MLB Trade Rumors

Juan Soto is officially a New York Met. The team announced the signing on Wednesday evening after the star outfielder passed his physical. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow at Citi Field. Soto shattered contract records as the Winter Meetings began on Sunday evening, agreeing to a stunning 15-year, $765MM deal. Soto would be able to opt out of the deal after the 2029 season, though the Mets can prevent that by triggering an escalator that raises his salaries by $4MM annually from 2030-39. If they do so, he’d make at least $805MM over the next decade and a half.

Soto receives a whopping $75MM signing bonus. That’ll be followed by successive $46.875MM salaries for the first two seasons. He’ll make $42.5MM in 2027 before the salaries jump back to $46.875MM for 2028-29. The deal calls for $46MM annually for the final ten years. After the 2029 season, the Mets will need to decide whether to push Soto’s salaries to $50MM per season. If they decline, he could opt out of the remaining decade and $460MM. Soto also gets a full no-trade clause and escalators based on his MVP finishes.

Brokered by the Boras Corporation, the 26-year-old Soto’s deal is the largest contract in the history of professional sports, blowing away not only the $461MM net present value of the deal Shohei Ohtani landed with the Dodgers last winter but even the $700MM sticker price Ohtani signed for before accounting for that deal’s record-breaking deferrals. Soto’s $51MM average annual value eclipses the record for MLB players, which was previously held by Ohtani, by a significant margin as well.

Soto is the game’s first true $500MM player, $600MM player, $700MM player, and $50MM-per-year player, all in one epic contract.  The deal calls to mind Boras’ ten-year, $252MM contract with the Rangers for Alex Rodriguez 24 years ago, announced at the Winter Meetings at the same Anatole Hotel in Dallas this one figures to be.

The Mets weren’t the only team willing to go to record-setting lengths to land Soto, as Heyman reports the Yankees’ final bid for the slugger clocked in at $760MM over 16 years. MassLive’s Sean McAdam, meanwhile, reports that the Red Sox offered Soto $700MM over 15 years. Each of those deals would have shattered all expectations entering the offseason; MLBTR predicted a 13 year, $600MM contract for Soto as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

The Soto bidding was long believed to be the first true litmus test on how Mets owner Steve Cohen, the wealthiest in the sport, would proceed in a bidding war for a must-have player. The sale from the Wilpon family to Cohen was finalized just over four years ago, and while we’ve seen the Mets spend aggressively along the way, they’ve yet to truly flex their full financial might in this manner. The Mets did not pursue Aaron Judge when he was a free agent two offseasons ago, nor did they seriously pursue Ohtani last winter. They were involved in Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market, reportedly even offering the same $325MM guarantee he received in Los Angeles, but the West Coast Dodgers were typically perceived to have a geographic advantage there.

With regard to Soto, the stage was set for a Yankees-Mets bidding war — with presumptive interest from other teams — the minute Soto was traded from San Diego to the Bronx last December. In the end, the outcome that Mets fans have pined for since Cohen bought the club and that Yankees have feared since Soto hit the market proved true: Cohen refused to be denied, putting forth an offer that even the most aggressive prognosticators wouldn’t have envisioned entering the offseason.

Cohen’s purchase of the Mets created enough unease among other owners that during the last wave of collective bargaining negotiations, a fourth tier of penalization was added to the luxury tax setup. Teams exceeding the tax threshold by more than $60MM would be taxed at an 80% rate in year one, a 90% rate if exceeding that mark for a second straight season and a whopping 110% rate for a third straight offense. Colloquially referred to as the “Cohen Tax,” that penalty was ultimately more of a speed bump than a true roadblock for the Mets. They’ll be a third-time payor in 2025 — and presumably for years to come thereafter, thanks largely to this contract.

It’s not quite as basic as saying Soto’s contract itself will be taxed at 110% (that’d be a $56.1MM annual hit), but he’ll naturally thrust the Mets into the Cohen Tax threshold on a near annual basis, assuming the Mets surround him with other high-end players. They’re already paying Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo annual salaries of $34.1MM and $20.5MM, respectively, through at least 2030. RosterResouce projects that the Mets’ luxury obligations now sit just north of $251MM.

That’s “only” $10MM over the $241MM threshold, but with Soto now in the fold there’s no reason to expect they’ll let up. The club still seems likely to make a corner infield addition, whether that be a reunion with Pete Alonso or perhaps the addition of a third baseman who could allow Vientos to move off of the hot corner going forward. Additionally, the Mets are known to be in the market for at least one more starting pitcher after previously adding Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas to their rotation alongside incumbent starters Kodai Senga and David Peterson. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club target relief help to supplement a bullpen that saw a number of key pieces including Phil Maton, Drew Smith, and Brooks Raley depart for free agency.

The Mets will have plenty of resources with which to make those additions. Even after Soto’s record-breaking deal, they’re still roughly $95MM away from last year’s $336MM payroll, and the aforementioned $251MM luxury ledger is more than $100MM shy of last year’s $358MM figure. Historic as the Soto agreement is, it’s more of a launching point than a capstone with regard to what will be a precedent-shattering offseason under Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns.

Soto’s free agency has been one of the most anticipated in MLB history. The phenom has seemingly been destined for a record-breaking deal ever since he declined a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals during the 2022 season. Given the $54MM Soto went on to earn in his last two arbitration years, the Nationals’ offer ultimately equated to $386MM for 13 free agent years, a figure that Soto nearly doubled tonight. Soto’s prescient decision on the Nationals’ offer prompted a trade to the Padres. Already a career 152 wRC+ hitter entering the 2021 season, he’s been even better since then with a .279/.423/.520 slash line that’s been good for a 161 wRC+.

The massive deal secured the Mets one of the most talented hitters in the sport. Soto had a platform season for the ages in 2024 after being traded from the Padres to the Yankees, slashing .288/.419/.569 (180 wRC+) in 157 games while belting 41 homers and walking (18.1%) more than he struck out (16.7%). In an era of increased strikeout rates, it’s not just Soto’s elite power but his otherworldly plate discipline that causes him to stick out from the crowd. He’s recorded more unintentional walks than strikeouts in each of the past five seasons and has led the majors in unintentional walks three times throughout his career.

Soto’s 769 career unintentional walks land him the No. 11 spot on the active leaderboard after just seven seasons in the majors. That sensational batting eye figures to allow Soto to age much better than players who get to their value through elite speed and defense, which surely helped make the Mets (and other interested clubs) more willing to shatter records in order to land Soto’s services.  Soto is so good at drawing walks that he has gained notoriety for his manner of taking a pitch, which sometimes prompts the Soto Shuffle.

It’s important to note that Soto made his MLB debut back in 2018 at just 19 years of age, allowing him to reach free agency at the rare age of 26. The best MLB superstars are occasionally paid through the age of 40, which in Soto’s case means the longest contract in MLB history at 15 years. Soto’s youth, plus his Hall of Fame track, make this deal possible.

Soto has accumulated 36.4 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 25, which ranks 17th all-time. Mike Trout is the only other active player on that list. Of the 15 others, 12 are in the Hall of Fame, another is a lock to get there in Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez would be in if not for steroid usage. The only reason Soto isn’t ranked higher is his below-average outfield defense, though that was roundly ignored by his free agent suitors given the $700MM+ offers.

One thing Soto has that his Hall of Fame peers did not (aside from free agency rights, of course) is Statcast. Modern-day GMs highly value Statcast metrics demonstrating how hard a player hits the ball, and Soto’s numbers regularly reside in the 99th percentile. It’s key evidence that Soto’s elite offense is sustainable for many years, even if his glovework is less desirable.

It also bears mentioning that the narrative of Soto being a poor defender has become somewhat overstated by his detractors. There’s no getting around the fact that he is a below-average defender on the whole, but he’s not yet reached the point where he’s an unmitigated liability in the outfield — nor do we know when or if he’ll get there. Defensive metrics can vary heavily on a year-to-year basis, but Soto has only had one truly dismal season in the eyes of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved. And looking at his seven big league seasons on the whole, Soto has been dinged for -15 DRS and -24 Outs Above Average.

On a yearly basis, he’s been somewhere in the range of -2 DRS and -3 OAA. He’s not likely to make any sizable gains, but he ought to be able to play a passable right field for the next several years. He may be lacking in range and doesn’t top the charts in terms of raw arm strength by any means, but Soto’s arm is quite accurate. Over the past two seasons, only Lane Thomas and Ian Happ have more outfield assists. Statcast ranked his throwing value in the 90th percentile of MLB outfielders. Soto might eventually require a move away from the outfield, but he could potentially have a stop at first base before eventually moving to a DH role. Ultimately, if teams thought his defense was as problematic as his most strident critics typically portray it to be, Soto probably wouldn’t have commanded a contract of this sheer magnitude.

Soto is set to enter the prime of his already illustrious career in a Mets uniform. He’ll patrol right field and pair with Lindor to create a frightening one-two punch that should offer the Mets a reasonable facsimile of the unbelievable partnership of Soto and Judge, which helped to carry the Yankees from an 82-80 showing in 2023 to a 94-win campaign and an AL pennant this past season. The Mets, for their part, were far closer to being a top team even before adding Soto; their 2024 season saw the club win 89 games and fight their way into the NLCS, where they fell to the eventual World Champion Dodgers in six games. In addition to Lindor, Soto will be protected in the lineup by the presence of fellow corner outfielder Brandon Nimmo and an intriguing group of youngsters like Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez. A reunion with Alonso remains possible, and the Mets will surely explore every avenue of the trade and free agent markets as they look to further augment the lineup.

Now that the load-bearing free agent of the offseason has finally been dislodged, a flurry of activity around the league is expected throughout the Winter Meetings in Dallas this week as free agents and trade candidates alike who had been slowed by Soto’s presence may begin to move. Fellow free agent corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander figure to see their markets pick up in a big way now that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are set to explore their various contingency plans for failing to land Soto.

Other high-priced free agents such as Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Alex Bregman could similarly see increased movement with the winter’s top dog no longer in the picture. They’ve all been linked to the Jays, Yankees and Red Sox — to varying extents. Certain high-priced pieces available on the trade market like Cody Bellinger and Nolan Arenado could start seeing additional action in the coming days. Bellinger specifically saw his potential market inextricably linked to the Soto bidding.

The Yankees, in particular, figure to be aggressive after coming up short. They’ve long been expected to be aggressive in their search for impact talent to replace Soto’s production in the event they came up short in a Subway Series bidding war. Hernandez, Bellinger, Burnes and Fried are all among the names who have come up in connection to the Bronx in recent weeks who seem more plausible as targets now that Soto has departed for Queens.

It could be years before we see another free-agent bidding of this nature — possibly decades, if the gap between Alex Rodriguez and Soto is representative of anything. But while the Soto talks have dominated the early stages of the 2024-25 offseason, his eventual decision isn’t a sign of things winding down but rather a catalyst to truly unleash the full scope of offseason drama. The first and most significant domino has fallen, but the offseason is just getting started.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Mets were signing Soto to a 15-year, $765MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the deal did not contain deferred money and could push beyond $800MM with escalators. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first to report the $75MM signing bonus. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the opt-out, while ESPN’s Jorge Castillo reported the opt-out override. Tim Healey of Newsday was first with the no-trade protection. Heyman reported the salary breakdown.