MLBTR Originals
It’s a new year, but MLBTR is bringing you the same up-to-the-minute transaction news and market evaluation. Lest there be a lull in the action, the MLBTR staff occasionally puts out original content. Let’s take a minute to gather that material and make sure you aren’t missing a beat. Here is some of the original content from MLBTR writers over the past week…
- Connor Byrne checked in on the Top 10 Remaining Free Agents and released his All-Decade Team. If you’ve got a bone to pick with Connor, join the club and find him in a weekly chat.
- The free agent market chugs right along, but just in case you missed anything, you can take stock of the starting pitching market here or the centerfield market here.
- From a team perspective, there are plenty of roster holes left to fill. To see where your team’s needs lie, check out the Remaining Needs Series, wrapped up with the AL East on New Year’s Eve.
- If you’re feeling combative, join us in a free agent faceoff!
- Jeff Todd did the uncomfortable work of reflection this week, putting together a list of The Most Notable Trades of the Last Decade.
- As always, we are eager to hear your opinion. Weigh in during our weekly chats or in the comments section of most posts, but always take the time to make your vote count in one our many weekly polls. This week, MLBTR readers voted Clayton Kershaw as the Starter of the Decade, pegged the Reds for between 85 and 89 wins, and denounced the Twins’ rotation additions by grading their offseason work with a C (an A grade received the least votes). Meanwhile, readers are split about whether the Rockies should trade Nolan Arenado, while firm to the tune of ~68% that the Cubs will trade a star, and that star is likeliest to be Kris Bryant.
- Lastly, a Dominic Smith trade has long been rumored, but he’s still a New York Met for now. Take a look at his trade candidacy – before it’s too late.
Dodgers To Activate Clayton Kershaw On Monday
APRIL 15: As expected, Kershaw is now back on the active roster. The club optioned righty Jaime Schultz to open roster space.
APRIL 11: Clayton Kershaw will come off the injured list to make his season debut on Monday when the Dodgers host the Reds, manager Dave Roberts revealed to reporters Thursday morning (Twitter link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).
Kershaw landed on the IL to begin the season due to a bout of shoulder inflammation that slowed his progress during Spring Training. He’s made a pair of minor league rehab starts since Opening Day — one with Triple-A Oklahoma City and a second with Double-A Tulsa — working six innings and tossing 81 pitches in the latter of the two. In total, Kershaw yielded four runs on nine hits and a pair of walks with a dozen strikeouts in 10 1/3 rehab innings.
Since it became apparent that Kershaw would require an IL stint to begin the season, the Dodgers have also lost both Rich Hill (knee strain) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (groin strain) to injuries. Those maladies pushed lauded southpaw Julio Urias into the rotation to begin the year after he’d been slated to open the 2019 campaign in the bullpen to manage his workload. He’s been limited to about 75 pitches in each of his two starts so far.
It’s not clear exactly how the Dodgers’ rotation will shake out in the coming weeks as both Hill and Ryu mend; Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling figure to join Kershaw in the starting five for now, and it’s possible that Urias will make another start or two until one of Hill or Ryu is able to step back into the fray. At some point, Urias will have to shift to the ‘pen, given that he only pitched a total of 22 innings between the Majors (postseason and regular season) and minors last year in his return campaign from major shoulder surgery in 2017.
NL Notes: Lester, Kershaw, Urias, Dahl
The Cubs‘ offense clicked in today’s home opener, but there’s still some cause for concern. Left-hander Jon Lester exited the game in the third inning due to tightness in his left hamstring, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Lester had singled and scored in the prior frame, and Wittenmyer notes that the southpaw was slow to get up after sliding safely into home plate. More will be known after an MRI tomorrow, as Wittenmyer tweets. While Lester says he’s optimistic and isn’t even counting out making his next scheduled start, it seems safe to assume he’ll miss at least one outing. If that comes to pass, the Cubs would likely have to turn to righty Tyler Chatwood to make a start, given that Mike Montgomery is currently on the injured list due to a lat strain.
Here’s more from the NL …
- Clayton Kershaw will make what is expected to be his final rehab start tomorrow for the Dodgers‘ Double-A affiliate, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. If Kershaw is indeed ready to be activated after that outing, he’ll step back into the rotation in place of fellow southpaw Julio Urias, Pedro Moura of The Athletic tweeted last night. Los Angeles hasn’t exactly felt Kershaw’s absence in the win-loss column, as they’re sitting at 8-2 on the season, but he’ll nevertheless be a boon to an already dangerous roster that sports baseball’s best run differential (+36). Urias has shown a velocity uptick to open the new season, but the Dodgers will be happy to take things slow given that he only returned from injury in time to record 15 2/3 total innings last year.
- Rockies left fielder David Dahl exited last night’s game early due to an abdominal injury sustained on a swing, writes MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. While the outfielder himself doesn’t believe he’ll need to miss an extended period of time, manager Bud Black offered a more cautious outlook, simply stating that the Rox have their “fingers crossed” and are hoping for a slight tweak as opposed to something like an oblique strain that would require a trip to the injured list. Dahl has been brilliant to start the 2019 season for the otherwise offensively challenged ballclub, raking at a .343/.385/.629 clip and getting a look as the team’s cleanup hitter. Should he require an IL stint, Raimel Tapia would figure to fill in during his absence.
Quick Hits: Extensions, Boras, Acuna, Dodgers, Pujols, Cards, Giants
Agent Scott Boras, who brought you the term “swellopt,” has now concocted a phrase to describe team-friendly extensions young major leaguers sign, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. “Great young players are getting what I call ‘snuff contracts,’” Boras told McCullough. “And a snuff contract is that they’re trying to snuff out the market. They know the player is a great player, and he’s exhibited very little performance. So they’re coming to him at 20 and 21, and I’m going to snuff out your ability to move, to go anywhere, to do anything, and your value. And I’m going to pay you maybe 40 cents on the dollar to do it. What’s my risk?” In Boras’ estimation, the eight-year, $100MM guarantee Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr., 21, signed this week is “the king of the snuff contracts,” as it hampers the outfielder’s career earning power while giving Atlanta what looks like a sweetheart deal for a franchise player in the making.
Acuna’s accord is one of a whopping 27 multiyear extensions doled out across the majors since Jan. 21, though the Dodgers haven’t joined the party, McCullough observes. Extensions have been almost nonexistent in Los Angeles under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who has only given out one (Clayton Kershaw‘s three-year, $93MM deal after last season) since taking the reins in 2014. But Friedman told McCullough he “wouldn’t be surprised if within the next 12 months we do some.” McCullough points to Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor as potential extension candidates for Friedman & Co.
- Speaking of Kershaw, the ace left-hander appears to be nearing his 2019 debut. Kershaw will make a minor league rehab start Tuesday, which could set him up for a Dodgers return Sunday, Jorge Castillo of the LA Times tweets. The three-time NL Cy Young winner, 31, has been shelved on account of shoulder troubles since late February. Consequently, this will be the fourth straight injury-shortened campaign for Kershaw, whose 162 innings-per-season average from 2016-18 fell well shy of the 215-frame mean he put up over the previous seven years.
- First baseman Albert Pujols dominated headlines in 2011 when he elected to leave St. Louis, where he spent the first 11 seasons of his Hall of Fame career, for the Angels’ 10-year, $254MM offer. Pujols’ decision came after the Cardinals and Marlins also proposed decade-long contracts worth upward of $200MM. Now 39 years old and with $87MM remaining on his deal, Pujols recently reflected on his choice to leave the Cardinals, telling Graham Bensinger (via ESPN.com): “I felt that the approach that they took wasn’t showing me that they wanted me to be a longtime Cardinal. I believe I made the right decision.” If his rapid deterioration in Anaheim is any indication, St. Louis dodged a bullet in losing Pujols, even though he won three NL MVPs and two World Series as a Cardinal. Pujols slashed an incredible .328/.420/.617, averaged more than seven fWAR per year and never appeared in fewer than 143 games in a season while with the Redbirds. On the other hand, the Anaheim version’s a .260/.315/.452 hitter who has been worth one win above replacement a year and has twice missed at least 45 games in a season.
- As is often the case with minor league contracts, catcher Stephen Vogt‘s agreement with the Giants includes a June 1 opt-out chance, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The Giants already have three backstops – Buster Posey, Erik Kratz and Aramis Garcia – occupying 40-man roster spots, which seems to decrease the 34-year-old Vogt’s odds of earning a promotion from Triple-A Sacramento. However, San Francisco’s a fan of the two-time All-Star’s bat and could summon him at some point, Schulman suggests. The former Ray, Athletic and Brewer hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2017, having missed all of last season because of shoulder surgery.
Rehab Notes: Polanco, Kershaw, Taylor
A grueling seven-month rehab process is finally nearing its end for Gregory Polanco, reports MLB.com’s Adam Berry, as the Pirates outfielder is set to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow for High-A Bradenton. The initial rehab outlook for the torn labrum on Polanco’s left shoulder was seven to nine months, so even a full 20-day rehab stay will have him set to return on the short end of the timeframe. The 27-year-old’s imminent return will be manna from the proverbial heaven for the run-starved Pirates, who’ve already lost outfielders Corey Dickerson and Lonnie Chisenhall to injuries at the season’s outset. Polanco’s status as a perennial breakout candidate finally came to fruition last year, as the big lefty slashed a career-best .254/.340/.499 (123 wRC+) in 130 games before suffering the injury in early September. His hard-hit rate, which had dipped to a shockingly pedestrian 25.9% in 2017, jumped nearly nine percentage points, and the newfound plate discipline he exhibited reaped huge benefits.
In further rehab news from around the game…
- Clayton Kershaw‘s dominant rehab performance on minor-league Opening Night doesn’t mean he’s ready for the show, writes Bill Plunkett of the OC Register. The three-time Cy Young award winner will need at least another rehab outing – this one in the 75-80 pitch range – before rejoining the big club in the coming weeks. Dampening the much-needed flames throughout the outing were the stadium’s radar gun readouts, which reportedly had the seven-time all-star sitting at a frightening 88-91 MPH with the fastball. A career-low 90.9 MPH average fastball velocity in ’18 led to the lefty’s lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season of 2008, and the once-untouchable ace was again vulnerable to the longball. The club may not need a halcyon Kershaw to contend for the pennant, and may not need him at all to run through a sloppy NL West. Still, even a compromised version of the lefty should be quite effective, and the Dodgers, who doubled down on their substantial investment this offseason, will continue to hold out out hope for the ace of seasons past.
- Per Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, Nationals outfielder Michael A. Taylor will play seven innings in a rehab game today. It’s good news for the Nationals, who expected the extra OF to miss “significant time” after he sprained his knee and hip mid-March. There seems to be precious little playing time in the Nats outfield for Taylor, who followed up a solid 2017 season with a .227/.287/.357 stinker last year. Strikeouts have long been an issue for the speedy centerfielder, who’s posted a K rate of 30% or higher in each of his four major-league seasons.
Health Notes: Kershaw, Perez, Johnson
Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw may not be all that far from returning to the MLB mound, but he has a few more steps to take. As Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter, the star hurler could soon be cleared for a minor-league rehab assignment — if he’s able to complete a live BP session tomorrow without incident. Supposing things go well and Kershaw is ready to resume competitive action next week, he’ll still need to build up his pitch count before returning to the Dodgers roster. It’s not yet clear how many rehab starts he’d need before being activated.
More health notes from around the game …
- The Tigers announced Friday that pitching prospect Franklin Perez will miss the first four to six weeks of the season due to tendinitis in his right shoulder. He’ll rehab at the team’s spring facility in Lakeland, Fla. for the time being. The shoulder tendinitis is the latest health-related setback for 21-year-old, who also missed most of the 2018 campaign with lat and shoulder issues. Perez, who threw just 19 1/3 innings last seasons, was one of the key pieces Detroit received from the Astros in the 2017 blockbuster that sent Justin Verlander to Houston. Considered at the time of that deal to be one of baseball’s premier minor league arms, Perez has seen his prospect star dim as injuries have prevented him from taking the hill. Fortunately for the Tigers, he’s still quite young and has ample time to develop, but the ongoing arm issues are a troubling trend.
- There’s an even tougher diagnosis for Marlins prospect Osiris Johnson, as Wells Dusenbery of the Sun Sentinel reports on Twitter. The youngster appears to be sidelined for all of the 2019 season after undergoing surgery for a right tibial stress fracture. Taken in the second round of last year’s draft, the shortstop is considered a high-risk, high-upside talent. He turned in good results at the Rookie level but stumbled in a late promotion to the Class A level. This was to be an important year of development for Johnson, who only turned 18 last October.
Injury/Rehab Notes: Kershaw, Jeffress, Nelson, Darvish, Phillies
It’s been a fait accompli for weeks now, but Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts made it official today that Clayton Kershaw will open the season on the injured list (link via Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times). Kershaw has been slowed by inflammation in his left shoulder for much of the spring and has not been pitching in Cactus League games recently. He’ll face live hitters tomorrow, per Castillo. There’s no indication at present that Kershaw will miss a substantial portion of the upcoming season. Castillo, in fact, notes that Kershaw won’t pitch in the upcoming series of exhibition games against the Angels, beginning on Sunday, because withholding him will allow the Dodgers to back-date his IL placement by the maximum three days (thus creating the possibility of an earlier return). It’s been a month since Kershaw has thrown in a game setting, though, so there’s still some work to be done in terms of getting him back up to speed.
A few more updates on some notable injury situations…
- Both Jeremy Jeffress and Jimmy Nelson will open the season on the injured list, Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns confirmed today (Twitter links, with video, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt). The concern regarding each player appears to be relatively mild, as Stearns even emphasized that Jeffress isn’t so much hurt as he is dealing with weakness in his shoulder while trying to build up strength. Stearns declined to place a definitive timeline on either pitcher but indicated that it’s plausible that Jeffress could return to the team before the end of April. Nelson, meanwhile, will jump right into rehab games for Triple-A San Antonio to open the season, and he’ll be further evaluated after his first couple of starts.
- Cubs fans braced for bad news when trainers visited Yu Darvish on the mound today and the righty exited the game, however the ailment in question proved to be minor. The Cubs announced that Darvish exited the game with a blister, and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets that the right-hander doesn’t even expect to miss a start. Darvish cut the blister open while throwing a breaking ball on what proved to be his final pitch of the afternoon.
- Phillies right-hander Tommy Hunter and outfield hopeful Roman Quinn are expected to open the 2019 season on the injured list, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Hunter has been slowed by a flexor strain this spring, while Quinn is sidelined for now due to an oblique strain. Quinn’s placement on the IL buys the Phillies a little bit of time in determining how to sort out their outfield picture. With Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen locked into the corners, the Phillies have four remaining outfielders — Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Quinn — with minimal at-bats to go around. That situation is complicated further by the fact that Altherr and Quinn are both out of minor league options. Something will have to give eventually, but until Quinn is up to full strength, the Phillies can continue to keep him and Altherr both in the organization.
SP Notes: Keuchel, Braves, Eovaldi, Astros, Angels, Phils, Kershaw
With left-hander Dallas Keuchel still unemployed, the big-name free agent’s preparing for the season by “going through a full Spring Training, just like [Kyle] Lohse did,” agent Scott Boras told Jon Morosi of MLB.com earlier this week. Boras was referring to Lohse’s protracted trip to free agency six years ago, which ended March 25, 2013, with a three-year, $33MM agreement to join the Brewers. The majority of MLB followers expected Keuchel, 31, to land a far richer deal than that when the offseason began, but the onetime AL Cy Young winner has instead watched in recent months as most of the majors’ other high-profile free agents have come off the board. Still, the longtime Astro “is receiving offers,” Boras informed Morosi, who writes that the Braves are monitoring Keuchel’s market but are leery of surrendering a draft pick to sign the qualifying offer recipient. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported earlier this week Atlanta would “consider” Keuchel on a short-term deal; regardless of contract length, signing Keuchel would only cost the Braves their third-highest draft pick in 2019.
The latest on a couple other established starters…
- Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox on a four-year, $68MM contract in December, but only after the right-hander drew serious interest from elsewhere. The Angels and Phillies “really wanted” Eovaldi, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, though the feeling wasn’t mutual. During the free-agent process, Eovaldi informed his agency, ACES, he only wanted to sign with the Red Sox or his hometown Astros, according to Bradford. But the Astros, despite the questions in their rotation, didn’t pursue the 29-year-old. “Houston is home for me,” Eovaldi told Bradford. “I would have had more talks with the Astros but they just didn’t want any part of it so they were out of the question. While Eovaldi added that he was “a little surprised” the Astros ignored him, he’s happy to be back in Boston after helping the club to a championship in 2018.
- Clayton Kershaw has been the starter for the Dodgers’ last eight Opening Days, but it appears the superstar southpaw’s streak is on the verge of ending. Manager Dave Roberts said Friday (via ESPN.com) it’s “unlikely” Kershaw will take the ball for the Dodgers on March 28 in their season-opening game against the Diamondbacks. Kershaw has been battling shoulder inflammation throughout the spring, which has prevented the three-time NL Cy Young winner from making an appearance in the Cactus League and from throwing offspeed pitches during his rehab. Set to turn 31 on March 19, Kershaw’s entering the first season of a three-year, $93MM contract – a deal that’s off to an inauspicious start.
West Notes: Verlander, Kershaw, Rangers
Astros righty Justin Verlander chatted yesterday about his pending free agency with Jon Heyman of MLB Network (all links to Twitter). While he’s keeping an open door to remaining in Houston, it doesn’t sound as if there’s any expectation of reaching a deal this spring. Verlander, who’s still at the top of his game at 36 years of age, reiterated his previously stated intention to pitch well into his forties. That expectation won’t lead him to chase the longest-possible guarantee in free agency, though. Having already secured career earnings in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Verlander says he’ll prioritize annual salary and other considerations while remaining “cognizant” of how his contract fits in the larger market picture. Further to that point, the veteran notes that big deals for this winter’s very best free agents have tended to mask the down-market struggles and number of teams that are not seeking to compete.
More from the western divisions …
- Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw threw to a catcher today from flat ground, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group reports in a series of tweets. That still counts as notable progress for the vaunted hurler, who also long-tossed and does not seem to have reported any issues. Shoulder issues have slowed Kershaw thus far in camp, but he has seemed to be on the upswing of late. Filling in for him early on shouldn’t be a problem for a Dodgers club that has a deep staff to call upon, but the early health issues are of greater concern given the recent history. Kershaw, who’ll soon turn 31, has now missed starts in each of the past three seasons and is under contract for three seasons and $93MM.
- While the Rangers recently worked out a new deal with reliever Jose Leclerc, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that it’s far from clear they’ll land any other extensions this spring. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara appear to be hypothetical candidates, but both say they’re not presently engaged with the club. That could still change; Gallo and Mazara each say they are willing to listen and are interested in remaining in Texas. Otherwise, it’s tough to identify any reasonable candidates on the roster.
NL Notes: Phillies, Kershaw, Strahm
As it plodded forward over a period of months, the free agency of Bryce Harper was more laborious than intriguing for the outside observer. But the twists and turns, the strategies and stratagems, and the overriding uncertainty that blanketed the process are all much more interesting when told in a retrospective, narrative form. In a subscriber-only post, Matt Gelb of The Athletic has penned one of the most fascinating hot stove stories in memory regarding the Phillies‘ high-stakes offseason, which culminated recently with the signing of Harper. The 26-year-old star set out seeking a record-setting deal in all aspects (length, guarantee, AAV), per Gelb. He also told the Philadelphia organization during their mid-January meeting that he wanted to pick a long-term home and wasn’t interested in opt-outs. Meanwhile, the club was amply willing to make a lengthy commitment, so long as the competitive balance tax burden wasn’t too onerous. The club’s initial $330MM offer was for a 15-year term, with the final deal coming together when the Phils agreed to knock two years off of the length. By the end of the impeccably crafted article, Harper’s free agent process feels like a roller coaster — a thrilling ride with an utterly predictable result. As Gelb puts it, at the moment of decision, the organization realized that this was “a lifetime deal, a marriage between a starved franchise and the game’s most marketable star.”
Frankly, there’s no substitute for reading the full account, which paints a vibrant picture of the Phils’ winter efforts. Here’s more from the National League:
- Although the Dodgers remain hopeful that Clayton Kershaw will be ready to make his ninth consecutive Opening Day start, manager Dave Roberts acknowledged to reporters Monday that the left-hander may not be ready to go come March 28 (link via Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times). Kershaw threw from 60 to 70 feet Monday, per DiGiovanna, and Roberts indicated that the lefty continues to trend in the right direction. Even if Kershaw isn’t ready for the opener, there’s no indication to this point that he’d need to miss significant time early in the season. Indeed, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets, Roberts says that Kershaw emerged from his throwing session today feeling “pretty excited” with how he felt. Understandably, Roberts also suggested that there’s too much emphasis being placed on Opening Day. If Kershaw isn’t ready to go, the Dodgers will still have Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling as viable rotation pieces, with Brock Stewart and Caleb Ferguson serving as depth options.
- Padres skipper Andy Green has suggested that the main factor in determining whether lefty Matt Strahm will be in the rotation or bullpen will simply be whether he’s able to get stretched out this spring, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. Strahm tossed 40 pitches in today’s three-inning spring outing, Acee notes, which could bode well for the southpaw’s chances given that there are still three weeks of camp remaining. Strahm, 27, was primarily a reliever in San Diego last season but has started at the minor league level in the past — primarily with the Royals. While Strahm shined as a bullpen option in San Diego last season, it’s understandable that the Friars would want to see if they could potentially coax more innings out of the intriguing southpaw.