Trade Chatter: Cabrera, Longoria, McCann, Kendrick, Ozuna, Espinosa
With money to spend, the Astros are expected to pursue a big-ticket bat, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter links). There has long been at least some reason to believe the ‘Stros would be in on free agent Edwin Encarnacion, and that’s a possibility per the report. More intriguingly, though, Morosi suggests that Houston will look into dealing for Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera. There are a number of barriers to that kind of move, of course. While Morosi posits that fellow Venezuelan Jose Altuve could be part of a sales pitch to get Cabrera to waive his no-trade protection, that’s but one element. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said yesterday that he prefers not to part with young assets to make a deal, and surely Detroit will want something back for a player who is still producing premium offensive numbers at 33 years of age. But he’s getting up in years, is limited to first base or DH, and is still owed $220MM over the next seven seasons.
- Speaking of blockbusters, Morosi also suggests on Twitter that the Rays will be open to scenarios involving star third baseman Evan Longoria. The Dodgers could be one possibility, he posits, at least assuming they don’t land Justin Turner in free agency. Again, it seems there’s reason to avoid running away with expectations. Longoria is fresh off of a strong campaign and is only beginning a reasonable, but hardly cheap $100MM contract extension that was struck way back in 2012. Though Tampa Bay is always a candidate to move salary, and the connection to Rays-turned-Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman is interesting, Los Angeles has proven hesitant to deal away top-quality young assets under his watch. And that’s surely what the Rays would request.
- The Yankees are readying for a possible deal involving catcher/DH Brian McCann, as Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report. Although that is hardly a forgone conclusion, it certainly seems as if a trade is a legitimate possibility. New York GM Brian Cashman has chatted with McCann’s agent about the possibility of a trade — the veteran has full no-trade protection — and Cashman acknowledges that there is a lot of interest with a lot of rivals seeking to improve behind the dish. Meanwhile, the long-time Yankees GM noted that he doesn’t foresee striking a major deal for an ace-level starting pitcher, explaining that such a move would be more appropriate if the club were to “feel like you’re one player away.”
- We heard yesterday that the Dodgers will consider dealing veteran infielder (and, more recently, outfielder) Howie Kendrick, with a reunion with the Angels cited as a possibility. But that’s not a very realistic scenario, in the estimation of Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter links). Though he only requires a one-year commitment, Kendrick also isn’t terribly cheap with $10MM owed for 2017. He’s also a right-handed bat, which wouldn’t be preferred, and has shown signs of decline in the field and at the plate. The Halos are likely “aiming higher,” per Fletcher, who recently broke down some options for the club. Los Angeles isn’t interested in moving Yunel Escobar to second, he notes, but will be pursuing outside additions. Fletcher cites Cesar Hernandez of the Phillies as a trade possibility, with Derek Dietrich of the Marlins and Scooter Gennett of the Brewers also representing possible trade candidates (though both would arguably best be paired with a platoon mate).
- Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna has long been a popular name in trade chatter, though he remains in Miami after a strong 2016 season. As MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports, the Marlins aren’t desperate to move him — though they are putting a priority on adding quality starting pitching, and may find that necessary. President of baseball operations Michel Hill explained that the team will continue to put a high price on Ozuna. “We’re not going to sell him on the low, or trade him 20 cents on the dollar, because this is a premium position player with power and athleticism,” said Hill. “I think he showed this year, this is who he is.”
- As the Nationals evaluate their options up the middle with a bit of roster flexibility, the team is amenable to consider moving veteran shortstop Danny Espinosa, GM Mike Rizzo suggested to reporters including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Though Rizzo said he’d still be “comfortable” utilizing Espinosa at short, he noted that there a variety of other possibilities. “I could see him as utility player. I could see him as a player you could utilize in a trade context to get another piece that you need,” Rizzo said. “There’s a lot of moving parts we can go, and a lot of different avenues we can attack.” While Espinosa doesn’t have immense trade value — he’s limited offensively and projects to earn $5.3MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — it’s certainly possible to imagine him being swapped out for another short-term veteran at another area of need (the bullpen, perhaps).
Free Agent Profile: Ivan Nova
In July, Ivan Nova was nearly a forgotten man. He’d started the season in the Yankees bullpen, then struggled after heading to the rotation in May. Leave it to the Pirates and their pitcher-fixing ways to change that, however. Nova excelled down the stretch after heading to Pittsburgh in a low-profile deadline trade, and he now looks like one of the top starting pitchers available in a paper-thin free agent market.
Pros/Strengths
If we had to edit this section down to six words, it would read, “everything he did with the Pirates.” In 64 2/3 innings with the Bucs, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 7.2 K/9, a 52.3% ground ball rate and an astounding 0.4 BB/9. (Or, to put that differently, he walked three batters in a span of more than two months.) With the Bucs, Nova focused on throwing first-pitch strikes and improving his release point, and the results speak for themselves. If he’s able to retain the improvements he made, he’ll make a strong addition to pretty much any rotation, and at the relatively young age of 29, there’s hope that he’ll be able to continue contributing for years to come, especially since his ability to get ground balls gives him something of a floor.
As I noted in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece in late August, Nova also has precedent on his side. Other pitchers the Pirates have fixed (either in perception or reality) have continued to pitch at least reasonably well elsewhere, including J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez and Mark Melancon. The Jays are surely happy with their $36MM investment in Happ, whose situation parallels Nova’s in many ways — the Bucs acquired Happ in an under-the-radar deadline deal in 2015, and he immediately transformed from a forgettable back-of-the-rotation type to a strike-throwing stopper. He maintained much of that improvement this year in Toronto, posting a 3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 195 innings and attaining a level of sustained success he’d never experienced before. His contract, seemingly at least somewhat of a risk at the time, now looks like a bargain. Nova’s representatives at the Legacy Agency can point to Happ’s example to show that Nova’s success is unlikely to turn out to be a fluke, or a temporary benefit of working with Ray Searage and the rest of the Pirates’ coaching staff.
Cons/Weaknesses
Again in six words: “everything he did before the Pirates.” There is nothing in Nova’s pre-August track record — besides, perhaps, his consistent ground-ball ability — to suggest he’s worthy of the kind of contract he seems likely to command this winter. The relatively high prospect price the Bucs paid to get Nova (they gave up outfielder Tito Polo and lefty Stephen Tarpley as players to be named) suggests Nova did have value on the trade market. Still, if Nova’s Pirates numbers speak for themselves, his pre-trade numbers do too — before the deal, he’d posted a 4.90 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees. His statistics before that (he had a career 4.33 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 before 2016, only topping 170 innings in a season one time) are fine but likewise uninspiring. The team that signs Nova will be taking a very expensive gamble that his excellent two months with the Pirates represent his real talent level going forward. That’s a dicey proposition for a number of reasons. Two months is a small sample, and it’s easy to imagine Nova having walked a few more batters in his Pirates tenure and posting a line that looked distinctly less impressive.
Nova had also allowed 19 home runs in 2016 before the trade. Home-run rate isn’t the best indicator of future performance for a pitcher, but Nova also allowed hard contact at a high 35.6% rate. It’s possible to argue that Nova’s success with the Pirates was largely a result of his feeling free to throw more strikes due to the generally homer-unfriendly context in which the Bucs play. (It’s hard to throw as many strikes as Nova did with the Pirates without worrying about the ball flying out of the park every so often.) He might therefore be less attractive target for teams in homer-happy ballparks or divisions.
Personal
Nova was born in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, and as a child, he initially played shortstop and outfield. In 2004, after a growth spurt landed him on the prospect radar, he signed for $80K with the Yankees, the team he’d rooted for as a youngster. He is married to former Miss Dominican Republic Ada de la Cruz.
Market
Nova’s future appears especially bright given the quality of his free agent competition. The only starting pitcher who decisively looks like a better buy is Rich Hill, and even that might be debatable, since Hill is 36. Jeremy Hellickson is the same age as Nova and has a better track record, but lacks the upside Nova demonstrated in his strong finish. Also, since Nova was traded this season, he can’t be extended a qualifying offer, unlike Hellickson.
The Pirates need pitching help and attempted to extend Nova before season’s end, although they reportedly balked at Nova’s asking price of five years and $70MM. They could get involved again this winter, and Nova appears amenable to returning. Signing Nova will almost certainly require the Pirates to make their largest-ever commitment to a free agent, and their recent dumping of Francisco Liriano (whose last free agent contract is the Bucs’ current largest ever) in a dubious salary-shedding trade might indicate they won’t be willing or able to pay Nova what he might be able to get elsewhere. The Angels, Rangers, Twins and Braves also stand out as teams that could have interest.
Expected Contract
Ian Kennedy got five years and $70MM from the Royals last offseason, and Nova’s identical reported asking price seems to have been determined with that deal in mind. It seems unlikely Nova will actually get that much, even in a weak market, since Kennedy had a much longer track record both in number and quality of innings pitched. Nova could get close, though, perhaps receiving a similar average annual value to Kennedy with a slightly shorter commitment. There’s plenty of precedent for free agent starting pitchers in the upper middle of a typical market getting four years at an AAV of $12MM-$14MM. We’re guessing Nova will receive four years and $52MM, which would put his contract in line with recent deals for Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pitching Rumors: Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Rockies, Padres
The Dodgers have real interest in pursuing free agent reliever Aroldis Chapman, Andy McCullough suggests (Twitter links). While we’ve heard plenty of indication that the organization also intends to make a bid on its own departing closer, Kenley Jansen, it appears that the fireballing lefty also represents a viable target for one of the game’s biggest spenders — despite the fact that the club jettisoned a deal to acquire Chapman last winter when domestic violence allegations arose. While Los Angeles has spent very little on its bullpen since hiring Andrew Friedman to run its baseball operations, the club obviously saw the value of a shut-down arm while leaning heavily on Jansen during the postseason. The big question remains just how hard the Dodgers will push, but their presence in the market for the two best-available relievers is certainly a boon for the earning power of both.
- Meanwhile, the Cubs are giving signals that they may be less inclined to pay top dollar for an established relief arm, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports. While the organization gave up a haul for Chapman at the trade deadline, and featured him frequently en route to a World Series win, Chicago would seemingly prefer to think outside the box to find its next dominant relief arm. GM Jed Hoyer spoke of a “targeted” approach to the roster, with the club set to “explore every avenue” in finding a replacement for Chapman. He cited two prominent examples of pitchers who failed as starters but later emerged in a late-inning role. “You never know who that guy’s going to be,” said Hoyer. “If you stop thinking that way, you have no chance to find that guy. You always want to think like: ‘OK, who is going to be that next Andrew Miller? Who’s going to be that next Wade Davis?'” As Mooney notes, Carl Edwards Jr. represents a possible internal option to take high-leverage opportunities, along with former closer Hector Rondon. Beyond that, Hoyer says, the team will “be looking at a lot of ways to acquire pitching” and will “explore every avenue” to add arms this winter.
- That somewhat unconventional approach has long been pursued by the Pirates, and Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review looks at the team’s rotation prospects this winter. Pittsburgh’s reclamation strategy has paid dividends time and again, but that may be tougher than ever with a thin market and perhaps added competition from other organizations who have seen how the Bucs’ approach can work. GM Neal Huntington emphasized that, while a veteran pitcher would “take[] some pressure off,” it remains hard for his small-budget organization to commit the years and dollars needed to compete on the open market. He stressed the need to continue pushing the development of the team’s homegrown starters, and certainly there are a variety of options already on hand, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth analyzed in taking stock of the Pirates’ offseason outlook. As he notes, and Huntington acknowledges, the club could consider bolstering that group by dealing from its fairly robust array of position-player talent.
- Another organization that could look to the trade market for starters is the Braves, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter), Atlanta has spoken with the Rays about staff ace Chris Archer, who is one of the game’s top starting pitching assets (even after a disappointing 2016 season) due in large part to his youth and highly appealing contract. That’s notable, but hardly should be read as an indication that the Braves will push the pedal to the floor for a top arm. GM John Coppolella stressed that the club is looking for value in all regards, and will continue to be opportunistic rather than stretching to add a premium starter. “Starting pitching is the main need that we have, and we want it badly,” he said. “That being said, if the numbers get crazy or the years get too long [for free agents], we’ll just stick with what we have. Or we’ll look to the trade market for short-term guys. … We’re going to look for value, whether it’s starting pitching, catching, whatever. If the market spirals too far out of control, we’ll just move on to other areas of need. Maybe build a killer bullpen and add to [an area that is a strength already.”
- Though the Rockies have received promising returns from their own rotation of late, the team isn’t satisfied with its pitching entering the winter, GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Certainly, that could take the form of a focus on a bullpen that struggled last year, though perhaps a move for a starter can’t be ruled out either. Bridich said that the club is “going to have to take some risks” this offseason and will seek to “improve the impactful pitchers we have.”
- The NL West-rival Padres also seem primed to take some risks on pitching (and in other areas), and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the organization was one of many to send scouts to watch free agent reliever Greg Holland in his recent showcase. San Diego has done well recently in finding undervalued assets for the bullpen, and a targeted bet on someone like Holland could make sense — though he’ll presumably draw wide interest given his lofty established ceiling. Meanwhile, the Pads may also consider trade offers for their own controlled arms; Lin mentions Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, and Brandon Maurer as pitchers who have “consistently drawn outside interest.” Though GM A.J. Preller didn’t exactly suggest that the team would be looking to deal, he acknowledged that clubs have come calling. “There’s definitely been clubs checking in on our bullpen,” he said. “They saw the jobs those guys did this year.”
Latest On Red Sox’ Offseason Plans
The Red Sox are plotting a more patient and adaptable offseason than they undertook last year, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. But that’s not to say that the club won’t ultimately push to add veteran pieces at areas of need — particularly, the DH slot and the back of the bullpen.
Boston “badly” wants to sign outfielder/DH Carlos Beltran, a source tells ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber. That certainly seems to elevate the team’s previously reported interested in the veteran switch-hitter. Lauber does note that whether Beltran ends up at Fenway could depend upon whether he’s looking for multiple years, so it seems that the club isn’t quite in at all costs, but it’s clear at this point that he’s a real target.
Notably, because he wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer, the Red Sox would not be required to part with a draft pick to sign Beltran. He ran up a .295/.337/.513 batting line in his age-39 season, so it seems there’s still gas left in the tank, and Boston is evidently interested in pursuing an option that won’t require a significant, multi-year commitment.
Edwin Encarnacion has previously been tied to the Red Sox, but it has never quite been apparent just how interested the club is in pursuing a player who is arguably the best hitter available this winter in free agency. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that a four or five-year deal for him “seems unlikely.”
Though there’s plainly a match on paper, the team’s own assessment of Encarnacion’s long-term outlook and its own future balance sheets certainly could suggest a different approach. Indeed, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported recently, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombroski spoke of factoring in “affordability,” the desire not to tie up the DH slot for too long, and the presence of internal options (now and in the future) that could fill the role.
There are other names to consider, too. Abraham suggests that Kendrys Morales could be a fit, and indeed we’ve heard that connection recently as well. Like Beltran, Morales is a switch hitter, though at 33 years of age he figures to command multiple years. Matt Holliday might also represent a match, Abraham notes. Like Beltran, he’s still capable of spending some time in the outfield, which aids with lineup flexibility. But Holliday’s offensive output dipped last year — his age-36 campaign — and he missed a major chunk of the second half with a broken thumb after already experiencing an injury-limited 2015.
Turning to the bullpen, Dombrowski labeled a set-up man a priority for his organization. “We have some guys that we really like in our pen. None of them have really pitched the eighth inning,” Dombrowski said. “They probably have the skills and abilities to do it, but that would probably be first and foremost a thing of focus for us.”
While the team is optimistic that Carson Smith will return to be a factor in 2017, Dombrowski says that he won’t count on him being available for the first few months, as Britton reports. That keeps a focus on finding a primary set-up option, which Dombrowski saying the club is likely “looking for one guy at this point,” as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. It seems unlikely that veteran Red Sox free agents Koji Uehara or Brad Ziegler will be that guy, Bradford notes, with Dombrowski suggesting tepid interest in both players.
Meanwhile, the veteran executive strongly suggested that southpaw Fernando Abad will be tendered a contract, which suggests that the club won’t have need for another lefty. Though the veteran struggled at times after his mid-season trade to Boston, he represents a solid value at MLBTR’s projected $2MM arbitration salary point.
It doesn’t seem that there’s likely to be much change in the rotation, either, with the team expending to retain its half-dozen starting options rather than seeking to add or deal from that depth. “You’re always open to anything, but we’re really looking at bringing all six to spring training at this time,” said Dombrowski.
Finally, while the catching situation appears to have some uncertainty, it doesn’t seem that the Red Sox are targeting any modifications there at the moment. The market doesn’t admit of many solutions anyway, and Boston does have options. As Lauber reports, Dombrowski says that Sandy Leon will enter the spring as the presumptive regular behind the dish. Presumably, Christian Vazquez is in line for reserve duties, though Dombrowski added that the organization still sees Blake Swihart as a catcher — despite the fact that he played in the outfield for a large chunk of 2016.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers are coming off a 95-win season, and they’ll return plenty of impact players to a 2017 team that could be strong yet again. This offseason will be a challenge for GM Jon Daniels, though, as he attempts to augment a roster that has a number of glaring needs.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Prince Fielder, 1B: $96MM through 2020 (Fielder will remain on disabled list, with an insurance policy covering $9MM per year and the Tigers covering $6MM per year for the rest of his contract)
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $88MM through 2022 (plus 2023 club/vesting option)
- Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $82MM through 2020
- Cole Hamels, SP: $51MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout on 2019 club/vesting option)
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: $36MM through 2018
- Yu Darvish, SP: $11MM through 2017
- Martin Perez, SP: $6.85MM through 2017 (includes $2.45MM buyout on 2018 club option)
- Tony Barnette, RP: $2MM through 2017 (includes $250K buyout on 2018 club option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
- Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
- Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
- A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
- Jeremy Jeffress (3.077) – $2.9MM
- Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: Scheppers, Griffin
Contract Options
- Derek Holland, SP: $11MM or $1.5MM buyout (should the Rangers exercise the option, they’ll also have an option for 2018)
- Jonathan Lucroy, C: $5.25MM or $250K buyout
Free Agents
Rangers Depth Chart; Rangers Payroll Information
For a very successful team, the 2016 Rangers had more than their share of problems. Their bullpen was a disaster early in the season. Their starting rotation was very weak beyond Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and (when he was healthy) Yu Darvish. And, of course, 2016 saw the sad end of the career of Prince Fielder, in whom the Rangers had made a significant investment. Overall, the team scored 765 runs and allowed 757, for a Pythagorean record of just 82-80. The Rangers certainly could contend again in 2017, and they’ll surely approach their offseason with that in mind. But their roster currently looks a bit closer to that of a problematic 82-80 team than a 95-win juggernaut.
Following a midseason trade for Jonathan Lucroy, the Rangers have plenty of catching help. Lucroy’s $5.25MM option was a trivially easy decision after Lucroy batted .276/.345/.539 for them down the stretch. (That Lucroy, who is now 30 and has nearly seven years of service time, will still be paid just $5.25MM next season is one of the game’s great mysteries.) Lucroy will have a capable backup in Robinson Chirinos, who still will only receive a projected $2.1MM despite producing 2.3 fWAR in less than a season’s worth of at bats over the last two years.
Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre will man the leftmost three infield positions, with the still-youthful Jurickson Profar available to back up any of those three spots as needed. Those positions will require little attention this offseason. But the same can’t be said of first base, where the Rangers are set to lose Mitch Moreland. Moreland is now 31, is coming off an underwhelming .233/.298/.422 season, and has merely been a good complementary player even in his best years. The Rangers would probably be best served simply to let him walk.
They have an obvious replacement for Moreland, too, in Joey Gallo, a prolific minor league slugger who played 32 games at first base at Triple-A Round Rock last season. (Gallo recently injured his hamstring playing winter ball in Venezuela, but there’s no indication that injury will affect his 2017 season.) Gallo’s power is tantalizing — he’s hit at least 26 home runs in all of the last four seasons. He does, however, come with significant downside risk, since he only batted .240 for Round Rock last year, has struck out a ton even in the minors, and has hit just .173 through 153 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that the Rangers have indicated that they’d prefer to have him start 2017 in the minors. Ryan Rua provides the Rangers with another option at first, and could come in particularly handy since he bats righty while Gallo is a lefty. But his track record is somewhat limited as well. Profar is another possibility at first base.
The Rangers are also thin at DH, since Carlos Beltran is set to depart. Re-signing Beltran (who wants to keep playing next season) would be an obvious move to improve at DH, but it wouldn’t have the benefit of also providing insurance at first. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests one solution would be a reunion with Mike Napoli, who bats right-handed and has had a solid year with Cleveland. A more up-market target could be Edwin Encarnacion, whose big bat would be an exciting fit in Texas and who has already been connected to the Rangers. In any case, acquiring one player for first base or DH would seem to be nearly mandatory.
With Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara, the corner outfield appears set. But it’s unclear who will stand between them, with both Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez eligible for free agency. Either of them could return. Desmond appears to be the higher priority of the two, although the team has expressed interest in re-signing Gomez as well. The Rangers extended Desmond a qualifying offer, and he would be wise to decline it, his misadventures with the qualifying offer last offseason notwithstanding. He’s still just 31 and produced 3.3 fWAR while earning praise for his clubhouse presence, so he seems like a good bet to land a hefty multi-year deal this winter. Gomez, too, should be sought after on the free agent market, thanks to his turnaround following his release by the Astros. Expect the Rangers to be in touch with both players until or unless they sign elsewhere.
Texas will need to balance its issues in center field and 1B/DH with its needs in the rotation. Hamels, Darvish and Perez will be back, but there’s flux beyond that. The Rangers paid Derek Holland a $1.5MM buyout rather than exercising his $11MM option. Holland’s last strong, healthy season was 2013, and he’s a different player than he was then — his fastball velocity has dropped about two MPH, and his offspeed stuff isn’t nearly as effective. He only recently turned 30, but he produced just a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in yet another injury-riddled season in 2016. While he could theoretically return, the Rangers surely hope to do better.
They also face the departure of 37-year-old Colby Lewis, who’ll return to the open market. Like Holland, Lewis had health problems this season, missing two months due to a lat issue. Perhaps the Rangers could bring Lewis back on another cheap one-year deal, but he’s showing serious signs of decline, despite a 3.71 ERA last season. His strikeout rate fell for the third straight season to 5.6 K/9, coinciding with a velocity drop to around the 87-MPH range. He also remains a fly-ball pitcher, making him somewhat of an awkward fit for the Rangers’ home ballpark.
The Rangers’ other rotation options are dubious. A.J. Griffin deserves congratulations for pitching 119 innings in 2016 after missing two years to injury, but he also produced just a 5.07 ERA, with peripherals to match; he’ll likely be non-tendered. Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez likewise showed little in their limited opportunities. Top prospect Yohander Mendez looks like he could eventually develop into a solid lefty rotation option, but given his very limited experience above Class A+, he should probably start 2017 in Triple-A.
That means the Rangers will head into this offseason looking for at least one starter. As has been amply discussed here at MLBTR, the free agent market for starting pitching is weak. That doesn’t mean the Rangers won’t pursue higher-ranked pitchers in a market topped by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, and surprising entrant Jason Hammel. But they’ll also likely check out the trade market, which they might favor anyway, since their current 2017 payroll (including Lucroy and several key arbitration-eligible players) already amounts to somewhere around $130MM.
Despite paying fairly hefty prospect prices in recent trades (particularly the pair of deals that netted Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Hamels and Jake Diekman in return for Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Cordell, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson and Matt Harrison), the Rangers have more than enough prospect depth to make a trade, thanks in part to their heavy spending in Latin America in recent years. One wonders, then, if there might be a trade match with the Padres — Friars GM A.J. Preller was previously a Rangers exec who played a key role in the franchise’s Latin spending, and he has Tyson Ross (who is currently recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome) to deal.
There are, of course, other interesting pitchers potentially available, including many with less problematic health records. And the Rangers could certainly aim to acquire a high-grade arm if they are open-minded about who they’re willing to deal. There have been no specific indications that the Rangers might consider trading Profar (and Daniels has said he envisions keeping him), but a willingness to include Profar in potential deals would surely pique the interest of clubs considering trading starting pitching who’d prefer major league pieces in return.
The Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2016, and the team was especially poor in the first half of the season, when Tom Wilhelmsen, Cesar Ramos, closer Shawn Tolleson and others struggled greatly. Texas relievers mostly recovered in the second half, though, and the bullpen looks to be in reasonably good shape going forward. Tolleson, long ago replaced at closer by Sam Dyson, has already been outrighted. Dyson, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman and Tony Barnette all pitched well this season and are slated to return, and Jeffress (an underrated part of the Lucroy trade) provides the Rangers with another controllable bullpen asset. Keone Kela, Dario Alvarez and Jose Leclerc also all showed at least some potential to blossom into reliable bullpen cogs at some point. As with many contending teams, the Rangers surely would not mind adding a bit of relief depth, and could reasonably consider pursuing some of the top-available closers. (If they were to add someone, they would probably prefer a righty.) But they now have enough talent that it doesn’t need to be a top priority.
Nonetheless, the Rangers appear headed toward a tricky offseason. They have plenty of talent, and figure to contend in 2017 yet again. But they also have a number of key positions yet to fill, and will face a tough free agent market with some apparent payroll constraints. Their offseason will be defined by how they navigate those choppy waters as they attempt to find center field, first base and starting pitching help.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Central Notes: Castro, Twins, Dozier, Miller, Morales
There was plenty of news on the baseball front today as the GM Meetings got the offseason going in earnest. If you’re interested in learning about the top free agents available, be sure to check out MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top fifty — with salary and signing predictions. And for those who’ve already given that a look, give a listen to the recent edition of The Ringer’s “The MLB Show” podcast with Ben Lindbergh and Michael Baumann, in which MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes joined to break down the coming hot stove season.
Here’s the latest from the AL Central:
- The Twins have expressed interest in catcher Jason Castro as the offseason gets underway, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Minnesota’s new-look front office will sit down with Castro’s representatives tomorrow at the GM Meetings, per the report. The 29-year-old Castro is a well-regarded pitch framer who delivers some power from the left side, though his limited on-base ability saps much of his offensive value. There figure to be quite a few teams with interest in the veteran backstop, as a number of organizations will be looking to shore up their mix behind the plate.
- As the Twins seek to build around a core of young talent that is largely already in place, the organization hopes to find some veteran pieces to supplement that group, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. Levine spoke of the need for “clubhouse ambassadors,” explaining that elder statesmen help get the best out of a team’s in-prime players. Precisely how this interest will be manifested in the team’s offseason plans remains to be seen, and major splashes can probably be ruled out, but it seems that Minnesota could look to supplement its roster via free agency.
- While Brian Dozier represents an excellent trade chip for the Twins, at least in theory, Berardino explains that it may not be as easy to achieve value for him as might be expected. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine both discussed the team’s best player in 2016, noting that despite his monster season, the second base position is well-stocked leaguewide. While there would certainly be interest in a player who Levine says is viewed “with a ton of respect” by the incoming brass, the Twins may not have an opportunity to start a bidding war for his services in hopes of finding an overwhelming return.
- The Indians did not acquire ace reliever Andrew Miller with thoughts of flipping him this winter, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said today, and the team doesn’t intend to change that approach now. (Via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, on Twitter.) Miller’s exploits are well-documented, and his market value already evident in the price that Cleveland paid to acquire him. While it is surely tempting for the team to consider seeking to recoup some of its investment to fill other needs, it seems that it will instead continue to deploy Miller as a high-leverage force.
- Unsurprisingly, Royals GM Dayton Moore said today that his club isn’t likely to do much of significance on the open market, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports. “I don’t look for us to be real aggressive with free agents,” he said. “Just because we’re not going to be in a position to add significant payroll — if any, at all, at this point.” Still, the team is interested in pursuing a reunion with Kendrys Morales after passing on a chance to make him a qualifying offer. That seems unlikely unless his market fails to develop — or if the team finds a way to make the salary fit.
Avila: Tigers “Open-Minded” On All Trade Scenarios
Tigers GM Al Avila said today that the club is willing to listen to offers on even its best-known veterans, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports. Still, Detroit doesn’t necessarily intend to put specific players on the market.
While the Tigers aren’t planning a “full-blown selloff by any means,” said Avila, they feel the need to “be open-minded in listening to what clubs may be interested in from us and what we can do with it.” That includes a willingness to entertain offers, should they come in, for such franchise staples as Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera (both of whom enjoy no-trade protection) — though Avila said “it would be in [the Tigers’] best interest if we could keep them and do everything that we need to do.”
What the team hopes to do, he reiterated, is embark upon a quest for youth, athleticism, and cost efficiency in its major league roster. But while that will be the new operating philosophy, the Tigers seemingly hope to accomplish a smooth transition rather than a drastic rebuild.
“Quite frankly, like I told ownership, it may not get done this winter,” said Avila. “As a matter of fact, it probably won’t get done this winter.”
Beyond Verlander and Cabrera, the Tigers have significant obligations on the books to aging (but still-productive) veterans such as Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez. The team also owes large sums to younger players like Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton, both of whom are coming off of less-than-inspiring first seasons in Detroit.
Perhaps the club’s single most obvious trade piece, though, is right fielder J.D. Martinez, who is just 29 years of age and has been one of the game’s premier power hitters over the last three seasons. While Martinez could theoretically profile as an extension target, given his age and output, Avila made clear that the organization isn’t interested in pursuing new contracts with any players this winter, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets. With Martinez slated to reach the open market next winter, he could be a major chip for the Tigers in the coming months — or, perhaps, at the summer trade deadline.
Socrates Brito Undergoes Surgery For Broken Hamate
Diamondbacks outfielder Socrates Brito underwent surgery today after being diagnosed with a broken hamate bone, the club announced. He suffered the injury preparing for winter ball, per the release.
Brito, 24, is expected to play a significant role in Arizona’s outfield mix in the near future. There’s little reason to believe the injury will prevent him from returning to the majors in 2017, though the lost development opportunities — and, perhaps, a delayed start to Spring Training — certainly harm his hopes of cracking the roster out of camp.
Entering the 2016 season, Brito was seen by many as a breakout candidate. He had shown well in a brief debut the season prior, and an opportunity opened when A.J. Pollock went down late in the spring. But Brito ended up taking only 97 MLB plate appearances, posting an anemic .179/.196/.358 batting line.
Still, the Snakes’ new front office surely still hopes that Brito can make an impact at some point in the coming year. He did put up a useful .294/.322/.439 slash in his 317 Triple-A plate appearances, and he’s viewed as a quality defender.
Free Agent Profile: Mark Trumbo
The move to hitter-friendly Camden Yards took Mark Trumbo‘s slugging to a whole new level in 2016, and now we’ll see how his homer-centric game will play on the open market.
Strengths/Pros
In a word, power. Trumbo’s 47 home runs led the majors last season, as he became just the fourth Oriole in history (following Frank Robinson, Brady Anderson and Chris Davis) to go deep at least 47 times in a single season. Trumbo’s .533 slugging percentage last year easily topped his career .458 SLG from 2010-15, though it certainly wasn’t his only big year at the plate, having averaged 32 homers per year with the Angels from 2011-13.
His huge leap in production earned him American League Comeback Player Of The Year honors, though Trumbo was maybe somewhat of a curious choice given that his 2015 numbers weren’t bad. He was also named to the All-Star team, the second time he had received a nod to the Midseason Classic during his career.
Trumbo’s career splits headed into this year indicated that he hit lefties a bit better than righties, which is normal for a right-handed hitter. Curiously, 2016 saw Trumbo deliver some massive reverse splits — he posted a .932 OPS in 501 PA against right-handed pitching but just a .608 OPS against southpaws. This one-year gap was large enough that it effectively balanced his career splits, so on paper, Trumbo has been equally productive against all pitchers over his career. Trumbo’s BABIP luck against righties (.316) wasn’t nearly as glaring as his lack of fortune against lefties (.167), so it could be argued there’s a better chance Trumbo’s numbers against left-handers improve in 2017 than there is of him coming substantially back to earth against righties.
Trumbo is often considered a defensive liability, and indeed, his career UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals as a corner outfielder are pretty ugly. In his only two seasons as a primary first baseman, however, Trumbo’s glovework was more than solid — +9 DRS and 5.2 UZR/150 in 2011 and +2 DRS and 10.5 UZR/150 in 2013. His defensive numbers at first have been below-average over the last three years, though he has only 566 innings at the position in that time, as Trumbo was largely blocked by Davis in Baltimore and Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona.
If used at first, Trumbo’s metrics indicate that he could provide notable value at the position. If a team has needs at both first and in either corner outfield, Trumbo could handle left or right as long as the team was willing to sacrifice fielding for power. Of course, American League teams can bypass defensive questions altogether by pursuing Trumbo as a designated hitter.
Weaknesses/Cons
Trumbo is almost the definition of the all-or-nothing slugger, capable of bashing homers at an outstanding rate but not bringing much else to the table offensively. His .256 batting average and .316 on-base percentage last year were only mild increases over his career averages in both categories. Not only is Trumbo not getting on base, he’s also making a lot of unproductive outs — he ranks tenth among all hitters in strikeouts (848) and 14th in pop-ups (124) since the start of the 2011 season.
Between the lack of baserunning, defense and all-around hitting, Trumbo’s value is limited even despite his slugging prowess. His 1.6 bWAR in 2016 was the lowest of any player who had ever delivered a 47-homer season.
Part of the issue was that Trumbo did most of his damage before the All-Star break and badly tailed off in the last half of the season. While he kept up the power throughout the year, Trumbo hit .288/.341/.582 before the break and just .214/.284/.470 afterwards.
Health-wise, Trumbo has suffered stress fractures in both of his feet over the last five years. His break in his right foot occurred near the end of the 2011 season and didn’t cause him to miss much time, though he was limited to just 88 games in 2014 thanks to a fracture in his left foot. Trumbo also had a plantar fasciitis issue that same year, which could’ve possibly factored into the injury. He has been pretty durable over the last two years, however, and a move to regular first base or DH duties would make things much easier on his feet.
The Orioles have extended Trumbo a qualifying offer, and assuming he rejects it, his new team will have to surrender their highest-eligible draft pick in order to sign him. (Or, if he goes back to Baltimore, they’ll give up the chance to add a compensatory pick.) Trumbo’s ability to thump will definitely attract attention, though some clubs will balk at giving up a draft pick to sign a player with Trumbo’s limitations, preferring to chase other power options available at a lower price and without QO compensation attached.
Personal
Trumbo, born in Anaheim in January 1986, was drafted out of high school by his hometown Angels in the 18th round in 2004. He got himself on the prospect radar with a 32-homer campaign in high A-ball and Double-A in 2008 and then a 36-homer/.945 OPS season in Triple-A in 2010 earned him his first big league promotion that September.
When Kendrys Morales infamously broke his leg jumping on home plate during a walkoff homer celebration, his extended rehab gave Trumbo the Angels’ first base job at the start of the 2011 season. This ended up being a season-long assignment once complications from Morales’ injury sidelined him for the entire year, and Trumbo rose to the occasion by hitting .254/.291/.477 with 29 home runs over 573 PA, a performance that earned him a runner-up finish to Jeremy Hellickson in AL Rookie Of The Year voting.
Albert Pujols‘ arrival in Los Angeles began Trumbo’s position carousel, as the Halos tried him in left, right and even a brief dalliance at third base, though Trumbo ended up spending a lot of time back at first in 2013 due to Pujols’ injury problems. Ultimately, the Angels saw him as an expendable piece, trading him to the D’Backs in December 2013 as part of a very notable three-team deal with the White Sox that also sent Adam Eaton to Chicago and both Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs to Anaheim.
Injuries and some ill-conceived usage as a left fielder led to an unmemorable stint in Arizona, and Trumbo found himself on the move again in June 2015, this time sent to Seattle as part of a six-player trade. This deal ended up looking good for the D’-backs (Welington Castillo has gone on to become their regular catcher) and it seems like the Mariners came up short in another Trumbo deal when they swapped the slugger and C.J. Riefenhauser to the O’s last December for Steve Clevenger.
It was in Baltimore that Trumbo finally seemed to unlock the potential that so many other clubs had been hoping for him to find on their watch. One might argue that Trumbo could be a candidate to accept the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer from the Orioles due to his poor second half, lack of a well-rounded game and the possibility of the QO hurting his market, but I disagree. If anything, perhaps Trumbo will be more eager for the security of a long-term deal given how he’s gone through three trades in as many years.
Market
There are several other first base/right field/DH types on the free agent market this year, though Trumbo has a few advantages over most of his peers. Trumbo is entering his age-31 season, which makes him markedly younger than several of the other bats who share a similar heavy-hitting but defensively-lacking profile. Trumbo’s representatives from Wasserman can argue that their client is a true everyday player, unlike many other hitters who carry significant platoon splits.
While Trumbo takes pride in his effort in the outfield, he himself noted last winter that he is a better defensive option at first than he is in right. He’ll likely continue to market himself as an outfield candidate since multi-position versatility is an attractive commodity, though one wonders if Trumbo himself will prefer to seek out first base opportunities rather than potentially suffer through another value-deflating year chasing fly balls.
Edwin Encarnacion is the biggest name in the first base/DH market this winter, and it stands to reason that teams who either miss out on Encarnacion or couldn’t afford him in the first place could turn to Trumbo as an alternative. The Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox or Astros are potential fits, as are maybe the Royals as a DH-only option if Trumbo’s price tag significantly drops. A National League team would have to believe that Trumbo can handle an everyday first base role, and if so, that opens the door to the Marlins as possible candidates. The Rockies could also be a fit, though one wonders if they’d be willing to give up the 11th overall pick in the draft for any qualifying offer free agent, Trumbo included.
A return to the Orioles isn’t out of the question, as both Trumbo and the team have expressed a mutual interest in continuing their relationship. The O’s need help in both corner spots and could offer Trumbo a full-time DH slot if Pedro Alvarez is not re-signed. On the other hand, as I noted in my Orioles Offseason Outlook piece, Baltimore already possesses quite a few power hitters with swing-and-miss tendencies, plus payroll could be an issue. Dan Duquette had has a knack for picking up sluggers at a low price only to watch them blossom at Camden Yards, so he might seek out another undervalued bat rather than pay a significant price to retain Trumbo.
Expected Contract
While Trumbo certainly has his flaws, he somewhat strikes me as a player who has simply yet to find his ideal role. He spent much of his early career in pitcher-friendly ballparks in Anaheim and Seattle, and teams have consistently miscast him as an outfielder when it seems like he would be at least a passable first baseman. A good fit is often as much about hiding shortcomings as it is about emphasizing strengths, and Trumbo could very well continue to deliver 40-plus homers if he lands on the right team with the right idea about how to use him.
As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted in a recent column, however, slugging-only players like Trumbo could be impacted by the simple fact that Major League Baseball experienced a huge spike in home runs in 2016. Power is seemingly no longer the rare commodity it was even one offseason ago, though obviously, 47-homer power is still very hard to find. Even with the qualifying offer and the glut of other bats on the market, MLB Trade Rumors sees Trumbo landing a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM this offseason.
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner/USA Today Sports Images
Yoenis Cespedes Rumors: Mets, Yankees, Nationals
We’ve heard that the Mets aren’t particularly interested in another protracted dalliance with outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, with GM Sandy Alderson saying that the team would prefer to know its course with regard to the superstar before the end of the Winter Meetings in early December. That’s still a month away, of course, but it certainly seems reasonable to expect that Cespedes’s market will move more quickly this offseason than it did last. Still, there’s no single, clear suitor (beyond the incumbent Mets) for his services, so there’s plenty of room for the market to develop — with trades and other signings potentially having a role in how it all shakes out.
Here are a few notes on Cespedes from the GM Meetings:
- There’s no question that the Mets want to retain Cespedes, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Alderson said today that the team would prefer to sign him, “all things considered,” though the question remains just how much cash (and how many years) the organization will put on the table. New York has already reached out to Cespedes’s camp to begin talks, as he weighs a qualifying offer that he’s certain to reject. “Oh yeah, we’ve reached out to him,” Alderson said. “We expect to have more conversations with them in the next few days. His agent will be out here somewhere. I’m sure you’ll talk to him. It all remains to be seen what direction it takes.”
- Somewhat intriguingly, there’s another New York team that has expressed interest, though it’s far from clear how serious a pursuit should be expected. The Yankees have spoken with Cespedes’s representatives at CAA, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, though GM Brian Cashman said that the expectation is the team will utilize internal options in the outfield. And the Yanks have also reached out to a variety of other potential free agent targets, including departing Blue Jays power hitter Jose Bautista. All told, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any particular reason to think the Bronx Bombers are readying to move on either veteran slugger, though Cashman did note that “things could change if we move money.”
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo also fielded questions on Cespedes, saying that the outfielder “improves any team he plays for,” as Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to report. Rizzo noted that the club feels comfortable with Bryce Harper in center and Trea Turner at short, which could open the door to another pursuit of Cespedes — who spurned the Nats last winter to take a deal with the Mets that allowed him to return to the market this winter. As Sherman notes, the Nationals have strategic reasons to drive up the bidding on Cespedes, even if they aren’t truly keen on spending big to add him, but it also seems clear that the organization has a realistic interest in pursuing him at the right price.