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Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Dave Dombrowski On Phillies’ Deadline Needs

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The Phillies are coming off a dreadful weekend, dealt a three-game sweep at the hands of the non-competitive Cubs. That dropped Philadelphia to 49-46, a game behind the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Having outscored opponents by 44 runs and with a firm win-now mentality, there’s no question the Phillies are nevertheless going to be motivated to upgrade the roster over the coming eight days in an effort to snap their decade-long playoff drought.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski addressed the team’s deadline outlook this evening, implying the club will look to add to the starting rotation (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). That seems directly tied to the health (or lack thereof) of right-hander Zach Eflin, who has spent the past month on the injured list due to another right knee issue. The 28-year-old hurler remains without a clear recovery timeline, and the Phils front office head intimated that uncertainty could lead them to look for back-end help. “I’d love for him to come back, but I don’t know when,” Dombrowski said of Eflin. “So I don’t think, from my perspective, that I can just say we’re going to wait for that to happen. I don’t think we can just sit here and wait to see what takes place.”

The Phillies landed one of the trade market’s top starters last summer, sending a prospect package centering on Spencer Howard to the Rangers for Kyle Gibson (and reliever Ian Kennedy). This year’s market features a trio of high-profile arms who, like Gibson at the time, come with a season and a half of remaining club control: Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. Given the organization’s urgency to compete after a series of underwhelming seasons and Dombrowski’s reputation for bold action, one could imagine the Phillies being in the market for that top trio. Dombrowski, however, suggested the Phils were reluctant to deal from the top of their farm system this summer.

“Every position there’s premium guys out there, and then there’s other guys that could be helpful,” he said (via Lauber). “Well, the premium guys are probably going to cost you your top prospects. I don’t think, as an organization, we’re in that position right now. I just don’t think we’re there.” The Phils had four players — right-handers Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry and catcher Logan O’Hoppe — on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects update. Painter was the only member of that group to check in among the top 50.

For any team to land Castillo, Montas or Mahle, they’ll certainly have to deal at least one player from the upper tier of their system. Dombrowski’s comments would seem to suggest the Phils could look towards the market for back-end starters and/or pitchers who are impending free agents, but as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last week, a good chunk of that group has either slumped lately or comes with some questions about their availability in trade. Dombrowski suggested the asking price even for role players has remained high in discussions with teams thus far, although he opined that selling clubs will reduce their demands as the August 2 trade deadline draws nearer.

Beyond the rotation, the Phils have had longstanding issues in center field and in the bullpen. As Matt Gelb of the Athletic explores in greater detail, the roster spots of Odúbel Herrera and/or Jeurys Familia could be in jeopardy if the Phils can find upgrades at those positions. Herrera, re-signed to a $1.75MM guarantee during Spring Training after the club declined a costlier team option, has hit only .240/.280/.389 through 186 plate appearances. Herrera, Matt Vierling and Mickey Moniak have all struggled again, and the Phils carried a league-worst .202/.254/.296 showing out of center field into play Monday night.

Gelb writes that the Phillies would like to add a left-handed hitter capable of playing center field, but the number of attainable players who fit that profile is limited. 26 left-handed or switch-hitters have taken at least 50 plate appearances as a center fielder this season. The vast majority all either come with extended windows of remaining club control, play for teams that are currently in the thick of the playoff race and/or are enduring dismal seasons of their own. Speculatively speaking, the Cubs’ Rafael Ortega (owner of a .232/.327/.348 line through 265 plate appearances) might offer the best blend of decent 2022 production and attainability for a minimal prospect cost.

The bullpen, meanwhile, has been a middle-of-the-pack group on the year. They’ve been excellent of late after a disappointing start, posting a 2.69 ERA through the past 30 days. Given the Phils’ longstanding relief issues, however, Dombrowski and his staff figure to explore ways to add another arm to the mix. Familia, signed to a $6MM deal over the offseason, has continued to struggle of late and owns just a 4.83 ERA/3.81 SIERA across 31 2/3 frames on the season.

Two areas the Phillies don’t seem they’ll need to address via trade are second base and the corner outfield/designated hitter. They’ve been without Jean Segura and Bryce Harper due to respective finger fractures, but both players are progressing well in their recoveries. Segura is set to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley tomorrow, and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes that the second baseman is hopeful of returning to the big league roster by the time the club kicks off a homestead August 4 against the Nationals. That’d be an ahead-of-schedule return for Segura, who was projected to miss 10-12 weeks after undergoing surgery in early June.

Harper is further behind, having suffered his injury in late June, but he tells reporters he’s hopeful of getting the pins removed from his surgically-repaired thumb next week. The reigning NL MVP reiterated that he fully expects to play again this season, and Dombrowski noted (via Lauber) that Harper’s injury “is not one of those where it’s [going to be] long enough that you go out and trade for someone that’s going to take that position.” Harper had been limited to DH duty before his thumb fracture because of a partial UCL tear in his elbow that rendered him unable to throw. He acknowledged he’ll have to go through a throwing program and expressed some hope he could get back into the outfield before the end of the year. Even if Harper were to wind up limited to bat-only duties, the Phils would happily plug Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber into the corner outfield if it meant getting Harper back in the lineup for the season’s final month-plus.

Virtually every win-now executive will face some questions about the game’s highest-profile trade candidate over the next week. Yet between their glut of corner outfielders and stated reluctance to deal top-tier young talent, the Phillies would’ve made for a tough fit in the Juan Soto bidding even if the Nationals make him available to intra-division rivals. Dombrowski didn’t address Soto directly, but he more or less shot down any speculation about that possibility. Asked whether they’ll look into adding a “generational talent,” Dombrowski replied “I don’t know that we’re swimming in that market. I love star players. I always have. I have acquired a lot of them. I know [owner] John Middleton likes that. But we do have some star players. I think the problem we’ve had is the depth of talent in our organization. To strip the depth of our talent to add a generational talent, I don’t know that is where we sit at this point.“

Phillies Recall Bailey Falter

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The Phillies have recalled southpaw Bailey Falter from Triple-A, per the team. In a corresponding move, JoJo Romero was optioned to Triple-A.

This is a small roster move for the Phillies that nevertheless represents a larger problem for the roster: starting rotation depth. For most of this season, the Phillies five-man rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin, and Ranger Suarez has been healthy and effective. Phillies’ starters rank first in the Majors by the measure of fWAR. But at the end of June, both Suarez and Eflin landed on the injured list. Suarez is now back, but as for Eflin, questions remain.

The Phillies have no timetable for when Eflin might return to the active roster, per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Eflin’s dealing with a knee that’s twice been surgically repaired in the last six years. Eflin’s timetable could swing the Phillies decision-making strategy regarding the upcoming trade deadline, notes Gelb. If he’s not looking any better in the next week so, Philadelphia could feel encouraged to make a move for a starting pitcher.

The NL East has become a bit of a two-team conversation between the Mets and Braves, but the Phillies still have time to elbow their way into the race. If nothing else, they’re firmly in contention for a wild card spot. This team has been pushing hard for years to make the postseason, and there’s no reason to think they’re going to take their foot off the gas now. If indeed they are intent on making a postseason run, then acquiring some rotation insurance should be pretty high up on their list of trade deadline targets.

For now, Falter will step into the rotation. The 25-year-old lefty has made nine appearances for the Phillies this season, five of them starts, with a 4.82 ERA/5.37 FIP across 28 innings. He’s been stellar through seven starts in Triple-A, posting a 1.56 ERA/2.46 FIP over 34 2/3 innings.

Injury Notes: Montas, Brantley, Eflin, Springs, Beeks, May

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With the trade deadline approaching, Frankie Montas’ health status is of particular interest to both the Athletics and several other teams around baseball.  The right-hander tossed just one inning on July 3 and hasn’t pitched since, due to shoulder inflammation.  The A’s resisted placing Montas on the 15-day injured list, and it seems as though he could return as early as Thursday, when Oakland opens the second half with a doubleheader against the Tigers.

Montas received a cortisone shot as part of his recovery, and things went “really well” during a bullpen session yesterday, A’s manager Mark Kotsay told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and other reporters.  The club will continue to observe Montas over the All-Star break, but for now, it would seem like Montas is on pace to get back onto the mound.  Assuming regular rest, Montas would be on pace to make at least two starts prior to the August 2 deadline, though it’s also possible the Athletics could rest him if a trade is close.

More injury notes from around baseball…

  • Right shoulder discomfort sent Michael Brantley to the 10-day IL back on June 27, but the Astros outfielder still “didn’t feel right” while trying to swing last Thursday, manager Dusty Baker said.  “Right now, he’s in the same spot, no worse….That was the shoulder he got operated on years ago.  He’s still a little sore,” Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters.  Brantley had shoulder surgeries in both 2015 and 2016, which limited him to only 11 games in 2016 and also delayed his return in 2017.  There isn’t yet any sense that this current injury is anywhere near as serious, however, though speculatively, Houston could perhaps look out for outfield help at the deadline should they have any longer-term concerns over Brantley’s health.
  • Zach Eflin threw a simulated game yesterday, but Phillies manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that Eflin came out of the session feeling a little sore, and team doctors will examine him tomorrow.  Eflin was placed on the 15-day IL on June 26 due to a right knee bruise, and Eflin is another player with a lengthy surgical history, as the righty underwent knee procedures in both 2016 and 2021.
  • Rays manager Kevin Cash updated reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) about a pair of pitching injuries, noting that Jeffrey Springs is expected to be activated during the Rays’ first series after the All-Star break.  Springs’ placement on the 15-day IL (for tightness in his lower right leg) was retroactive to July 7, so the southpaw looks like he’ll miss just the minimum amount of time.  Cash also thinks Jalen Beeks will miss only 15 days, after Beeks went to the IL just today with a similar leg injury.
  • Dustin May threw two innings of Arizona Complex League action yesterday, marking the first in-game action in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in May 2021.  May’s minor league rehab assignment is expected to last at least a month, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett writes, but he could be an option for the Dodgers down the stretch.  As president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman recently told Plunkett and other reporters, “our plan is to build [May] up, have him start for us and then evaluate as we go,” possibly adjusting usage based on the Dodgers’ needs (in the regular season or the playoffs) and May’s health.

Injury Notes: Suarez, Soto, Montas

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The Phillies have placed starter Ranger Suarez on the 15-day injured list because of lower back spasms, retroactive to June 30, per the club. The Phillies had boasted one of the healthier rotations this season before losing both Suarez and Zach Eflin to the injured list this week. A corresponding roster move will likely be made before Tuesday’s game against the Nationals. The Phillies have an off day tomorrow to set up their rotation. In other injury news…

  • Juan Soto left today’s Nationals’ game with an apparent hamstring injury. It was later revealed to be tightness in Soto’s left calf that prompted his departure. He will have an MRI and be re-evaluated tomorrow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Obviously, it would be crushing for the Nationals to lose Soto for any amount of time. Even with him, the Nats don’t have much hope for postseason play, but Soto remains the best and brightest attraction at Nats Park.
  • Athletics starter Frankie Montas left today’s start early after seeing a drop in velocity, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Montas’ heater was 2.4 mph slower than usual, while his sinker was 2.7 mph slower on average, notes Gallegos. The initial diagnosis is inflammation, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, but they will need more time to evaluate. Not only is Montas Oakland’s nominal ace, but he’s been one of the more sought-after arms when it comes to the August 2nd trade deadline. A significant arm injury would obviously derail any plans to use the righty as a trade chip.

Injury Notes: Eflin, Brantley, Woodruff, Polanco

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The Phillies placed starter Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 26, with a bruised right knee. Outfielder Oscar Mercado, claimed off waivers from the Guardians yesterday, has been added to the active roster in a corresponding move. Eflin told reporters he’s hopeful he could return after a minimal IL stay, which would only cost him two starts (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). The 28-year-old underwent surgery on both knees back in 2016, and he underwent another procedure to correct patellar issues in his right knee last September. His current injury doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as concerning, but the Phillies figure to be particularly cautious in bringing him back given that history.

An impending free agent, Eflin has made 13 starts this season. He owns a 4.37 ERA over 68 innings, striking out 19.6% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 5.3% walk rate. That kind of strike-throwing stability has made the former Padres farmhand a reliable member of the Philadelphia rotation for the past six-plus years. The Phils plan to recall left-hander Bailey Falter to start Friday night’s game in Eflin’s place, tweets Matt Gelb of the Athletic.

Some other injured list moves from around the game:

  • The Astros placed left fielder Michael Brantley on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 27, due to right shoulder discomfort. Chas McCormick, who’d been optioned over the weekend, has been recalled to take his place on the active roster. (Position players typically need to spend a minimum of ten days in the minors after being optioned, but they can be recalled earlier if replacing an injured player). Brantley downplayed  any long-term concerns, telling reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) he was hopeful he could make it back after a brief stint. The 35-year-old continues to perform very well at the plate, carrying a .288/.370/.416 line through 277 plate appearances this season.
  • The Brewers welcomed a pair of key contributors back from the injured list this evening. Righty Brandon Woodruff and second baseman Kolten Wong have each been reinstated, with Trevor Kelley and Pablo Reyes optioned out in corresponding moves. Woodruff will get the start during today’s game with the Rays, while Wong steps back in at the keystone. It’s the first MLB start in a month for Woodruff, who’s been out while dealing with a high ankle sprain and some hand numbness stemming from Raynaud’s syndrome. Wong has been out for three weeks on account of a calf strain.
  • Between games of today’s doubleheader with the Guardians, the Twins brought back second baseman Jorge Polanco from the injured list. Outfielder Mark Contreras was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul to open active roster space. The switch-hitting Polanco is hitting fifth for the nightcap against Cleveland. He missed a little less than two weeks with some lower back tightness. Through 250 plate appearances, Polanco is hitting .245/.340/.389 with seven home runs. His return figures to push Luis Arraez back to first base and designated hitter, perhaps freeing Alex Kirilloff to see more time in left field. Minnesota lost primary left fielder Trevor Larnach to a core muscle injury over the weekend; he’s undergoing surgery and expected to miss six weeks.

Phillies, Zach Eflin Avoid Arbitration

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8:21pm: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the financial breakdown (on Twitter): a $5.5MM base salary with a $150K buyout on next season’s mutual option. Eflin would receive an additional $50K apiece for reaching 100 and 125 innings pitched, $75K for 150 innings, and a final $125K at 175 innings.

4:37pm: The Phillies and starter Zach Eflin have reached agreement on a contract to avoid arbitration, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (on Twitter). Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (Twitter link) that Eflin will be guaranteed $5.7MM, and the deal contains an additional $300K in possible performance bonuses. The contract also contains a mutual option for 2023 valued at $15MM, per Nightengale. Eflin is a client of O’Connell Sports Management.

Agreeing to terms avoids the necessity of a hearing for Eflin, who was eligible for arbitration for a final time. His camp had filed for a $6.9MM salary, while the team was seeking a $5.15MM figure. Eflin’s guarantee comes in a bit shy of the $6.025MM midpoint, but he could more or less reach that mark were he to trigger all the performance bonuses.

Arbitration salaries are typically determined over the offseason, with whatever hearings prove necessary commonly occurring in February. This past offseason’s lockout froze league business for 99 days, however, pushing some hearings into the regular season. That’s not a desirable setup for anyone, and the Phils and Eflin are both surely happy to avoid that process. Philadelphia’s arbitration class is now wrapped up.

Eflin, 28, is set to hit free agency for the first time next season. The sinkerballer will be one of the younger arms available, and he’s settled in as a reliably effective mid-rotation arm. Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36 each season from 2018-21. He consistently posted walk rates a few points lower than the league average while inducing strikeouts and grounders at slightly above-average marks. On a rate basis, that’s quality annual production.

Coupled with his youth, that kind of steadiness should make Eflin one of the better arms in next winter’s free agent class. The only real concern would seem to be his health history, as he’s dealt with chronic issues in both knees throughout his career. 2016 surgery on both joints alleviated the problems for a while, but Eflin dealt with renewed patellar troubles in his right knee late last season. That culminated in another procedure last September, one that cut his season short.

Eflin has stayed healthy (aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 injured list) thus far in 2022. He’s off to a typically solid start, posting a 3.65 ERA through 37 innings. The right-hander has a roughly league average 23% strikeout rate and 45.9% ground-ball percentage, while his 4.6% walk rate is among the league’s best. He has joined Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson and Ranger Suárez to comprise one of baseball’s top starting staffs.

The inclusion of the mutual option theoretically raises the possibility of Eflin avoiding the open market altogether, but those are rarely exercised by both parties. Rather, they’re typically an accounting measure designed to push the payment of some salary back a few months — in the form of a postseason buyout on the option, rather than as salary to be dispersed regularly throughout the season. If Eflin stays healthy and productive all season, he’s likely to decline his end of the option in search of a multi-year deal on the open market.

Phillies Place Zach Eflin, Zack Wheeler On Covid List

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10:00am: Phillies manager Joe Girardi has told reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that Zack Wheeler is also going on the Covid list. The club will now be doubly challenged to get through their next stretch of games with their rotation down two key members. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com adds that Connor Brogdon will be taking Wheeler’s spot on the roster.

9:00 am: The Phillies have announced that right-hander Zach Eflin has been placed on the Covid-related injured list. Fellow righty Francisco Morales has been recalled to take his place on the roster. Additionally, with the club playing a doubleheader today, left-hander Cristopher Sanchez will be up with the club as the team’s 27th man.

Players can be placed on the Covid list if they test positive, are exhibiting symptoms or due to contact tracing measures. The club hasn’t provided further information about which of these applies to Eflin. Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club, though it’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician). Players who are experiencing symptoms but do not test positive can return in shorter order if their symptoms abate.

The Phillies were rained out both yesterday and Friday, meaning their pitching staff should be fairly rested, but also that they are playing a doubleheader today. They will then be traveling out west to play three games against the Mariners and four against the Dodgers, before their next off-day on May 16th. As long as Eflin is out of action, the rotation will be down to the foursome of Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler. Sanchez and Morales both have started in the minors but have been working out of their bullpen so far this year.

Gibson should be able to handle one game today, as he last started April 30. Eflin would have been in line to start the other game but will need to be replaced. Suarez last pitched on May 3, meaning he could theoretically slot in and take another game on regular rest, although the club hasn’t yet another their plans for today. In that scenario, both Gibson and Suarez would be lined up to pitch again on regular rest on Friday. Wheeler and Nola can then take the ball on Monday and Tuesday, but then the club would need a plan for both Wednesday and Thursday. Another option would be to have a bullpen day in the second game of the doubleheader today, saving Suarez for Monday and bumping Wheeler and Nola down the line. Regardless of how it plays out, the club will need to strategically maneuver through the week, unless Eflin is able to return quickly.

NL Notes: Eflin, Lauer, DeJong

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Due to the lockout putting MLB business on ice for over three months, there are many players who don’t yet have a finalized salary for the 2022 campaign. Any arbitration-eligible players that couldn’t come to an agreement with their team will soon participate in a hearing as the season is in progress. The Phillies have one such player, right-hander Zach Eflin, who is hoping for a $6.9MM figure while the club will be arguing for the lower figure of $5.15MM. (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected $6MM, a number pretty close to the midpoint between the two parties.)

Eflin recently spoke about the situation to Matt Gelb of the Athletic. “I know what I bring to this club every fifth day,” Eflin said. “And I see my true value more than what their offer was. So that’s really all I have to say. I’m curious to see what they have to say in a courtroom. So, it’ll be interesting, but I’m looking forward to it.”

If the pitcher is particularly motivated for this fight, it’s possible that he’s still holding a grudge from an incident in 2019. The Phillies optioned Eflin, despite the fact that he was pitching well, in order to get an extra bench player on the roster. They had a double-header coming up that week, which lined up with Eflin’s upcoming start. Since teams are allowed to bring up an extra player for double-headers, they were able to option Eflin, call him up as the extra man for the double-header and then call him up for real for the start after that. Because of these roster shenanigans, Eflin ended up missing out on nine days of MLB salary, costing him about $20K. (According to this Gelb piece from the time of the incident.) “Players don’t forget that,” Eflin said in today’s article. “I’m looking forward to the hearing and seeing what they have to say about me. I feel like I’m going to learn a lot about the business side of the game.” The 28-year-old is heading into free agency at the end of this season.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • After a disappointing 2020 season, Eric Lauer began 2021 at the Brewers’ alternate training site. “I wasn’t super happy about it,” Lauer told Will Sammon of The Athletic. However, the lefty used the opportunity to do some experimenting, taking some time in a bullpen session to mimic the mechanics of other pitchers, such as Aroldis Chapman and Tim Lincecum. To his surprise and delight, his velocity starting ticking up. That extra gas helped propel Lauer to an excellent bounceback campaign, as he ended up throwing 118 2/3 innings of 3.19 ERA ball last year, with a 23.9% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. The results are even better in Lauer’s four starts so far this year. Small sample caveats apply, but he has a 1.93 ERA with an incredible 36.6% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. Brewers fans, or any baseball fan interested in the art of pitching, will want to check out the full piece for more details on Lauer’s tremendous turnaround.
  • Cardinals’ infield prospect Nolan Gorman is off to a tremendous start to his season. The 21-year-old (22 next week) already has 11 home runs through 20 Triple-A games and is hitting .321/.372/.769 overall. That has led to a chorus of voices among fans in St. Louis for him to be called up, especially with a few of the big leaguers struggling. Shortstop Paul DeJong has been under the spotlight for his shortcomings at the plate for a few years now. His overall offensive production has declined in each season of his career, according to wRC+. After a 123 in his rookie year in 2017, he’s put up a 103, 101, 87, 86 and a 55 in 2022 so far. Prior to the 2018 campaign, the club signed DeJong to an extension that runs through 2023. Despite that, he doesn’t have unlimited rope with the organization. “We’re still trying to figure out what we have here with (DeJong), so we’re trying to give him every opportunity possible,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Katie Woo of The Athletic. “If things don’t change trajectory or direction, then ultimately we’re probably going to have to do something different. Nolan would get more of a maj0r-league opportunity at that point. I think we have to remind ourselves that we’re a month into the season; we’ve had an odd first couple of weeks with weather and obviously a truncated spring training. You’re seeing a lot of offensive stats down in general in this league, so we want to remain patient.” The plan to merely switch Gorman in for DeJong is complicated, however, by the fact that the Cardinals are an organization that values defense so highly. As noted in the piece, Gorman only recently switched from being a primary third baseman to playing second base, as he’s blocked at third by Nolan Arenado. Bringing Gorman up to man the keystone would involve sliding Tommy Edman over to shortstop, a position where he only has 17 games of MLB experience. For the time being, it seems Cardinals’ fans yearning for Gorman’s promotion will have to keep waiting.

Zach Eflin To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Phillies starter Zach Eflin will require surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his right knee, the team announced this afternoon. The procedure is expected to keep Eflin out of game action for six-to-eight months, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). That leaves open the possibility he could be ready for Opening Day in 2022, but it’s far from certain that’ll be the case.

Eflin has been plagued by knee issues for a large chunk of his career. Late in 2016, the right-hander underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendons in both knees. Afterwards, Eflin told Zolecki the procedures corrected chronic issues that had plagued him for more than a decade. He avoided knee troubles for the next few years, but issues with the joint cropped back up this summer.

The Phils placed Eflin on the injured list on July 20 because of patellar tendinitis. He was activated from the IL five weeks later but was scratched from what would have been his first start because of continued discomfort, followed shortly thereafter by a positive COVID-19 test. While Eflin recovered from the virus rather quickly, his rehab was delayed by continued knee pain that’ll apparently require another surgery to correct.

Losing Eflin for the rest of the season (and potentially a portion of next year) is a substantial blow for a Phillies’ team that has struggled to find reliable back-of-the-rotation innings in recent years. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola make for a fearsome top two, and Philadelphia picked up Kyle Gibson at the trade deadline to bolster the middle of the rotation. But Vince Velasquez has been up-and-down for essentially his entire career, and offseason pickups Matt Moore and Chase Anderson haven’t panned out. (Anderson has already been released).

Those depth issues have forced the Phillies to bump Ranger Suárez into a starting role. Suárez had a fantastic season working in relief and has fared well so far in his attempt to carry that success over to the rotation. Through seven starts, the left-hander has a 1.71 ERA despite some struggles with walks, thanks largely to an elite 63.1% ground-ball rate. Suárez figures to continue getting turns for the remainder of the year, but Philadelphia will have to patch things together on the mound when they need a fifth starter.

Eflin, unlike many of the Phillies’ other starters, has been a measure of consistency in recent years. Excepting a spike in last year’s shortened campaign, the 27-year-old has generally posted league average strikeout numbers. But he’s one of the game’s best at limiting walks and he keeps the ball on the ground, allowing him to be reliably effective in spite of his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Eflin has posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36 in each of the past four seasons, including a 4.17 mark over 105 2/3 innings this year.

Last offseason, Eflin and the Phillies agreed on a $4.45MM salary for 2021 to avoid arbitration. He’ll likely be in line for a moderate raise on that figure this winter, as he enters his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. Assuming his recovery proceeds as anticipated, Eflin’s projected salary would still seem reasonable for his typically solid production. But he could be a non-tender candidate if he’s not progressing on schedule come November, as he’d reach free agency after next season anyhow.

Solidifying the back of the rotation was likely to be an offseason priority for the Phillies even before news of Eflin’s surgery. That’ll be all the more true now, although there’s little recourse but to rely on the internal options for the remainder of this season as they hope to mount a playoff push. The Phillies enter play tonight two and a half games back of the Braves in the NL East and two games behind the Reds and Padres for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.

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