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Pete Alonso

Mets Notes: Pederson, Alonso, Third Base, Rotation

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The Mets have already added one of the best left-handed hitters in the game this offseason, signing Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765MM deal. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests they were recently in on another big lefty bat: Joc Pederson. That was, of course, before Pederson agreed to a two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers early on Monday morning.

Presumably, the Mets were interested in Pederson as a designated hitter. Coming off an excellent 2024 campaign, he would have made a strong replacement for J.D. Martinez. Like Pederson, Martinez became a free agent at the end of the season. If the Mets are still in the market for a DH after losing out on Pederson, their options are somewhat limited. Martinez might be the best true DH left in free agency. They could, of course, pursue an outfielder like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández, but those two are looking for significantly more money than Pederson, and, presumably, they would prefer to continue playing the outfield.

However, if it’s really just another big bat the Mets are looking for, the best solution could also be the most straightforward: re-signing first baseman Pete Alonso. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Sunday that the Mets are still “pushing hard” to re-sign their homegrown slugger. If that’s true, it’s difficult to imagine Alonso ending up anywhere else. Teams like the Yankees and Astros have already filled their holes at first base. And when the Mets set their sights on a target, they’re not easy to outbid.

Nightengale also notes that the Mets “like their internal options” at third base – in other words, he implies they aren’t likely suitors for star third baseman Alex Bregman. However, it’s not clear if that is at all contingent on the team re-signing Alonso. If Alonso is back in Queens next season, Mark Vientos is the obvious candidate to play third base. Vientos was one of the team’s best hitters in 2024, while also providing capable defense at the hot corner. Yet, if Alonso signs elsewhere, Vientos is likely to move across the diamond and take over at first. Simply put, there is a massive difference between Vientos and the next-best option at third base, which seems to be former top prospect and unproven big leaguer Brett Baty. The other internal options include Ronny Mauricio, who spent the entire 2024 season on the IL, and Luisangel Acuña, a second baseman/shortstop who has never played third base professionally. It’s hard to believe the Mets would feel confident going into the season without a more reliable player at third base.

It’s easier to accept the notion that the Mets are done adding to their rotation, which Will Sammon of The Athletic suggests is the case. After agreeing to a three-year, $75MM deal with Sean Manaea, the Mets have now signed three notable free agent starters: Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes. Those three will join Kodai Senga and David Peterson in the rotation, with Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill offering additional depth. Top prospect Brandon Sproat is another arm who could start for the Mets at some point in 2025.

With Senga and Manaea occupying the top two spots in the rotation, the Mets don’t have a bona fide ace like Zack Wheeler of the Phillies or Chris Sale of the Braves. However, their starting pitching depth looks like it’s going to be an asset. They would surely find room for Roki Sasaki if the NPB superstar chooses to sign in Queens, but otherwise, the Mets seem to have all the starters they can carry to begin the 2025 campaign.

Where Will Pete Alonso End Up?

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There is no doubt this year’s free agent market has moved slower for position players than it has for pitchers. While 17 pitchers have signed deals worth at least $5MM, only nine position players can say the same – and five of them are catchers. Even with that in mind, the rumor mill has been strangely quiet for one top free agent in particular: All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Alonso as the seventh-best free agent of the offseason on our annual Top 50 Free Agents list. He was the top first baseman available and, arguably, the second-best pure hitter, behind only Juan Soto. We predicted he’d sign a five-year, $125MM contract. Yet, we haven’t had many opportunities to write about Alonso ever since. Over the past six weeks, the Mets are the only team that has clearly and repeatedly expressed interest in the two-time Home Run Derby champion. Their crosstown rivals are the only other team to be publically linked to Alonso.

Not so long ago, Alonso would have been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, and his potential contract would have been much easier to predict. After all, he is one of the most powerful (and durable) hitters in the game. He has averaged 43 home runs and 112 RBI per 162 games throughout his career. However, teams look at a lot more than just home runs and RBIs these days. They’re also less likely to pay for past performance. Thus, as Alonso approaches his age-30 season coming off two consecutive down years, it’s not hard to imagine why teams might be hesitant to meet his presumptive nine-figure demands. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about why Alonso’s contract was one of the hardest to predict for the Top 50 list.

Even so, it’s impossible to deny that Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in the game. Over the past two seasons, down years by his own standards, Alonso ranks fifth among all hitters with 80 home runs. His 121 wRC+ in that span is 21% better than league average. Only a handful of players are capable of swinging the bat faster or hitting the ball harder than the Polar Bear. In other words, he is still going to find a lucrative contract this winter, even if he has to wait a little longer for his market to heat up.

Let’s take a closer look at every team’s chances of signing Alonso.

Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)

Astros: The Astros freed up some payroll (approximately $8.9MM) by trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and taking on third baseman Isaac Paredes, among others, in return. Adding Paredes won’t necessarily stop Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes could slide over to first base in deference to Bregman, the superior defender. However, this trade makes it more likely the Astros will look to add a new first baseman instead.

Houston has needed a new first baseman since optioning and subsequently releasing José Abreu earlier this year. The team has already expressed interest in Christian Walker, but Alonso could be another target, especially if Bregman signs elsewhere. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM deal earlier this winter. It’s no surprise Bregman turned that number down, but it would probably be enough to land Alonso. That’s not to say the Astros would be willing to spend the same amount for Alonso as they would for Bregman, but at least it suggests that GM Dana Brown has the necessary funds to get a deal done.

Mets: The Mets have always seemed like strong contenders to retain their homegrown slugger. Although winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes may have reduced the pressure on David Stearns to make any other big additions to the offense, it’s not as if signing Soto precludes the Mets from re-signing Alonso. For one thing, the team’s projected payroll for 2025 is still far below where it was in 2023 and ’24. There might be a payroll number even Steve Cohen won’t spend past, but Stearns has tens of millions to work with before that could possibly become an issue.

Stearns also needs to think about how he’s going to address the holes at first base and DH that free agents Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind. Mark Vientos is an option to play first, but he held the third base job in 2024. His defense was graded poorly there but the Mets could be better off if Vientos can hold down a more valuable defensive position. Last week, Cohen noted that the Mets are “still engaged” in contract discussions with Alonso.

Nationals: There’s a reason why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would sign with Washington on our Top 50 list. Several promising young Nationals players took big steps forward in 2024. Perhaps that will encourage ownership and the front office to make a big splash this offseason as the Nats look to get back into contention. Keibert Ruiz is currently the only player on the roster with a guaranteed contract, and RosterResource estimates the club’s 2025 payroll is currently $52MM lower than the team’s final payroll in 2024.

Furthermore, first base is wide open in Washington. Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who combined to play more than 100 games at first for the Nationals this past season, are out of the organization. Juan Yepez is the most likely internal option to play first base in 2025, but he has not done enough over parts of three big league seasons to warrant an everyday role. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has said the club is looking for middle-of-the-order bats and Alonso would certainly fit the bill.

Yankees: Aside from the Mets, the Yankees are the only other team to be credibly linked to Alonso. Early in November, Brian Cashman told Mike Puma of the New York Post that he had spoken to agent Scott Boras about his slugging client. However, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested the Yankees would prefer to sign a first baseman on a shorter deal, describing Walker as “more of a priority.”

Nonetheless, it certainly seems like Alonso is still on the table in the Bronx. That should be true even after the Yankees acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs on Tuesday. Bellinger can play first base, but he’s more useful to the team in the outfield; he can play center field, allowing Aaron Judge to move back to right. Thus, this team could still use a replacement for Anthony Rizzo at first. Ben Rice, who hit .171/.264/.349 over 50 games in his rookie season, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 campaign, are currently the best in-house options.

With a projected $270MM payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource), the Yanks are still about $33MM under their final estimate from 2024. And while they have made several additions, including Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they still have work to do to replace an incredible talent like Soto. That’s especially true when it comes to the offense.

Plausible/On-Paper Dark Horses

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have money to spend and a strong desire to add star power. Alonso isn’t on the same level as some of Toronto’s top targets this winter (including Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), but presumably, the Blue Jays will keep trying until they sign somebody if they continue to lose out on star free agents. To that end, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that “Everyone in the [Blue Jays] organization” believes the offense would look a lot more dangerous with another “legitimate slugger.”

The only thing keeping the Blue Jays out of the “likely suitors” category is the fact that they already have a superstar first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, the two could split first and DH this coming year with Alonso taking over at first if Guerrero leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive teams in MLB this past year, but they lost two of their best hitters to free agency in Walker and Joc Pederson. Alonso could help to make up for much of that missing production. However, if the D-backs are indeed planning to keep payroll at a similar level in 2025, they only have about $24MM to spend, according to the estimates from RosterResource. That might not be enough for them to make a serious run at Alonso, especially if they’re planning to address any other areas of need this winter. Then again, GM Mike Hazen could free up some cash if he can find a way to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.

Giants: New president of baseball operations Buster Posey is clearly trying to get the Giants back into contention as soon as possible; he already signed Willy Adames and has expressed serious interest in Burnes as well. Pitching will probably remain his priority even if he misses out on Burnes. Still, if Posey is considering Burnes, that means he has the funds to make a run at Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. was San Francisco’s primary first baseman in 2024, but the team is reportedly willing to make him available in a trade.

Reds: The Reds are the darkest horse here. They don’t have a clear hole at first base for Alonso, and it’s unclear how much they’re willing to spend this offseason. That said, they could badly use the offense if they want to contend in 2025. New manager Terry Francona could make room for Alonso at first by putting Spencer Steer in left field, Jeimer Candelario at third, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH. And while Cincinnati’s front office hasn’t committed to increasing payroll this winter, they haven’t outwardly shut down the possibility either.

Tigers: Despite such a strong finish in 2024, the Tigers haven’t given their fanbase much reason to believe they’ll spend big to improve this winter. However, if they are going to spend – and they really should – Alonso would be a great fit for the lineup. POBO Scott Harris has acknowledged his team could use another right-handed bat and that Spencer Torkelson’s job at first base is far from secure. A reliable righty bat like Alonso would be a big upgrade over Torkelson and a strong addition to a lefty-heavy Detroit lineup. While the Tigers haven’t been big spenders recently, they’ve run higher payrolls in the not-so-distant past.

Unlikely/Not Happening

Angels: The Angels have been active this offseason, but first base doesn’t seem to be at the top of their priority list. Former first-round pick Nolan Schanuel was mediocre in his first full MLB season, but presumably, the Angels haven’t given up on the young first baseman just yet. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler is penciled in at DH, and Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud could see some time there as well.

Athletics: The A’s could theoretically make room for Alonso at first base/DH by having Brent Rooker play more outfield and Tyler Soderstrom catch more often, but it’s far from a perfect fit. While this team might need to keep spending to avoid an MLBPA grievance, there are better uses for that money.

Braves: With Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves have no need or room for Alonso.

Brewers: The Brewers have been linked to at least one veteran first baseman this offseason; according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, they’re interested in Paul Goldschmidt. However, they’re not usually in play for more expensive free agents like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed a free agent for more than $35MM or more than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest splash on Goldschmidt might require them to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract.

Cardinals: Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ full-time first baseman going forward. Even if that weren’t the case, St. Louis is highly unlikely to sign any long-term contracts this winter.

Cubs: Chicago already made a big offensive addition this offseason, trading for Tucker last week. In order to make room for Alonso, the Cubs would most likely have to trade first baseman Michael Busch or presumptive DH Seiya Suzuki. After trading Bellinger to the Yankees, there’s no indication they’re planning to do that.

Dodgers: The Dodgers need Alonso even less than the Braves, thanks to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP DH Shohei Ohtani.

Guardians: On the rare occasions the Guardians have spent significant money in free agency, it has often been for a defensively limited slugger – think Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. That said, a contract for Pete Alonso would easily be the biggest this front office has ever handed out to a free agent. What’s more, Alonso would only fit in Cleveland if the team were to trade current first baseman Josh Naylor. It would seem counterproductive for the Guardians to deal Naylor and his projected $12MM salary only to turn around and sign Alonso.

Mariners: The Mariners are looking for a righty-batting first baseman, and Alonso would certainly be a nice offensive upgrade for a team that struggled to score runs in 2024. Still, their reported interest in players like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner suggests they aren’t in the market for a bigger free agent addition. The M’s might be planning to increase payroll in 2025, but signing a big name like Alonso still seems unlikely. They haven’t signed a free agent hitter to a contract worth more than $25MM since Nelson Cruz a decade ago.

Marlins: Sure, the Marlins could use Alonso. They could use just about every available free agent. That said, this team is highly unlikely to pursue any free agents who aren’t one-year stopgaps/veterans to flip at the trade deadline.

Orioles: GM Mike Elias has already signed his slugger to replace Anthony Santander, and he went with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. That leaves the O’s with a bit of a logjam at first base/DH, where Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad could all vie for playing time. Elias might make a trade to clear that up, but even so, Baltimore’s payroll is already significantly higher than it was last year, and another big signing for the offense seems improbable.

Padres: The Padres have room for Alonso, especially if they trade Luis Arraez, and they could use a big bat to replace Jurickson Profar. However, POBO A.J. Preller is operating under tight payroll constraints this winter. Even for Preller, who always seems to have a surprise up his sleeve, Alonso doesn’t seem like a realistic target.

Phillies: The Phillies fall into the Braves/Dodgers camp. Their two best hitters, Bryce Harper (1B) and Kyle Schwarber (DH), already occupy the only positions Alonso could fill.

Pirates: Like the Nationals, the Pirates are an up-and-coming young team with room for a veteran bat at first base. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Pirates have never been big players on the free agent market. There’s a good chance they’re planning to run with recent trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.

Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers don’t really have room for Alonso in the lineup. Given their desire to slip beneath the luxury tax in 2025, they probably don’t have the payroll space either. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe has come up in loose trade rumors this offseason, but it wouldn’t really make sense for Texas to part with the cost-controlled Lowe to sign Alonso. Both players have been similarly productive over the past three years. Moreover, the Rangers are reportedly seeking a left-handed bat. Trading the lefty-batting Lowe to sign the righty-batting Alonso would only set them back in that respect.

Rays: Even if the Rays were finally going to shock the baseball world and sign a top free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso probably wouldn’t be their guy. According to wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso at the plate in each of the past three seasons.

Red Sox: Boston already has money to spend but a cluttered first base and DH mix. Rafael Devers is a poor defender at third and the club has considered moving him over to first. But since they have Triston Casas there and Masataka Yoshida likely taking up a lot of DH time, it’s led to rumors of Casas being available on the trading block. Signing Alonso would be an expensive way of further crowding that situation.

Rockies: You can’t completely count out the Rockies – this is the team that signed Kris Bryant to a $182MM deal just a few years ago – but there is no reason to believe Colorado is in on any of the top free agents this year. After Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is likely to get most of the reps at DH in 2025, while the Rockies surely want to see what they have in Michael Toglia at first base.

Royals: The Royals could use the offense, but they’re highly unlikely to spend what it will take to land Alonso. On top of that, they already have a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With players like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez already on the roster, Kansas City probably isn’t looking for a full-time DH.

Twins: The Twins could use a first baseman to replace Carlos Santana, but Alonso is almost surely out of their price range. RosterResource already projects their 2025 payroll to be $12MM higher than the final estimate from 2024.

White Sox: Not happening.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Cohen: Mets “Still Engaged” With Alonso

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At this afternoon’s presser to introduce Juan Soto, Mets owner Steve Cohen said the team is “still engaged” with Pete Alonso (link via Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic). That comes a few days after baseball operations president David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the team would “love to bring Pete back.”

There hasn’t been much public chatter about Alonso’s free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that Alonso would have interest in joining the Yankees if the Mets don’t make a serious push to retain him. Ties between the Yanks and Alonso have been fairly loose, though, as reports have cast them as stronger suitors for Christian Walker. Beyond the New York teams, chatter about the Alonso market has been speculative. The Nationals and Giants are among the teams that could use an impact bat at first base, but there’s no firm indication they’ve been involved.

Alonso declined a qualifying offer last month. Aside from the Mets, every team would forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space to add him. The Mets would relinquish the right to receive a compensatory pick, but that’d only come after the fourth round if he walked. It’s a minimal barrier.

The slugger is coming off a relative down year. Alonso hit .240/.329/.459, the first time in his career he’s had an OPS below .800. His 34 home runs is a personal low over a full season. It’s not an ideal time for his production to dip, but there’s obvious value in a player whose floor is a 30+ homer showing. Alonso has been incredibly durable and started 160 games this past season. He heated up in the postseason, hitting .273/.431/.568 with four homers over 13 games.

As MLBTR explored in a post for Front Office subscribers last month, Alonso is a tricky free agent to value. His reputation could lead his camp to seek a deal approaching or topping Matt Olson ($168MM) and Freddie Freeman ($162MM with deferrals). Front offices have increasingly devalued this general profile, though. Alonso has limited defensive and baserunning value, while his average and on-base percentage are middling.

Stearns preferred not to invest heavily at first base during his time leading baseball operations with the Brewers. Milwaukee ran payrolls that were a fraction of what the Mets do under Cohen, of course, so that’s not necessarily an indication of how Stearns will operate in Queens. Even after paying Soto a record $51MM average annual value, New York has an estimated luxury tax payroll around $252MM (via RosterResource). That’ll probably end up north of $300MM by the end of the offseason. They could certainly accommodate Alonso financially. New York also needs to add at least one starter and will probably deepen the bullpen via another acquisition or two.

Latest On Yankees, Christian Walker

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The Yankees’ interest in Christian Walker was initially reported on last month, but it wasn’t until Juan Soto signed with the Mets that the Yankees were seemingly able to devote more attention to other position-player targets.  The change of focus apparently happened pretty quickly, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Yankees “renewed contract discussions” with Walker’s camp on Sunday evening, which was the same time that news broke of Soto’s record $765MM contract.

While the pitching and hitting markets aren’t exactly the same, the Bombers’ eight-year, $218MM megadeal with Max Fried is easy evidence that New York has been able to quickly pivot into the rest of its target list with Soto off the board.  First base help and lineup help in general are both needs, and signing Walker would address both issues in one fell swoop.

Fried’s deal adds another wrinkle to the Yankees’ pursuit of Walker, or any other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024 and because Fried turned down the Braves’ QO, the Yankees had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money as well as their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in order to complete the signing.  Inking Walker to a deal would cost the Yankees another $1MM in int’l pool funds, as well as two more draft picks — their third- and sixth-highest selections.

As much of a hit this could be to New York’s 2025 draft plans, Brian Cashman’s front office might view it as a necessary cost in order to capitalize on the team’s contention window.  Fried adds another top-flight arm to pair with Gerrit Cole atop a deep Yankee rotation, Aaron Judge is still arguably the best hitter in the sport, Giancarlo Stanton has a bounce-back 2024 season, and a younger core of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and (New York hopes) Jasson Dominguez can all contribute both now and in the future.

Walker would represent another big piece to this puzzle, bringing both elite first-base defense and a strong bat.  Walker is turning 34 in March but hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, plus his age might be a feature and not a bug in terms of the Yankees’ needs.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said that a shorter-term contract might be more preferable for the Yankees than a longer deal for a younger first base option, which is why Morosi notes that Walker “is more of a priority for the Yankees than Pete Alonso would be.”

Mets Notes: Bregman, Alonso, Loaisiga, Blackburn, Mauricio

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As if signing Juan Soto to a record contract wasn’t enough, the Mets could be exploring another big-ticket addition for the corner infield.  Ari Alexander of KPRC (X link) reports that the Mets are among the teams who have interest in Alex Bregman, while president of baseball operations David Stearns told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that the Mets would “love to bring [Pete] Alonso back.”

While referring to Alonso’s market but perhaps speaking broadly about the Mets’ payroll situation as a whole, Stearns said “I think our ownership has consistently demonstrated that there’s going to be resources when we need them.  There is the ability for us to make baseball moves when we think that they’re there to improve the team, and we’re going to continue to pursue a wide variety of areas to continue to improve our team.”

This means that neither Alonso, Bregman, or perhaps a top-tier pitcher can be ruled out during what has already been an aggressive offseason in Queens.  The Mets had so much coming off the books this winter that even with Soto’s mega-deal now factored in, New York’s luxury tax number is still a relatively modest $251.8MM (as per RosterResource’s estimate).  While this is over the $241MM tax threshold, simply exceeding the tax line is nothing to Mets owner Steve Cohen, whose team had an estimated $358.1MM tax number in 2024.

Mark Vientos’ breakout season makes him a lock for one corner infield slot, giving New York some flexibility in deciding what to do with the other side of the diamond.  Vientos could just remain at the hot corner and the Mets could run it back entirely by re-signing a popular homegrown slugger Alonso.  Or, the Mets could shake things up by moving Vientos to first base, clearing room for Bregman as the new starting third baseman.

Both Bregman and Alonso rejected qualifying offers, though in re-signing Alonso, the Mets wouldn’t have to give up any compensation since he is their own free agent.  Signing Soto cost the Mets $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, so signing another QO-rejecting free agent would cost another $1MM of bonus pool funds plus two more picks — this time New York’s third- and sixth-highest selections.  It isn’t entirely out of the question that the Mets could burn such a big chunk of a draft year in search of premium win-now talent, though the club’s preference is likely to avoid another free agent tied to compensation.

Moving onto pitching targets, ESPN’s Jorge Castillo writes that the Mets are one of the teams linked to Jonathan Loaisiga’s market.  Loaisiga was known to have received interest from 14 teams, including both New York clubs.  Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is very familiar with Loaisiga from their shared time together in the Bronx when Mendoza was the Yankees’ bench coach.

Loaisiga pitched just four innings in the 2024 season before his year was cut short by a UCL-related surgery (not a Tommy John procedure).  Multiple injuries have limited Loaisiga to 219 2/3 innings since his MLB debut in 2018, but the right-hander has been an intriguing bullpen weapon when he’s been healthy, delivering a 3.28 ERA over 181 1/3 frames as a reliever.  The buy-low potential is strong, so it isn’t surprising that Loaisiga is drawing such widespread attention from teams in need of bullpen help.

Stearns also provided a couple of injury updates during his media session (hat tip to DiComo and Newsday’s Tim Healey).  The Mets believe Paul Blackburn will be ready for Opening Day in the aftermath of an October surgery to fix a spinal fluid leak.  As dangerous as that procedure sounds, it carried a relatively brief recovery timeline of 4-5 months, and the Mets are encouraged enough by Blackburn’s rehab to now project him on the shorter end of that timeframe.

Blackburn could be another part of New York’s bullpen picture, but Stearns said the right-hander is still being viewed as a starting pitching option.  Blackburn would currently line up as the fifth starter behind Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes, though both his health status throughout Spring Training and the Mets’ further offseason moves could impact that rotation job.  Acquired from the A’s at last year’s trade deadline, Blackburn was limited to five starts and 24 1/3 innings (posting a 5.18 ERA) due to both his back problem and a hand bruise.

It was almost exactly a year ago that top prospect Ronny Mauricio suffered a torn ACL during winter ball action, and Stearns said that Mauricio is now getting back to baseball-related activities.  A former regular of the top-100 prospect rankings, Mauricio made his MLB debut in the form of 26 games and 108 PA for the Mets in 2023, but his injury dealt a big setback to his chances of being a bigger part of the infield mix last season.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

How Will The Market Value Pete Alonso?

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There are a few players who are tough to predict during the preparation of the Top 50 free agents every year. Often, they're players whose reputation outpaces their statistical output, especially in their walk year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.

We landed on a five-year, $125MM prediction that ranked him seventh in the class. That seems to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning power have landed in the $140MM to $170MM range.* Those align more closely with the Polar Bear's reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket. Freeman landed a deferred $162MM contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168MM over eight seasons.

Alonso likely expects to be paid similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his previous representatives felt he could do better. (He has since hired the Boras Corporation.) He'll need to buck some market trends for that to be the case.

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13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Stearns: Mets Need To Add Multiple Starting Pitchers

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The Mets had a good run in 2024 but came up just short of the final goal, getting eliminated by the Dodgers in the NLCS a few days ago. President of baseball operations David Stearns met with members of the media today to discuss the season that was and the offseason ahead, with SNYtv relaying the entire half-hour press conference on X.

Stearns discussed a number of topics but a major theme was the club’s high number of departing free agents. Each of Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker are Jose Iglesias headed to the open market, along with a number of relievers. Sean Manaea is also going to be added to that list eventually, once he officially declines his $13.5MM player option.

That leaves a lot of holes on the roster but also means a lot of money is coming off the books. The Mets also ate money in facilitating trades in previous years, sending out players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James McCann. Those contracts are also expiring now, freeing up even more cash. RosterResource projects the Mets for about $161MM for next year’s roster, well below this year’s $336MM. A few non-tenders and Manaea opting out will widen that gap even farther.

“We’ve got financial flexibility,” Stearns said when asked about that subject. “It means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity and being aggressive in certain spaces.”

Since Steve Cohen has purchased the club, the Mets have been one of the top clubs in terms of spending, often at the very top of payroll lists. Stearns was only hired a year ago and an unknown factor in the Mets’ future is how he will operate with that spending capacity, after spending most of his career with a lower-spending club in Milwaukee.

His first offseason running the Mets saw the club spread the money around to various players but without any long-term commitments. He signed nine players to one-year deals with Manaea the only player to get even a second season, and even that came with an opt-out after one year. That offseason came after a disappointing 2023 campaign that turned the Mets into sellers, which included the aforementioned Scherzer and Verlander deals, but still with lots of money tied up. What remains to be seen is if Stearns will now act differently on the heels of a more successful season and with much more powder dry.

“We also have to recognize,” Stearns continued, “that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis. So, you’re right. We have a lot of money coming off the books. I would expect us to spend some of that, a good portion of that, to complement our team, to improve our team heading into next year. We’re also not going to do anything that hamstrings us in future years and prevents us from continually adding, supplementing to our core.”

Those comments could be interpreted in many ways. Even the highest payroll clubs want to spend their money as wisely as possible, which is naturally part of what he’s referencing here. While that could perhaps be a suggestion that the club will have some restraint with their new spending capacity, he also wouldn’t be doing himself any favors by coming out and baldly declaring that he was planning on spending his winter throwing money out the back of a train. Simply for leverage in contract talks, it makes sense for him to play his cards close to the vest when discussing plans like this.

Time will tell whether this offseason will see the Mets signing a bunch of superstars or making more measured additions, but Stearns didn’t shy away from the rotation question. As mentioned, the club is set to lose a bunch of players, including three starting pitchers in Manaea, Severino and Quintana. Each of those guys topped 170 innings in 2024, so the combined subtraction of that trio will be significant. Christian Scott also underwent UCL surgery in September and will likely miss all of 2025.

Next year’s rotation currently projects to include Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Senga missed most of 2024 due to various injuries while Peterson and Megill are a tier below fully established starters, as the Mets have moved each to the minors or the bullpen on occasion. Stearns was asked about Peterson, Megill and José Buttó but wouldn’t commit on whether any of those guys would be more likely to be in the rotation or bullpen in 2025. The club can retain Paul Blackburn via arbitration but he has battled multiple injuries in his career and recently underwent a spinal procedure that’s going to take months to recover from, which could lead to a non-tender.

“We faced a similar task last offseason. We’re going to have to replace innings,” Stearns said when asked about the rotation. “Certainly, part of that could potentially be from some of those guys returning or we may look elsewhere. But we’re going to have to add starting pitching. We’re going to have to add multiple starters. We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same need and I think we’ll be able to do it.”

Last winter, the rotation was without Verlander and Scherzer after those trades while Carlos Carrasco had also become a free agent. As mentioned, Stearns gave a one-year deal to Severino while Manaea got two years with an opt-out, and the club also acquired Adrian Houser from Milwaukee.

The Severino and Manaea deals both worked out well, which is why Manaea is now slated to opt-out and is also likely to receive a qualifying offer. Severino could get one as well but is perhaps more of a borderline case, as explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday.

The Mets could look to bring those guys back, as Stearns said, but the market will have other options. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty will be the top free agents this winter and could command nine-figure deals. Stearns never spent on pitching in that way with the Brewers but was also working with far less spending capacity. He continued to invest somewhat modestly last winter but perhaps could pivot now that the Mets are in a different position than they were a year ago.

If he and the Mets prefer to stick to a lower level of free agency, Manaea, Severino and Quintana will be there alongside guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and others. Despite all the available payroll space, Stearns said he still planned to explore the trade market, which would be another path to upgrading the rotation. Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell and just some of the names that could speculatively available in that space.

Along somewhat similar lines, there is the Pete Alonso question. Stearns never spent big money on first basemen during his time in Milwaukee, with the three-year, $15MM deal for Eric Thames being his largest investment in that position. Alonso will certainly command more than that and reportedly already turned down an extension offer of $158MM from the Mets in June of 2023, before Stearns was hired.

The merits of spending that kind of money on a first baseman whose contributions are mostly in the power department can be debated, but Alonso is also a franchise icon at this point, thanks to his homegrown status as well as his crowd-pleasing performances in home run derbies and playoff games. Stearns said the club would love to have the Polar Bear back but that Alonso deserves to explore the free agent market.

“All of that is important,” Stearns said, when asked about weighing Alonso as a player but also as a staple of the franchise. “Who Pete is as a person is important. What he means to this franchise is important. Who he is as a player is also important and what he contributes on the field. There’s no magic formula to this. There’s no equation that spits out what all of that is for us. And so, there’s judgment involved. There’s evaluating the market involved. And we’ll see how this process goes throughout the offseason.”

Stearns was also asked about hiring a general manager, which he didn’t seem in a rush to do. Billy Eppler was going to work in that role under Stearns until he stepped down a year ago after it was revealed he was under investigation for the club misusing the injured list. Stearns said he is happy with the current front office makeup and doesn’t plan to do any kind of GM search, though he would consider making a hire if someone intriguing became available.

There’s still plenty to be determined in exactly how the Mets will operate this winter, but given the number of openings on the roster and the club’s spending capacity, it doesn’t seem like anything is off the table at this point.

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