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George Springer

MLBTR Poll: George Springer’s Future

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Longtime Astros outfielder George Springer entered free agency this winter as one of the most coveted players on the open market. Understandably so, as the 31-year-old hit an excellent .270/.361/.491 with 174 home runs in 3,567 plate appearances from 2014-20. Thanks to his tremendous output in Houston’s uniform, MLBTR ranked Springer as the third-best free agent available at the beginning of the offseason, projecting him for a five-year, $125MM contract.

Almost two months into free agency, the Astros, Mets and Blue Jays are the only teams with reported interest in Springer. It’s unclear, though, whether the Astros are willing to dole out another nine-figure contract, despite what Springer has meant to the club. The Mets, led by deep-pocketed rookie owner Steve Cohen, could turn to Springer as their new center fielder, though that might mean trading one of their other outfielders (Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith). Similarly, the Blue Jays have a decent outfield on paper with Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. However, the team doesn’t appear content with Grichuk as its center fielder, so it could bring in Springer and let go of Grichuk or one of its other outfielders in a deal.

While Houston, New York and Toronto look like the front-runners to sign Springer, a “mystery team” could step in and steal the three-time All-Star. Which club do you expect to sign Springer? (Poll link for app users)

Who will sign George Springer?
Mets 53.02% (11,607 votes)
Blue Jays 21.45% (4,696 votes)
Other 14.31% (3,132 votes)
Astros 11.22% (2,455 votes)
Total Votes: 21,890

Mets Looking Into Tomoyuki Sugano

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The Mets are “looking into” right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano as they seek to upgrade their rotation, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sugano was posted for MLB clubs earlier this month, and teams have until Jan. 7 to complete a contract with him before that posting window expires.

New York has been prominently connected to Trevor Bauer as a potential free-agent target, but numerous reports have indicated over the past week-plus that George Springer is the team’s primary focus at the moment. Sherman agrees, calling Springer the “centerpiece” of their offseason plans. As such, an expectation has emerged that the Mets will look to the second tier of starting pitchers in their search to augment their rotation, and the 31-year-old Sugano is arguably the best of the bunch.

[Related: Yomiuri Giants Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Clubs]

One of the premier pitchers in Japan, Sugano is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Nippon Professional Baseball’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. After a “down” 2019 season that saw him log a 3.89 ERA, Sugano rebounded with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball in 2020, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames. Of note, Sherman writes that large-market teams may have the upper hand in pursuing Sugano, as NPB’s Giants are viewed as the “Yankees of Japan,” playing their home games at the famed Tokyo Dome.

It’s not clear just what type of arrangement Sugano will command on the open market, but a multi-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary seems reasonable to anticipate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a two-year, $24MM deal in his updated free-agent rankings and contract predictions. If a team believes Sugano to be closer to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in MLB, it’s certainly possible that he could secure a third year or a hike on that annual salary.

The Mets, of course, have Jacob deGrom atop their rotation and will also rely on Marcus Stroman after the righty accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rookie David Peterson was impressive in a limited 2020 debut, and lefty Steven Matz was also tendered a contract despite a recent downturn in his production. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, will be out until this coming summer due to Tommy John surgery.

Emboldened by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are a clear win-now team under the watch of returning president Sandy Alderson and newly hired GM Jared Porter. With James McCann and Trevor May already signed to multi-year deals, further additions are a given. If the plan is indeed to add a second-tier arm and make Springer the focus, then Sugano would join Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Corey Kluber among the best remaining rotation options on the open market.

To this point in his posting window, Sugano has also been connected to the Red Sox, the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Given his stature in Japan, it’s all but certain that Sugano will receive interest from the majority of pitching-needy clubs who are willing to spend in the wake of this year’s revenue losses. In addition to the money owed to Sugano on a new contract, the team that signs him will owe a release fee to NPB’s Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter (including option years, incentives, etc.).

Blue Jays, Mets Seen As Strongest Suitors For George Springer

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It’s been a slow-moving market for all of the game’s top free agents, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan shines some light on where things stand with George Springer, reporting that the Blue Jays and Mets are generally viewed as the two strongest possibilities for the longtime Astros slugger.

Newly hired Mets general manager Jared Porter plainly acknowledged in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM last week that Springer is “going to be part of the process” as they evaluate options on the high end of both the free-agent and trade markets (Twitter link, with audio). As one would expect, Porter didn’t tip his hand as to anything more specific, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi did write recently that the Mets are “focused” on Springer at the moment.

In some ways, it’s not particularly surprising to see. The Mets and Jays are widely seen as the two teams most willing to spend this winter, and both could use an impact center fielder. Other teams who are seen as potentially active clubs have reason not to aggressively pursue Springer.

Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has suggested his team will focus on pitching and look at more “complementary” hitters. The Yankees are focused on DJ LeMahieu, and their outfield is crowded as is. The Red Sox’ most pressing need is in the rotation, given the uncertainty around the health of their veteran starters. The Twins are focused on Nelson Cruz and their pitching staff. The Braves have eschewed this type of long-term deal under GM Alex Anthopoulos and may be more apt to retain Marcell Ozuna if they do make an uncharacteristic outfield splash. The White Sox have already signed Adam Eaton. Houston is an obvious fit, but an extension between the two sides never came together and the price surely hasn’t come down now that Springer has the benefit of open-market bidding for his services.

Free agency is an ever-fluid situation, as various factors can rapidly change a player’s market. A team could trade a current outfielder or lose someone to injury. An owner not expected to spend lavishly could have a change of heart or be swayed by a direct meeting with Springer’s representatives. However, Passan writes that as things stand right now, executives from other clubs view the  Springer market as a two-horse race between the Jays and Mets.

The Mets have already been aggressive early, signing James McCann (four years, $40.6MM) and Trevor May (two years, $15.5MM) to early deals that bolster the club while still leaving Porter and president Sandy Alderson ample payroll space. The Mets currently owe just shy of $95MM to a combined 10 players, though they have just as many yet-unsigned arbitration-eligible players to whom they tendered contracts. Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz headline that group, but most of the group is in line for relatively small-scale salaries. It’s be a surprise if, after their arb work was completed, the current iteration of the Mets roster exceeded a $150MM payroll by much.

The financial outlook in Toronto is even cleaner. Toronto owes about $57.5MM to seven players in addition to forthcoming arbitration raises for two players: Ross Stripling and Teoscar Hernandez. They only have $35MM in guaranteed salaries on the 2022 books, with Tanner Roark, Robbie Ray, Shun Yamaguchi and Rafael Dolis set to come off the books. Signing Springer would likely necessitate a move sending Randal Grichuk elsewhere, and while his remaining three years and $28MM is an overpay, it’s not so glaring that the Jays couldn’t reasonably expect to find a creative solution.

Astros Notes: Correa, Springer, Brantley, Smith, Pettis

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Here’s the latest out of Houston:

  • Shortstop Carlos Correa’s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors last month, and general manager James Click said Thursday (via Mark Berman of Fox 26) that they are “open to all avenues” that could improve the franchise. However, Click added that Correa’s presence “makes it a lot easier to win,” so it doesn’t seem a deal is imminent if the Astros are aiming to earn a fifth straight playoff berth in 2021. The bigger question might be whether the Astros will retain Correa for the long haul, as he’s due to become one of the game’s most coveted free agents after next season.
  • In the here and now, the Astros are facing a couple of big losses in free agency in outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley, who are currently on the open market. Springer looks as if he’ll earn a nine-figure contract this offseason. Brantley won’t cash in to that extent, but he should do well in his own right. It will be a challenge for the Astros to re-sign either of them, but Click indicated (via Berman) that they’re interested in doing so. “We are engaged on a number of fronts, those guys included,” said Click. “We will continue to put our best foot forward there and see if we can keep the team together.” If the Astros aren’t able to retain those two, though, they will “be ready to bring in some players that can help us out,” according to Click.
  • Veteran reliever Joe Smith missed all of last season after opting out over family health concerns, though the right-hander told Jake Kaplan of The Athletic that he wants to play in 2021 (Kaplan’s piece is worth a full read for those who want more information on Smith’s decision). The 36-year-old Smith has been an asset to a handful of teams’ bullpens throughout his career, so if he does come back next season, he should once again help Houston. Smith has one year and $4MM left on his contract.
  • Click revealed that the Astros expect third base coach Gary Pettis to return in 2021, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Pettis missed the end of the season after a multiple myeloma diagnosis in September. The former major league outfielder, 62, has been on the Astros’ staff since 2015.

Latest On White Sox’ Outfield Targets

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Despite a clear opening in their outfield, the White Sox are “extraordinarily unlikely” to sign George Springer this winter, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The longtime Astros slugger has plenty of interest elsewhere, and Passan suggests that the ChiSox aren’t keen on paying “center-field prices for a corner outfielder.”

That’s perhaps an overly simplistic means of describing the situation, given that there are plenty of highly paid corner outfielders — some whose current contracts top whatever Springer will eventually command in free agency (e.g. Bryce Harper). However, it’s also fair to say that a considerable portion of Springer’s value is tied to the fact that he is not only a vastly above-average hitter but an above-average defender at a premium position. By all indications he’d be a strong defender in right field as well, but it seems his asking price and the Sox’ valuation of a corner outfielder — even an extremely well-rounded one — don’t align.

Right field is still a glaring need for a White Sox club that predictably non-tendered Nomar Mazara after a miserable debut season on the South Side. Fleet-footed Adam Engel gives them an option, although his track record prior to the 2020 season was that of a replacement-level player. At the very least, a left-handed bat to pair with Engel in a platoon setting would be sensible for the Sox to pursue.

To that end, it’s worth adding that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal lists the White Sox as one of the teams with “at least some” interest in free-agent slugger Joc Pederson. Passan suggests that perhaps Michael Brantley could be a fit as well, although Brantley has just 58 career innings in right field. He’s spent the bulk of his career in left field with some frequent work in center field as well during his younger days. (NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien makes a pitch for the Sox to bring Adam Eaton back into the fold, although that’s purely an opinion piece and not an indication that the two sides have actually spoken about a reunion.)

Pederson isn’t a new name to be connected to the White Sox. There’s been little to solidly connect the two sides up to now in the current offseason, but this is now the third consecutive offseason that has seen the White Sox reported to have interest in Pederson. The Sox and Dodgers talked about a potential Pederson swap in both the 2018-19 and 2019-20 offseasons, although they obviously weren’t able to come to an agreement.

For the Sox, Pederson would likely be a pure platoon partner for Engel, as his career .191/.266/.310 slash against lefties is difficult for any club to stomach. He doesn’t hit for a high average against righties, either, but Pederson walks at a near-13 percent clip and boasts top-of-the-scale power when he’s holding the platoon advantage, as evidenced by a .238/.349/.501  batting line (128 wRC+). Brantley would be more of an everyday option, as he generally hits for average and gets on base regardless of opponent, although the bulk of his power comes against righties only. Again, though, it’s not an ideal defensive fit for Brantley, who’d probably require some time at DH as well.

Adding a lefty bat is in many ways a sensible approach for the White Sox, whose lineup is rife with right-handed bats. Outside of switch-hitters Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, the Sox’ starting lineup is entirely right-handed; Jose Abreu, Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert all bat from the right side, as does top prospect Andrew Vaughn, who could factor into the team’s DH mix at some point in 2021.

Mets Notes: Odorizzi, Springer, Bauer, Owens, Shreve

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The Mets were linked to Jake Odorizzi’s market last month, though the team doesn’t appear to be one of the front-runners for the right-hander’s services, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Odorizzi “is believed to be much more engaged with other teams right now.”  We heard yesterday that the Twins were also falling behind in the race to sign Odorizzi, which could potentially mean good news for the Giants and Blue Jays — the other two teams cited as having interest in Odorizzi back in November.

San Francisco and Toronto are two of the teams considered to be most fervently exploring the pitching market thus far, with Sherman also listing the Padres, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels as being particularly keen on adding arms.  It’s probably safe to guess that at least a couple of those teams have also checked in on Odorizzi, who was projected by MLBTR to receive a three-year, $39MM free agent deal.

More from Citi Field…

  • Also from Sherman, he opines that the Mets’ pitching plans could be altered by what happens with Trevor Bauer, as Bauer and George Springer appear to be the team’s top targets.  “It is possible they are planning to make just one substantial purchase,” Sherman writes, so the Mets could turn towards Odorizzi or other pitchers if Springer is signed rather than Bauer.  A trade target like Reds right-hander Sonny Gray could also be explored, with Sherman theorizing that Amed Rosario could interest a Cincinnati team known to be looking for shortstop help.
  • After speculation earlier in the offseason that Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens could be a candidate to join the Mets, the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reports that the Mets have, at least, “held internal discussions” about Owens, though it isn’t known if Owens has actually interviewed for the team’s general manager vacancy.  Owens has a prior relationship with Mets president Sandy Alderson, as Alderson worked as a senior advisor to the Oakland front office for the last two seasons before returning to the Mets.
  • Chasen Shreve was non-tendered by the Mets prior to Wednesday’s deadline, and MLBTR’s arbitration projections had Shreve in line for an arbitration salary of between $800K and $1.1MM.  However, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that minor league deal Shreve signed with the Mets last offseason paid the left-hander a $1.5MM base salary upon reaching the majors, so Shreve’s arbitration number would have been closer to $2MM.  While not a major financial difference for a reliever who pitched pretty well in 2020, DiComo figures the Mets believe they can find either a less-expensive pitcher who can match or better Shreve’s 2020 performance, or they’re saving money for a bigger-ticket addition.  Shreve was also out of options, which undoubtedly also factored into New York’s non-tender decision.

Mets Rumors: Springer, McCann

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Free-agent outfielder George Springer could be the No. 1 offseason target for the Mets, according to SNY’s Andy Martino, who writes that the longtime Astro “remains heavily in the mix.” Meanwhile, Martino hears that the Mets are more aggressively going after catcher James McCann than fellow backstop J.T. Realmuto.

Springer would join an already loaded Mets outfield that includes Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith as potential options for 2021. Nimmo was the only member of that group to line up in center field last season, though he struggled to minus-five Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.1 Ultimate Zone Rating over 308 1/3 innings there. Conversely, Springer posted six DRS with a minus-0.4 UZR across 338 innings, and he has typically performed well at the position since he first debuted there in 2014.

Of course, anyone who signs Springer wouldn’t be doing so primarily because of his defense. Rather, that team would be adding him on account of the immense impact Springer has made with his bat. This past season was the latest tremendous offensive effort for the 31-year-old Springer, who slashed .265/.359/.540 (146 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 222 plate appearances.

The Mets seem to have a bigger need behind the plate than in their outfield, as Wilson Ramos and Robinson Chirinos are free agents. The most established catcher on their roster is Tomas Nido, who owns a woeful line of .197/.234/.319 (46 wRC+) in 270 MLB plate appearances. That suggests the team will upgrade from outside the organization in the coming months. McCann, who’s coming off an impressive season, should cost far less than Realmuto, but he won’t be easy to acquire for the Mets and deep-pocketed owner Steve Cohen. At least six teams have shown interest in McCann early this offseason, so there will be plenty of competition to sign him.

Latest On Blue Jays, George Springer

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George Springer is one of the most prominent of the many free agents the Blue Jays are reportedly exploring this offseason, though the Jays’ initial interest in Springer seems to be developing.  According to Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have “progressed beyond just talking” with Springer, which would seem to indicate that Toronto has issued at least one offer to the former World Series MVP.

Such a step doesn’t necessarily indicate that a deal could be close, or even that Springer is the Blue Jays’ top free agent target.  However, the Jays already made one early signing in bringing Robbie Ray back to the club on a one-year contract, and the wide net Toronto is seemingly casting over so many free agents could indicate that the Blue Jays are looking to strike while many other teams are still figuring out their payrolls or (along those same lines) planning to wait to make moves later in the offseason in order to find bargains.  Davidi opines that the Jays first seem to be looking at position players in order to “nail down their lineup adds, figure out what’s staying, and then trade to get pitching help.”

From Springer’s perspective, there are pros and cons to signing early (with the Jays or any other team).  Signing a deal now would allow him to avoid any prolonged uncertainty on the open market and allow him to entirely focus on the 2021 season with his new team.  If the Blue Jays are one of relatively few teams who reportedly have money to spend this winter, signing would ensure that Springer can get top dollar rather than see Toronto spend its payroll on other players and then leaving Springer short a major suitor.

On the other hand, while the expected free agent crunch should impact players in the middle and lower tiers of the market, Springer and the other top-tier free agent names can safely assume they’ll still find an appropriately big payday.  MLBTR ranked Springer third on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected a hefty five-year, $125MM deal for the outfielder, even as he enters his age-31 season.  As such, Springer faces no real rush to sign immediately since he knows a big contract awaits somewhere.

Springer might also want to wait for his market to fully reveal itself, once more teams do get their budgets finalized and more offers emerge.  For instance, the Mets don’t seem to be fully diving into offseason moves until they figure out their front office situation, and loom as a potential bidder for just about anyone.  “While the Blue Jays may be willing to set the market, agents will probably want to wait for the Mets to drop the gauntlet,” Davidi writes.

Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

Who will sign first?
DJ LeMahieu 40.45% (5,845 votes)
George Springer 22.66% (3,274 votes)
Trevor Bauer 18.78% (2,714 votes)
J.T. Realmuto 18.11% (2,617 votes)
Total Votes: 14,450

George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers

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The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).

Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.

Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.

Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).

The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.

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