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Padres Targeting Outfield Help Before Deadline

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The Padres have long been expected to look for ways to bolster the offense this deadline season. The outfield looks like a particular area of concern, and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes that the club is indeed scouring the market for help on the grass.

San Diego has had a middle-of-the-pack offense overall, entering play Friday with a .241/.317/.374 team slash line. That includes a monster .307/.381/.525 showing from star third baseman Manny Machado, though, and the Friars’ production has been a bit top-heavy. Five players (Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, C.J. Abrams, José Azocar and Wil Myers) have taken 100+ plate appearances and been at least 15 percentage points worse than league average with the bat, by measure of wRC+. That leads to some areas rife for possible upgrades, particularly in an outfield that has been a bottom-ten unit with a .220/.303/.346 showing.

Few outfielders are more obvious trade candidates than Royals left fielder Andrew Benintendi. An impending free agent on a last place club, the 28-year-old looks like a virtual lock to change uniforms over the next few weeks. He’ll be a priority target for multiple outfield-needy teams, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Padres are among the clubs with interest.

Benintendi is hitting .317/.386/.401 through 363 plate appearances. He’s only connected on a trio of longballs, but he owns a strong 10.2% walk rate and has punched out in a career-low 14% of his trips. While he’s not making much impact from a power perspective, he brings a disciplined plate approach and makes plenty of contact. Benintendi has also rated well in left field in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved since landing in Kansas City, and he collected a Gold Glove and finished second in Fielding Bible Award voting at the position last season.

The Friars welcomed back left fielder Jurickson Profar from the concussion injured list this evening, just a week after he suffered the scary injury in a collision with Abrams. Profar will pair with Nomar Mazara in the corner outfield, with Grisham likely to continue as the regular center fielder. Each of Profar and Mazara is having a nice season, but they own more inconsistent career track records. Grisham has had a rough year, carrying a .192/.295/.334 line into play tonight.

Cassavell suggests a center field-capable player might be a target given Grisham’s struggles, although the market for center fielders is quite thin. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano is the top center fielder with a decent chance to be dealt, but he’d require a very strong return with three seasons of club control remaining. Benintendi’s teammate Michael A. Taylor would be a more affordable fallback, although he’s had a generally up-and-down track record at the plate for his career. Benintendi has a bit of experience in center field himself, but he hasn’t logged an inning there since 2019.

Payroll limitations loom over the Padres’ deadline outlook. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, San Diego’s luxury tax ledger is just underneath the $230MM base threshold. The organization hasn’t shown much appetite for surpassing that mark for a second consecutive season, raising questions about what kind of acquisitions president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff may be able to make. Benintendi, for instance, is playing on an $8.5MM salary. Around $3.4MM of that tab will still be owed come the August 2 trade deadline, and assuming that money would push San Diego into luxury tax territory if all else remained equal. Of course, the Padres could try to offload money of their own and/or only deal with teams willing to pay down the salary of traded players if they’re intent on avoiding the CBT.

No player the Padres add from outside the organization will be a more impactful addition than Fernando Tatís Jr. The star shortstop has yet to play this season after being diagnosed with a wrist fracture in Spring Training. He’s set for a step forward, though, as Preller told Ben & Woods on 93.7 The Fan that Tatís was set to begin his hitting progression today (Twitter link). He’ll continue to be reevaluated on a week-to-week basis, but it’s a notable development as he’d long awaited clearance to begin swinging a bat.

Tatís will certainly still need a fair bit of time to build back into game shape, and he’ll then have to embark on a minor league rehab assignment to get his timing down. In the interim, the Friars will continue to split shortstop time between Ha-Seong Kim and Abrams. The former has been the primary shortstop for most of the year. He’s played excellent defense throughout the season, and he’s caught fire of late at the dish. After hitting only .232/.327/.295 in June, Kim owns a .344/.421/.531 mark through the first couple weeks of July.

Jurickson Profar Diagnosed With Concussion, Neck Strain

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Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar has been diagnosed with a concussion and cervical neck strain, the club announced. He suffered the nasty injury in the fifth inning of last night’s win over the Giants. Tommy La Stella lofted a fly ball into shallow left-center field. Profar, playing left field, came in on the ball while shortstop C.J. Abrams tracked it over his shoulder.

The two players collided, and Abrams’ knee struck Profar underneath the chin. Trainers stabilized Profar’s neck and took him off the field on a cart. He was transferred to a local hospital for further evaluation. According to the team, he was released last night and has been recovering at home.

It’s a scary situation, one in which San Diego will no doubt prioritize Profar’s long-term health. The club hasn’t announced any sort of timetable for his return, though he seems likely to be placed on the seven-day concussion injured list shortly.

Profar has gotten the start in left field for 78 of the Friars’ 84 games. He’s playing at arguably a career-best level, carrying a .242/.343/.397 line with eight home runs across 361 plate appearances.

The Strange Case Of Jurickson Profar

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To say that Jurickson Profar’s career has been inconsistent would be an understatement. After being signed by the Rangers as an international free agent out of Curacao, he was incredibly impressive in the minors, shooting up to the big leagues, making his MLB debut at the age of 19 towards the end of the 2012 season, hitting a home run in his first major league at-bat and topping prospect lists going into 2013.

In 2013, Profar had a mediocre showing in 85 games, hitting just .234/.308/.336, 75 wRC+. That might have been disappointing based on his prospect hype, but it was certainly understandable given that he was still just 20 years old. Unfortunately, shoulder injuries led to multiple surgeries which wiped out both his 2014 and 2015 seasons. In 2016 and 2017, he was finally healthy but struggled in sporadic MLB playing time. Despite success in the minors, he hit just .227/.316/.315 in 112 games over those two campaigns, producing a wRC+ of 67.

In 2018, he finally got a good stretch of playing time in the big leagues, getting into 146 games after never previously getting above 90. That regularity seemed to do him good, as he hit .254/.335/.458 for a wRC+ of 107, or 7% better than league average. He also stole ten bases and added defensive versatility, lining up at each infield position along with a brief cameo in left field. On the whole, he was worth 1.9 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs.

After being traded to Oakland, his pendulum swung the other way, as he made 11 throwing errors from second base and slumped at the plate to a line of .218/.301/.410, 90 wRC+. The A’s traded him away after that lone season, with the Padres on the receiving end. A.J. Preller, who was with the Rangers when Profar was first signed, had by then become the general manager in San Diego.

Despite Profar’s mercurial career, Preller evidently still believed in the former top prospect, which worked out in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Profar played 56 games in the 60-game season and got his batting line above average again, hitting .278/.343/.438. That amounted to a wRC+ of 112, to which he added seven steals and solid defense in left field (although not as solid elsewhere), accumulating 1.2 fWAR in that short span.

Although that was a small sample, it seemed to reaffirm Preller’s feeling about Profar, as the club re-signed him in free agency that winter. Much like Profar’s career, the deal was a bit unusual, as it was a three-year, $21MM contract that afforded Profar an opt-out after each season. That was quite a nice coup for him, as it gave him the upside of being able to return to free agency if he were to continue on a positive path, but give him some security in the event that he had another setback.

At this point, you can probably guess that his Jekyll-and-Hyde act was not over. In 2021, the first year of that deal, he had yet another down year, hitting .227/.329/.320 for a wRC+ of just 85. At the end of the campaign, he had the ability to opt out of the two years and $14MM remaining on his deal but unsurprisingly decided to stay after that tepid season.

Here in 2022, the Padres have played 47 games, just over 29% of the season. How is Profar doing now? Following the script perfectly, he is good again, hitting .222/.332/.401, with six homers and four steals. His wRC+ is at 114 and he began today’s action with 1.2 fWAR.

There’s still a lot of season left to change the picture here, and it’s obvious that Profar is not immune from quick narrative reversals, but it’s starting to seem as though he could be lining himself up to opt out of the final year of his contract. He will be deciding between a $7.5MM player option for 2023 or a $1MM buyout. (There’s also a $10MM mutual option for 2024 with another $1MM buyout.) If he were to take the buyout, he would only need to find $6.5MM in free agency to break even.

For a player as unpredictable as Profar, there would certainly be reasons for teams to stay away from him. But there are also reasons to dive in. Despite all those twists and turns in his career, he’s still only 29 years old and won’t turn 30 until February. Even in those down years, he’s always shown good plate discipline. From 2018 to the present, he has a 10.1% walk rate and 14.8% strikeout rate. For context, the league wide averages this year are currently at 8.5% and 22.4%, meaning he’s better than average in both cases. This year, he’s gotten his rates even at 14.1%, prior to today’s game.

Despite some shaky defense in the past when he was bouncing all over the diamond, he seems to have settled into a nice home in left field, having played nowhere else this season. 2020 was his first significant time in left, logging 282 1/3 innings, followed by 257 1/3 last year and 367 this year, going into today’s game. Over those three seasons, his Defensive Runs Saved went from 3 in 2020, to 1 last and 7 this year. His Ultimate Zone Rating went from 2.0 to -0.9 to 2.4. Outs Above Average goes from 0 to -2 to 0.

Although it’s difficult to tell who the real Profar is, it seems plausible that he could get more than $6.5MM in free agency, given his relative youth and inherent athleticism. Even in a down year, he can still take walks, steal a few bases, hit a few homers and can likely provide average corner outfield defense. One would imagine his agent Scott Boras will likely be making that argument, based on his reputation. It may not be a bad argument either. Then again, if anyone can completely change the calculus in a hurry, it’s Profar.

Padres Announce Several Option Decisions

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The Padres have announced that they exercised their club options over right-handed relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen for the 2022 season. Johnson will be retained for $3MM while Stammen will return on a $4MM salary.

While the two relievers offer differing skillsets, it was an easy call to hold onto both players for similar salaries. In 2021 Johnson posted a solid 3.22 ERA and again mystified the opposition with a 31.6% strikeout percentage that ranks as firmly above average. While the right-hander gives up too many free passes (11.1 BB%) and doesn’t induce many groundballs (33.3 GB%) he has proven adept at avoiding home runs when opponents are actually able to put the ball in play against him.

Stammen, meanwhile, rebounded nicely from an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season where he sported a 5.63 ERA after 24 innings. It’s worth noting that his performance there was impacted by some bad BABIP luck, as the durable reliever’s underlying peripherals largely resemble this year’s successful campaign. Regardless, this recent season saw the BABIP pendulum swing the other way while Stammen’s strikeout rate ticked upward and his 55.1% groundball rate remained typically robust. The 38-year-old will look to replicate this year’s 3.06 ERA next season in what will be his sixth season of a very strong Padres tenure.

They’ve also declined their options over right-handed reliever Keone Kela and outfielder Jake Marisnick. San Diego could have paid Kela $800K and Marisnick $4MM to stay aboard next season, but clearly felt between their respective injury and underperformance neither was worth the entirety of that investment. Marisnick will receive a $500k buyout before heading to free agency.

The Kela decision registers as the greater surprise here, as a strikeout-happy reliever with a career 3.33 ERA on its face seems like a bargain with a sub-$1MM price tag. Still, the 28-year-old is recovering from Tommy John surgery and wasn’t thought to be available until midway through next season. After tallying just 42 1/3 innings over the past three seasons, and some declining bottom-line results, the Padres clearly didn’t feel the fiery right-hander was worth the half-season gamble.

Marisnick, meanwhile, was a no-brainer to have his option declined after an ill-fated midseason deal with the Cubs landed him on the west coast. As a glove-first, center field-capable player Marisnick provided adequate production at the plate in Chicago, delivering a .731 OPS. That number cratered following the trade however, as a subsequent .472 OPS contributed to the Padres year-end skid and negated a good deal of the value Marisnick had built for himself earlier in the year.

Additionally, the team confirmed that utility-man Jurickson Profar has exercised his $7.3MM player option for the upcoming season while right-handed closer Mark Melancon has declined his $5MM player option in favor of a $1MM buyout and trip to free agency. The result of both player options are largely formalities at this point, considering the platform years both players posted.

By measure of bWAR Profar was the definition of a replacement-level player in 2021. The one-time top prospect bounced around five positions and upped his walk-rate to a cool 11.9% across 137 games. Unfortunately, that versatility was undercut by generally poor reviews of Profar’s glovework across 4 of his 5 positions. Furthermore, an inability to hit the ball with much authority meant those 137 games worth of plate appearances led to a punchless .227/.329/.320 slash line. Profar will look to tap into some of the upside that he’s shown flashes of throughout his career before making a call on next year’s $8.3MM player option.

Lastly, the 36-year-old Melancon proved to be one of last offseason’s thriftiest pickups. In return for a $3MM guarantee the veteran gave the Padres outstanding production at the back of their bullpen, leading the league with 39 saves in his fifth All-Star campaign. Some batted ball luck worked in Melancon’s favor this season, suggesting his 2.23 ERA is due for some regression, but a very strong groundball and home run rate— plus a spike in strikeout rate from last season— indicate that Melancon remains a plenty serviceable option as a high leverage reliever.

Jurickson Profar Exercises Player Option, Will Remain With Padres

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Padres utilityman Jurickson Profar won’t opt out of his contract with the team, instead choosing to exercise his $6.5MM player option for the 2022 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).

Profar’s free agent deal with the Padres last winter contains three guaranteed years, though Profar had opt-out clauses after both this season and the 2022 season.  Opting out would have allowed Profar to pocket a $1MM buyout and then test the open market, though he will now receive a $6.5MM salary from the Padres in 2022, plus $1.5MM in remaining signing bonus money.  Profar is set to earn $7.5MM in 2023 if he doesn’t opt out of that year, with another $1MM buyout attached.  The two sides also have a $10MM mutual option on Profar’s services for the 2024 season ($1MM buyout).

There wasn’t much suspense behind Profar’s decision, as leaving $15.5MM on the table wouldn’t have been advisable considering Profar’s lackluster 2021 numbers.  Profar hit .227/.329/.320 with four home runs over 412 plate appearances, and was a sub-replacement level player in the eyes of Fangraphs’ WAR metric (-0.7).  While Profar had strong walk and strikeout rates, he simply didn’t make much hard contact, finishing in only the seventh percentile in hard-hit ball rate and barrel rate.  Profar was further hampered by a pair of stints on the COVID-related injury list, which cost him around three weeks of action.

It seemed as if Profar was turning on the corner after a solid 2020 season, yet his struggles this year only added to his history of inconsistency at the big league level.  Once considered the game’s top prospect during his time in the Rangers farm system, Profar hasn’t been able to put everything together, and his progress hasn’t been helped by a number of injuries along the way.  After playing in parts of eight MLB seasons, Profar has only 4.6 fWAR and a .236/.320/.384 slash line to show for 2444 plate appearances.

This track record notwithstanding, Profar’s good 2020 season and his top-prospect reputation garnered him quite a bit of interest on the open market last year, and the Padres were willing to go to three years to retain him.  That investment doesn’t look great one season into the deal, as while Profar was intended for something of a super-utility role in the first place, he doesn’t have a clear path to regular at-bats on next year’s Padres roster.  There is still hope for a late breakout at age-29, and while Profar’s salary isn’t exorbitant by itself, San Diego is already pushing the luxury tax threshold even before making any offseason roster adds.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers Test Positive For Covid-19

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May 12: Wil Myers, who actually started last night’s game, exited after three innings when the team learned of a positive Covid-19 test, manager Jayce Tingler revealed after the game (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Eric Hosmer, meanwhile, departed for contact-tracing purposes and has been placed on the injured list as a result. The league’s health-and-safety protocols stipulate that a player who tests positive will be away from the team for at least 10 days.

The Padres selected outfielder Patrick Kivlehan to take Myers’ roster spot. Kivlehan, whom the Padres signed to a minor league deal over the winter, has hit .208/.302/.401 with 10 home runs in 242 PA in the bigs.

May 11, 4:34pm: Tatis tested positive for COVID-19 and is asymptomatic, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets. Profar and Mateo are in contact tracing. To fill their open roster spots, the Padres selected the contract of outfielder John Andreoli and recalled a pair of players – infielder/outfielder Tucupita Marcano and righty Nabil Crismatt – per a club announcement.

3:34pm: The Padres announced that they have placed shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and utilitymen Jurickson Profar and Jorge Mateo on the injured list because of Major League Baseball’s health and safety protocols. They’ll decide on corresponding moves before their game against the Rockies on Tuesday.

As is typically the case in COVID-related situations, there isn’t any word on how much time any of these players will miss. Regardless, it’s a blow to the Padres’ offensive depth. Tatis has gotten off to an effective start, albeit with much less on-base ability than he flashed in his first two seasons, having batted .240/.315/.552 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in 108 plate appearances. Profar owns a far less imposing .234/.333/.308 line with a home run and five steals over 128 PA, though he has shown off defensive versatility by lining up at first base, second base and both corner outfield spots. And Mateo has hit a useful .250/.325/.417 through his first 40 trips to the plate this year.

This is the second time this year the Padres will have to go some time without Tatis, who was on the 10-day IL for part of April on account of a shoulder injury. They used Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim at short in Tatis’ absence then. Profar, meanwhile, has been the Padres’ primary starter in left field, but Tommy Pham hasn’t been far behind. He figures to get the lion’s share of action there with Profar out.

Padres Re-Sign Jurickson Profar

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JAN. 27: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has the full breakdown of the deal, which is now official: Profar will earn a $3.5MM salary and a $2.5MM signing bonus next season; 2022 includes a $6.5MM player option or a $1MM buyout; 2023 features a $7.5MM player option or a $1MM buyout; and Profar has a $10MM mutual option or a $1MM buyout for 2024. He’ll earn another $350K every time he’s traded.

JAN. 22: 10:32am: Profar’s contract contains an opt-out clause after each of the first two seasons, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

10:02am: The Padres have agreed to re-sign infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $21MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Jurickson Profar | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

A new deal with Profar marks the latest strike in an ultra-aggressive winter for the Padres, who have already acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the trade market in addition to signing Korea Baseball Organization superstar Ha-Seong Kim on a four-year deal. Kim’s ability to bounce around the infield and support the trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth at any position likely means that Profar is again ticketed for more work on the outfield grass than in the infield, although his versatility will allow him to be deployed virtually anywhere skipper Jayce Tingler sees fit.

The three-year term on the Profar deal registers as a bit of a surprise, though the Padres had some competition for the soon-to-be 28-year-old. The Royals were known to have interest in Profar, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox “tried hard” to sign Profar before he ultimately returned to San Diego.

The 2020 season was Profar’s first with the Padres, who acquired him last winter in a deal with the A’s. Profar got out to a disastrous start to the season but rode a sizzling hot streak over the final three-plus weeks of the season to finish out the year with a .278/.343/.428 batting line.

Profar’s season is representative of the difficulty in evaluating players on the heels of such a short year; the end results look solid, but it also should be noted that as late into the season as Aug. 27, Profar was batting .181/.291/.319. That was surely a cause of some concern for some clubs, as was the fact that Profar ranked in the 23rd percentile or worse in terms of exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Statcast.

That said, Profar was clearly still a fairly in-demand free agent. That’s plenty understandable given that back in 2013, he was regarded as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. Profar rocketed through the Rangers’ system after being signed as an amateur out of Curacao, making his MLB debut at just 19 years old in the final weeks of the 2012 season. Unfortunately for both him and for the Rangers, a pair of shoulder injuries led to multiple surgeries, wiping out two full years of development.

Profar never established himself as a regular in Texas, struggling to find playing time behind a veteran infield that included the likes of Adrian Beltre and an in-his-prime Elvis Andrus. Profar had an above-average year at the plate in 2018 as a utility player but still found himself traded to Oakland that winter — a match that didn’t pan out whatsoever. The A’s picked up Profar in hopes that he could solidify second base for his remaining two years of team control, but he battled a borderline case of the yips that resulted in a slew of throwing errors and batted just .218/.310/.401 in 139 games. Oakland traded him to San Diego after that lone year.

Three-year deal notwithstanding, Profar is in many regards still something of a project. The 2020 and 2018 seasons are the only two years he’s ever been at least average at the plate, and as this past season showed, he’s yet to find much consistency at the dish. That said, it was Padres general manager A.J. Preller who was running the Rangers’ international scouting operations when Profar originally signed as a 16-year-old. Based on not only the surprising size of the contract but also the multiple opt-out provisions, Preller seemingly remains a firm believer that Profar can match or exceed last year’s composite output.

That said, the inclusion of the two opt-out clauses effectively saps any upside for the Padres in this contract. If Profar reverts to his ways as a light-hitting utility piece without a position where he’s a true plus defender, the Friars will be on the hook for the full $21MM. If he, at any point, performs at an above-average level, he’ll surely head back to the open market in search of a larger deal — especially given his relative youth. The best outcome for the Padres would be for Profar to rake in 2021 and head back to market, and this contract structure is essentially a $21MM bet that that’ll be the case.

The Padres were already projected to open the season with a roughly $167MM payroll prior to their new deal with Profar. That would’ve been a franchise-record in its own right, but Friars ownership will continue to buck the common trend of shedding payroll taken by most clubs this winter, instead spending at new levels in their effort to dethrone the Dodgers, who have won eight consecutive division titles and, of course, toppled the Rays in the 2020 World Series. The $7MM annual value on Profar’s deal also pushed the Padres to more than $177MM in luxury-tax obligations.

Free Agency Notes: Mets, Richards, Red Sox, Profar, Bench Bat

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The Mets made a play for Garrett Richards before the veteran righty signed with the Red Sox, notes MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Mets have made their rotation a project this offseason. They are seemingly in a good place even without Richards, however. Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman make for a very strong top three, and hopes remain high that David Peterson will maintain a spot behind them. Noah Syndergaard plans to join that group at some point, and even if Seth Lugo returns to the bullpen, the Mets have no shortage of depth options – foremost of which might be the recently-acquired Joey Lucchesi. Beyond the ex-Padre, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff surely have eyes for the rotation. In other news…

  • The Red Sox themselves were runners-up in an attempt to sign Jurickson Profar, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. Boston, of course, ended up with Kiké Hernández on a similar, but shorter contract. It’s not clear if the Red Sox preferred Profar to Hernandez, though Hernández signing merely hours after Profar re-upped with San Diego is notable. Still, one does not necessarily follow the other. All we can say for certain is that Profar’s returning to San Diego thinned Boston’s market for versatile utility types. That the Red Sox engaged in parallel negotiations with similar players doesn’t actually speak to their priorities where those players are concerned.
  • After all, they may very well have been interested in signing both players, as Boston remains on the hunt for a lefty bench bat. In a perfect world, the Red Sox would find someone who could complement Bobby Dalbec at first, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Cotillo floats Marwin Gonzalez, Brad Miller, and Mitch Moreland as some players that might fit the bill. Boston’s bench leans heavily to the right at present, with Jonathan Arauz as one of very few organizational options as a lefty bat off the bench unless Jarren Duran makes the team out of spring training.

Trade/FA Notes: Santander, Profar, Bart, Yates, T. Williams

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Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has drawn trade interest this winter, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. However, as Kubatko suggests, that doesn’t necessarily mean Santander will go anywhere. The 26-year-old is coming off a highly productive season in which he batted .261/.315/.575 (130 wRC+) with 11 home runs, and he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until after 2024. Santander will earn a projected $1.7MM to $3MM in arbitration next season. All of that makes Santander an appealing trade candidate, but the Orioles could simply retain him as a building block.

  • The Padres are still attempting to re-sign free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The switch-hitting Profar, 27, spent last season with San Diego, where he batted .278/.343/.428 (111 wRC+) with seven home runs in 202 trips to the plate. Defensively, Profar divided most of his time between left field and second base. Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth are among the options for the Padres at those spots, but the team seems to believe it will be able to keep fitting Profar in if it re-signs him. MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason that Profar would land a one-year, $7MM contract in free agency.
  • Clubs “routinely ask about” Giants catcher Joey Bart in trade talks, Rosenthal writes. The Giants are not actively attempting to move the 24-year-old, though, according to Rosenthal. Bart, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, got off to a rough start in the majors last year with a .233/.288/.320 line, no home runs and 41 strikeouts against three walks in 111 plate appearances. However, Bart was dominant at the Double-A level the previous season. He or Patrick Bailey, the Giants’ first-round pick last summer, could end up as their answer at catcher when the iconic Buster Posey departs (potentially after next season).
  • The Twins were among the finalists for reliever Kirby Yates before he agreed to join the Blue Jays on Tuesday, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News relays. It’s not surprising the Twins were in on one of the open market’s highest-profile relievers, as their bullpen has taken hits this offseason with Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard getting to free agency. May signed with the Mets, though Romo and Clippard remain without contracts.
  • Former Mets general manager Jared Porter was part of negotiations for right-hander Trevor Williams before the team fired the executive Tuesday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear if the Porter-less Mets will continue pursuing Williams, whom the Pirates designated for assignment in November, especially after acquiring fellow starter Joey Lucchesi from the Padres on Monday. Williams was a solid part of the Pirates’ rotation from 2017-18, but he struggled to a 5.60 ERA/5.01 SIERA in 201 innings and 37 appearances (all starts) between 2019-20.
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