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Wade Miley

Brewers Reinstate Wade Miley, Jesse Winker From Injured List; Designate Jon Singleton

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The Brewers announced four roster moves, including the activation of both Wade Miley and Jesse Winker from the injured list.  Miley was placed on the 15-day IL due to a lat strain on May 17, while Winker has been on the 10-day IL since May 28 due to a cervical strain.  To create space on the active roster, the Brewers optioned right-hander Tyson Miller to Triple-A and designated first baseman Jon Singleton for assignment.

Miley inked a one-year deal worth $4.5MM in guaranteed money to come to Milwaukee during the offseason, and the veteran southpaw has delivered a 3.67 ERA over 41 2/3 innings.  Miley’s 40.4% grounder rate and 10.3% barrel rate are both significantly worse than in recent seasons, though it’s hard to yet make any big projections given the small sample size of innings.  The lefty has made up for those numbers with a borderline elite 5.3% walk rate, as well as his customary good work at limiting hard contact.

Miley will start today’s game against the Pirates, and his return brings some more relief to a Milwaukee rotation that has been hit hard with injuries.  Brandon Woodruff will still be out until at least the All-Star break and Aaron Ashby will miss all of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery, but with Miley now back on the mound, the Brew Crew are at least a step closer to their initial first-choice rotation.  Adrian Houser will be shifted to the bullpen, leaving Miley, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, and Julio Teheran as Milwaukee’s current rotation.

Winker was another offseason acquisition, picked up from the Mariners along with Abraham Toro in exchange for Kolten Wong.  The trade hasn’t worked out for either team to date, as Wong and Winker have each badly struggled with their new clubs.  Winker has looking to bounce back from a relatively disappointing 2022 campaign in Seattle, yet the 108 wRC+ he posted with the Mariners is far above the 60 wRC+ (off a .204/.315/.231 slash line) that Winker has delivered over his first 127 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform.  There’s still plenty of time for Winker to turn things around, as perhaps the three weeks on the IL both healed his neck problem and might serve as a fresh start to his 2023 season.

The Brewers selected Singleton’s contract from Triple-A earlier this month, and he hit only .103/.188/.138 over 32 PA.  While an underwhelming slash line, just making it back to the big leagues for the first time since 2015 marked a personal victory for Singleton, whose battle with marijuana addiction took him out of baseball entirely for three seasons until he launched a comeback in the Mexican League in 2021.  If Singleton clears DFA waivers and the Brewers outright him to Triple-A, Singleton can choose to become a free agent, since he has been outrighted off a 40-man roster in the past.

NL Central Notes: Steele, Votto, Adames, Miley, Velasquez

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Cubs fans received some positive news regarding left-hander Justin Steele yesterday. The 27-year-old hurler was pulled from his start on Wednesday after just three innings of work due to forearm tightess and underwent an MRI on Thursday to determine the severity of the issue. As noted by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian on Twitter, Steele described the result of the MRI as “good news” and said that the plan is for him to play catch today before determining the path forward. With that being said, WSCR-AM’s Bruce Levine notes that a source considers Steele “likely” to miss his next start, which he would otherwise be on schedule take Tuesday against the Angels.

After securing a spot in the starting rotation to open the 2022 campaign, Steele ended last season looking like an above-average, mid-rotation or better starter over 24 starts, posting a 3.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 51.2% groundball rate in 119 innings of work. Only budding Rays ace Shane McClanahan managed to post a higher strikeout rate while maintaining a groundball rate over 50% last year. What’s more, Steele has managed to build on his strong first season as a regular starter for the this season, with a 2.65 ERA that’s only bested by rotation-mate Marcus Stroman and Braves youngster Bryce Elder in the National League.

The news that his forearm strain isn’t anything serious and he’s unlikely to miss significant time is surely a relief for a Cubs team that has relied on the young lefty to carry their pitching staff alongside Stroman, with the duo representing 18 of the club’s 25 quality starts in 2023.  With that said, it seems likely that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will fill in for Steele in the event the injured left-hander does miss a start. Wesneski struggled to a 4.81 ERA and 5.65 FIP this season after earning the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with a dominant performance in spring training, leaving the Cubs to remove him from the rotation when Kyle Hendricks returned to the mound from injury.

More from around the NL Central:

  • According to MLB.com, Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has resumed baseball activities for the first time since he was struck by a foul ball in last week’s game against the Giants, landing him on the 7-day concussion IL. Adames is currently working out with the the club’s High-A affiliate rather than joining the club on their flight to Cincinnati in order to avoid the wear-and-tear of air travel, according to manager Craig Counsell. The club plans to decide whether or not Adames, who has struggled to a 84 wRC+ in 51 games this season, needs a minor league rehab assignment before he can return to big league action later this weekend. In the meantime, they figure to continue going with a combination of Brice Turang, Owen Miller, and Andruw Monasterio up the middle.
  • Sticking with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy notes that left-hander Wade Miley is making good progress on his rehab from a posterior serratus strain. While he was initially expected to be shelved for six to eight weeks, McCalvy reports that if Miley is able to avoid any setbacks he’s currently set to return from the IL after just four weeks after throwing a bullpen session on Thursday. Miley posted eight solid starts for the Brewers prior to his injury as the veteran lefty threw 41 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA baseball.
  • Reds first baseman and future Hall of Famer Joey Votto is set to begin a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville today, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Votto has been on the shelf since he underwent surgery on his rotator cuff back in August, and posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 91 games prior to the surgery. Still, he figures to share first base and DH duties with Spencer Steer upon his return to big league action.
  • Right-hander Vince Velasquez was activated from the injured list and returned to the Pirates’ rotation just last week, but immediately felt discomfort in his right elbow and returned to the injured list. According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, his current IL-stay will not be a short one, as the veteran is expected to be transferred to the 60-day IL in the near future. Velasquez had pitched well for the Pirates across eight starts this season prior to his injury, with a 3.86 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Velasquez’s return to the IL leaves the club with a rotation of Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo, Rich Hill, and Luis Ortiz.

Wade Miley Likely To Miss 6-8 Weeks With Posterior Serratus Strain

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Brewers left-hander Wade Miley has been diagnosed with a posterior serratus strain and will likely miss the next six to eight weeks, manager Craig Counsell tells reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The southpaw was placed on the 15-day injured list earlier this week with what was initially described as a lat strain.

The posterior serratus muscle is on the back, roughly at the bottom of the ribcage. As relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, it’s rare for a baseball player to strain this muscle, which means the Brewers are putting some guesswork into this recovery timeline.

Regardless of the exact length of Miley’s eventual absence, it seems that it will be somewhat significant, which is unfortunate for the Brewers. They signed the lefty this winter to a one-year deal with a $4.5MM guarantee and incentives. He was off to a strong start, having taken the ball eight times with a 3.67 ERA in those. He only struck out 14% of batters faced but he’s never been a huge strikeout guy. His 5.3% walk rate showed excellent control and he was in the 76th percentile of qualified pitchers in limiting hard contact.

The Brewers knew they would be proceeding without Miley for a bit but will now seemingly have to extended their plans for not having him around. The club is also without starters Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander, none of whom seem particularly close to returning. That leaves them with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser in four rotation spots, with one to fill. Colin Rea and Janson Junk are both on the 40-man roster and would seem to be the first choices to come up, since each has been with the big league club previously this season.

Brewers To Place Wade Miley On IL With Lat Strain

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3:05pm: The Brewers have now officially placed Miley on the IL, recalling righty Jake Cousins in a corresponding move.

9:34am: Brewers lefty Wade Miley departed  last night’s game in the second inning after throwing just 22 pitches. It was later announced that he has a left lat strain and will be placed on the 15-day injured list, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter links).

At this point, it’s not known who will take Miley’s roster spot or how long he’ll be out of action, with the southpaw undoubtedly set for further testing in the days to come. But even a mild lat strain usually requires about two to three weeks of recovery time, meaning Miley will likely be looking at more than a minimum stint on the injured list.

Miley was off to a solid start to the year, proceeding in his low-strikeout ways, succeeding by inducing soft contact. Through eight starts, he has a 3.67 ERA despite a modest 14% strikeout rate. But his 5.3% walk rate is excellent and Statcast pegs his average exit velocity in the 73rd percentile among qualified pitchers and his hard hit rate in the 76th.

Losing Miley for a few weeks will present a challenge to a Milwaukee club that is already dealing with a few other injuries to its rotation. Brandon Woodruff has a subscapular strain and isn’t expected back before late June, Jason Alexander has a shoulder strain of his own and is on the 60-day IL, while Aaron Ashby had shoulder surgery and may not be able to pitch this year at all.

That will leave the Brewers with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser in the four rotation spots and a question mark for the final slot. It’s possible that they recall Colin Rea, who had been with the club in recent weeks until Houser returned from his groin strain. Rea has a 5.52 ERA in 31 innings this year over six starts and one relief appearance. He was only optioned a few days ago but would be eligible to return quicker than the standard 15-day minimum if he’s the corresponding move for Miley going on the injured list. Janson Junk is also on the 40-man roster and has a 3.86 ERA in Triple-A this year. He was called up to make a spot start in April but allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks in 4 2/3 innings.

Non-roster options would include Robert Gasser, who is one of the club’s top pitching prospects and is at the Triple-A level, but he has a 5.17 ERA there this year. Thomas Pannone is with the club on a minor league deal, having started the year in the Triple-A bullpen but getting stretched out recently. He has a 2.04 ERA through 17 2/3 innings there. Either of these two or any other non-roster option would require a corresponding move to get them onto the 40-man.

Brewers Notes: Voit, Sanchez, Miley

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Luke Voit has been a member of the Brewers organization for just a few weeks. The former home run leader signed a minor league deal a couple weeks ago, getting an opportunity to audition for a roster spot early in Spring Training.

The Brewers will have to make that call relatively early into exhibition play. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Voit would be able to opt out of the deal next Thursday if he’s not added to the big league roster. According to Sherman, Voit’s deal would come with a $2MM base salary if he makes the MLB club.

While that’s far from an exorbitant sum, it remains to be seen whether Milwaukee feels there’ll be sufficient at-bats for Voit to warrant a spot. Keston Hiura is on hand as an in-house option with a similar power-oriented skillset from the right side. Hiura has run exorbitant strikeout tallies over the past few years but he’s flashed impact power upside. The former ninth overall pick connected on 14 home runs with a quality .222 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in just 80 games last season.

Voit and Hiura are seemingly jockeying for reps as a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging first base/DH options Rowdy Tellez and Jesse Winker. Both Hiura and Voit have actually fared worse against left-handed pitching than righties over the course of their careers. Tellez and especially Winker have had more traditional splits, however, with both handling righties better over the years. While neither Voit nor Hiura has functioned as a traditional lefty masher, they each offer some righty pop to help balance the order.

Adding some power from that side of the dish was apparently a goal for Milwaukee. To that end, Sherman writes that the Brew Crew had checked in with free agent catcher Gary Sánchez earlier in the offseason. Milwaukee subsequently acquired their new backstop, William Contreras, from the Braves as part of the three-team Sean Murphy trade. That swap landed the Brewers five seasons of control over a player they hope to be the long-term answer behind the dish at the cost of center field prospect Esteury Ruiz, who went to Oakland.

Sánchez still has yet to put pen to paper despite reports of interest from the likes of the Angels and Giants in recent months. He’s one of the top unsigned hitters available. Milwaukee no longer has a need for MLB catching, as the duo of Contreras and Víctor Caratini will handle the load. Milwaukee brought in Payton Henry from the Marlins in a low-profile trade to serve as the #3 option. There’s no indication Sánchez remains on the radar as a result, though he could be of interest to any number of teams if he’s willing to take a minor league deal at this stage of the winter.

A bat-first catcher for most of his time with the Yankees, Sánchez flipped the script to an extent during his lone season in Minnesota last year. He hit 16 homers but with a fairly modest .205/.282/.377 overall showing through 471 trips to the plate. That was among the worst full-season offensive performances of his career but he received roughly average grades for his pitch framing and ball-blocking from Statcast.

While Sánchez’s destination is still to be determined, there are no such questions with starter Wade Miley. The Brewers brought him back on a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. It’ll be season number 13 for the 36-year-old southpaw, who acknowledged he thought at points this offseason his career might be over.

“I was so unsure at the end of the year for what was next,” Miley told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I wanted to get my shoulder healthy. I did a little program right after the season was over and it didn’t feel good at all. I did it for four weeks and it was awful. That’s when I went into – I wouldn’t call it depressed mode, but I was like ’it’s not worth it.’ At that moment, I was like, ’I think we’re done.’ Me and my wife talked, and I said, ‘I think this might be it.’”

Miley is coming off a season in which shoulder issues kept him to only nine appearances with the Cubs. Fortunately, he says his arm feels good after an offseason of rest and he felt comfortable giving things another go. Miley figures to take a back-end rotation role in Milwaukee, offering some veteran depth behind Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Eric Lauer. That takes on added importance for the Brew Crew after spring injuries to Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander have thinned the depth beyond Miley and #6 starter Adrian Houser. As for his long-term outlook, Miley told Nightengale “I guess as long as (teams) keep calling, I’ll keep playing.”

Brewers Sign Wade Miley

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Jan. 9: The Brewers formally announced their one-year deal with Miley. This weekend’s trade of Justin Topa to the Mariners opened a spot on the 40-man roster.

Jan. 4: The Brewers are in agreement with veteran starter Wade Miley on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $4.5MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Miley will make $3.5MM next season and is guaranteed a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2024 campaign.

The deal also contains various innings-based incentives that could max it out at $6MM. He’d earn an extra $150K by getting to 75 innings pitched, followed by $350K for getting to the 100-inning plateau and two $500K bonuses available at 125 and 150 innings. The deal also contains a $250K assignment bonus if Miley were traded.

Miley, 36, heads to his third NL Central team in as many seasons. He spent two years with the Reds from 2020-21, including a 3.37 ERA through 28 starts during the latter campaign. The Reds nevertheless placed him on waivers at the start of last offseason, as they’d evidently determined not to trigger a $10MM option on his services. Miley was claimed by the Cubs, who promptly exercised the option, and he went on to spend one year on Chicago’s North Side.

It wasn’t the kind of season the Cubs had envisioned. The 12-year MLB veteran began the season on the injured list thanks to inflammation in his throwing elbow. He made his team debut in early May, but that return proved short-lived. He went back on the IL after four starts, this time due to a strain in his shoulder. Miley wound up out of action for over two months, not returning until September. He pitched five times down the stretch, concluding his season with nine appearances.

To his credit, the crafty veteran remained effective when able to take the hill. The former All-Star pitched to a 3.16 ERA through 37 innings. He averaged only 85.1 MPH on the cutter that served as his primary pitch and struck out a below-average 17.6% of opponents. Miley has never overpowered batters, relying instead on solid enough control and the ability to avoid barrels.

That was again the case during his limited 2022 work. Miley induced grounders on a very strong 52.6% of batted balls. He held opponents to a subpar 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and allowed fewer than one home run for every nine innings pitched for a third straight season. While he hasn’t topped a 20% strikeout rate in a season since 2014, his heavy reliance on a cutter and changeup has allowed him to consistently keep away from damaging contact.

That track record is clearly of appeal to a Milwaukee club that plays in a fairly hitter-friendly home park. The Brewers already have six quality starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff headline the group, followed by Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser are quality options at the back end. Miley has started 285 of his 292 MLB appearances, though it’s possible Milwaukee prefers to deploy him in a more flexible swing role considering his lack of innings in 2022.

If the plan is for Miley to secure a season-opening rotation spot, that could free up general manager Matt Arnold and his front office to market Lauer or Houser in trade. The Brewers could look for another bat to incorporate into the right field and first base mix, and it’s possible they bring in a veteran infielder to lessen the workload for Luis Urías or rookie Brice Turang. Dealing one of their incumbent starters would be a way to bolster a lineup that was middle-of-the-pack last season.

It’s Milwaukee’s first significant dip into major league free agency this offseason. Miley’s relatively modest salary brings the Brewers payroll projection to approximately $119MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Milwaukee opened last year with a player payroll just shy of $132MM, so there should still be room for Arnold and his group to build out the roster as they try to close the gap with the Cardinals at the top of the division.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Miley and the Brewers were in agreement on a one-year, $4.5MM deal that could max out at $6MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report Miley would receive a $3.5MM salary in 2023 and that the deal contained a $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout; Nightengale was also first with the specifics of the incentive structure and the assignment bonus.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

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With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3

Cubs, Drew Smyly To Discuss Possible Contract Extension

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The Cubs are facing the potential free agent departures of a pair of veteran starters, with both Drew Smyly and Wade Miley headed towards the open market a month from now. Miley will be a free agent, while Smyly’s contract contains a $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout for the 2023 campaign.

Theoretically, a team will only exercise its end of a mutual option if it feels the price is at or below the player’s market value. The player, conversely, will typically only trigger his end if he feels the option price is at or above what he could find on the open market. Thus, mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. In the vast majority of cases, players with mutual options are essentially impending free agents.

That’s the case for Smyly, but there’s a chance he doesn’t remain unsigned until free agency. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the Cubs are planning to meet with the left-hander’s representatives at Frontline later this month to discuss a potential new contract. Lee notes it’s unlikely Smyly will return on the terms of the mutual option itself but it’s possible the sides can line up on a new deal. As is the case with all impending free agents, the Cubs will have an exclusive negotiating window with Smyly until five days after the end of the World Series.

Smyly has technically had a pair of stints as a Cub, although he didn’t throw a pitch with Chicago until 2022. He signed a two-year deal heading into the 2018 season, with the Cubs aware he’d miss all of that season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. After the ’18 campaign, Chicago dealt him to the Rangers. Smyly pitched for four different teams from 2019-21 before returning to the Cubs on a one-year deal this spring. He received a $4.25MM salary for this past season and will be guaranteed another $1MM on the option buyout.

The 33-year-old had a generally solid return season to the North Siders. He missed a month mid-summer with a right oblique strain, but he otherwise stayed healthy enough to take the ball 22 times. Across 106 1/3 innings, Smyly posted a 3.47 ERA. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents, leading to less favorable reviews from fielding independent estimators. On the plus side, he only walked 5.8% of batters faced (below the 7.5% league average for starters) and held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity. Smyly’s 12.4% swinging strike rate was an above-average mark that suggests he was somewhat unfortunate to generate his mediocre strikeout percentage, and he absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line through 101 plate appearances.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this season, though, and he’s generally posted solid strikeout and walk numbers throughout his career. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. He’s not been a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

The Cubs didn’t seem to aggressively market and/or find much trade interest in Smyly this summer. Despite his being a rental on a non-competitive team, there weren’t many public trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Smyly pitched to a sparkling 2.28 ERA in nine starts after the deadline, however, sending him towards free agency on the heels of a strong final couple months.

Whether that’ll be enough for the Arkansas product to find a multi-year deal heading into his age-34 season remains to be seen. Alex Cobb received a two-year, $20MM pact at the same age last winter. Cobb was coming off 98 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball through 18 starts. He had a similar swinging strike rate in 2021 as Smyly did this season, but Cobb finished off more strikeouts and had an excellent 53.3% grounder rate. It seems unlikely Smyly will get quite to that level as a result, but there’s recent precedent for a multi-year deal for a pitcher coming off a broadly similar showing at the same age.

As another recent comparison point, Corey Kluber landed a one-year, $8MM guarantee (with incentives that could take the deal’s value to $13MM) after pitching 80 innings with a 3.83 ERA and a 12.5% swinging strike percentage last year. Kluber, a two-time Cy Young winner, has had a far more accomplished career than Smyly, but his 2021 production wasn’t far off Smyly’s 2022 numbers.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer didn’t address contract specifics, but he did broadly suggest the Cubs would have interest in retaining both Smyly and Miley. “With both guys, in the right setup, we’d love to have them back,” Hoyer told reporters this afternoon (via Lee). “They both have a really positive impact on the organization. And there’s no finish line when it comes to adding guys that can make starts in the big leagues and that can add to your culture.”

Among in-house options, the Cubs are certain to pencil Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks into the Opening Day rotation. Left-hander Justin Steele pitched well enough through 24 starts to likely earn a spot as well, but the back of the rotation is mostly up for grabs. Hayden Wesneski, acquired from the Yankees in the Scott Effross deadline deal, pitched well through his first four big league starts. He’s in the mix with Keegan Thompson and journeyman Adrian Sampson for back-end roles, but there’s certainly an opportunity for Hoyer and his staff to bolster the group this offseason.

NL Notes: Cubs, Nationals, Marlins

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Chicago Cubs veteran starter Wade Miley left yesterday’s game with left oblique tightness after fielding a bunt, according to MLB.com. Miley, who will be 36 next season, has had a frustrating, injury-filled season. The southpaw started the season on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation and dealt with an additional left shoulder strain before being activated in early May. He would make three starts in May before being faced with injuries again, eventually being placed on the 60-day injured list with a left shoulder strain in June.

The Cubs’ acquisition of Miley via waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason was rather noteworthy, as the lefty came with a $10MM salary for the 2022 season and the Cubs were not considered contenders entering the 2022 season. Miley was coming off a rather productive four-year stretch, posting a 3.53 ERA in 425 1/3 innings and making 81 starts, albeit with a low 18.0% strikeout rate and an average 8.1% walk rate. However, Miley ranked highly in his ability to miss bats; he was in the 95th percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 83rd percentile for HardHit%, 75th percentile for Barrel %, and 77th percentile for Chase Rate in the 2021 season. With the Cubs out of contention for the 2022 playoffs and Miley a free agent at the end of the season, the Cubs may decide to end his season early and give starts to players fighting to make the starting rotation in the spring.

Elsewhere in the National League:

  • The Cubs have been searching for Anthony Rizzo’s heir, and they might have found it, reports Patrick Mooney of the Athletic. First baseman Matt Mervis has had a remarkable 2022 season. Beginning in High-A South Bend, the 24-year-old mashed pitchers to the tune of .350/.389/.650 with a 1.039 OPS in 100 at-bats before being promoted to Double-A Tennessee. Mervis picked up right where he left off, slashing .300/.370/.596/.966 with 14 home runs in 203 at-bats, earning a promotion to Triple-A Iowa and continuing to punish pitchers, posting a .297/.387/.595 slash line for a .982 OPS with another 14 home runs in 195 at-bats. On the heels of this dominant showing throughout the Minors, Cubs manager David Ross has been rather coy on the Cubs’ plans for Mervis, stating that “there’s no doubt that he’ll have a great opportunity in front of him moving forward”  and that Mervis is “definitely on the radar.”
  • As Washington Nationals’ rookie pitcher Josiah Gray wraps up his 2022 season, the Nationals are keeping a close eye on his innings count and have hinted at the possibility of shutting him down early, as reported by MLB.com. Coming to the Nationals from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade in 2021, Gray has shown flashes of brilliance and growing pains. Cumulatively, Gray has pitched to 5.17 ERA (27 starts) in 142 2/3 innings with an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and a high 10.4% walk rate. However, these numbers do not explain the whole story, with Gray posting a 1.13 ERA in June (24 innings) and only allowing 13 hits and 3 earned runs. However, in July, Gray pitched to a 6.75 ERA (26 2/3 innings), giving up 30 hits and 20 earned runs. With the Nationals at the bottom of the NL East, they may turn their focus to the 2023 season and give Gray an extended offseason in preparation for his age-25 season.
  • In other Nationals news, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who was acquired in the Juan Soto and Josh Bell blockbuster at the trade deadline, is working back from his left elbow inflammation, according to MLB.com. Gore has been on the injured list since July 26 and is currently continuing his rehabilitation in Triple-A Rochester. The Nationals are hoping that the 23-year-old will make at least one big league start with the team before the end of the season, and plan to have him throw 75-plus pitches in his next rehab start.
  • The Miami Marlins’ rebuild has yet to bear any fruit, and the team may be adjusting its roster for the 2023 season. Having traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna in the span of a few years, fans were aware that the team was entering a rebuild. However, the rebuild has yet to show any moderate signs of success. After making the postseason in 2020, the Marlins seem destined to finish the season below .500 for the twelfth time in the last thirteen seasons. An article by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins view former first-rounder JJ Bleday as a “serviceable starter or platoon outfielder” and that “he does not project as a full-time center fielder.” Since a late July callup, Bleday has posted a measly .169/.285/.305/.590 slash line in his first MLB season with an inflated 28.5% strikeout percentage but with a high 13% walk rate. In a similar thought, the Marlins are “no longer counting on ” Lewin Díaz as their everyday first baseman because of his poor offensive performance. In his third season of Major League action, Díaz has posted a .163/.223/.281/.504 slash line in 148 plate appearances. Importantly, Díaz has seen an increase in his strikeout percentage and is fanning at a 30.4% clip and only walking at 6.8%.

Cubs Make Series Of Roster Moves

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The Cubs have activated left-hander Wade Miley from the 60-day injured list, per reporter Mark Gonzales. Right-hander Luke Farrell was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Additionally, Gonzales relays that catcher Willson Contreras has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 3. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury of late. Outfielder Michael Hermosillo has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list to take his place on the active roster, with right-hander Nicholas Padilla getting designated for assignment to open up a 40-man spot.

Farrell, 31, is in his sixth MLB season, having pitched for the Royals, Reds, Rangers and Twins, in addition to the Cubbies. However, he’s logged just 98 2/3 innings over those six campaigns, with a 4.83 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 11.4% walk rate and 31.8% ground ball rate. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs this year, getting selected in August. He’s thrown 11 MLB innings on the season with a 4.09 ERA. In 59 Triple-A innings, he has a 5.03 ERA for the year.

Miley, 35, will be looking for a strong finish to a frustrating season. Due to both elbow and shoulder issues, Miley has spent much of the season on the injured list and has made only four starts this year. That’s come on the heels of a tremendous 2021 season with the Reds that saw him throw 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA. The Reds could have kept him around via a $10MM club option but instead put him on waivers and saw the Cubs snatch him up. Chicago was surely hoping for Miley to act as a veteran stabilizer in a rotation experiencing much turnover as part of the club’s rebuild. Instead, he’s been absent for much of the year while trying to get healthy. He recently spoke to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his intention to continue pitching. The Cubs are well out of postseason contention, but Miley will have the remaining four weeks of the regular season to showcase his arm before the offseason begins.

Contreras, 30, hasn’t played in a week due to this lingering ankle issue. The Cubs didn’t place him on the IL until now, likely hoping that a few days’ rest would help it go away. However, that doesn’t seem to have happened, based on today’s move. Because it was backdated, Contreras could potentially return in a week if he heals up. Like Miley, Contreras is an impending free agent, which made him a clear trade candidate prior to the deadline. However, he ended up sticking with Chicago in one of the more shocking developments of early August. This ankle injury will be a snag on what has been the best season of his career. Contreras has hit 21 home runs and is slashing .246/.351/.471. The resulting 132 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR are both career highs. Like Miley, he’ll be looking to get back on the field before the offseason kicks into gear. With Contreras out of action, Yan Gomes will likely get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate, with P.J. Higgins on hand as a backup.

Padilla, 25, was selected to the big league roster for the first time just two weeks ago. He made just a single MLB appearance, having spent most of his time this year in the minors. He’s thrown 47 innings on the farm this year across three different levels, registering a 2.11 ERA with a strong 30.5% strikeout rate but a high 13.7% walk rate. Given his youth, years of control and full slate of options, he could hold appeal for a team looking for some bullpen depth. He and Farrell will each be placed on waivers in the coming days, since the trade deadline has already passed.

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