Kyle Tucker

Astros Notes: Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2024 at 10:22pm CDT

Star Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez departing today’s loss against the Twins after getting struck in the leg by a pitch. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) after the game that Alvarez is “feeling sore” as he nurses the issue, which has been termed a right knee contusion, but that the club has not sent the 27-year-old for any testing.

Alvarez himself spoke to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) after the game as well, telling them through an interpreter that he was hit on the same spot on his knee a couple of weeks ago and that the inflammation from that previous incident had not yet fully gone away when he was struck this afternoon. Alvarez acknowledged he was in “a lot of pain” following the game but suggested that he and the club would see how he feels tomorrow before making any decisions regarding his status.

It’s the second consecutive day the Astros have lost a key player to a hit by pitch, as star second baseman Jose Altuve was removed from yesterday’s game after getting struck in the wrist by a pitch. Altuve wasn’t in the club’s lineup for today’s game, but Kawahara notes that x-rays on the veteran’s wrist came back negative and that the star expected not to miss much time due to the issue. That may still be the case even after he was absent from today’s lineup, as Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) today that Altuve was available off the bench to pinch hit if necessary today, although youngster Grae Kessinger was the one who ultimately replaced Alvarez at DH.

The fact that Altuve, who has slashed an excellent .310/.360/.466 (136 wRC+) across 86 games this year in his 14th year suiting up for the Astros in the majors, is seemingly poised to avoid the IL is surely a relief for fans in Houston as the club attempts to chase down the Mariners in the AL West. Unfortunately, Alvarez may be even more important to the club’s offense. The slugger has hit at his typical elite level this year, slashing .300/.383/.548 with a 158 wRC+ that ranks ninth in the majors across 371 trips to the plate. For an Astros club that has gotten less offensive output than expected from key pieces like Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick, the offense both Alvarez and Altuve provide in the lineup is all the more important, and even a brief absence for either player would be troubling.

While two of the club’s star hitters are dealing with injury issues, a third is making progress toward a return from the IL. Espada also told reporters (including McTaggart) today that outfielder Kyle Tucker did some jogging yesterday as he works his way back from a shin contusion that’s kept him on the injured list for the past month. Espada added that Tucker has also been playing catch and has resumed hitting off a pitching machine. Tucker isn’t expected to return to the club until after the All Star break at this point, but the fact that he’s begun doing some light running and basic drills is an encouraging step forward for a player Houston figures to rely on heavily in the second half.

Prior to being placed on the shelf last month, the 27-year-old was in the midst of a career year, even compared to the standards set by his All-Star campaigns in 2022 and ’23. In 60 games this season prior to going on the shelf, Tucker slashed an incredible .266/.395/.584 with a 174 wRC+. While Tucker’s surprisingly low .245 BABIP holds his overall line down slightly, the outfielder was walking (17.6%) more than he struck out (15.6%) and had slugged 19 homers in just 262 trips to the plate prior to his injury. If he can post numbers in a similar vicinity upon his return to action, Tucker will add another key cog to the club’s lineup and surely help shoulder the load that Alvarez and Altuve have taken on in his absence.

AL West Notes: Tucker, Verlander, Bloss, Woo, Jung

By Leo Morgenstern | July 4, 2024 at 11:06pm CDT

Astros manager Joe Espada offered a disappointing, if not entirely surprising, injury update regarding two of his biggest stars. Speaking to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) ahead of today’s contest in Toronto, the skipper acknowledged that neither Kyle Tucker nor Justin Verlander is likely to return from the IL before the All-Star break.

Tucker has not played since June 3 as he nurses a right shin contusion he suffered when he fouled a ball off his leg. In mid-June, Espada suggested that Tucker would likely require a minor league rehab assignment. With the All-Star break fast approaching and the outfielder yet to begin any on-field work (per Kawahara), it’s hard to imagine he makes it back before the break. The Astros would surely like to have Tucker back as soon as possible, but they have played surprisingly well in their best hitter’s absence. Making sure that he’s healthy for the stretch run is more important than rushing him back in July.

Meanwhile, Verlander has not pitched since June 9; he is dealing with neck discomfort. He is progressing well, but Espada says the future Hall of Famer has not yet gotten back to throwing off a mound. Once again, the Astros could certainly use the veteran in their injury-plagued rotation ASAP, but rushing him back would be a shortsighted move with so much season left to play.

Another point of interest concerning Verlander: As Kawahara notes, it is now extremely unlikely that his conditional $35MM player option for 2025 will be triggered. Even if the 41-year-old were to return immediately after the All-Star break and pitch once every five games for the rest of the season, he would need to average 6 1/3 innings per start to reach the necessary 140 innings pitched.

Finally, Espada also mentioned that rookie Jake Bloss will make a rehab start this weekend. Barring any setbacks, the young righty could make his next start in Houston. Bloss, 23, is generally considered one of the Astros’ better pitching prospects. He landed on the IL with shoulder discomfort on June 21, the same day that he made his MLB debut.

More injury updates from around the AL West:

Rangers manager Bruce Bochy offered reporters an update on Josh Jung, who has been on the IL almost all season. The All-Star third baseman fractured his wrist on a hit-by-pitch on April 1. Jung has recently been nursing a flare-up of discomfort in his injured wrist and has not swung a bat since his last rehab game on June 20 (per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). However, he has no further structural damage. The Rangers are going to shut him down completely for another week, after which they hope he’ll be able to restart his rehab assignment (per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today). Needless to say, this means Jung will not be ready to return to Arlington before the All-Star break.
In more positive news, the Mariners aren’t ready to rule out the possibility that Bryan Woo could return to their rotation ahead of the Midsummer Classic. He threw a successful bullpen session on Wednesday (per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) and will make a rehab start this weekend. If all goes well in that outing, there’s a chance he could make his next start for Seattle. Woo, 24, has pitched exceptionally well in his sophomore season, with a 1.77 ERA in eight starts. Not all of his underlying numbers are quite as eye-catching (4.01 SIERA, 3.96 xFIP), but there’s no doubt the Mariners would like to have the young hurler back as soon as possible to see more of what he’s capable of.

Astros Notes: Verlander, Rotation, Tucker

By Nick Deeds | June 15, 2024 at 10:32pm CDT

The Astros scratched veteran ace Justin Verlander from his start against the Tigers earlier today due to discomfort in his neck. Right-hander Spencer Arrighetti stepped in to make a spot start in Verlander’s stead, but was shelled for seven runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work before he was removed in the second inning.

Verlander spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) prior to the game this afternoon and indicated that his neck has been bothering him for “a couple of weeks” but that he’s attempted to pitch through it to this point. The pain caused him to cut his usual bullpen between starts short earlier this week, but both Verlander and manager Joe Espada indicated that the issue likely won’t result in a trip to the injured list. As Rome notes, the club has three scheduled days off in the next two weeks that will offer the club the ability to be more flexible regarding Verlander’s schedule in the short term.

That being said, the possibility of Verlander missing time is surely a concerning one for the Astros. After all, the club recently lost both Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier for the season due to Tommy John surgery, and both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have spent the entire season on the IL to this point. Neither Garcia nor McCullers are expected back until after the All Star break as things stand; Garcia appears to be closer to a return after throwing a live batting practice last week (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) while McCullers threw a 30-pitch bullpen session yesterday. Garcia is expected to begin a rehab assignment after “two or three” more live batting practice sessions, while McCullers appears to be “on schedule” for a return sometime in August.

With both Garcia and McCullers more than a month away from contributing, the Astros are limited in terms of internal pitching depth behind their current rotation of Verlander, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrighetti. J.P. France and Blair Henley are both in the minors on the 40-man roster, but France last pitched on April 30 due to a shoulder injury while Henley allowed five runs in his lone big league start earlier this year while recording just one out. Right-hander Eric Lauer is pitching at Triple-A while on a minor league deal with the club and seems likely to be the top non-roster depth option available to the Astros, although he struggled to a 6.56 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work with the Brewers last year and has posted similar numbers at Triple-A with the Pirates and Astros this season.

In other injury news, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart provided an update regarding the status of outfielder Kyle Tucker earlier today. Tucker has been on the injured list for just over a week due to a right shin contusion after fouling a ball off of his leg, and McTaggart noted today that Tucker is no longer relying on crutches while moving around the dugout and clubhouse. While that’s certainly a good sign, McTaggart also noted that the soreness hasn’t completely dissipated for Tucker, who is still walking with a limp. According to manager Joe Espada (as relayed by McTaggart), Tucker may end up needing to go on a minor league rehab assignment before he returns if he can’t begin running “in the next day or two.”

A lengthier absence for Tucker would be an unfortunate turn of events for the Astros, as the 27-year-old was on an MVP-caliber pace at the time of his injury. In 60 games with Houston this year, Tucker has slashed a fantastic .266/.395/.584 in 262 trips to the plate while clubbing 19 home runs and stealing 10 bases. That’s good for a fantastic 176 wRC+ even in spite of the slump Tucker fell into in the weeks immediately prior to his injury, where he hit just .150/.255/.300 in his final 47 trips to the plate before landing on the IL. Trey Cabbage and Chas McCormick have split time in right field while Tucker has been on the shelf, with Yordan Alvarez and Mauricio Dubon handling left.

AL West Notes: Evans, Seager, Tucker, Athletics

By Mark Polishuk | June 9, 2024 at 6:23pm CDT

A few players from the 2023 draft have already made their MLB debuts, and Mariners prospect Logan Evans could potentially be coming soon due to his recent move to relief pitching. As Adam Jude of the Seattle Times writes, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently called Evans with the idea of shifting from the Double-A rotation to the bullpen, since the M’s are currently in the enviable position of having a loaded rotation. Working as a reliever could put Evans on the fast track to the Show, and give the Mariners an extra hard-throwing arm in an injury-depleted pen.

A 12th-round pick out of Pitt, Evans has a sparkling 1.16 ERA over 54 1/3 innings for Double-A Arkansas this season, with a 23% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and a 53.6% grounder rate. MLB Pipeline’s scouting report also notes that the Mariners received trade interest in Evans as early as last offseason, after he posted an 0.60 ERA in his first 15 pro innings.

Astros Place Kyle Tucker On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | June 7, 2024 at 11:30pm CDT

11:30pm: Houston will recall Joey Loperfido to take Tucker’s place on the active roster, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (on X). Loperfido debuted earlier this season and hit .333/.381/.436 with a homer in 14 games.

8:36pm: The Astros have placed star outfielder Kyle Tucker on the 10-day injured list with a right shin contusion, tweets Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. The move is retroactive to June 4, meaning Tucker could return a week from now. Houston didn’t immediately announce a corresponding roster move or provide a timetable for his return.

Tucker was injured in Monday’s win over the Cardinals. He fouled a ball off his leg and had to be removed from the game. While the two-time All-Star was on crutches postgame, testing didn’t reveal any fractures. That led the Astros to keep him on the active roster for a few days even though he wasn’t healthy enough to play. He evidently needed more time than the team initially hoped, sending him to the shelf.

It’s probably no coincidence that Houston placed Tucker on the IL just before tonight’s game. A team is allowed to backdate an IL stint by up to three days. Tucker had already been out since June 4. If the Astros had waited into the weekend to put him on the shelf, they’d have pushed back his first possible return date.

The injury halts a fantastic start to the season. Tucker has been a superstar for a few years and has taken his game to new heights in 2024. He has already hit 19 homers across 262 plate appearances. He’s running a .266/.395/.584 batting line with 46 walks against 41 strikeouts over 60 games. If healthy, he should coast to a third consecutive All-Star Game and looks on track to beat last year’s fifth-place finish in MVP balloting.

Despite Tucker’s massive numbers, the Astros head into this weekend’s set against the Angels with a 28-35 record. Their efforts to dig out of that hole will be complicated by the loss of their best player for at least a week. Houston plugged Yordan Alvarez into left field tonight against Griffin Canning, freeing the DH spot for Yainer Diaz and getting Victor Caratini into the lineup at catcher. Trey Cabbage is starting in right field for the second consecutive game.

In other injury news, the Astros announced this afternoon that starters Cristian Javier and José Urquidy each underwent Tommy John surgery (X link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Rome had previously reported that Javier would be undergoing TJS on Thursday. Urquidy’s status wasn’t as clear. While the team announced on Wednesday that he was headed for a season-ending elbow procedure, it wasn’t known whether he’d require a full Tommy John or a modified internal brace repair. Both pitchers seem likely to be out past the 2025 All-Star Break. Urquidy, who would be a free agent after ’25, could be non-tendered next winter.

Dana Brown: “Don’t See Any Scenario” Where Astros Sell At Deadline

By Anthony Franco | June 3, 2024 at 11:21pm CDT

The Astros came back to beat the Cardinals tonight. They’re now 27-34, seven games below .500 and as many back of the Mariners in the AL West. Houston has yet to fire on all cylinders as they seek an eighth straight trip to the AL Championship Series; they’ve yet to climb above .500 after starting the season with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees.

Even as the team has floundered, general manager Dana Brown has painted an optimistic picture in his public comments. Brown told the MLB Network on May 7 that he “couldn’t envision” selling at the deadline. He doubled down on that assertion before tonight’s win. “I don’t see any scenario where we’re sellers,” the GM told the Houston beat (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “I think we’re going to be buyers.”

On the one hand, it’s not surprising that Brown reiterated the stance he expressed a month ago. Even if the front office were privately beginning to consider selling scenarios, it’s far enough from the deadline that Brown is unlikely to publicly declare as much. Houston has a veteran roster that certainly entered the season with championship aspirations. That said, the Astros haven’t done much to change their fortunes in the four weeks since Brown’s last declaration.

Houston held a 12-22 record heading into play on May 7, placing them seven games back in the division. They’ve been better over the past month, going 15-12 over their last 27 contests, but it hasn’t been the kind of resounding play they’ll need to eventually pull out from the hole they dug with a terrible April. Houston’s division deficit hasn’t changed in the last four weeks (though Seattle has jumped the Rangers for the top spot).

The upcoming few weeks could offer that opportunity. Houston has series against the Angels, White Sox, Rockies and Mets in June. They also have two more against St. Louis and three games apiece with the Giants, Tigers and Orioles. Asked whether a poor performance over the next six to eight weeks could force the Astros to sell, Brown said the team “would have to really fall apart” to change direction. “The pitching would have to be struggling. The hitters would have to be struggling. If there’s any sign of hope, I can’t see us doing it,” he added.

To that end, Brown said the front office would like to bring in another bat, preferably a left-handed hitter. Houston is down to Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jon Singleton as lefty hitters on the MLB roster. Backup catcher Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter, while lefty-swinging rookie Joey Loperfido was optioned to Triple-A when José Abreu returned to the MLB roster last week.

Brown’s comments came before Tucker left this evening’s contest when he fouled a ball off his right shin. The star right fielder, who is playing at an MVP level, was on crutches in the clubhouse after the game (noted on X by Adam Spolane of SportsRadio 610). Tucker fortunately told reporters that x-rays came back negative, but that’ll be a situation worth monitoring over the next few days.

First base still stands as the biggest question mark in the Houston lineup. Abreu has only collected three hits in six games since being recalled. His season batting line sits at .115/.170/.161 in 94 plate appearances. Singleton has drawn enough walks to be a roughly average hitter against right-handed pitching. That’s far superior to Abreu’s work but still not imposing at a bat-first position.

The Astros’ biggest need is arguably on the other side of the ball, however. Houston’s rotation has been hit hard by injury and poor performance from their back-end starters. While the club could welcome Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back midseason, they’re in danger of losing José Urquidy for the year. Cristian Javier’s status remains up in the air as he evaluates treatment options for forearm discomfort. Depth starter J.P. France is on the Triple-A injured list with a shoulder concern.

Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti make up Houston’s current rotation. The latter two righties have had particularly rough seasons. Arrighetti has allowed nearly six earned runs per nine through his first nine MLB starts. Brown’s ERA sits narrowly above 6.00. Both pitchers (especially Brown) have looked better in May after being rocked in the season’s first month, but the Astros have very few options behind them if anyone else suffers an injury. Left-hander Eric Lauer is their only upper minors starter with much MLB experience.

Astros Notes: Abreu, Garcia, Tucker

By Steve Adams | May 22, 2024 at 1:23pm CDT

Although prior indications were that Jose Abreu could return to the Astros for this Friday’s series opener against the A’s, it seems his optional assignment in the minors will last at least a bit longer. Manager Joe Espada told the Astros beat today that Abreu will play games with the organization’s Arizona Complex League affiliate today and tomorrow before heading to Triple-A Sugar Land on Friday (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). A return later in the weekend series hasn’t been ruled out, but the team isn’t formally committing to a timeline at this point.

Abreu, 37, rather surprisingly agreed to an optional assignment earlier this year after enduring the worst stretch of his major league career. The former AL MVP opened the season mired in a calamitous slump, hitting just .099/.156/.113 in 77 plate appearances. He’s currently 6-for-18 with a pair of doubles, a walk and two strikeouts — albeit against Rookie-level competition. Any sign of life from Abreu is an encouraging step, given his awful start to the season, however. It seems he’ll get at least a game or two against more advanced Triple-A competition after that confidence booster and mental reset in the ACL.

Abreu is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM free agent contract signed when the Astros were operating without a general manager in place. Owner Jim Crane largely oversaw baseball operations between the surprise ouster of former GM James Click and the hiring of current general manager Dana Brown. That contract gives the club plenty of incentive to try to get Abreu back on track, difficult as his time with the organization has been thus far. Since putting pen to paper, Abreu has mustered only a .221/.280/.352 batting line in 671 plate appearances.

In Abreu’s absence, Jon Singleton has taken up the everyday first base job. He’s turned in a .224/.346/.448 slash in 81 plate appearances with Abreu off the roster, though much of his damage came in the first few games following Abreu’s demotion. Singleton homered last night, but that was his first extra-base hit in nearly two weeks. Between Singleton and Abreu, Houston first basemen have posted a combined .170/.260/.275 line on the season.

Woeful first base production has been just one of many issues for a disappointing Houston club. The Astros’ injury-plagued starting staff has seen major regression from Hunter Brown and J.P. France while rookie Spencer Arrighetti has struggled in his debut campaign. Righty Ronel Blanco is in the midst of a breakout, but stalwart lefty Framber Valdez has been inconsistent. Each of Valdez, Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier has spent time on the injured list already this season.

The Astros are awaiting the eventual returns of notable arms like Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., both of whom opened the year on the injured list while rehabbing from major surgeries. Garcia took a notable step in his recovery this week, throwing off the mound at Minute Maid Park, tweets Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

The 27-year-old Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery early last May, so he’s now past the one-year mark in his recovery. He’ll still need to face hitters in live batting practice/simulated games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment, so a return isn’t nigh just yet. At the same time, it’s encouraging that he’s progressed to mound work and has yet to incur any sort of setback. In 352 innings from 2020-23, Garcia pitched to a 3.61 ERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.

Even as the Astros navigate these shorter-term issues, there are still big-picture items to consider. Brown has said countless times since being hired that he hopes to extend outfielder Kyle Tucker and keep the former No. 5 overall pick in Houston for his entire career. He did so again today, appearing on the Sean Salisbury Show on SportsTalk 790 and stating (X links via 790’s Brian LaLima):

“Currently, not talking extension. We love Kyle Tucker. We have him under contract til 2025. I talked to his agent during spring training but right now we aren’t in discussion. We’d love him to retire here if possible. He knows we want to sign him here and his agent knows we want to sign him here. At some point, we’ll get an offer to him.”

At this point, Astros fans surely take such quotes with a grain of salt. The Astros quickly extended the aforementioned Javier after Brown was hired and have since hammered out a new long-term deal with Jose Altuve, but Brown has routinely made public comments about his desire to extend Tucker, Alex Bregman, Valdez and others without talks ever appearing to gain real steam. That he’s suggesting the team “will get an offer” to Tucker “at some point” seems a clear indicator that there haven’t yet been serious negotiations. Given Tucker’s increasing proximity to free agency and his ascension to bona fide MVP candidate, it’s tough to envision a deal coming together.

Tucker, 27, was already an excellent hitter from 2021-23, but this year’s offensive output is on a whole new level. In 215 trips to the plate, he’s slashing .293/.425/.649 — a mammoth 101% better than the average hitter, by measure of wRC+. Tucker has already belted 17 home runs (one every 12.6 plate appearances) and has walked more than he’s struck out (18.6% to 16.7%).

That level of production, coupled with the fact that Tucker will reach the open market heading into his age-29 season, should position him for the type of long-term megadeal from which Crane has shied away. The Astros haven’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM extension under Crane’s ownership, and the $151MM in new money that was guaranteed to Altuve on the second of his three Astros extensions is the largest sum Crane has committed at once. Tucker could realistically double that sum (and then some) in free agency.

Kyle Tucker On Extension: Some Talks But No Offer

By Darragh McDonald | February 20, 2024 at 5:05pm CDT

Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker addressed the state of his extension talks with the club this week, discussing the matter with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He said the two sides have had some talks but “not a hard offer or anything like that.” The Excel Sports Management client added that he’s open to those discussions, “whether it happens now or a little later.”

Tucker, 27, has established himself as one of the better all-around contributors in the game. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit 89 home runs and swiped 69 bases. Only 19 players in the league had more homers in that stretch and none of those had more steals than Tucker. His .278/.353/.517 batting line in that time has led to a wRC+ of 138, 16th among qualified hitters in that span. He’s also received solid grades for his glovework in right field.

Astros general manager Dana Brown has been candid about his desire to sign extensions with the club’s players ever since getting the job last year. Around the time of those statements, they locked up Cristian Javier with a five-year, $64MM deal. More recently, they got a new deal done with José Altuve, a five-year, $125MM pact.

There’s still time to get something done with Tucker, as he’s under club control through the end of the 2025 season. However, his earning power will only increase as he moves closer to that date. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows just two position players with between four and five years of service time have received nine-figure extensions since the start of 2015. Bryan Reynolds got exactly $100MM from the Pirates while Matt Olson got $168MM from Atlanta.

When looking at players between five and six years of service time, it clearly takes a lot more money to keep them from getting to the open market. Byron Buxton got $100MM guaranteed but with loads of extensions. Xander Bogaerts got $120MM from the Red Sox in 2019, which was generally seen a team-friendly deal. Nolan Arenado got $234MM from the Rockies while each of Rafael Devers and Francisco Lindor got over $300MM, landing at $313.5MM and $341MM, respectively.

If the Astros are motivated to get a deal done, it would be in their interest to do it sooner rather than later. Barring an unexpected swoon in performance or an injury-marred campaign in 2024, Tucker’s price will only rise over the next year or two. Based on Tucker’s framing of the current state of affairs, it doesn’t seem like anything is close to being completed.

They also wanted to get something done around this time last year but reportedly faced notable gaps in those talks and didn’t seal the deal. Tucker went on to have another great year and bumped his 2024 salary to $12MM, avoiding arbitration last month. Brown recently indicated that the club will make Tucker an offer at some point, but time will tell if it will be enough to get his signature on the dotted line.

The Astros are in uncharted waters when it comes to their finances. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their highest Opening Day payroll as $188MM in 2021. This year, Roster Resource has them way up at $240MM. Their competitive balance tax figure is also high for them, currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM. They have never paid the tax before, having only gone over in 2020 when the taxes were waived during the shortened season.

Going forward, there’s a bit more room but the slate isn’t exactly clean. They already have over $100MM committed to 2025, 2026 and 2027, thanks to big contracts for Altuve, Javier, Yordan Álvarez and Josh Hader. Next year’s budget is at $117MM but arbitration raises for Tucker and Framber Valdez could add around $40MM to that, plus raises for players like Chas McCormick, Jeremy Peña and others. Ryan Pressly also has a $14MM option that vests if he makes 50 appearances this year.

The next two years will see players like Tucker, Valdez, Pressly, Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander reach the end of their contracts. Those expiring deals may open up some spending room for the club but will also require them to produce replacements for those key players, which may involve signing free agents. How they look to navigate that double-edged sword should have a notable impact on the future of the club.

Brown: Astros Plan To Make Kyle Tucker Extension Offer

By Nick Deeds | February 11, 2024 at 5:19pm CDT

Astros GM Dana Brown has been candid about the club’s efforts to extend a member of their core ever since he arrived in Houston last winter. Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the first extension the club signed under Brown’s leadership (a five-year deal for right-hander Cristian Javier), and longtime franchise face Jose Altuve agreed to a five-year extension of his own just last week. While attention has generally turned toward third baseman Alex Bregman as he heads into his final year before free agency and Houston brass indicates they intend to offer him a long-term extension offer before he reaches the open market, Brown recently made clear that Bregman isn’t the only star hitter the club plans to broach an extension with.

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio today, Brown told hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette that the club plans to discuss a long-term extension with outfielder Kyle Tucker in addition to Bregman. Brown emphasized that there’s no specifically timeline for when those conversations will be held, though he noted that the club has “a little bit more time for Tucker,” who won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign.

That the club would have interest in extending Tucker is hardly a surprise. Brown identified Tucker alongside Bregman, Altuve, and Framber Valdez as members of the club’s core they were hoping to extend last spring, though the club faced gaps in talks with both Tucker and Valdez before eventually deciding to wait on engaging with Altuve and Bregman until this winter. At the time, Tucker was coming off a stretch of three seasons where he slashed .274/.341/.516 en route to MVP votes in the 2021 and ’22 seasons as well as a Gold Glove award and All Star nod in the latter campaign.

The price on Tucker’s services figures to have only gone up since last winter. The slugger’s age-26 campaign saw him slash a fantastic .284/.369/.517 in 157 games, falling just one home run short of a 30/30 season. He led the AL with 112 RBI and earned his second consecutive All Star nod, the first Silver Slugger award of his career, and a top-5 finish in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez. Tucker and the Astros managed to avoid arbitration last month by agreeing on a $12MM salary for the 2024 campaign, though the sides did not use those negotiations as a vehicle to explore a longer-term arrangement.

With Tucker just one year away from free agency and coming off the best season of his young career, it could be a challenge for the club to extend the Excel Sports client. Under the ownership of Jim Crane, the Astros have never given out a contract longer than six years, nor one that guarantees more than $150MM. Just one outfielder with a similar pedigree to Tucker have inked long-term deals with between four and five years of service time: slugger Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325MM megadeal with the Marlins nearly a decade ago, in November of 2014.

This isn’t to suggest Tucker should exceed or even meet the figure Stanton received, of course. Age plays an important role in a player’s earning power as they approach free agency, a reality that heavily favored Stanton in comparison to Tucker. Stanton was on track to reach free agency ahead of his age-27 season, while Tucker will hit free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. What’s more, his overall offensive numbers pale in comparison to Stanton’s. Impressive Tucker’s career-best 146 wRC+ in 2021 was, Stanton’s wRC+ for his entire career at the time was a comparable 145, with an incredible platform season that saw him slash .288/.395/.555 with a 161 wRC+ the season prior to the deal coming together.

Even as Tucker can’t be expected to sign a deal in the same realm as that of Stanton, it’s nonetheless difficult to see Houston locking up Tucker long term without exiting their apparent comfort zone given the success outfielders have found in free agency in recent years. Former Astros outfielder George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal with the Blue Jays after entering free agency ahead of his age-31 season with a career wRC+ of 134, and more recently Brandon Nimmo re-signed with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM deal last winter after hitting free agency a year older than Tucker is slated to with a career wRC+ of 133. Given Tucker’s youth and similar offensive numbers, it seems likely he’d have a good chance to beat the deals landed by Springer and Nimmo in previous offseasons, even as both players augmented their value with the ability to play center field at the time of the deal.

While the Astros, who have just over $134MM in luxury tax payroll committed for the 2025 season as things stand, could certainly afford to give Tucker a lengthy contract, it seems likely that such a deal would require Houston to enter territory not yet charted by the club with their offer, a similar predicament to the one they face with Bregman. It also seems unlikely that Tucker would offer the club a significant hometowm discount, given comments from Brown last winter indicating that the Astros were facing a larger gap in extension discussions with Tucker than Valdez, neither of whom the club ultimately came together on a deal with.

Between the club’s hesitance to offer star-level contracts throughout Crane’s tenure as owner, Brown’s indication that Bregman is the club’s priority for the time being, and the difficulties the sides faced in bridging what was likely a smaller gap last spring, there’s plenty of obstacles facing Tucker and the Astros should they look to extend their relationship long-term. While it’s impossible to rule anything out given the difficult gaps clubs and players have bridged previously around the league, an extension for Tucker would surely require the club moving well outside of its comfort zone in terms of player payroll. That’s particularly true if a Tucker extension were to be paired with a deal locking up Bregman long-term.

Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers

By Nick Deeds | January 20, 2024 at 4:19pm CDT

While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.

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