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Michael Kopech

Michael Kopech Undergoes Minor Knee Procedure

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White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech underwent surgery to remove a cyst from his right knee this morning, per a club announcement. The rehab process is expected to take six to eight weeks.

Assuming his recovery progresses as anticipated, Kopech should have a normal offseason. It’s nevertheless a sour conclusion to a disappointing year for the 27-year-old. The Sox surely hoped the one-time top prospect would take a step forward in his second full season as a big league starter. Kopech had pitched to a 3.54 ERA a year ago, and while his peripherals were never that impressive, his performance regressed well beyond expectations.

Kopech’s 2023 campaign concludes with a 5.43 ERA across 129 1/3 frames. His 22.7% strikeout rate was a bit above last year’s mark. Yet his walks spiked from an already worrisome 11.5% rate to a completely untenable 15.4% clip. Kopech also surrendered over two home runs per nine innings. Between the walks and the longballs, he has the highest FIP (6.47) of any pitcher with 100+ frames.

Chicago kicked Kopech to the bullpen this month. He finished his season with three relief outings and a “start” as an opener in which he worked one inning. He allowed at least one run in each of those appearances.

New general manager Chris Getz and his front office will have to decide Kopech’s role this offseason. He was effective as a multi-inning reliever two seasons ago, tallying 69 1/3 frames of 3.50 ERA ball with an elite 36.1% strikeout rate and a decent 8.4% walk percentage. Since stretching back out into the rotation to open the ’22 campaign, he’s allowing 4.52 earned runs per nine with a 22% strikeout percentage and 13.6% walk rate.

The Sox have almost no certainty in their starting five. Dylan Cease is locked in as the staff ace, though he’s coming off a relatively disappointing season himself on the heels of last year’s Cy Young runner-up performance. Mike Clevinger is likely to opt for a $4MM buyout over his end of a $12MM mutual option. Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint are better served for depth roles. Garrett Crochet has angled for a starting spot but only logged 10 MLB innings this year because of injury.

That all seems to point to Kopech getting another crack at a rotation spot. He’ll certainly need to perform better than he did this year if he’s to hold that job for a full season. The ’24 campaign will be his second season of arbitration eligibility. Kopech will receive a slight raise on this year’s $2.05MM salary (barring a surprise non-tender) and is on track for free agency after 2025.

White Sox Select José Ureña

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TODAY: The Sox have officially announced Urena’s selection, and right-hander Declan Cronin was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 6) in the corresponding move.  Cronin is dealing with blisters on his throwing hand.

SEPTEMBER 8: The White Sox are planning to select José Ureña’s contract from Triple-A Charlotte, allowing the veteran to start on Saturday against the Tigers, as first reported by Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Chicago has an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding transaction will not be necessary. However, the White Sox will have to make a move to open up space on the active roster.

Ureña last pitched in the majors for the Rockies in April. He signed a major league deal with Colorado during the offseason but was designated for assignment and subsequently released after just five starts. The Rockies are still on the hook for his guaranteed salary, so the White Sox will only need to pay him the prorated portion of the $720K minimum salary for as long as he stays with the MLB club.

The right-hander signed a minor league deal with the Nationals in May but failed to earn a promotion back to the majors, pitching to a 6.31 ERA in 15 starts at Triple-A Rochester. He was released in early August and quickly signed a new deal with the White Sox, reporting to the Triple-A Charlotte Knights. Ureña has looked much better in his four outings with the Knights than he did with the Rochester Red Wings, posting a 3.37 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. He has increased his strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate, and he has not allowed a home run in his last three games.

His recent turnaround at Triple-A is promising, but Ureña still has a ways to go to prove he can be a capable big league starter once again. He gave up 22 runs across 18 1/3 innings with the Rockies this year, and he owns a 5.61 ERA and 5.16 SIERA over the last five seasons.

Be that as it may, the White Sox will take any help they can get in the rotation right now. Their starters rank last in baseball with a 6.26 ERA since the trade deadline. Michael Kopech, who is moving to the bullpen in favor of Ureña, has been the number one culprit, walking 26 batters and pitching to an 8.10 ERA in his last six starts. It wasn’t so long ago that manager Pedro Grifol said, “[Kopech] not being a starter is not anywhere close to what we’re thinking.” However, Kopech’s poor performance has forced the team’s hand. Grifol confirmed to reporters, including Merkin, that the White Sox still view Kopech as a starter long-term, but he will spend the rest of the 2023 season in the bullpen.

With just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, Ureña will have the chance to earn another three or four starts. If he continues to perform like he has at Triple-A Charlotte, he could pitch his way to another major league contract for 2024.

Grifol: Relief Role Not Under Consideration For Michael Kopech

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It’s been an uneven season for White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech. He opened the season with a brutal first month where he posted a 7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings of work, though he was much more effective in May and June, with a combined 2.83 ERA in 60 1/3 innings across 11 starts. Kopech then missed two weeks leading into the All Star break with a bout of shoulder inflammation, and the wheels have completely come off for Kopech in eight starts since then.

The 27-year-old hurler has posted a brutal 7.15 ERA. Looking under the hood at those eight appearances, Kopech has averaged just over four innings a start while allowing more earned runs (27) and walks (31) than strikeouts (25). That translates to a meager 15.1% strikeout rate and an unbelievable 19.1% walk rate over 34 innings since the All Star break.

While Kopech’s brutal second half, uneven first half, and previous success out of the bullpen where he sports a much more palatable career 3.90 ERA all suggest a return to a relief role could benefit the right-hander, James Fegan of the Chicago Sun Times relays that, according to manager Pedro Grifol, a change in role for Kopech isn’t something the club is considering, either for the remainder of the 2023 campaign or for next season.

“Him not being a starter is not anywhere close to what we’re thinking and anywhere close to what he should be thinking,” Grifol told Fegan, “…even the other day, he was able to gain a little bit of confidence as the outing went on, he was up to 98. The potential’s there.” Grifol goes on to argue that the key to Kopech finding success as a starter figures to be on the mental side of the game, saying that “It’s his responsibility and ours to come together to get that mental side right.”

It’s worth noting that the south-siders are lacking in options to replace Kopech for the remainder of 2023 at this point, what with both Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn having been shipped away prior to the trade deadline. With Mike Clevinger, Jesse Scholtens, Touki Toussaint and Dylan Cease all already in the rotation, the club’s options for starting depth on the 40-man roster are limited to the likes of Deivi Garcia and Luis Patino, each of whom were placed on waivers by teams in desperate need of starting depth themselves due to poor performance.

Still, that the Sox don’t seem interested in trying the former first-round pick out of the bullpen even heading into next season is indicative of how the club sees itself headed into the 2024 campaign. With Cease locked into the club’s 2024 rotation barring a trade, Scholtens having made himself an interesting back-end option in his own right, and a deep free agent class of pitchers on the horizon this offseason, it would certainly be possible for the White Sox to construct a rotation that would push Kopech to the bullpen. On the other hand, those types of decisions would presumably fall to the club’s GM, and the Sox have yet to hire a replacement for Rick Hahn and Ken Williams, both of whom were fired last week.

It’s also worth noting that while Grifol indicates Kopech will begin the 2024 season as a member of the club’s starting rotation, internal options from the farm system could make their way to the majors throughout the season and challenge for the right-hander’s rotation spot. Recently-acquired right-handers Nick Nastrini and Jake Eder are both prospects with rotation potential who reached the Double-A level before joining the organization, while oft-injured left-hander Garrett Crochet certainly has the stuff to be an interesting rotation option in the event he can get sufficiently healthy this offseason to stretch out as a starter.

MLB Issues Suspensions Following Guardians/White Sox Brawl

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Per a league press release, Major League Baseball has suspended White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson for six games and Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez for three games following the benches-clearing brawl between the two teams over the weekend. The league also announced one-game suspensions for Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase, manager Terry Francona and third base coach Mike Sarbaugh. White Sox skipper Pedro Grifol was also suspended for one game. Guardians infielder Gabriel Arias and White Sox righty Michael Kopech were both fined an undisclosed amount.

Anderson and Ramirez are both appealing their suspensions, which will be held in abeyance until the appeals process has been completed. Clase will serve his suspension tonight, as will both managers. Sarbaugh will serve his suspension tomorrow.

The suspensions stem from a Saturday altercation on a slide at second base. Ramirez dove headfirst into the bag and felt Anderson applied a tag attempt to the head with too much force. Ramirez claimed after the game that his issues with Anderson predate Saturday’s contest, and he also alleged that Anderson was the aggressor and instigator of the fight (link via The Athletic). Anderson has not yet commented publicly.

Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters

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The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.

Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.

With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.

He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.

Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.

While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.

Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.

There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.

Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

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The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

White Sox Place Michael Kopech On 15-Day IL, Select Bryan Shaw

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The White Sox announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Michael Kopech on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. To fill Kopech’s spot on the active roster, Chicago selected the contract of right-hander Bryan Shaw. To clear space for Shaw on the 40-man roster, infielder Romy Gonzalez was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Kopech, 27, was a first-round pick by the Red Sox in the 2014 draft and came over to the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade prior to the 2017 season. Kopech had a brief cup of coffee in the majors in 2018 that lasted four starts, but became a more permanent fixture of Chicago’s pitching staff in 2021 as a member of the bullpen, where he posted a 3.50 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 69 1/3 innings. 2022 saw the right-hander move to the rotation.

Since then, Kopech’s performance has been solid if unspectacular. In 205 1/3 innings of work across 41 starts, the young hurler has posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.95 FIP. He’s posted a solid 23.3% strikeout rate during that time though his 12.2% walk rate leaves something to be desired, particularly when paired with a groundball rate of just 35.6%. Still, he’s provided solid stability at the back of the club’s rotation. With Kopech joining Mike Clevinger on the shelf, the Sox figure to rely on Tanner Banks and Jesse Scholtens to handle starts in the run-up to the All Star break.

As for Shaw, the veteran hurler was a second-round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2008 draft and was a steady relief option for Arizona and Cleveland from 2011-17, with a 3.13 ERA and 3.52 FIP in 446 1/3 innings of work. In five seasons since then, Shaw has been far less effective, with a 5.23 ERA in 268 1/3 innings of work. He signed with the White Sox on a minor league deal back in April and has delivered a solid 4.03 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level since then. Now, Shaw will join the club’s bullpen mix, covering the middle innings alongside the likes of Gregory Santos and Aaron Bummer.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, heads to the 60-day IL a few weeks after being placed on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation, a designation that will keep him out until late August at the earliest. The utility man hit a paltry .194/.208/.376 in 97 plate appearances for the Sox this season prior to his placement on the IL.

The Trade That Started The Current Era Of White Sox Baseball

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At the end of the 2016 season, the White Sox found themselves at a remove from recent success. They hadn’t posted a winning record since 2012 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2008. There was some talent on the roster but it was decided that it was time to hit the reset button. After much speculation, they gave a clear indication that they were going into a rebuild in December of 2016 when they traded left-hander Chris Sale to the Red Sox for prospects Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Sale was already well established as one of the better pitchers in the game. At the time of the trade, he had thrown 1110 innings with an even ERA of 3.00, striking out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.8% and getting grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. The White Sox had signed him to an extension going into 2013, a deal that ran through 2017 but with two affordable club options after that. Flipping an excellent pitcher with three affordable years of control left little doubt that a significant teardown was beginning.

The trade worked out very well for the Red Sox, as they would make the postseason in two of those three years with Sale, including winning the World Series in 2018. They then signed him to another extension going into 2019, which is a separate matter. Injuries have largely prevented him from providing much value on that deal, but the trade still looks like a success. They gave up some future talent but saw Sale post a 2.90 ERA in 2017 and then a 2.11 in 2018 as they hoisted their fourth title in a span of 15 years after an 86-year drought.

For the Pale Hose, this was the first of several future-focused moves they would make around that time. The day after the Sale deal, they traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for young pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Dane Dunning. In July of 2017, they would send lefty José Quintana across town to the Cubs for a package headlined by prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Many of the players involved in these deals would go on to form the core of the club as it returned to contention, alongside homegrown players like Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr..

The return on Sale needed to be huge, given his immense talent and three remaining years of cheap control. Indeed, the White Sox secured an incredibly significant prospect package, highlighted by Moncada. A high profile youngster out of Cuba, he signed with the Red Sox in March of 2015 for a $31.5MM bonus. This was back before the hard spending cap on international amateurs was put in place, but the Sox did have to pay a 100% tax because they had already exceeded their bonus pool figure, meaning they shelled out $63MM to get Moncada into the system.

He then played incredibly well in Single-A in 2015, hitting .278/.380/.438 for a wRC+ of 135. In 2016, he shot through High-A and Double-A and even made an eight-game debut in the majors. He struggled in that first taste of the show but was still just 21 years old at the time of the trade and was considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in baseball going into 2016 and #2 in 2017.

Prospects with such high rankings are rarely traded, so it was a significant haul for the White Sox. The Red Sox likely have few regrets since Sale helped them to another title, but that wasn’t all Chicago got in return. Kopech was a notable prospect in his own right, having been selected in the first round of the 2014 draft. He had shown good form in the lower levels of the minors and was also on BA’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 in 2016 and was eventually placed #32 going into 2017. Basabe was a bit behind those two but was still an intriguing player, ranked Boston’s #9 prospect in 2016 and then Chicago’s #8 prospect going into 2017. Diaz was the least notable of the bunch but still cracked BA’s list of top White Sox farmhands after the deal, getting the #26 spot.

Moncada would scuffle a bit in his first two seasons in Chicago. Over 2017 and 2018, he walked in 10.9% of his trips to the plate but also struck out in 33% of them. He did hit 25 combined home runs over those two years but his .234/.321/.403 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 99, a hair below league average. In 2019, he finally broke out and showed why he had been so touted as a prospect. He launched 25 more homers that year and slashed .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. He was also graded well for his third base defense and stole 10 bases, leading to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the top 20 position players that year. 2020 was set to be his final year of club control, but the White Sox decided they believed in the breakout and committed to Moncada. The two sides agreed in March of 2020 to a $70MM extension that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since that deal was inked. Moncada slumped a bit in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but the club went 35-25 and qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2008. He was back on form in 2021, hitting just 14 home runs but walking at an excellent 13.6% rate. His .263/.375/.412 line translated to a 120 wRC+ and he continued to get good grades for his glovework, leading to a 4.0 fWAR season. The Sox went 93-69 and topped the American League Central, making the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a frustrating season for both player and team. Moncada made trips to the injured list for an oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and then a left hamstring strain. He got into just 104 games and didn’t play up to his usual standard when on the field. He was one of many injuries that held the club back, as they finished 81-81 and failed to extend their postseason run into a third year. He roared out of the gates here in 2023, hitting .308/.325/.564 in nine games, but he’s been on the injured list for a few weeks now due to a protruding disc in his back that’s touching a nerve.

Though he’s been inconsistent, Moncada has shown the capacity to be an excellent player when everything is clicking and he’s been a key part of the club’s recent success. It’s hard to say the same for Kopech, however, as various circumstances have prevented him from reaching the heights that had previously been imagined for him. By the time the 2018 season rolled around, Kopech was considered by BA to be the #11 prospect in the league. That year, he thrived in Triple-A, posting a 3.70 ERA over 24 starts while striking out 31.3% of batters faced. He got called up to the majors in August but made just four starts before requiring Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the remainder of that season as well as his 2019. He then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season, returning to the club in 2021. Since he had missed two whole seasons, he was kept in relief that year. He fared well in that role, registering a 3.50 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 36.1% of batters faced.

He had built up a decent innings total that would allow him to return to the rotation in 2022, but the reins weren’t completely off. He made trips to the injured list for a knee strain and shoulder inflammation, tossing 119 1/3 innings on the year. He finished with a 3.54 ERA but a diminished 21.3% strikeout rate. A .223 batting average on balls in play likely helped him skate by, with his 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA showing a bit less enthusiasm. He’s struggled out of the gates early here in 2023, with a 7.01 ERA after five starts.

As for the other two players in the deal, Basabe topped out at Double-A in the White Sox’ system before getting designated for assignment in 2020. He was then traded to the Giants, who gave him a nine-game MLB stint that year before outrighting him in the winter. He returned to the White Sox on a minor league deal last year but was released after a rough showing in just nine Triple-A games. Diaz pitched in the lower levels of the system in 2017 but injuries prevented him from getting into any official action after that. His transactions tracker indicates he was officially released in 2021.

It’s too early to completely close the book on the trade from Chicago’s perspective. Moncada is still under contract through 2024 and there’s the option for 2025. Kopech can still be retained via arbitration through 2025. There’s still time for things to change, but as of right now, the deal looks like a sort of microcosm of the club’s rebuild on the whole. There have been some good moments but it hasn’t quite been the runaway success that was envisioned. Moncada has had some good years but has been inconsistent and held back by injuries. Kopech has shown flashes of his talent but hasn’t really put it all together yet.

That semi-successful return in the deal has coincided with a semi-successful stretch of contention for the club, who made the playoffs twice recently but now seem at risk of seeing it fall apart. Their 8-21 record has them in a hole that they will have to crawl out of soon or else they’ll have to consider another selloff like the one they started over six years ago.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

Injury Notes: Marquez, Kopech, White

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German Marquez suffered a left hamstring injury during conditioning drills, though Rockies manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that Marquez was able to do some light running on Friday and play catch.  The injury seems minor enough that Marquez expressed hope that he could still pitch for his native Venezuela during the second round of the World Baseball Classic, though Marquez will be sidelined for the first round of WBC play.

The right-hander is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign that saw him post a 4.95 ERA over 181 2/3 innings and some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball.  Any kind of delay in his spring work won’t help in Marquez’s rebound efforts, and a pitching-thin team like Colorado certainly can’t afford seeing its ace miss any time.  However, the injury may have taken place early enough that Marquez’s Opening Day status may not be in question — as Black put it, “we’re fortunate in a lot of ways, and German realizes this, that it’s the middle of February and not the middle of March.”

More on other injury situations around the sport…

  • Both Michael Kopech and White Sox manager Pedro Grifol think the right-hander is going to be ready for Opening Day, as they updated reporters (including the Associated Press) about Kopech’s status following an injury-marred end to his season.  Kopech spent time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation and a left knee strain, and his season came to an early end when he underwent surgery to fix a tear in his right meniscus.  After an offseason of rehab work, Kopech is now “at a point where the knee’s feeling better, the shoulder’s feeling better.  But it’s just kind of smoothing things out and getting back to 100 percent.” With Kopech tossing only 119 1/3 innings in 2022, his first full season as a starting pitcher ended up being somewhat limited, though he overcame some very shaky metrics to post a 3.54 ERA.
  • Mitch White told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson that he had a slight shoulder impingement in January that somewhat delayed his usual offseason routine, but the Blue Jays righty is now feeling “great.”  White is close to starting to throw side sessions, and that might provide a clearer picture of whether or not White is fully ready as camp opens.  Entering his first full season with Toronto, White struggled to a 7.74 ERA over 43 innings with the Blue Jays after being traded from the Dodgers, but White still enters camp in competition for the Jays’ fifth starter role.
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