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Yankees Notes: LeMahieu, Rizzo, Cabrera, Bader, Pitching Staff

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3:26PM: LeMahieu discussed his toe injury with Rivera and other reporters, saying that he had yet to begin any baseball activities since he isn’t able to rotate his right foot.  LeMahieu is hopeful he might be able to return when the Yankees begin a homestand on September 20, though Boone wasn’t quite as optimistic about that potential return date.

9:25AM: The Yankees were largely able to avoid the injury bug in the early part of the year but it’s caught up with them here in the latter part of the schedule. The club currently has 15 players on the IL, which includes five position players and 10 pitchers. Marly Rivera did a thorough roundup at ESPN, including comments from manager Aaron Boone.

First baseman Anthony Rizzo has been out of action for over a week now but seems to be trending towards a return to baseball activities. A lingering back issue led to him getting an epidural as treatment, but that had the unfortunate side effect of giving Rizzo migraines. Rivera reports that Rizzo received a blood patch to try to alleviate the migraines, which Boone characterized as a success. “Immediately, they had him moving around and walking,” Boone said. “And I think it freed him up right away. Headaches are gone so far.”

Boone then added that if Rizzo feels good today, they will start ramping up baseball activities. While that sounds like good news, the next steps are still a bit murky. Though Boone is hoping for Rizzo to be back in the lineup within a week, it will depend on how things progress. “It’ll kind of depend on how the ramp-up goes. Hopefully, we’ve gotten through what we need to, and now we can start building that process. We’ll just pay attention to how he’s doing and how long it takes him to get rolling.”

With Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu out of action, the Yanks took a shot on Ronald Guzmán, though he was designated for assignment after just a few days. Marwin Gonzalez is holding down the position for now, with Rivera reporting that rookie Oswaldo Cabrera currently penciled in as the backup. Cabrera definitely has versatility, having played a lot of second base, third base and shortstop in his career, as well as some outfield work. He’s never played first base, however, though that doesn’t seem too concerning to the Yanks. Rivera reports that Cabrera has been practicing his work at first, getting a nod of approval from infield coach Travis Chapman.

There could be reinforcements coming for the outfield as well, with Harrison Bader inching closer to his Yankee debut. Acquired from the Cardinals on deadline day, Bader was on the IL at the time with plantar fasciitis and hasn’t been able to officially don the pinstripes just yet. He is going to start a rehab assignment today, though only serving as designated hitter initially. “It’s really just a matter of getting on a baseball field, checking off boxes in terms of feeling comfortable physically at game speed, and once those are checked, I’m going to go and be a winning player for this team,” Bader said.

Giving more details about the rehab, Boone said that Bader will DH today for the Double-A Somerset Patriots, who then have an off-day on Monday, with Bader building up after that. “It’ll probably be at least a week,” Boone said. “If we get through that week, and the buildup is going fine, he could be in play then when we start the homestand.” The homestand Boone referred to begins on September 20, which would give Bader a chance to contribute over the final two weeks of the regular schedule.

As for the pitching staff, the Yanks could have many options over the horizon, as a whole fleet of arms are rehabbing and nearing a return. Aroldis Chapman, Miguel Castro and Zack Britton are all scheduled to pitch for the Patriots today, with Chapman and Castro potentially returning for the same homestand as Bader. Scott Effross isn’t quite at the rehab stage but is gearing up to it. Additionally, Luis Severino is ready for launch but will make one more rehab start since the big league club has a couple of off-days that negate the need for his services in the short term.

The health of all these players, and the roster in general, will be hugely important for the Yankees in the final few weeks of the season. Not so long ago, it seemed that they were in cruise control, leading the AL East by as much as 15 1/2 games in July. This pile of injuries has helped slow the team down and whittle their lead over the Rays to just 4 1/2 games as of today, with the Jays just half a game behind Tampa. With just over three weeks left in the regular season, the Yanks will be hoping to fend off their competitors and keep the division title, which would be hugely important for their postseason chances. Whoever wins the East will almost certainly get a bye through the first round, whereas those who settle for a Wild Card slot will have to survive a best-of-three series to stay alive.

Yankees Notes: Dominguez, Severino, Carpenter

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The Yankees were known to be interested in Luis Castillo before the trade deadline. Jon Heyman of the New York Post sheds some light on the team’s discussions with the Reds, reporting that New York put outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez on the table. Heyman reiterates that New York refused to make top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe available, however, and it’s unclear whether they were amenable to giving up fellow infielder Oswald Peraza either.

Volpe and Peraza are the only two Yankees farmhands who appeared on Baseball America’s most recent ranking of the league’s top 100 prospects. Dominguez checks in fifth in the New York system, per BA. The highest-profile player in the 2019-20 international amateur class, the switch-hitting Dominguez has big power potential but is now seen by many evaluators as likely to eventually move to a corner outfield position. He’s impressed offensively during his first full season at an affiliate, however, hitting .265/.373/.440 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases over 324 plate appearances in Low-A before being bumped up to High-A last month.

Details on the Yankees conversations with the Reds are ultimately an historical footnote, as Cincinnati wound up shipping Castillo to the Mariners for a package headlined by infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo (each of whom appeared among BA’s top 50 farmhands). The Yankees then pivoted to Oakland in their search for an impact starter, landing Frankie Montas for a prospect package headlined by Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears.

Some additional notes on the Yankees big league club:

  • Luis Severino has missed the past month after suffering a lat strain, but he’s making progress in his rehab. The righty threw off flat ground of a distance of 120 feet this afternoon, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com was among those to relay (Twitter link). He’s scheduled for a bullpen session on Monday, his first mound work since landing on the injured list. Severino was transferred to the 60-day IL earlier this month (to his chagrin), but Hoch suggests the club anticipates he’ll make multiple starts in September. That indicates he’s on track to be reinstated around when first eligible during the second week of next month.
  • Infielder Matt Carpenter, meanwhile, went for a visit with a specialist after fracturing his left foot on a foul ball on Monday (relayed by Hoch and Marly Rivera of ESPN). He’ll go a couple weeks without weight-bearing and be reevaluated at some point next month. Further testing confirmed the preliminary diagnosis of a 6-8 week recovery timetable for Carpenter’s return to game action, giving him a chance to make it back for a postseason push. The 36-year-old mashed at a .305/.412/.727 clip through 47 games after signing with the Yankees in May, so it’d be a key boost if the club could welcome his left-handed bat back for the stretch run. Carpenter will be a free agent at year’s end, so a late-season comeback and productive showing in October would also serve as a nice boost to his market.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Yankees Notes: Severino, Lopez, Torres

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On Monday, shortly after the Yankees acquired Frankie Montas, they moved Luis Severino to the 60-day injured list due to his lat strain. That seemed to shine a light on why the acquisition of Montas was so important to the club, as the severity of Severino’s injury wasn’t publicly known at the time. Given that the Yankees don’t expect him to be back before mid-September, it made sense why the rotation upgrade was desired.

However, it seems that the seriousness of the injury came as a surprise to Severino himself, with Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reporting that Severino was unhappy with the transfer. “I was not happy. I was not expecting that,” Severino said of being moved to the 60-day IL.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke to Kirschner about the miscommunication. “When we tried to walk through it with a calendar, (Severino) just didn’t want to see it,” Cashman said. “He just wants to pitch. He’s not capable of pitching yet, and it’s going to take time to get him back on line. We both wish he was healthy right now. We both wish he was capable, but he’s not.”

Manager Aaron Boone tells Kirschner that the Yankees still plan to stretch Severino out as a starter when he returns. That suggests that Severino might need some kind of rehab once his lat has healed, to build back into a starter’s workload. Perhaps the confusion arose from the fact that Severino might start throwing again in about a month but then would need a few weeks to get fully geared up. A minor league rehab assignment for a pitcher can last as long as 30 days. “It just comes down to this is the program that gets him back and you can’t speed up or you risk breaking him again,” Cashman said. “That’s not in anyone’s best interest.”

Though it remains to be seen how Severino’s return progresses, the fact that he was surprised by his transfer suggests that he doesn’t expect to be out longer than the 60-day minimum, allowing him to return just in time for the final postseason push.

Elsewhere in Yankee rotation news, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald relay that the Yankees and Dodgers both pushed the Marlins for a Pablo Lopez trade, with the Yankees getting “closest” to a deal. Though the full trade scenarios that were discussed aren’t know, the report says that Gleyber Torres was mentioned.

It’s unclear if it was the Yankees or the Marlins that wanted to include Torres in trade talks, but it’s understandable why the Marlins would want him. Torres is hitting .257/.312/.466 on the year for a wRC+ of 120. He’s also making just $6.25MM this year and can be retained for a further two seasons via arbitration. However, the Marlins already have a star second baseman in Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is out for the remainder of this season but would be back next year. Torres was a shortstop when he came up but was moved to second by the Yanks after he failed to impress there. Even if the Marlins were willing to give him another try there, that would also be a bit of an awkward fit with Miguel Rojas still around for one more season.

Regardless of the various packages that were discussed, it is notable that the Yanks tried to get yet another starter. As mentioned earlier, they swapped in Montas to take the place of Severino, but then later flipped Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals. That leaves them with a four-man rotation of Montas, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Jameson Taillon. Domingo German has recently been called up from the minors and has made three starts but has a 6.39 so far.

Acquiring Lopez and bumping German back to the minors surely would have been a boon for the rotation, as Lopez has a 3.41 ERA through 21 starts on the year and fairly similar results in the previous two campaigns as well. A trade for Lopez was always going to be a challenge given that he can be controlled for two more seasons beyond this one, but perhaps the two clubs can revisit talks in the offseason and build off the conversations they’ve already had. Taillon is set to reach free agency after this season, potentially causing the Yankees to look for an extra hurler.

Yankees Transfer Luis Severino, Miguel Castro To 60-Day IL, Sign Carlos Espinal

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The Yankees announced a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with righties Luis Severino and Miguel Castro being transferred to the 60-day injured list. Righty Clarke Schmidt was optioned to Triple-A, while another righty, Carlos Espinal, was signed to a major league contract and selected to the active roster.

Severino, 28, was placed on the injured list July 14 due to a low-grade strain of his right lat. Today’s transfer will rule him out until 60 days from that initial placement, which would be mid-September at the earliest.  That absence is longer than most expected, and the Yankees did not reveal Severino’s timeline until after making their acquisition of Frankie Montas official.  Severino could still be a factor for the Yankees in the postseason.  Severino played catch on the field today, reports MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

Severino, 29 in February, pitched only 18 regular season innings in the Majors from 2019-21 due to a lat strain and a drawn-out recovery from Tommy John surgery that included a shoulder injury of its own.  Until this current lat strain, 2022 had marked a return to health and form for Severino, who has a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts.  The Yankees will be weighing his $15MM club option after the season.  Castro, acquired from the Mets in an April trade, pitched acceptably in lower-leverage work out of the Yankees’ pen before straining his shoulder.

Espinal, listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, has never gotten attention from prospect experts but has demonstrated the ability to miss bats at the Double-A level.  After only a trio of appearances at Triple-A, he’s now on the cusp of his Major League debut at age 25.  Schmidt was unscored-upon over his last seven innings, but after throwing 52 pitches on Tuesday perhaps the Yankees preferred a fresher arm in the short-term.  Espinal can help bridge the gap as the Yankees wait for a pair of new bullpen additions to make their way to New York: Scott Effross, acquired from the Cubs, and Lou Trivino, added from the A’s in the Montas deal.

Yankees Place Luis Severino On 15-Day IL, Select Ryan Weber

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The Yankees announced they’ve placed starter Luis Severino on the 15-day injured list due to a low-grade strain of his right lat. Righty Ryan Weber was selected onto the big league club in his place. New York also reinstated reliever Jonathan Loáisiga from the 15-day IL, optioning JP Sears to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last night to clear a roster spot. New York already had a 40-man roster vacancy after designating Weber for assignment last week, a job he’ll now reassume.

Severino left last night’s start against the Reds with shoulder tightness. He’d dealt with slightly diminished velocity and was sent for an MRI this morning. That revealed some degree of injury to his lat, though the Yankees’ specification that it’s a low-grade strain is seemingly a positive development. New York hasn’t provided any specifics on a timetable for his return, but he’ll at least miss a start or two coming out of the All-Star Break.

It’s the first time all season the Yankees are dealing with an injury to one of their top five starters. Severino had joined Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery and Jameson Taillon in staying healthy to this point. Depth starter Luis Gil was lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but New York seems likely to welcome back Domingo Germán coming out of the Break. Out all season due to shoulder concerns, Germán has been on a minor league rehab assignment for the past few weeks. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Lindsey Adler of the Athletic) the righty will make another start with Scranton tomorrow, but he could be in consideration for activation not long thereafter.

Weber rejoins the active roster as a multi-inning option out of the bullpen. The journeyman has been on and off the roster a couple times, twice soaking up some frames of relief but being DFA quickly thereafter. Weber has spent the majority of the year with the RailRiders, pitching to a 2.55 ERA through 24 2/3 innings. He has a modest 18.8% strikeout rate in the minors, but he’s walked only one of 101 batters faced while inducing ground-balls at a solid 47.4% clip. That’s also been the general trend over Weber’s parts of eight seasons in the majors — excellent control and a fair number of grounders but below-average velocity and whiff rates.

Luis Severino Headed For MRI Due To Shoulder Tightness

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Yankees righty Luis Severino left tonight’s start against the Reds early. After allowing four runs through two innings, he came out for his warm-up pitchers heading into the top of the third. After a few tosses, Severino departed the game. The team later announced he’s dealing with tightness in his throwing shoulder.

Severino will head for an MRI tomorrow, at which point the club will surely provide more information. It’s at least a moderately alarming scenario for New York, as he’d been working with slightly diminished velocity through the first couple frames. Severino has averaged 96.1 MPH on his four-seam this season, but Jack Curry of the YES Network was among those to note (on Twitter) he’d been sitting in the 93-94 MPH range early in his start. Severino did top 96 on a couple occasions tonight, but he was clearly hampered physically to some extent.

The 28-year-old is shouldering a significant workload, having tossed 86 innings through 16 starts. That’s on the heels of three straight injury-limited campaigns, as he combined for just 18 MLB frames between 2019-21. After his 2019 season was cut short by lat and shoulder troubles, he underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2020. The rehab and subsequent setbacks due to groin and shoulder problems kept him off the Yankee Stadium mound until last September.

There’s not yet indication Severino’s dealing with anything serious this time around, but the Yankees figure to be cautious with his workload in any event given his year-over-year buildup. New York has had remarkably good rotation health, with the top five of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and Severino starting 84 of the team’s 88 games. They’ve virtually never needed to dip into their depth options, one of myriad reasons they own MLB’s best record at 61-26 entering play tonight.

Yankees Designate Ryan Weber For Assignment

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The Yankees announced that they have reinstated Luis Severino from the COVID-19 injured list, with right-hander Ryan Weber being designated for assignment in a corresponding move. This is the inverse of today’s earlier transaction, where Severino went on the IL, with Weber taking his roster spot. Severino has since tested negative and rejoined the team.

Weber, 31, has worn a number of jerseys in his career, suiting up for Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa, Boston and Milwaukee before this season. This winter, he was signed by the Yankees to a minor league deal and impressed down on the farm. Through 21 1/3 innings with the RailRiders, he had a 2.95 ERA. His 16.9% strikeout in that time wasn’t stellar, though his 1.1% walk rate certainly was.

After Severino experienced viral symptoms and needed to bow out of today’s start, the Yanks called on Weber to help bail them out of the emergency situation. Weber answered the call with aplomb, throwing 3 2/3 innings against the Rays in relief tonight, allowing one earned run on two hits. The Yanks would eventually earn a walkoff 2-1 victory over their division rivals in the contest.

However, as a reward for his valiant efforts, Weber has been sent into DFA limbo. The club will have a week to trade him or put him on waivers. If he were to clear waivers, he would be able to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career.

Yankees Place Luis Severino On COVID IL

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9:05pm: Boone tells reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) that Severino has tested negative and will travel with the team to Toronto for this weekend’s series.

3:34pm: Severino has not tested positive for COVID, Boone told reporters (including Lindsey Adler of the Athletic). He’d experienced viral symptoms overnight but has improved today.

2:26pm: The Yankees have placed starter Luis Severino on the COVID-19 injured list, meaning he won’t start tonight’s ballgame against the Rays as scheduled. That assignment will go to Clarke Schmidt, while right-hander Ryan Weber has been selected onto the big league roster in Severino’s place.

Severino has pitched brilliantly in 11 turns through the rotation. He owns a 2.80 ERA across 61 innings, striking out an excellent 28.7% of batters faced while walking a mere 6.1% of opponents. It’s been a welcome development to see him back in that role after he was limited to seven MLB appearances between 2019-21. The two-time All-Star missed the bulk of the 2019 season battling lat and shoulder troubles, then he underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2020. Groin and shoulder issues cropped up during last season’s rehab process, keeping him from getting back on a major league mound until September.

Once healthy, Severino more or less picked up where he’d left off as one of the game’s top starters. He’s been part of arguably the league’s best starting staff, as the Yankees top quintet all have an ERA of 3.33 or better. Nestor Cortes, Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon and Severino have combined to start 60 of the club’s 62 ballgames, but they’ll perhaps have to dip into their depth to cover a Severino absence.

The club did not specify whether Severino has tested positive for the virus or is being scratched due to symptoms or exposure. Players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence under the 2022 health and safety protocols, although it’s possible to return sooner if the player subsequently tests negative twice and gains clearance from a trio of medical professionals (one each appointed by the league and MLBPA, as well as the team physician). Players who experience viral symptoms but don’t test positive can return as soon as their symptoms abate.

Weber, 31, is headed to the majors for an eighth consecutive season. He’s worked as a swing player for virtually his entire career, starting 16 of his 63 appearances. A control artist who generates plenty of ground-balls, Weber doesn’t throw particularly hard or miss many bats. He’s nevertheless caught the attention of various clubs as a depth arm based on his ability to work multiple innings. Assuming he makes it into a game with the Yankees, Weber will have suited up for six different teams at the major league level.

The Florida native had cups of coffee with each of the Mariners, Red Sox and Brewers last year. He tallied a combined 9 2/3 innings of 13-run ball, bringing his career ERA up to 5.28. Weber signed a minor league deal with New York this past offseason and has spent the year with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, working to a 2.95 mark through eight outings (four starts). He’s walked just one of the 89 batters he’s faced in the minors this year and will offer a long relief possibility for manager Aaron Boone.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

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