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Quick Hits: Morales, Relievers, Archer, Leon

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Kendrys Morales set a new Blue Jays team record Sunday by homering in his seventh consecutive game.  With one more long ball on Monday against the Orioles, Morales will tie the MLB record of an eight-game homer streak, shared by Ken Griffey Jr., Don Mattingly, and Dale Long.  The streak highlights a rather remarkable turnaround to Morales’ season, one that seems directly tied to his decision to stop wearing the glasses he donned for the first six weeks of the 2018 campaign.  After posting a .499 OPS over his first 109 plate appearances, Morales has quietly been one of baseball’s hottest hitters, with a .308/.380/.560 slash line over his next 284 PA.  There aren’t any AL contenders with a glaring need for a DH-only player like Morales at the moment, so while a trade before the end of August is unlikely, Morales’ revival could give Toronto at least some hope of moving him in the offseason, even if the Jays have to eat some of his $12MM 2019 salary.

Here’s more from around baseball as we wrap up Players’ Weekend…

  • Relievers were the only position group that seemed immune to last offseason’s stalled free agent market, as several bullpen arms scored lucrative multi-year contracts.  Looking ahead to this winter, however, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wonders if the bullpen market could also begin to suffer, in no small because so many of the relievers who signed those big contracts last offseason have struggled in the first year of their deals.  This year’s free agent is headlined by such names as Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, and Cody Allen, though the latter three have seen their value diminish due to injuries or ineffectiveness.
  • Chris Archer allowed six runs in four innings in the Pirates’ loss to the Brewers today, and the right-hander now has a 6.45 ERA over five starts in a Pittsburgh uniform.  Needless to say, this isn’t what the Bucs were hoping for after landing Archer for a hefty prospect package at the trade deadline, though Archer himself doesn’t feel he’s that far off his usual form.  Archer told reporters, including The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel, that he thinks his struggles are “based on some minor things here and there that are easily adjustable.”  Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage feels Archer needs to pitch inside more often and move his fastball around the strike zone, though the bottom line is, as Archer said, “I just have to be better, period.”
  • As of Saturday, Red Sox pitchers had a 3.08 ERA when Sandy Leon was catching, compared to a 3.84 ERA with another catcher.  Leon’s game-calling and defensive abilities have made him a favorite of the Sox rotation, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes, and the team hasn’t lost a beat with Leon taking the bulk of playing time with Christian Vazquez on the DL.  Mastrodonato’s piece also delves into Leon’s early development as a player, and how his quick grasp of English helped him easily learn how to work with pitchers.

Rays To Acquire Shane Baz As PTBNL In Chris Archer Trade

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The Pirates have agreed to send top pitching prospect Shane Baz to the Rays as the player to be named later in last month’s Chris Archer blockbuster, reports John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com (via Twitter). That’ll make Tampa Bay’s total haul for Archer an impressive combination of Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Baz, who was the Pirates’ first-round selection in the 2017 draft.

Shane Baz | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Still just 19 years of age, Baz was among the top-ranked pitching prospects in the 2017 draft and signed with the Pirates for a $4.1MM bonus that was about $70K over his slot value at the time. At the time of the draft, Baz was the top prospect from the state of Texas and drew praise for a plus heater that could reach 98 mph as well as potential plus offerings in his cutter, slider and curveball. While No. 2 overall pick Hunter Greene was the top pitching prospect in the draft, Baseball America wrote in ’17 that Baz “has the ingredients to surpass Greene going forward due to his more potent breaking pitches.”

Baz is clearly still years away from impacting the Rays at the big league level. He spent his 2017 debut season pitching for the Pirates’ Rookie-level affiliate in the Gulf Coast League before moving to the Rookie-level Appalachian League in 2018. To this point, Baz has demonstrated the ability to miss bats but also some shaky control — as one might expect for a raw high school power pitcher making the transition to pro ball. Through 45 1/3 innings this season, Baz has logged a 3.97 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 with a whopping 62 percent ground-ball rate.

While Baz is as long-term a piece as the Rays could have received in their return for Archer, he adds another elite prospect to a rapidly improving Rays system. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked Baz as the game’s No. 95 prospect on their recent midseason update, while Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs pegged him 110th overall. Baz will need to further refine his control and gain experience against more advanced competition, but he’s already a high-ceiling arm who could quickly improve his stock with improved control and/or a strong showing when he ultimately reaches full-season ball.

Chris Archer | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Archer has gotten off to a shaky start for the Pirates since being traded, though he’s made all of two appearances to date. The inclusion of Baz undoubtedly stings for general manager Neal Huntington and his staff, who have to be disheartened to see the Cardinals surging back into the mix with a 6-game win streak and an overall 8-2 showing in their past 10 contests. Be that as it may, however, the Pirates’ acquisition of Archer was as much about the 2019 season and beyond as it was their pursuit of a Wild Card berth or a more unlikely NL Central crown in 2018. Archer gives the club an affordable mid-rotation option at worst and a potential front-of-the-rotation piece at best, and he comes with a contract that even the cost-conscious Pirates can afford for three years beyond the current season.

As was the case with the Cubs’ acquisition of Jose Quintana in 2017, that affordable contract proved immensely valuable on the trade market and netted a premium package of talent, even neither pitcher’s recent baseline run-prevention numbers were especially impressive. The Archer trade, like the Quintana trade before it, further serves as another data point that more traditional numbers (i.e. ERA) aren’t nearly as influential when evaluating players in this type of trade as they once were. For the Bucs, the allure of Archer’s K/BB numbers, his superior fielding-independent metrics and the fact that he can be affordably teamed with Jameson Taillon atop the rotation for years to come were enough to part with a package of three high-quality pieces — two of whom (Meadows and Glasnow) are able to immediately contribute to the Rays.

Injury Notes: Snell, Dickerson, Fowler, Williams, Skaggs

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As expected, the Rays have activated left-hander Blake Snell to start tonight’s game against the White Sox. The first-time All-Star will be on a limited pitch count following a two-week DL stint for left shoulder fatigue. Following a trade of Chris Archer to the Pirates, Snell looks like the only reliable starter in a Rays rotation that continues to see relievers open games more often than the starters themselves. Snell’s pre-injury performance, of course, was phenomenal; his 2.27 ERA would be more than a run lower than his career best season.

Here are a few other disabled list transactions from around the league…

  • Pirates outfielder Corey Dickerson has been activated after a short stint on the disabled list; he’d been sidelined with a left hamstring strain. They’ll surely be glad to have him back after the club traded away notable outfield depth in the form of Austin Meadows at the July 31st deadline. While he’s active, Dickerson won’t be starting today’s game against the Cardinals (though he’ll presumably be available off the bench).
  • As expected after last night’s news, Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler will hit the DL after suffering a fractured foot. Fowler’s enduring a miserable season that’s by far his career worst; he’s managed to hit an absolutely wretched .180/.278/.298 across 334 plate appearances while playing middling outfield defense. Fangraphs rates him as being 1.2 wins below replacement level on the season after a 2.5 fWAR debut with the Cards last year.
  • Switch-hitting relief pitcher Taylor Williams is headed to the DL with right elbow soreness. It’s certainly bad news for a Brewers bullpen that’s seeing Corey Knebel struggle mightily of late. Williams has tossed 42 2/3 relief innings and managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings, though he’s only managed to keep the ball on the ground 34.8% of the time and has walked a batter nearly every other inning on average. Williams is in the midst of his first full season in the majors after a 4 2/3 inning cup of coffee last year.
  • Angels hurler Tyler Skaggs is headed to the disabled list with a left adductor strain, the club has announced. Skaggs has described the injury as “extremely frustrating”, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. He apparently sustained it during his last start. In his stead, the Angels have called up right-hander Taylor Cole. The Angels, of course, have already seen their rotation annihilated by injuries this year, with Garrett Richards, Shohei Ohtani, J.C. Ramirez and Matt Shoemaker among the affected starters.

Pirates Acquire Chris Archer

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The Pirates have officially struck a trade to acquire starter Chris Archer from the Rays, as Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported (via Twitter). Talented young players Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow will both go to Tampa Bay, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweeted.

There’s also a third player in the deal, as first noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). The identity is still not known — the announcement cites a player to be named later — but it’s said to be an asset “of real value,” per Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link).

Today’s news brings an end to a long-running trade saga involving Archer. The talented right-hander has been viewed as a target for years, with rival organizations intrigued not only by his big innings and strikeout totals, but also his extremely valuable contract. He now becomes the latest quality starter to be traded away by the Rays organization.

Archer inked a six-year, $25.5MM swap early in 2014. The agreement includes two option seasons at the end. While the very cheapest years have already gone into the books, there are some affordable campaigns remaining. Archer is earning just $6.25MM this year and $7.5MM next, followed by $9MM and $11MM club options that have a combined $2MM in buyouts.

Those dollar amounts surely appealed to a Pirates organization that is always seeking value. But the team was motivated most by the chance to improve in the near-term. Archer will represent a significant new addition to the rotation. The 29-year-old has only a 4.31 ERA on the year, the third-straight season in which he has allowed more than four earned per nine, but continues to carry peripherals that suggest he’s significantly better.

Of course, at some point the results will need to catch up to the metrics, and the Bucs are betting that’ll happen sooner than later. Archer is a quality asset regardless, but this deal was surely made based on the premise that he still can return to the higher standard he carried earlier in his career.

Otherwise, it’s hard to imagine the Bucs parting with this haul of talent in return. Meadows is the headlining piece at this point, as the 23-year-old top prospect has now shown an ability to hit in the big leagues. While his numbers at Triple-A haven’t been quite as impressive of late, and he’s benefiting from a .345 BABIP, Meadows carries a .292/.327/.468 slash in his first 165 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Glasnow, meanwhile, is soon to turn 25. He’s a big talent who has yet to fully harness his abilities. This year, Glasnow has functioned in a relief capacity, turning in 56 innings of 4.34 ERA ball with 11.6 K/9 against 5.5 BB/9 and a 56.0% groundball rate. While there’s still hope he’ll round into a MLB starter, perhaps that distinction won’t matter too much for a Rays team that no longer really seems to have a true starter on its roster at all.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Acquire Tommy Pham

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10:25am: The Rays and Cardinals have announced the trade. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the Cardinals are sending $500K of international money to the Rays in the deal. St. Louis is barred from spending more than $300K on any single international signing anyhow, and they’ve already been using their international funds as currency in trades over the past few days.

9:51am: The Rays have struck a deal to acquire Tommy Pham from the Cardinals, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’s not clear what other elements are in play, though Passan adds that Chris Archer is not involved in the trade. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that the Rays will send outfielder Justin Williams, left-hander Genesis Cabrera and right-hander Roel Ramirez to the Cardinals in exchange for Pham and international bonus allotments.

Tommy Pham | Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

While some may raise an eyebrow at the notion of the Rays adding pieces when they’re firmly out of both the AL East race and the AL Wild Card picture, Pham is controlled for another three seasons beyond the current campaign. Pham will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and is not eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season, making him an affordable long-term piece to help the Rays as they hope to move back into a contention with a young core built around Blake Snell, Jake Bauers, Willy Adames and others.

For the Cardinals, the trade serves as the latest in a roster shakeup that is approaching cataclysmic proportions. The Cards have designated Greg Holland and Tyler Lyons for assignment, traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners and are reportedly open to offers on Bud Norris and Jose Martinez. The Cardinals also sent minor league first baseman Luke Voit to the Yankees (along with international money) in order to acquire a pair of big league bullpen assets in Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos.

With Pham out of the picture in St. Louis, the Cards will create more opportunity for younger outfield options like Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill, though both Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler remain on hand as high-priced, veteran options.

In Pham, the Rays are buying low on a player who has slumped over the past two months but looked to have broken out as one of the National League’s better all-around players in 2017 and in the early stages of the 2018 campaign. From the start of his season in 2017 to the end of May this year, Pham posted a sensational .296/.399/.506 with 32 homers and 33 steals through 734 plate appearances. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots, though with Kevin Kiermaier serving as one of the game’s premier defenders in center, Pham’s home will likely be in an outfield corner. Of course, Kiermaier has also proven to be injury prone, and Pham provides some insurance in center during future seasons.

It’s worth noting that over the past two months, Pham’s output at the plate has plummeted. He’s posted just a .227/.292/.330 slash through his past 192 plate appearances, though his walk and strikeout rates have remained fairly constant in that time. Pham’s average on balls in play during that stretch is .278, though, and while that isn’t all that far below the league average, it’s considerably south of his career .339 mark. With a lifetime 40.6 percent hard-hit rate and a 22.1 percent line-drive rate, Pham has proven himself to be a hitter capable of sustaining a BABIP better than the league mean, so there’s some reason for the Rays to hope for a turnaround.

In return for Pham, the Cardinals will acquire a package of three prospects that, frankly, would’ve appeared underwhelming when Pham’s value was at its peak. It’s possible, of course, that St. Louis views Pham as an asset that is unlikely to rebound or is particularly high on one or more of the pieces coming over from Tampa Bay, but the package is lacking in the way of top-tier prospects.

Williams, 22, ranked as the Rays’ No. 14 prospect as of last week’s update from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. He’s posted a .258/.313/.376 batting line in 386 plate appearances in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching this season, though he notched a more encouraging .301/.364/.489 slash in Double-A last season. MLB.com’s report praises his athleticism and gives him the potential for 20-plus homer pop, noting that his offensive abilities are still a bit raw but he could become a well-rounded player in an outfield corner.

Cabrera, 21, has a 4.12 ERA with with 9.8 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 34.4 percent ground-ball rate in 113 2/3 innings at the Double-A level this season. He’s been playing against much more experienced competition and, in fact, is in his second run through Double-A after reaching the level as a 20-year-old last year. Callis and Mayo ranked him 25th in Tampa Bay’s system, noting that he has a projectable enough frame to potentially be a starter down the line but a strong enough fastball/slider combo to be a bullpen piece if that doesn’t pan out.

Ramirez, 23, is enjoying a solid season in the Double-A ’pen, having worked to a 3.32 ERA with 10.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 35.6 percent grounder rate in 40 2/3 innings of work. He’s closer to the Majors than Cabrera, it seems, given his more advanced age, status as a reliever and greater success at that level. He could conceivably emerge as a ’pen option in St. Louis either this season or next, though was not considered to be among the Rays’ top group of prospects.

Pirates Moving Closer Deal For Chris Archer

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Rays righty Chris Archer has seemingly been in trade rumors for years; is this the day he finally gets dealt?  Here’s the latest…

 Earlier Updates

  • As this morning’s prior updates indicated, it seems that Archer is drawing the keenest interest from National League organizations. If he’s dealt, he’ll likely be changing leagues, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. He tabs the Braves, Brewers, and Pirates as the likeliest organizations to work something out. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that the Dodgers are also in the picture.
  • The Pirates appear to be heavily involved in Archer’s market, at least as of last night, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). Though the Bucs at one point appeared likely to function as a seller, they have rushed back into a competitive position and struck a deal last night to improve their late-inning relief unit. Of course, that swap and any others that might come to fruition will likely be for affordable, controllable assets. In that regard, Archer certainly makes for a potential fit.
  • Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Padres’ pursuit of Archer has “lost momentum.” That’s a notable development, given that San Diego has been perhaps the most prominently linked team to the Rays righty over the past few days. While the Friars obviously aren’t contending in 2018, the team has its sights set on contending in 2019 and beyond, and adding Archer right now could have been a forward-looking move that would’ve helped to alleviate the 40-man roster crunch San Diego will inevitably face when setting its 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft this offseason.
  • Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that the Braves and Brewers are still in pursuit of Archer. Bowden lists some of the other organizations that have been in contact of late, though it’s not clear which remain firmly engaged on the popular right-hander. The Atlanta and Milwaukee organizations have been connected to controllable starting pitching for quite some time, of course, so it’s no surprise to see them lurking on Archer. Whether the trade deadline will provide sufficient impetus for either team to finally complete talks on a quality rotation piece remains to be seen.

Rays Ask For Final Offers On Chris Archer

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12:15pm: The Dodgers are also still “in play,” Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets.

6:09pm: Despite some prior indications to the contrary, the Yankees remain involved in Archer’s market, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter). There are five additional clubs still involved as well, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports: the Padres, Braves, Brewers, and two unnamed organizations.

5:24pm: The Rays have asked interested teams to make their best and final offers for right-hander Chris Archer, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa Bay has been in touch with roughly a dozen teams about Archer and could spend tonight and tomorrow morning reviewing those offers before ultimately making a call on whether to deal Archer.

It should be noted that it’s far from a certainty that Archer is dealt at all. There’s a mix in the tone of reports surrounding the possibility of an Archer trade that is likely reflective of the lack of an industry consensus on whether he’ll actually be traded. For instance, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that there’s a stronger sense than ever before that Archer will finally move, as the Rays are cognizant that he’s approaching his 30th birthday and this may be their final chance to get an enormous haul for him.

On the flipside, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to one executive familiar with the market who took an “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, meanwhile, spoke to an exec who said he still feels Tampa Bay will need to be “overwhelmed” and, despite years of rumors, still “[doesn’t] see it happening.”

The full slate of teams who have submitted (or plan on submitting) an offer for Archer isn’t yet known. Over the weekend, the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Cardinals were all connected rather prominently to Archer, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Yankees are viewed as an “unlikely” fit for Archer. Sherman added earlier today that the Pirates have jumped into the mix as well, while the Brewers and the Athletics have both at least touched base.

The Padres, meanwhile, have been rumored to be the most aggressive pursuing Archer, envisioning him as a rotation fixture in 2019 and beyond as San Diego emerges from its rebuild and aims to contend. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan wrote today that San Diego has been “especially engaged” in the Archer market, though he notes that the Friars have not yet been willing to meet Tampa Bay’s lofty asking price. Topkin wrote yesterday that a young catcher and controllable power-hitting outfielder would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point, though Tampa Bay will obviously be seeking numerous young pieces in return for three-plus years of the right-hander.

Archer, 29, obviously remains a popular trade target despite a month-long stint on the disabled list and some bottom-line results that haven’t lined up with his peripheral stats in recent seasons. That’s once again the case in 2018, as Archer is sitting on a 4.31 ERA despite possessing a 3.62 FIP and xFIP as well as a 3.75 SIERA. He’s averaged a strong 9.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 with Tampa Bay this season and has made moderate gains in terms of swinging-strike rate (13.6 percent) and chase rate (32.3 percent). Archer is allowing just one homer per nine innings after struggling with the long ball in recent seasons, and he’s also boosted his ground-ball rate nearly three percent, from 42.0 up to 44.7.

Of course, the big draw with Archer is the affordability of his contract. He’s owed $2.o8MM through the end of the current season and is guaranteed just $7.5MM in 2019 before the Rays (or an acquiring team) have club options valued at $9MM and $11MM for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In all, Archer can be controlled through 2021 for as little as $29.58MM, and in the event of a significant injury, he can be cut loose after 2019 and owed only a total of $11.33MM through the end of 2019.

Pirates Have Expressed Interest In Chris Archer

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The Pirates have emerged as a somewhat surprising entrant into the market for Rays right-hander Chris Archer, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Fancred’s Jon Heyman hears the same (Twitter link), adding that his sense is that Pittsburgh’s interest in Orioles righty Kevin Gausman has been overstated. Then again, Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette joined The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel in reporting that the Pirates do have interest in both Gausman and Orioles reliever Mychal Givens (Twitter link).

While the degree of interest in Archer and Gausman likely has some level of variance, it seems clear that the Bucs are throwing their hats into the ring on some controllable assets that could help to fortify their rotation for the next few years. Archer is controlled through the 2021 season at a reasonable total of $27.5MM, while Gausman can be controlled through the 2020 season via the arbitration process.

Both right-handers have shown flashes of elite abilities at times in the past, but neither has emerged as a clear top-of-the-rotation arm despite that obvious talent. The Pirates, under pitching coach Ray Searage, have developed a reputation for tapping into such potential in recent seasons, though the organization has had its share of misses as well. Gerrit Cole, for instance, struggled to tap into his ace potential consistently in Pittsburgh but has dramatically improved following a trade to Houston.

Pittsburgh raced out to a brilliant start to the 2018 season but floundered in the season’s middle months. They’ve surged back into contention with a torrid hot streak in recent weeks though, now sitting at 55-52. They’re still seven games out of the NL Central lead, trailing both the Cubs and the Brewers, but they’re a more manageable four games back of the Wild Card race.

Between reported interest in Archer, Gausman, Givens and Rangers closer Keone Kela, it doesn’t seem like the Bucs have much interest in dealing prospects for rentals. But, each of those four right-handers is controlled for at least two seasons beyond 2018, so it seems that the Pirates are willing to part with some future assets if it means bolstering their chances of contending for the next several seasons.

Trade Talks On Chris Archer “Intensifying”

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7:43pm: In an interview with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Archer called the trade chatter surrounding him “unsettling.” Topkin again notes that the industry sense is that Tampa Bay is more willing than ever to trade Archer, and he adds that a young catcher and a power-hitting outfield prospect would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point.

July 29, 8:58am: The Padres are still regarded as the favorites to land Archer if the Rays deal him, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The Braves are also interested, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who adds that the Rays had a pair of scouts watching Yankees pitching prospect Justus Sheffield at Triple-A on Saturday. However, it’s “a long shot” that the Yankees will acquire Archer, Sherman writes.

July 28, 12:50pm: Add the Yankees and Dodgers to the list of teams who’re pursuing Archer, according to a recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

10:43am: Chris Archer has been the subject of trade speculation all season, and now talks surrounding Tampa Bay’s prized right-hander are “intensifying”, per a report from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.

A trade isn’t quite imminent, it seems, as Crasnick notes that it’s difficult to judge whether or not a team will actually pay the Rays’ asking price. After all, Archer can be controlled through 2021 for an average of less than $8MM per season, and is unsurprisingly being donned with a “No. 1 starter type of price tag”. It’s certainly plausible that Archer could be a part of the next contending Rays ballclub considering the wealth of talent in Tampa Bay’s farm system (recently ranked the fourth-best in baseball by MLB.com), which boasts six players among MLB Pipeline’s top 70 prospects.

Then again, the Rays have seen a host of promising prospects go down with Tommy John surgery this season. Right-handers Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon and lefty Anthony Banda were all considered to be about major-league ready this season before each sprained his UCL and had to go under the knife. While one would expect all three to be ready to pitch again by the middle of next season based on the normal Tommy John recovery timeline, we know by now that the surgery isn’t a sure thing, and can lead to deeply-diminished production (Brady Aiken comes to mind as an example). It wouldn’t be out of the question, then, for the Rays to attempt to acquire an upside young arm along with some other valuable pieces in a package for their ace.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports noted soon after Crasnick’s report that the Padres (who have already been connected to Archer this season) have made progress in talks with the Rays, in part because Tampa Bay has shown “a greater willingness” to deal him. But Passan adds a dissent in agreeing that the price remains high, which has the Padres “balking for now.” We already know that the Padres are unwilling to exchange either of their top two prospects (shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and southpaw Mackenzie Gore), though they’ve shown a willingness to deal second baseman Luis Urias, right-hander Cal Quantrill and even recently-acquired catching prospect Francisco Mejia.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that the Cardinals “remain interested” in Archer, noting that the club attempted to deal for the 29-year-old just this past winter. Goold’s sources tell him that the Cards believe they can line up a “competitive offer”. It’s no surprise that St. Louis would be checking in on all available options to patch their injury-ravaged rotation; the club’s seen right-handers Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez succumb to oblique injuries and can’t know what type of late-2018 contributions to expect from either at this point. Meanwhile, top prospect Alex Reyes, who was expected to play a big role in the club’s plans this year, suffered a season-ending lat injury at the tail end of May. Adam Wainwright continues to be injury-prone and can’t be counted on for any type of meaningful production. The club is currently placing its playoff hopes on the resurgent Miles Mikolas and a cast of rookies including Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver and John Gant.

To be fair, it’s not clear whether Archer is truly worth the price of an “ace”. The right-hander has posted ERAs north of four in each of the past two seasons and currently sports a six-year high figure of 4.31. While it’s true that his FIP (3.62) suggests quite a bit of bad luck has been involved, the same can also be said of each of his previous three seasons- Archer has a reputation as a pitcher whose results consistently fail to keep up with his peripherals. Still, it’s easy to imagine him catching fire and putting together an impressive second-half run, a possibility which plenty of contenders would like to take a chance on.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Bucs, Archer, Rangers, Gallo, Beltre, Braves

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic comes via a series of tweets…

  • With the Pirates enjoying a midseason resurgence, general manager Neal Huntington made it clear last week that he’d like to strengthen the club’s roster prior to Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline. The Pirates have since been connected to relievers Keone Kela and Brad Brach in trade rumors, though they’re also interested in upgrading their starting staff. Pittsburgh, like many teams, is seeking a “controllable starter,” Rosenthal reports. However, he suggests that the Bucs don’t appear to be aggressive suitors for Rays right-hander Chris Archer, who’s under control through 2021 and has drawn vast interest leading up to the deadline.
  • Rangers slugger Joey Gallo was in the rumor mill Saturday, though it’s “unlikely” the team will deal him this summer, Rosenthal hears. Meanwhile, teammate Jake Diekman is the likeliest Ranger to end up on the move, Rosenthal adds. The left-handed reliever possesses a strong track record and an affordable salary ($2.7125MM), but he’s not controllable beyond this season. Diekman, 31, has pitched to a 3.79 ERA/3.48 FIP with 10.89 K/9, 5.45 BB/9 and a 45.4 percent groundball rate in 38 innings this year. Along with his control problems, Diekman has been surprisingly poor this season versus left-handed hitters, who have slashed .273/.429/.364 against him (on the other hand, righties have only hit .192/.292/.309). Historically, Diekman has been tough on both lefty- and righty-swingers.
  • The Braves have interest in both Diekman and fellow Rangers reliever Kela, Rosenthal and Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggest. Moreover, Atlanta’s willing to move left-hander Luiz Gohara to upgrade its team, per Rosenthal, with Sherman noting that the Rangers have been scouting the 21-year-old. Gohara hasn’t pitched much in the majors this year (19 2/3 innings, nine appearances, one start), in part because of injury issues. But he showed well during a five-start debut in 2017, after which Baseball America ranked him as the game’s 23rd-best prospect. There’s a “good chance” the Rangers will acquire Gohara if he “shows anything at all” in the minors Sunday, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets.
  • Sticking with Texas and Atlanta, Rosenthal reports that the Braves have greater interest in bolstering their pitching (perhaps via Diekman and Kela) than acquiring Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre. Rosenthal doesn’t rule out a Beltre acquisition for the Braves (though, as a 10-and-5 player, he’d need to approve the trade), but he points out that incumbent third baseman Johan Camargo has actually outhit the eventual Hall of Famer this season. The switch-hitting Camargo, 24, has done so on a league-minimum salary, too, while the 39-year-old Beltre is owed the balance of $18MM.
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