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George Springer

Mets Notes: Odorizzi, Springer, Bauer, Owens, Shreve

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The Mets were linked to Jake Odorizzi’s market last month, though the team doesn’t appear to be one of the front-runners for the right-hander’s services, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Odorizzi “is believed to be much more engaged with other teams right now.”  We heard yesterday that the Twins were also falling behind in the race to sign Odorizzi, which could potentially mean good news for the Giants and Blue Jays — the other two teams cited as having interest in Odorizzi back in November.

San Francisco and Toronto are two of the teams considered to be most fervently exploring the pitching market thus far, with Sherman also listing the Padres, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels as being particularly keen on adding arms.  It’s probably safe to guess that at least a couple of those teams have also checked in on Odorizzi, who was projected by MLBTR to receive a three-year, $39MM free agent deal.

More from Citi Field…

  • Also from Sherman, he opines that the Mets’ pitching plans could be altered by what happens with Trevor Bauer, as Bauer and George Springer appear to be the team’s top targets.  “It is possible they are planning to make just one substantial purchase,” Sherman writes, so the Mets could turn towards Odorizzi or other pitchers if Springer is signed rather than Bauer.  A trade target like Reds right-hander Sonny Gray could also be explored, with Sherman theorizing that Amed Rosario could interest a Cincinnati team known to be looking for shortstop help.
  • After speculation earlier in the offseason that Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens could be a candidate to join the Mets, the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reports that the Mets have, at least, “held internal discussions” about Owens, though it isn’t known if Owens has actually interviewed for the team’s general manager vacancy.  Owens has a prior relationship with Mets president Sandy Alderson, as Alderson worked as a senior advisor to the Oakland front office for the last two seasons before returning to the Mets.
  • Chasen Shreve was non-tendered by the Mets prior to Wednesday’s deadline, and MLBTR’s arbitration projections had Shreve in line for an arbitration salary of between $800K and $1.1MM.  However, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that minor league deal Shreve signed with the Mets last offseason paid the left-hander a $1.5MM base salary upon reaching the majors, so Shreve’s arbitration number would have been closer to $2MM.  While not a major financial difference for a reliever who pitched pretty well in 2020, DiComo figures the Mets believe they can find either a less-expensive pitcher who can match or better Shreve’s 2020 performance, or they’re saving money for a bigger-ticket addition.  Shreve was also out of options, which undoubtedly also factored into New York’s non-tender decision.

Mets Rumors: Springer, McCann

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Free-agent outfielder George Springer could be the No. 1 offseason target for the Mets, according to SNY’s Andy Martino, who writes that the longtime Astro “remains heavily in the mix.” Meanwhile, Martino hears that the Mets are more aggressively going after catcher James McCann than fellow backstop J.T. Realmuto.

Springer would join an already loaded Mets outfield that includes Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith as potential options for 2021. Nimmo was the only member of that group to line up in center field last season, though he struggled to minus-five Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.1 Ultimate Zone Rating over 308 1/3 innings there. Conversely, Springer posted six DRS with a minus-0.4 UZR across 338 innings, and he has typically performed well at the position since he first debuted there in 2014.

Of course, anyone who signs Springer wouldn’t be doing so primarily because of his defense. Rather, that team would be adding him on account of the immense impact Springer has made with his bat. This past season was the latest tremendous offensive effort for the 31-year-old Springer, who slashed .265/.359/.540 (146 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 222 plate appearances.

The Mets seem to have a bigger need behind the plate than in their outfield, as Wilson Ramos and Robinson Chirinos are free agents. The most established catcher on their roster is Tomas Nido, who owns a woeful line of .197/.234/.319 (46 wRC+) in 270 MLB plate appearances. That suggests the team will upgrade from outside the organization in the coming months. McCann, who’s coming off an impressive season, should cost far less than Realmuto, but he won’t be easy to acquire for the Mets and deep-pocketed owner Steve Cohen. At least six teams have shown interest in McCann early this offseason, so there will be plenty of competition to sign him.

Latest On Blue Jays, George Springer

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George Springer is one of the most prominent of the many free agents the Blue Jays are reportedly exploring this offseason, though the Jays’ initial interest in Springer seems to be developing.  According to Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have “progressed beyond just talking” with Springer, which would seem to indicate that Toronto has issued at least one offer to the former World Series MVP.

Such a step doesn’t necessarily indicate that a deal could be close, or even that Springer is the Blue Jays’ top free agent target.  However, the Jays already made one early signing in bringing Robbie Ray back to the club on a one-year contract, and the wide net Toronto is seemingly casting over so many free agents could indicate that the Blue Jays are looking to strike while many other teams are still figuring out their payrolls or (along those same lines) planning to wait to make moves later in the offseason in order to find bargains.  Davidi opines that the Jays first seem to be looking at position players in order to “nail down their lineup adds, figure out what’s staying, and then trade to get pitching help.”

From Springer’s perspective, there are pros and cons to signing early (with the Jays or any other team).  Signing a deal now would allow him to avoid any prolonged uncertainty on the open market and allow him to entirely focus on the 2021 season with his new team.  If the Blue Jays are one of relatively few teams who reportedly have money to spend this winter, signing would ensure that Springer can get top dollar rather than see Toronto spend its payroll on other players and then leaving Springer short a major suitor.

On the other hand, while the expected free agent crunch should impact players in the middle and lower tiers of the market, Springer and the other top-tier free agent names can safely assume they’ll still find an appropriately big payday.  MLBTR ranked Springer third on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected a hefty five-year, $125MM deal for the outfielder, even as he enters his age-31 season.  As such, Springer faces no real rush to sign immediately since he knows a big contract awaits somewhere.

Springer might also want to wait for his market to fully reveal itself, once more teams do get their budgets finalized and more offers emerge.  For instance, the Mets don’t seem to be fully diving into offseason moves until they figure out their front office situation, and loom as a potential bidder for just about anyone.  “While the Blue Jays may be willing to set the market, agents will probably want to wait for the Mets to drop the gauntlet,” Davidi writes.

Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers

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The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).

Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.

Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.

Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).

The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.

Blue Jays Interested In George Springer, Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Fresh off their first playoff season since 2016, the up-and-coming Blue Jays may be in position for an aggressive winter. With that in mind, they’re already showing interest in a couple of the game’s premier free-agent outfielders. The Astros’ George Springer and longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are on the Blue Jays’ radar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (h/t: Tim Kelly of WEEI.com).

[RELATED: Blue Jays Offseason Outlook]

Either Springer or Bradley could take over in center for Toronto, which relied on Randal Grichuk in 2020. Grichuk had a nice offensive season, hitting .273/.312/.481 (112 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 231 plate appearances. However, Grichuk had difficulty in the outfield, where he managed minus-eight Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-three Ultimate Zone Rating. With Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the corners, Toronto could either try to trade Grichuk, who’s due $29MM through 2023, or move him around the outfield/DH if it signs either Springer or Bradley.

Of Springer and Bradley, the former will command the far richer contract. MLBTR predicts a five-year, $125MM contract for Springer, who has blended high-end offense with very good defense throughout his career. There’s a case that the 31-year-old Springer is the No. 1 position player on the open market (it’s him or catcher J.T. Realmuto). With the Astros having given Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he’s sure to reject, the Blue Jays would have to surrender draft compensation to add him.

Bradley isn’t on Springer’s level, but JBJ has been a valuable player during his career, in which he has combined fantastic defense with passable offense. This past season, although abbreviated, was one of the 30-year-old’s best at the plate. He wound up with a strong line of .283/.364/.450 (119 wRC+), seven homers and five steals across 217 PA. MLBTR expects Bradley to land a two-year, $16MM contract before the 2021 campaign, but the Jays or another team will have to beat out the likes of the Red Sox and Astros, who have shown interest early this offseason.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Bigger Contract: George Springer Or J.T. Realmuto?

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Barring extensions over the next couple of weeks, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Astros outfielder George Springer will enter free agency as the two best position players on the open market. Realmuto is by far the premier catcher slated to reach free agency, where other options such as James McCann (White Sox) and Yadier Molina (Cardinals) will pale in comparison. Likewise, Springer’s easily the top center field-capable player who could soon become available. The question now is whether Realmuto or Springer will make more on his next contract.

Realmuto, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who has been the majors’ most valuable catcher since 2017, has an opportunity to set a record in terms of annual earnings at his position. Former Twin Joe Mauer holds the record at eight years and $184MM on the extension he signed in 2010. Realmuto doesn’t seem to stand much chance of eclipsing Mauer’s total guarantee, but the $23MM per annum the ex-Minnesota standout raked in appears to be a realistic target.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Springer earn a similar amount on a yearly basis. Although he is older than Realmuto (31), Springer has been a star-level performer since his career began in 2014. And dating back to last season, Springer has slashed .284/.376/.576 with 53 home runs. He ranks seventh among qualified hitters in wRC+ (153) and ninth in fWAR (8.4) since 2019.

Unlike Realmuto, Springer probably isn’t going to set any kind of record for earning power at his position. However, that doesn’t mean Springer won’t out-earn Realmuto on a five- or six-year deal (which MLBTR expects the two to receive). Both players will be saddled with qualifying offers, but that shouldn’t dim teams’ enthusiasm if and when they hit the market. Which player do you think will wind up with a higher guarantee on his next pact?

(Poll link for app users)

 

AL Notes: Astros, Kiermaier, Orioles, Bannon, Rangers

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Some notes from the American League:

  • George Springer and Michael Brantley will be two of the top free agents on the market this offseason. Astros general manager James Click confirmed the organization will look into bringing both players back, but he also cautioned that the club has to “balance the present and the future” (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Click pointed to the broad financial uncertainty throughout the sport thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, while expressing a more general desire to avoid “a series of short-sighted moves that (would) put us in a bad position for the long term.” If Springer and/or Brantley were to depart, the outfield would have to be addressed in some way, with Kyle Tucker the only in-house replacement locked into an everyday role. Houston will certainly make a qualifying offer to Springer, at least guaranteeing themselves draft compensation if the sides don’t agree on a deal. The QO decision on Brantley will be a tougher call.
  • There’s more certainty on the Astros’ coaching staff than there is in the outfield. Manager Dusty Baker confirmed to reporters (including Jake Kaplan of the Athletic) the entire staff is invited back for 2021. Baker himself is under contract next season by virtue of Houston’s exercising his club option in July. Bench coach Joe Espada, hitting coaches Álex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, and pitching coach Brent Strom headline Baker’s assistant group.
  • Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier suffered a wrist injury when he was hit by a pitch in Game 3 of the ALCS. He’ll be a full-go for the World Series, he told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). That’s not particularly surprising, since the 30-year-old returned to Tampa Bay’s starting lineup for Game 7 against Houston. The three-time Gold Glove winner has been an integral part of the Rays’ superlative team defense this postseason.
  • The Orioles will have to decide whether to add infielder Rylan Bannon to their 40-man roster in advance of this winter’s Rule 5 draft. In an effort to improve his chances of cracking the roster, Bannon is expanding his defensive repertoire, as Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball details. “I’m (at instructional league) to work on second base stuff, and kind of surprising, (Friday) was my second day of working on a little bit of catching stuff,” Bannon said. The 24-year-old started 37 minor-league games at the keystone in 2019, compared with 84 starts at third. He has never lined up behind the plate. Part of the five-player return from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, Bannon combined for a .266/.345/.421 line between Double-A and Triple-A last season.
  • The Rangers hope to fill their pitching coach vacancy by the conclusion of the World Series, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. That individual is expected to come from within the organization, Sullivan adds. Texas parted ways with former pitching coach Julio Rangel earlier this month.

George Springer Suffers Sprained Right Wrist

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AUG. 7: Springer has a sprained wrist, manager Dusty Baker said Friday (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

AUG. 6: Astros outfielder George Springer departed the team’s loss to the Diamondbacks on Thursday with a right wrist strain, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic was among those to report. Fortunately, X-rays came back negative, so he shouldn’t sit out for a significant amount of time, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Although Springer seems OK, even a few days off could be damaging to a Houston team that’s off to a 6-6 start. The reiging AL champions have already had to go without ace Justin Verlander and slugger Yordan Alvarez for most or all of the season because of health problems, and their bullpen has taken a beating from injuries. Those troubles have helped lead to an early 2 1/2-game deficit in the AL West, a division the Astros have won three years in a row. They’re now staring up at the Athletics.

Of course, a great deal of Houston’s recent success has been on account of Springer, who has slashed .269/.360/.488 with 163 home runs in 3,398 plate appearances since he debuted in 2014. He’s one of the premier pending free agents in baseball, and with such a short season, any missed time could hurt the 30-year-old’s earning power heading into the offseason.

The Astros replaced Springer with Myles Straw in center field on Thursday. Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Josh Reddick represent the rest of the healthy outfielders on their roster.

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