Rays Activate Zach Eflin, DFA Hector Perez
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays have activated right-hander Zach Eflin from the 15-day IL to start this afternoon’s game against the White Sox. In a corresponding move, the club has designated right-hander Hector Perez for assignment.
Eflin’s return will help fortify a Rays rotation currently wracked with injuries. In addition to Tyler Glasnow having yet to make his debut this season thanks to an oblique strain, breakout left-hander Jeffrey Springs saw his season end last week when it was announced he is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Eflin, who signed a three-year, $40MM deal to join the Rays over the offseason, had a 3.27 ERA and 2.63 FIP in two starts before being placed on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness. The ailment clearly proved to be minor, as Eflin is returning after a backdated minimum stay on the IL.
That’s good news for the Rays, who now have another reliable arm in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and prospect Taj Bradley. With Bradley and Rasmussen set to pitch the next two days, the Rays will need another starter on Wednesday, though it’s possible they could turn to a bullpen game led by lefty Josh Fleming, who opened the season in the rotation but has since been bumped to the bullpen after struggling in his first start of the season.
As for Perez, the 26-year-old right-hander was selected just yesterday and did not end up making an appearance during his stint on the roster. Perez has made just one appearance in his big league career, a 1 2/3 inning outing with the Blue Jays in 2020 during which he surrendered two runs on three hits and three walks. Perez has long struggled with his control, as evidenced by his career 14.4% walk rate. Those control problems have likely contributed to his struggles to return to a major league mound over the past three seasons. The Rays will now have seven days to trade, waive, or release Perez.
Rays Notes: Ballpark, Eflin, Siri, Thompson, Glasnow
The Rays “seem to be making progress” on a new ballpark, principal owner Stuart Sternberg told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While the organization has still been talking with Tampa officials about the possibility of building a long-awaited new stadium in that city, Sternberg said “we’ve been focused on” remaining in St. Petersburg, and a proposed plan that would see the Rays’ new home built near the current site of Tropicana Field.
The stadium would be the centerpiece of a major redevelopment project similar to other recent “ballpark villages” in Atlanta and St. Louis, as the Rays’ new yard would be surrounded by new housing, shopping centers, restaurants, and entertainment venues. Nothing has been finalized about either the ballpark project or the larger revitalization project, as Sternberg said “We’re working at both and neither one is easy….The county and the city are really working beautifully together, so that’s part of the reason why we’re all optimistic.”
While the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season, there has long been a push from ownership to figure out a new ballpark situation sooner rather than later, with the Rays at one point even exploring an idea to split their home schedule between Tampa and Montreal (in new ballparks in both cities). However, it does now appear that at least some momentum seems to be building towards the Rays staying in St. Pete, which must count as some relief to fans after years of speculation about a possible move.
With the Athletics now on the verge of officially moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, Sternberg commented on the situation, saying that “It’s in all of baseball’s interests to have the A’s and any baseball team on the firmest footing possible.” By this same logic, Sternberg supported commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to waive a relocation fee, noting that to help a team regain stability, it doesn’t fit for the league “to say ‘Look, we’re going to let you move and your revenues are going to go up but we’re going to take them all from you.’ ”
In some Rays news on the field, the team will get some reinforcements back from the injured list starting tomorrow, when Zach Eflin will activated to start Sunday’s game against the White Sox. Eflin’s placement on the 15-day IL was retroactive to April 8, but since his bout of back tightness proved to be minor, he’ll be able to return on the first day of eligibility. After signing a three-year, $40MM free agent deal with Tampa Bay during the offseason, Eflin looked sharp in his first two starts with his new club, posting a 3.27 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk over 11 innings.
Jose Siri was also off to an impressive start before beginning an IL stint on April 8, as a hamstring strain put the center fielder on the sidelines. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Siri will be re-evaluated following a two-game minor league rehab assignment. Siri played the first of those two games yesterday as a DH with Triple-A Durham, and he’ll take today off before playing center field for Durham in Sunday’s contest.
If all goes well, Siri might be activated as early as Monday, when the Rays begin a series against Houston. By coincidence, the Astros were also the team who dealt Siri to Tampa last year at the trade deadline, and after showing his mettle as a defender, Siri has now started to break out at the plate. He hit .318/.333/.682 with two home runs in his first 24 plate appearances before suffering his hamstring strain.
Ryan Thompson also looks to be facing a “very minimal” IL stint, Cash said, which could mean the reliever might return from the 15-day injured list on April 28, when first eligible. Thompson suffered a right lat strain after posting a 3.18 ERA over his first 5 2/3 innings of work out of Tampa’s bullpen.
The timeline isn’t as clear for Tyler Glasnow, who was given an initial window of 6-to-8 weeks when he first suffered his Grade 2 oblique strain at the end of February. Cash said Glasnow was slated for two innings of live batting practice in extended Spring Training work on Monday, which comes on the heels of a pair of bullpen sessions earlier this month. The Rays are aiming for Glasnow to be ready by around the middle of May, once he is fully ramped up after missing such a big chunk of Spring Training work.
Rays Promote Taj Bradley, Place Zach Eflin On IL
The Rays have placed right-hander Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness, per broadcaster Neil Solondz. Pitching prospect Taj Bradley has been recalled to take his place and will make his major league debut on Wednesday. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times previously reported that these moves were imminent. Eflin’s IL placement is backdated to April 8, per Topkin.
Bradley, 22, was selected by the club in the fifth round of the 2018 draft. Since that time, he has continued to impress on the farm, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists. He pitched in Rookie Ball in 2018 and 2019, but then saw the minor leagues canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He split the following season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, throwing 103 1/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Last year, he went through Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 133 1/3 frames with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.2%.
Bradley is currently considered the #42 prospect in the game by Baseball America, #18 by MLB Pipeline, #60 by ESPN, #52 by Keith Law of The Athletic and #37 by FanGraphs. He was eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December but the Rays made the easy decision to add him to their 40-man roster to prevent him from being selected. That means he already has a roster spot but he’ll be making his MLB debut tomorrow.
The Rays are off to an incredible 10-0 start here this season, with their pitching playing a large role in that. They’ve only allowed 18 runs in those 10 games, easily the fewest in baseball with the Brewers next on the list at 26. Tampa’s schedule has been on the weaker side thus far, with their first nine games coming against the Tigers, Nationals and A’s, three of the worst teams last year. Nonetheless, they’ve gotten great results from their rotation, even with Shane Baz recovering from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Glasnow on the IL with an oblique strain. Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Eflin have all been great so far this season. Josh Fleming got roughed up in his first start but tossed four scoreless innings behind an opener in his second appearance.
Bradley will now check into that group for Eflin, at least for the time being. Solondz relays that manager Kevin Cash and Eflin both expect the latter to have a minimal stay on the IL, which would mean he’d only miss a couple of starts. The righty hasn’t exactly been a paragon of health in his career, as recurring knee issues have limited his workload over the years. He’s only once thrown 130 innings in a season, which was the 163 1/3 frames he tossed in 2019. He tells Topkin that he’s dealt with this back issue in the past and isn’t too concerned.
If those expectations come to pass and Eflin returns in a couple weeks, then it’s possible Bradley gets sent back down to Triple-A. That will likely depend on his performance, as well as that of Fleming and the health of the entire crew. There’s also the return of Glasnow on the horizon, which seems to potentially be slated for mid-May.
If it ends up coming to pass that Bradley sticks with the big league club for the rest of the season, he will be able to earn a full year of service time, just barely. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs only to spend 172 of those in the majors, or on the injured list, in order to earn a full “year” of service time. Bradley has missed 12 days of the season thus far, giving him just enough time to creep over the one-year line, though getting optioned later in the year will obviously impact that trajectory.
In the event he does get that full year, he will be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. As part of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, if a player has less than 60 days of service time and is on two out of the three top 100 prospects lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline then earns a full year of service as a rookie, they become PPI eligible. If they then win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting before reaching their arbitration years, they can net their club an extra draft pick. This already happened once when Julio Rodríguez won American League Rookie of the Year last year, getting the Mariners an extra draft pick after the first round. Bradley is on all three of those prospect lists and is therefore in the mix for earning PPI eligibility this year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rays Designate J.P. Feyereisen For Assignment, Expect To Trade Him
10:40am: At the press conference to introduce Eflin, general manager Peter Bendix said the Rays fully expect to find a trade partner for Feyereisen (Twitter link via Topkin).
9:58am: The Rays have designated right-hander J.P. Feyereisen for assignment in order to open a spot on then roster for right-hander Zach Eflin, whose previously reported three-year deal is now official.
While Feyereisen’s DFA might raise some eyebrows, given a sensational 2022 season in which he pitched 24 1/3 shutout innings for Tampa Bay with a 25-to-5 K/BB ratio, the decision comes less than a week after the right-hander required surgery to repair the labrum and rotator cuff in his ailing right shoulder. Feyereisen won’t throw a ball for at least four months and is expected to be shelved well into the 2023 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Feyereisen isn’t expected back until late August.
Prior to the 2022 season, Feyereisen had enjoyed success in the upper minors but displayed more red flags in the big leagues. A 2.73 ERA in 56 innings between the Brewers and the Rays in 2021 was clearly encouraging, but Feyereisen walked a whopping 14.1% of his opponents that season, making that output appear unsustainable. The Rays, however, managed to sharpen his command in 2022, as he fanned 29.1% of hitters against a tidy 5.8% walk rate. His career walk rate of 12% is still concerning, particularly when coupled with the recent shoulder operation, but Feyereisen clearly has the makings of a solid late-game reliever if he can sustain his improved 2022 command.
The Rays, of course, could have opted to keep Feyereisen on the 40-man roster and place him on the 60-day injured list when Spring Training commences — there’s no injured list in the offseason — but they’re in somewhat of a bind, given that Feyereisen is just one of several players ticketed for the 60-day IL when camp begins. Both Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge figure to require placement on the 60-day IL themselves, as each is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Waiting until Spring Training to make those moves would’ve effectively left the Rays working with a 37-man roster throughout the offseason.
Even with Feyereisen’s recent surgery, there’s a strong chance today’s DFA will spell the end of his time with the Rays. He has only two-plus years of MLB service time, meaning an acquiring team could control the 29-year-old righty for another four seasons. Even if he’ll miss a considerable portion of the 2023 season, there’s plenty of appeal in adding an arm of Feyereisen’s caliber, whether via a small trade or waiver claim, knowing he can be reasonably expected to be healthy for the 2024-26 seasons. The Rays clearly didn’t feel they had the luxury of rostering three immediate 60-day IL placements for the remainder of the offseason, but other clubs with greater flexibility won’t have such pressing concerns.
Rays To Sign Zach Eflin To Three-Year Deal
The Rays are dipping into the free agent pitching market, agreeing to terms with right-hander Zach Eflin on a three-year deal. It’s reportedly a $40MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025. The deal is pending a physical.
Eflin had spent his entire big league career with the Phillies. Originally drafted by the Padres, the Orlando native was dealt to the Dodgers and Phils during his time as a minor leaguer. He reached the majors by the middle of the 2016 campaign, bouncing on and off the MLB roster for the first couple seasons. Eflin struggled during his early big league looks, but he’d settled in as a capable mid-rotation arm by 2018.
That season, he made 24 starts and worked to a 4.36 ERA across 128 innings. That kicked off a remarkably consistent stretch of results. In each of the five seasons between 2018-22, Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36. Aside from a spike in strikeouts during the abbreviated 2020 season, he achieved those 3rd/4th starter results in a similar manner every year. He’s proven an excellent strike-thrower who misses bats at a slightly below-average level but keeps the ball on the ground at a solid clip.
Between 2019-21, Eflin worked to a 4.12 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a stellar 5.7% walk percentage. He’d been on a similar path to begin this season, posting a 4.37 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and a 5.3% walk rate through his first 13 starts. At the end of June, he landed on the injured list with a right knee contusion. That cost him over two months. By the time he was ready for reinstatement in early September, the Phils had limited time to build him back to a starter’s workload before year’s end. They expedited his return to the majors by plugging him in short relief. Eflin made seven appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season, then tossed 10 2/3 frames over 10 outings as a high-leverage arm during the Phils’ run to a National League pennant.
While Eflin doesn’t miss many bats, his blend of stellar control and a solid five-pitch mix allowed him to find a fair amount of success in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home environment. Against right-handed hitters, he leans primarily on a sinker in the 92-93 MPH range, but he turned to a four-seam fastball more often against lefties. Eflin mixes in a cutter and curveball as his usual secondary offerings, occasionally deploying a slider against righties as well. He rarely turns to a changeup, however, and he’s had his share of issues with left-handed batters. Southpaws have hit Eflin at a .274/.335/.492 clip since the start of 2018, but he’s stifled same-handed hitters to a .255/.291/.398 mark.
Tampa Bay surely has designs on plugging him back into the rotation after a healthy offseason. He’ll step in behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow in the pecking order, joining Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in what looks to be the season-opening starting five. The Rays have one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Taj Bradley, waiting in the wings after a great season in the upper minors. Shane Baz was expected to seize a rotation job himself, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming are on hand as rotation or multi-inning relief options for what should again be a strong Tampa Bay pitching staff.
If healthy, Eflin fits nicely into the middle of that group. At the same time, the Rays are placing a bet on a pitcher with a concerning injury history. The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career. He underwent a pair of surgeries to repair the patellar tendons in both his knees in the summer of 2016. At the time, Eflin acknowledged he’d battled chronic knee pain dating back to adolescence (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). He avoided any worrisome injuries for the next few seasons, but he went back under the knife in September 2021 to again repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. That cut his year short, meaning he’s lost chunks of three of the past six seasons to knee issues. There’s real risk in investing in a pitcher who has only once topped 130 MLB innings in a season.
The Rays were willing to look past that to add a pitcher who’s typically effective when healthy. Eflin’s also one of the younger arms available in free agency. He won’t turn 29 until next April, and a pitcher with his age and statistical track record may well have found four years on the open market if not for injury concerns. Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team that valued Eflin in this range, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Red Sox had made him the same offer. Eflin elected to join the Rays instead, signing closer to home and avoiding state income tax.
With an $11MM salary for next season, Eflin becomes the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster. He’ll lose that title in 2024, when Glasnow’s salary spikes to $25MM, but he’ll count for a significant portion of a Rays payroll that typically ranks among the league’s lowest. The Rays are now up to around $78MM in projected commitments for 2023, not far off their franchise-record $83MM mark from this past season. The overall $40MM guarantee represents the largest free agent investment in Rays history.
It also easily tops MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection of two years and $22MM for Eflin. The deal narrowly beats the three-year, $39MM guarantee Tyler Anderson received from the Angels last month. Anderson had rejected a qualifying offer and cost the Halos a draft choice. The Phils elected not to qualify Eflin. Philadelphia won’t receive any compensation for his departure, while the Rays won’t lose any picks to add him. To find Eflin’s replacement, Philadelphia can dip into a free agent rotation market that offers a number of options beyond the top trio of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Players like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea all remain on the market as strong candidates for multi-year deals.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rays and Eflin had agreed to a three-year deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the guarantee at $40MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the specific financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura
As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.
The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.
The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.
Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.
There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.
The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.
Zach Eflin Declines 2023 Mutual Option With Phillies
Right-hander Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option for the 2023 season, as per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Eflin will receive a $150K buyout and become a free agent for the first time in his career.
Since mutual options are almost never exercised by both player and team, Eflin’s decision isn’t surprising, even if his 2022 numbers were underwhelming. He tossed only 75 2/3 innings last season, as a right knee contusion led to a stint on the 60-day injured list, and Eflin’s move to the bullpen after his return in September. Building up to a full starter’s workload would have delayed Eflin’s return even longer, and he was able to contribute down the stretch (1.17 ERA in 7 2/3 IP) during the Phillies’ successful chase of a wild card berth, and then in the postseason. Eflin had a 3.38 ERA over 10 2/3 playoff innings, appearing in 10 games, and earning a save in the Phillies’ series-clinching win over the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.
While the bullpen stint was a nice silver lining to an injury-shortened year, Eflin and his reps at O’Connell Sports Management will certainly still market the right-hander as a solid starter. Eflin doesn’t turn 29 until April, and he has a 4.16 ERA over 531 2/3 innings with Philadelphia since the start of the 2018 season. While not a big strikeout pitcher, Eflin has posted consistently strong walk and hard-contact rates during his career, with particularly elite numbers in both categories in 2022.
Eflin’s age and track record line up well for a nice multi-year payday, though teams will also surely have some concerns about his injury history. Eflin’s IL stint this season represented the latest in a series of knee-related issues, as he previously had surgery on his right knee in 2021, and on both knees in 2016. It’s possible teams might look to include opt-out clauses, club options, or innings-based incentives clauses in any Eflin contract, but by that same token, an interested suitor might be able to full ahead by offering Eflin a more straight-forward deal with fewer conditional elements.
Depending on how the Phillies themselves feel about Eflin’s knee, a reunion could be possible. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez are slated as the top three in the Philadelphia rotation, with Bailey Falter penciled in for a larger role in 2023, and the likes of Hans Crouse and Michael Plassmeyer perhaps favored for innings until top prospects Andrew Painter and/or Mick Abel are ready for their MLB debuts. A Phillies team that looks to contend for another pennant might prefer more veteran stability in the starting mix, which could lead to some talks with Eflin, fellow free agent Kyle Gibson, or perhaps some bigger-name free agents or trade targets.
Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions
The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).
With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.
Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.
Locks
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Edwin Díaz (Mets)
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.
Possible Candidates
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.
Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.
Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.
One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.
- Mitch Haniger (Mariners)
Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.
Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.
- Andrew Heaney (Dodgers)
The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.
Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.
That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.
If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.
Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.
- Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.
Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.
- Taijuan Walker (Mets)
Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.
Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.
Longshots
- Mike Clevinger (Padres)
Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.
- Zach Eflin (Phillies)
Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.
- Sean Manaea (Padres)
San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.
- Jurickson Profar (Padres)
Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.
- Ross Stripling (Blue Jays)
Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox)
Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.
Ineligible
- José Abreu (White Sox)
- Josh Bell (Padres)
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees)
- Carlos Correa (Twins)
- Noah Syndergaard (Phillies)
- Justin Verlander (Astros)
All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ‘previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.
Phillies Reinstate Zach Eflin
The Phillies announced they’ve activated righty Zach Eflin from the 60-day injured list. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, Philadelphia recalled right-hander Mark Appel from Triple-A Lehigh Valley and placed him on the MLB 60-day IL.
Eflin returns to the active roster for the first time since June 26. The 28-year-old has been bothered by a right knee contusion, the continuation of career-long issues with the joint. He’s undergone surgery on the knee in both 2016 and ’21, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this time around, the club no doubt factored in his injury history in determining how quickly he could ramp back up. Eflin just began a minor league rehab assignment last Friday, tossing two innings and 27 pitches in Lehigh Valley. After one game, he’s ready to jump right back to the big leagues.
The rehab stint had to be expedited by the lack of time remaining on the regular season schedule. There’s a bit more than three weeks to play, and the 78-62 Phils are battling for their first postseason appearance in over a decade. Philadelphia is 1 1/2 games up on the Padres for the National League’s second Wild Card spot, with a three-game cushion between themselves and the only viable threat to bump them out of the playoff picture entirely, the Brewers.
There wasn’t sufficient time to build Eflin back to a traditional starter’s workload, so he’ll move into the bullpen for interim skipper Rob Thomson. Philadelphia’s relief corps has been middle-of-the-pack this season. That’s a marked improvement over the past couple years, but the Phils recently lost Corey Knebel for the season. Trade deadline acquisition David Robertson, Seranthony Domínguez (himself recently activated from the injured list) and Connor Brogdon have emerged as Thomson’s top right-handed options.
Working from the bullpen is unfamiliar territory for Eflin, who has started 115 of his 120 MLB appearances. He’s been a reliable mid-rotation arm for the majority of that time, posting an ERA between 3.97 and 4.37 in each of the past five years. Eflin has been one of the game’s most consistent strike-throwers, and while he hasn’t missed many bats, he’ll be one of the steadier rotation options available on this winter’s free agent market.
Appel’s season comes to an unfortunate early close. He’s battling inflammation in his throwing elbow, according to the club’s transactions log at MLB.com, and the 60-day minimum officially closes the books on his returning this year. Appel’s most recent appearance with Lehigh Valley came on September 3, and he landed on the minor league injured list not too long thereafter.
It’s a disappointing conclusion to the year, but 2022 has to go down as a resounding success for the former first overall pick. Appel never reached the big leagues with his original organization, the Astros, and he looked as if he’d never appear at the highest level after stepping away from the game following the 2017 campaign. Appel made a comeback effort last year, and he remained in the Philadelphia system this season. Appel earned his long-awaited first promotion in mid-June, and he finishes the season with 10 1/3 innings of two-run ball in the big leagues.
Philadelphia will pay Appel at the prorated $700K MLB minimum rate for the rest of the season to temporarily remove him from the 40-man roster. The 31-year-old is in his second of three minor league option years and can continue to bounce on and off the Phils active roster next season.
NL Injury Notes: Madrigal, Wisdom, Dominguez, Eflin, Wheeler, Bryant
The Cubs placed second baseman Nick Madrigal on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain, and activated Patrick Wisdom (left ring finger sprain) from the 10-day IL to fill the open roster spot. Madrigal suffered the injury in yesterday’s game, and given the lack of time remaining in the season, it isn’t out of the question that Madrigal might be shut down entirely. This is the second groin injury (the first strain was to Madrigal’s left groin) and third injury overall for the second baseman in 2022, after a back problem cost him three weeks in May.
Overall, Madrigal has played in only 59 games this season, only slightly topping the 54 games he played during a 2021 campaign that was shortened by hamstring surgery. While Madrigal is still eyed as the Cubs’ second baseman of the future, this health history is already concerning, and it’s fair to say that his injuries were certainly a factor in his .249/.305/.282 slash line in 228 PA this season. With the Cubs out of contention, their eyes are on 2023, and aren’t likely to push Madrigal back onto the field unless his current groin issue ends up being pretty minor.
Updates on other injury situations from around the National League…
- Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki) on several injured Philadelphia players, including two pitchers ready to return to the mound. Seranthony Dominguez will be activated prior to tomorrow’s game against the Nationals, after missing a little over three weeks due to right triceps tendinitis. Zach Eflin will be activated from the 60-day IL prior to Tuesday’s game, with Eflin possibly working as an opener as he embarks on a new role as a relief pitcher. Eflin has been out since late June due to knee problems, and with less time to ramp up for a starter’s workload, Philadelphia will instead use Eflin out of the bullpen. Zack Wheeler (forearm tendinitis) won’t be back until at least September 20, but Wheeler threw 15 pitches off a mound today, and Thomson said Wheeler will throw a proper bullpen session on Monday or Tuesday.
- Kris Bryant hasn’t played since July 31 due to plantar fasciitis, and Rockies manager Bud Black wasn’t sure if the slugger would be able to return before the season is over. “There is time but I don’t know if it’s going to happen…He hasn’t had a bat in his hand for a while, but he’s feeling much better,” Black told reporters, including The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders. Bryant has been able to play catch and lift weights now that he is no longer in a walking boot, though it remains to be seen when (or if) he’d be able to take part in fuller baseball activities. Between the platar fasciitis and two separate IL stints due to back injuries, Bryant’s first year with the Rockies has essentially been a lost season, with only 42 games played. The one bright spot is that Bryant at least hit well when he was able to play, contributing a .306/.376/.475 slash line and five homers in 181 plate appearances.