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Braves, Phillies Announce NLDS Rosters; Kyle Wright Placed On 60-Day Injured List

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With Game 1 just hours away, the Phillies and Braves announced the rosters for the NL Division Series.  The announcements come with some notable transactions, as Atlanta has placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain.  In other moves, Max Fried was activated from the 15-day injured list as expected, and rookie Daysbel Hernandez was also activated from the 60-day IL and included on the NLDS roster.

The news brings a disappointing season to an end for Wright, as shoulder problems limited him to only 31 innings and  6.97 ERA.  After returning from the 60-day IL in September, Wright was hit hard in two starts before being moved into a multi-inning relief role, which would likely have been his role on a playoff roster.  With Charlie Morton’s finger injury keeping him off the NLDS roster, the speculated plan was for the Braves to use Bryce Elder as the Game 3 starter and perhaps Wright as either a piggyback starter or more of a true reliever.  AJ Smith-Shawver made the NLDS roster and now looks to likely step into that secondary starter role for Game 3.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported some of the Braves’ roster plans yesterday, including the somewhat surprising inclusion of Hernandez.  The righty made his Major League debut on July 23, and threw 3 2/3 innings over four appearances before being sidelined due to forearm inflammation.  Eventually moved to the 60-day injured list in September, Hernandez could now make his return in the postseason spotlight.

An international signing out of Cuba in 2017, Hernandez just turned 27 last month, and he has a history of missing bats in the minor leagues.  With a 3.03 ERA over 157 2/3 innings in Atlanta’s farm system, Hernandez has a very impressive 30.35% strikeout rate, and his high-90s fastball could be an intriguing secret weapon for the Braves in the playoffs.  However, it is possible the Phillies might benefit if Hernandez can’t harness his pitches, as he has a 12.44% walk rate during his minor league career.

Philadelphia will return 25 of the players from the group who defeated the Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series.  The one change is Michael Lorenzen, as the Phillies will add an extra pitcher and remove a position player in Weston Wilson.  Lorenzen posted a 5.51 ERA over 47 1/3 innings and 11 appearances after being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadlne, and the last four of those outings came out of the bullpen due to Lorenzen’s struggles.  Barring an emergency, Lorenzen will continue to work as a reliever during the NLDS.

There are three off-days during the series, so the unusual scheduling allows for extra rest for the top-choice starters.  Ranger Suarez and Spencer Strider are today’s scheduled starter, Fried and Zack Wheeler are slated to face off in Monday’s Game 2, and Aaron Nola takes the hill for Philadelphia in Game 3 against a Braves starter TBD (likely Elder).  Suarez and Strider figure to return in a potential Game 4, and then a Wheeler/Fried rematch awaits in a possible Game 5.

The full rosters…

Phillies

Braves

Phillies Weighing Bullpen Role For Michael Lorenzen

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The Phillies could deploy Michael Lorenzen out of the bullpen down the stretch, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that the Phils had yet to make a final decision but suggested they were likely to move back to a five-man rotation after today’s off day.

Philadelphia’s front four is locked in. They’ll go with Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Zack Wheeler over their next few appearances. If they go back to a five-man staff, they’ll need to decide between Cristopher Sánchez or Lorenzen for next Tuesday’s start in Atlanta.

Sánchez has been the more effective for the Phils. The 26-year-old southpaw owns a 3.40 ERA over 87 1/3 innings on the season. After striking out 10 Braves hitters in 7 1/3 frames last night, he has a quality 23.6% strikeout percentage to go with a huge 56.4% grounder rate. He has demonstrated excellent control, cutting his walk rate below the 4% mark.

Lorenzen hasn’t found the same level of success overall in Philadelphia. He started his tenure brilliantly, rattling off eight innings of two-run ball during his team debut in Miami and no-hitting the Nationals at home in his second start. Things have spiraled in the few weeks since that historic outing. Lorenzen has allowed four-plus runs in each of his last five appearances, topping out at six innings. Since the no-hitter, he has a 7.96 ERA with a minuscule 11% strikeout rate.

The 31-year-old’s overall production is still solid. Including his strong first half with the Tigers, he owned a 3.23 ERA across 122 2/3 innings a month ago. Even after the rough few weeks, he’s allowing 4.06 earned runs per nine altogether. Yet he’s also in uncharted territory from a workload perspective, with his 148 2/3 frames easily topping his previous career high of 113 1/3 innings as a rookie back in 2015.

Lorenzen had worked almost exclusively out of relief for the Reds from his second season onward. Upon reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason, he prioritized a rotation spot and signed a one-year pact with the Angels. He logged 97 2/3 innings a season ago, with injuries capping him at 18 starts. That was still a heavier load than he’d shouldered during his time in the bullpen but fell shy of a typical starter’s capacity.

The righty hasn’t shown obvious signs of physical decline. His velocity this month is in line with his early-season level. The results have fallen off sharply, though, perhaps reflecting a more subtle dip in Lorenzen’s execution.

Gelb suggests the Phils have given some thought to deploying Sánchez and Lorenzen as a tandem duo in the fifth starter’s spot. That’d allow them to keep an eye on the workload for each, though it’s arguable they’d be better served acting more definitively. Both pitchers have handled themselves well when turning a lineup over, so there’s not a pressing need to mitigate either’s ’times through the order’ splits. They each have experience working as relievers, with Lorenzen particularly familiar with a high-leverage short relief role from his time in Cincinnati.

The Phils occupy the top Wild Card spot in the National League and are in strong position to secure a playoff spot. Both Sánchez and Lorenzen would likely play relief roles in October, at least in the opening three-game Wild Card series. They’ll conclude the regular season with 16 games in 17 days, starting tomorrow.

Lorenzen is headed back to free agency in the offseason. Even if he’s kicked to the bullpen for the last couple weeks, he’s in position for a much stronger pact than the $8.5MM guarantee he received from Detroit a year ago. He’s going into his age-32 campaign and could find three- or four-year offers this time around.

Phillies Designate Andrew Vasquez, Release Josh Harrison

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The Phillies announced a series of roster moves today, adding infielder Rodolfo Castro and right-hander Michael Lorenzen to the roster, both of whom were acquired in trades yesterday. To open one roster spot, Josh Harrison was designated for assignment, as reported yesterday. He has now been released. The other spot was opened by left-hander Andrew Vasquez being designated for assignment.

Vasquez, 29, came to the Phillies in the offseason when they claimed him off waivers from the Giants. He is out of options but has managed to stick on the active roster for the entire season up until now. He’s tossed 39 2/3 innings over 30 appearances with a 2.27 ERA.

On the surface, that makes it somewhat surprising that he’s now lost his roster spot, but the numbers under the hood aren’t quite as impressive. His 8.2% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate are pretty close to league average, but his 20% strikeout rate is a few ticks below. He’s benefitted from a .274 batting average on balls in play and 86.8% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side, leading to a 4.31 FIP and 4.29 SIERA.

The Phillies were apparently expecting some regression and have bumped him off the roster. Since he’s out of options and the trade deadline has passed, that left them little choice but to designate him for assignment and try to pass him through waivers. In the event he clears, he will have the right to elect free agency since he has a previous career outright. Despite his out-of-options status, he could garner interest from a club with more ability to keep him on the active roster. He has a career 3.60 ERA in 52 appearances and comes with five seasons of control beyond the current campaign.

As for Harrison, he’s making a $2MM salary this year and has played poorly, hitting just .204/.263/.291. He wasn’t going to be claimed off waivers and has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining all of his salary. That means his return to the open market was inevitable and the Phils have simply skipped the formalities. He’ll be free to sign with the other 29 clubs for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Phillies pay.

Phillies To Acquire Michael Lorenzen

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The Phillies are reportedly acquiring Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers. Infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee is headed back to Detroit.

Lorenzen has seemed a near-lock to be traded for a few months. The right-hander has found plenty of success in his second season since moving back to the rotation. After posting a 4.24 ERA through 18 appearances for the Angels last year, he’s allowing 3.58 earned runs per nine in as many outings this time around.

Signed to a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal last winter, Lorenzen began his Detroit tenure on the injured list. A groin strain cost him the first two weeks of the season, but he was on the Comerica Park mound by mid-April. He was hit hard in two of his first three outings but settled in nicely thereafter.

Lorenzen has worked 105 2/3 innings, just under six frames per start. He’s not blowing hitters away; his 19.9% strikeout rate and 9.8% swinging strike percentage are each a little lower than the respective MLB averages. Lorenzen has shown much improved control, though, keeping his walk rate at a modest 6.5% clip after handing out free passes north of 10% of the time in each of the previous three seasons.

All told, Lorenzen has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 18 outings. He secured his first All-Star nod as a result. He’s been effective against hitters of either handedness, holding lefties to a .201/.279/.355 line and right-handers to a .274/.293/.381 slash. He’s mixing four pitchers (four-seam, slider, changeup and sinker) with regularity.

The middling whiff rates lead ERA estimators to suggest that Lorenzen’s 3.58 ERA isn’t quite warranted. Opponents have a modest .264 average on balls in play against him, the 10th lowest mark among starters with 100+ innings. Yet even if a few more batted balls drop in and his ERA ticks up around 4.00 (where estimators generally peg him), he’d be a valuable pickup for a club seeking pitching depth.

Philadelphia has a starting five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. They’ll run with a six-man rotation over the next two weeks, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic. The club doesn’t have an off day until August 14, so they’ll take the opportunity to give the entire group some extra rest.

At that point, the Phils will likely decide whether to kick one of Lorenzen or Sánchez to relief. The latter has stepped up to solidify an uncertain fifth starter spot over the past month. He’s worked to a 2.66 ERA with average or better strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks over nine starts. The depth behind him wasn’t particularly strong, though. Bailey Falter struggled mightily early in the year. Andrew Painter underwent elbow surgery. The Phils have been reluctant to push minor league righties Mick Abel and Griff McGarry into a pennant race too quickly.

As a result, they’ll beat the market for one of the top rental starters still available. Lorenzen is due around $2.79MM in salary through season’s end. The Phils have already exceeded the second tier of luxury tax penalization. They’re going to surpass the CBT for the second straight season. As a result, they’re taxed at a 42% rate on additional spending up to the $273MM third threshold. Roster Resource calculates their current CBT number just above $262MM.

They’ll pay around $1.17MM in taxes to accommodate Lorenzen, bringing their expenditure to around $3.97MM. Lorenzen would also tack on $250K in performance bonus (also taxed at a 42% rate) for reaching 125, 150 and 175 innings (with further incentives available but likely unattainable). Lorenzen will head back to free agency at year’s end, when the Phils will hopefully feel more comfortable breaking Abel and McGarry into MLB action.

As for the Tigers, their signing of Lorenzen worked out as intended. Rebuilding teams take one-year fliers on veterans of this ilk every offseason with an eye towards a midseason trade. Rarely does it work out as effectively as it did for Detroit. Lorenzen was always an unlikely qualifying offer candidate, so they’ll indeed flip him for a prospect of interest.

Lee, 20, is a right-handed hitting second baseman from Taiwan. He has been at High-A Jersey Shore, hitting .283/.372/.401 through 285 plate appearances. Lee is walking at a quality 10.2% clip against a modest 18.6% strikeout rate. He’s only hit five home runs but has stolen 14 bases in 17 tries.

He recently ranked eighth on Baseball America’s ranking of the Phillies’ farm system. As his slash line suggests, BA’s report indicates he’s a hit-over-power player with a shot to stick in the middle infield. Below-average arm strength and range make him a best fit for second base. While the hit-focused second baseman is a tough profile to pull off, Lee’s minor league production is solid. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2025 season.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Tigers and Phillies were nearing a deal that’d send Lorenzen to Philadelphia while getting Lee back as part of the return. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported the deal was agreed upon and would be a one-for-one swap.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks, Tigers Have Discussed Michael Lorenzen

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The Diamondbacks are among the clubs that have contacted the Tigers regarding Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Orioles, Astros, Marlins and Rays have all previously been linked to the Detroit righty — although Tampa Bay has since acquired Aaron Civale to fill their rotation.

Lorenzen is very likely to land somewhere else within the next four hours. He’s an impending free agent on a non-competitive Detroit team who wouldn’t likely receive a qualifying offer. Lorenzen carries a 3.58 ERA across 18 starts. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a touch below average but he’s working with the best control of his career. Lorenzen had been particularly good of late, rattling off three straight scoreless starts before allowing three runs over five innings in his most recent appearance.

Just as he’s a very likely trade candidate, the D-Backs are an obvious fit as a possible suitor. They’re openly pursuing rotation help behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. As an impending free agent, Lorenzen wouldn’t have a major acquisition cost. The Snakes have some talented controllable starters who’ve yet to put things together this season but could be options to take rotation spots next year if Lorenzen signs elsewhere in free agency.

The first-time All-Star is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due around $2.79MM through year’s end. That’s a reasonable sum for a mid-rotation starter, particularly for an Arizona club that is tied for the last playoff spot in the National League.

Dodgers “In Hot Pursuit” Of Eduardo Rodriguez; Padres Interested

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With less than seven hours to go until the trade deadline, the Tigers hold a pair of key starting pitcher cards in southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and righty Michael Lorenzen.  Yesterday morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said the pair would “definitely” be traded, and this morning MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand said the Tigers are “expected to trade” both.

Asking prices appear to be high, according to Feinsand, though we rarely hear asking prices described any other way.  Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the same, after talking to rival executives.

The Dodgers “are in hot pursuit” of Rodriguez, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Jack Harris of the L.A. Times spoke to “multiple people with knowledge of the team’s thinking unauthorized to speak publicly,” and then wrote yesterday that the club’s Plan B after Justin Verlander “could be” a pursuit of Rodriguez.  Harris said the Dodgers “had maintained interest” in E-Rod as of Monday afternoon.  The Dodgers added Lance Lynn to their embattled rotation in a trade with the White Sox a few days ago.

Never a team to sit on the sidelines with good players available – even five games out of the wild card – the Padres are “said to be high” on Rodriguez and “could make a push” for him, reports Feinsand.  The Padres seem to have some level of interest in Verlander as well, according to Heyman.

Rodriguez, 30, owns a 2.95 ERA on the season with a 25.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 40.5% groundball rate.  He missed all of June with a left index finger pulley rupture.  He’s pitched to an unpleasant 5.66 ERA in four starts since returning from the injury, but his peripheral stats were in line with his season marks and two of the four starts were solid.  Though Rodriguez is scheduled to take on the Pirates tomorrow at PNC Park, he may have already made his last start in a Tigers uniform.

Rodriguez is owed about $4.67MM this year and $49MM from 2024-26, but he’s generally viewed as a rental given the likelihood he opts out of those final three years after the season.  While all opt-out clauses represent downside risk for an acquiring team, things would have to go quite badly for E-Rod in the next two months for him to forgo the clause.

The Orioles, who traded Rodriguez to the Red Sox in a significant deadline deal for Andrew Miller nine years ago, are a potential suitor for both Tigers starters.  Last week, Feinsand named a slew of teams that had been scouting Rodriguez.  Some have since acquired a starting pitcher, but others included the Reds, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.  On the topic of the Reds, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic wrote of “whispers Monday” about Cincinnati “being a suitable destination for Rodriguez.”

Lorenzen, 31, is a pure rental with about $2.8MM left on his contract, plus possible $250K performance bonuses for innings benchmarks.  Lorenzen represented the Tigers in the All-Star game, though he’s never been a strikeout pitcher.  He has seemingly turned a corner with some of the best control of his career, though his peripheral stats generally don’t support a 3.58 ERA.  Lorenzen has a 3.96 mark over his last nine starts, and something in that range would likely match a buyer’s expectations.  The Marlins, Orioles, Astros, and Rays have been linked to Lorenzen, but the Rays have since added Aaron Civale.

Orioles, Mets Have Discussed Justin Verlander

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Despite possessing the American League’s best record, the Orioles have had a quiet deadline. They rolled the dice on Shintaro Fujinami’s recent improvements and triple-digit heater, hoping to deepen an already strong bullpen, but the rotation — arguably their top need — has gone unaddressed. The O’s were linked to multiple starters who have since been traded elsewhere, but other targets (e.g. Michael Lorenzen, Rich Hill) remain available. And, Baltimore clearly hasn’t ruled out a much higher-profile addition. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the O’s are “on the periphery” of the Justin Verlander market, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the O’s are among the teams with whom the Mets are actively discussing Verlander. Morosi adds that the Orioles and Tigers are also talking — presumably about Lorenzen and/or Eduardo Rodriguez.

At least on paper, it’s hard to find a better fit for Verlander than the Orioles. Baltimore has the American League’s best record, is as deep in young talent as virtually any team in the game, and has a blank slate when it comes to long-term payroll. Perhaps no contending club could more easily accommodate the remaining $14.444MM on Verlander’s 2023 salary and the $43.333MM he’s owed in 2024. His contract also contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if Verlander throws 140 innings next year. That’s been an understandable hurdle in talks with multiple clubs; Verlander will pitch the 2025 season at age 42.

The only guaranteed contract on Baltimore’s books in 2024 is backup catcher James McCann, and the Mets are picking up all but $2.5MM of next year’s salary as part of the trade that sent him to the Orioles. Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, John Means, Tyler Wells, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle are among the many notable members of the Orioles’ arbitration class, but it’s nonetheless as close to a pristine payroll outlook as you’ll find for a contending club.

Meanwhile, starting pitching has long been reported to be the Orioles’ top need. It’s easy enough to understand why. Good as the team’s overall record is, their rotation’s 4.48 ERA ranks 16th in the Majors. With the exception of veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson, the bulk of the Baltimore staff is approaching or has already exceeded 2023’s innings total. Dean Kremer is just 15 innings shy of last year’s total. Kyle Bradish is 36 innings shy of his own 2023 total. Wells and Grayson Rodriguez have already topped last season’s workloads.

The Mets traded one high-priced, future Hall of Famer over the weekend when they sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers, paid down all but $22.5MM of the salary he was still owed, and acquired top prospect Luisangel Acuna in return. They’re reported to hold Verlander in even higher regard, setting both a higher prospect asking price and showing less willingness to pay down significant money.

The Verlander market is generally thought to be accelerating, and there’s a real chance he’s traded today. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets’ Verlander talks “picked up steam” late last night with multiple clubs. The Astros, according to Martino, have made a formal offer. At least one other team has done the same, and there are two to three more clubs also involved. Jon Heyman of the New York Post dusted off a time-honored trade deadline favorite this morning, tweeting that there’s at least one “mystery team” beyond the previously reported Astros and Dodgers.

That, of course, could be the Orioles, but given Verlander’s status and the league-wide need for starting pitching, it’s only natural to assume others are involved. The Reds, Angels and D-backs have all been rumored to be in the market for varying levels of rotation help as well, and virtually no major name hits the trade market without the Padres throwing their hat into the ring as well. None of those teams has been directly connected to Verlander, to be clear, but the day is young.

Marlins Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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With at least three teams already known to be interested in Tigers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports a fourth, noting that the Marlins are also in the mix.  This tracks with yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that Miami is on the lookout for starting pitching help.

The Marlins landed David Robertson from the Mets on Thursday, bolstering the relief corps for what the Fish hope will be a successful playoff run.  Miami headed into the All-Star break with a 53-39 record and a solid grip on a wild card berth, yet an eight-game losing streak after the break undid a lot of that success.  Now 56-48 after last night’s win over the Tigers, the Marlins are tied with the Giants for the last NL wild card slot, just a half-game behind the Phillies and Reds and a game up on the Diamondbacks.

While facing Detroit for this three-game series, the Marlins might also come away with one of their best starters.  Lorenzen has a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings this season, aided by a solid 6.5% walk rate and a fastball with outstanding spin rate, if relatively average in velocity (94.3mph).  Lorenzen’s .264 BABIP and his below-average 19.9% strikeout rate are factors in his higher 4.45 SIERA, but it is worth noting that he has been particularly sharp over his last four starts.  The righty has a 1.14 ERA over 23 2/3 innings during those four outings, putting on a nice showcase for rival scouts.

A four-game losing streak has all but erased whatever small hope the Tigers have of making a late run in the AL Central, as Detroit is now 46-58 and 7.5 games out of first place.  Besides Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chasen Shreve, and Jose Cisnero have also been targets for other teams, and all four of these players will be free agents after the season (Rodriguez has an opt-out clause in his contract that he is expected to exercise).

Between Lorenzen’s rental status and the relatively inexpensive $3MM still owed to him in 2023 salary, he makes an attractive pickup option for just about any contender, particularly a Marlins team that is willing to spend but probably unlikely to truly splurge.  Miami took on approximately $3.55MM in Robertson’s remaining salary, but the team’s overall payroll still sits below the $106.5MM threshold.

Orioles Interested In Michael Lorenzen

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The Orioles are among the teams eyeing Tigers’ starter Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They join the Astros and Rays as clubs reportedly in the mix for the Detroit righty.

Just as Lorenzen is a sensible target for Houston and Tampa Bay, the fit for Baltimore is straightforward. Lorenzen seems highly likely to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. He’s an impending free agent on a Detroit club that fell 11 games below .500 upon getting swept in a doubleheader against the Angels today.

The first-time All-Star is having arguably the best season of his career. It’s his second straight season as a full-time starter. After posting league average numbers in 18 starts for the Angels last year, the 31-year-old has been a mid-rotation caliber arm this season. Even following a five-inning, three-run performance against the Halos this afternoon, he carries a 3.58 ERA across 105 2/3 frames.

Lorenzen’s underlying marks aren’t quite that strong, largely because he’s not missing a ton of bats. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, while his 42.5% grounder percentage is right around par. The nine-year MLB veteran has walked only 6.5% of opponents, though, a notable improvement on last year’s 10.7% figure. He’s mixing five pitches with some amount of regularity and hasn’t had any platoon concerns.

That production makes him a logical target for win-now teams seeking rotation help. The Orioles certainly qualify. Baltimore  has the best record in the American League at 62-40. They’re up a game and a half (three in the loss column) on Tampa Bay for the AL East lead. The rebuild is over, and while there’s still some question about how aggressively the O’s will push chips in, they could make a competitive offer for Lorenzen without subtracting from the top of the farm system.

Detroit signed Lorenzen to an $8.5MM free agent deal. Just over $3MM of that salary is yet to be paid out. Lorenzen has already locked in an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.

That’s a modest price to pay for a mid-rotation arm who’d likely step into the projected playoff rotation. Baltimore’s starting staff is its relative weak point. The O’s have an excellent offense and elite relief corps but rank 17th in MLB with a 4.52 rotation ERA.

Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells each have a sub-4.00 mark with slightly above-average strikeout/walk profiles. Kyle Gibson has offered his typically steady back-of-the-rotation innings. Dean Kremer has been a bit homer-prone en route to a fine but unexciting 4.59 ERA in 21 starts. Offseason trade pickup Cole Irvin has struggled and bounced in and out of the rotation, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has an ERA pushing 7.00 through his first 12 big league outings.

Astros, Rays Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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Michael Lorenzen is one of the top rental starting pitchers who could move between now and the August 1 trade deadline. The Rays and Astros are among the contending clubs that have shown interest in the Tigers’ righty, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

It stands to reason Tampa Bay and Houston are just two of a number of teams monitoring the market for the Detroit hurler. Lorenzen is having a strong season, working to a 3.49 ERA through 17 starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a win over the Royals this afternoon and hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past three appearances.

Lorenzen began the season on the injured list after straining his groin in Spring Training. Since returning in the middle of April, he’s been a quality starter for Detroit. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 17 outings. While his 19.1% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, he has kept his walks to a modest 6.5% clip. Lorenzen has negligible platoon splits and mixes four pitches with regularity.

While it’s not the most overpowering profile, the first-time All-Star looks a solid mid-rotation arm for contenders. Tampa Bay and Houston have both made clear they’re surveying the rotation market. The Rays have limited depth behind the front four of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley. They’ve lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs for the season and been without southpaw Josh Fleming for an extended stretch.

Tampa Bay has been tied to a number of rental starters. Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Marcus Stroman (the latter of whom has a $21MM player option for next season) are all reportedly on Tampa Bay’s radar.  The Rays seem to be casting a wide net as they look to solidify their final rotation spot in their battle for the AL East title.

It’s a similar story in Houston. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the whole season after recurring forearm issues. José Urquidy has been out since the end of April with shoulder discomfort, though he’s on a rehab stint and expected back soon.

As with the Rays, the Astros have a quality top of the rotation. Framber Valdez headlines a group that also includes Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Javier has scuffled of late, which the team has attributed to some fatigue, while Brown is already at 99 1/3 innings after tossing 130 frames last year between the regular season and playoffs. J.P. France and Ronel Blanco have held down the last two spots. Houston general manager Dana Brown has publicly discussed his desire for another arm. The Astros have also been tied to Stroman.

Lorenzen could fit on virtually any contender. He’s playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. Around $2.79MM will remain to be paid out from the deadline onward. Lorenzen tacked on an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark today and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.

If he stays healthy, he’s likely to at least get to the 150-175 inning range. Still, the tab for an acquiring team would only be around $3MM. That’s a reasonable figure for mid-rotation production for the stretch run and into the playoffs.

While that all makes Lorenzen a sensible trade target, it’s not a foregone conclusion Detroit sells. Despite being eight games under .500 with a -77 run differential, the Tigers are only five games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central.

It’s tough to see this Detroit club making a playoff push — only Oakland and Kansas City have scored fewer runs on the season — but the bleakness of the division leaves the door slightly ajar. President of baseball operations Scott Harris implied last week the team could play well enough to avoid a deadline sell-off, although they could strike a middle ground by dealing Lorenzen while holding onto players who are controllable beyond 2023.

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