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Michael Lorenzen

Latest On Mets’ Rotation Plans

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The Mets have remained in contact with representatives for some free agent starters, write Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic. Britton and Sammon report that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is one of the players with whom New York has touched base.

It doesn’t seem that’s reflective of strong current interest in the 2023 All-Star, however. The Athletic writes that the Mets may be keeping lines of communication open with starters in case they lose another member of their rotation to injury. Presumptive Opening Day starter Kodai Senga suffered a strain in his throwing shoulder last week and isn’t expected to be ready until sometime in May.

[Related: Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen]

Baseball operations president David Stearns said in the wake of the Senga injury that he didn’t anticipate it’d lead to increased urgency to add another starter. Even if that’s currently the case, losing someone else in the next couple weeks could change the calculus. David Peterson is also out into the middle of the season after undergoing an offseason labrum repair in his left hip.

At the moment, the starting five projects as Luis Severino, José Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and one of José Butto, Tylor Megill or Joey Lucchesi. Waiver pickup Max Kranick also holds a 40-man roster spot. The Mets haven’t added any non-roster starting pitchers with MLB experience this offseason. It’s a reasonably deep group but one without a clear top-end arm while Senga is on the shelf.

To that end, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that the Mets should consider pursuing Jordan Montgomery. The left-hander would knock everyone else down a notch on the rotation depth chart. Unlike Blake Snell, he wouldn’t cost the team a draft choice, since Montgomery was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of a midseason trade. It’s unclear how much his camp is still seeking. Montgomery was reportedly looking for a deal exceeding the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured early in the offseason. This deep into the winter, a four- or five-year pact appears much more likely.

The Mets still don’t appear willing to make that level of commitment. SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets haven’t been involved on Snell or Montgomery. Martino adds that they’re unlikely to land a starter from the next tier of free agency (e.g. Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger) unless those players’ asking prices fall. Instead, Martino suggests they’re likely to explore depth additions who could be cut loose by another team at the end of Spring Training or would be amenable to a minor league pact.

New York would need to pay a 110% tax on any spending since they’re in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in three straight years. Signing Montgomery for $22MM annually, to use a hypothetical, would cost the Mets more than $46MM for the upcoming season after taxes — $22MM to the player, $24.2MM in CBT fees. Signing Lorenzen or Clevinger to a $10MM contract would cost the team $21MM.

Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen

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In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a group of high-profile free agents still available this offseason. They’re all represented by the same agency. A few people have pointed this out. There were four of them, and with Cody Bellinger’s new deal with the Cubs, there are now three. (Although J.D. Martinez still could be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some mild attention around the baseball world.

So much focus has been placed on the “Boras Four” — and not just for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the fact that the free agent market still has a handful of good, quality big leaguers who can help teams. None rejected a qualifying offer. None are looking for nine-figure deals. None will require a team to commit money into the 2028 season or beyond.

Arguably most prominent among the remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is fresh off a career-high 153 innings in what was only his second full season as a starter after a six-year run in the Cincinnati bullpen.

Lorenzen isn’t an ace, but he started 25 games last year (plus four relief appearances) and made the All-Star team after a strong first half of the season with the Tigers. Part of his selection to the Midsummer Classic was by default — every team needs an All-Star representative, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — but that shouldn’t be used to downplay the strength of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.

Heading into the All-Star Game, Lorenzen was sporting a solid but unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d started 15 games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was providing fine value. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning in the All-Star Game, and then came roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his best stretch of the season. The right-hander finished his first half with five shutout frames and began the second half with another 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the time the Phillies traded for him in the run-up to the annual trade deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.

By now, most fans and readers are familiar with Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs through eight excellent innings in his team debut before blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter during his first appearance pitching in front of Philly fans at Citizens Bank Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way to 3.23. From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 K/BB ratio.

And, just as most readers were likely already aware of those heights, the subsequent lows for Lorenzen have also been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that same Nationals offense, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch where he was torched for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies were always likely to move Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his experience in the role and the strength of the top of their staff, but they took that step several weeks early.

Lorenzen finished out the year with four shutout innings of relief across three appearances, but that did little to repair the damage of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 41% grounder rate and 1.18 HR/9 — solid production for a fourth starter but nowhere near as enticing as his numbers looked with just six weeks to go in the season.

It’s worth wondering the extent to which Lorenzen simply wore down. He pitched only 110 1/3 innings the year prior between the big leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch more than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping up to more than 150 frames on the year meant pushing his body to levels it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season back in 2015 — his rookie MLB campaign and final season as a starter before the Reds moved him to relief.

Despite the shaky finish, Lorenzen wound up with solid numbers on the season for a second straight year. He’s yet to make a full slate of 30+ starts in a season, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could do so in 2024-25 after building up to 153 innings in 2023. And dating back to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 44.5% ground-ball rate. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a nice 32.6% clip and logged a 10.2% swinging-strike rate that’s not far below the 11.1% MLB average.

It’s not an ace profile by any means, but there are plenty of big league teams that are preparing to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm in the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into one of those spots makes sense for a number of clubs, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the bank. He’s signed one-year deals for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the past two seasons. A relatively modest two-year deal or even a one-year deal at a bump over last year’s salary doesn’t seem unreasonable.

For teams seeking rotation help but unwilling/unable to spend at the necessary levels to sign Snell or Montgomery, a short-term deal with Lorenzen could make sense. That’s not true of every team, however. Let’s take a run through the league and look for some potential fits.

Teams with generally full rotations

Each of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation featuring five veterans and/or young starters who are locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.

Kansas City and Detroit might be stretches to land in this group, but for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would mean pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM salary to the bullpen or cutting him loose. Based on 2023 performances, they’d be better for it, but that’s a lot of money for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to leave that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and any other young arms to try to seize.

Top luxury payors who’d effectively owe double

Each of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxury tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% rate for any additional free agent signings. Even adding Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would mean taking on $9.9MM of taxes and put the total cost of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets recently saw Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder injury, but shelling out nearly $19MM for one year of Lorenzen doesn’t seem like a plausible outcome.

Rebuilding/non-competitive teams

The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at various stages of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three could have been a fit for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, but none seem likely now. The A’s signed Alex Wood and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them four set starters and a deep stock of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen in addition to acquiring Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. They also didn’t trade Dylan Cease. Lorenzen might be an upgrade, but it seems like they’ve added what they’re going to add. The Nationals haven’t done anything to bolster a sub-par rotation beyond signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has effectively declared his team out of the market for additional big league arms.

I’d argue that another non-competitive club, the Rockies, should absolutely be interested in signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of quality innings among their group of incumbents. But Colorado has shown minimal interest in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Field is a tall order.

Payroll and/or luxury tax issues

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them around $3MM shy of the base luxury tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a major penalty for signing Lorenzen — likely just a couple million dollars or so — but they have four locked-in starters and a deep collection of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with top prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not a great fit.
  • Rangers: Despite last year’s World Series win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty regarding the team’s television broadcast outlook. The Rangers could clearly use another arm with each of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured list. The team seems content to ride with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford while waiting on that veteran trio to return, though. GM Chris Young said earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any further additions of note.
  • Rays: The Rays should be shopping in this tier for rotation help, given that they’re relying on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a converted reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of talented but unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, once the game’s top pitching prospect, will be back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but on an innings limit. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) will be back at some point in 2024 but perhaps not until the season’s second half. Getting to that point could be a challenge with the Rays’ current group, but Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (somehow) a franchise record as it is. There’s room to sign Lorenzen for two years on a backloaded deal (particularly if the Rays eventually trade Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM salary), but their current financial outlay makes them a reach — even if there’s a clear need in the rotation.
  • Twins: The Twins have shown interest in Lorenzen but, like the Rangers, have scaled back their spending amid TV revenue concerns. After acquiring Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey suggested he’s likely finished adding to the big league roster. The Twins have a decent starting mix with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it is. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, but an addition apparently isn’t viewed as an imperative so long as the current group remains healthy in camp.

Plausible fits

  • Angels: Perhaps their attitude toward Lorenzen is “been there, done that,” but the Halos have plenty of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, but he has minor league options remaining. Jose Suarez is another option, but he’s also in need of a rebound. If owner Arte Moreno wants to continue his resistance to long-term deals for pitchers, the Angels could bring Lorenzen back without coming close to their franchise-record for payroll or to the luxury tax threshold.
  • Brewers: Gone are the days of the Brewers’ nearly unrivaled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is back to lead a staff that also features a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Hall — acquired in the surprise late-offseason trade of Corbin Burnes — round things out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t far from the big leagues himself. But the Brewers lack some certainty in the rotation and project for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their standards.
  • D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they have some depth for the fifth slot, but none of it is proven. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise record by about $11MM, but if there’s room for one more addition, Lorenzen would solidify the final rotation spot on a win-now club that’s looking to follow up on last year’s surprise World Series bid.
  • Giants: The Giants’ rotation looked like a mess even before injury scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly still in the mix to sign Blake Snell, so there’s clearly money left to spend. Right now, they’ll follow ace Logan Webb with top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are healthy. (Winn recently resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand injury.) Frankly, they could stand to add one of Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
  • Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiety from O’s fans after an otherwise silent offseason on the starting pitching front, but there’s now concern elsewhere in the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is trying to rehab a UCL strain in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to avoid going under the knife after a UCL injury, but the overwhelming majority of such injury scares end in surgery. Meanwhile, John Means is behind schedule and likely to open the season on the injured list due to his own elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, but the Orioles are much deeper in high-end position player prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has just $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They should absolutely be looking for an addition of some sort, and they reportedly showed interest in Lorenzen before acquiring Burnes.
  • Padres: Another team that’s reportedly shown interest in Lorenzen, the Padres have cut payroll significantly and are now more than $20MM from the luxury threshold and nearly $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They only have two clear-cut, proven starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired in the Juan Soto trade, will fill the third spot in the rotation after a strong showing with the Yankees in 2023, but he’s never started more than nine games in a big league season. The other two spots are entirely up for grabs among a group of largely untested arms. There might not be a clearer on-paper fit, although…
  • Pirates: …if there is one, it might be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with recently extended Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in the top spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason. Last year’s No. 1 pick, Paul Skenes, should quickly ascend to the big leagues but that probably won’t happen until this summer. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, but either lack MLB success or are (in the case of Falter and Contreras) are looking to put an ugly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been talking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and other starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his desire to further add to the rotation.
  • Red Sox: Not to be outdone in their need for rotation help amid a shaky collection of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he signs elsewhere or they deem the price too high, Lorenzen could easily fit into the budget of a team that’s nearly $60MM from its franchise record and not close to the luxury tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, but the combination of Nick Pivetta (who lost his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox need quality innings, but ownership clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been followed up with payroll reduction and modest additions on the margins of the roster.

—

If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would join the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Giants and Orioles as the clearest fits for a solid, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Finances very likely are an issue for Tampa Bay, however, but any of those five other clubs — arguably in that order — should be able to find room to raise their rotation’s floor by plugging Lorenzen in at a price that won’t break the bank.

Angels Hoping To Add To Rotation

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The Angels are looking to add to their rotation and have been “mulling” whether to make a run at Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though Heyman adds that they’re more likely to go after a back-end guy like Michael Lorenzen. The club has been loosely tied to Snell and Montgomery earlier in the offseason but without anything seeming close or particularly viable.

The club’s current rotation projects to be fronted by some combination Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. Options for the fifth spot include Chase Silseth, José Suarez and Zach Plesac. That competition also would have had Sam Bachman in it, but Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that Bachman had arthroscopic surgery last fall and won’t be ready for Opening Day.

That rotation mix has talent but plenty of question marks. Detmers had a 3.77 ERA in 2022 but it jumped to 4.48 last year. Sandoval went from 2.91 to 4.11 while Anderson jumped from 2.57 to 5.43. Canning was healthy enough to get to 127 innings pitched last year but that was a new high for him, thanks to injuries and the pandemic. Suarez missed most of last year due to a shoulder strain. Silseth has just 81 innings of MLB experience and only 45 2/3 at Triple-A. Plesac’s ERA shot up to 7.59 with the Guardians last year. There was some bad luck in there but he was nonetheless passed through waivers and outrighted off the roster.

Given those question marks and the inevitable pitcher injuries that arise in a long baseball season, there’s plenty of logic in adding to that group. A run at Snell or Montgomery would be interesting, as there are reasons to doubt the possibility. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the largest contract the Angels have given a starting pitching since the start of 2012 is the three years and $39MM they gave Anderson. That historical lack of spending on starting pitching and owner Arte Moreno’s recent comments about operating with a lower payroll this year would make it surprising to see the Angels suddenly splurge on Snell or Montgomery.

Even with a lower payroll, it’s possible they have some powder dry. They opened last year with an Opening Day payroll of $212MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and also flirted with the luxury tax line. This year, Roster Resource pegs them at $173MM, almost $40MM below where they were a year ago. Their CBT number of $188MM is almost $50MM below this year’s $237MM threshold. That could leave some wiggle room for them to make a notable signing while still having lowered their spending slightly.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell for $200MM over seven years and Montgomery for $150MM over six. The fact they are still on the open market in mid-February suggests they may be having difficulty getting into that range, so perhaps there’s an opportunity for the Angels to make something work, despite their past resistance to long-term deals for starters.

Either would immediately become the best pitcher on the staff, if added. Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young victory, posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres last year. He’s had his ups and downs but is obviously one of the best in the league when he’s throwing well. Montgomery has continued to build his innings totals and lower his ERA since returning from Tommy John surgery. He tossed 44 innings in 2020 with a 5.11 ERA, then got to 157 1/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA in 2021. He followed that up with 178 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball and then 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA last year, then adding another 31 postseason frames with a 2.90 ERA.

But signing someone like Lorenzen would be more the Angels’ style and they have, in fact, done it before. After years of being pushed to the bullpen by the Reds, the Halos gave Lorenzen a one-year, $6.75MM deal and let him try starting in 2022. It went reasonably well, as he made 18 starts and logged 97 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA.

He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Tigers and pushed himself even farther in terms of workload and results. He had a 3.58 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with Detroit before getting flipped to the Phillies. He made two excellent starts for his new club, the latter being a no-hitter, but seemed to run out of gas after that. After completing his no-hitter, he was sitting on a 3.23 ERA through 122 2/3 innings on the year. He was lit up the rest of the way and finished the season with an ERA of 4.18, but it seems possible that was a result of him pushing his innings tally into new territory.

MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $22MM deal this offseason. He remains unsigned and is arguably the best starter in free agency apart from Snell and Montgomery. Unless the Angels plan to make a pivot and open themselves up to the idea of a mega deal for a pitcher, Lorenzen would be their best path to solidifying the rotation. Other notable remaining free agent starters are Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, Eric Lauer, Noah Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto.

Twins Still Exploring Starting Pitching Market

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The Twins lost a trio of starters in free agency, as Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals, Kenta Maeda signed with the division-rival Tigers, and Tyler Mahle signed with the World Series-champion Rangers. The acquisition of Anthony DeSclafani helps to replenish some depth, but they’re still poking around the market for further starting pitching help.

Both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (video link) have suggested recently that Minnesota could make some further additions before long. The Twins, who’ve scaled back payroll while spending much of the offseason facing questions about their television broadcast rights, aren’t likely to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Twins reportedly had interest in Michael Lorenzen prior to adding DeSclafani, and Morosi suggests that pitchers like Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard are in the general price range the Twins are actively considering.

As things stand, the Twins still have a solid group of starters, though the depth isn’t as strong heading into 2024 as it appeared to be in 2023. Pablo Lopez had the third-most strikeouts in all of baseball last season while finishing ninth innings pitched and logging a 3.66 ERA. He’ll lead the staff, followed by righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. The former carried a sub-3.00 ERA with outstanding K/BB marks through his first 15 starts before fading down the stretch. He’ll look for a stronger finish to the 2024 season but has nonetheless cemented himself as a useful big league starter. The latter touts a 3.37 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate in 200 1/3 frames dating back to 2022.

Beyond that trio, the Twins are hoping to get a full season’s worth of starts from righty Chris Paddack, who returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2023 and pitched well out of the bullpen. The former Padre allowed three runs in 8 2/3 innings between the regular season and postseason, turning in an electric 14-to-1 K/BB ratio in that time (41.8% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate). However, the 28-year-old has just 40 2/3 innings total since 2022 (minors and postseason included), and he’s only reached 100 innings in two MLB seasons. Counting on him for 30 starts seems wildly optimistic.

The veteran DeSclafani and 26-year-old right-hander Louie Varland will vie for the final starting job. DeSclafani, 34, has battled injuries over the past two seasons and pitched poorly when on the field, but he gave the Giants 31 starts of 3.17 ERA ball as recently as 2021. The Twins are only on the hook for $4MM of this season’s $12MM salary, with the Giants paying $6MM and the Mariners kicking in $2MM as part of the Jorge Polanco trade with the Mariners that also brought reliever Justin Topa and top prospect Gabriel Gonzalez to Minnesota. Varland has pitched 94 innings of 4.40 ERA ball in the big leagues. He was immensely homer-prone in 2023 (2.12 HR/9), but he boasts strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates, leading metrics like SIERA and xFIP (which normalize home-run rate) to peg his 2023 performance at solid marks of 3.77 and 3.81.

It’s a fine top six, but the departure of Maeda and particularly Gray, who finished second in AL Cy Young voting this past season, still loom large. The Twins will surely be banking on more consistency from Ryan and more innings from Paddack, but there’s no getting around the fact that the group looks weaker than it did in 2023 — particularly late in the season, when Gray and Maeda were both pitching quite well.

Barring some type of surprising trade, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will find a way to replace the quality of Gray’s innings. Free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there, but the Twins have been cutting payroll due to their murky television situation. Minnesota formally announced a one-year extension of their deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports today, though presumably at a lesser rate than they received in 2023. The outlook beyond that point remains unclear, too. A major splash for Snell or Montgomery would come as a shock.

Deepening the group by bringing in someone like Lorenzen probably wouldn’t give the Twins the same type of Game 1 or 2 playoff starter they had in Gray, but springing for quantity has some merit as well. Even adding 150 or so league-average innings would help to safeguard against injury concerns among the current group (Paddack and DeSclafani, most notably), push DeSclafani to a long-relief role to open the season and push Varland to Triple-A, where he could work out of the rotation and be summoned as injuries dictate. Roster Resource currently projects a $123.5MM payroll for the Twins — more than $30MM shy of last year’s season-end mark but in the general $125-140MM vicinity they were reportedly targeting for the upcoming season.

Padres Have Shown Interest In Jarren Duran; Still Considering Free Agent Starters

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The Padres have shown interest in Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re not alone in that regard, per the report, which indicates that multiple clubs have reached out to the Boston front office to express interest. There’s no indication any sort of deal is nigh, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic similarly hears that the Sox and Padres have had “recent” trade discussions as part of the Friars’ ongoing search for outfield help. San Diego has also considered a reunion with outfielder Tommy Pham, per Lin, though he further notes that no formal offer has been made.

Duran, 27, would fill an acute need for the Padres, whose only established MLB outfielder at the moment is Fernando Tatis Jr. Beyond Tatis and Jose Azocar, San Diego doesn’t even have an outfielder on its 40-man roster. Non-roster invitees to spring training like Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson and Cal Mitchell are among the current options to vie for a roster spot in spring training, although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the Padres have also been considering the idea of deploying top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill in the outfield this season as well. Merrill, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 and the game’s No. 17 prospect according to Baseball America, would also need to be added to the 40-man roster.

Duran is a former top-100 prospect himself, though he just broke through with his first real major league success as a 26-year-old in 2023. The now-27-year-old former seventh-round pick appeared in 102 games for the Red Sox and batted .295/.346/.482 with eight home runs, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and a 24-for-26 showing in stolen base attempts. Duran also trimmed his formerly problematic strikeout rate to a more manageable 24.9%, although his 6.6% walk rate is two percentage points shy of league-average.

While Duran has elite speed — 95th percentile, per Statcast — his route running and lack of arm strength have led to well below-average grades in center field. Defensive Runs Saved is most bearish, pegging him at -19 in just shy of 1200 innings, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at -10.5 and Outs Above Average has him at -2. Azocar is capable of handling center field, however, so an acquisition of Duran could lead to him slotting into left field in San Diego, where his glovework would grade more favorably.

There are fair questions about whether Duran can sustain last year’s production at the plate, however. Last year’s .381 average on balls in play may not regress all the way to league-average levels, as players with elite speed can turn grounders into hits at a far higher clip, but Duran’s penchant for chasing pitches off the plate (career 35.1%) and below-average contact rate on such offerings has a tendency to undercut his above-average contact skills on pitches within the zone (92.1%).

Boston’s appetite for dealing Duran remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting that he was drafted back in 2018 and the Sox have now turned over their front office twice since making that selection. First-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow doesn’t have the connection with Duran that predecessors Chaim Bloom and Dave Dombrowski may have. And while Duran is ticketed for a regular role with the Sox as the roster is currently constructed, Boston isn’t short on outfield alternatives.

Were Duran to be moved, the Sox could turn to Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu from left field to right field, with designated hitter Masataka Yoshida also mixing into the corners on occasion. Roman Anthony, Boston’s second-round pick from the 2022 draft, has already climbed as high as Double-A and recently placed 21st on BA’s Top 100 prospect rankings, creating further depth.

The Padres don’t have that type of outfield depth, due in no small part to years of aggressive win-now trades that have combined to thin out the system. San Diego has also been working to scale back payroll, which would make a pre-arbitration player like Duran a natural target. He’ll very likely be arb-eligible next winter as a Super Two player, but he’d fit the team’s desire to manage payroll during the 2024 campaign. And with just 1.155 years of big league service under his belt, Duran could be controlled for five more seasons.

Lin further reports that while the outfield is the greater focus at the moment, San Diego is still exploring the free-agent market for rotation help. He lists Michael Lorenzen, old friend Eric Lauer, and Hyun Jin Ryu as pitchers with whom the San Diego front office has spoken. Heyman, too, lists Ryu as a potential target for the Padres.

Of the three, Lorenzen is coming off the best and healthiest season. An All-Star for the 2023 Tigers, Lorenzen was traded to the Phillies at last summer’s deadline and thrust himself into the spotlight with a pair of dominant performances to begin his Phillies tenure. The converted reliever began to fade after a masterful 124-pitch no-hitter against the Nationals in early August, however, and his struggles snowballed to the point that the Phils dropped him from the rotation to the bullpen. Lorenzen closed out the year with a dismal 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings following that no-hit gem.

Lauer, 28, is a former Padre who went from San Diego to Milwaukee alongside Luis Urias in the trade bringing Trent Grisham to the Friars. He looked to be on his way to a breakout in Milwaukee after adding a slider to his repertoire in 2021, and from ’21-’22 he posted a combined 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 innings. The 2023 campaign was a disaster that saw Lauer torched for a 6.46 ERA in 46 2/3 innings. Milwaukee optioned him to Triple-A to try to get him back on track, but Lauer yielded a 5.15 earned run average in a near-identical sample of 43 2/3 innings there.

Elbow and shoulder injuries have both sent Lauer to the injured list over the past two seasons. It’s possible that he wasn’t at full strength in 2023, given that pair of IL trips and a major dip in his average fastball (93.3 mph in 2022; 91.2 mph in 2023). If Lauer is at full strength, he’d be a nice buy-low option — particularly since his 4.111 years of MLB service make him controllable through the 2025 season for any team that signs him.

As for Ryu, he pitched well in his return to the Blue Jays following Tommy John surgery. The ten-year MLB veteran notched a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts and 52 innings, though his performance wasn’t without its own reasons for hesitation. Ryu only pitched beyond the fifth inning once in 2023, and the Jays never let him reach even 90 pitches in an appearance. Last year’s 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low mark, and his 17% strikeout rate was his third-lowest in ten MLB seasons. Ryu was quite homer-prone in 27 innings in 2022 before undergoing surgery, but he was even more susceptible to the long ball last year, yielding nine in his 52 innings (1.56 HR/9).

Lorenzen might still have enough track record and interest to generate a two-year offer in free agency, but it’s likely Ryu and certainly Lauer will be available on one-year pacts that check in under $10MM — well under in the case of Lauer, who’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.2MM salary before being non-tendered. San Diego’s current $159MM payroll and $215MM luxury tax projection (via Roster Resouce) should leave some room for additional spending, even as the team looks to cut spending. Last year’s Padres payroll climbed as high as $255MM.

Twins Rumors: Solano, Duvall, Lorenzen

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The Twins finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, shipping out stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco in a trade that netted big league righties Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani as well as prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen from the Mariners. The Twins picked up a net savings of $5.25MM in the trade as well, which president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has already suggested will go toward adding a bat from outside the organization. One possibility the Twins may be considering, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, is a reunion with veteran utilityman Donovan Solano.

It’s unlikely that the 36-year-old Solano would command the entirety of that savings, let alone any resources beyond that point. He played the 2023 season on a one-year, $2MM deal he signed with the Twins after spring training had already begun. Solano didn’t necessarily post eye-popping numbers but was a quietly important piece of the Twins’ AL Central title, turning in a strong .282/.369/.391 batting line with a career-high 8.9% walk rate against a 22.2% strikeout rate (just south of league average but also a career-high mark). That batting line was 16% better than average, by measure of wRC+, and Solano paired it with his typical defensive versatility, logging time at first base, second base and third base.

Bringing back Solano would deepen the team’s bench mix and once again provide a right-handed-hitting complement to lefty-swinging first baseman Alex Kirilloff. However, it’s also debatable whether the need is as pressing this time around as when Minnesota last signed Solano. Royce Lewis has emerged as the team’s everyday third baseman, with Carlos Correa at shortstop. The Polanco trade cleared the way for 2023 rookie standout Edouard Julien to step into an everyday role at second base. Kirilloff is likely to man first base, and the Twins have another right-handed-hitting option, Jose Miranda, as a righty option to pair with Kirilloff.

The 2023 season was an injury ruined disaster for Miranda, as he struggled in both the majors and Triple-A before eventually undergoing shoulder surgery. But in 2022, the former top-100 prospect debuted with a strong .268/.325/.426 slash and 15 homers — including a particularly stout .289/.348/.454 showing following a dismal three-week stretch to begin his career. If Miranda is back to full strength, he can certainly be that right-handed partner for Kirilloff at first base. And, the Twins also have former top-10 picks Brooks Lee and Austin Martin on the cusp of the majors, each adding to the infield depth.

To that end, Heyman notes that Minnesota is also exploring the market for outfield help. Presumably, the target would be a right-handed bat, as corner options Matt Wallner, Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach all bat left-handed. Byron Buxton expects to be back in center field this season after spending last year as a DH following knee surgery but is, as always, a major injury question mark. The Twins have utilitymen Willi Castro and Nick Gordon as center field alternatives, and the aforementioned Martin is also no stranger to the position. But a righty bat who can handle center field still seems like a prudent addition, whether that be a reunion with Michael A. Taylor or perhaps a different free agent like Adam Duvall or Randal Grichuk.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have indeed considered Duvall, specifically. The 35-year-old, righty-swinging slugger is capable of playing all three outfield spots but is best suited for corner work at this stage of his career. Duvall ripped 21 homers in just 92 games for the Red Sox last year while slashing .247/.303/.531 overall.

Contact and plate discipline issues have long plagued Duvall. He fanned in 31.2% of his plate appearances last year against just a 6.2% walk rate; in his career, he sports marks of 28.7% and 6.7% in those respective categories. The Twins had MLB’s highest strikeout rate last year, and while they’re subtracting Joey Gallo (42.8%) and potentially the previously mentioned Taylor as well (33.5%), they’ll also surely give more at-bats to young strikeout-prone players like Julien (31.4%) and Wallner (31.5%) in 2024. Adding another strikeout rate of 30% or more could be problematic, but they’re surely weighing that against the benefits Duvall could bring to the roster.

In the rotation, the Twins’ addition of DeSclafani has addressed some of the depth issues, though the veteran right-hander isn’t going to be mistaken as a direct replacement for outgoing Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, who signed a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals. The Twins, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, were showing interest in free-agent righty Michael Lorenzen before adding DeSclafani in the Polanco swap.

The addition of DeSclafani could well push young right-hander Louie Varland to the bullpen or the Triple-A St. Paul Saints’ rotation, but it’s not entirely clear yet whether it precludes the addition of someone like Lorenzen (a former teammate of DeSclafani’s in Cincinnati). Lorenzen made his first All-Star team in 2023 after a strong start to the season, and after being traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, tossed a no-hitter in his second start as a Phillie.

Things derailed quickly thereafter, however, as Lorenzen — a reliever-turned-starter — looked to fade down the stretch while navigating the tail end of a career-high 153-inning workload. He pitched to an 8.01 ERA in 30 innings following that no-hit gem, eventually being dropped from the Philly rotation to the bullpen. On the whole, Lorenzen finished with a 4.18 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.

Minnesota’s payroll currently projects around $118MM, which is about $37MM shy of last year’s $155MM mark. Earlier reports in the winter suggested a target in the $125-140MM range, so there ought to be room to add someone of Lorenzen’s caliber or a similar starter in free agency, particularly since they’re only on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s salary. Further addressing the rotation isn’t a foregone conclusion, but it remains something for the Twins to consider as the clock to spring training ticks.

Padres Among Teams Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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The Padres have expressed some interest in free agent righty Michael Lorenzen as they look to fill out their rotation, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The 32-year-old Lorenzen is among the more notable free agent starting pitchers yet to sign this offseason.

Lorenzen is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Reds setup man hit the market two winters ago in search of an opportunity to move back to a rotation — the role in which he broke into the majors as a rookie. That led to a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels that produced solid results but was cut short at 97 2/3 innings due to a shoulder strain. Lorenzen took another one-year deal last offseason, this time landing a $8.5MM guarantee from the Tigers. The end-of-season results look solid — 4.18 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate — but also don’t necessarily tell the whole story of his season.

A strong first half (and a generally underwhelming Tigers roster) helped to both propel Lorenzen to his first All-Star Game and position him as a trade candidate who was in relatively strong demand. Lorenzen turned in a 3.80 ERA as a Tiger, soaking up 105 2/3 innings in 18 starts (5 2/3 frames per outing) while fanning 20% of opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. The Phillies eventually acquired him to help stabilize the rotation down the stretch, and in the early stages of his Philadelphia tenure the trade looked like a masterstroke.

Lorenzen’s Phillies debut was sensational. He tossed eight innings of two-run ball against a contending Marlins club, limiting the Fish to a pair of runs on six hits and a walk. One-upping that type of debut is no small feat, but he did so in spades, tossing a no-hitter against the Nationals in his second start. Lorenzen looked like an instant Phillies success, but things went downhill quickly thereafter.

Whether due to a career-high workload, some type of minor injury or a simple run of poor performance, Lorenzen wilted in such substantial fashion that the Phils eventually dropped him to the bullpen. In the five starts immediately following that 124-pitch no-hitter, Lorenzen allowed 26 runs (23 earned) on 37 hits and 11 walks with just 14 strikeouts in 26 innings. His first outing as a reliever for the Phils saw him serve up another four runs in just one-third of an inning. He recovered with four shutout innings over his final three relief appearances, but what looked like a breakout season in mid-August ended with a whimper.

Even with that wobbly finish, Lorenzen is a sensible target for a Padres team in need of solid innings and rotation depth. The right-hander built up to 153 innings in 2023, and while he may have faded down the stretch, that workload might also make him less likely to deal with any late-season fatigue in 2024. San Diego’s current rotation includes Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King, with a host of unknowns vying for the final two spots. Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jay Groome are among the options for the final two spots.

It’s a deep collection of arms, all of whom other than Groome have at least some MLB experience, but no one from that bunch has proven much as a starter. Even King, whom the Padres acquired from the Yankees in the Juan Soto blockbuster (alongside Vasquez and Brito) has never pitched a full big league season as a starter. An injury to Musgrove and/or Darvish — both of whom have spent time on the IL in recent seasons — would render the Padres heavily reliant on a cast of general question marks. Lorenzen has some questions himself, but he’s also pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball over the past two seasons. There’s little doubt he’d be a steadying presence.

The question for the Padres is one of payroll. San Diego was reportedly aiming to scale back payroll by as much as $50MM this offseason, which was the driving factor behind the Soto trade in the first place. They also swapped out an experienced but relatively expensive reliever (Scott Barlow) for a less-proven and lower-cost bullpen arm (Enyel De Los Santos) and have allowed Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez to depart via free agency (with Blake Snell likely to follow). The Friars have spent some money, bringing in NPB reliever Yuki Matsui and KBO reliever Woo Suk Go on low-AAV multi-year deals, but the offseason has been more focused on subtracting big salaries than bolstering a win-now roster.

As things stand, the Padres’ payroll sits at a projected $156MM, with $212MM of luxury tax obligations, per Roster Resource. That’s a massive $100MM shy of their end-of-season 2023 payroll level, which ought to leave the Padres with some money to make modest additions between now and Opening Day. Lorenzen, who’s also drawn interest from the Orioles, makes as much sense as any fit on the market, but the Padres presumably have limited resources with which to work and holes in the outfield, on the bench and at designated hitter.

The Top Unsigned Starting Pitchers

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the top catchers, first basemen, third basemen, shortstops and center fielders still available. Here’s a rundown of the top starting pitchers who’ve yet to sign.

Top-of-the-Market Arms

  • Blake Snell: The two-time Cy Young Award winner has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $200MM or more. The Yankees are said to have offered Snell something in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term, but it’s understandable if Snell and agent Scott Boras are aiming higher coming off the lefty’s NL Cy Young win. The Yankees gave a larger contract to Carlos Rodon last offseason despite a shorter track record. Snell’s shaky command has been a talking point throughout his free agency, but an elevated 13.3% walk rate didn’t hinder him much in 2023 when he pitched 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball and whiffed 31.5% of his opponents. Snell made the easy call to reject a qualifying offer. He’ll eventually land a nine-figure contract, in all likelihood. Beyond the Yankees, he’s been connected to the Giants, Angels and Blue Jays.
  • Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery’s climb from Tommy John rehab to bona fide playoff starter was steady and arguably under the radar — at least until last year’s postseason heroics. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and started 30-plus games in each of his three full seasons back from Tommy John surgery, steadily adding more innings each season. Taken in total, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball since Opening Day 2021, highlighted by a career-best 3.20 earned run average in a career-high 188 2/3 frames in 2023. Add in the 33 2/3 postseason innings of 2.67 ERA he’s chipped in, and the profile looks even better. Montgomery isn’t a flamethrower but is a durable arm with average strikeout and ground-ball rates, strong command and a repeated ability to manage hard contact. The Rangers want him back but are facing some financial questions regarding their television broadcast outlook. Other teams to which Montgomery has been tied include the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.

Solid Innings

  • Mike Clevinger: Fans who remember Clevinger’s peak days in Cleveland probably value him more than the current market does. The now-33-year-old righty had a brief but excellent peak in 2017-20 when he tossed 489 1/3 innings and logged a 2.96 ERA. Clevinger missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, however, and had a pedestrian 2022 campaign in San Diego. Last year’s 3.77 ERA in 131 1/3 innings with the White Sox was a step forward, but since returning from surgery Clevinger touts a lackluster 19.4% strikeout rate. His velocity is down a mile per hour from its peak, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever — as well as more fly-balls than ever. Clevinger made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings in 2018. He’s never reached 25 starts in another season. He can improve the back of most teams’ rotations, but counting on him for more than 120 innings is tough.
  • Michael Lorenzen: A big first half with the Tigers and a memorable no-hitter in his second start following a trade to the Phillies looked to have positioned Lorenzen for a sizable contract this winter. Things went south in a hurry following that no-hitter for the 32-year-old righty, however. Lorenzen hadn’t topped 100 innings since his rookie season and looked to hit a wall following that hitless gem. He allowed 23 runs in 26 innings over his next five starts, was dropped to the bullpen and immediately tagged for four runs in one-third of an inning. Lorenzen pitched 30 1/3 innings following the no-no and yielded an 8.01 ERA. Even prior to his slowdown, Lorenzen was sporting a well below-average strikeout rate. With last year’s 153-inning performance and 4.18 ERA fresh in mind, he’s a candidate to serve as a fourth starter somewhere.
  • Hyun Jin Ryu: Many of the numbers for Ryu in his return from Tommy John surgery last year looked good: a 3.46 ERA, a 6.3% walk rate, a 45.6% ground-ball rate. Ryu, however, fanned only 17% of his opponents — a far cry from his 27.5% peak. He also managed only 52 innings in 11 starts — an average of about 4 2/3 frames per outing. Ryu only recorded an out after the fifth inning one time in 2023, and he had only 33 plate appearances in which he was facing his opponent for the third time in a game. His 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low. Ryu can still help a rotation, but it’ll be hard to treat him like more than a pure five-inning pitcher, given last year’s usage.

Injury Cases

  • Clayton Kershaw: In early November, Kershaw announced that he’d undergone surgery “to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule” in his left shoulder. If that sounds ominous, it is. He’s expected to be sidelined into the summer of 2024 at the very least. Kershaw was also a free agent last offseason, and the prevailing wisdom was that he’d re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers, whose stadium is just a few miles from Kershaw’s offseason home. The Dodgers have said they want Kershaw back, but all parties are taking their time as he mends from that surgery. Once he’s ready to make a decision, it seems like it’ll come down to L.A. and Texas once again.
  • Brandon Woodruff: The longtime Brewers co-ace was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline late into the 2024 season. Woodruff would’ve been a free agent following the 2024 campaign anyhow, and the Brewers were understandably wary about paying him a projected $11.6MM in arbitration when he can’t even be considered a lock to pitch this year. Woodruff is a candidate to sign a high-priced two-year deal that’d allow him to spend the bulk of the 2024 campaign rehabbing. In an ideal scenario, he’d return late in the year to get some innings in before stepping back into a full rotation role in 2025. He fits best with a deep-pocketed team willing to take a chance on his 2025 season and capable of absorbing the financial hit if he can’t return to form. From 2018-23, Woodruff pitched 637 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate.

Former Dodgers hurlers Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias are both unsigned but could be long shots to return to MLB. No team signed Bauer last offseason after his record suspension under the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy was lifted; he’d been given a 324-game ban after sexual assault allegations arose, but that ban was reduced to 194 games after an appeal. The Los Angeles district attorney’s office declined to pursue criminal charges but did not proclaim Bauer innocent; rather, the DA’s office stated that proving the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt” was not feasible. Bauer signed with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and made 19 starts for their big league club, totaling 130 2/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA.

Urias, meanwhile, is currently under investigation after the DA declined to pursue felony charges following abuse allegations against the pitcher. He was referred for misdemeanor consideration, and the case is ongoing. Urias was allegedly captured on video in a physical altercation with a woman following an LAFC Major League Soccer match back in September. MLB has yet to conduct its own investigation while waiting for the legal process to play out. He finished the season on paid administrative leave. If the league eventually brings forth a suspension, Urias would become the first player to ever be suspended twice under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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The Orioles have been connected to various starting pitching targets all winter and that search is ongoing. General manager Mike Elias said so himself today, telling reporters such as Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Elias hasn’t ruled out a free agent addition but says the club’s farm system makes a trade more likely. In terms of free agent pursuits, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists Michael Lorenzen as one they have shown interest in.

Pitching is a clear target area of the club’s roster. They are loaded with position players but the rotation is lacking in certainty. Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty each became free agents after last season and have since signed elsewhere.

Both Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez finished the year strong, but the former has less than two years of big league experience and the latter less than one. John Means will be in the mix but he hasn’t pitched much over the past two years due to Tommy John surgery. Dean Kremer should be in the back end somewhere after posting a 4.12 earned run average last year. Cole Irvin could be a factor but he struggled last year, getting moved to the bullpen and the minors throughout the year. Guys like Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann or Cade Povich could factor in as well. Elias also said that DL Hall is still viewed as a starter in the long term, per Kostka, but may remain in the bullpen for the short term.

For a club that just won 101 games and is looking to compete again this year, there’s clearly room for upgrades there. They should have the ability to make any kind of move they want, due to their payroll and organizational situations. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal since signing Alex Cobb in 2018. That means their future ledger is wide open and their 2024 payroll is only at $81MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure but still bottom three in the league for this year, ahead of only the Athletics and Pirates.

They also have a stacked farm system, considered by many to be the strongest in the league. With that combination of an elite farm system and a clean payroll slate, the options are theoretically endless. Throughout the winter, they have been connected to all sorts of arms. That includes one of the top free agents in Aaron Nola, though he subsequently re-signed with the Phillies. It also includes the lower tiers of free agency, with guys like James Paxton and Domingo Germán having been connected to the O’s, though Paxton is now reportedly in agreement with the Dodgers. The Orioles have also been interested in trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes.

Despite all of that interest, they have yet to pull the trigger on any move to address their rotation, with pitchers and catchers set to report to Spring Training in less than three weeks. Elias continues to insist that a trade is a likely path forward, though it remains to be seen if they can get anything done. The asking price on Cease is reportedly very high, with the White Sox asking for multiple top prospects. The possibility of the Brewers trading Burnes has seemingly faded as the offseason has progressed.

On the free agent side of things, Lorenzen is apparently another name they have considered. The 32-year-old spent much of his career as a reliever with the Reds but has been pursuing a return to starting work since reaching free agency. He signed with the Angels in 2022 and was able to make 18 starts and log 97 2/3 innings. His 4.24 ERA was passable in that time. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate were a bit worse than average, but his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong.

That wasn’t astounding production but a step in the right director in terms of workload. In 2023, he seemed to take another step forward after signing with the Tigers. Through midseason, he had already made 18 starts and thrown 105 2/3 innings. He had dropped his ERA to 3.58 and lowered his walk rate to 6.5%. He was traded to the Phillies and kept the good times rolling for a while. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings in his first start as a Phillie and then threw a no-hitter in his second.

From that point, things went off the rails. Lorenzen was shelled for 27 earned runs in his final 30 1/3 innings, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process. It’s fair to wonder if he simply ran out of gas. After years of working out of the bullpen, he pushed himself to almost 100 innings in 2022. After the no-hitter, which took him 124 pitches, he was at 122 2/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.23 ERA. The rough finish added almost a full run to his ERA, pushing it to 4.18 for the year overall.

Arguably, another year of pushing himself in terms of innings could lessen the late-season drop-off. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lorenzen for a two-year, $22MM deal. His market has been fairly quiet this winter but he reportedly held a showcase for interested clubs earlier this week.

Elsewhere in Oriole news, manager Brandon Hyde says that righty Dillon Tate is healthy and looked “unbelievable” recently, per Kostka. Tate didn’t pitch in the majors in 2023, as he was diagnosed with a forearm/flexor strain in November of 2022 and wasn’t able to get healthy last year. He went on multiple rehab assignments but was never returned to the big leagues. When he was last healthy, he threw 73 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2022 with a 3.05 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 57.4% ground ball rate. If he is back in good form, it could be a boon for the bullpen.

Pirates Showing Interest In Noah Syndergaard

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The Pirates are among multiple teams that have expressed interest in free agent righty Noah Syndergaard, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. According to Murray, both Syndergaard and right-hander Michael Lorenzen threw a bullpen session in front of teams today.

While it’s unclear which teams are involved in Lorenzen’s market, Pittsburgh is apparently considering Syndergaard as a rebound target. He’ll certainly settle for a one-year contract for a third straight offseason. After locking in a $21MM guarantee from the Angels in 2021-22 and a $13MM pact from the Dodgers last winter, he’s looking at a cheaper deal this time around.

That’s a reflection of Syndergaard’s trouble finding his form since he returned from Tommy John surgery. He underwent the elbow procedure in March 2020, essentially wiping out two seasons. During his first year back, he turned in a 3.94 ERA over 25 appearances for the Halos. While that’s decent run prevention, the righty wasn’t nearly as overpowering as he’d been before the surgery. He fanned just 16.8% of opposing hitters, nearly eight percentage points below his 2019 mark.

The Dodgers hoped that Syndergaard would rediscover that level in his second year after surgery. Instead, the lack of missed bats caught up to him. He was tagged for a 7.16 ERA over 12 starts in Los Angeles. The Dodgers placed him on the injured list and flipped him to the Guardians in a change-of-scenery swap that sent infielder Amed Rosario to Southern California.

Things didn’t get much better in Cleveland. Syndergaard returned from the IL to start six games. He pitched to a 5.40 ERA while allowing 10 home runs in 33 1/3 innings. The Guardians released him at the end of August. He didn’t sign elsewhere and finished his year with a 6.50 ERA across 88 2/3 frames. His 14.3% strikeout percentage and 8.2% swinging strike rate were each personal lows, while he allowed a career-worst 2.23 home runs per nine innings. Once one of the sport’s hardest throwers, the righty has lost a lot of velocity in recent seasons. His fastball was down around 92 MPH on average last year.

Syndergaard is still just 31 years old, so it stands to reason some clubs have optimism about helping him rediscover some of that lost arm speed. He has excellent control and has walked fewer than 6% of opposing hitters in each of the past two seasons. If he can even find the 93-94 MPH he brandished in 2022, he’d be a potential back-of-the-rotation starter.

The Pirates would benefit from that kind of production. Pittsburgh’s rotation is led by Mitch Keller. They’ve already targeted Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales as rebound fliers, while players like Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras and Quinn Priester could vie for back-end jobs.

Pittsburgh’s signing of Aroldis Chapman pushes their projected player payroll to roughly $79MM, above last year’s $73MM Opening Day figure. It’s unclear how much budgetary room remains at the front office’s disposal.

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