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Winter Meetings Preview: Rangers, Rockies

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In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams out west…

  • The Texas Rangers have their sights laser-focused on Anthony Rendon, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Recent additions have more-or-less locked their rotation class, with Kolby Allard, Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke looking like the 5 through 7 options behind Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Should prices drop on starters like Dallas Keuchel or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Rangers could add further pitching in the right deal and potentially explore flipping Lynn or Minor, tweets Grant, though that’s less a strategy and more of the “open to anything” ethos employed by most front offices. Otherwise, the group of internal candidates, if expanded, would include Taylor Hearn and Tyler Phillips, plus any vets they are able to grab on minor league deals in the mold of Edinson Volquez (though Volquez himself is more likely ticketed for the pen if he makes the team). The Rangers reportedly offered Zack Wheeler a $100MM contract before he signed with Philadelphia, so the pursestrings have been loosed. For now, however, they’re stuck in traffic waiting to see if the “Adrian Beltre treatment” can sell Rendon on playing the latter half of his career in Arlington. 
  • The Colorado Rockies need for starting pitching is clear, but they are highly unlikely to walk away from the winter meetings with a new arm atop their rotation, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Irrespective of the financial crunch – which is significant and detailed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook – the history of Coors Field continues to scare away free agent pitchers. Not to mention, the haunted past of big-ticket hurlers signed by past regimes in Colorado is no less an impediment to building through free agency. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, and Darryl Kile can all profess their tale of woe, but Kile’s case is particularly damning given the success he enjoyed in St. Louis once freed from Coors. Speculatively speaking, the Rockies aversion/inability to add frontline pitching via free agency could be a factor in their bearish resistance to trading Jon Gray. If internal development is the only path to roster improvement, trading a talent like Gray would be an even greater white-flag move than under most circumstances.

Pitcher Notes: Hamels, Phils, Wheeler, Twins, Bundy, Lindblom

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The latest pitcher-relates news from around baseball…

  • Left-hander Cole Hamels said earlier this offseason he’d be open to a return to Philadelphia, where he thrived at the beginning of his career. Hamels wound up accepting the division-rival Braves’ one-year, $18MM offer on Wednesday, but the Phillies were among his suitors before then. They put forth a one-year proposal worth roughly half what Hamels got from the Braves, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Hamels turned down a return to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the starter-needy Phillies made a much bigger splash to improve their rotation Wednesday, as they agreed to sign ex-Met Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM pact.
  • The Twins were also among the most ardent teams in pursuit of Wheeler, according to La Velle E. Neal of the Star Tribune. They offered Wheeler a five-year, $100MM offer, but the Phillies upended them. Had Wheeler taken the Twins’ offer, it would have been the richest in franchise history. Now, even after Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, they’re still in clear need of starting help. Odorizzi and Jose Berrios are the only sure things for Minnesota’s 2020 rotation, meaning we probably haven’t seen the last of the team’s starting pursuits this winter. Indeed, the Twins seem to be aggressively going after free-agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner.
  • The Angels and Orioles swung a headline-grabbing trade Wednesday, when Los Angeles acquired righty Dylan Bundy from Baltimore. Even after picking up Bundy, the Angels remain “in the market for pitching,” said general manager Billy Eppler (via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). As for the non-contending Orioles, in parting with Bundy, they took “a big step toward our stated goals to accumulate and develop as much young talent as possible as the club rebuilds its roster and gets our talent level back to the level needed for consistent playoff contention,” per GM Mike Elias (via Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com).
  • Korea Baseball Organization right-hander Josh Lindblom officially became a free agent Wednesday, the Yonhap News Agency relays. Lindblom was terrific as a member of the KBO’s Doosan Bears from 2018-19, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained. Before that, he was unremarkable in the majors from 2011-17 with several teams. However, Lindblom’s KBO performance could overshadow his MLB history as he seeks a big league contract this offseason.

Astros Still Involved In Zack Wheeler Market

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The Astros are among the teams still pursuing free agent righty Zack Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Houston’s interest has long been known, but it wasn’t clear whether the club had staid in the bidding.

Entering the day, one Texas ballclub was known to be pursuing Wheeler. That still holds true, though the team’s identity has changed. It emerged earlier today that the Rangers are no longer involved.

To call Wheeler’s market robust would be an understatement. If reports are true, he’s already sitting on a baseline offer of five-year, $100MM (or more). It seems the only question is whether some organization will push much further north in terms of AAV or guaranteed years.

It’s interesting to see the ’Stros staying in this market even as it reaches greater heights than most anticipated. The club has strongly indicated a desire to drop below the luxury tax line and will need to drop some salary obligations to do so. Adding Wheeler would only add to the intrigue.

Rangers Out On Zack Wheeler

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The Rangers have been bumped from the bidding on righty Zack Wheeler, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The market is beginning to move quickly for the former Mets hurler.

With the Texas organization out of the hunt, there’s greater clarity in the likely outcomes. Right now, the Phillies, Reds, and White Sox are by all accounts pushing hard to land Wheeler. The status of other interested clubs — the Blue Jays, Angels, and Twins — is still up in the air.

What’s next for the Rangers isn’t known. Grant surveys the remaining options but says it’s not yet clear whether the team has interest in the next level of rotation options. Running down the line on our ranking of the top 50 free agents, lefties Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the top remaining alternatives. Michael Pineda remains an interesting potential target. It’s also possible the Rangers could go for a sturdy veteran such as Cole Hamels or Dallas Keuchel. And there are quite a few alternatives yet further down the market spectrum.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.

Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

AL Notes: Lindor, Wheeler, Yanks, Twins

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Let’s take a quick look around the American League…

  • Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is a prominent trade candidate, at least speculatively. However, as you’d expect, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pry the superstar out of Cleveland. The Indians would have to be “overwhelmed” by an offer in order to part with the 26-year-old four-time All-Star this offseason, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. Lindor has just two years of control left and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension, meaning there’s a case the Indians should strongly consider trading him before next season. However, the perennial contenders apparently want to see how they fare coming out of the gate next season before deciding Lindor’s future, Hoynes suggests. If that’s the case, we may not see a Lindor trade until at least around next July’s trade deadline.
  • Right-hander Zack Wheeler has become popular on the open market, but it doesn’t appear the longtime Met will be sticking in New York. Although the Yankees have shown interest in the hard-throwing Wheeler, they seemingly aren’t willing to hand him a nine-figure contract, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Signs are pointing to the 29-year-old Wheeler landing a contract worth at least $100MM, so if the Yankees don’t want to go there, they’ll likely have to look elsewhere for starting help.
  • Righty Matt Wisler, whom the Twins claimed off waivers from the Mariners in October, will make just over $700K in 2020, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. That looks like a rather team-friendly amount for the out-of-options Wisler, who had been projected to earn $1MM next season. The 27-year-old Wisler, a former top prospect, divided last season between Seattle and San Diego and logged a 5.61 ERA/4.23 FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates of 11.05 and 2.81 across 51 1/3 innings.

Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Rangers Met Recently With Anthony Rendon

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The Rangers missed the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, but with a new ballpark set to open next season, it appears they’re serious about returning to contention immediately. The Rangers gave right-handed starter Kyle Gibson a three-year, $30MM guarantee last week, though that deal could pale in comparison to the highest award they dole out this winter. The club’s in pursuit of the best free-agent position player on the market in third baseman Anthony Rendon, as it met with him and agent Scott Boras in Houston on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The Rangers haven’t made a contract offer yet, per Grant, but “several executives” have indicated they’re the favorites to sign him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today sports tweets.

Signing Rendon would likely mean doling out a guarantee well above $200MM, though it could help the Rangers’ cause that he’s a Texas native. Rendon’s by far the best unsigned third baseman in the game, but between their interest in him and Josh Donaldson, it’s clear the Rangers are serious about finding their first great option at the position since potential Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre retired after the 2018 season.

Texas, however, isn’t just considering a splash at the hot corner. Rather, the Rangers could pick up yet another high-profile starter even after signing Gibson. It’s “believed” that they’ve recently met with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, according to Grant. Wheeler, who could cost around $100MM in free agency, would add another formidable arm to a rotation that has taken an obvious step forward with the acquisition of Gibson. Those two would presumably join Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Kolby Allard to give the Rangers a rather imposing top five heading into 2020.

Latest On Twins, Zack Wheeler

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Minnesota’s among the teams chasing free agent Zack Wheeler, but the Twins haven’t made the right-hander an offer yet, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News reports. However, Wolfson suggests it’s only a matter of time before that will change. The club reportedly met with Wheeler’s representatives earlier this month.

Whether it’s Minnesota or another team that winds up signing Wheeler, it may have to fork over a nine-figure contract for the former Met. An executive told Dan Hayes of The Athletic that Wheeler should be able to land a five-year deal worth between $100MM and $110MM. A contract worth $100MM or more for Wheeler wouldn’t be particularly surprising, as MLBTR predicted he’d land exactly that much when the offseason got underway three weeks ago.

It obviously remains to be seen whether the Twins will be the team that emerges on top in the bidding for Wheeler, but the reigning AL Central champions’ need for starting pitching is obvious. Righty Jake Odorizzi made the somewhat surprising decision to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer earlier this month, thus patching a hole for the team, but he and Jose Berrios are the only proven rotation options penciled in for next year. The Twins lost free agent Kyle Gibson to the Rangers on Wednesday, while both Michael Pineda and Martin Perez are currently on the open market.

Odorizzi’s decision represents an instance in which the Twins have benefited from the qualifying offer system, though it’ll hurt them a bit if they sign Wheeler (or fellow standout free-agent pitchers Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Madison Bumgarner). Adding a single free agent who rejected a QO, as Wheeler, Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner did, would cost Minnesota its third-highest draft pick in 2020. Of course, that shouldn’t be a prohibitive price for a club that likely expects to reign over its division again next year and compete for a World Series.

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