It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the eight players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. More details about their play styles and background are in the first article.
Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)
1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes
In the May update, I wrote that Yamamoto had yet to have his signature outing of the 2023 season, and since then he’s posted three consecutive gems. Yamamoto tossed eight innings in all three starts, allowing just one run and holding hitters to .092, while fanning 29.8% of them.
The 24-year-old right-hander now has a 1.59 ERA on the season, striking out 28.3% of hitters while walking just 4.6% and holding hitters to .188 in 62 ⅓ innings.
Yamamoto faces stiff competition from Sasaki for most strikeouts, but a third consecutive Pacific League Triple Crown (ERA, Wins, Ks) is definitely within reach.
2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars
The 29-year-old left-hander is back to looking like the Yokohama Baystars ace after a rough May. In his last four starts, Imanaga has a 2.32 ERA, striking out 23.3% of hitters and walking 4.3%.
On the season, Imanaga has a 2.78 ERA, 26.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, and keeping hitters to a .225 batting average in 55 innings. The lefty struggles with the long ball at times (giving up eight in May), but regularly pitches deep into games, only failing to throw seven innings twice.
Imanaga positioned himself for an MLB move in 2023 by signing with a new agency last December. Given his strong track record in both NPB and international competitions, multiple teams should be showing interest in Imanaga this offseason.
3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions
After a blistering start to the season, Takahashi has hit somewhat of a rough patch, with a 3.46 ERA in his last four starts. The 26-year-old right-hander is still tied for the Pacific League lead in ERA among qualified pitchers with a 2.11 mark.
On the season, the Lions’ ace is striking out 21% of hitters and holding them to .215, while walking 7.3% in 81 total innings.
According to Nikkan Gendai, an MLB scout said that Takahashi’s improvement has been a pleasant surprise. “He did not know how to pace himself before, so he’d be tired by around 80 pitches. Since last season, he’s balanced out his delivery and pace. With his frame at 6’2-6’3 and 231 lbs and the combination of an upper 90s fastball and splitter, barring any setbacks, multiple MLB teams should show interest in the offseason.”
4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
The 27-year-old left-handed closer is as reliable as ever, with a 0.77 ERA, 38.8 K%, and 14 saves in 24 appearances in 2023.
An overseas free agent this offseason, Matsui has not clearly stated his intentions for a move to MLB this offseason outside of vague comments made earlier in his career.
Interestingly, he has made some changes this season that may be signaling a potential move.
He has mostly relied on his four-seam, splitter, and slider in his career, but this season he has cut down his slider usage and heavily increased the usage of his splitter. Given that the ability to throw splitters is highly valued in MLB, this could very well be him showcasing MLB front offices that his stuff will translate to the big leagues.
There is certainly a need across the league for left-handed relievers with strikeout ability, and Matsui may be an interesting option.
5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
The 29-year-old right-hander has bounced back from a nightmarish start to the season and is back to looking like an ace for the Fighters. In his last four starts since the previous NPB update, Uwasawa has a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings, striking out 20.8% of hitters and holding them to a .158 batting average, while walking 6.7%.
Stuff-wise, Uwasawa lags behind the other players on the list and profiles similar to former Fighters teammate and former Rangers starting pitcher Kohei Arihara. He faces an uphill battle to earn an MLB contract, but he seems intent on taking on the challenge anyway. Maintaining his current form and finishing the season below a 2.50 ERA would definitely improve his chances.
Younger stars to keep an eye on
1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines
Sasaki has come down to earth a little bit after a 1.00 ERA in April and 1.64 ERA in May. In his last four starts, Sasaki has a 3.24 ERA and two losses. The ‘Monster of Reiwa’ still has a 1.89 ERA on the season, striking out hitters at an unfathomable 40.4% rate and holding them to .146 while walking just 5.6%.
While Sasaki has unquestionable stuff and strikeout ability, building up the stamina to handle a full season workload is the next step in his development. Marines manager Masato Yoshii said that he might skip Sasaki’s next start, saying that he looked tired. Sasaki usually throws on six days of rest this season. Unless he makes a surprise request to be posted, Sasaki has a couple of season to improve that area of his game.
2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows
The reigning Triple Crown winner looks more like himself in June, slashing .291/.418/.455 in 67 plate appearances. On the season, Murakami has a .233/.317/.419 line with a .789 OPS and 11 homers, a disappointing follow-up to his historic 2022 season.
Murakami is striking out on a horrendous 32% of at-bats, and his NPB-worst 89 total strikeouts is 22 more than the next closest at 67 strikeouts. He still has a strong walk rate at 16.5%, but is simply not making good contact.
Murakami is especially struggling to hit velocity, hitting just .083 against fastballs thrown harder than 150 km/h (93.75 mph). and is also struggling to hit righties, hitting just .180.
3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants
A newcomer on this list, Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in NPB who is enjoying a career season. Some of you may remember him for his solo homer that extended Team Japan’s lead over Team USA in the WBC Final.
The 6’1, 220lb slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. Okamoto was the youngest player in NPB to post a .300, 30HR, 100 RBI season. He led the Central League in homers and RBIs in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021,
The soon-to-be 27-year-old corner infielder is hitting .322/.414/.597 with 17 homers, 42 RBIs and an OPS of 1.010 in 2o23. He would be in prime position for the Triple Crown in any other season if it wasn’t for Toshiro Miyazaki and his .372 batting average.
In comparison to Murakami, Okamoto hits for less average and walks less. Okamoto has hit over .300 just once in his career, and has a 10.5% career BB% compared to Murakami’s 16.5%. Okamoto plays average defense at third base and has taken first base and left field reps this year.
Okamoto has hinted at some interest in a potential MLB move, but there is nothing concrete yet. He isn’t set to be a free agent for four years, his age-31 season. The Giants are traditionally against the posting system, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will request a move before that.
Honorable Mentions
The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.
Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai, Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi, Chiba Lotte Marines
