The Top Unsigned Starting Pitchers
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the top catchers, first basemen, third basemen, shortstops and center fielders still available. Here’s a rundown of the top starting pitchers who’ve yet to sign.
Top-of-the-Market Arms
- Blake Snell: The two-time Cy Young Award winner has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $200MM or more. The Yankees are said to have offered Snell something in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term, but it’s understandable if Snell and agent Scott Boras are aiming higher coming off the lefty’s NL Cy Young win. The Yankees gave a larger contract to Carlos Rodon last offseason despite a shorter track record. Snell’s shaky command has been a talking point throughout his free agency, but an elevated 13.3% walk rate didn’t hinder him much in 2023 when he pitched 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball and whiffed 31.5% of his opponents. Snell made the easy call to reject a qualifying offer. He’ll eventually land a nine-figure contract, in all likelihood. Beyond the Yankees, he’s been connected to the Giants, Angels and Blue Jays.
- Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery’s climb from Tommy John rehab to bona fide playoff starter was steady and arguably under the radar — at least until last year’s postseason heroics. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and started 30-plus games in each of his three full seasons back from Tommy John surgery, steadily adding more innings each season. Taken in total, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball since Opening Day 2021, highlighted by a career-best 3.20 earned run average in a career-high 188 2/3 frames in 2023. Add in the 33 2/3 postseason innings of 2.67 ERA he’s chipped in, and the profile looks even better. Montgomery isn’t a flamethrower but is a durable arm with average strikeout and ground-ball rates, strong command and a repeated ability to manage hard contact. The Rangers want him back but are facing some financial questions regarding their television broadcast outlook. Other teams to which Montgomery has been tied include the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.
Solid Innings
- Mike Clevinger: Fans who remember Clevinger’s peak days in Cleveland probably value him more than the current market does. The now-33-year-old righty had a brief but excellent peak in 2017-20 when he tossed 489 1/3 innings and logged a 2.96 ERA. Clevinger missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, however, and had a pedestrian 2022 campaign in San Diego. Last year’s 3.77 ERA in 131 1/3 innings with the White Sox was a step forward, but since returning from surgery Clevinger touts a lackluster 19.4% strikeout rate. His velocity is down a mile per hour from its peak, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever — as well as more fly-balls than ever. Clevinger made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings in 2018. He’s never reached 25 starts in another season. He can improve the back of most teams’ rotations, but counting on him for more than 120 innings is tough.
- Michael Lorenzen: A big first half with the Tigers and a memorable no-hitter in his second start following a trade to the Phillies looked to have positioned Lorenzen for a sizable contract this winter. Things went south in a hurry following that no-hitter for the 32-year-old righty, however. Lorenzen hadn’t topped 100 innings since his rookie season and looked to hit a wall following that hitless gem. He allowed 23 runs in 26 innings over his next five starts, was dropped to the bullpen and immediately tagged for four runs in one-third of an inning. Lorenzen pitched 30 1/3 innings following the no-no and yielded an 8.01 ERA. Even prior to his slowdown, Lorenzen was sporting a well below-average strikeout rate. With last year’s 153-inning performance and 4.18 ERA fresh in mind, he’s a candidate to serve as a fourth starter somewhere.
- Hyun Jin Ryu: Many of the numbers for Ryu in his return from Tommy John surgery last year looked good: a 3.46 ERA, a 6.3% walk rate, a 45.6% ground-ball rate. Ryu, however, fanned only 17% of his opponents — a far cry from his 27.5% peak. He also managed only 52 innings in 11 starts — an average of about 4 2/3 frames per outing. Ryu only recorded an out after the fifth inning one time in 2023, and he had only 33 plate appearances in which he was facing his opponent for the third time in a game. His 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low. Ryu can still help a rotation, but it’ll be hard to treat him like more than a pure five-inning pitcher, given last year’s usage.
Injury Cases
- Clayton Kershaw: In early November, Kershaw announced that he’d undergone surgery “to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule” in his left shoulder. If that sounds ominous, it is. He’s expected to be sidelined into the summer of 2024 at the very least. Kershaw was also a free agent last offseason, and the prevailing wisdom was that he’d re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers, whose stadium is just a few miles from Kershaw’s offseason home. The Dodgers have said they want Kershaw back, but all parties are taking their time as he mends from that surgery. Once he’s ready to make a decision, it seems like it’ll come down to L.A. and Texas once again.
- Brandon Woodruff: The longtime Brewers co-ace was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline late into the 2024 season. Woodruff would’ve been a free agent following the 2024 campaign anyhow, and the Brewers were understandably wary about paying him a projected $11.6MM in arbitration when he can’t even be considered a lock to pitch this year. Woodruff is a candidate to sign a high-priced two-year deal that’d allow him to spend the bulk of the 2024 campaign rehabbing. In an ideal scenario, he’d return late in the year to get some innings in before stepping back into a full rotation role in 2025. He fits best with a deep-pocketed team willing to take a chance on his 2025 season and capable of absorbing the financial hit if he can’t return to form. From 2018-23, Woodruff pitched 637 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate.
Former Dodgers hurlers Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias are both unsigned but could be long shots to return to MLB. No team signed Bauer last offseason after his record suspension under the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy was lifted; he’d been given a 324-game ban after sexual assault allegations arose, but that ban was reduced to 194 games after an appeal. The Los Angeles district attorney’s office declined to pursue criminal charges but did not proclaim Bauer innocent; rather, the DA’s office stated that proving the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt” was not feasible. Bauer signed with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and made 19 starts for their big league club, totaling 130 2/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA.
Urias, meanwhile, is currently under investigation after the DA declined to pursue felony charges following abuse allegations against the pitcher. He was referred for misdemeanor consideration, and the case is ongoing. Urias was allegedly captured on video in a physical altercation with a woman following an LAFC Major League Soccer match back in September. MLB has yet to conduct its own investigation while waiting for the legal process to play out. He finished the season on paid administrative leave. If the league eventually brings forth a suspension, Urias would become the first player to ever be suspended twice under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.
Orioles Have Shown Interest In Michael Lorenzen
The Orioles have been connected to various starting pitching targets all winter and that search is ongoing. General manager Mike Elias said so himself today, telling reporters such as Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Elias hasn’t ruled out a free agent addition but says the club’s farm system makes a trade more likely. In terms of free agent pursuits, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists Michael Lorenzen as one they have shown interest in.
Pitching is a clear target area of the club’s roster. They are loaded with position players but the rotation is lacking in certainty. Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty each became free agents after last season and have since signed elsewhere.
Both Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez finished the year strong, but the former has less than two years of big league experience and the latter less than one. John Means will be in the mix but he hasn’t pitched much over the past two years due to Tommy John surgery. Dean Kremer should be in the back end somewhere after posting a 4.12 earned run average last year. Cole Irvin could be a factor but he struggled last year, getting moved to the bullpen and the minors throughout the year. Guys like Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann or Cade Povich could factor in as well. Elias also said that DL Hall is still viewed as a starter in the long term, per Kostka, but may remain in the bullpen for the short term.
For a club that just won 101 games and is looking to compete again this year, there’s clearly room for upgrades there. They should have the ability to make any kind of move they want, due to their payroll and organizational situations. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal since signing Alex Cobb in 2018. That means their future ledger is wide open and their 2024 payroll is only at $81MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure but still bottom three in the league for this year, ahead of only the Athletics and Pirates.
They also have a stacked farm system, considered by many to be the strongest in the league. With that combination of an elite farm system and a clean payroll slate, the options are theoretically endless. Throughout the winter, they have been connected to all sorts of arms. That includes one of the top free agents in Aaron Nola, though he subsequently re-signed with the Phillies. It also includes the lower tiers of free agency, with guys like James Paxton and Domingo Germán having been connected to the O’s, though Paxton is now reportedly in agreement with the Dodgers. The Orioles have also been interested in trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes.
Despite all of that interest, they have yet to pull the trigger on any move to address their rotation, with pitchers and catchers set to report to Spring Training in less than three weeks. Elias continues to insist that a trade is a likely path forward, though it remains to be seen if they can get anything done. The asking price on Cease is reportedly very high, with the White Sox asking for multiple top prospects. The possibility of the Brewers trading Burnes has seemingly faded as the offseason has progressed.
On the free agent side of things, Lorenzen is apparently another name they have considered. The 32-year-old spent much of his career as a reliever with the Reds but has been pursuing a return to starting work since reaching free agency. He signed with the Angels in 2022 and was able to make 18 starts and log 97 2/3 innings. His 4.24 ERA was passable in that time. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate were a bit worse than average, but his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong.
That wasn’t astounding production but a step in the right director in terms of workload. In 2023, he seemed to take another step forward after signing with the Tigers. Through midseason, he had already made 18 starts and thrown 105 2/3 innings. He had dropped his ERA to 3.58 and lowered his walk rate to 6.5%. He was traded to the Phillies and kept the good times rolling for a while. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings in his first start as a Phillie and then threw a no-hitter in his second.
From that point, things went off the rails. Lorenzen was shelled for 27 earned runs in his final 30 1/3 innings, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process. It’s fair to wonder if he simply ran out of gas. After years of working out of the bullpen, he pushed himself to almost 100 innings in 2022. After the no-hitter, which took him 124 pitches, he was at 122 2/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.23 ERA. The rough finish added almost a full run to his ERA, pushing it to 4.18 for the year overall.
Arguably, another year of pushing himself in terms of innings could lessen the late-season drop-off. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lorenzen for a two-year, $22MM deal. His market has been fairly quiet this winter but he reportedly held a showcase for interested clubs earlier this week.
Elsewhere in Oriole news, manager Brandon Hyde says that righty Dillon Tate is healthy and looked “unbelievable” recently, per Kostka. Tate didn’t pitch in the majors in 2023, as he was diagnosed with a forearm/flexor strain in November of 2022 and wasn’t able to get healthy last year. He went on multiple rehab assignments but was never returned to the big leagues. When he was last healthy, he threw 73 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2022 with a 3.05 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 57.4% ground ball rate. If he is back in good form, it could be a boon for the bullpen.
Pirates Showing Interest In Noah Syndergaard
The Pirates are among multiple teams that have expressed interest in free agent righty Noah Syndergaard, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. According to Murray, both Syndergaard and right-hander Michael Lorenzen threw a bullpen session in front of teams today.
While it’s unclear which teams are involved in Lorenzen’s market, Pittsburgh is apparently considering Syndergaard as a rebound target. He’ll certainly settle for a one-year contract for a third straight offseason. After locking in a $21MM guarantee from the Angels in 2021-22 and a $13MM pact from the Dodgers last winter, he’s looking at a cheaper deal this time around.
That’s a reflection of Syndergaard’s trouble finding his form since he returned from Tommy John surgery. He underwent the elbow procedure in March 2020, essentially wiping out two seasons. During his first year back, he turned in a 3.94 ERA over 25 appearances for the Halos. While that’s decent run prevention, the righty wasn’t nearly as overpowering as he’d been before the surgery. He fanned just 16.8% of opposing hitters, nearly eight percentage points below his 2019 mark.
The Dodgers hoped that Syndergaard would rediscover that level in his second year after surgery. Instead, the lack of missed bats caught up to him. He was tagged for a 7.16 ERA over 12 starts in Los Angeles. The Dodgers placed him on the injured list and flipped him to the Guardians in a change-of-scenery swap that sent infielder Amed Rosario to Southern California.
Things didn’t get much better in Cleveland. Syndergaard returned from the IL to start six games. He pitched to a 5.40 ERA while allowing 10 home runs in 33 1/3 innings. The Guardians released him at the end of August. He didn’t sign elsewhere and finished his year with a 6.50 ERA across 88 2/3 frames. His 14.3% strikeout percentage and 8.2% swinging strike rate were each personal lows, while he allowed a career-worst 2.23 home runs per nine innings. Once one of the sport’s hardest throwers, the righty has lost a lot of velocity in recent seasons. His fastball was down around 92 MPH on average last year.
Syndergaard is still just 31 years old, so it stands to reason some clubs have optimism about helping him rediscover some of that lost arm speed. He has excellent control and has walked fewer than 6% of opposing hitters in each of the past two seasons. If he can even find the 93-94 MPH he brandished in 2022, he’d be a potential back-of-the-rotation starter.
The Pirates would benefit from that kind of production. Pittsburgh’s rotation is led by Mitch Keller. They’ve already targeted Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales as rebound fliers, while players like Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras and Quinn Priester could vie for back-end jobs.
Pittsburgh’s signing of Aroldis Chapman pushes their projected player payroll to roughly $79MM, above last year’s $73MM Opening Day figure. It’s unclear how much budgetary room remains at the front office’s disposal.
Free Agent Profile: Michael Lorenzen
The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.
On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.
While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.
In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.
Braves, Phillies Announce NLDS Rosters; Kyle Wright Placed On 60-Day Injured List
With Game 1 just hours away, the Phillies and Braves announced the rosters for the NL Division Series. The announcements come with some notable transactions, as Atlanta has placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain. In other moves, Max Fried was activated from the 15-day injured list as expected, and rookie Daysbel Hernandez was also activated from the 60-day IL and included on the NLDS roster.
The news brings a disappointing season to an end for Wright, as shoulder problems limited him to only 31 innings and 6.97 ERA. After returning from the 60-day IL in September, Wright was hit hard in two starts before being moved into a multi-inning relief role, which would likely have been his role on a playoff roster. With Charlie Morton‘s finger injury keeping him off the NLDS roster, the speculated plan was for the Braves to use Bryce Elder as the Game 3 starter and perhaps Wright as either a piggyback starter or more of a true reliever. AJ Smith-Shawver made the NLDS roster and now looks to likely step into that secondary starter role for Game 3.
Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported some of the Braves’ roster plans yesterday, including the somewhat surprising inclusion of Hernandez. The righty made his Major League debut on July 23, and threw 3 2/3 innings over four appearances before being sidelined due to forearm inflammation. Eventually moved to the 60-day injured list in September, Hernandez could now make his return in the postseason spotlight.
An international signing out of Cuba in 2017, Hernandez just turned 27 last month, and he has a history of missing bats in the minor leagues. With a 3.03 ERA over 157 2/3 innings in Atlanta’s farm system, Hernandez has a very impressive 30.35% strikeout rate, and his high-90s fastball could be an intriguing secret weapon for the Braves in the playoffs. However, it is possible the Phillies might benefit if Hernandez can’t harness his pitches, as he has a 12.44% walk rate during his minor league career.
Philadelphia will return 25 of the players from the group who defeated the Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series. The one change is Michael Lorenzen, as the Phillies will add an extra pitcher and remove a position player in Weston Wilson. Lorenzen posted a 5.51 ERA over 47 1/3 innings and 11 appearances after being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadlne, and the last four of those outings came out of the bullpen due to Lorenzen’s struggles. Barring an emergency, Lorenzen will continue to work as a reliever during the NLDS.
There are three off-days during the series, so the unusual scheduling allows for extra rest for the top-choice starters. Ranger Suarez and Spencer Strider are today’s scheduled starter, Fried and Zack Wheeler are slated to face off in Monday’s Game 2, and Aaron Nola takes the hill for Philadelphia in Game 3 against a Braves starter TBD (likely Elder). Suarez and Strider figure to return in a potential Game 4, and then a Wheeler/Fried rematch awaits in a possible Game 5.
The full rosters…
Phillies
- Right-handed pitchers: Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler
- Left-handed pitchers: José Alvarado, Cristopher Sánchez, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, Ranger Suárez.
- Catchers: J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
- Infielders: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Edmundo Sosa, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner
- Outfielders: Nick Castellanos, Jake Cave, Brandon Marsh, Cristian Pache, Johan Rojas, Kyle Schwarber
Braves
- Right-handed pitchers: Bryce Elder, Daysbel Hernandez, Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Strider, Michael Tonkin, Kirby Yates
- Left-handed pitchers: Max Fried, Brad Hand, A.J. Minter
- Catchers: Travis d’Arnaud, Sean Murphy
- Infielders: Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Vaughn Grissom, Nicky Lopez, Matt Olson, Austin Riley
- Outfielders: Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna, Kevin Pillar, Eddie Rosario, Forrest Wall
Phillies Weighing Bullpen Role For Michael Lorenzen
The Phillies could deploy Michael Lorenzen out of the bullpen down the stretch, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that the Phils had yet to make a final decision but suggested they were likely to move back to a five-man rotation after today’s off day.
Philadelphia’s front four is locked in. They’ll go with Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Zack Wheeler over their next few appearances. If they go back to a five-man staff, they’ll need to decide between Cristopher Sánchez or Lorenzen for next Tuesday’s start in Atlanta.
Sánchez has been the more effective for the Phils. The 26-year-old southpaw owns a 3.40 ERA over 87 1/3 innings on the season. After striking out 10 Braves hitters in 7 1/3 frames last night, he has a quality 23.6% strikeout percentage to go with a huge 56.4% grounder rate. He has demonstrated excellent control, cutting his walk rate below the 4% mark.
Lorenzen hasn’t found the same level of success overall in Philadelphia. He started his tenure brilliantly, rattling off eight innings of two-run ball during his team debut in Miami and no-hitting the Nationals at home in his second start. Things have spiraled in the few weeks since that historic outing. Lorenzen has allowed four-plus runs in each of his last five appearances, topping out at six innings. Since the no-hitter, he has a 7.96 ERA with a minuscule 11% strikeout rate.
The 31-year-old’s overall production is still solid. Including his strong first half with the Tigers, he owned a 3.23 ERA across 122 2/3 innings a month ago. Even after the rough few weeks, he’s allowing 4.06 earned runs per nine altogether. Yet he’s also in uncharted territory from a workload perspective, with his 148 2/3 frames easily topping his previous career high of 113 1/3 innings as a rookie back in 2015.
Lorenzen had worked almost exclusively out of relief for the Reds from his second season onward. Upon reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason, he prioritized a rotation spot and signed a one-year pact with the Angels. He logged 97 2/3 innings a season ago, with injuries capping him at 18 starts. That was still a heavier load than he’d shouldered during his time in the bullpen but fell shy of a typical starter’s capacity.
The righty hasn’t shown obvious signs of physical decline. His velocity this month is in line with his early-season level. The results have fallen off sharply, though, perhaps reflecting a more subtle dip in Lorenzen’s execution.
Gelb suggests the Phils have given some thought to deploying Sánchez and Lorenzen as a tandem duo in the fifth starter’s spot. That’d allow them to keep an eye on the workload for each, though it’s arguable they’d be better served acting more definitively. Both pitchers have handled themselves well when turning a lineup over, so there’s not a pressing need to mitigate either’s ‘times through the order’ splits. They each have experience working as relievers, with Lorenzen particularly familiar with a high-leverage short relief role from his time in Cincinnati.
The Phils occupy the top Wild Card spot in the National League and are in strong position to secure a playoff spot. Both Sánchez and Lorenzen would likely play relief roles in October, at least in the opening three-game Wild Card series. They’ll conclude the regular season with 16 games in 17 days, starting tomorrow.
Lorenzen is headed back to free agency in the offseason. Even if he’s kicked to the bullpen for the last couple weeks, he’s in position for a much stronger pact than the $8.5MM guarantee he received from Detroit a year ago. He’s going into his age-32 campaign and could find three- or four-year offers this time around.
Phillies Designate Andrew Vasquez, Release Josh Harrison
The Phillies announced a series of roster moves today, adding infielder Rodolfo Castro and right-hander Michael Lorenzen to the roster, both of whom were acquired in trades yesterday. To open one roster spot, Josh Harrison was designated for assignment, as reported yesterday. He has now been released. The other spot was opened by left-hander Andrew Vasquez being designated for assignment.
Vasquez, 29, came to the Phillies in the offseason when they claimed him off waivers from the Giants. He is out of options but has managed to stick on the active roster for the entire season up until now. He’s tossed 39 2/3 innings over 30 appearances with a 2.27 ERA.
On the surface, that makes it somewhat surprising that he’s now lost his roster spot, but the numbers under the hood aren’t quite as impressive. His 8.2% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate are pretty close to league average, but his 20% strikeout rate is a few ticks below. He’s benefitted from a .274 batting average on balls in play and 86.8% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side, leading to a 4.31 FIP and 4.29 SIERA.
The Phillies were apparently expecting some regression and have bumped him off the roster. Since he’s out of options and the trade deadline has passed, that left them little choice but to designate him for assignment and try to pass him through waivers. In the event he clears, he will have the right to elect free agency since he has a previous career outright. Despite his out-of-options status, he could garner interest from a club with more ability to keep him on the active roster. He has a career 3.60 ERA in 52 appearances and comes with five seasons of control beyond the current campaign.
As for Harrison, he’s making a $2MM salary this year and has played poorly, hitting just .204/.263/.291. He wasn’t going to be claimed off waivers and has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining all of his salary. That means his return to the open market was inevitable and the Phils have simply skipped the formalities. He’ll be free to sign with the other 29 clubs for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Phillies pay.
Phillies To Acquire Michael Lorenzen
The Phillies are reportedly acquiring Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers. Infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee is headed back to Detroit.
Lorenzen has seemed a near-lock to be traded for a few months. The right-hander has found plenty of success in his second season since moving back to the rotation. After posting a 4.24 ERA through 18 appearances for the Angels last year, he’s allowing 3.58 earned runs per nine in as many outings this time around.
Signed to a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal last winter, Lorenzen began his Detroit tenure on the injured list. A groin strain cost him the first two weeks of the season, but he was on the Comerica Park mound by mid-April. He was hit hard in two of his first three outings but settled in nicely thereafter.
Lorenzen has worked 105 2/3 innings, just under six frames per start. He’s not blowing hitters away; his 19.9% strikeout rate and 9.8% swinging strike percentage are each a little lower than the respective MLB averages. Lorenzen has shown much improved control, though, keeping his walk rate at a modest 6.5% clip after handing out free passes north of 10% of the time in each of the previous three seasons.
All told, Lorenzen has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 18 outings. He secured his first All-Star nod as a result. He’s been effective against hitters of either handedness, holding lefties to a .201/.279/.355 line and right-handers to a .274/.293/.381 slash. He’s mixing four pitchers (four-seam, slider, changeup and sinker) with regularity.
The middling whiff rates lead ERA estimators to suggest that Lorenzen’s 3.58 ERA isn’t quite warranted. Opponents have a modest .264 average on balls in play against him, the 10th lowest mark among starters with 100+ innings. Yet even if a few more batted balls drop in and his ERA ticks up around 4.00 (where estimators generally peg him), he’d be a valuable pickup for a club seeking pitching depth.
Philadelphia has a starting five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. They’ll run with a six-man rotation over the next two weeks, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic. The club doesn’t have an off day until August 14, so they’ll take the opportunity to give the entire group some extra rest.
At that point, the Phils will likely decide whether to kick one of Lorenzen or Sánchez to relief. The latter has stepped up to solidify an uncertain fifth starter spot over the past month. He’s worked to a 2.66 ERA with average or better strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks over nine starts. The depth behind him wasn’t particularly strong, though. Bailey Falter struggled mightily early in the year. Andrew Painter underwent elbow surgery. The Phils have been reluctant to push minor league righties Mick Abel and Griff McGarry into a pennant race too quickly.
As a result, they’ll beat the market for one of the top rental starters still available. Lorenzen is due around $2.79MM in salary through season’s end. The Phils have already exceeded the second tier of luxury tax penalization. They’re going to surpass the CBT for the second straight season. As a result, they’re taxed at a 42% rate on additional spending up to the $273MM third threshold. Roster Resource calculates their current CBT number just above $262MM.
They’ll pay around $1.17MM in taxes to accommodate Lorenzen, bringing their expenditure to around $3.97MM. Lorenzen would also tack on $250K in performance bonus (also taxed at a 42% rate) for reaching 125, 150 and 175 innings (with further incentives available but likely unattainable). Lorenzen will head back to free agency at year’s end, when the Phils will hopefully feel more comfortable breaking Abel and McGarry into MLB action.
As for the Tigers, their signing of Lorenzen worked out as intended. Rebuilding teams take one-year fliers on veterans of this ilk every offseason with an eye towards a midseason trade. Rarely does it work out as effectively as it did for Detroit. Lorenzen was always an unlikely qualifying offer candidate, so they’ll indeed flip him for a prospect of interest.
Lee, 20, is a right-handed hitting second baseman from Taiwan. He has been at High-A Jersey Shore, hitting .283/.372/.401 through 285 plate appearances. Lee is walking at a quality 10.2% clip against a modest 18.6% strikeout rate. He’s only hit five home runs but has stolen 14 bases in 17 tries.
He recently ranked eighth on Baseball America’s ranking of the Phillies’ farm system. As his slash line suggests, BA’s report indicates he’s a hit-over-power player with a shot to stick in the middle infield. Below-average arm strength and range make him a best fit for second base. While the hit-focused second baseman is a tough profile to pull off, Lee’s minor league production is solid. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2025 season.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Tigers and Phillies were nearing a deal that’d send Lorenzen to Philadelphia while getting Lee back as part of the return. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported the deal was agreed upon and would be a one-for-one swap.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Diamondbacks, Tigers Have Discussed Michael Lorenzen
The Diamondbacks are among the clubs that have contacted the Tigers regarding Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Orioles, Astros, Marlins and Rays have all previously been linked to the Detroit righty — although Tampa Bay has since acquired Aaron Civale to fill their rotation.
Lorenzen is very likely to land somewhere else within the next four hours. He’s an impending free agent on a non-competitive Detroit team who wouldn’t likely receive a qualifying offer. Lorenzen carries a 3.58 ERA across 18 starts. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a touch below average but he’s working with the best control of his career. Lorenzen had been particularly good of late, rattling off three straight scoreless starts before allowing three runs over five innings in his most recent appearance.
Just as he’s a very likely trade candidate, the D-Backs are an obvious fit as a possible suitor. They’re openly pursuing rotation help behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. As an impending free agent, Lorenzen wouldn’t have a major acquisition cost. The Snakes have some talented controllable starters who’ve yet to put things together this season but could be options to take rotation spots next year if Lorenzen signs elsewhere in free agency.
The first-time All-Star is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due around $2.79MM through year’s end. That’s a reasonable sum for a mid-rotation starter, particularly for an Arizona club that is tied for the last playoff spot in the National League.
Dodgers “In Hot Pursuit” Of Eduardo Rodriguez; Padres Interested
With less than seven hours to go until the trade deadline, the Tigers hold a pair of key starting pitcher cards in southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and righty Michael Lorenzen. Yesterday morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said the pair would “definitely” be traded, and this morning MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand said the Tigers are “expected to trade” both.
Asking prices appear to be high, according to Feinsand, though we rarely hear asking prices described any other way. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the same, after talking to rival executives.
The Dodgers “are in hot pursuit” of Rodriguez, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Jack Harris of the L.A. Times spoke to “multiple people with knowledge of the team’s thinking unauthorized to speak publicly,” and then wrote yesterday that the club’s Plan B after Justin Verlander “could be” a pursuit of Rodriguez. Harris said the Dodgers “had maintained interest” in E-Rod as of Monday afternoon. The Dodgers added Lance Lynn to their embattled rotation in a trade with the White Sox a few days ago.
Never a team to sit on the sidelines with good players available – even five games out of the wild card – the Padres are “said to be high” on Rodriguez and “could make a push” for him, reports Feinsand. The Padres seem to have some level of interest in Verlander as well, according to Heyman.
Rodriguez, 30, owns a 2.95 ERA on the season with a 25.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 40.5% groundball rate. He missed all of June with a left index finger pulley rupture. He’s pitched to an unpleasant 5.66 ERA in four starts since returning from the injury, but his peripheral stats were in line with his season marks and two of the four starts were solid. Though Rodriguez is scheduled to take on the Pirates tomorrow at PNC Park, he may have already made his last start in a Tigers uniform.
Rodriguez is owed about $4.67MM this year and $49MM from 2024-26, but he’s generally viewed as a rental given the likelihood he opts out of those final three years after the season. While all opt-out clauses represent downside risk for an acquiring team, things would have to go quite badly for E-Rod in the next two months for him to forgo the clause.
The Orioles, who traded Rodriguez to the Red Sox in a significant deadline deal for Andrew Miller nine years ago, are a potential suitor for both Tigers starters. Last week, Feinsand named a slew of teams that had been scouting Rodriguez. Some have since acquired a starting pitcher, but others included the Reds, Phillies, and Diamondbacks. On the topic of the Reds, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic wrote of “whispers Monday” about Cincinnati “being a suitable destination for Rodriguez.”
Lorenzen, 31, is a pure rental with about $2.8MM left on his contract, plus possible $250K performance bonuses for innings benchmarks. Lorenzen represented the Tigers in the All-Star game, though he’s never been a strikeout pitcher. He has seemingly turned a corner with some of the best control of his career, though his peripheral stats generally don’t support a 3.58 ERA. Lorenzen has a 3.96 mark over his last nine starts, and something in that range would likely match a buyer’s expectations. The Marlins, Orioles, Astros, and Rays have been linked to Lorenzen, but the Rays have since added Aaron Civale.