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Red Sox, Ronaldo Hernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are bringing catcher Ronaldo Hernández back to the organization on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The 27-year-old was released from a minor league deal with the Yankees a couple weeks ago. He had a three-day stint in the Mexican League before returning to the affiliated ranks. He’ll report to Triple-A Worcester.

Hernández was once a highly-regarded prospect in the Tampa Bay system. The Rays dealt him to the Red Sox in advance of the 2021 season. That turned out to be a lopsided deal in Tampa Bay’s favor, as they landed Jeffrey Springs in that four-player swap. Boston also acquired infielder Nick Sogard, while the Rays picked up reliever Chris Mazza. Hernández spent a couple seasons on Boston’s 40-man roster but went through outright waivers after the ’22 campaign.

The Colombia native played the ’23 season in Worcester. He spent last year in the Arizona system and made 25 Triple-A appearances in the Yankees organization earlier this year. He hit .221 with a pair of home runs. Hernández now carries a .264/.324/.453 slash line in nearly 1200 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He has been called to the majors twice (both by the Red Sox in 2022) but hasn’t made it into a game.

Carlos Narváez and Connor Wong are Boston’s only catchers on the 40-man roster. The Sox traded depth catcher Blake Sabol to the White Sox over the weekend. Hernández backfills alongside defensive specialist Seby Zavala in Worcester. Zavala would probably be the first man up if either Narváez or Wong sustain an injury.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR’s new team-by-team deadline preview series continues with a look at the Tigers. Detroit entered the season as fringe contenders, but have emerged as the clear best team in the American League and possess MLB's best record overall coming out of the All-Star break. That's been thanks to some surprise breakout performances, as well as the club's top stars playing as expected. The Tigers are one of the most obvious buyers in the sport this trade season, though with a well-balanced roster there are few glaring holes they're desperate to upgrade.

Record: 59-38 (99.0% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infield, center field, starting pitching, bullpen help

The Tigers have a well-constructed team without many needs they absolutely must upgrade. With that being said, there's at least some room for improvement virtually everywhere on the roster. A roster full of versatile position players who can be moved around as needed means that the Tigers can afford to be creative in upgrading their lineup this summer, and for a team with an above-average but not necessarily outstanding offense that figures to be a good place to start. Players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry are capable of playing virtually all over the diamond as needed, and while others like Colt Keith and Matt Vierling aren't quite as versatile, they can at least move around a handful of positions to give Detroit some further flexibility.

As presently constructed, the clearest hole in the Tigers' lineup appears to be center field. The combination of Parker Meadows and Vierling simply hasn't gotten it done this year. Both spent time on the injured list early in the season but now sport wRC+ marks of 55 and 50 respectively, although both of those figures come in fairly small sample sizes. That's especially true of Vierling, who has been healthy enough to get into just 13 games this season. Perhaps the Tigers could bet on the pair to find the form they flashed last year if given enough runway, but both hitters have options remaining and the club will surely be looking to maximize this opportunity given the dwindling team control of Tarik Skubal.

Cedric Mullins is a rental who could be available and would raise the floor for the Tigers in the outfield, with a 101 wRC+ this year and at least passable defense (though his bat has gone cold after a huge April). Mullins typically does his best work against right-handed pitching with a 115 wRC+ for his career and below-average numbers against fellow lefties, but this season he's actually posted reverse splits with a 140 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances against southpaws as compared to an 86 wRC+ against righties in a larger sample. Perhaps the Tigers would be willing to offer him everyday reps in the outfield, but even in some sort of timeshare with Baez, Meadows, and Vierling, Mullins would be an upgrade for a weak spot in the club's lineup.

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Kyle Gibson Announces Retirement

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After parts of 13 seasons in the big leagues, Kyle Gibson is retiring. The longtime MLB starter announced the news on the Serving It Up show this afternoon.

Gibson, 37, has been a free agent since he opted out of a minor league contract with the Rays last month. The veteran righty had pitched very well over four Triple-A starts, but Tampa Bay did not have room in their big league rotation. Gibson said today that he hoped his Triple-A numbers would lead to an immediate MLB opportunity. When that didn’t materialize, he decided to retire. He implied that he received a major league offer a couple weeks later but he and his wife Elizabeth were happy with his decision by that point.

“It has been a lot of fun to be around the family a lot more. … That’s where I ended up a couple weeks ago when it turned out that I wasn’t going to get the opportunity that I was looking for,” Gibson added. “It has been exciting being home and turning the page to a new chapter. I’ve taken the last couple weeks to call and text people who I really wanted to let know (the news) in person. I’m going to take the next few days and try to write something up to properly thank everybody that needs to be thanked for the last 15, 16 years in professional baseball.”

Gibson’s pro career began when he was selected by the Twins in the first round in 2009. A 2011 Tommy John surgery prevented him from making his big league debut until 2013. Gibson made 31 starts the following year, the beginning of his lengthy run as an innings eater. He made at least 25 starts in all six full seasons in Minnesota. Gibson posted a pair of sub-4.00 ERA showings and has his best year in 2018. He turned in a 3.62 earned run average while setting career marks in innings (196 2/3) and strikeouts (179).

A first-time free agent after the 2019 season, Gibson joined the Rangers on a three-year deal that guaranteed $28MM. He struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign but got out to a fantastic first few months a year later. Gibson reeled off a 2.87 ERA in his first 19 starts to earn an All-Star selection. The Rangers were out of contention, so they shipped him alongside Ian Kennedy to the Phillies at the deadline. Gibson spent a season and a half at the back of the Philadelphia rotation. He posted a 5.06 ERA in 43 regular season appearances and was part of the NL’s pennant winning club in 2022. Gibson made one appearance in the Fall Classic, tossing a scoreless inning.

That marked the end of the three-year deal. Gibson would finish his career on a series of one-year contracts. He signed with the Orioles in 2023, posting a 4.73 ERA over 33 starts. He won a career-high 15 games that year and led the 101-win club with 192 innings. A Midwest native who attended the University of Missouri, Gibson chose to pitch close to home in 2024. He signed a $13MM contract with the Cardinals and remained a steady hand at the back of the rotation. He worked to a 4.24 ERA while reaching 30 starts for the fourth consecutive season.

Gibson’s final trip to free agency was not as fruitful. He remained unsigned well into Spring Training. Gibson finally returned to Baltimore on a $5.25MM contract with less than a week until Opening Day. He agreed to spend the first couple weeks of the season building up in Triple-A. The O’s brought him up at the end of April, but opponents teed off for 23 runs across 12 1/3 innings. Baltimore released him after just four MLB starts. That’d prove to be the final work of his big league career, though his professional run concluded with three consecutive scoreless starts for Tampa Bay’s Triple-A club before he triggered the opt-out clause.

Aside from this year’s extremely small sample, Gibson was a consistent and remarkably durable starter. While he never reached the 200-inning mark, he thrice got past 190 frames. Gibson topped 150 innings nine times and had a grand total of three injured list stints in his MLB career. A 2016 shoulder strain was the only injury that cost him more than a month after he reached the big leagues.

Over the 11-year stretch between 2014-24, only Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole topped Gibson’s 1814 2/3 innings. He started 314 games during that time, 16 more than anyone else. Gibson finishes his career with a 4.60 ERA in 1878 frames. He topped 1500 strikeouts and won 112 games. Baseball Reference credited him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while FanGraphs valued him at 21 WAR. Gibson made 30+ starts for five different teams and earned a little more than $73MM in salary, according to B-Ref. Congratulations to Gibson on an excellent run and all the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement, Imagn Images.

Corbin Martin Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced Thursday that right-hander Corbin Martin, whom they designated for assignment this past Sunday, has cleared waivers and rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. He’s now a free agent.

The 29-year-old Martin appeared in one game for the O’s — his first time on a big league mound since the 2022 season with the D-backs. The former second-round pick was one of four players traded by the Astros to Arizona in 2019’s Zack Greinke trade. Martin was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time of that trade and was ultimately unable to establish himself with the Diamondbacks. He’s pitched 57 2/3 innings in the big leagues to this point in his career (including his quick look with the O’s) and carries a 6.56 ERA, a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 13.4% walk rate.

The Orioles claimed Martin off waivers from the Brewers last June. He’s pitched 32 1/3 innings with a 5.29 ERA in Triple-A Norfolk this year. That includes a strong run from May 30 to the time of his call to the majors, during which he rattled off 12 innings of one-run ball with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio. Overall, Martin has set down 23% of his opponents on strikes against a 10.4% walk rate. In parts of five Triple-A seasons, Martin has a 5.18 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate in a total of 217 1/3 innings.

Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re one of several clubs in the running for the 29-year-old righty, who’s signed for three additional years beyond the current season. Both the Mets and Cubs have been tied to Keller in recent weeks. Hiles adds that the Cubs currently view Keller more of a backup option in their rotation search, while the Mets are “very” interested.

Interest in Keller is only natural for the Yankees, who’ll be prominent players in the starting pitching market over the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman acknowledged as much recently when indicating that pitching will be his top priority this summer. New York lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery before the season even began. Clarke Schmidt met the same fate earlier this month. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil still hasn’t pitched this season due to a lat strain. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough has also been out nearly a month due to an oblique strain.

At the moment, the Yankees have Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in the rotation. The hope is that Gil, who’s already on a minor league rehab assignment, can strengthen that group soon. In theory, Yarbrough shouldn’t be far behind, but he’s yet to begin a rehab stint. That assumes no setbacks and a return to pre-injury form though — neither of which is a guarantee.

Keller has started 20 games for Pittsburgh and boasts a 3.48 ERA. He’s punched out 18.7% of his opponents and turned in a career-low 5.5% walk rate. Keller has been on a particularly strong run of late, pitching into the sixth inning or later in 13 consecutive starts and compiling a 3.04 ERA over 80 innings in that time. Ten of those appearances have been quality starts. Dating back to 2022, Keller is tied for the seventh-most starts (112) and tenth-most innings (650 1/3) in all of Major League Baseball.

Bringing Keller into the fold would make sense both to help this season and to provide some future stability. Stroman is a free agent at season’s end. Neither Warren nor Schlittler has cemented himself as a long-term rotation cog yet. Cole’s rehab will probably extend beyond Opening Day next year. Schmidt, given the timing of his surgery, won’t make it back to the mound until at least late next year — possibly not until 2027.

Keller would add durability to that group and create the possibility of a very strong midseason rotation next year. Health for all parties can’t necessarily be assumed, but there’d be a real chance that by June or so, the Yankees could deploy a rotation including Cole, Fried, Rodon, Keller and Gil, with Warren and Schlittler as the sixth and seventh arms on the depth chart. That sort of depth would rank among the best in baseball.

There are other factors to consider. Keller is midway through the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. He’s being paid $15MM in 2025 and will earn salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM over the next three seasons. That’s fine value for a mid-rotation arm of Keller’s caliber — particularly if you believe there’s still a bit of untapped upside in the former second-round pick and top prospect — but the Yankees would be on the hook for a good bit more than that due to their luxury tax status.

As of this writing, Keller has about $5.89MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. Add that to his future salaries and he’s still owed about $60.39MM over the next three-plus seasons. The Yankees would be taxed at a 110% clip on the roughly $17.8MM annual value of that remainder — assuming they remain in the top tier of luxury penalization moving forward, which seems like a good bet.

RosterResource projects the Yankees with about $187MM of luxury obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Fernando Cruz, Schmidt and Gil. Keller would add another $17.8MM to that number, and the Yankees will be in the market for help at third base, center field and in the bullpen this winter (depending on their trade deadline activity, of course). Each of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a free agent in a few months. Even if the Yankees were able to drop down into only the third tier of penalization, they’d still pay a 90% tax on Keller’s remaining annual value.

If the Pirates do move Keller, they’ll presumably be most motivated by MLB-ready position players. Pittsburgh is deep in intriguing young arms (and just added another, Seth Hernandez, with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft) but hasn’t had much success in terms of developing young hitters. That’s not to say they’d have no interest in further stockpiling young pitching, but their aim over the next couple weeks is surely to add at least a few young hitters of note to help bolster a stagnant offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage.

Poll: Which Team Should Be Most Aggressive For Eugenio Suarez?

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After entering the season with big expectations, the Diamondbacks have been dogged by injuries throughout the year and seen key players like Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt perform below expectations. It’s left them with a 47-50 record headed into the second half, and while the front office has not yet outright declared themselves sellers, they seemingly haven’t closed the door on the idea either.

Arizona has a number of intriguing rentals they could dangle this summer to contending clubs, but perhaps the best of them all is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The 33-year-old is in the midst of what figures to be a career year and has already clubbed 31 homers in just 95 games. As the best bat available this summer, he should attract plenty of attention. For which teams would he make the most sense? A look at some of the top options:

New York Yankees

The Yankees entered 2025 without a solid plan for the infield, and their situation has only gotten more dire. Oswaldo Cabrera suffered an ankle injury that’s left him unlikely to return to the field this year, and the club recently cut ties with DJ LeMahieu in order to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base. That leaves New York to rely on Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas at the hot corner, a combination that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Suárez would be the perfect addition to a Yankees lineup that has too often relied on Aaron Judge to carry the load of producing on a regular basis by himself, and Suárez’s righty bat would help to balance a lineup dominated by lefties like Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Austin Wells. As tempting as Suárez may be, however, injuries to players like Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt leave the rotation perhaps even more in need of reinforcements than the lineup. The Yankees would also pay a 110% tax on what’s left of Suárez’s $15MM salary ($5.89MM as of this writing).

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have had a strong year so far and entered the All-Star break in first place thanks primarily to their star-studded offense. Shoring up a patchwork rotation should be the top priority for this team, but Chicago does have one of the worst third base situations in the majors. Matt Shaw entered this year as a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport and may well still be the team’s long-term solution at the hot corner, but his 61 wRC+ won’t cut it on a contender. Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan have been no better offensively, so any upgrade at third would need to be external. There aren’t many teams for whom Suárez would represent a more substantial upgrade over their internal options, and adding him to the middle of the Cubs’ order to push players like Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ down the lineup would make one of the league’s best offenses even more potent.

Milwaukee Brewers

Nipping at Chicago’s heels in the NL Central race, the Brewers sit just one game back after playing extremely well the past few weeks. With Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski set to front the rotation and several solid back-end options, the Brewers appear to be the rare contender mostly set on the pitching front. Where they could use upgrades is on offense — particularly on the left side of the infield. Caleb Durbin has done a solid enough job at third base, but with Joey Ortiz struggling at shortstop and no obviously impactful trade candidates at that position, perhaps adding Suárez could bolster the lineup while allowing the Brewers to occasionally shift Durbin to second base and Brice Turang to shortstop. While the position fit is perhaps imperfect, Suárez would help transform the middle of a Milwaukee lineup that has seriously missed the contributions of Willy Adames this year. It’s fair to wonder whether Suárez fits the within the budget, however.

Seattle Mariners

Perhaps the best fit for Suárez would be a homecoming of sorts. The Mariners have long needed help on offense to complement their cache of young pitching talent, and this year is no different. Rookie Ben Williamson is handling the hot corner on a regular basis as things stand and playing good defense with minimal offense (.259/.294/.321, 79 wRC+).

Bringing Suárez back into the fold would transform the lineup, giving the team a second bona fide slugger alongside Cal Raleigh who could form a strong offensive nucleus with Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez. The Mariners traded Suárez to the D-backs in the first place following the 2023 season — a move necessitated by an ownership mandate to reduce payroll. There is interest in a reunion, but would Seattle submit the top bid to reacquire a rental player they traded 21 months ago when other more surefire postseason clubs are in the bidding?

Other Options

The four clubs mentioned above are arguably the strongest fit for Suárez’s services, but they’re far from the only realistic options. The Reds would represent another homecoming for Suárez and have one of the worst third base situations in the majors at the moment. The Tigers — Suárez’s original organization — have gotten solid production from All-Stars Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez at the hot corner, but both are versatile and Suárez would add some more thump to a win-now lineup. The Blue Jays have a solid offense and are enjoying a breakout season from Addison Barger at third base, but he could just as easily be moved to right field to clear the deck for Suárez. The Mets have moved Mark Vientos off third base amid a difficult season, and Suárez would be a clear upgrade over Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty on the infield.

Suárez’s elite power and ability to play a solid third base make him an attractive target for any club hoping to add a little thump to the lineup. Which team should push hardest to acquire him? Have your say in the poll below:

Rays Select Joey Gerber

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1:35pm: Gerber indeed had an upward mobility clause in his contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That provision forces the Rays to either grant Gerber his release or add him to the 40-man roster if there’s another team willing to sign him to its own 40-man roster. Gerber seemingly had interest from another team, then, and forced the issue with the Rays.

1:15pm: The Rays have selected the contract of right-hander Joey Gerber and transferred fellow righty Hunter Bigge from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to clear space on the 40-man roster, per a team announcement. Gerber was immediately optioned back to Triple-A Durham, where he’d previously been pitching.

An addition to the 40-man and immediate option back to the minors — the A’s made the same move with outfielder Carlos Cortes yesterday — likely indicates that Gerber’s minor league contract contained a mid-July opt-out clause. Such provisions are common at the season’s midpoint and typically give the team 24 to 48 hours to decide whether to add the player to the 40-man roster or grant him his release.

Gerber, 28, made a brief major league debut with the 2020 Mariners — the team that originally drafted him in the eighth round back in 2018. He pitched 15 2/3 innings and logged a 4.02 ERA but with a dismal 9.7% strikeout rate against a solid 8.1% walk rate.

Gerber’s minor league run-prevention and strikeout numbers were excellent and would likely have gotten him a look in subsequent seasons had he remained healthy. That wasn’t the case. He missed all of 2021 following back surgery and pitched just one inning in 2022 due to a forearm strain that eventually resulted in Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire 2023 campaign as well.

After a nearly three-year layoff from pitching, Gerber signed a minor league deal with the Yankees for the 2024 season. He pitched 33 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball across four levels, fanning 28.2% of his opponents and issuing walks at a 12.2% rate. He didn’t get a call to the majors and wound up becoming a minor league free agent, ultimately signing with Tampa Bay in mid-December.

Gerber’s earned run average is up to 4.73 with the Rays in 2025, but his strikeout and walks numbers are better than they were in the Yankees’ system. He’s punched out a comparable 28.6% of his opponents but trimmed his walk rate to a much leaner 8.9% mark. The 93.8 mph Gerber is averaging on his four-seamer in 2025 is actually a half-mile improvement over the 93.3 mph he averaged during his brief debut effort with the 2020 Mariners.

This is the second of Gerber’s three option years. Now that he’s on the 40-man roster, he can be shuttled freely between the Rays’ major league club and Triple-A Durham affiliate both this year and next. He’ll be in the mix the next time the Rays need a fresh arm and could be an option to claim a larger role depending on what happens at the trade deadline.

Tampa Bay is three games over .500 and 1.5 back from a Wild Card spot. They’re generally expected to operate primarily on the buy side, but they rode a four-game losing streak into the All-Star break and are generally open to listen on veterans even during contending seasons. A trade of an impending free agent like starter Zack Littell, for instance, could push a current bullpen member like Ian Seymour or Joe Boyle into the rotation. Ace Shane McClanahan is on the mend from a triceps injury and could step into any rotation vacancy that opens up, but further injuries and/or a trade of a veteran reliever with dwindling club control (e.g. Pete Fairbanks, Garrett Cleavinger) could lead to additional opportunities for Gerber and other depth arms.

The 27-year-old Bigge’s move to the 60-day IL is a formality. He’s been out since May 1 due to a lat strain and has thus already spent more than 60 days on the injured list. He’s pitched to a 2.51 ERA in 32 1/3 MLB frames between the Cubs and Rays since making his debut with Chicago last year and being traded to Tampa Bay at the 2024 deadline. He resumed baseball activity late last month and will continue to work toward a late-season return.

Orioles Have Listened To Offers On Trevor Rogers, Felix Bautista

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The Orioles have been at least listening to offers on both left-hander Trevor Rogers and closer Felix Bautista, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. A trade of either player is considered unlikely, though. Both are controlled beyond the 2025 season. Rogers is arbitration-eligible through 2026. Bautista is arb-eligible through 2027. SNY’s Andy Martino reported last week that rival clubs who’ve talked to the Orioles don’t expect Bautista to be moved.

That Rogers would even have appeal as anything more than a pure sell-low candidate is a welcome development for the Orioles. The former Rookie of the Year runner-up pitched poorly enough following last year’s acquisition from Miami that he was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk. Rogers then suffered a subluxation of his knee in January and opened the season with a six-week stay on the injured list. He was optioned again once ready for reinstatement and posted a 5.51 ERA in 32 2/3 minor league frames.

Rogers was still recalled out of necessity on May 24, and he’s been an unexpected boon to a struggling Baltimore rotation. The 27-year-old southpaw has made six starts since that recall and turned in a pristine 1.53 earned run average. His 93.5 mph average fastball isn’t quite back up to the 94.6 mph peak he enjoyed before a series of back, lat and biceps injuries, but it’s up considerably from last season’s 91.6 mph average.

There are reasons to be quite skeptical of Rogers’ success, however. He’s sitting on a .200 average on balls in play despite yielding an ugly 50.5% hard-hit rate in the majors this year. Only one of the 33 fly-balls he’s allowed has become a home run (3%) — far lower than his 10.2% career mark and 2025’s 11.4% league average. Similarly, his 84% strand rate trounces the 72.7% league average and Rogers’ own career mark of 71%. There’s some very likely regression in store in all those areas, though a 3.71 SIERA suggests that Rogers has still been a genuinely improved pitcher this season.

On the one hand, the Orioles need long-term help in the rotation. Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are free agents at season’s end. Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched this season due to triceps and elbow troubles. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are both on the mend from UCL surgery. They’re expected back later this summer, but it’s hardly a given that they’ll recapture their pre-injury form. Former top prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott have both struggled in 2025 —  the former in the majors and the latter in Triple-A. Povich is currently on the shelf due to a hip injury.

On the other hand, Rogers is only controlled one more season and clearly saw his stock plummet in his first six months with the club. If he’s rebuilt some trade value, there’s an argument to be made for capitalizing on it and bringing back some more controllable talent. Even six weeks ago, the idea of Rogers having trade value of note would’ve seemed far-fetched. He’s certainly not as good as his sub-2.00 ERA would suggest, but on a thin market for pitching, his restored velocity and improved results could hold interest — particularly given that extra season of control and a very affordable $2.6MM salary.

Turning to Bautista, a trade of the former All-Star closer seems far less likely. The asking price, certainly, would be considerably higher. The electric 30-year-old righty is earning just $1MM this season and has two arbitration years remaining. He’s returned from late-2023 Tommy John surgery to pitch 33 2/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball and collect 18 saves. Bautista’s 35.6% strikeout rate isn’t close to the superhuman 46.4% mark he recorded in 2023 but is excellent nevertheless. His 14.8% walk rate is also fairly alarming.

That said, both Bautista’s strikeout and walk rates are trending in the right direction. Dating back to the beginning of June, he’s fanned 44.4% of his opponents against an 11.1% walk rate — near-mirror images of his 2023 levels. Bautista is now favoring a new 97.5 mph sinker over the 99.3 mph four-seamer he used as his primary offering in ’23. The velocity isn’t as strong, but he’s seen his grounder rate climb from 35.7% to a hearty 50.7%.

Bautista is an elite relief arm with several metrics trending in the right direction and multiple years of affordable club control. That’s the sort of asset that every contending club would want. His affordable salary both makes him more plausible for budget-conscious contenders and carries extra appeal for the top luxury-paying clubs that don’t want to pay a 110% tax on a pricey reliever’s average annual salary.

The general consensus around the Orioles is that they’re unlikely to move anyone who’s controlled beyond the current season. The O’s have played better baseball since a dreadful start to the season but look to have dug too deep a hole to climb back into contention in the next two weeks. They’re nine games under .500 — 11.5 back from the division lead and 7.5 back of a Wild Card spot (with seven teams to leapfrog). They open the second half with a a seven-game road trip (three in Tampa and four in Cleveland) and have played at a 21-27 clip on the road (.437) versus a 22-25 clip at home (.468).

It’s far likelier that veterans like Morton, Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto — all free agents at season’s end — change hands. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Rogers suddenly felt a bit like found money and GM Mike Elias looked to capitalize. A trade of Bautista would come as a shock, but it’s at least of some modest note that the Baltimore front office is willing to hear out interested clubs and give them a chance to put forth an overwhelming offer.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Red Sox. There has been a lot of drama in Boston this year and it hasn't always been smooth sailing. However, a ten-game win streak just before the break has catapulted them into buyer position. The question now is how aggressive they will be in adding to the club ahead of the deadline. With a glut of outfielders, would they be willing to use that surplus to bolster another area of the roster?

Record: 53-45 (55.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: pitching, first base, backup catcher

The Sox have one elite pillar in their rotation, but it's questionable after that. Even that pillar comes with some degree of uncertainty. Garrett Crochet leads the club in starts and innings pitched, by a healthy margin in both cases. He has a 2.23 earned run average over 129 1/3 innings pitched.

Can he keep it up the rest of the way? In the early parts of his career, he was either hurt or working as a reliever. A move to the rotation last year worked out brilliantly, though the White Sox backed off his workload in the second half. He had 101 1/3 innings pitched through the end of June but then just 44 2/3 innings the rest of the way, finishing at 146 frames. Whether he can get that into the 200 range and still be effective in the postseason is something of an open question.

Even with Boston counting on Crochet to fill one playoff rotation spot, they would need more. Are Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello viable candidates? Giolito has been trending in a positive direction lately. He missed all of 2024 due to elbow surgery and then a hamstring strain put him on the shelf for the first month of 2025. Through his first seven starts, he had a 6.42 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. In his most recent six outings: 0.70 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

The Sox will have to decide if that's small sample noise or Giolito getting on track after years of struggles. From 2019 to 2021, he posted a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate. But over 2022 and 2023, he had a 4.89 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. It would be great if he's back to his old self, but six starts is still a pretty small sample size.

It's a somewhat similar situation for Bello, who missed the first few weeks of the season due to a shoulder strain. Through eight starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 16.1% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate. But in his seven most recent appearances, he has a 2.61 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate.

The options beyond those three are not inspiring. Walker Buehler has a 6.12 ERA on the year. Tanner Houck had an 8.04 ERA before a flexor pronator strain sent him to the injured list. Richard Fitts has some passable numbers but just 12 big league starts under his belt. Hunter Dobbins and Kutter Crawford are done for the year. Kyle Harrison isn't doing especially well in the minors. Patrick Sandoval could be a factor later in the season, but he's still a question mark for now. He had UCL surgery just over a year ago and has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

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Cardinals Sign First-Round Pick Liam Doyle

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10:00am: Doyle agreed to a $7.25MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com.

9:25am: The Cardinals announced Thursday that they’ve signed first-round pick Liam Doyle. The team did not disclose bonus terms. The fifth overall pick comes with an approximate $8.13MM slot value.

A left-hander from the University of Tennessee, Doyle was the third pitcher off the board on Sunday. The Cardinals were picking in the top five for the first time in almost three decades. Doyle became their highest-drafted player since J.D. Drew also went fifth in 1998. The organization’s most recent pitcher selected in the top five was Braden Looper, who went third overall in ’96.

Doyle struggled over his first two college seasons, which he divided between Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss. Things clicked for him during his junior year in Knoxville, as he turned in a 3.20 ERA across 95 2/3 innings in the nation’s best conference. The 6’2″ southpaw struck out 43% of opposing hitters. He recorded 164 punchouts overall. Only LSU lefty Kade Anderson, whom the Mariners selected with the third pick, had more strikeouts in the nation.

Keith Law of The Athletic ranked Doyle as the top pitcher in the class and the #2 overall prospect on his pre-draft board. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN all had Doyle in the back half of their top 10. Evaluators all rave about the velocity and life on his upper-90s fastball, which dominated collegiate hitters. Some reports raised concern about the frequency with which he used the heater and/or his delivery, but most project him for at least average control. Law put a plus grade on his splitter and credited him with an above-average slider, projecting him as a potential #2 starter so long as the command continues to develop.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if we see Doyle in the big leagues by the end of the 2026 season. Five of last year’s top 14 selections — each from the college ranks — have already reached the majors. Doyle joins a farm system that includes Quinn Mathews, Tekoah Roby, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence in the pitching pipeline. Twenty-five-year-old Matthew Liberatore is amidst an impressive season at the MLB level and looks to be breaking out as a long-term rotation fixture as well.

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