside from those players, we don’t see too many relievers getting three-plus years.
At the least, a competent 2024 White Sox team would seem to need a catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple relievers. They’d need Robert to stay healthy again and most of the other holdovers to improve upon 2023. As daunting as that sounds, the White Sox could reasonably add around $75MM in 2024 money without increasing their payroll. If Getz is given that level of spending power, he’ll at least have the chance to remake the team in his image over the winter.
The Opener: Playoffs, Game 2 Starters, Padres
Three headlines from the baseball world, as the first round of the postseason could potentially end today…
1. AL Wild Card Series matchups
The Rays will turn to starter Zach Eflin to keep their season alive when Tampa Bay hosts the Rangers in Game 2 this afternoon. Signed to a three-year, $40MM deal this past offseason, Eflin delivered a very strong season, becoming a rock of stability within an injury-riddled Rays rotation. Texas will try to clinch the series with Nathan Eovaldi (a former Ray) on the mound, and Eovaldi will be looking to add to an impressive postseason resume. The winner of a World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2018, Eovaldi has a 3.14 ERA over 43 innings in 11 career playoff games.
In the other ALWC series, Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray are the starting pitchers for the Blue Jays and Twins. Berrios is a longtime former Twin who came to Toronto in a deal at the 2021 trade deadline, and he is now tasked with beating his ex-club in an elimination game. The Blue Jays’ inconsistent offense again surfaced in Game 1’s 3-1 loss, and things won’t get much easier for Toronto against Gray, who enjoyed arguably the best season of his 11-year career in 2023.
2. NL Wild Card Series matchups
The Diamondbacks can complete the upset over the Brewers with a victory in Game 2, with ace Zac Gallen taking the mound for his first career postseason game. Gallen and Merrill Kelly (scheduled to start a Game 3, if necessary) have carried an otherwise shaky D’Backs rotation throughout the season, and Milwaukee will now have to try to make the comeback against Arizona’s two best pitchers. The Brewers will counter with a big arm of their own in Freddy Peralta, but the lineup also needs to be better after stranding 11 baserunners in a 6-3 loss in Game 1.
Speaking of shaky offenses, the Marlins were one of the lower-scoring teams in baseball this season, and the bats weren’t there in a 4-1 loss to the Phillies in Game 1. Braxton Garrett will make his first career playoff start, looking to continue his good form after posting a 2.56 ERA over his last 11 regular-season starts (59 2/3 innings). Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies, and while Nola’s upcoming free agency will be one of the primary storylines of Philadelphia’s offseason, the Phils obviously hope their offseason is still a ways off.
3. Status quo in San Diego?
In the wake of a disappointing Padres season, there has been much speculation that either manager Bob Melvin or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could be losing their jobs. However, team chairman Peter Seidler gave both men a vote of confidence on Monday, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that a “productive” meeting took place Monday between Melvin and Preller. There has yet to be a formal announcement from the team on either man’s status for 2024, and it is possible there might not be one if both Melvin and Preller are indeed staying. Acee writes that for now, it seems like both will be keeping their jobs.
Joey Votto Remains Unsure If He’ll Play In 2024
Joey Votto may have played his final game in a Reds uniform. It’s hard to imagine, given just how long Votto has been a fixture in Cincinnati, but it’s equally hard to imagine the Reds will pick up his $20MM team option for 2024.
Speaking to reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer) after the final game of the regular season on Sunday, Votto had little insight to offer about his future with the Reds or in Major League Baseball. “As far as my future, my individual future, I’m still not there yet,” he explained. “I’m just not there.”
It’s perfectly understandable that Votto isn’t ready to make a decision. The Reds were still alive in the postseason hunt until the final days of the season, and the de facto team captain says he didn’t want to think about anything other than the playoff push. More to the point, the first decision isn’t his to make; the Reds must choose whether to exercise his $20MM option or pay him a $7MM buyout.
Still, the veteran’s comments are telling. The fact that he doesn’t have an answer about his future means the possibility of retirement has at least crossed his mind. A player with his talent and track record could certainly find a new deal this offseason, whether with the Reds or another club, but at 40 years old, Votto could be getting ready to hang up his hat. He is coming off two injury-plagued seasons with the worst and second-worst OPS numbers of his career. The six-time All-Star has always been highly competitive, as he mentioned on Sunday. If he no longer feels like he can compete at the highest level, he might prefer to quit before his skills decline any further.
As for the Reds, they have a pair of promising youngsters who could take the reins from Votto next season. Rookie Spencer Steer started 53 games at first in 2023. Overall, he played in 156 contests, leading the team in plate appearances, home runs, and RBI. Among his teammates (min. 150 PA), he finished third with an .820 OPS and a 118 wRC+. Christian Encarnacion-Strand also played a handful of games for the Reds at first base after a midseason call-up. In his first taste of big league action, he slashed .270/.328/.477 with 13 home runs in 63 games.
This is not to say the Reds couldn’t make room for Votto next season; when healthy, he was still the team’s primary first baseman in 2023. However, if they choose to keep him around next year, it will be for his veteran leadership and because of what he means to the franchise, not because they have a hole to fill at first base.
If Cincinnati doesn’t pick up his option, Votto will have to decide if he wants to join fellow veterans Miguel Cabrera and Adam Wainwright in retirement or if he would rather keep playing to pad his potential Hall of Fame resume. Whatever they choose to do, the Reds will have to make a decision within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.
Injury Notes: McCarthy, Pham, Giants, Hoskins
The Diamondbacks announced this evening that outfielder Jake McCarthy had been removed from the club’s playoff roster prior to tonight’s opener of the Wild Card series against the Brewers, with infielder Jace Peterson taking McCarthy’s place on the roster. Per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, McCarthy sustained an oblique injury during batting practice just before the game. McCarthy will be ineligible to play in both the Wild Card series and the NLDS, though he could return to the club’s postseason roster for the NLCS in the event he makes it that far.
McCarthy had a breakout season for the Diamondbacks last year, with a .283/.342/.427 slash line in 99 games with the club. Unfortunately for both Arizona and McCarthy, he struggled to live up to his rookie campaign during his age-25 season this year. Over 312 trips to the plate in 2023, McCarthy hit just .243/.318/.326 as his power nearly completely evaporated- after slugging 27 extra base hits including eight home runs in 2022, he managed just 14 extra base hits with two home runs this year. Replacing McCarthy as a left-handed bat off the bench is Peterson, who has batted .211/.304/.307 in 133 games this year split between Oakland and Arizona.
More injury news from around the league…
- Sticking with the Diamondbacks, fellow outfielder Tommy Pham has been dealing with injury struggles of his own, telling MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert that he’s currently battling turf toe and left open the possibility that he would receive an injection to help alleviate the pain before the game earlier tonight. Pham’s slashed a solid .256/.328/.446 over 129 games with the Mets and Diamondbacks this year but has largely been limited to playing DH since the start of September, perhaps due in part to his current ailment.
- During the end-of-season press conference for the Giants today, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi provided updates on a pair of injured players. As relayed by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, outfielder Austin Slater is set to undergo arthroscopic elbow surgery this offseason after several years of discomfort in the area. Slater, who slashed .270/.348/.400 in 89 games for San Francisco this season, figures to be ready for Spring Training in February. Pavlovic also relays that right-hander Alex Cobb is set to get a second opinion on the hip impingement that left him on the injured list for the last few weeks of the season in the near future. Cobb, who turns 36 later this week, was the club’s only regular starter behind ace Logan Webb and performed well in that role when healthy enough to take the field, posting a 3.87 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 151 1/3 innings of work.
- Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who has been out all season due to a torn ACL, threw out the first pitch prior to the club’s win over the Marlins in Game 1 of the Wild Card series this evening. That might not be his only part in Philadelphia’s postseason run if the club makes it back to the World Series, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted today that Hoskins is set to head to the club’s stay-ready camp in Clearwater, Florida to begin facing pitchers in live batting practice. The news represents a major step in Hoskins’ recovery and leaves the door open for Hoskins to return at the end of the club’s postseason run if they can make it that far, much like how teammate Kyle Schwarber made it back from a torn ACL of his own to DH for the Cubs during the 2016 World Series.
Zaidi: Marco Luciano Will Have “The Chance” To Be Giants’ Everyday Shortstop In 2024
With longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford‘s contract having run its course, the Giants will be looking at a new starting shortstop in 2024 for the first time in over a decade. While the club pursued Carlos Correa in free agency last offseason to take over the reins at short, the club now appears poised to stay internal as they look for their future shortstop. As relayed by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters as much during his end-of-season presser today, saying that “As we sit here now, we want to give Marco Luciano the chance to be the everyday guy next year.”
“If anything, his call-up was slowed down by the injury he had this year,” Zaidi added. “We would have liked to see him up here a little bit more, but he’s worked his way up and earned this opportunity and we’re really excited about what we saw the last couple of weeks.”
With that vote of confidence, it seems fairly safe to assume that the club won’t pursue significant upgrades up the middle, instead placing Luciano at short with Thairo Estrada, who was among the club’s most valuable hitters in 2023 alongside Lamonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores, remaining at second base. Luciano hit .231/.333/.308 with a 37.8% strikeout rate during his time in the big leagues this year, though of course that was a minuscule sample size of just 45 plate appearances. More representative of the talent that made Luciano a consensus top-40 prospect in the game entering the 2023 campaign is his .259/.356/.479 slash line in 292 career minor league games, including a .223/.334/.442 slash line in 320 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A this year.
The shortstop position was far from the only thing Zaidi addressed during the presser, of course. Zaidi noted (per Pavlovic) that he hopes to create a more athletic roster with improved defense this offseason, citing both Luciano and fellow rookie Tyler Fitzgerald as possible pieces of the puzzle in that regard. Fitzgerald slashed .219/.265/.469 in 34 plate appearances at the big league level this year while playing both third base and center field. In 121 games between the Double-A and Triple-A level in 2023, Fitzgerald slashed an impressive .292/.365/.511.
Zaidi also discussed the club’s managerial search following the club’s dismissal of Gabe Kapler last week. As relayed by Pavlovic, Zaidi indicated that the club plans to begin the interview process next week with internal candidates before expanding to asking for permission to interview candidates from other organizations. As the club looks for a new manager, Zaidi also indicated that the Giants are heading into 2024 with uncertainty about his own future as things stand, confirming to reporters (including Danny Emerman of KNBR) that he’s headed into the final year of his contract in 2024.
Terry Francona Officially Steps Down As Guardians Manager
The Guardians announced this afternoon that Terry Francona has officially stepped down from his role as the club’s manager. The news was of no surprise, as Francona’s retirement from managing has long been expected. As noted by Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Francona will remain in the Guardians organization, though his exact role going forward has yet to be determined.
The news brings to an end a brilliant managerial career. Francona’s career as a manager first began with the Phillies, for whom he managed from 1997-2000, though Philadelphia never reached the postseason or even posted a winning record during his time at the helm. A few years later, Francona emerged as the manager of the 2004 Red Sox, the team that famously won 98 games under his leadership before going on to win the franchise’s first World Series since 1918. After breaking the Curse of the Bambino, Francona went on to manage for another seven seasons in Boston, making the post season four more times, including a second World Series championship in 2007. He finished his tenure as Boston’s manager with 744 wins, good for a .574 winning percentage.
Francona then sat out the 2012 campaign before joining Cleveland as the club’s manager in 2013. In eleven seasons as the club’s manager, he piloted the club to nine winning seasons and six playoff appearances despite the club consistently ranking toward the bottom of the league in terms of payroll. The club’s most successful stretch under Francona came from 2016 to 2020, when the club made the postseason in four of five seasons, including a 2016 run that lasted until Game 7 of the World Series, while posting a 415-292 record, good for a winning percentage of .587.
Overall, Francona wraps up his managerial career with a 1950-1672 (.538) record over 23 years as a big league manager. During his time in Cleveland, Francona won AL Manager of the Year three times: in 2013, 2016, and 2022. He also finished 2nd in 2017 while recording top-5 finished on four separate occasions in Boston. He’s one of just nine managers in the history of the award to win on three or more occasions.
As Francona told reporters (including those at ESPN) this afternoon, he’s not yet sure what role he wants to play going forward as he moves into a new role in Cleveland. “I need to go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game,” Francona said, though he added that he doesn’t expect to manage again.
As for the Guardians, they’ll turn their attention to deciding who will be tasked with attempting to fill Francona’s shoes going forward. As noted by Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal, the club has already begun the interview process. Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz is among those who have been rumored as potential candidates for the position. Also reportedly under consideration was Guardians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr, though Lewis notes that Alomar declined to interview for the role.
Manny Machado Undergoes Elbow Surgery
Veteran third baseman Manny Machado underwent surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow today, the Padres announced. Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed the procedure. Machado’s timeline for recovery is estimated to be between four and six months, the early end of which would allow him to be ready in time for Spring Training while the later end would have him ready to return to shortly after Opening Day, though of course he could still need to build up from there in the event he misses Spring Training. The news was hardly a surprise, as Machado himself had previously indicated that elbow surgery was in his future.
It was a relative down season for Machado, 30, who slashed .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114 in 601 trips to the plate this season. After a standout 2022 that saw him accumulate a whopping 7.5 fWAR and finish second to Paul Goldschmidt in NL MVP voting, Machado was widely expected to opt-out of his contract this offseason and test the open market. Rather than risk that eventuality, the Padres opted to extend him through the 2033 campaign, adding an additional five years and $170MM to the six years and $180MM already guaranteed to him in his original deal.
Now, Machado will run the risk of entering the first season of his new megadeal in San Diego on the injured list. The club is already expected to cut payroll by around $50MM on the heels of a disappointing 82-80 season, and with uncertainty regarding their franchise third baseman, the club will have to do more with less in replacing Machado’s production for the first part of the season, in addition to returning or replacing pending free agent stars Blake Snell and Josh Hader.
Fortunately, that might be easier to do than one might expect. Though the club relied on depth options like Matthew Batten and Eguy Rosario down the stretch this season in Machado’s absence, the Padres figure to boast a deep group of infield options in 2024 even assuming the club prefers to keep Fernando Tatis Jr. in the outfield rather than move him back onto the dirt. With Xander Bogaerts entrenched at shortstop and utility infielder Ha-Seong Kim more than capable of sliding over to cover third base while Machado is unavailable, Jake Cronenworth could temporarily return to his natural position of second base after spending most of the 2023 campaign at first. That would open first base up for an external acquisition, a hypothetical return for deadline acquisition Garrett Cooper, or even veteran slugger Matt Carpenter, who struggled in 76 games this year but holds a $5.5MM player option for the 2024 campaign.
Mariners Leadership Discusses Offseason Plans, Injury Updates, Coaching Staff
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander, and manager Scott Servais conducted an end-of-season press conference with reporters this afternoon. The presser covered a variety of topics, including the club’s plans for the offseason, the future of the coaching staff, and updates regarding a few of the club’s injured players.
Dipoto took the opportunity to respond to comments from catcher Cal Raleigh on the night of Seattle’s elimination from postseason contention, in which he called upon the front office to spend more aggressively this offseason than the club has in the past and referenced other teams that acquired “big-time” pitchers and hitters in recent offseasons.
“His opinions are his own, and I don’t begrudge anybody the ability to share their opinions,” Dipoto said (as transcribed from a video courtesy of Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times), “I don’t know that the solution to our problems is big name players… but would I like to add big name players? Sure, I think we all would. I think that to the extent that Cal was trying to express an opinion, and I can’t speak for him, he wants to get better… we all do. Whether that is by way of a big-name player, you know, there are a number of teams that are evidence that that might not be the only way you can build a roster.”
For his part, Hollander added (as relayed by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that the club has “plenty of resources” headed into the offseason with which to acquire talent, both in terms of player capital for potential trades and financial power, as they look to return to the postseason in 2024. That tracks with publicly available information on Seattle’s financial situation headed into 2024. The club spent $152MM on player payroll in 2023, with the luxury tax payroll just passing $196MM. Before accounting for arbitration-level contracts, the club has around $45MM of budget space if the club’s budget remains stagnant relative to 2023, with over $75MM to work with for luxury tax purposes.
Servais, meanwhile, said (per Divish) that while the roles and responsibilities of certain personnel may change, the club expects to welcome back its entire coaching staff for the 2024 campaign. Hollander, meanwhile, provided updates on several injured players including left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, both of whom are expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.
The longest-tenured member of the Mariners, rotation, Gonzales made 131 starts for the club between 2018 and 2022 with a 3.94 ERA and 4.35 FIP, but managed just 50 innings of work this season due to a nerve issue that eventually required season-ending surgery. White, meanwhile, underwent hip surgery back in May. The 27-year-old signed a $24MM extension with Seattle prior to his big league debut but has struggled to hit at the big league level, with a career slash line of just .165/.235/.308.
The biggest news, as relayed by Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, was regarding that of left-hander Robbie Ray. The 2021 AL Cy Young award winner underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and he appears to be making progress as expected in his rehab process, with the club considering a return around the 2024 All Star break to be a “best-case scenario.” That would be just under 14 months after Ray underwent the surgery, on the quicker end of the typical Tommy John rehab for pitchers, which usually takes around 14-18 months. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA across 32 starts for the Mariners in 2022 but made just one appearance in 2023, allowing five runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings before departing his first start of the season due to injury.
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds made a surprising playoff push just one year removed from a 100-loss season. While they came up short in the final weekend, the influx of young talent reintroduced a jolt of excitement to the organization. They’re no longer upstarts. To take the next step, they’ll need to address the pitching staff.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Hunter Greene, RHP: $50MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
Option Decisions
- Team holds $20MM option on 1B Joey Votto ($7MM buyout)
- $4MM mutual option between team and C Curt Casali ($750K buyout)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe $4MM buyout to released 3B Mike Moustakas
- Owe $1.5MM buyout to released RF Wil Myers
2024 financial commitments: $16.25MM
Total future commitments: $63.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Lucas Sims
- Nick Senzel
- Derek Law
- Justin Dunn
- Tejay Antone
- Alex Young
- Jake Fraley
- Tyler Stephenson
- Jonathan India
- Vladimir Gutierrez (potential Super Two)
Non-tender candidates: Senzel, Law, Dunn, Gutierrez
Free Agents
- Buck Farmer, Joey Votto (assuming option declined), Luke Maile, Curt Casali, Harrison Bader
Few outside the Cincinnati organization expected the Reds to hang in the playoff mix all season. They made a rapid jump from clear rebuilder to potential Wild Card team as they graduated a number of talented young players, largely on the position player side.
There’s more reason for optimism than there has been entering each of the previous two offseasons. Ownership is clearly happy with the organizational direction. The Reds signed manager David Bell to a three-year extension in July. Last week, they promoted front office head Nick Krall from GM to president of baseball operations in conjunction with an extension of undisclosed length. Brad Meador received the general manager title, solidifying him as the #2 executive.
The focus now turns to the roster. Cincinnati’s first offseason decision is a straightforward one, though it could mark the symbolic end of a previous era in franchise history. The guaranteed portion of Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM extension has wrapped up. The Reds will obviously opt for a $7MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option, sending Votto to the open market for the first time in his career. The $13MM price point is beyond what a 40-year-old first baseman coming off a second straight middling offensive season could find in free agency.
Votto, of course, has constructed a strong Hall of Fame case during his 17 years in Cincinnati. He won the 2010 NL MVP and finished in the top three in balloting on two more occasions. He’s a career .294/.409/.511 hitter who ranks 93rd in major league history having reached base 3581 times, the highest mark for any active player. Votto is one of the greatest players in franchise history and among the most productive first basemen ever.
It’s not a guarantee that Votto’s time in Cincinnati is complete. The six-time All-Star has thus far been noncommittal about whether he’ll continue his playing career. After Sunday’s season finale, he told the beat he “just (doesn’t) have an answer yet” about his future (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds could certainly look to bring him back on a cheaper one-year pact if he wants to return for an 18th season.
While Votto is a franchise icon, the Reds aren’t facing the loss of much 2023 on-field production from any of their impending free agents. They’ll decline their end of a $4MM mutual option on backup catcher Curt Casali. Third backstop Luke Maile heads back to the open market, though the Northern Kentucky native would probably be open to another cheap one-year pact to stick with the Reds if they wanted to keep him as the #2 catcher.
Cincinnati got surprisingly little from that position this past season. Tyler Stephenson entered the year as one of the game’s most promising young catchers. The Reds hoped that more time divided between catching and designated hitter would keep him healthy after a series of fluke injuries impacted his ’22 campaign. That proved to be the case, but Stephenson didn’t hit well. Over a career-high 517 plate appearances, he managed only a .242/.317/.378 line — well off the .296/.369/.454 pace he carried into the year.
He hit the ball reasonably hard, although his grounder rate spiked dramatically in the second half. Stephenson was one of the few controllable position players who underperformed expectations. Given his pre-2023 track record and a weak free agent catching class, the Reds probably give him another chance as the #1 option. They’ll need to sign at least one backup, whether Maile or a similar player.
Cincinnati is unlikely to make many additions on the infield dirt. They have a deep collection of young talent. Spencer Steer can play any of the corner spots on the diamond and saw limited action at second base. He is not a great defender anywhere but hit his way into the lineup across multiple positions. It’s a similar story with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another rookie corner infielder who joined the Reds in the lopsided Tyler Mahle trade with Minnesota.
Steer is the more complete hitter at this point, while Encarnacion-Strand covered for middling plate discipline with plus power. They both managed above-average results in their first extended looks at big league arms — Steer had struggled in a cup of coffee on the 2022 team — and look like potential middle-of-the-order bats from the right side. Encarnacion-Strand saw the bulk of his time at first base and DH down the stretch.
That’s in part because he isn’t a great third base defender, though it also hints at the amount of up-the-middle talent the Reds possess. Matt McLain had arguably the best rookie campaign of any Cincinnati player, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers in 89 games before a season-ending oblique injury. He seized the primary shortstop job. That pushed Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte — both of whom came up primarily as shortstop prospects — to the hot corner.
Marte also raked in a 35-game sample after his promotion in late August. The results were mixed on De La Cruz, who showed the tantalizing physical gifts that made him an arguable top five prospect but also the concerning plate discipline profile that left some evaluators cautious.
De La Cruz concluded his rookie year with a .235/.300/.410 slash through 427 trips. He hit 13 home runs, stole 35 bases and showed top-of-the-scale arm strength with regularity. Yet his overall defensive ratings were mixed and he struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. After a scorching start, he had a rough second half. It was still an impressive showing for a 21-year-old at the major league level. There’s star potential for anyone with this combination of raw power, speed and arm talent — particularly with a switch-hitter who can play on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz’s consistency was behind that of most of his rookie teammates, though.
It’s hard to imagine the Reds starting De La Cruz back in Triple-A to begin next season. They’ll need a spot for McLain, however, and Marte certainly didn’t play his way down. There’s also an incentive for the Reds to carry Marte, who retains his rookie eligibility, on next year’s Opening Day roster. If they carry him for a full service year and he wins Rookie of the Year, they’d receive an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive.
That surplus is before getting to the player who was Cincinnati’s best position player not too long ago: second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year hit .244/.338/.407 in 529 trips to the plate. That’s league average production, his second straight season in that range. While India started the season strong, his offense dipped by June. He lost a good portion of the second half battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot.
India consistently receives below-average grades from public metrics for his second base defense. It’s a bat-first profile and he hasn’t hit especially well since his debut campaign. There’s an argument he should be the odd one out of the very talented infield. His name surfaced in a trade rumor around the deadline, though subsequent reports quickly shot down the likelihood of Cincinnati moving him.
While the 26-year-old again stands as an on-paper trade candidate, there’s no guarantee the Reds will seriously consider offers. India is one of the more experienced players on a very young roster and multiple Cincinnati players have suggested he’s a key figure in the clubhouse. India conceded he was affected by the speculation he’d be dealt around the deadline, even taking a game off for a mental reset. The Reds may not want to move him, especially since his trade value is at its lowest ebb during his major league career. Between his defensive grades and middling offense over the final few months, India isn’t likely to bring back an above-average starting pitcher with multiple years of club control — even in a down free agent infield class.
Former #2 overall pick Nick Senzel opened the season at third base after struggling in center field in prior years. He started the year strong, at least against left-handed pitching, but his bat tailed off in the second half. Cincinnati sent him down for a couple weeks in August. While he finished the season on the big league roster, there’s a good chance he’s traded for a minimal return or simply non-tendered.
If the Reds hold the rest of their infielders, that could push Steer into the corner outfield. He’d likely play left field on most days. Will Benson and Jake Fraley each had strong results as left-handed hitting corner outfielders. The Reds shielded both players from left-handed pitching. Even with Steer seeing outfield reps, there’s room for a right-handed platoon bat.
Cincinnati brought in Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers as stopgaps in late August. Renfroe was quickly released, while Bader seems likely to sign with a team that can offer everyday center field reps. Someone like Robbie Grossman or Aaron Hicks — both switch-hitters who are better against lefty pitching — could make sense to fill that role. Grossman is likely to sign a one-year deal worth a few million dollars. Hicks is available to every club at the league minimum salary after being released by the Yankees, so his camp will sort through a number of offers at the same price in search of the ideal team fit.
TJ Friedl doesn’t receive the same amount of attention as his younger teammates, but he played at an All-Star level (.279/.352/.467 with 18 homers) in center field this year. He’s an excellent contact hitter with plus speed and solid defense. Friedl is somewhat quietly a very valuable player, one whom Bell can comfortably plug into a top-two spot in the lineup as a table-setter.
At age 28 and under club control for five more seasons, Friedl is unlikely to be an extension candidate. The Reds could have interest in trying to get a deal done with one or more of their early-mid 20s hitters. Steer is under control for five seasons. De La Cruz, McLain, Marte and Encarnacion-Strand are all controllable for six more years. Extensions for players with less than one year of MLB service are rare but not unheard of.
Ronald Acuña, Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll all signed nine-figure pacts before their first full year in the big leagues. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert signed in the $50MM range before making their MLB debuts. The Reds don’t have anyone who’s yet established at the Acuña, Franco or Carroll level. Those players were all consensus top five prospects who’d found immediate MLB success. Something around Robert’s $50MM could be a reasonable proposal to De La Cruz or Marte if the Reds are interested in buying out two or three free agent seasons. McLain might be a trickier player to value, since he had more initial success than De La Cruz but wasn’t as highly-regarded as a prospect, but he’s also a potential candidate. Willingness to sign an early-career extension varies by player. It’s at least something the front office could consider.
It’s a little less stable on the pitching staff. They signed Hunter Greene to a $50MM guarantee in April. That’s their only contractual commitment outside of option buyouts, leaving open the possibility for more long-term deals. Something in the $50MM range also made sense for southpaw Nick Lodolo preseason. He’s coming off a year derailed by left shin injuries, so the Reds will probably wait on a long-term pact until he’s back on the mound.
24-year-old Andrew Abbott put himself in the conversation alongside Greene and Lodolo as potential rotation cornerstones. The 6’0″ southpaw turned in a 3.87 ERA through his first 21 major league starts, striking out 26.1% of opponents in the process. It’s a little early to consider Abbott an extension candidate — teams tend to wait on starting pitchers until they have a year-plus of service time — but he is clearly in the ’24 rotation and could be the Opening Day starter.
Adding a mid-rotation veteran should be the front office’s main priority. Greene and Lodolo battled injuries and inconsistency. Abbott set a career mark with 163 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues this summer. Graham Ashcraft eats innings but had an up-and-down season. While Brandon Williamson found his stride nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign, his minor league track record is mixed. Journeyman Ben Lively faded after a nice start. Prospect Connor Phillips has huge stuff and whiff rates but control woes that lead some evaluators to point to a possible bullpen future.
The Reds can’t go into next year counting on each of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson to hold a spot all season. They’ll need more depth than they had this year, when they gave Luke Weaver 21 starts and turned to Lively and Luis Cessa a combined 18 times.
Cincinnati has spent less than $15MM in free agency in each of the last two offseasons. There’s no reason for that to continue given the clean payroll outlook. The contracts for Votto and Mike Moustakas are off the books aside from option buyouts. They have just over $16MM in 2024 commitments at present. It’s a solid but hardly overwhelming group of arbitration-eligible players.
The Reds aren’t going to make a play for Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s difficult to project them as a candidate to top $100MM on Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola given their spending habits. Yet they’ve shown a willingness to go into the middle tier of the free agent market in prior offseasons, guaranteeing $64MM each to Moustakas and Nick Castellanos.
Old friend Sonny Gray will probably stretch beyond that number and cost a draft choice after rejecting a qualifying offer. Eduardo Rodriguez cannot receive the QO and could be available on a four-year pact in the $70-80MM range if he opts out of his deal with the Tigers. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are possibilities on a two or three-year deal.
Cincinnati could add a starter in free agency while also looking to the trade market. India could return a back-end type, even if he’s unlikely to get the ball rolling for someone like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert. Dealing any of McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte or De La Cruz ranges from unlikely to ‘not happening,’ but they’d all have ample trade appeal. Perhaps the major league infield depth frees them to explore possibilities involving prospects Edwin Arroyo or Cam Collier for controllable rotation help.
They’ll also likely add in the bullpen. Cincinnati has a few solid arms but it’s a roughly average relief group overall. It’s anchored by All-Star closer Alexis Díaz. Deadline pickup Sam Moll is a good ground-ball lefty. Low-cost additions of Alex Young and Ian Gibaut have added middle relief depth. Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone can all miss bats at a high level, although Cruz and Sims have scattershot command and Antone has battled forearm problems. Buck Farmer, who was second on the team with 75 relief innings, is headed to free agency.
Cincinnati won’t be in on Josh Hader, but they have the financial room to play in the lower to middle tiers. Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, old friend Robert Stephenson and Pierce Johnson are all likely to land multi-year deals. Players like Ryne Stanek or Keynan Middleton could be available as one or cheaper two-year fliers.
Given the young talent on the roster and the payroll space, there’s more opportunity for the front office to add than has existed in quite some time. It’s an exciting time for Reds’ fans again. They were ahead of schedule in 2023 and came up a little bit short of the postseason. Next year’s team should have legitimate playoff aspirations from day one. It’s up to the front office to add the pitching necessary to make that happen.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Reds-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.
Perry Minasian Discusses Ohtani, Payroll, Nevin
Angels GM Perry Minasian conducted the club’s end-of-season presser this afternoon, and in doing so discussed an array of topics with reporters following a brutally disappointing 2023 campaign that saw the club go 73-89 during Shohei Ohtani‘s last season under club control and miss the postseason for the ninth consecutive season.
Speaking of Ohtani, Minasian told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that he believes “this is a place that he enjoys playing and this is a place that he loves.” Though he acknowledged that Ohtani was disappointed that the club didn’t improve in 2023 (instead posting an identical record to the 2022 club), he adds that “you get the feeling that this is a place he really, really appreciates, respects. And we’ll just have to see what happens over the course of the offseason.”
Minasian’s comments regarding Ohtani, while reiterating the the team would love to retain the two-way phenom next season, give Angels fans little reason for optimism as Ohtani heads to the open market with a chance at a record-setting free agent deal, even as he rehabs from an elbow procedure that will keep him off of the mound until 2025. Further casting doubt on a potential return to Anaheim for Ohtani were comments from Minasian regarding the club’s payroll outlook, as the GM admitted (as relayed by Sam Blum of The Athletic), that he couldn’t say whether or not ownership would be willing to replicate the club’s 2023 payroll, which was the highest of Arte Moreno’s tenure as owner. Re-signing Ohtani would almost certainly require a massive financial outlay, to say nothing of the other additions necessary to build a contender around both him and fellow generational star Mike Trout.
While Minasian said that Moreno is “motivated to win”, he also admitted that he isn’t yet certain whether or not the club was able to duck under the luxury tax threshold by the end of the year. In service of that goal, the clubs lashed payroll in the final months of the season by putting half-a-dozen veteran players on expiring deals on waivers, including major deadline acquisition Lucas Giolito. If the Angels do wind up paying the luxury tax in 2023, it will be the first time they’ve done so under Moreno’s ownership.
Minasian also discussed the club’s decision to part ways with manager Phil Nevin and the uncertain futures of members of both the coaching staff and front office. Minasian noted (per Blum) that the club had not yet made any final personnel decisions beyond moving on from Nevin as manager, who was let go due to a “collaborative” decision between Moreno and Minasian himself. As Blum notes, it’s an interesting departure from the decision to fire manager Joe Maddon last summer, which was made by Minasian alone. It would appear the club hasn’t begun to determine who will replace Nevin as manager, as Fletcher notes that Minasian told reporters that the club does not yet have a list of potential managerial candidates, and that there’s no timeline for a decision at this point.