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Brenton Doyle

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  The utility Gold Glove was determined in a separate fashion, via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

National League winners….

American League winners….

The Rockies May Have Found A Long-Term Answer In Center Field

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The Rockies are headed to another last place finish. Overall, the only sources of intrigue are how active they’ll be as deadline sellers and whether they’ll place below the Marlins as the worst team in the National League. That doesn’t negate the possibility of individual development. For a second straight year, Colorado looks like they’ve developed a regular in the outfield amidst a generally rough season.

Last season’s success story was fourth-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher Nolan Jones. While his follow-up has not gone as planned, Colorado has gotten much better production out of another of his second-year outfield mates. Brenton Doyle seems to be turning the corner from an all-glove center fielder to a balanced, above-average everyday player.

One could argue that Doyle had a successful rookie season in his own right. It didn’t match up to Jones’ debut campaign, but Doyle looked like one of the sport’s 5-10 best outfield defenders from the time he was called up. He posted eye-popping grades (+19 Defensive Runs Saved, 15 runs above average by Statcast measurement) in a little more than 1000 innings. He earned a well-deserved Gold Glove.

Stellar as Doyle was defensively, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded him marginally above replacement in 2023. Among regulars, he was probably the least productive hitter in the majors. Doyle ranked last among 212 hitters (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .250 on-base percentage. His .203 average was sixth-worst and he was in the bottom-10 in slugging percentage as well.

Unlike other players with similar rate stats, Doyle played half his games at Coors Field. The park-adjusted wRC+ metric rated Doyle 57 percentage points below league average offensively. That was worst in the majors among regulars by a wide margin. Tim Anderson was next closest at 40 points below average.

The Rockies had reason to believe Doyle would take a step forward offensively. He went to Division II Shepherd University. Doyle certainly wasn’t facing many professional-caliber arms at that level. He was nevertheless a generally productive minor league hitter, albeit with significant strikeout issues. Doyle is a good athlete who drew praise from prospect evaluators for plus or better raw power. His approach and pure hit tool have always been the biggest concerns, but he had the kind of profile that could lead a team to believe he’d blossom later than most players.

Doyle seems to have done just that in his age-26 season, likely progressing even beyond Colorado’s expectations. He heads into the season’s unofficial second half with a .276/.343/.471 slash line across 377 plate appearances. His 15 homers are already five more than he managed over 431 trips to the plate last season. Doyle hasn’t merely improved from one of the league’s worst hitters to a competent option in the bottom third of a lineup. His offense has jumped from the bottom of the league to better than average. Bud Black gave him some run at the top of order last month and had him in the middle third of the lineup going into the All-Star Break.

An improved process is arguably even more encouraging than the results themselves are. Doyle hasn’t simply ridden a streak of batted ball luck to good numbers. His .338 average on balls in play is .043 points higher than last year’s mark, but it’s not a number that screams for regression. Doyle is an elite runner who hits the ball fairly hard and plays in the sport’s biggest home park. He should be able to maintain a higher-than-average BABIP.

The much bigger driver has been Doyle’s improved strike zone discipline. The righty hitter has both become more selective and taken a massive step forward with his contact skills. As a rookie, Doyle made contact 79% of the time he swung at a pitch inside the strike zone, a bottom-20 mark in the majors. He’s north of 86% this year, slightly higher than the 85.3% league average. Doyle has dramatically improved his contact rates against breaking stuff and is chasing pitches off the plate less often than he did a year ago.

That translates to a vastly improved strikeout and walk profile. After going down on strikes an untenable 35% of the time last season, he’s punching out at a much more passable 24.9% rate. His walks are up from 5.1% to a decent 8.8% mark. No one would confuse Doyle for Juan Soto, but average strike zone numbers are more than sufficient. There’s never been much question about Doyle’s power or athleticism. He’s a fantastic defender. If he can maintain even a fringe-average hit tool, he has an All-Star ceiling.

As is the case with most Rockies players, Doyle has pronounced home/road splits. He has done an inordinate amount of his offensive damage at Coors Field. He’s hitting .346/.407/.588 with a 20.8% strikeout rate over 173 plate appearances at home. Doyle’s road production (.217/.289/.372 with a 28.4% strikeout percentage across 204 PAs) is mediocre. His road numbers are at least partially weighed down by a modest .267 BABIP, though, and his strikeout and walk profile has improved no matter the setting.

With regard to pitcher handedness, Doyle has been above-average against both lefties (.289/.359/.470) and righties (.272/.338/.472). His walk rate is steady regardless of platoon matchups, though he’s been more strikeout prone against righties (26.7%, compared to 19.6% versus southpaws). Doyle has also hit for more power against right-handers, however, which has helped to mitigate some of the extra swings and misses. Any way you slice it, he’s been a quality hitter regardless of opponent.

Whether Doyle can maintain or build off his early-season promise is one of the biggest second half storylines in Colorado. The Rox may not have much to play for as a team, but they’re looking for players to establish themselves. Colorado has Ezequiel Tovar locked in at shortstop and can keep Ryan McMahon at the hot corner for three more seasons. Doyle is in his first full MLB campaign and can be controlled for five years after this one. He has shown the talent to join Tovar, McMahon and hopefully Jones as part of the position player core. Maintaining this newfound approach would only increase the organization’s confidence that Doyle fits with that group.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Focused On Pitching Help, Bench Upgrades

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The Rockies’ 59-103 record in 2023 was third-worst in baseball, leaving general manager Bill Schmidt no shortage of paths to explore when searching for upgrades. However, although the Rockies were somewhat surprisingly one of MLB’s lightest-hitting clubs in ’23 — 17th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 20th in slugging percentage and 30th in wRC+ — Schmidt said at this week’s Winter Meetings that pursuing a power bat isn’t high on his list of priorities (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Upgrading the pitching staff and deepening manager Bud Black’s bench will be the greater focus, per Schmidt. Specifically, he’d like to add a veteran backup catcher behind Elias Diaz (via DNVR’s Patrick Lyons).

Both areas could clearly use augmentation. The pitching staff, in particular, was dreadful — due in no small part to injuries. An already shaky Rockies staff lost both German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John surgery last year. Each of Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson, Ty Blach, Peter Lambert and Chris Flexen started at least 10 games for the Rox. None did so with an ERA lower than Freeland’s 5.03. Colorado starters posted an MLB-worst 5.91 ERA, and things weren’t any better in the bullpen, where the Rockies sported an MLB-worst 5.41 ERA and a 29th-ranked 20.4% strikeout rate.

Schmidt has already added one arm to the rotation mix, buying low on Guardians righty Cal Quantrill following a down season. Coors Field isn’t exactly an ideal spot for a pitcher to try to rebuild his value, but Quantrill did post a 3.08 ERA in 368 innings from 2020-22. Shoulder inflammation limited him to 19 starts in 2023 (and perhaps contributed to an ugly 5.24 ERA), but Quantrill took the ball 32 times as recently as 2022. He was a perfectly sensible addition for a Rockies team that’s desperate for arms but lacking in high-end prospects needed to acquire difference-making pitchers. Most available high-end trade targets are controllable for two or even just one year anyhow, and a Rockies team that’s at best an extreme long-shot to contend probably doesn’t want to sacrifice too much long-term value for short-term upgrades.

Because of their long odds at playoff contention, it seems the Rockies are intent on taking a look at a series of young players rather than displacing them with more expensive free agents. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar will get another opportunity to provide some value with his bat after a brilliant defensive showing in his rookie season but a lackluster offensive performance (.253/.287/.408). The 2024 season will be something of a mulligan for second baseman Brendan Rodgers, who missed much of the 2023 season on the injured list. Nolan Jones will look to build on an impressive rookie showing, likely in right field.

Schmidt indicated that first base will likely belong to Kris Bryant, though occasional right field work is also on the table (link via Lyons). Ryan McMahon, signed through 2027, is locked in at the hot corner. The Rox re-signed veteran Charlie Blackmon to serve as their primary DH before the season even opened, guaranteeing him a surprisingly strong $13MM salary in the process.

Saunders writes that the Rockies also have higher hopes for outfielders Sean Bouchard and Brenton Doyle. The former suffered a ruptured biceps tendon prior to the season and missed most of the year, but he’s produced a massive .304/.429/.563 slash in 140 plate appearances between 2022-23. Doyle was perhaps baseball’s least-productive hitter in 2023, batting .203/.250/.343 with a 35% strikeout rate in 431 plate appearances. He also posted flat-out elite defensive grades, however, drawing enormous positives from Defensive Runs Saved (19), Ultimate Zone Rating (24.5) and Outs Above Average (16) in well south of a full season’s worth of innings. With that type of defensive wizardry, he only needs to clear a low bar at the plate to be a valuable everyday player, but last year’s output wasn’t enough.

Improving the bench shouldn’t be a difficult proposition. Brian Serven is the current favorite for backup catching work but carries just a .195/.248/.314 line in 228 MLB plate appearances. Bouchard and/or 24-year-old Hunter Goodman could get regular work in right field or carve out a bench role, but both have minor league options remaining. Utility infielder Alan Trejo has hit .243/.292/.367 in 402 MLB plate appearances over the past three seasons. He’s versatile but also out of options, and a more productive utility infielder should be available.

The main question for the Rockies’ bench could pertain to former top prospect Elehuris Montero, who’s yet to cement himself at either infield corner. The presence of McMahon, Bryant and Blackmon leaves the 26-year-old Montero, who’s hit just .239/.283/.428 in 492 MLB plate appearances, without a path to regular playing time. But Montero is also out of minor league options, so he’ll have to crack the big league roster or else be either traded or exposed to waivers. Montero was a notable piece of the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado return from the Cardinals, but he’s something of an odd man out with regard to the current allotment of playing time. Then again, Bryant has spent ample time on the injured list in recent seasons, and Montero could be the first man up should he again need time on the shelf.

The Rockies currently project for a payroll of about $142MM, per Roster Resource, which is around $30MM shy of last year’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll (a bit more than $172MM). There’s room for the club to spend, but convincing free agent pitchers to sign on the dotted line and call Coors Field home is no small feat. And the Rockies’ farm system generally isn’t well regarded, which makes adding arms on the trade market difficult, too (hence the buy-low pickup of Quantrill).

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

NL West Notes: Kim, Doyle, Cessa, McCarthy, Fletcher

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X-rays were negative on Ha-Seong Kim’s left knee, Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) after Kim had to be helped off the field during today’s game.  In the second inning of the Padres’ 8-6 win over the Nationals, Kim fouled a pitch off his knee, knocking him to the ground in obvious pain.  Despite the relatively good news from the imaging, Kim isn’t expected to play on Friday and might end up on the 10-day injured list unless the swelling and discomfort subsides quickly.

Now in his third season with the Padres, Kim is hitting a modest .237/.316/.382 over 172 plate appearances, which works out to a 97 wRC+.  Even this slightly below-average number might be generous considering that Kim’s 22.3% hard-hit ball rate is among the lowest in the league, though he has provided a lot of defensive value to San Diego as a second baseman and, more recently, as a third baseman in place of the injured Manny Machado.  The Padres’ depth would take another hit if both Machado and Kim are out, and Rougned Odor (whose bat has been on fire as of late) would be the likeliest candidate for regular time at third base.  Odor and Brandon Dixon could split time between second and third, Jake Cronenworth could also play second base, and Matt Carpenter could see more time as a first baseman.

More from around the NL West…

  • Rockies outfielder Brenton Doyle left today’s game on a cart after colliding with the outfield wall in pursuit of a Jorge Soler home run.  Doyle told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and other reporters that his right knee “probably took the most impact, and it was pretty excruciating pain at the time,” but “I feel like I could have walked off.”  Doyle will undergo tests to determine the nature and extent of his injury, but Harding reports that the Rockies are already likely to call Nolan Jones up from Triple-A as at least a precautionary replacement.  Making his MLB debut this season, Doyle has hit .240/.288/.467 over 80 PA, but has also gone 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts and displayed some impressive glovework in center field.
  • In another injury concern for the Rockies, Harding tweets that Luis Cessa was removed for precautionary reasons from his Triple-A start after taking a line drive off his right leg.  Cessa was able to face two more batters before leaving the game and he left the field under his own power.  Colorado has already had to deal with several pitching injuries this season, which is part of the reason why Cessa was just signed to a minor league contract earlier this week to provide some additional depth.
  • The Diamondbacks optioned outfielder Dominic Fletcher to Triple-A Reno today, and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Snakes are calling Jake McCarthy back up to the majors.  It was exactly a month ago that the D’Backs optioned McCarthy to Triple-A after a very slow start to the season, but McCarthy has started to find himself in the minors, hitting .333/.419/.533 over 105 PA (albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League).  With both McCarthy and Alek Thomas sent to the minors, Fletcher was one of the players the D’Backs called upon to pick up the slack in the outfield, and Fletcher delivered a very solid .308/.349/.474 in his first 85 career PA in the big leagues.  It stands to reason that Fletcher will be back with the Diamondbacks sooner or later, unless McCarthy really gets on track at the plate.

Rockies Option Elehuris Montero

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The Rockies announced today that they have recalled outfielder Brenton Doyle, a promotion that was reported yesterday to be imminent. The corresponding move is that infielder Elehuris Montero has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Doyle was called up as a couple of Colorado outfielders are dealing with some day-to-day injuries. Kris Bryant is experiencing pain in the sacroiliac joint and glute on his left side, while Yonathan Daza was hit by a pitch on his hand yesterday. It had been speculated that perhaps one of them would be headed to the injured list, but the club has instead demoted a player who was their regular third baseman until recently.

Montero, 24, was one of five players that came over to the Rockies in the Nolan Arenado trade, which continues to look like a major misstep for the organization. Montero and left-hander Austin Gomber were the two most notable players coming the other way and neither has provided much value to the Rockies thus far. Gomber has an even 5.00 ERA through 360 1/3 innings and recently got candid about how the pressure of trying to live up to that trade was affecting him.

As for Montero, his prospect hype was at its peak going into 2019, when Baseball America ranked him the #81 prospect in the entire league. His stock faded a bit over the next two years, but the Rockies still liked him enough to make him a key piece of their return for Arenado. He has continued to play well since the trade, but only in the minors. He spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .278/.360/.529 for a wRC+ of 132. He continued hitting well in the minors last year, getting called up to make his major league debut. But in 69 major league games thus far, he’s hit just .238/.276/.419 for a wRC+ of 77. He’s struck out in 33.9% of his plate appearances while walking in just 4.2% of them.

Montero is primarily a third baseman but has been blocked there by Ryan McMahon. This spring, second baseman Brendan Rodgers dislocated his shoulder and required surgery that could be season-ending. The club decided to deal with that issue by moving McMahon to second and giving Montero a crack at the third base job. Unfortunately, that plan didn’t work out, as Montero has continued struggling at the plate and also in the field. All three of Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating have given him negative reviews for his glovework in the early going this year.

Montero is just 24 and certainly could still take steps forward at the plate and in the field, but there may be an inflection point not too far over the horizon as he has just one option year remaining. Once he spends 20 days in the minors, 2023 will officially burn that final option. Unless he’s quickly recalled in the next couple of weeks and stays in the majors the rest of the way, he will be out of options next year. McMahon is under contract through 2027, which perhaps means Montero should spent more time at first base, where he’s also seen some action. C.J. Cron is an impending free agent, perhaps opening up that spot next year, though Montero would have competition from Michael Toglia. For now, Montero will continue his development in Albuquerque and try to work his way back up to the big leagues.

Rockies To Promote Brenton Doyle

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The Rockies are expected to call up outfielder Brenton Doyle from Triple-A Albuquerque prior to Monday’s game with the Guardians, according to Blake Street Banter (Twitter link).  Doyle is already on Colorado’s 40-man roster, so the Rockies will have to just make one corresponding move tomorrow to create space for Doyle on the 26-man active roster.

This will be the first trip to the big leagues for the 24-year-old Doyle, who was a fourth-round selection for the Rockies in the 2019 draft.  The Rox added him to their 40-man roster in advance of last winter’s Rule 5 Draft, wanting to protect the outfielder in the wake of a solid 2022 season that saw him hit .256/.300/.473 with 26 home runs and 23 steals (in 26 chances) over 548 combined plate appearances at Double-A and Triple-A.  Only 41 of those PA came at the Triple-A level in 2022, but Doyle has looked great in a slightly longer audition in Albuquerque this year, as he has mashed his way to a .306/.404/.633 slash line over 57 PA.

MLB Pipeline ranks Doyle as the 16th-best prospect in Colorado’s minor league system, while Baseball America ranks him 21st amongst Rockies farmhands.  Given plus grades for his defense and throwing arm, Doyle is already big league-capable from a glovework standpoint, able to play center field or (owing to his strong arm) right field.  He also has plus speed, which has translated to success on the basepaths, and some raw power that has led to his power numbers.

Plate discipline is an ongoing question, as Doyle’s strikeout rates have been higher than 30% at each level beyond rookie ball.  Pipeline’s scouting report did note that Doyle made a bit more contact after making some adjustments last season, indicating that Doyle might still be able to reach another level as a hitter.

The Rockies will see if Doyle can unlock some of that potential in the majors, but the fact that the Rox are calling up an outfielder might related to a pair of injury concerns.  Kris Bryant left Saturday’s game after feeling pain in his sacroiliac joint, while Yonathan Daza left today’s game after being hit in the hand by a Zack Wheeler fastball.  X-rays were negative on Daza and other players are day-to-day for now, but either a 10-day injured list placement could be coming Monday or Colorado might just be adding Doyle as outfield depth since neither Bryant or Daza may be available to face the Guardians.

Rockies Select Five Players To Roster

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The Rockies announced they have selected five players to their roster in advance of today’s Rule 5 deadline. They are right-handers Riley Pint and Blair Calvo, infielders Warming Bernabel and Julio Carreras, as well as outfielder Brenton Doyle.

Pint has pitched his way onto the 40-man roster for the first time. That was long the expectation after Colorado selected him fourth overall out of a Kansas high school back in 2016, but he’s traversed an unexpectedly challenging path. Pint struggled significantly with his strike-throwing in the lower levels of the minor leagues, and he decided to step away from the game entirely for a point last year. The 6’5″ hurler returned in 2022, splitting the season between Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque.

Now 25, Pint spent the bulk of the season in Hartford, working to a 4.64 ERA in 42 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. He punched out a very strong 29.6% of opponents, although his 15.6% walk percentage remains alarming. The Rockies were nevertheless impressed enough with his form to foreclose any possibility of losing him in the Rule 5 draft. He could factor into the big league bullpen mix next year.

Calvo was a 23rd-round draftee in 2019 out of a Florida junior college. He worked 35 innings through 29 relief appearances in Hartford, pitching to a 3.09 ERA. Calvo struck out an excellent 32.2% of opponents, induced ground-balls at a massive 57.6% clip and only walked 7.5% of opponents. Calvo turns 27 before Opening Day and could join Pint in factoring into the MLB bullpen mix in 2023.

Bernabel, the #13 prospect in the organization according to Baseball America, was an amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic before the 2019 season. A right-handed hitting third baseman, he’s shown excellent bat-to-ball skills in the low minors. The 20-year-old posted a .317/.390/.504 line with 10 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 300 plate appearances with Low-A Fresno. He’s still likely a couple years from big league readiness, having just briefly reached High-A, but his rapidly improving prospect status gets him a 40-man spot early.

Carreras, 23 in January, signed out of the Dominican Republic during the 2018-19 international period. Baseball America considers him the #20 prospect in the system, praising his shortstop defense and power potential. He spent most of the year at High-A Spokane, hitting .289/.352/.473 with 11 homers to earn a late bump to Hartford.

Doyle is the #22 prospect in the system, according to BA. A fourth-round pick in 2019 out of Shepherd University, he spent most of the year in Hartford. He posted a .246/.287/.450 mark, connecting on 23 longballs but striking out at an elevated 31.2% clip. Doyle spent most of the season playing center field and has a very promising combination of power and athleticism, but his subpar bat-to-ball skills raise questions about his ultimate role.

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