Tigers’ GM Avila On Cabrera, Prospect Timelines
The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera received some tough news recently when four different medical opinions agreed that the future Hall of Famer is dealing with “chronic changes” in his knee that will impact the remainder of his career. The immediate ramifications of that diagnosis brought about a position change for Cabrera, who is now relegated to DH duty on a full-time basis and won’t be seeing any action at first base for the foreseeable future. As detailed at the time, Cabrera is owed more than $150MM through the end of the 2023 campaign on a contract that looks to be more onerous than ever before.
General manager Al Avila met with reporters Thursday to discuss the situation (all links to Twitter via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). “The bad news is that it’s going to get worse as it goes along,” said Avila of Cabrera’s knee condition. “It’s incumbent on him to stay in good shape and it’s incumbent on us to make sure we get him the proper treatment and proper rest.” If both sides are able to hold up their end of the bargain, Avila added, the organization is confident it can “keep [Cabrera] productive on the field through the remainder of his contract.”
That’d be a tall order even for a fully healthy Cabrera (or any player signed into his age-40 season). This version of Cabrera, though, is not only dealing with the recently revealed knee issue but also multiple herniated disks in his back and the perhaps lingering effects of last season’s surgery to repair a torn biceps tendon. The 36-year-old surely enjoyed proving some doubters wrong for a night when he ripped a grand slam just hours after the extent of his knee troubles became public knowledge Tuesday. His overall line of .287/.357/.376, however, illustrates the manner in which his power has yet to materialize in 2019.
Given that substantial commitment to Cabrera for another four years beyond the current campaign, it’ll be all the more imperative for the Tigers organization to produce cost-efficient young talent. To that end, Avila discussed a number of intriguing young prospects Thursday, touching on the timelines of infield prospect Willi Castro and several of the club’s top-ranked pitching prospects.
Castro, a shortstop, is hitting .335/.413/.505 through 232 plate appearances in Triple-A while the Tigers’ entire infield flounders at the plate in the Majors. However, Castro has also committed 10 errors in just 44 starts at short (398 1/3 innings) after making only 15 errors in all of 2018. Scouting reports agree that he’ll eventually be a solid defender at the position, but it seems that consistency has eluded him. For a player who just turned 22, that’s not necessarily a shock. It’s worth wondering whether he’ll get a look later this month, as we’re right around the period of time at which teams can begin promoting players without worrying about Super Two status.
As for the pitchers, Avila suggested that although right-handers Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser have struggled, if they can return to “doing what they’re capable of doing,” they’ll likely get a look in the Majors later in the 2019 season. Tigers fans, though, are surely more interested in getting a look at last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Casey Mize. The former Auburn standout is among the game’s top 10 pitching prospects and has decimated minor league lineups in 2019, pitching to a comical 0.83 ERA with a 65-to-10 K/BB in 70 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.
However, Avila wasn’t shy about the fact that promoting Mize in the near future isn’t all that likely. While the GM didn’t expressly rule out a promotion at some point in 2019, he plainly stated that there’s “no purpose” in promoting Mize to the Majors right now, citing a wariness of undoing some of the progress he’s made thus far. Perhaps if the Tigers were postseason contenders with a pressing rotation need, there’d be more urgency, but Avila was candid in his assessment of his big league roster as well. “Quite frankly it’s not going to make us into playoff contenders this year,” he said of a near-term promotion for Mize.
David Phelps Begins Rehab Appearance
Blue Jays reliever David Phelps formally launched his rehab assignment yesterday, as Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports notes on Twitter. Phelps recorded an inning of action at the High-A level.
With that news, we now have a good idea when Phelps could be back in action at the major league level. Pitchers may work on rehab assignments for up to thirty days. Those recovering from Tommy John surgery, as is Phelps, can have their assignments extended by ten days up to three times.
The hope, surely, will be that Phelps can return before the month of June is out. As a veteran relief pitcher, he’ll be handled differently than a youthful starter. While the Jays and Phelps have every incentive to exercise reasonable caution, both have an interest in seeing him on a MLB mound as soon as possible.
For the Toronto organization, Phelps represented a calculated gamble on a $2.5MM guarantee. If he’s able to return to his once-excellent form, Phelps could be utilized as a mid-2019 trade chip or kept for the 2020 campaign via club option.
On the pitcher’s side of the equation, his earnings are tied directly to his MLB activity levels. Phelps stands to earn $250K apiece upon making his 25th, 30th, and 35th appearances, with $350K apiece at numbers 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. There are also bonuses for games finished. Plus, the option’s base rate of $1MM can rise to $3MM (if he reaches 30 games), $5MM (at 40 games), $7MM (50 games), or even $8MM (in the rather unlikely event he appears in fifty and finishes forty games).
Phelps had been a useful but hardly outstanding MLB starter before finding another gear in a relief role. Since the start of the 2016 season, he carries a 2.72 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 142 1/3 innings.
Rays Were Reportedly Runners Up For Craig Kimbrel
While their offer wasn’t enough to get a deal done, the Rays evidently made a real effort to secure the services of veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the typically tight-fisted Tampa Bay organization was the runner-up in the bidding. (Subscription link.)
Kimbrel’s deal with the Cubs, which still isn’t official, goes for a reported three years and $43MM. He could instead have taken down $39MM from the Rays on a similar structure or instead gone for a two-year, $31MM offer from the Tampa Bay outfit.
Even though the ship has sailed on Kimbrel, this is certainly an interesting bit of information. The Rays obviously feel they can take on a rather significant additional salary this year and in the near future. Perhaps the star closer was something of a unique case, but it stands to reason that the club will also consider other opportunities at or approaching this price point.
Whether or not it takes money to make a move, it also seems the Rays can be counted on as a buyer of relief pitching at the deadline. That’s hardly a surprise, generally; the Rays are right in the thick of things in the AL East. Their relief unit has been good but could certainly stand to be improved. Plus, only one member of the current staff has more than three years of MLB service. In light of the aggressive stance on Kimbrel, the Rays now seem a favorite to put their well-stocked farm system to use in trade talks this summer.
D-Backs, Mariners Nearly Struck Trade Involving Mike Leake
Details remain sparse, but it seems the Diamondbacks and Mariners nearly lined up on a trade involving veteran Seattle right-hander Mike Leake. According to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, the teams “worked to finalize” the swap as late as Tuesday evening.
Clearly, talks fell through since Leake ended up on the bump. He says that he never caught wind of the possible deal, which certainly is notable given that he possesses full no-trade protection. Leake added that he’s willing to consider approving a deal in the right circumstances.
It seems quite likely Leake will at some point have an opportunity to consider approving a move. With the Mariners trying to move more veteran assets after already shipping out Jay Bruce, it’s not surprising to hear that the club went down the line on a swap involving the expensive pitcher.
Leake, 31, has managed to deliver 81 2/3 innings of 4.30 ERA ball this year despite some worrying peripherals. He has averaged 6.2 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 but has already surrendered 18 home runs. That said, Leake’s start last night was awfully impressive. He worked a 119-pitch complete game while allowing just one earned run.
While the Diamondbacks are obviously interested in adding Leake or another veteran starter to bolster their staff, it’s hard to imagine they’d take on anything close to his remaining contract. Leake is earning $16MM this year, $15MM in 2020, and a $5MM buyout for a 2021 mutual option. The Cardinals are on the hook for $5MM this year and $4MM next, but it’s still a hefty commitment. It’s not clear whether the Arizona organization remains a potential landing spot for Leake.
Draft Signings: 6/6/19
We’ll track the latest draft signings of note in this post …
- Giants 11th-rounder Trevor McDonald says he’s preparing to put pen to paper on a pro contract, as Patrick Clay of WLOX.com reports. Precise details aren’t known, but McDonald says he decided to forego his commitment to South Alabama after securing what he calls “a great overpay deal.” (That characterization was obviously intended to refer to his draft position, not to cast doubt upon the team’s decisionmaking.) 11th-round selections are always worthy of some added attention, as they offer the first chance for teams to take a shot at tough-sign players without worry of losing draft pool money. For players taken outside of the first ten rounds, any bonus amount over $125K counts against the pool money. Teams can utilize cost savings from earlier picks to free up some extra cash. McDonald, a Mississippi high-schooler who ranked 151st on Baseball America’s board, becomes the first early San Francisco selection to reportedly agree to terms.
Indians Sign Mitch Talbot
The Indians have added right-hander Mitch Talbot on a minors deal. The Cleveland organization acquired his contract from the indy ball Sugar Land Skeeters and assigned him to Triple-A.
Talbot spent time with the Columbus Clippers last year after four seasons away from the affiliated ranks. He threw well in 17 starts and one relief appearance. Over 103 2/3 frames, Talbot ran up a 2.52 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
With the Indians needing to backfill depth after losing another top starter in Carlos Carrasco, it’s not surprising to see them turn to the former second-round pick. Talbot, 35, is well known to the Indians from his first run with the organization back in 2010-11, during which he made forty starts. He owns a lifetime 5.30 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 232 2/3 total MLB innings.
Replacing Andrew McCutchen
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East. So far, so good. But the club is looking ahead at some rather significant road blocks.
Most notably, the Philadelphia outfield mix just took a big hit. Andrew McCutchen is done for the year. The less-hyped and less-expensive of the team’s two major free agent splashes, Cutch had also outperformed Bryce Harper to this point.
Let’s not forget: the Phillies aren’t just replacing McCutchen. They may also be in need of a player to step in for Odubel Herrera, whose future with the organization is in doubt after his recent arrest for alleged domestic violence. Aaron Altherr was already sent out after a rough start. Nick Williams has struggled mightily. Roman Quinn is again injured, while Dylan Cozens is sidelined for the season. Scott Kingery is showing well, but he’s an infielder by trade and is needed there with Maikel Franco struggling. Recently, Kingery taken over the majority of the workload at third base.
The Phillies, as one would expect from a first-place club in a tightly contested division, have acted quickly since losing Herrera and McCutchen. Jay Bruce was brought in and now figures to line in left field on a regular basis. Bruce just ripped his third home run in as many games since landing in Philadelphia, so he’s off to a good start. But he’ll also likely be pressed into a much more substantial role than had been envisioned.
Philadelphia also promoted prospect Adam Haseley, the eighth overall pick in 2017, and he’ll step into center field for the time being. Haseley had only been in Triple-A for a week when he was summoned to the Majors, though, and he’s not regarded as a premium prospect despite that draft pedigree. He’s a a logical first option, and perhaps he’ll surprise to the extent that the Phils don’t need to make a splashy trade, but there’s still a definite chance that the sudden outfield deficiency will be addressed by acquiring someone from outside the organization.
What the Phillies could really use in place of McCutchen is a true center fielder. McCutchen hasn’t been that in several years but was playing there in place of Herrera — who turned in shaky defensive ratings in center himself in 2018-19. Unfortunately, that’ll be considerably more difficult to come by for GM Matt Klentak.
The most readily available players are of dubious quality, unsurprisingly. Kevin Pillar could surely be had from the Giants, but a player sporting a .249 OBP on the season isn’t going to be viewed as an upgrade. It’s a similar story with Billy Hamilton in Kansas City and Juan Lagares in New York. The Padres have a well-known glut of outfielders, most of who are limited to corner duties as well. Perhaps the Phillies could try to buy low on one-time top prospect Manuel Margot, but he’s sporting a .262 OBP and has lost playing time to makeshift center fielder Wil Myers. Myers himself would figure to be eminently available, but he’s still owed $61MM beyond the 2019 campaign and wouldn’t be a quality defensive option. Buy-low options abound throughout the league. Beyond the aforementioned Pillar, the Phillies could acquire Leonys Martin on the cheap in hope of a return to form. The Orioles only just acquired Keon Broxton themselves, but the Phils could try to take a shot on him.
The best of this class of player may be Jarrod Dyson. Perhaps the D-Backs will be willing to ship him elsewhere later this summer. He’s a career-long platoon bat with minimal power but would at least give the Phils dynamic glovework and competitive at-bats against right-handed pitching. But the team would still arguably be down a righty outfield bat.
Adding a higher-end piece in center would surely be costly, though it’s worth exploring since it’s a long-term need for the organization. The Phils could try to pry Ketel Marte away from Arizona, but the asking price would be substantial. The versatile switch-hitter has taken well to center field and is also capable of playing all over the infield; he’s also controllable all the way through 2024 for a total of about $35MM. Starling Marte isn’t off to his finest start, but the cross-state rival Pirates likely won’t reduce their asking price. Perhaps there’s some room for a deal — the Pittsburgh org may soon have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and may not hang in the divisional race, while Marte is getting more expensive — but it’s a low-likelihood scenario.
It is intriguing to think of potential matches with the Mariners. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto rarely rests long between brokering deals and obviously has a connection with Klentak. (Not long before the Bruce swap, they pulled off a much more significant deal.) The Mariners resisted the temptation to move building-block Mitch Haniger in the offseason. He’s mostly a corner piece and hasn’t graded well in limited MLB action up the middle, but did spend a lot of time there in the minors and might be expected to perform well enough in that role for a season or two. Mallex Smith would be a true center field option, but he’s still trying to bounce back from a rough start. The Mariners acquired him as a hopeful long-term piece in an offseason swap and won’t be particularly keen to sell low.
One potentially interesting possibility would involve Whit Merrifield of the Royals. He’s known mostly as a second baseman, of course, but has been utilized more and more on the grass and has graded well in his limited time in center. If the Royals really are willing to listen, the Phillies ought to in the ear of K.C. GM Dayton Moore. Merrifield could plug into the center field opening now and be utilized in any number of different ways in the future. He’s an exceptional value, which will be reflected in the asking price.
The options could still expand in the coming months, though it’s honestly tough to foresee other viable center field targets. What are the other possibilities?
A major corner outfield acquisition just may not make a ton of sense for the Phils, who have Bruce and Harper in that role now and will welcome back McCutchen next season. Skipper Gabe Kapler already said he doesn’t plan to use Harper in center. While the right acquisition could perhaps change that line of thinking, that’s probably not the preferred route for GM Matt Klentak and the remainder of the front office.
That said, perhaps the Phillies can instead add one of the Dyson-type platoon pieces and also pursue a corner-oriented bat to boost their offensive productivity. The team could hold its nose at times on defense — as it was doing already with Cutch in center — and plan on deploying different personnel based upon the situation.
There ought to be quite a few corner pieces on the market. In addition to some of the names already covered, some of the aforementioned teams have other conceivable trade assets. Adam Jones at least has ample experience in center, even if he’s ill-suited to regular time there at this stage. He and David Peralta could be put on the block by the Diamondbacks. Left-handed hitters Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, and Melky Cabrera may not fit on the same Pirates roster. (Polanco could also be utilized in center, as he frequently was in the minors, though he has rarely been tasked with that role in Pittsburgh.) Domingo Santana of the M’s has slowed after a hot start but could be of some interest. Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are among the many options in San Diego.
Loads of other players will also come up. Perhaps the Orioles’ Trey Mancini isn’t a sensible target since he’ll come with a high asking price and is limited to a corner spot. But there are other, more plausible candidates. Nicholas Castellanos is sure to be discussed quite a bit this summer by the Tigers. The Angels may end up dealing Kole Calhoun in his walk year if they can’t hang in contention; likewise, the Reds could end up dangling Yasiel Puig and/or Derek Dietrich. Veteran corner outfielder Alex Gordon could be of interest, though it’s far from clear whether he’ll be available given his no-trade rights and special relationship with the Royals. Shin-Soo Choo of the Rangers would be just the bat the Phils would like, though he’s a poor defender and would be tough to carry alongside Bruce.
There is also one other general route that the Phillies could explore. If they’re willing to trust Kingery with extended action up the middle, perhaps by pairing him with a part-timer of Dyson’s ilk, then the Phils could free the youngster for that role by adding an infielder. Whether or not they fully give up on Franco, the club might seek to add offense at the hot corner. Kingery’s importance to the Philadelphia organization was already apparent before McCutchen’s injury. His flexibility and potentially emerging bat now expand the universe of possibilities as the front office approaches an increasingly interesting summer trade period.
Grade The Cubs’ Signing Of Craig Kimbrel
It took some time, but one of the game’s greatest relief pitchers finally found a home with the Cubs after shedding the draft compensation that attached when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. The Boston organization won’t get a draft pick for letting Craig Kimbrel walk, and the Chicago club won’t have to part with one. The Cubbies will, however, pay Kimbrel $10MM for his services down the stretch and $32MM for two more campaigns (along with a $1MM buyout or $16MM vesting/club option for another).
On the one hand, it’s notable that Kimbrel was still able to secure a significant, multi-year guarantee at this stage of the season. On the other … well, this still feels light. Entering the offseason, following some late-season stumbles from Kimbrel, we predicted $70MM over four years. That was stepped down from what might have been anticipated entering the 2019 campaign; after all, Kimbrel’s 2018 effort was among his most dominant. There were risks, sure, but that’s why we guessed a four instead of a five-year pact.
Kimbrel isn’t going to pitch for the Cubs for the entirety of this season, so there’s a reduction in price there. Even accounting for that, this contract still falls shy of the one the Rockies gave Wade Davis in the 2017-18 offseason. That three-year, $52MM pact (with a fourth-year vesting/club option) seemed like an obvious floor for Kimbrel. After all, Davis was an older pitcher who couldn’t match Kimbrel’s levels of dominance. And the Davis contract was signed even though it cost the Rox a second-round draft choice.
While it’s certainly hard to fault Kimbrel for preferring the best-available multi-year arrangement at this stage, he’s probably leaving some upside on the table by taking that route now rather than going for a pure rental agreement. It’s also still a significant commitment for a Cubs team that declared itself out of money over the winter but found some in the interim (in some part through an unusual situation with an expensive veteran). This isn’t a risk-free transaction; far from it, particularly given Kimbrel’s most recent on-field showing and the fact that he’ll be ramping up in the middle of an ongoing season.
How do you grade the signing from the team’s perspective?
(Poll link for app users.)
Grade The Cubs' Signing Of Craig Kimbrel
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A 47% (13,716)
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B 30% (8,698)
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C 14% (4,071)
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F 4% (1,227)
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D 4% (1,199)
Total votes: 28,911
Latest On Troy Tulowitzki
The Yankees announced that veteran infielder Troy Tulowitzki has left the team’s spring facility, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (Twitter link). He’ll take some time at home to “get over that (injury) hump and kind of push through the finish line of getting exactly right,” manager Aaron Boone explains.
It’s frankly hard to interpret this development. Boone had declared just days ago that Tulowitzki was “pretty much over” the lingering calf injury that originally sent him to the injured list. (Also via Hoch, on Twitter.) It’s unclear when the 34-year-old will be deemed ready for a rehab assignment.
Slated to fill in for a rehabbing Didi Gregorius, Tulowitzki made it through only five games to open the season before his latest health issue arose. He missed all of 2018 after heel surgery and only made it into 66 contests in the prior campaign.
What is clear is that Tulo will not make it back to the MLB roster before Gregorius, whose return to action appears to be imminent. Barring any intervening developments on the injury front, the return of Gregorius will put the shortstop position off limits except for fill-in opportunities.
Tulowitzki has been seeing time at third base in anticipation of just that scenario. There could still be a fit there, but there still isn’t much of an opening even in the absence of Miguel Andujar. The surprising Gio Urshela continues to turn in impressive results at the hot corner and the club will want to keep finding regular action for Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu. Even rookie fill-in Thairo Estrada has hit like a mid-prime Tulo to this point.
Under the circumstances, there’s no real rush from the Yankees’ perspective. It’s not clear at all that the organization has a use for Tulowitzki in the majors. But the Yanks certainly appreciate the value of depth, having both compiled and deployed it quite often this season. Tulowitzki is presently occupying a 40-man spot. While he could be shifted onto the 60-day IL, roster pressures will ultimately force a final determination on his status once he is back to health.
Quick Hits: Braves, Keuchel, Rangers, Calhoun, Yanks, Giants, Rays
Reports have pegged the Braves as one of the favorites to sign free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, but David O’Brien of The Athletic throws cold water on that possibility. The Braves have inquired about Keuchel and do have interest in him, per O’Brien, though he writes their interest has been “overstated.” Atlanta has not engaged in deep negotiations with Keuchel, O’Brien adds. The latest from O’Brien jibes with a Tuesday report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who wrote that the Braves are “uncomfortable” with the idea of paying Keuchel the prorated value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer (approximately $11.5MM).
- Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun landed on the 10-day IL on May 22 with a left quadriceps strain. It turns out the injury will likely keep him out of their lineup until at least late June, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests. The 24-year-old Calhoun, a former top 100 prospect, was amid an encouraging season before he went to the IL. Not only did Calhoun hit .304/.416/.557 with eight home runs and more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 138 Triple-A plate appearances, but he got off to a .435/.458/.739 start with a pair of HRs in 24 major league PA.
- The Yankees and Giants were among the many teams that showed interest in outfielder Harold Ramirez during his brief stay on the open market last offseason, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Blue Jays outrighted Ramirez on Nov. 20, and he ended up signing a minor league deal with the Marlins exactly a week later. The 24-year-old has since given the offensively challenged Marlins some much-needed production, having slashed .346/.386/.449 (128 wRC+) in 83 plate appearances.
- Rays outfielder Tommy Pham has been out since May 30 with a strained right calf, but it appears he’ll avoid an IL stint. The club expects to plug Pham back into its lineup Thursday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays. Pham’s enjoying his third straight prodigious campaign at the plate, with a .300/.414/.483 (145 wRC+) line, eight home runs and 38 walks against 43 strikeouts in 244 attempts.