The Rays stumbled into the All-Star Break. The Red Sox swept them in a four-game set at Fenway to conclude the first half. Tampa Bay has dropped 11 of their past 14 games. They’d climbed as high as 11 games above .500 in late June; they’re now just three over at 50-47.
Like many other fringe contenders, the Rays face a pivotal upcoming two weeks. They’ll play host to the Orioles and White Sox for very winnable series coming out of the Break. They’ll hit the road for sets in Cincinnati and a four-game series against the Yankees running through July 31. President of baseball operations Erik Neander acknowledged to Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times that the club’s deadline plans will in part be shaped by how they begin the second half.
“We’ve got to make up some ground,” Neander said of a team that sits a game and a half behind the Mariners for the last AL Wild Card spot. “There’s a belief in this team. … But these are really big games that will have some sort of influence on our decision-making as the month draws to a close.”
Unsurprisingly, Neander expressed hope that the team plays well enough for the front office to add. “I’d like to think that just about anything I think this group is capable of over these few weeks will lead us in a position where we’re looking to at least improve somewhere on the roster, if not significantly so,” he told Topkin. “But we’ve got to go out and play well and win. If we don’t, or if we have a stretch the way we had the last couple of weeks going into the Break, that comes with all sorts of additional questions that I’d much rather not think about.”
The Rays rarely operate as strict buyers or sellers. Remaining consistently competitive while operating with bottom five payrolls requires an openness to listening on veteran players even in years where they’re simultaneously trying to add to the big league roster. Tampa Bay already made one notable trade this month, acquiring controllable setup man Bryan Baker from Baltimore for the 37th pick in last Sunday’s draft. They could continue to add to the bullpen and/or bring in a right-handed bat (ideally in the outfield).
At the same time, they’ll certainly get calls on their more expensive players. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported last night that the Red Sox would be interested in Yandy Díaz if the Rays make him available. Boston has an obvious need for a right-handed hitting first baseman. Still, it’s not clear if the Rays will shop Díaz at all — much less to a division rival that currently sits 2.5 games above them in the standings.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays would likely hold onto Díaz, who is signed at a bargain rate for another two and a half seasons. He’s making $10MM this year and is guaranteed $12MM for next season. There’s a $10MM club option for ’27 that would vest at $13MM if he takes 500 plate appearances next year. Díaz and the Rays initially agreed to the extension in 2023 and restructured it just this spring to guarantee his ’26 earnings while adding the option year.
Rosenthal argues the Rays may be reluctant to trade Díaz so soon after he agreed to a team-friendly extension. That said, one could’ve made a similar point regarding Tyler Glasnow — whom the Rays traded to the Dodgers a little over a year after he signed an extension. Rosenthal nevertheless suggests that Tampa Bay would be likelier to move second baseman Brandon Lowe or closer Pete Fairbanks if the team doesn’t play well coming out of the Break.
Lowe went on the injured list with left oblique tightness last week but could be reinstated when first eligible tomorrow. He’s making $10.5MM this year and controllable for another season on an $11.5MM club option. Lowe started the year slowly but has been on a tear since May and is up to 19 homers with a .272/.324/.487 batting line.
Fairbanks has a 2.75 ERA and has gone 15-18 in save opportunities over 36 innings. His strikeout rate has been trending down for a couple seasons, though, dropping to a career-low 20.7% clip. While Fairbanks is playing this year on an extremely affordable $3.667MM salary, his contract contains an increasingly expensive club option for 2026.
That initially came with a $7MM base value but contained up to $6MM in escalators. Fairbanks has already pushed the option price to $8MM by reaching 125 appearances over the past three seasons and topping 25 games finished this year. It’ll climb by another $1MM when he makes three more appearances, $1MM more with 18 appearances, and another $1MM with 23 more games. It’d jump by $500K apiece with three, eight, and 13 more games finished.
Unless he suffers a significant injury, Fairbanks should push the option value well into eight figures. That’d make him one of the highest-paid players on the 2026 roster. As long as they’re in the playoff picture, the Rays may view that as an offseason problem. This year’s salary can only climb by a maximum of $300K. Yet it’s a factor for a front office that needs to balance the short and long term as much as any.
Beyond Lowe and Fairbanks, the Rays seem likely to shop a starting pitcher. Impending free agent Zack Littell is the most obvious candidate, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that they’re open to inquiries on controllable righty Taj Bradley.
The Rays have a strong rotation of Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Littell and Bradley. Hard-throwing righty Joe Boyle is pitching in multi-inning relief, but Neander reiterated to Topkin that the Rays would be comfortable using Boyle as a starter if a spot opened. They’re also hopefully a couple weeks away from Shane McClanahan making his long-awaited return from injury.
