Kyle Tucker

Astros, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

By Darragh McDonald | January 11, 2024 at 5:05pm CDT

The Astros and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12MM salary for 2024, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The outfielder is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Tucker, 27 next week, is coming off another excellent season at the plate. He hit 29 home runs, just one beneath the even 30 he hit in each of the previous two campaigns. He also drew walks in 11.9% of plate appearances while striking out just 13.6% of the time. For reference, the major league averages in those categories were 8.6% and 22.7% in 2023. Tucker’s .284/.369/.517 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% above league average.

His defensive metrics slipped a bit in 2023 but he’s been solidly above average in his career overall. On the basepaths, he stole 30 bases last year, setting a new career high. He swiped 14 bags in 2021 and then 25 the year after.

Tucker first qualified for arbitration last offseason and went to a hearing with the Astros. He filed at $7.5MM but the arbiters opted for the club’s $5MM salary instead. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a jump to $12.6MM but he has settled for a salary just beneath that. He will be eligible for another raise in 2025 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

He and the Astros have had some extension talks in the past but the two sides didn’t appear to make much traction. Regardless, he’ll head into 2024 as part of an outfield that’s also slated to feature Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, with Yordan Álvarez perhaps spending some time there as well when he’s not serving as the designated hitter.

Shohei Ohtani Wins AL MVP

By Darragh McDonald | November 16, 2023 at 5:28pm CDT

Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has been voted the Most Valuable Player in the American League for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers were second and third in the voting, respectively.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Texas Notes: deGrom, Scherzer, Tucker, Verlander

By Nick Deeds | October 17, 2023 at 9:14pm CDT

While the Rangers have gone 7-0 so far through the postseason, ace right-hander Jacob deGrom has been forced to watch his club’s success from home after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. The long time Mets righty sat down with Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently to discuss his recovery process four months removed from the surgery.

Fortunately, it appears that deGrom’s rehab process is going rather well. A typical timeline for a pitcher in deGrom’s situation would be somewhere between 14 and 18 months before returning to a big league mound but deGrom expressed optimism that he could return to the Rangers at the earlier end of that window, with August 2024 as a stated goal. Of course, there’s a long road ahead to reach that point, though Sherman notes that deGrom has regained full range of motion at this point and will be able to return to throwing shortly after the new year, with a mound in sight come Spring Training.

If deGrom is indeed healthy and effective come the stretch run in 2024, he’d surely provide a massive boost to a Rangers club that dominated for much of the 2023 regular season and has seemingly found a second wind during the postseason in spite of a difficult stretch run that saw the club slow to a 38-33 record in the second half this season. Ignoring any possible offseason additions, deGrom would return to a 2024 rotation group that projects to feature former Mets co-ace Max Scherzer, veterans Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, southpaw Andrew Heaney, and right-hander Dane Dunning. When on the mound for the Rangers this year, deGrom was nothing short of excellent with a 2.67 ERA and 1.54 FIP across six starts. His current contract runs through the end of the 2027 season, with a 2028 club option that triggered as a result of him undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year.

More from around the state of Texas…

Sticking with the Rangers, manager Bruce Bochy spoke to reporters this afternoon regarding tomorrow’s Game 3 of the ALCS, where Scherzer is expected to take the mound in a competitive setting for the first time in over a month due to a teres major strain. While Bochy didn’t specify whether or not Scherzer would have any sort of limitations on him headed into tomorrow’s game, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic relayed that Bochy referred to 70 pitches as a “baseline” for Scherzer. That’s in line with his previously reported 68-pitch simulated game prior to the ALCS. If Scherzer is indeed limited in some capacity during tomorrow’s game, the Rangers have plenty of long relief options available to them, including Cody Bradford and Martin Perez.
Meanwhile, Astros manager Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) this afternoon regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the ALCS, in which they trail their division rival 0-2. Baker noted that he’s spoken to outfielder Kyle Tucker about a potential move down the batting order, though he emphasized that such a move would be temporary. It’s been a rough postseason for Tucker, as the 26-year-old has gone hitless in the ALCS so far after slashing just .143/.294/.214 in 17 trips to the plate against the Twins during the ALDS. Baker did not, however, indicate whether or not the club is considering turning to veteran ace and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on short rest for Game 4, saying that the club hasn’t discussed the possibility yet. Verlander would be on three days of rest for Game 4, a situation in which the Astros have used him in the playoffs before. As Rome notes, Verlander struggled against the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS back in 2019 on three days of rest, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.

The Astros’ Potential Outfield Surplus

By Anthony Franco | August 17, 2023 at 12:03pm CDT

Entering the season, the outfield was an area of some uncertainty on an excellent Houston roster. Kyle Tucker is an established star in right field. The other two positions were more questionable. Before Opening Day, Houston brass has suggested they planned to divide left field and designated hitter reps between Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. As it has been for a couple seasons, center field looked to involve a battle for playing time between Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers.

Brantley’s recovery from last summer’s shoulder surgery hasn’t been as smooth as hoped. The five-time All-Star began the season on the injured list, leaving rookie Corey Julks to assume the LF/DH hybrid role alongside Alvarez. Julks has had some good stretches of play but been equally prone to extended slumps. He owns a .245/.299/.353 line in his first 86 big league contests and is currently in Triple-A.

Various setbacks have continued to keep Brantley out of action all season. When Alvarez suffered an oblique strain in mid-June — an injury that’d cost him six weeks — it looked as if the outfield and/or DH could be a problem. Not only has that not been the case, Houston’s outfield has thrived.

Since Alvarez first went on the IL on June 9, Houston outfielders are hitting .281/.370/.504 in 745 trips to the plate. They trail only the Braves’ group in on-base percentage and slugging. They’re third in on-base and sixth in slugging if one also includes DH production (where Alvarez would obviously have seen some time had he been healthy for that entire stretch).

In large part, that’s thanks to Tucker. He’ll find his name on MVP ballots for a third consecutive season. The star right fielder has raked at a .323/.410/.610 clip over that stretch and is hitting .297/.377/.526 overall. Alvarez has picked up where he’d left off since returning on July 26, putting up a .282/.378/.521 mark in 19 games.

It isn’t just the established superstars though. McCormick was a quietly productive player over his first two big league seasons and has found a new gear in 2023. Over 313 plate appearances, he owns a .288/.378/.539 batting line. Of the 215 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, McCormick ranks 18th in OBP and 12th in slugging. He has been on a particular tear of late, with a .317/.410/.593 slash since June 9.

McCormick’s strikeout and walk rates aren’t much different from his prior two seasons. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage haven’t changed and he’s unlikely to maintain a .363 average on balls in play. Yet his uptick in production isn’t entirely about batted ball fortune. McCormick is hitting for more power than he did in his first two seasons, at least in part reflecting a conscious change in his offensive approach.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently chatted with the right-handed hitter about a mechanical tweak he’d made to become more upright in his stance. The goal was to open his front shoulder slightly in order to allow him to become more pull-oriented. McCormick has always had raw power, but an extreme opposite-field approach muted some of that production. Pulled fly balls clear the fence at a much higher rate than flies to center or the opposite field. Few hitters pulled the ball in the air less often than McCormick between 2021-22. That didn’t stop him from being a good player, but it left some power potential on the table (particularly with the Crawford boxes only 315 feet down the left field line in Houston).

The change certainly seems to be paying off. His rate of pulled fly balls this season is nearly twice that of the previous two years. While he’s not hitting the ball harder overall, his average exit velocity on fly balls specifically is a personal high. The production has followed. Even if his BABIP takes a step back, McCormick should be a better offensive player than he’d been over his first two seasons and certainly looks deserving of everyday playing time.

Lately, that has mostly come in left field. Brantley could soon cut into those corner outfield reps. The veteran began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday. Barring another setback, he could rejoin the big league club within the next two weeks. Skipper Dusty Baker will likely carefully monitor Brantley’s workload to ease the stress on his shoulder, but a healthy Brantley can be a key table-setter and adds a left-handed bat to a righty-heavy Houston lineup.

McCormick can play center field, so Meyers’ playing time might be most adversely impacted by Brantley’s expected return. Meyers isn’t having a great offensive season, hitting .227/.303/.385 over 304 trips to the plate. He started the year well, but unlike Tucker and McCormick, he has struggled at the dish going back to the beginning of June. Meyers is an excellent defensive center fielder, though. In 710 1/3 innings this season, he has rated between six and eight runs better than average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast. (In his career, he’s been between 13 and 18 runs above average over 1406 frames.) Plugging Brantley in left, pushing McCormick to center, and moving Meyers to the bench should improve the lineup but will downgrade the defense.

It’s an enviable “problem” to have. Potentially juggling four starting-caliber outfielders helps Houston’s chances of tracking down their in-state rivals in a closely contested AL West. There’s likely to be some degree of concern about Brantley’s shoulder holding up down the stretch. Perhaps he or Alvarez could rotate through first base on occasion, at least while José Abreu is out. However Baker manages it, the outfield looks like a strength for the Astros as they enter the home stretch. And, with each of Alvarez (signed through 2028), Tucker (controlled through 2025), McCormick (controlled through 2026) and Meyers (controlled through 2027) standing as long-term pieces, their outfield outlook looks increasingly bright.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Notes: Tucker, Abreu, Rotation

By Steve Adams | August 10, 2023 at 12:08pm CDT

The Astros and right fielder Kyle Tucker discussed a long-term contract in the offseason and into spring training, but no deal was reached by the time the season got underway, and general manager Dana Brown noted at the time that negotiations were “paused” for the time being. Brown piqued the fan base’s interest in his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show that he’s optimistic the two sides will work out a deal and that Tucker will spend his career with the Astros. He later clarified, however, that talks have yet to resume since being put on hold (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

The 26-year-old Tucker has delivered in spades both on his lofty draft status (No. 5 overall in 2015) and his top-prospect billing. Already a two-time All-Star and a 2022 Gold Glove winner, he’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his exceptional young career. In 113 games and 481 plate appearances, Tucker has slashed .296/.377/.517 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 24 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). He’s just one steal shy of last year’s career-high mark, and he’s on pace for his third consecutive 30-homer season. This year’s 11.6% walk rate is easily a career-high mark, while his 12.9% strikeout rate is both a personal low and the ninth-lowest mark among all qualified big league hitters.

Tucker entered the 2023 season with 3.079 years of big league service and will finish at 4.079, leaving him arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. Given his age, draft/prospect pedigree and general excellence to date, there’s little reason to expect any sort of downturn in the near future. Were Tucker to naturally reach free agency by accruing six years of MLB service, he’d do so heading into his age-29 season — and likely in position to command a contract in excess of $200MM.

The Astros haven’t necessarily shied away from large payroll commitments, but they’ve typically preferred to mitigate the length of any high-priced deals. Jose Altuve’s extension promised him five years and $151MM on top of the remaining two years and $12.5MM on his prior contract. Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract is the longest handed out under owner Jim Crane. That deal covered all three of Alvarez’s arbitration seasons and three would-be free agent years. Tucker is already playing his first arb year on a $5MM salary and will be due a substantial raise this offseason.

Any extension for Tucker would presumably need to top Alvarez’s deal by a good margin — not only in terms of overall guarantee but in terms of length. The six-year term Alvarez landed would cover Tucker’s age-27 through age-32 seasons and set him up for free agency in advance of his age-33 season. It stands to reason that a player of his caliber would more likely be seeking a deal of eight-plus years in length, particularly now that he’s only two seasons removed from hitting the open market in prime position for a mega-deal.

For now, Brown stressed that the focus is squarely on attempting to overtake the Rangers for the lead in the American League West and to engineer another deep postseason run. Tucker will play a focal part of those efforts, of course, but the ’Stros were dealt some potentially difficult news regarding another key contributor following last night’s game. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters this morning that first baseman Jose Abreu reported discomfort in his lower back following yesterday’s game (Twitter link via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated further this weekend.

Abreu’s first season in Houston has been a forgettable one overall, but the former Rookie of the Year and MVP looked to be rediscovering his form earlier in the summer. After floundering to a .211/.276/.260 slash through his first two months, Abreu came roaring back with a .288/.330/.484 output over his next 200 plate appearances. While not quite his peak form, that was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and Abreu looked well on his way to quieting concerns brought about by his sluggish start to the season.

Unfortunately, his production has cratered once again. Abreu has just three hits in his past 39 trips to the plate and has fanned at an uncharacteristic 28.2% clip in that time. It’s unclear how long his back has been ailing, but the recent downturn after an impressive performance in June and July could well be related to the apparent injury with which he’s dealing. The season-long numbers are still ugly (.234/.291/.343), but losing the June/July version of Abreu is a notable hit to any lineup.

Of course, for as many potent bats as the Houston lineup has featured in recent years, elite starting pitching has been a hallmark of Astros clubs throughout their recent peak. The trade deadline return of Justin Verlander should only help to continue that legacy, but the reacquisition of Verlander won’t necessarily cost someone his spot on the starting staff.

Trezza writes that the Astros are likely to move to a six-man rotation, at least for the time being, keeping rookie right-hander J.P. France in the mix. Calling baseball an “earn-it business,” Baker emphasized that France has indeed earned his spot and will stay on turn moving forward.

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. The 28-year-old France has turned in 95 innings of 2.75 ERA ball since making his big league debut earlier this season, emerging as a godsend in the wake of season-ending injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. France has had some modest fortune on balls in play (.277 BABIP) and probably can’t continue stranding 81% of his baserunners — league average is 72% — but he’s looked the part of a solid big league starter even when accounting for some potential regression.

Keeping France in the rotation will have other benefits beyond his own performance. Hunter Brown is nearing last year’s total workload with seven weeks of the season yet to play out. Jose Urquidy just returned from a months-long absence due to a shoulder injury. Cristian Javier has been pitching better of late, but he hit a wall midsummer and had his spot in the rotation skipped heading into the All-Star break. Keeping France on the starting staff alongside Verlander, Brown, Javier, Urquidy and Framber Valdez will help the Astros to manage Brown’s workload and exercise caution, as necessary, with Urquidy and Javier.

AL West Notes: Angels, Astros, Brantley

By Nick Deeds | March 26, 2023 at 7:11am CDT

Angels manager Phil Nevin indicated to reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that the club would not be naming right-hander Carlos Estevez as the closer to open the season, instead opting for a committee approach to open the season. Estevez signed with the Angels earlier this offseason on a two-year deal and was expected to step into the closer role to open the season, but that does not appear to be the plan, at least for the start of the 2023 campaign.

Still, Nevin told reporters that Estevez “is definitely going to get some big outs late in the game most of the year for us,” leaving the door open to the right-hander remaining the conversation to close games for the Angels this season. The Angels have a fairly deep group of pitchers with late inning experience at the back of their bullpen in addition to Estevez that includes Ryan Tepera, Matt Moore, Aaron Loup and Jimmy Herget.

The Angels were aggressive in acquiring shorter-term assets this offseason in order to immediately improve the club during two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani’s final year of club control. The additions of Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela, and Brandon Drury lengthened the lineup and provided depth in case of injuries while the club signed Tyler Anderson to deepen the starting rotation. The additions of Estevez and Moore to the bullpen this offseason certainly improved upon the group of relievers the Angels would’ve otherwise had, but it’s an open question whether or not they did enough to make up for the still-lingering loss of Raisel Iglesias, who was dealt to the Braves at the last trade deadline.

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Attempted Contract Extensions

By Darragh McDonald | March 8, 2023 at 5:28pm CDT

The Astros hired Dana Brown to be the club’s new general manager in January, plucking him from his previous job as vice president of scouting for Atlanta. Since then, he’s been quite open about his desire to replicate that club’s penchant for signing core players to long-term extensions, though his tune has been changing this week.

Brown’s previous employer has been very aggressive at locking up players to lengthy deals, with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris all recently putting pen to paper. Since switching clubs, Brown has mentioned Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as some of the players he’s hoping to be similarly locked up with his new club.

The Javier extension was crossed off the list last month but it seems the plans for the others have hit a few snags since then, as it was reported last night that the club isn’t very close to a deal in its talks with either Valdez and Tucker. Brown provided some comments on the situation to reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, acknowledging that he “felt a little less optimistic” about getting deals done with those two players.

The reporting yesterday indicated that Brown expected to have more information in the next 48 hours. That timeline still seems to be holding today, with Brown saying he’s expecting to hear from the representatives of both players by Thursday afternoon, though he doesn’t want to characterize it as a deadline. “We’re trying to have conversations and, at some point, the player wants to play,” Brown said. “We can still talk. It’s not a deadline. It’s like ‘Hey, I’ll get back to you in the next 24-48 hours and give you an update.’ It’s not that it’s over. It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.”

Despite Brown’s initial eagerness to get these deals done, he’s now operating in a new organization. As Rome points out, the largest extension that the Astros have given out under owner Jim Crane is the five-year, $151MM deal for Altuve, followed by six years and $115MM for Yordan Alvarez and then five years and $100MM for Bregman. Brown suggests that Crane is willing to go a bit beyond the five-year mark, but not substantially.

“I think Jim is willing to (go) further, I just don’t know that I have the comfort of going as long as, say, maybe I’ll have to to get Tucker done,” Brown said. “I just don’t like big deals. If they’re open for something a little more than five, maybe I would be open to doing that. I’m sure Jim would be, too. I think Jim is very open. But doing 10-year deals, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to that point. That’s a lot of years, man. I’m not comfortable doing 10. I don’t mind doing 10 if you get a guy to the big leagues in the early 20s, really feel like he’s a big piece of the franchise, face of the franchise, and get him done for 10 and he finishes it out at 32-33. I’m OK with that,” Brown continued. “These deals that go beyond 33, for me, I’m uncomfortable. The analytics on that is not good.”

Rome adds that he asked Brown about the fact that Atlanta, under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, gave Olson $168MM over eight years and then $212MM over ten years to Riley. “Alex was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy. But I would do multiple years. I would even go up to seven.” Riley’s ten-year deal is set to go through 2032, when he will be in his age-35 season. Olson’s will go through 2029, which will also be his age-35 season. Atlanta has a club option on each player for their respective age-36 seasons. According to Brown’s framing, those deals both went beyond his comfort zone but that Anthopoulos had a greater willingness to lengthen those deals to get them done.

Tucker is 26 years old right now and is set to make $5MM this season after losing his arbitration battle to the club. If the Astros were to offer him a seven-year extension that begins next season, it would go through 2030, which would be Tucker’s age-33 campaign. Taking Brown’s comments at face value, it seems that is where his comfort zone ends. It’s possible that this is merely a negotiating tactic and that the willingness to do a longer deal is greater than he’s letting on. But it’s also possible that the reason a deal hasn’t come together yet is that Tucker’s camp is trying to push for a longer pact that goes into his mid-3os, like those secured by Olson and Riley.

Whether the Astros can bridge those gaps and get extensions done remains to be seen, but it seems Brown’s preference would be for them to come together soon. “I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that,” he says. In the grand scheme of things, these comments perhaps point to Brown changing course from his time in Atlanta, either because that is his prerogative or the organization’s. If one takes him at his word, then this means the club will perhaps have less risk tolerance than Atlanta and will therefore be less likely to hand out extensions to its players. The club’s eventual actions will be more important than words in establishing the reputation, but the outward suggestion is that the blueprint in Houston won’t be exactly the same as it was in Atlanta.

Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

By Nick Deeds and Anthony Franco | March 7, 2023 at 10:45pm CDT

The Astros have spent the past few weeks attempting to work out extensions with a number of key players. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez are among those with whom the club has been in contact, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman now casts some doubt on the chances of either player signing this spring.

Astros GM Dana Brown tells Heyman the club expects to know whether anything will transpire within the next 48 hours. Brown frankly tells Heyman the team is “further away (in negotiations) with Tucker” than Valdez but didn’t handicap the odds of getting a deal done with either player.

Teammate Yordan Alvarez represents one potential comparison point in discussions with Tucker, who has between three and four years of service time. The slugger signed a six-year, $115MM deal just last June, agreeing to a fairly rare midseason extension of significance. Alvarez technically was just shy of three years of service at the time of signing but inked a deal that didn’t go into effect until this year. For all intents and purposes, he was essentially in the same service bucket as Tucker now finds himself.

Alvarez is a better hitter than Tucker and one of the best offensive players in baseball. His career wRC+ of 164 trails only Mike Trout among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances. However, he’s also had some knee issues and been mostly limited to designated hitter, with only part-time work in left field. Tucker, by contrast, is an excellent defensive right fielder.

Alvarez’s deal was the second-largest for a player in the 3-4 year service window. The record still belongs to Freddie Freeman, who signed an eight-year, $135MM deal with the Braves ahead of the 2014 season. Freeman was a year younger than Tucker is now and coming off a stronger platform season. However, that deal is a decade old at this point and Tucker’s camp could look to beat that pact. However, such a deal would be the longest deal in Astros history and the second richest, with only Jose Altuve’s $151MM guarantee surpassing it.

Brown indicated that Tucker is seeking out a longer-term deal than the Astros have historically given out. For his part, the GM seems to have little interest in breaking that organizational tradition, telling Heyman, “I understand that [avoidance of long-term deals], and I respect that. A lot of those long-term deals, they don’t end well.”

Given this, it’s no surprise that Astros brass seems to feel better about their odds of extending Valdez. The southpaw can also look to a teammate as a direct extension comp. In his case, it’s righty Cristian Javier, who signed a five-year, $64MM pact last month. That represented the largest guarantee for a starting pitcher with between three and four years of service time.

It’s fair to expect Valdez’s camp would want to top that mark. Javier’s track record pales in comparison to that of Valdez; while both pitchers sport a 3.05 ERA since the start of the 2020 season, Valdez’s 3.34 FIP outshines Javier’s figure of 3.90 while the lefty also has volume on his side. Valdez has thrown 406 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 campaign, more than a hundred ahead of Javier, and his career best 201 1/3 innings in 2022 have the look of a modern-day workhorse. Javier, by contrast, recorded a seventh inning out just twice during the 2022 season.

That’s partially reflected in Valdez’s better earning power in arbitration. He’s set to make $6.8MM for the upcoming season, whereas Javier was headed for a first-year arbitration salary around $3MM. Valdez, as a Super Two qualifier over the 2021-22 offseason, also had an extra season of arbitration eligibility to build that stronger platform salary. That gap would’ve compounded on an annual basis considering arbitration salaries are based in part on a player’s previous-year salary.

Javier, who celebrates his 26th birthday later this month, had youth on his side in signing that extension compared to Valdez. The southpaw is already 29. That perhaps makes Javier a cleaner long-term bet from the team’s perspective, though it also puts more of a premium for Valdez on securing a lofty guarantee if he’s to sign an extension. While Javier will still get to free agency shortly before turning 31, Valdez would be signing away at least his age-32 season (and perhaps beyond) in any deal that buys out free agent seasons.

Both Valdez and Tucker are controllable through the end of the 2025 season, given the club ample time to revisit contract talks in the future, even if no extensions get done in Brown’s proposed 48-hour window. With that being said, Brown could certainly continue attempting to extend the stay of either Alex Bregman or Altuve in Houston once negotiations with Tucker and Valdez have been tabled. Both veterans are set to become free agents following the 2024 season, meaning there will be far more urgency in locking up that pair of players going forward, particularly once the 2023 season has drawn to a close. The GM has already expressed a desire to retain both players, saying he’d like to keep both in Houston for the entirety of their careers.

AL Notes: Astros, Kahnle, Abreu

By Nick Deeds | March 5, 2023 at 6:32pm CDT

Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on his efforts to extend members of the club’s core while speaking on a radio broadcast this afternoon, as noted by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Brown acknowledged that the club is in extension negotiations with Casey Close, the agent of Houston outfielder Kyle Tucker, saying, “We’re optimistic. We think we can get something done.” while also acknowledging that any contract discussions would likely be tabled if a deal was not in place by Opening Day. Brown also mentioned that the club has begun discussions with left-hander Framber Valdez and his agent about a potential extension, as well.

Brown has been unusually candid publicly about his efforts to extend several members of the Astros core, having made public comments regarding a desire to extend not only Tucker and Valdez but also Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Cristian Javier. Of that group, only Javier has inked an extension thus far, though Altuve and Bregman are both under club control for the next two seasons, while Tucker and Valdez aren’t expected to hit free agency until the 2025-26 offseason.

Brown’s front office will certainly have the financial resources to get extensions done, as the club’s payroll situation leaves Houston plenty of room to maneuver. RosterResource pegs the club’s 2024 luxury tax commitments at just under $159.5MM, and though that figure does not include salaries due to arbitration-eligible players, even a significant raise on the $23.2MM the Astros spent in arbitration this year would leave them with plenty of room under their expected 2023 payroll, which stands at just under $218MM for luxury tax purposes.

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Extension Targets

By Anthony Franco | February 17, 2023 at 8:49pm CDT

First-year Astros general manager Dana Brown took control of the front office on the eve of Spring Training, an atypically late GM hire. With the club’s offseason business mostly taken care of, he immediately turned his attention toward keeping some key players who are already on the roster.

Houston already extended Cristian Javier through 2027. Brown has spoken about seeking out long-term deals for Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman in recent weeks. He added star southpaw Framber Valdez to the mix, telling reporters yesterday the club had been in touch with the representatives for both Valdez and Tucker (link via Associated Press). Meanwhile, Brown stated he’s frankly told agent Scott Boras, who represents both Altuve and Bregman, the duo “should be in Houston for life.”

It’s a fairly quick turn of events with regards to Valdez, in particular. The hurler’s agent Ulises Cabrera told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle on Tuesday he’d yet to have any conversations with the club. Brown predictably didn’t divulge specifics in negotiations and there’s nothing to suggest talks have made any notable progress within the first few days. Nevertheless, it’s unsurprising confirmation the team would like to keep Valdez around.

He’s already under club control through 2025 via arbitration. Valdez will make $6.8MM for the upcoming season and is likely to land a pair of solid raises if he goes annually through that process. The 29-year-old is coming off the best year of his career, one in which he secured a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting thanks to a 2.82 ERA and incredible 66.5% grounder percentage through 201 1/3 innings.

Altuve and Bregman, of course, have been career-long Astros. The former has twice signed long-term extensions with Houston, with the most recent of those deals coming during Spring Training in 2018. That $151MM contract runs through 2024, paying him $26MM annually over the next couple seasons. The deal runs through his age-34 season. Altuve hasn’t yet shown any signs of tailing off, as he’s coming off a .300/.387/.533 showing with 28 home runs.

Bregman inked a $100MM extension a year after Altuve signed his second deal. He’s making $28.5MM in both of the next two seasons and also tracking towards free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The former second overall pick would reach the market in advance of his age-31 campaign if he doesn’t sign an intervening extension. Bregman played at an MVP-caliber level between 2018-19; he’s “merely” been excellent over the few years since then, including a .259/.366/.454 line with more walks than strikeouts last year.

With all of these players under guaranteed contract or arbitration control for at least two more years, Brown and his staff don’t need to get anything done in the next six weeks. Houston’s list of upcoming free agents is comparatively modest: catcher Martín Maldonado, outfielder Michael Brantley and relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek. Houston already has José Abreu, Lance McCullers Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Rafael Montero and Javier on eight-figure contracts for the 2025 season.

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