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Mariners Acquire Caleb Ferguson

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The Mariners acquired left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates for minor league right-hander Jeter Martinez. Righty Collin Snider has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Ferguson is playing on a one-year, $3MM contract and is a free agent at season’s end.

Ferguson, 29, is in the midst of a strong season with Pittsburgh. He’s pitched 43 1/3 innings and logged a 3.74 ERA with a 19.3% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. He’s allowed only one homer on the season and kept just under 50% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground.

While Ferguson isn’t a flamethrower who misses bats in bunches — he’s averaging 94.1 mph on his four-seamer this season — he avoids hard contact better than any other reliever in the game. Ferguson’s 83.5 mph average exit velocity is the lowest of any pitcher in Major League Baseball (min. 40 innings). His 25.2% hard-hit rate is second, trailing only Padres standout lefty Adrian Morejon.

Ferguson has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons. He’s totaled a 3.69 earned run average in 305 big league innings. The southpaw typically misses more bats than he has in 2025 (career 26.4% strikeout rate), but he’s currently sporting his lowest walk rate since the shortened 2020 season and has never limited hard contact as well as he’s managed to this year. Ferguson has been an absolute monster against left-handed opponents, limiting them to a pitiful .167/.257/.182 slash in 74 plate appearances. He’s also been strong against right-handers, however, holding them to a .250/.327/.354 slash. It’s not quite dominant, but this is his best production versus righties since 2022.

The Mariners have only had one reliable left-hander in their bullpen this season: Gabe Speier. They’ve given brief looks to Tayler Saucedo, Blas Castaño and Jhonathan Diaz, but no one from that group has even pitched five innings out of the big league bullpen. Ferguson gives skipper Dan Wilson a second southpaw option who, like Speier, can handle both lefties and righties.

Seattle is known to be on the lookout for high-impact talent at the back of the bullpen. Ferguson isn’t necessarily that marquee arm they’ve been seeking, but in all likelihood he’ll be just one of multiple relievers acquired. The Mariners are reportedly making a run at Twins closer Jhoan Duran and have also been tied to young, controllable bullpen arms in Colorado like Seth Halvorsen and Juan Mejia.

As for the Pirates, they’ll spin their low-cost investment in Ferguson into the 19-year-old Martinez. The 6’4″ righty, signed out of Mexico for a $600K bonus during the 2022-23 signing period, has started 16 games against older and more advanced competition with the Mariners’ Low-A affiliate. He’s struggled to a 6.18 ERA due in no small part to a 13.2% walk rate.

Martinez posted strong ERAs in prior seasons with the Mariners’ affiliate in the Dominican Summer League, however, and he’s shown plenty of ability to miss bats with a mid-90s fastball that can scrape triple digits. Baseball America ranked Martinez 22nd among Seattle prospects earlier this month. FanGraphs ranked him 15th in the system last month, where Eric Longenhagen praised that heater and a pair of secondary pitches (slider, changeup) that could be plus pitches. Command is the biggest issue, but Martinez is still more than two years away from needing to be added to the 40-man roster, so the Pirates will have awhile to try to rein in the free passes and keep him in the rotation. If a move to the bullpen ends up being necessary, it’s easy enough to imagine Martinez’s already impressive fastball playing up a bit further.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Mariners were acquiring Ferguson. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported that Martinez was going the other way.

Mets Acquire Tyler Rogers

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The Mets have acquired right-hander Tyler Rogers from the Giants, according to announcements from both clubs. In return, the Giants receive right-hander José Buttó, pitching prospect Blade Tidwell and outfield prospect Drew Gilbert. The Giants designated right-hander Sean Hjelle for assignment in order to open a 40-man spot. Gilbert wasn’t on the Mets’ 40-man and won’t require a spot today. Both of the Rogers twins have been traded today, as the lefty Taylor was in the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade.

Tyler, the submarining righty, will be joining a new club for the first time in his career. He was drafted by the Giants back in 2013 and has spent his entire career with that franchise up until now. He doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging just 83.1 miles per hour on his fastball during his career. But he has nonetheless found success thanks to his unusual delivery, mixing in a sinker and a slider with his four-seamer.

Perhaps because he isn’t a fireballer, Rogers is remarkably durable. He has never been on the major league injured list. From his debut in August of 2019 to the present, he has appeared in 392 big league games. That’s the most in the majors in that span.

The quantity is great but the quality is also impressive. Rogers has a 2.79 earned run average in his 396 2/3 innings. His 18.2% strikeout rate is subpar but his 4.6% walk rate and 56.5% ground ball rate are both excellent figures. This year, he’s been even better than before. He has a 1.80 ERA this season, along with a 20.2% strikeout rate, 2.1% walk rate and 64.4% grounder rate. He induces heaps of weak contact, as shown by his blood-red Statcast page. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate are all at least in the 94th percentile of qualified pitchers. He is making a $5.25MM salary this year, his final year of arbitration. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

The total package is understandably appealing to the Mets. Their bullpen has been ravaged by injuries this year. Since the season started, they have lost A.J. Minter, Danny Young, Dedniel Núñez, and Max Kranick to season-ending injuries. The bullpen has been a clear priority for them at this deadline. They have already added Gregory Soto and now Rogers gives them another fresh arm. Given all those injuries, Rogers’ durability is surely an attractive feature.

The money is also notable, with Rogers owed less than $1.75MM at this point of the calendar. The Mets are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and are above the top threshold, meaning they face a 110% tax on any spending they add to the ledger this week. Some veteran relievers such as Raisel Iglesias or Kenley Jansen are making eight-figure salaries, so the price point on Rogers is a softer hit for the Mets.

To get the player they wanted, it feels like they have given up a lot. Tidwell, 24, was a second-round pick of the Mets in 2022. Since then, he has generally been ranked as one of the club’s top ten prospects. His results since getting up to Triple-A haven’t been astounding. He has a 5.05 ERA in 164 innings at the top minor league level. He’s been a bit better there this year, with a 4.10 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.

Baseball America currently lists Tidwell as the Mets’ #10 prospect. They give him a 50 grade on the 20-80 scale and classify him as high risk. Their report notes that he’ll need to improve his control get become a back-end starter. A month ago, FanGraphs ranked him #7 in the system but with a 45+ grade, noting that he could develop into a mid-rotation guy but with some reliever risk thanks to his control issues and high-effort delivery.

Gilbert, 24, was a first-round pick of the Astros in 2022 but came to the Mets in the August 2023 trade which sent Justin Verlander back to Houston. Gilbert’s stock has dipped a bit since that trade. He missed a decent chunk of 2024 due to a hamstring injury and slashed .205/.313/.371 when he was on the field. This year, he’s been better, with a .246/.349/.435 line and 105 wRC+ in his Triple-A action.

BA ranks him #14 in the Mets’ system, also with a 50 grade and high risk. FanGraphs puts him at #10 with a 45 grade. The latter outlet notes he mostly does damage against fastballs but struggles against spin. He can play all three outfield spots but evaluators generally think it’s a bit of a stretch to have him in center. FanGraphs describes him as a “low-variance fourth outfielder.” He is going to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December, meaning he’ll need a 40-man roster spot before then.

Buttó can plug directly into the San Francisco bullpen to replace Rogers. He has thrown 167 big league innings with a 3.45 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate. He is out of options and some of this year’s trend lines aren’t good. His strikeout rate was 26.9% last year but has dipped to just 20.7% this season, while his walk rate has stayed high at 11.1%. Perhaps he was going to get squeezed off the Mets’ roster as part of their deadline moves regardless.

Though it might come across a lot to give up for a soft-tossing rental, the Mets may not have had Gilbert or Buttó in their long-term plans. As mentioned, Gilbert was going to need a 40-man spot in a few months’ time. If the Mets view him as a future Quad-A outfielder and not an everyday regular, perhaps they could find another use for that roster spot. Buttó is out of options and might have been trending towards being designated for assignment.

For the Giants, there’s undoubtedly a lot to like in this haul. They hovered in the playoff race for a lot of the year but have been cold lately and are now five games back of a playoff spot. It was reported earlier that they would be listening to offers on their relievers. Rogers, as mentioned, is a 34-year-old impending free agent.

The Giants have swapped him out for Buttó. That makes their bullpen worse today but Rogers was on his way out the door anyway and perhaps they can find a way to get Buttó back on track. With Tidwell, they add some immediate rotation depth, something which has been an issue this year.

They have Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as a strong one-two but question marks after. They flipped Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal. Verlander is an impending free agent. Landen Roupp is currently shelved with elbow inflammation. Hayden Birdsong had some encouraging results earlier in the year but recently struggled enough to get sent down to Triple-A. The club will likely look for more starting pitching in the offseason but Tidwell can jump into that depth mix alongside guys like Roupp, Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Mason Black and others.

Gilbert gives them some extra outfield depth. They will go into 2026 with Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee in two spots, but Mike Yastrzemski is an impending free agent. Guys like Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, Grant McCray, Marco Luciano and Daniel Johnson are on the 40-man roster. Assuming Gilbert gets a roster spot this fall, he’ll jump into that mix.

If Tidwell becomes a mid-rotation guy or Gilbert develops into an everyday outfielder, perhaps the Mets will feel they overpaid. But there are some reasons to expect those things might not come to pass, so it seems they felt it was a risk worth taking in order to get Rogers and upgrade their bullpen for the stretch run and postseason. Relievers tend to become more important in the playoffs, when off-days allow the top guys to pitch almost every game.

This could be the first of a handful of sell-side moves the Giants make. Verlander is an impending free agent, though he has a full no-trade clause and 4.53 ERA, which could complicate talks. Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores are impending free agents as well. Camilo Doval still has a couple of years of club control but could be on the move as well.

Hjelle, 28, is known for his height and ability to induce ground balls. Listed at 6’11”, he has 149 2/3 big league innings under his belt with a 5.11 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 56% ground ball rate. His numbers have trended in the wrong direction this year, with a 15.1% strikeout rate and 42.3% grounder rate. That’s a small sample of 15 innings, as he’s mostly been in the minors this year. In his 40 1/3 Triple-A innings this season, he has a 2.90 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 51.9% ground ball rate.

The Giants could try to find a trade partner for Hjelle in the next 24 hours. If not, he’ll have to go on waivers. He can be optioned for the rest of this year and could perhaps appeal to clubs looking for pitching depth, though he’ll be out of options next year.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Taylor was headed to the Mets. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Tidwell and Gilbert would be part of the three-player return. Joel Sherman of The New York Post was first on Buttó’s inclusion.

Photos courtesy of Matt Kartozian, Kelley L Cox, Tim Vizer, Charles LeClaire and Sam Navarro, Imagn Images.

Yankees, Mets, Phillies Have Discussed Mason Miller With A’s

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The Yankees, Mets, and Phillies have all engaged in talks with the Athletics regarding closer Mason Miller, reports The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. This update comes 10 days after USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported in no uncertain terms that Miller was off the market. While Rosenthal does not suggest a trade is likely, it seems the A’s are at least entertaining offers.

Any conversations between the A’s and Phillies may have been brief. Rosenthal notes the A’s asked for Philadelphia’s top pitching prospect, Andrew Painter, in return for Miller. But as Rosenthal and colleague Matt Gelb reported earlier today, the Phillies “refuse to even entertain the thought of moving Painter.” Rosenthal and Gelb suggested that the Phillies’ refusal to part with Painter likely eliminates them from the market for Miller or Twins closer Jhoan Duran.

Rosenthal also throws a bit of cold water on the Yankees connection. The A’s, he explains, are seeking top-tier young arms (hence their interest in Painter). Meanwhile, he mentions that the Yankees are “more focused on adding pitching than subtracting it.” In other words, the A’s are presumably seeking close-to-MLB-ready pitchers (as their interest in Painter implies), and the Yankees, who have learned a lot about the value of pitching depth this season, might not be willing to part with the sort of players who meet the Athletics’ criteria.

As for the Mets, they might not be quite as interested in Miller after they dealt for Tyler Rogers this afternoon. Rogers might not have Miller’s closing experience, high ceiling, or years of team control, but he’s arguably having a better season than Miller, and he and Edwin Díaz give the Mets a strong one-two pairing of right-handers at the back end of their bullpen. The Mets also traded for left-hander Gregory Soto last week, so they might now prefer to focus their efforts on improvements in other areas.

All this to say, the chances of Miller being moved this summer still seem slim, but it might not be out of the question. Perhaps if fellow closers Duran or Ryan Helsley fetch a high enough price for the Twins and Cardinals, respectively, the Athletics will be convinced to take advantage of a relatively weak trade market and the high number of contenders seeking bullpen help.

Featured image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images.

Mariners Promote Tyler Locklear, Place Luke Raley On Injured List

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The Mariners placed first baseman/outfielder Luke Raley on the 10-day injured list due to back spasms and recalled first baseman Tyler Locklear from Triple-A Tacoma, per a team announcement. (Adam Jude of the Seattle Times first reported the moves.) The team has not indicated how long Raley is expected to be sidelined, but his placement on the IL is retroactive to July 27, meaning he can return in a week’s time.

Locklear, 24, was making a case for a call to the majors even before Raley’s injury was known. The former second-round pick is among the hottest hitting prospects in baseball, slashing .316/.401/.542 on the season. That includes a solid but unexciting start to his 2025 season; dating back to Memorial Day weekend, Locklear has posted an outrageous .356/.441/.681 slash in 50 games (227 plate appearances).

Locklear received a brief look in the majors last season, but he didn’t hit much in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances. He’s spent the entire 2025 season in Triple-A. Last week’s acquisition of Josh Naylor means Locklear won’t be stepping in to take everyday at-bats at first base, but he can mix in at designated hitter and give the M’s a big bat off the bench.

This year’s surge at the plate has put Locklear back on the map as a potential long-term option at first, but it’s surely also sparked some trade interest in the young slugger. The Mariners have been looking for help at third base and in the bullpen, and Locklear is one of many appealing prospects in a deep Mariners farm system that could help president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander achieve those goals.

As for Raley, it’s the second IL stint of his season. He missed about five weeks earlier due to an oblique strain. He’s having a down year at the plate, particularly in terms of power output, hitting .220/.343/.348 in 170 trips to the plate. That batting line is at least partially skewed by a recent and notable slump that’s seen Raley hit just .190/.320/.286 with 19 strikeouts in his past 50 trips to the plate. It’s certainly possible that Raley’s back issue has been plaguing him for some time and contributed to that skid.

Jhoan Duran Trade Market Picking Up

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3:39pm: The Mariners are also making a run at Duran today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman, like Nightengale, adds that there is now an expectation that Duran will be moved at some point today.

2:16pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also writes that there’s a good chance of Duran being moved before the end of the day. Nightengale adds that the Twins have held out for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter in conversations with the Phillies. Philadelphia has been steadfast in not wanting to move Painter in prior trade discussions. It’s a big ask on Minnesota’s part, but that reflects Duran’s affordable control window. Passan had reported last week that the Twins wanted multiple top 100 caliber prospects for either Duran or Jax.

2:07pm: The likelihood of a Jhoan Duran trade seems to be rising. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggested this afternoon that Minnesota’s talks with other teams on the star closer are “heating up.” Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears similarly and adds that the Twins could have an agreement on a Duran deal later today.

The Mariners and Yankees have been loosely tied to his market in recent days. Heyman reports that the Phillies and Red Sox are strongly involved and adds the Mets as another team that has at least shown some interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds that the Twins have had conversations with the Dodgers concerning each of Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Padres are among the teams also known to be exploring the market for high-leverage bullpen help — though none has been linked to Duran specifically.

Duran is probably the prize of the reliever market, particularly with Emmanuel Clase no longer an option. The 27-year-old righty throws harder than anyone else in baseball aside from Mason Miller. His four-seam fastball sits in the triple digits, and he averages 97.5 MPH on his absurd sinker/splitter hybrid. Duran’s upper 80s knuckle-curve is an elite pitch in its own right. He has a 2.47 earned run average in parts of four big league seasons. That includes a 2.01 mark through 49 1/3 frames this season. He’s 16-18 in save chances, has struck out more than a quarter of opponents, and is second among relievers (minimum 40 innings) with a monster 65.4% ground-ball percentage.

The Twins are going to move a handful of impending free agents, including lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. The bigger question is whether they’ll trade any of their key controllable pieces. Duran is making $4.125MM and under arbitration control through 2027. Jax, a setup man with even bigger strikeout stuff, is also controllable for two seasons. Varland is still a season away from arbitration and comes with five years of club control, so it’d be very surprising if the Twins trade him.

Minnesota is also getting calls on right-hander Brock Stewart, writes ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The 33-year-old Stewart is playing for barely above the league minimum and has two additional seasons of arbitration control. He has punched out 30% of batters faced en route to a 2.38 ERA across 34 innings. Stewart’s age and notable injury history (elbow discomfort in 2023, arthroscopic shoulder surgery last summer) mean the Twins should be looking to sell high despite the affordable control window.

Pirates Trade Ke’Bryan Hayes To Reds

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The Reds and Pirates have come together on an intra-division swap that will send third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati, per announcements from both clubs. The Pirates are receiving veteran reliever Taylor Rogers and minor league shortstop Sammy Stafura. The Reds will reportedly take on the entirety of Hayes’ contract, which runs through the 2029 season.

Hayes, 28, is a former first-round pick and top prospect who looked to be on the cusp of stardom early in his career. He graded as an elite defensive third baseman throughout his time in the minors and hit well as he climbed the minor league ladder. Hayes made an electric debut in the shortened 2020 season, showing off that plus-plus glove while hitting .376/.442/682 in his first 95 big league plate appearances.

Hayes didn’t replicate that output in his first full big league season in 2021, but he held his own with a .257/.316/.373 batting line in 396 plate appearances despite missing significant time due to a wrist injury. He hit just six homers but played outstanding defense and swiped nine bags. The following April, Pittsburgh signed him to an eight-year, $70MM deal which, at the time, was the largest in franchise history.

Unfortunately for Hayes and the Pirates, back injuries have become a recurring problem in Hayes’ still-young career. He’s spent significant time on the injured list due to back troubles in 2022, 2023 and 2024 — totaling five IL stints due to his back in that period of three years. Hayes still managed a league-average season at the plate in 2023 (.271/.309/.453, 100 wRC+, 15 homers, 10 steals) but he’s been a well below-average hitter since. In 788 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2024, he’s mustered only a .234/.281/.290 batting line (58 wRC+).

The Pirates frontloaded Hayes’ extension, paying him $10MM in each of the contract’s first two seasons and then cutting the salary back to $7-8MM per year thereafter. He’s making $7MM in 2025, with about $2.26MM of that sum yet to be paid out. He’ll then be owed $36MM from 2026-29 ($30MM in salary plus at least a $6MM buyout on a $12MM club option for the 2030 season).

It’s a relatively hefty sum to take on, though Hayes remains such a premium defender that his glove alone is arguably worth the remaining $9MM annual value on the contract (including the 2026 buyout). Hayes has been credited with an astonishing 91 Defensive Runs Saved and 73 Outs Above Average in 4796 career innings at third base, including 16 DRS and 15 OAA in 861 innings this year already. Since Hayes debuted in 2020, he leads all of Major League Baseball (at all positions) in both DRS and OAA. Andres Gimenez’s 63 DRS and Francisco Lindor’s 68 OAA are the second-highest marks in each category.

On top of a legitimate claim to being the game’s top defensive player, Hayes does have some encouraging offensive trends. His 20.7% strikeout rate in 2025 matches his career mark and checks in lower than the league average. He also regularly posts strong batted-ball metrics. Hayes has averaged 90.7 mph off the bat in his career, and 46.3% of his batted balls have traveled 95 mph or faster. The downside, however, is that far too much of that hard contact comes in the form of ground-balls. A hefty 49.5% of Hayes’ career batted balls have been hit into the ground, and his lack of consistent elevation offsets his average power.

A move to Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could prove beneficial. Pittsburgh’s PNC Park is the toughest park in MLB on right-handed power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors. Great American, meanwhile, has been the second most conducive park to right-handed home runs in that time. It’s feasible that Hayes might at least eke out a few extra home runs just from the more favorable dimensions in his new home park.

The acquisition of Hayes could push infielder Noelvi Marte into the outfield on a more permanent basis. Marte is enjoying a nice rebound year at the plate, batting .276/.329/.500 with seven home runs and six steals in 146 plate appearances. Cincinnati has been having Marte go through outfield drills and has given him eight innings of actual right field (three games) over the past couple weeks.

Rogers’ inclusion in the Hayes return is solely for financial purposes. The 34-year-old is an impending free agent earning $12MM in the final season of a three-year $33MM contract, though the Giants are paying half that salary under the terms of the offseason trade that shipped him to Cincinnati. The Pirates, in all likelihood, will turn around and try to trade Rogers before tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

So far in 2025, Rogers has pitched to a 2.45 ERA with a 23.3% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate in 33 innings. Rogers has a track record as a closer and setup man but hasn’t been used frequently in high-leverage spots by the Reds this year. He should draw some interest, especially if Pittsburgh is willing to pay down some of the $1.94MM he’s still owed through season’s end.

Beyond shedding the entirety of an unwanted contract, the Pirates’ return in the trade is the 20-year-old Stafura. He’s just two years removed from being the No. 43 overall pick in the draft and receiving an over-slot bonus of nearly $2.5MM. Stafura was regarded as a potential first-round pick in 2023. He’s spent the 2025 season in Class-A, hitting .262/.393/.411 (131 wRC+) with four home runs, 18 doubles, nine triples and 28 stolen bases (in 33 attempts).

Stafura possesses well above-average speed and has walked in more than 15% of his plate appearances in his professional career. His 23.9% strikeout rate is a bit high and there have been some concerns about Stafura’s hit tool. He’s played 170 of his 172 games in the field at shortstop (plus two at second base). Baseball America, in ranking Stafura ninth among Reds farmhands, noted that while Stafura has a roughly average arm, it’s quite accurate and he has the other defensive skills needed to stick at shortstop. It’s always possible Stafura will eventually slide to second or move into a utility role, but for now, the Pirates figure to keep him at shortstop.

Cincinnati has spent much of the past few weeks looking for offensive upgrades. Hayes is quite possibly an offensive downgrade, but he’ll be a massive boost to the team’s defense. The Reds, presumably, will remain in the market for a hitter who can more meaningfully upgrade their lineup.

Mark Feinsand, Mark Sheldon and Alex Stumpf of MLB.com first reported that Hayes had been traded to the Reds. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the return. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the Reds were taking on Hayes’ entire contract.

Dodgers Interested In Pete Fairbanks, Shane Bieber

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The Dodgers have been connected to a number of high-profile bats this summer, ranging from Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. The focus has primarily been on upgrading the club’s bullpen, however, and while the L.A. has reportedly been connected to everyone from Ryan Helsley to David Bednar, those aren’t the only bullpen arms they could pursue. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes that the club is seeking “at least one” right-handed reliever on the trade market, and adds that they’ve shown interest in Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Aside from that, it seems as though the Dodgers have at least some cursory interest in dabbling in the rotation market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that L.A. brass has spoken to Cleveland about right-hander Shane Bieber.

Fairbanks, 31, has a 20.2% strikeout rate that’s down relative to previous years but hasn’t seen his results impacted as he’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA and 2.89 FIP. His solid 47.8% ground ball rate helps to explain that to some extent, although some advanced metrics are still skeptical considering that his 3.98 SIERA this year is the worst of his career. With that being said, Fairbanks had a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 2.66 ERA over a four year stretch from 2020 to 2023, and given that he’s just two years removed from those heights it would hardly be surprising if some suitors hope to unlock that elite production from him again in the future. Further helping Fairbanks’s value is that he’s controllable through the 2026 season by way of a club option valued at $7MM.

That combination of strong recent results, an impressive track record, and additional team control beyond this season has made Fairbanks a hot commodity on the trade market. The Rangers and Cubs have both been directly connected to him in recent days in addition to the Dodgers, while a number of other teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers are known to be on the prowl for bullpen help. With that said, there’s reason to wonder if the Dodgers might bow out if the market gets too hot on Fairbanks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Dodgers are not currently in the “high-end” relief market. With that being said, Rosenthal specifically mentions Twins closer Jhoan Duran and A’s closer Mason Miller. Both Duran and Miller are even more well-regarded than Fairbanks while also coming with more team control, so it’s entirely possible that Fairbanks is someone the Dodgers would still be willing to pay a relative premium given that his acquisition cost would likely still be incomparable to the likes of Duran and Miller.

Moving on to Bieber, the Guardians are known to be “trying to move” the right-hander. He’s not yet pitched this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season, but figures to be ready to pitch at some point in August. A former Cy Young award winner with a 2.91 ERA and 2.96 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, Bieber is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and could offer a huge boost to any club down the stretch and into the playoffs this year. The Cubs have been connected to Bieber already in the rumor mill, and a number of other teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays would also make sense for his services. A $16M player option ($4M buyout) for the 2026 season could complicate negotiations in theory, but it’s extremely unlikely that Bieber would exercise an option at that price point barring a significant injury given the ability of starters with his upside and track record to command far more than that even when coming off poor seasons.

The Dodgers are nonetheless a somewhat curious fit for his services given that they already have a stacked rotation that features Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell along with a bevy of viable back-end depth options. On the other hand, the club had a rash of injuries that left them struggling to field a full rotation earlier this year, and after suffering that same fate in the playoffs last season it would be understandable if the club decided to add yet another high-end arm to the mix in order to safeguard themselves ahead of a postseason where they’ll be looking to defend their World Series title. Los Angeles already has six MLB starters on the 60-day injured list, and while Snell is expected to be activated in the near future that just goes to demonstrate the fragility of modern pitchers and the importance of having excess depth.

Red Sox Interested In Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Sandy Alcantara

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The Red Sox are known to be on the lookout for starting pitching, having already been connected to arms like Mitch Keller and Dylan Cease. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that they have also shown interested in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR adds that the Sox have been monitoring Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.

All three pitchers are seen as likely candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Diamondbacks have already started selling players approaching free agency. They flipped first baseman Josh Naylor to the Mariners and outfielder Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They will likely trade third baseman Eugenio Suárez as well.

Like all of those players, Gallen and Kelly are impending free agents and both should have value. With Gallen, 29, the question will be how much other clubs put stock into this year’s struggles versus his better numbers in the past. He came into this season with 815 1/3 career innings, having allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate.

This year, however, his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.1%. That has been part of the reason his ERA has climbed to 5.60. There’s also a bit of bad luck in there, as his 64% strand rate is to the unfortunate side, as is his 16.3% home run to fly ball rate. His 4.75 FIP and 4.14 SIERA are a bit more optimistic than his ERA but still point to him not quite being the same pitcher this year.

Still, there’s a lack of clear ace types on the trade market this year. There have been some rumors surrounding pitchers like MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan. However, a trade of either of those guys still seems like a long shot. Perhaps there are clubs out there who see a way to get Gallen back on track. He is making $13.5MM this year, which is notable but still below market for a solid starter. He’s already been connected to the Blue Jays and now Red Sox but his market surely extends to plenty of other clubs.

Kelly doesn’t have ace upside but his profile is more steady and he’s having a better year. The 36-year-old has a 3.74 ERA in his career, along with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate. He had a 3.37 ERA in 2022 and a 3.29 mark the year after. His ERA spiked a bit last year as he battled injuries settling at 4.03. This year, he’s back down to 3.22. His 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate this season are all better than average. He’s only making $7MM this year, basically half of Gallen.

Alcantara, like Gallen, would be more of a bet on past performance. Alcantara won a Cy Young award in 2022 but missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his return from that procedure has not been smooth. In 109 innings this year, he has a 6.36 earned run average. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still above league average but he was regularly above 50% in previous seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a huge drop, as he was in the 22-24% range in his best years.

It’s a tricky spot for the Marlins to be in. They are rebuilding and surely want to cash in Alcantara for young talent. However, given his performance, they might not get their asking price and could decide to hold. Alcantara is under contract for next year with a $17MM salary, then there’s a $21MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2027. If Miami can’t find a deal to its liking, they could try in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. Though the current market conditions might prompt some club to take a chance on Sandy.

For the Red Sox, they have Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Dobbins all on the injured list. Their healthy rotation has Garrett Crochet at the front but then things get dicey after that. Walker Buehler has a 5.72 ERA. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 4.16 SIERA. Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.26 FIP and 4.37 SIERA. There’s room to upgrade.

Payroll wise, Roster Resource has the Sox right up against the competitive balance tax. However, club decision makers expressed a willingness to pay the tax this year. In fact, their CBT number was over the line before they traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. That suggests they could have some ability to take on a bit of money in order to bolster their roster for the stretch run.

Photo courtesy of Jacob Reiner, Imagn Images

MLB Mailbag: Kwan, Bieber, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Braves

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Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.

John asks:

Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?

Robb asks:

Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.

In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.

Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027.  Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.

Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley.  Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians.  The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.

Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.

Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing.  The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year.  C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%.  It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.

What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?

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Angels Designate Jose Quijada For Assignment

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The Angels designated lefty reliever José Quijada for assignment. That’s a corresponding move for the now official acquisition of relievers Andrew Chafin and Luis García from the Nationals. Lefty Jake Eder, one of two players headed back to Washington, was already on the 40-man roster. The Angels only needed to create one opening as a result.

Quijada’s contract was just selected last week. He made two scoreless appearances, striking out three batters in an inning and a third. The 29-year-old southpaw had been designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training. He cleared outright waivers and has spent the majority of the season at Double-A Rocket City. Quijada turned in a 2.73 earned run average through 26 1/3 innings while striking out 37.1% of batters faced at that level. That earned him another brief stint in the big league bullpen, but he’s been pushed off by today’s pair of veterans.

The Angels can technically try to trade Quijada until tomorrow evening. The likelier outcome is that he’ll just go back on outright waivers. He’s playing on a $1.075MM arbitration salary that checks in a little above the MLB minimum. Quijada would need to forfeit that salary to elect free agency, so he’d likely accept another minor league assignment if he clears waivers.

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