Submit Your Questions For The MLBTR Mailbag
We’ll roll out another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag this evening. The most recent edition saw Jeff Todd field questions on Jurickson Profar, the Phillies, Mitch Moreland‘s trade value, Jonathan Papelbon‘s future and Boston’s search for a front-line starter.
If you have question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Sheer volume will prevent us from getting to every question, of course, though readers can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively.
Three Former Major Leaguers Sign In KBO
Former Major Leaguers Michael Bowden and Hector Gomez have signed with teams in the Korea Baseball Organization, according to a report from Yonhap News’ Jee-ho Yoo. Additionally, Naver Sports’ Ji-hyun Kim reports that former Braves right-hander Sugar Ray Marimon has signed with the KT Wiz of the KBO.
Bowden, 29 hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2013 with the Cubs. He has a lifetime 4.51 ERA in 133 2/3 innings in the Major Leagues but enjoyed a very strong season split between the Triple-A affiliates for the Twins and Orioles, logging a combined 2.63 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 123 innings of work. The Twins had interest in retaining the former Top 100 prospect, tweets 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson, but instead he’ll head to the Doosan Bears for a guaranteed $650K, per an announcement from the Bears. Bowden is a client of Turner Gary Sports.
Gomez, 27, will also receive a one-year, $650K deal to play in the KBO, joining the SK Wyverns, per another team announcement. Gomez picked up 134 plate appearances for the Brewers this season but batted .181/.212/.323 in that time with a homer and 11 doubles. Gomez played second base, third base, shortstop and left field with Milwaukee this season and is a career .298/.341/.512 hitter at the Triple-A level.
The 27-year-old Marimon made his Major League debut with the Braves this season, pitching to a 7.36 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. The Colombian right-hander has experienced far greater success in Triple-A, where he owns a 3.44 ERA with 6.3 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 164 2/3 innings. Per the Naver report above, he’ll receive $600K guaranteed with the Wiz, who were an expansion team in 2015. Marimon is represented by Chris Fanta of Pro Talent Sports Group.
KBO clubs can roster three foreign players, one of whom must be a position player, per league rules. The Wiz were granted four foreign players for the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to their status as an expansion club. Yoo notes that the Wyverns retained American left-hander Chris Seddon ($500K) and right-hander Merrill Kelly ($750K) to round out their international allotment but did not re-sign outfielder Andrew Brown despite a nice first season in 2015. Seddon struggled to a 4.99 ERA in 74 innings with the Wyverns this season but has previously excelled there, logging a 2.98 mark in 187 1/3 innings in 2013. Kelly posted a 4.13 ERA in 181 innings for the Wyverns in 2015 — the first KBO season for the former Rays farmhand. Brown hit .261/.360/.496 with 28 homers in 539 plate appearances with the Wyverns — numbers that are slightly down from his lifetime production at Triple-A.
Quick Hits: Cuba, Zobrist, Dodgers, Gallardo, Tribe
For a rundown of some of the top Cuban talents who could soon be on their way to Major League Baseball, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez lists several Cuban players who are full free agents and some who are subject to the July 2 international signing limits. Some of the free agents have yet to be officially declared as such due to paperwork, including righty Yaisel Sierra, who is considered to be the top Cuban player available on the open market this offseason. Here’s some more from around baseball…
- The Mets are one of many teams to contact Ben Zobrist‘s agent but the Yankees don’t appear to be in the running, according to Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post. The Yankees aren’t willing to pay what is likely to be a pretty significant price tag for Zobrist considering the number of teams interested in his services, and are more apt to upgrade their roster through trades rather than major free agent signings. The Mets, meanwhile, would use Zobrist to replace Daniel Murphy at second, and also give him some time in the outfield.
- Dodgers co-owner Todd Boehly says his team’s payroll will drop from its $300MM threshold in 2015 to much closer to the $200MM level, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. The vast Dodger payrolls of the first few years under the Guggenheim group’s ownership were meant to ensure the team could stay competitive while rebuilding the farm system, and once this young talent starts to emerge, the spending will drop. Boehly thinks “sustainable is more like the league average [payroll], plus some, or plus a lot.” As Shaikin notes, this still leaves the Dodgers with the flexibility to maintain a payroll at or near the luxury tax level every year.
- Bobby Witt, Yovani Gallardo‘s agent, discussed his client’s free agency with Jim Memolo and Brad Lidge of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter links). Gallardo is looking for a long-term deal, Witt said, which is why he rejected the Rangers’ one-year qualifying offer. Witt said that a market for his client has yet to really develop and it may take time until the pitchers at the top of the market (i.e. David Price and Zack Greinke) pick their next teams.
- In their end-of-season discussions, the Indians briefly considered using Jason Kipnis in the outfield next season with Jose Ramirez taking over at second, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. The team abandoned the idea, however, since Kipnis is just too valuable at the keystone. Cleveland is in dire need of outfield help and may need to make a big trade to fill the void, Pluto argues.
- More Indians outfield possibilities are discussed by Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer as part of a reader mailbag, though Hoynes doubts the Tribe is quite ready to trade one of its highly-touted starters for an everyday outfielder. Michael Brantley‘s status will be a big factor, as if it looks like his injury rehab will keep him out longer than expected, Cleveland may have no choice but to trade a pitcher or sign a notable free agent.
- The Phillies should trade Ken Giles while his value is at its highest, Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer opines. Giles isn’t even eligible for arbitration until 2018, so he carries much more cost-effective and long-term value than other notable closers on the trade market like Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Papelbon or Mark Melancon. A rebuilding team like the Phillies, Kaplan argues, has little need for a top closer.
2015-16 Offseason Outlook Series
The MLBTR staff has been hard at work on our annual Offseason Outlook series. This post will be updated to include links to all the completed articles, and will be available under MLBTR Features on the right-hand sidebar on the desktop version of the site.
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Giants Interested In Extending Brandon Crawford
The Giants will look into signing shortstop Brandon Crawford to a long-term extension this offseason, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (Insider subscription required). The 28-year-old Crawford is entering his second winter of arbitration, and MLBTR projects he’ll earn $5.7MM in 2016 — a nice bump from his $3.175MM salary last season.
Of course, Crawford certainly earned himself a healthy raise in the wake of breakout 2015 campaign. The shortstop had earned a reputation as an all-glove, no-hit player over his first four seasons, though he had been quietly improving at the plate each year; Crawford even posted a 103 wRC+ in 2014, his first above-average year of run creation. Still, few expected Crawford to suddenly hit 21 homers with a .256/.321/.462 slash line over 561 plate appearances.
While the batting average and OBP were only mild increases over Crawford’s 2011-14 numbers, Crawford had only 27 career homers and a career .359 slugging percentage heading into 2015. The combination of this potent bat and Crawford’s best defensive year yet (as per the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics) led to a 4.7 fWAR season, a total topped by only 23 players in baseball last season.
It should be noted that Crawford did much of his hitting damage in the first two months of last season, and while he generally kept his power up through the summer, the rest of his numbers fell. As well, aside from an increase in his swings at pitches in the strike zone, his hitting metrics weren’t appreciatively different from his career norms, so it could be that this inflated home run rate will be hard for Crawford to maintain. A shortstop with 20-homer pop and strong defense carries a significant price tag, so the question of whether Crawford’s power is for real will surely be a major factor for what the Giants will offer the WMG client.
The MLBTR Extension Tracker reveals that most shortstops between 4-5 years of service time who signed extensions only took short-term deals that covered the rest of their arbitration years. (The two big exceptions were Troy Tulowitzki and Elvis Andrus, and we can safely assume that the Giants won’t offer anything close to either of those two mega-deals.) San Francisco is likely looking for a deal that covers Crawford’s two remaining arbitration years and at least one free agent year, probably two. MLB.com lists three shortstops within their list of the Giants’ top seven prospects, yet none of the trio (Christian Arroyo, Lucius Fox, Jalen Miller) is older than 20 and scouts are mixed on any of them sticking at short at the Major League level, so Crawford wouldn’t be blocking anyone.
Payroll flexibility shouldn’t be an issue for the team, as Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are the only players signed beyond 2017. One can assume Madison Bumgarner‘s 2018 team option will be picked up and the Giants may sign the ace to an extension of his own. San Francisco has also been linked to several of this winter’s top free agents in the rumor mill, so the club could also have at least one more big long-term deal on their books over the next few months.
Teams generally turn their attention to extensions once their major free agent shopping is over, so you can probably expect talks between Crawford and the Giants to pick up steam in January as the arbitration filing deadline approaches. The two sides could also settle on a one-year deal for 2016 and then work out an extension later in February or March.
Rays Notes: Boxberger, McGee, Asdrubal, Loney
Here’s the latest from Tropicana Field, as per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times…
- The Tigers are one of many teams who showed interest in Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger during the GM Meetings. (Topkin also mentions the Astros, whose interest in the duo was reported a few days ago.) The two relievers have drawn a lot of interest, yet Topkin observes that the Rays aren’t under any real pressure to make a deal now and could revisit trade talks at midseason if they don’t find a current offer to their liking. MLBTR projects McGee to earn $4.7MM in 2016 while Boxberger is still a year away from arbitration eligibility, so the Rays aren’t yet facing any financial burden from keeping both relievers. Detroit is known to be looking at both trades and free agency in order to upgrade their bullpen, so it’s no surprise that the Tigers would check in with Tampa.
- It’s not impossible that Asdrubal Cabrera returns to the Rays on a one-year contract, even with the newly-acquired Brad Miller in the fold. It helps that Miller and Logan Forsythe are both pretty versatile players, so the Rays could conceivably use both at several positions while Cabrera (or a similar veteran shortstop like Alexei Ramirez) gets the bulk of playing time at short.
- The Rays are willing to eat some of James Loney‘s $8MM salary to help facilitate a trade, which Topkin believes could help them swing a deal in a thin first base market. Topkin also suggests that if the Rays dealt a pitcher, they could insist on adding Loney as part of the trade package.
- Matt Moore ($5MM) or Drew Smyly ($3.9MM) could be the likeliest candidates to be moved if the Rays decided to deal another starter, Topkin opines, as both southpaws carry significant salaries for the low-payroll club. Even after trading Nate Karns to the Mariners, the Rays may have enough young arms to get away with moving another starter, and they could also add a low-cost veteran to add further depth.
- Topkin looks at some of the familiar names (including Daniel Nava, Rene Rivera, J.P. Arencibia) who could be cut from the Rays’ 40-man roster this week to make way for prospects to be protected in advance of the Rule 5 draft.
Cafardo’s Latest: Royals, Parra, Bradley, Hanley
The Royals feel that Ben Zobrist might re-sign with the team but Alex Gordon “is likely gone,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes in his weekly notes column. With a possible hole to fill in left field, Cafardo reports that the Royals are considering free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra. Kansas City is more concerned with defense than offense in replacing Gordon, so Parra’s hitting (which has never been his strong suit, apart from a BABIP-fueled outburst in the first half of 2015) may not be a major issue for the Royals. Here’s some more from Cafardo…
- The Royals, Cubs and Mariners were all reported to have interest in Jackie Bradley last week, and Cafardo adds the Mets and “perhaps the Nationals” to the list of teams checking in on the Red Sox outfielder. Despite all this trade buzz, Bradley may remain in Boston since baseball ops president Dave Dombrowski has long had interest in Bradley himself, even exploring acquiring him from the Sox when Dombrowski was the Tigers’ general manager. Dombrowski has already implied that the Sox may be through with big trades for young talent in the wake of shipping four prospects to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel, which would mean that Bradley could indeed be staying put at Fenway Park.
- An NL general manager doesn’t think the Red Sox can get through the 2016 season without parting ways with at least one of Hanley Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval. Dealing either for value looks to be near impossible since both players have large contracts and are coming off rough seasons, but “sometimes you have to cut your losses. A big-market team like Boston can do that,” the GM said. “They have to decide whether having those two players in their clubhouse, in what is otherwise a young, accountable clubhouse, is worth it. You don’t want players tearing down what you’re trying to build. So whatever method was used to acquire those players didn’t work. So now you have to have your own chemistry lesson and determine if you can live with those guys. I would think they’d try to move one or both.”
- Tigers GM Al Avila is upgrading the club’s analytics department from one full-time employee to three, as well as interns and some outside consultants.
- The Braves talked to Chris Iannetta‘s agents before re-signing A.J. Pierzynski to fill their need at catcher. Iannetta has been linked to the Mariners in recent days, though there have been conflicting reports as to exactly how close he is to joining the M’s.
Braves Notes: Freeman, Teheran, Markakis, McGuirk
Here’s the latest from Atlanta…
- Braves GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter links) that “we have not had any trade discussions on Freddie Freeman.” O’Brien also hears that the club hasn’t had any talks about Julio Teheran and that the Braves don’t intend to trade either player. Coppolella’s statement runs counter to a Ken Rosenthal report from earlier today claiming that Atlanta was shopping Freeman, Teheran and “everyone owed money,” in the words of one source. While the GM could be employing some gamesmanship, O’Brien believes (Twitter link) Coppolella’s denial could carry some weight, as he previously didn’t deny that Andrelton Simmons was being shopped prior to the shortstop being dealt to the Angels.
- In another tweet, O’Brien notes that he didn’t ask Coppolella whether or not Nick Markakis‘ name had surfaced in trade talks. O’Brien thinks the Orioles, Markakis’ former team, could be interested in bringing the right fielder back to Baltimore. It also wouldn’t surprise O’Brien if the Braves traded Cameron Maybin this offseason.
- As part of a wide-ranging interview with Phil W. Hudson of the Atlanta Business Chronicle (links to part one and part two), Braves chairman and CEO Terry McGuirk said that the club plans to raise payroll in response to the expected revenue increase from their new stadium. A top-10 payroll should be feasible, McGuirk said. He “won’t give you a timetable, but you will start seeing major jumps” by January 1, 2017. (The new stadium is expected to be ready for Opening Day of the 2017 season.)
- McGuirk and team president John Schuerholz began to see trouble brewing for the club during the winter of 2013 in regards to a lagging farm system, though they resisted making any major changes since the Braves were winning at the time. The collapse at the end of the 2014 season was “the catharsis” for the franchise to reload the minor league system that McGuirk notes was so instrumental to the Braves’ success in the 1990’s and 2000’s. I recommend reading all of Hudson’s interview, as it also contains comments from McGuirk about how the payroll is set, infrastructure and development of the new ballpark, corporate sponsorships and much more information about the business side of the Braves’ operations.
East Notes: Yankees, Marlins, Bour
Here’s a look at the AL and NL East..
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman understands the usefulness of dealing from a surplus in order to strengthen other areas, as Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News writes. Most recently, Cashman sent backup catcher John Ryan Murphy to the Twins for outfielder Aaron Hicks, who Cashman feels could become an everyday player. “We’ve just had a collection of catchers,” Cashman says. “It’s happenstance. You can trade from that area. The players get developed and some make it and some don’t. When you have that, it’s easier to consider the trade options to fill up another area of need. The players in your system are there for you to use at the major-league level or to acquire things you may lack.” McCarron also discusses 23-year-old Gary Sanchez, who could some day be Brian McCann‘s successor. Of course, he could also be traded some day to address a weakness, just like Murphy.
- The Marlins appear committed to first baseman Justin Bour, but they also want him to get in better shape, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Therefore, Miami will consider some inexpensive right-handed hitting platoon options this winter. Bour, 27, slashed .262/.321/.479 with 23 homers across 446 plate appearances in his rookie season.
- More from Jackson, who writes that the Marlins want to add two veteran starters in part because they don’t want to have to bank on a youngster like Justin Nicolino, Adam Conley or Jose Urena to be the fifth starter. Still, those younger pitchers will be given a chance to compete with a veteran for the No. 5 slot.
Rosenthal On Freeman, Padres, Kemp, Cubs
This afternoon, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports released a news-filled column with rumblings from around the league. The whole article is worth a read, but here’s a look at some of the highlights:
- The Braves are shopping first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to officials from three different clubs that have spoken with Rosenthal. One of Rosenthal’s sources added that the possibility of Freeman getting traded was “the talk of the [Arizona] Fall League” among scouts earlier this month. Freeman’s salary is set to rise from $12MM in 2016 to $20.5MM in ’17 and the Braves might not want to pay out those salaries as they look to rebuild. After trading shortstop Andrelton Simmons, it’s clear that the Braves are not too fearful of the fan backlash that comes from trading star players.
- Another official asserts that the Braves are “shopping everyone owed money.” That could mean that the likes of right-hander Julio Teheran, right fielder Nick Markakis, and center fielder Cameron Maybin are for sale. Earlier today, we learned that some folks within the Orioles organization would be open to a reunion with Markakis. After a down year, Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently wrote that there’s a “good chance” that he would be made available.
- Sources tell Rosenthal that the Braves “are talking to a number of…non-compensation free agents, including some veteran relievers.” Ultimately, Rosenthal writes, it’s hard to tell what the Braves’ goal is in 2016. In the end, the gameplan might be to sell off Freeman and Teheran, land even more prospects, and land a top choice in the 2017 draft.
- The Padres are shopping right-hander Tyson Ross and outfielder Matt Kemp, major league sources tell Rosenthal. Kemp is owed $86MM over the next four years and Rosenthal wonders aloud if the two players could be packaged together in order to facilitate a deal. Ross, 29 in April, is under club control for two more seasons. In 2015, he pitched to a 3.26 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 33 starts. Kemp, meanwhile, posted a .265/.312/.443 slash line that was below his career average with 23 homers in 2015 while playing poor defensively.
- Sources say that the Cubs will “at least explore” the trade interest they are getting in right fielder Jorge Soler and infielder Javier Baez, Rosenthal writes. Meanwhile, the Cubs do not intend to move third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell or left fielder Kyle Schwarber. If the Cubs were to move Soler or Baez, they would likely seek their pitching equivalent, meaning a player with similar service time and talent that’s roughly the same age.
- The Rays are getting bites on relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger, particularly after the Craig Kimbrel deal, according to sources. Furthermore, teams are also zeroing in on Rays starters.