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Andrew Benintendi

Quick Hits: International Bonuses, Prospects, Analytics, PEDs

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It goes without saying that the international market offers an increasingly important route for organizations to acquire fresh talent. With bonus rules overlaying an already complicated array of interests, and loads of new players entering the picture from Cuba, it’s a situation that is ripe for gamesmanship, as Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. Teams have numerous avenues for shifting bonuses between amateur players, many of whom are largely controlled by handlers who have varied and obscure arrangements with multiple youngsters. That situation creates a complex and sub-optimal set of incentives, per Badler, with “package” arrangements often utilized to get around limitations on spending on a single player. The post qualifies as essential reading in this area of the transactional game.

Here are a few more notable pieces worth a look:

  • Badler also mines the minor league ranks for prospects who have set themselves up for quick promotions. Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez has looked like a strong international investment and is in line to move up from the low A level; highly-touted Red Sox youngsters Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada seem ready for Double-A; and the Phillies have several players clamoring for a step up the ladder, including top prospect J.P. Crawford.
  • Baseball analytics departments have expanded greatly in recent years, as Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur examine at FiveThirtyEight.com. By their tabulations, the number of quantitative-oriented, full-time employees of major league teams has risen from 44 in 2009 all the way to 156 at present. Clubs that moved quickly to build out their teams of analysts have benefited greatly for a relatively meager investment, the study finds. As big-market clubs have increasingly followed their lower-budget competitors, there has been increasing competition for established and entry-level staffers. Interestingly, though, that hasn’t resulted in a reduction in scouting departments; Lindbergh and Arthur write that any downsizing at the professional level “has been more than offset by increased amateur and international coverage.” Unfortunately, women continue to be drastically underrepresented in the analytics and scouting ranks. You’ll certainly want to give this fascinating piece a full read to appreciate it.
  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today looks at the current state of PEDs in baseball, asking whether players who test positive are merely those who choose the wrong people to set their drug regimens. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also recently addressed the subject, with several prominent players telling him that the use of illicit substances remains a major problem in the game. Improving the current league efforts to stamp out the problem may be less a matter of tweaking the already-significant penalties than it is one of somehow getting ahead of those who are figuring ways around testing. “If there was a type of testing that guaranteed every person that used PEDs would be caught, I would be all for it,” Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw tells Rosenthal. “I don’t think the problem is the length of the suspension, but more the improbability of being caught.”
  • As the Phillies’ new front office reshapes the organization’s approach to analytics, it is seeking to manage the volume of information in a way that optimizes its function, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “That information can be overwhelming,” says GM Matt Klentak. “There is so much information. The key for our front office and coaching staff and, ultimately, our players is that we’re isolating the information that helps players and coaches in the moment without locking them up.”

More Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Deal

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Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Red Sox’ big move to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. Here are a few more that have trickled in throughout the day.

  • As noted in our previous post, reviews of the Red Sox’ end of the deal by outside analysts have not all been enthusiastic. But CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam collected a number of takes from scouts and evaluators within the game who view the Sox’ decision to trade four prospects (including two highly rated ones in Margot and Guerra) somewhat more favorably. “I like Margot and Guerra. [They’re] middle-of-the-diamond kids with upside, (but) I doubt either becomes Betts or Bogaerts,” says one NL scout. “Prospects are nice, but in that market, give me Brady as QB over [Marcus] Mariota.” An NL evaluator points out that the Sox avoided giving up their very best prospects, like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Not everyone loved the deal from Boston’s perspective, however. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski “is all about the short term and this trade made sense from that perspective,” says an MLB exec. “But if you do too many of the deals, you wake up in a few years like the Phillies … or the Tigers.”
  • One potential reason the Red Sox felt outfielder Margot was expendable was the presence of 2015 top draft choice Andrew Benintendi, who could move through the minors quickly, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. In an accompanying article, MacPherson compares Benintendi to Mets rookie Michael Conforto, who rocketed through the minors, and notes that Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie all moved quickly through the Sox’ system after being drafted out of college, as Benintendi was. Benintendi hit .313/.416/.556 across two levels in his first taste of the minors this summer.
  • The Reds don’t feel the Padres’ trade of Kimbrel will have much effect on the market for Aroldis Chapman, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. Chapman only has one year of control remaining, while Kimbrel has three, so although both are top-flight closers, they represent somewhat different types of commodities. “Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control,” says new Reds GM Dick Williams. “We didn’t feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”

Heyman’s Latest: Mattingly, Red Sox, Ozuna, Heyward, Giants, Storen

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The Marlins have interviewed at least five candidates for their managerial opening, but they put their search on hold to wait to see what the future held for Don Mattingly, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also looks at the Dodgers’ upcoming managerial search, noting that former Padres manager Bud Black, current Dodgers third base coach/former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke and current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach could factor into L.A.’s search for a replacement in addition to early favorite Gabe Kapler. Here are some more highlights from the column…

  • The Braves will pursue bullpen upgrades this winter after their relief corps struggled tremendously in 2015. Presumably, the club could be in the mix for some short-term upgrades that could be flipped come the trade deadline, though I’ll point out that the Braves will probably be better off in 2016 with the returns of Shae Simmons, Chris Withrow and perhaps Daniel Winkler from Tommy John surgery.
  • While the Red Sox are more willing to trade prospects under president Dave Dombrowski than they were under former GM Ben Cherington, the club is said to consider infielder Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Anderson Espinoza off-limits as it looks to upgrade its pitching staff on the trade market.
  • The White Sox are on the lookout for third base help and will also pursue upgrades behind the plate. Chicago wound up designating Conor Gillaspie, its primary third baseman from 2013 through the first half of 2015, for assignment this summer and trading him to the Angels. Tyler Flowers had a poor second half, although as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his Offseason Outlook on the ChiSox, Flowers has worked hard to become an excellent pitch framer, so he does bring some value to the table in that increasingly important element of the game.
  • Some feel that the Reds are going to blow things up and go for a full-on rebuild this winter, though Heyman writes that Brandon Phillips is said to have negative trade value. Considering the fact that Phillips had a decent rebound season at the plate and is still a sound defender whose contract no longer is too burdensome, I wonder if that’s a universal sentiment. While he’s not a bargain, Phillips seems to be at least reasonably priced.
  • The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.
  • The Indians still have interest in Marcell Ozuna, as they reportedly did prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. I mentioned in my Offseason Outlook for Cleveland that a pursuit of Ozuna would make some sense and speculated on a potential match sending Trevor Bauer to Miami. Heyman notes that the Marlins are looking for a frontline pitcher to pair with Jose Fernandez, but history shows us they’re not likely to spend on a top-tier free agent.
  • The Astros, too, are looking for bullpen upgrades. Houston pursued top-end relief talent prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, with GM Jeff Luhnow candidly telling the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that he’d like to pursue a “flamethrower.”
  • The Twins are expected to pursue a reunion with A.J. Pierzynski, as many have speculated on recently (myself included). Heyman notes that the Braves will probably try to bring Pierzynski back as well. Minnesota also wants Torii Hunter back, but in a reduced role.
  • Starting pitching will be a focus for the Giants, who are interested in Zack Greinke and Mike Leake, Heyman writes. They will also exercise their $5.5MM club option on Nori Aoki, so long as he continues to progress from late-season head injuries that stemmed from being hit in the head by a pair of pitches. San Francisco will decline Marlon Byrd’s $8MM option.
  • The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.

Red Sox Sign Andrew Benintendi, Austin Rei

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10:23pm: Boston has announced the signings of both Benintendi and third-rounder Austin Rei. The catcher will receive an at-slot, $724,400 bonus, Callis tweets.

Rei is a defensive specialist; indeed, Callis calls his work behind the plate the best of all this year’s draft-eligible collegians. The questions come with the bat, though there are signs that Rei can contribute on offense. As MLB.com wrote in ranking him 87th on its board, Rei rates solidly in terms of bat speed and approach.

10:30am: The Red Sox have agreed to terms with No. 7 overall draft pick Andrew Benintendi, reports MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). The lefty-swinging outfielder out of the University of Arkansas will receive the full slot bonus of $3,590,400, per Callis, who feels that Benintendi possessed the best all-around tools of any college hitter in this year’s draft class.

Andrew Benintendi

Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo ranked Benintendi eighth among draft prospects, while Benintendi ranked ninth per Baseball America and per Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Benintendi a bit lower at No. 21, though he noted that, “No one has improved his stock this spring more than the sophomore draft-eligible Benintendi…” which is lofty but likely deserved praise after Benintendi led the SEC in OBP, homers and slugging percentage.

Callis and Mayo praised Benintendi’s smooth swing and ability to consistently barrel up the ball. That’s complemented by plus speed, the MLB.com duo notes, giving Benintendi a chance to be a base-stealing threat and to stick in center field. BA notes that Benintendi didn’t play summer ball last year and wasn’t even on some clubs’ radars entering the season, but he quickly caused a “who’s-who of scouting directors and front-office officials” to fly in to watch his performance as the season progressed. McDaniel pegs the potential of each of Benintendi’s five tools as solid-average or better, and BA notes that the only real knocks on the 5’10” outfielder are his size and lack of a lengthier track record.

With Benintendi’s agreement in place, eight of the Top 10 picks in this year’s draft have either signed or agreed to terms, though just three have signed for the full slot value of their pick. (Minnesota’s Tyler Jay and Philadelphia’s Cornelius Randolph are the others.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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