East Notes: Lindor, Yankees, Springer, Mets, Jays, Braves
The Yankees never made a formal offer to the Indians in talks regarding Francisco Lindor, writes Buster Olney of ESPN. The two teams kicked around frameworks involving Lindor before Cleveland dealt him and right-hander Carlos Carrasco to the Mets, but the Yankees evidently never put an official proposal on the table. It seems the Yankees were deterred by Lindor’s lofty projected arbitration salary for 2021, which eventually landed at $22.3MM. New York’s main focus all winter has been agreeing to a long-term deal with DJ LeMahieu, which the team finally pulled off this week.
More out of the East divisions:
- The Mets and Blue Jays have been the two teams most closely connected to George Springer this winter. Jon Morosi of MLB.com feels the Mets have the geographical upper hand, noting that the Connecticut native and former UConn star would prefer to play close to home. (Springer’s home town of New Britain is approximately a two-hour drive from Queens, compared to seven-plus hours to Toronto). Of course, geographical ties of this sort are often discussed as potential tiebreakers for prominent free agents but are rarely enough to overcome significant discrepancies in teams’ respective contract proposals. Indeed, Morosi acknowledges the possibility the Mets eventually turn their attention elsewhere, particularly if they manage to sign reliever Brad Hand.
- More from Olney, who notes that the Braves “appear highly unlikely” to re-sign outfielder Marcell Ozuna. The 30-year-old slugger had an incredible season in Atlanta after signing a one-year deal last offseason. Ozuna is now in line for a much bigger multi-year accord this winter. That doesn’t fit the general approach of Braves’ GM Alex Anthopolous, who has tended to shy away from longer-term deals since taking over baseball operations. Just last winter, the Braves watched Josh Donaldson, who had starred on a similar pillow contract in 2019, walk for a four-year deal with the Twins. MLBTR projects a $72MM accord over that same length for Ozuna.
Latest On J.T. Realmuto, George Springer
The Phillies have made a five-year offer worth “slightly” more than $100MM to free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, according to Jayson Stark of The Athletic. It’s the second such offer the team has made to Realmuto since last spring, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who adds that there’s “a groundswell of optimism” that Philadelphia will re-sign the two-time All-Star.
The 29-year-old Realmuto spent the previous two seasons in Philadelphia, where the ex-Marlin continued his run as the majors’ premier catcher. Realmuto made it known during those two years that he wanted to remain a Phillie for the long haul, so it’s unsurprising that the team is putting forth a serious effort to keep him. The Phillies have “begun to position themselves as the favorite” in the Realmuto derby, Stark writes, in part because other potential suitors seem to be fading away.
The Mets, who looked like one of the front-runners to get Realmuto when the offseason started, signed James McCann instead. The Yankees probably aren’t in the mix after agreeing to re-sign second baseman DJ LeMahieu for $90MM and retaining catcher Gary Sanchez. The Angels may not be involved after agreeing to sign veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki on Friday, while Stark notes that the Rangers “seem unlikely” to dole out a nine-figure contract at this juncture. The Astros look like a fit for Realmuto, but as a qualifying offer recipient, signing Realmuto would require giving up draft picks, and they’re reportedly hesitant to do that. The Nationals have shown interest in Realmuto, though it’s unknown whether they’re willing to hand out $100MM-plus in this case.
The Realmuto sweepstakes may ultimately come down to the Phillies and the Blue Jays, who have been in on seemingly every star player this winter. However, per Stark and Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Toronto’s main focus appears to be free-agent outfielder George Springer. The Jays regard center field as a bigger need than catcher, which is why they’re making a greater push for Springer.
Lindor Notes: Extension, Springer, Jays, Odorizzi, Yankees
The Mets swung a massive trade Thursday when they unexpectedly acquired superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland. It’s the biggest story in baseball at the moment, so reactions have come pouring in over the past several hours. Here’s some of the fallout from the deal…
- Lindor is only under control for one more season, in which he’ll make a projected $17.5MM to $21.5MM, though the Mets will try to keep him around beyond then. Mets president Sandy Alderson said the team will “broach in the next few weeks” an extension with the four-time All-Star, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. That’s not surprising news, as the Mets had to part with four young players (Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene) to get the deal done, and new owner Steve Cohen certainly has the money to pay Lindor on a long-term contract.
- While the Mets may be willing to keep Lindor around for the foreseeable future, it never seemed realistic for low-budget Cleveland to sign him to an extension. The club knew last spring it wouldn’t be able to extend Lindor, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who reports that it offered the 27-year-old $200MM. That didn’t come close, though, as Lindor was then seeking upward of $300MM.
- In the wake of the Lindor/Carrasco trade, the Mets aren’t necessarily finished making big-ticket acquisitions, though it’s “less likely” they will sign free-agent outfielder George Springer because of an unwillingness to exceed the $210MM luxury-tax threshold, Andy Martino of SNY writes. New York is in the $190MM payroll vicinity at the moment, and it would like to open the season around $5MM to $10MM under the $210MM mark, Martino reports. The Mets have been tied throughout the offseason to Springer, arguably the top position player on the open market. The former Astro wants a deal in the $175MM range, but the Mets have been short of that at around five years and $150MM, according to Martino. The Blue Jays, who have also been in on Springer, are in the five-year, $115MM range, Martino relays.
- The Mets had interest in free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi earlier in the offseason, but getting Carrasco put the kibosh on that, as Martino writes that they’re no longer in the running to sign him. The Mets are slated to rely on Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carrasco and David Peterson as their top four starters, at least until Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery during the summer.
- With DJ LeMahieu currently a free agent, the Yankees were speculative candidates to make a deal for Lindor. While the team did inquire about Lindor before the crosstown rival Mets reeled him in, the Yankees’ main focus has continued to be re-signing LeMahieu, Sherman tweets. Because they’re so locked in on LeMahieu, the Yankees only regarded Lindor as a fallback option.
- Mets general manager Jared Porter told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that they have five to six prospects whom they have no plans to trade. To no one’s surprise, Porter did not reveal any names, though DiComo lists shortstop Ronny Mauricio, righties Matthew Allan and J.T. Ginn, catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty and outfielder Pete Crowe-Armstrong as farmhands who probably aren’t going anywhere. They each rank among the Mets’ top six prospects at MLB.com.
AL Notes: Red Sox, Devers, Springer, Jays, Twins
Some notes from around the American League:
- The Red Sox don’t appear to have any intent to move Rafael Devers off third base in 2021, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The 24-year-old has been a strong hitter but garnered shaky defensive ratings. By measure of defensive runs saved, Devers has been below-average at the hot corner in each of his four MLB seasons. (Statcast’s outs above average was more bullish on his 2019 work but has pegged him as a negative in three of those years). Since the start of 2017, DRS estimates Devers has been 35 runs worse than the average defensive third baseman, a mark that handily dwarfs the rest of his positional peers for worst in the league. There could be some merit to playing prospect Bobby Dalbec at the hot corner and moving Devers across the diamond. Nevertheless, Cotillo notes that the plan seems to be for Devers to remain at third, with Dalbec the favorite for first base reps.
- The Blue Jays are generally viewed as one of two frontrunners in the race to sign George Springer (the Mets being the other). With that in mind, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith examines the outfielder’s free agent market. The general expectation entering the offseason had been that Springer would receive a five-year deal in the $100MM – $125MM range. (The MLBTR staff forecasted five years, $125MM). However, Nicholson-Smith feels Springer’s eventual price point may come in well north of those initial estimates. As he points out, Springer’s productivity with the Astros isn’t dissimilar from that of Anthony Rendon with the Nationals. Nearly two years older than Rendon was at this time last year, Springer won’t match the latter’s seven-year term. But Nicholson-Smith speculates that an average annual value approaching Rendon’s $35MM per year salary could be in play for Springer on a five-year contract.
- Should the Twins pursue a long-term extension with outfield prospect Alex Kirilloff? Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic makes the case for that, examining potential contract terms in a piece that figures to be of interest to Twins’ fans. Extensions for players who’ve yet to make their MLB debut are rare but not unheard of. For instance, the White Sox and Mariners pulled off deals last winter with Luis Robert and Evan White, respectively. Kirilloff played in one of Minneosta’s postseason games last year but still has zero MLB service time, having been added to the roster after the regular season concluded. The 23-year-old ranks as the Twins’ best prospect at Baseball America.
Latest On George Springer’s Asking Price
9:20pm: Springer has offers in hand north of $100MM, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Those bids nevertheless remain well shy of the veteran’s asking price, per the report.
3:47pm: The Mets and Blue Jays have been known to be the strongest suitors for free agent slugger George Springer for weeks, but Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News takes that notion a bit further, reporting that the Mets and Jays are the two “final clubs” bidding on Springer in free agency.
That, however, doesn’t necessarily mean a decision from Springer is nigh. Springer isn’t expected to sign until January, Thosar writes. While that technically could mean as soon as Friday, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that many involved in the bidding expect that Springer’s free agency could drag “well” into next month. Per Martino, the Mets and Springer aren’t yet close to a deal, and Springer’s camp is still seeking more than $150MM in guaranteed money.
In all likelihood, a $150MM+ contract would make Springer the top paid position player of the winter — possibly the top paid free agent overall. Such a contract could take multiple shapes; clubs more concerned about maintaining year-over-year flexibility could opt for a six-year pact in the $25MM-per-year range, or a team less concerned about approaching the luxury threshold could up the annual rate to around $30MM per year on a five-year term. Given the Blue Jays’ affordable young core, they seem less likely to be concerned with the luxury barrier than the Mets, who have several expensive stars already scattered about the roster.
Notably, Martino suggests that the Mets “might be willing to approach” the $150MM mark to secure Springer, although it’s likely telling to some extent that the two sides aren’t yet close to a deal in spite of that willingness. The Mets and the Blue Jays are considered to be two of the market’s most aggressive buyers this winter, and their reported interests carry some overlap beyond Springer; both have been linked to DJ LeMahieu, and both were tied to J.T. Realmuto — although the Mets are obviously out of that market now after signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM contract.
Reports surrounding the two clubs seem to paint the Mets as the aggressor in the Springer market. New York is said to be focused on the longtime Astros center fielder as its top target, while the Jays remain linked to a bevy of top-tier free agents, including Springer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Trevor Bauer. Both the Mets and the Blue Jays have also been rumored as possible landing spots when Francisco Lindor is ultimately traded.
Springer has raked at career-high rates over the past two seasons, posting a combined .284/.376/.576 batting line with 53 home runs, 26 doubles and five triples in 173 games and 778 plate appearances. Both Toronto and New York have somewhat crowded outfield pictures as it is, but either could move some pieces around to accommodate an impact bat of Springer’s caliber. Since Opening Day 2019, Springer has been 53 percent better than a league-average bat, by measure of wRC+. Only six players in that time top his mark of 153: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon.
MLBTR Poll: George Springer’s Future
Longtime Astros outfielder George Springer entered free agency this winter as one of the most coveted players on the open market. Understandably so, as the 31-year-old hit an excellent .270/.361/.491 with 174 home runs in 3,567 plate appearances from 2014-20. Thanks to his tremendous output in Houston’s uniform, MLBTR ranked Springer as the third-best free agent available at the beginning of the offseason, projecting him for a five-year, $125MM contract.
Almost two months into free agency, the Astros, Mets and Blue Jays are the only teams with reported interest in Springer. It’s unclear, though, whether the Astros are willing to dole out another nine-figure contract, despite what Springer has meant to the club. The Mets, led by deep-pocketed rookie owner Steve Cohen, could turn to Springer as their new center fielder, though that might mean trading one of their other outfielders (Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith). Similarly, the Blue Jays have a decent outfield on paper with Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. However, the team doesn’t appear content with Grichuk as its center fielder, so it could bring in Springer and let go of Grichuk or one of its other outfielders in a deal.
While Houston, New York and Toronto look like the front-runners to sign Springer, a “mystery team” could step in and steal the three-time All-Star. Which club do you expect to sign Springer? (Poll link for app users)
Who will sign George Springer?
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Mets 53% (11,607)
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Blue Jays 21% (4,696)
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Other 14% (3,132)
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Astros 11% (2,455)
Total votes: 21,890
Mets Looking Into Tomoyuki Sugano
The Mets are “looking into” right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano as they seek to upgrade their rotation, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sugano was posted for MLB clubs earlier this month, and teams have until Jan. 7 to complete a contract with him before that posting window expires.
New York has been prominently connected to Trevor Bauer as a potential free-agent target, but numerous reports have indicated over the past week-plus that George Springer is the team’s primary focus at the moment. Sherman agrees, calling Springer the “centerpiece” of their offseason plans. As such, an expectation has emerged that the Mets will look to the second tier of starting pitchers in their search to augment their rotation, and the 31-year-old Sugano is arguably the best of the bunch.
[Related: Yomiuri Giants Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Clubs]
One of the premier pitchers in Japan, Sugano is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Nippon Professional Baseball’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. After a “down” 2019 season that saw him log a 3.89 ERA, Sugano rebounded with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball in 2020, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames. Of note, Sherman writes that large-market teams may have the upper hand in pursuing Sugano, as NPB’s Giants are viewed as the “Yankees of Japan,” playing their home games at the famed Tokyo Dome.
It’s not clear just what type of arrangement Sugano will command on the open market, but a multi-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary seems reasonable to anticipate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a two-year, $24MM deal in his updated free-agent rankings and contract predictions. If a team believes Sugano to be closer to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in MLB, it’s certainly possible that he could secure a third year or a hike on that annual salary.
The Mets, of course, have Jacob deGrom atop their rotation and will also rely on Marcus Stroman after the righty accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rookie David Peterson was impressive in a limited 2020 debut, and lefty Steven Matz was also tendered a contract despite a recent downturn in his production. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, will be out until this coming summer due to Tommy John surgery.
Emboldened by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are a clear win-now team under the watch of returning president Sandy Alderson and newly hired GM Jared Porter. With James McCann and Trevor May already signed to multi-year deals, further additions are a given. If the plan is indeed to add a second-tier arm and make Springer the focus, then Sugano would join Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Corey Kluber among the best remaining rotation options on the open market.
To this point in his posting window, Sugano has also been connected to the Red Sox, the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Given his stature in Japan, it’s all but certain that Sugano will receive interest from the majority of pitching-needy clubs who are willing to spend in the wake of this year’s revenue losses. In addition to the money owed to Sugano on a new contract, the team that signs him will owe a release fee to NPB’s Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter (including option years, incentives, etc.).
Blue Jays, Mets Seen As Strongest Suitors For George Springer
It’s been a slow-moving market for all of the game’s top free agents, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan shines some light on where things stand with George Springer, reporting that the Blue Jays and Mets are generally viewed as the two strongest possibilities for the longtime Astros slugger.
Newly hired Mets general manager Jared Porter plainly acknowledged in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM last week that Springer is “going to be part of the process” as they evaluate options on the high end of both the free-agent and trade markets (Twitter link, with audio). As one would expect, Porter didn’t tip his hand as to anything more specific, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi did write recently that the Mets are “focused” on Springer at the moment.
In some ways, it’s not particularly surprising to see. The Mets and Jays are widely seen as the two teams most willing to spend this winter, and both could use an impact center fielder. Other teams who are seen as potentially active clubs have reason not to aggressively pursue Springer.
Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has suggested his team will focus on pitching and look at more “complementary” hitters. The Yankees are focused on DJ LeMahieu, and their outfield is crowded as is. The Red Sox’ most pressing need is in the rotation, given the uncertainty around the health of their veteran starters. The Twins are focused on Nelson Cruz and their pitching staff. The Braves have eschewed this type of long-term deal under GM Alex Anthopoulos and may be more apt to retain Marcell Ozuna if they do make an uncharacteristic outfield splash. The White Sox have already signed Adam Eaton. Houston is an obvious fit, but an extension between the two sides never came together and the price surely hasn’t come down now that Springer has the benefit of open-market bidding for his services.
Free agency is an ever-fluid situation, as various factors can rapidly change a player’s market. A team could trade a current outfielder or lose someone to injury. An owner not expected to spend lavishly could have a change of heart or be swayed by a direct meeting with Springer’s representatives. However, Passan writes that as things stand right now, executives from other clubs view the Springer market as a two-horse race between the Jays and Mets.
The Mets have already been aggressive early, signing James McCann (four years, $40.6MM) and Trevor May (two years, $15.5MM) to early deals that bolster the club while still leaving Porter and president Sandy Alderson ample payroll space. The Mets currently owe just shy of $95MM to a combined 10 players, though they have just as many yet-unsigned arbitration-eligible players to whom they tendered contracts. Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz headline that group, but most of the group is in line for relatively small-scale salaries. It’s be a surprise if, after their arb work was completed, the current iteration of the Mets roster exceeded a $150MM payroll by much.
The financial outlook in Toronto is even cleaner. Toronto owes about $57.5MM to seven players in addition to forthcoming arbitration raises for two players: Ross Stripling and Teoscar Hernandez. They only have $35MM in guaranteed salaries on the 2022 books, with Tanner Roark, Robbie Ray, Shun Yamaguchi and Rafael Dolis set to come off the books. Signing Springer would likely necessitate a move sending Randal Grichuk elsewhere, and while his remaining three years and $28MM is an overpay, it’s not so glaring that the Jays couldn’t reasonably expect to find a creative solution.
Astros Notes: Correa, Springer, Brantley, Smith, Pettis
Here’s the latest out of Houston:
- Shortstop Carlos Correa‘s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors last month, and general manager James Click said Thursday (via Mark Berman of Fox 26) that they are “open to all avenues” that could improve the franchise. However, Click added that Correa’s presence “makes it a lot easier to win,” so it doesn’t seem a deal is imminent if the Astros are aiming to earn a fifth straight playoff berth in 2021. The bigger question might be whether the Astros will retain Correa for the long haul, as he’s due to become one of the game’s most coveted free agents after next season.
- In the here and now, the Astros are facing a couple of big losses in free agency in outfielders George Springer and Michael Brantley, who are currently on the open market. Springer looks as if he’ll earn a nine-figure contract this offseason. Brantley won’t cash in to that extent, but he should do well in his own right. It will be a challenge for the Astros to re-sign either of them, but Click indicated (via Berman) that they’re interested in doing so. “We are engaged on a number of fronts, those guys included,” said Click. “We will continue to put our best foot forward there and see if we can keep the team together.” If the Astros aren’t able to retain those two, though, they will “be ready to bring in some players that can help us out,” according to Click.
- Veteran reliever Joe Smith missed all of last season after opting out over family health concerns, though the right-hander told Jake Kaplan of The Athletic that he wants to play in 2021 (Kaplan’s piece is worth a full read for those who want more information on Smith’s decision). The 36-year-old Smith has been an asset to a handful of teams’ bullpens throughout his career, so if he does come back next season, he should once again help Houston. Smith has one year and $4MM left on his contract.
- Click revealed that the Astros expect third base coach Gary Pettis to return in 2021, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Pettis missed the end of the season after a multiple myeloma diagnosis in September. The former major league outfielder, 62, has been on the Astros’ staff since 2015.
Latest On White Sox’ Outfield Targets
Despite a clear opening in their outfield, the White Sox are “extraordinarily unlikely” to sign George Springer this winter, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The longtime Astros slugger has plenty of interest elsewhere, and Passan suggests that the ChiSox aren’t keen on paying “center-field prices for a corner outfielder.”
That’s perhaps an overly simplistic means of describing the situation, given that there are plenty of highly paid corner outfielders — some whose current contracts top whatever Springer will eventually command in free agency (e.g. Bryce Harper). However, it’s also fair to say that a considerable portion of Springer’s value is tied to the fact that he is not only a vastly above-average hitter but an above-average defender at a premium position. By all indications he’d be a strong defender in right field as well, but it seems his asking price and the Sox’ valuation of a corner outfielder — even an extremely well-rounded one — don’t align.
Right field is still a glaring need for a White Sox club that predictably non-tendered Nomar Mazara after a miserable debut season on the South Side. Fleet-footed Adam Engel gives them an option, although his track record prior to the 2020 season was that of a replacement-level player. At the very least, a left-handed bat to pair with Engel in a platoon setting would be sensible for the Sox to pursue.
To that end, it’s worth adding that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal lists the White Sox as one of the teams with “at least some” interest in free-agent slugger Joc Pederson. Passan suggests that perhaps Michael Brantley could be a fit as well, although Brantley has just 58 career innings in right field. He’s spent the bulk of his career in left field with some frequent work in center field as well during his younger days. (NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien makes a pitch for the Sox to bring Adam Eaton back into the fold, although that’s purely an opinion piece and not an indication that the two sides have actually spoken about a reunion.)
Pederson isn’t a new name to be connected to the White Sox. There’s been little to solidly connect the two sides up to now in the current offseason, but this is now the third consecutive offseason that has seen the White Sox reported to have interest in Pederson. The Sox and Dodgers talked about a potential Pederson swap in both the 2018-19 and 2019-20 offseasons, although they obviously weren’t able to come to an agreement.
For the Sox, Pederson would likely be a pure platoon partner for Engel, as his career .191/.266/.310 slash against lefties is difficult for any club to stomach. He doesn’t hit for a high average against righties, either, but Pederson walks at a near-13 percent clip and boasts top-of-the-scale power when he’s holding the platoon advantage, as evidenced by a .238/.349/.501 batting line (128 wRC+). Brantley would be more of an everyday option, as he generally hits for average and gets on base regardless of opponent, although the bulk of his power comes against righties only. Again, though, it’s not an ideal defensive fit for Brantley, who’d probably require some time at DH as well.
Adding a lefty bat is in many ways a sensible approach for the White Sox, whose lineup is rife with right-handed bats. Outside of switch-hitters Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, the Sox’ starting lineup is entirely right-handed; Jose Abreu, Nick Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert all bat from the right side, as does top prospect Andrew Vaughn, who could factor into the team’s DH mix at some point in 2021.