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Robbie Ray

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners

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The Blue Jays brought back Robbie Ray on a one-year, $8MM deal today, but recent history suggests they could still add more to the rotation writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Davidi notes that the Jays struck early last year in signing Chase Anderson, but that certainly didn’t slow their free agent activity. The Jays do seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Tanner Roark more-or-less guaranteed to hold down rotation spots. Ross Stripling can also hang in the rotation, while Anthony Kay could get a look at some point, as could a whole host of arms from their Triple-A corps. The bullpen is stocked with former starters who can handle multiple innings at a time, which could allow someone like Pearson to see some time out there if he struggles to stay healthy while taking on more innings. That sort of strategy would make room for another arm or two if the Blue Jays like the price.

  • The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said he doesn’t expect next year to provide many starters at all who reach the 170-inning mark, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly an interesting marker, given that it wasn’t that long ago that 200-inning campaigns were considered the standard bearer. It’s true that the Mariners might be more conservative than most in this regard: they’re planning to field a six-man rotation in 2021. In 2019, 51 pitchers crossed the 170-inning threshold. Still, Dipoto’s projection isn’t exactly laughable – nobody registered even 100 innings in the shortened season, and it’s might be unreasonable to expect starters to jump back to pre-COVID standards.

 

Blue Jays Re-Sign Robbie Ray

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The Blue Jays have announced that free agent left-hander Robbie Ray has been re-signed.  ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the southpaw will receive a one-year contract worth $8MM.

It was a tough season overall for Ray, who posted a 6.62 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, and a 7.8 BB/9 (highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched) over 51 2/3 combined innings for the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining, Ray’s numbers over his 20 2/3 innings with the Jays were better than his numbers with the D’Backs, though even a 4.79 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 with Toronto is nothing to write home about.

Robbie RayStill, the Jays clearly saw enough to welcome Ray back into the fold and line him up for a spot in Toronto’s rotation.  Passan notes that the Blue Jays intend to use Ray as a starting pitcher, adding him to a rotation mix that includes Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, and Ross Stripling.  It’s safe to assume that the Jays aren’t done exploring the pitching market, given how Ray, Roark, and Stripling all didn’t pitch well in 2020 and Pearson also struggled (and had some injury problems) in his first MLB season.

Home runs have always been an issue for Ray over his seven-year career, though his control went from being a concern to a full-on problem in 2020.  The one constant, however, has been strikeouts, as Ray has an 11.1 career K/9 and even led the league in that category in 2017 (12.1).  That season was Ray’s peak, as he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting and seemed to be blossoming as a front-of-the-rotation starter.  However, Ray was more okay than spectacular in 2018-19, as his walk totals crept upwards, his ground-ball numbers declined, and batters began to generate more hard contact against his arsenal.

Ray’s fastball velocity also dropped by almost two miles an hour, from a 94.3mph average in 2017 to a 92.4 average in 2019.  His velocity clicked back up to 93.7mph last season, and while there wasn’t much to like about Ray’s Statcast metrics in 2020, he still finished in the 80th percentile in fastball spin rate.

Ray is still only 29, and the one-year commitment gives the Blue Jays a chance to take a longer look at Ray without sacrificing any flexibility in future payrolls.  Toronto is thought to be one of the few teams who has some spending capacity this offseason, and this early strike to re-sign Ray (when most clubs reportedly have yet to even figure out their 2021 budget situations) indicates that the Jays could be aggressive players as they look to build on their wild card berth from the past year.  MLBTR ranked Ray 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, correctly predicting him for a one-year contract but for only $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Starting Pitching Notes: Kluber, Nats, Orioles

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Agent B.B. Abbott tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that right-hander Corey Kluber has been cleared to begin a throwing program and is expected to progress to throwing off a mound early next month (Twitter link). That timeline provides a glimpse into where Kluber is at in his rehab from the Grade 2 teres major strain that limited him to just one inning with the Rangers this past season. It stands to reason that interested clubs may prefer to see how Kluber handles that next critical step before committing a guaranteed contract to him. A broken forearm and a strained oblique muscle held Kluber to 35 2/3 innings in 2019, so he’s tossed just 36 2/3 frames over the past two seasons. However, in his last full season, the 34-year-old Kluber finished third in AL Cy Young voting.

Some notes on the market for starting pitching…

  • The Orioles are still in the midst of a long rebuild, but GM Mike Elias told reporters this week that he plans to look at the free-agent market for rotation options (link via Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com). “I definitely think we’re going to be signing some starting pitchers,” Elias said. “You can never have enough.” Elias downplayed the magnitude of any potential signing, cautioning that any such moves could be on major league or minor league deals. Baltimore went the latter route last winter when inking Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, but that duo is gone — as is righty Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles already have some young arms knocking on the door to potential rotation spots, headlined by left-hander Keegan Akin, but there’s so much uncertainty on the staff that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see multiple arms brought into the fold. “There will be additional competition in camp,” said Elias.
  • While many clubs are content to stay in-house to round out the back of their rotations, the Nationals’ history suggests that they’ll spend to add a No. 4 starter behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That fourth spot in the rotation was held down by Anibal Sanchez in 2019-20 but now looks vacant once again after Sanchez’s 2021 option was unsurprisingly declined. While the Nats might not break the bank  to bring in a veteran, there’s a rather robust market for fourth and fifth starter types, including a host of high-profile names seeking bouncebacks from poor 2020 showings. Zuckerman notes that southpaw Robbie Ray, one such starter, was initially a Nationals draft pick and a prospect that GM Mike Rizzo had a difficult time trading in the Doug Fister swap with the Tigers back in 2013. As seen on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, Ray is one of many options for clubs seeking rotation help.

Blue Jays To Acquire Robbie Ray

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The Blue Jays have acquired lefty Robbie Ray from the Diamondbacks, tweets Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun.  The D’Backs will receive southpaw Travis Bergen in return, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.  Arizona will also be sending over $300K in cash, according to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.  Ray has approximately $1.42MM left on his contract this year.

Ray, 29 in October, has pitched the vast majority of his career for Arizona after they acquired him in a December 2014 three-team trade.  He’s long been one of the game’s top strikeout pitchers, with an 11.9 K/9 mark that ranks third in MLB for qualified starters from 2016-19.  Never known for his control, walks have become problematic at times for Ray.  The issue has been particularly bad in this brief 2020 season, as Ray has issued free passes to more than a fifth of the batters he’s faced, easily the highest rate in MLB this year.  The result has been an unsightly 7.84 ERA, through seven starts, well out of line with his career work.  Ray will be eligible for free agency after the season, and in light of his performance this year, it’s unlikely the Diamondbacks would have been willing to issue a qualifying offer.

At present, the 18-14 Blue Jays are in line to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2016.  Ray marks the second addition to Toronto’s rotation in five days, as Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager Ross Atkins added Taijuan Walker from the Mariners last Thursday.  Atkins has assembled a veteran group, which also includes offseason pickups Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, and Chase Anderson.  Matt Shoemaker went down last week due to a lat strain, while uber-prospect Nate Pearson went on the shelf on August 19th for a flexor strain.  That pair hopes to return this year, while Trent Thornton is out for the season with an elbow injury.  The club will hope pitching coach Pete Walker can diagnose Rays’ control issues and help him bounce back over the season’s final month.

Today will mark the third time in Ray’s career he’s received that life-changing phone call from his GM informing him of a trade.  After being drafted by the Nationals in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Doug Fister from the Tigers to the Nats in 2013.  Just a year later, Ray landed with the Diamondbacks in a deal that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees and Shane Greene to the Tigers.  Ray blossomed into a fine pitcher for the D’Backs, putting together four separate seasons of at least 2.3 WAR and snagging an All-Star nod and seventh-place Cy Young finish in 2017.  By the 2018-19 offseason, Ray was a regular on the rumor circuit, but Executive Vice President & General Manager Mike Hazen didn’t pull the trigger until today, with most of the lefty’s trade value lost.

Bergen, 27 in October, was drafted by the Jays in the seventh round in 2015 out of Kennesaw State and has been used mostly in relief in his pro career.  Though the Giants picked up Bergen in the 2018 Rule 5 draft, they wound up designating him for assignment and returning him in August of last year after he returned from an IL stint for a shoulder injury.  His fastball ticked up to 93.7 mph this year for the Jays, more than three miles per hour than he showed in his rookie campaign.  But with all due respect to Bergen, it would appear this trade was mainly about salary relief from Arizona’s standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox Interested In Lance Lynn, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy

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11:11AM: The White Sox also have interest in Angels righty Dylan Bundy, Morosi tweets.

10:24AM: The White Sox are looking into the starting pitching market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that Rangers ace Lance Lynn is under consideration, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray has also been discussed (both links to Twitter).

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Connor Byrne recently put it, “Lynn is arguably the most coveted arm on the trade market.”  The right-hander has a 1.59 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 3.57 K/BB rate through 45 1/3 innings this season, and while advanced metrics hint at some inevitable ERA regression, those same numbers suggest Lynn is pitching at roughly the same level as he did in 2019, when he finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Beyond only his performance this season, Lynn is under contract for an $8MM salary in 2021, which stands as a more than reasonable price if he keeps pitching this well.  As big a trade chip as Lynn is, however, his pluses also make him a valuable asset to the Rangers, who are at least open to hearing offers for Lynn but maybe not likely to actually move him unless another team steps up with a big trade package.

It’s probably safe to assume that Ray is much more available, though the southpaw’s value has dramatically dropped off in the wake of a brutal start to the 2020 season.  Control issues and the home run ball have plagued Ray, who has a 7.84 ERA and 31 walks over 31 innings, despite a 12.5 K/9.  Despite Ray’s struggles, he has drawn interest from the Astros and other teams, with some clubs reportedly interested in deploying Ray as a reliever.

The White Sox have gotten very good results from Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Dallas Keuchel this season, but much less from a fourth/fifth starter mix that includes Gio Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, and the injured Carlos Rodon.  The league-wide perception, as least according to rival executives speaking with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, is that the Pale Hose will land a starter prior to Monday’s trade deadline.  The bullpen has been a strength overall, though it is short on left-handed pitchers (such as Ray) since Aaron Bummer is still on the injured list.

Acquiring Ray would be a pure short-term rental move, since he is a free agent after the year.  Prying Lynn away from Texas would cost the Sox quite a bit more in prospect capital, though it’s worth noting that the White Sox and Rangers have been rather frequent trading partners since Rick Hahn became Chicago’s general manager.  The White Sox are firmly in the playoff race this year and plan to be contenders for the foreseeable future, so Lynn is the type of pitcher that would also boost their chances of winning in 2021.

Astros Interested In Robbie Ray, Matt Barnes

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With a pitching staff ravaged by injuries, it isn’t any surprise that the Astros are exploring adding some hurlers at the deadline.  Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) report that two of Houston’s targets include Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray and Red Sox reliever Matt Barnes.

Ray has been a popular figure in trade rumors for a couple of years, and the most recent round of speculation has had some teams interested in acquiring him as a relief pitcher due to his rough performance in 2020.  Over seven starts, Ray has a 7.84 ERA in 31 innings, due in large part to a 2.6 HR/9 and a major loss of control — Ray has a league-leading 31 walks and six wild pitches.  It’s possible Houston could be one of the teams eyeing Ray as a reliever, perhaps the team feels it can fix his control problems and again turn him into a solid starter.

Barnes has also had a tough go of it this season, and for some of the same reasons as Ray.  Barnes has a 6.00 ERA over 12 IP out of Boston’s pen, with a 2.3 HR/9 and a career-worst 6.8 BB/9.  As per Fangraphs, only 3.2% of Barnes’ offerings have resulted in soft contact this season, as he has a 45.2% hard-hit ball rate and 51.6% medium-hit rate.

The common element between the two pitchers is a lot of missed bats.  Ray has a 12.5 K/9 this season and a 12.1 K/9 since the start of the 2017 season; in that same timeframe, Barnes has a 13.2 K/9, which includes an 11.3 K/9 in 2020.  After ranking at or near the top of the league in strikeouts from 2017-19, Astros pitchers have combined for an 8.64 K/9 this season, ranked 21st of 30 teams.

Ray is a free agent after the season, while Barnes has one more year of arbitration eligibility before hitting the open market himself in the 2021-22 offseason.  This extra year of control might mean Barnes could actually have a higher trade value than Ray at this point, despite Ray’s ability to start games.  Astros GM James Click knows Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom well from their time together in the Rays front office, while Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen swung a very notable deal (the Zack Greinke blockbuster) with the Astros at least year’s deadline.

Pitching Notes: D-backs, Cubs, Verlander

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Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray is drawing interest from “a few teams” as a bullpen possibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. The 28-year-old left-hander has only made three relief appearances in his career (none since his first season in 2014); however, after several respectable seasons as a starter, the soon-to-be free agent has tanked in 2020. He owns an awful 8.33 ERA/7.77 FIP with 8.33 BB/9 across 27 innings this year, though some clubs may have hope that Ray’s high-strikeout ways will lead to success in the bullpen during the stretch run of the season. That said, there’s no guarantee the Diamondbacks will move Ray before the Aug. 31 deadline, as they entered Monday a manageable two games back of a wild-card spot.

  • More on the Diamondbacks, who made righty Merrill Kelly a late scratch before his start Monday. It was easy to speculate on a potential trade when that happened, but it turns out Kelly is dealing with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. The club has placed Kelly on the 10-day injured list as a result and recalled righty Riley Smith. Kelly has been quite effective this season, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained Monday, so losing him is a blow to the D-backs’ playoff hopes and perhaps a less-than-ideal development heading into the deadline.
  • Cubs southpaw Jose Quintana and righty Tyler Chatwood will come off the injured list Tuesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports. Quintana, who has been out all season after undergoing left thumb surgery, will work from the bullpen upon his return. That’s relatively new territory for Quintana, who has totaled just four relief appearances out of 250 in his career. As Wittenmyer notes, though, Quintana could find himself back in a starting role soon if Chatwood or Alec Mills falters (Mills didn’t in a win over Detroit on Monday). Chatwood, who will start Tuesday, turned in a pair of great outings to open the season, but he went on the IL with a back issue after the Royals shellacked him for eight earned runs on 11 hits in 2 1/3 innings on Aug. 6. He’s now set to rejoin Mills, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester in the Cubs’ rotation.
  • It has been nearly a month since the Astros shut down ace Justin Verlander because of a right forearm strain, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner continues to make progress in his recovery. Manager Dusty Baker issued an update on Verlander on Monday, saying to Mark Berman of Fox 26 and other reporters: “I think he threw 20 pitches yesterday. He said he felt pretty good. That’s a positive sign.” It’s still unknown whether Verlander will make it back this year, especially with only about a month remaining in the regular season. Houston has started 15-13 despite only one appearance from Verlander (and several other notable injuries), putting the team two games back of a wild-card spot.

Robbie Ray Discusses Pending Free Agency

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As a pending free agent who’s about to embark on a pandemic-shortened season, Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray is facing an especially uncertain future. Ray figures to cash in on his next contract – at least, relative to the majority of other soon-to-be free agents – but perhaps not to the extent that he would have on the heels of a typical 162-game campaign. However, Ray is optimistic he won’t take too much of a hit.

In regards to the upcoming free-agent market, Ray told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and Zach Buchanan of The Athletic): “I think there’s still going to be money out there for guys. You can look towards next year, getting fans in the stands and things like that. I don’t think there’s going to be any kind of issue.”

It remains to be seen whether that will be the case a year from now. In the meantime, Ray – who’s certainly hoping to make a push for as big a payday as possible next winter – has spent the past few months ramping up in an effort to hit the ground running when the regular season kicks off. With that in mind, he’s set on playing in 2020.

“I, honestly, need to pitch this year,” he said.

As things stand, Ray will enter the market as one of the most appealing starters available in a class that looks as if it will generally lack young, high-caliber options. Ray hasn’t consistently posted top-end run prevention numbers, evidenced by his 4.11 ERA/3.97 FIP across 790 2/3 innings, and he also walked a bit over four batters per nine in the majors. But his age (29 in October) and elite strikeout ability should help lead to a good amount of interest from teams looking to better their rotations. Dating back to 2016, Ray’s 11.86 K/9 ranks third among all starters, trailing Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. He also came in third in that category last season, fanning 12.13 hitters per nine to rank behind only Scherzer and Gerrit Cole.

Replacing A Strikeout Machine

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The Diamondbacks and much-maligned former general manager Dave Stewart made a shrewd pickup six years ago when they acquired left-hander Robbie Ray from the Tigers in a three-team trade. Ray has been one of the most productive players on Arizona’s roster since then, but his time in the desert may be nearing an end. Regardless of whether a season takes place, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Ray may choose to test the free-agent market in the winter, when he’d rank near the top of the list of available starters.

[RELATED: Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal]

The most appealing thing about Ray is that he fans hitters in droves, having struck out 11-plus batters per nine in four straight seasons. He ranked third in that category last year with 12.13 K/9, trailing only now-$324MM man Gerrit Cole and former teammate Max Scherzer. Problem is that Ray hasn’t kept runs off the board at elite rates like Cole and Scherzer have, nor has he been the innings-eating workhorse along their lines. Ray’s the owner of a lifetime 4.11 ERA/3.97 FIP and has never reached the 175-frame mark in a season.

Most recently, Ray pitched to a 4.34 ERA/4.29 FIP across 174 1/3 innings in 2019. That’s not ace-like production, but there’s nothing wrong with it at all, and the Diamondbacks might soon have to find a way to replace it. They’ve at least pondered it, as Ray has been the subject of countless trade rumors over the past couple seasons. No offer has gotten Arizona to bite thus far, though, and after a strong 85-win effort last year, the club doesn’t seem prepared to part with Ray in the near future. Rather, the Diamonbacks made a serious effort to improve their rotation in the offseason by signing ex-Giant Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM pact. The belief then was that there would be a season, and the hope was that Ray, Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen and Mike Leake would form a tremendous starting five.

The potential is certainly there for the D-backs’ rotation to be a smash success in 2020. But it may well end up as Ray’s last season with the club. The same goes for Leake, who has an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout for 2021. A rotation devoid of Ray and Leake would still have a nice trio in Bumgarner, Weaver and Gallen, but what of the other two spots? Arizona just spent pretty big on Bumgarner, so maybe it would shop at the high end of the market again for someone like old friend Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, James Paxton or Jose Quintana. Otherwise, at the mid- and lower-tier levels of free agency, there should be quite a few somewhat intriguing arms available. You also can’t discount the trade market, where Matthew Boyd, Jon Gray and Chris Archer are some of the hurlers who could soon be available.

As far as in-house options go, Arizona doesn’t appear to be loaded with immediate solutions. The Diamondbacks could keep Merrill Kelly for $4.25MM, but he may be a buyout candidate ($500K) after producing mediocre results in 2019. The team does have several other choices who have either pitched in the majors or are almost ready for MLB (Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener, J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin are some examples), though nobody there has a proven track record of racking up outs at the game’s highest level.

If you’re the D-backs, one of the many reasons you’re hoping a season occurs is so what looks like a very good rotation can help you break a two-year playoff drought. But that rotation looks as if it will weaken soon, largely on account of Ray’s pending free agency.

Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal

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Back in the 2013-14 offseason, the Tigers were looking to move a veteran starter … but not because they were in a rebuild. The club had taken three consecutive AL Central titles (and would add another in the ensuing campaign).

The issue was quite the opposite: with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly all on the staff, the Detroit organization felt it had depth to spare. Looking ahead at the cost to retain the team’s stars — they ultimately failed to reach a deal with Scherzer but inked a monster extension with Miguel Cabrera later that offseason — the decision was made to trim some costs where possible and bring back some long-range talent.

Meanwhile, the Nationals were in search of a quality arm to plug into would land Fister in a swap that sent a largely underwhelming three-player package back to the Tigers. Utilityman Steve Lombardozzi and lefty reliever Ian Krol were each young players with MLB experience but little in the way of apparent ceiling. The Tigers hoped that they’d be affordable contributors, but neither carved out a career in Detroit. The most interesting long-term piece was a notable but not overly heralded lefty pitching prospect by the name of Robbie Ray.

This wasn’t quite how the Tigers wanted talks to play out. The club reportedly wanted a different young hurler to headline the deal: Taylor Jordan, who had emerged out of obscurity in 2013. Jordan utilized his decidedly Fister-esque skillset to compile 51 2/3 innings of 3.66 ERA work in 2013, averaging just 5.1 K/9 but limiting the walks (1.9 BB/9) and homers (0.52 HR/9) while generating lots of groundballs (57.5%). It seemed Jordan might well be a long-term rotation piece, even if it was unlikely he’d ever really dominate.

Ray, a 22-year-old former 12th-round pick, hadn’t yet reached the highest level of the minors, let alone the bigs. But he was perhaps a higher-ceiling young hurler than Jordan. In 2013, Ray worked to a 3.68 cumulative ERA over 142 frames at the High-A and Double-A levels while racking up 10.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.

For good reason, the Nationals were widely lauded for their acquisition. I characterized the deal as a value-laden, well-timed strike. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs said the Nats had paid “a shockingly low price, considering that Fister is one of the game’s most underrated pitchers.” While anything but flashy, the tall right-hander had a nice track record of high-quality rotation work — over 800 frames of 3.53 ERA ball — and came with two seasons of remaining arbitration control. The thievery metaphor was popular, beginning with the title of Cameron’s post. Plenty of people termed the swap a “steal,” especially after Fister turned in an outstanding 2014 campaign.

There’s no discounting Fister’s excellence in his first year in D.C. Though he missed some action, he still managed to spin 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball. But as it turned out, that would be the last truly productive campaign of his career. Fister struggled with a lat injury at the start of the ensuing campaign and never really got going. He did manage a useful 4.19 ERA in 103 frames in 2015, so it was hardly a minimal contribution, but the peripherals didn’t support the results and the output didn’t account for his final arbitration salary of $11.4MM. Any thoughts of recouping draft compensation by issuing a qualifying offer went right out the window.

On the other side of the swap … well, the Tigers didn’t quite get what they hoped for either, but they only had their own ensuing actions to blame. After watching Ray struggle in a brief 2014 debut, Detroit ended up sending him out in a memorable three-team trade that really didn’t work out for the Motown side. That deal, which also cost the Tigers a decent infield prospect in Domingo Leyba, returned righty Shane Greene. While he had his moments in Detroit, they came after he transitioned to a relief role. Greene was swapped out last summer. The arrangement would have gone better had the Tigers simply taken shortstop Didi Gregorius, who ended up with the Yankees.

By that point, Ray was ready for a full test at the MLB level. He turned in a very strong debut in 2015. And while the results have taken a bit of a rollercoaster ride since, he has produced huge strikeout numbers and generally fared well in the eyes of advanced metrics. Ray has contributed 762 innings of 3.96 ERA ball in Arizona while racking up 11.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. The long ball has been an issue, but it hasn’t stopped him from compiling 10 rWAR and a dozen fWAR — well over twice what Fister ended up providing to the Nats (4.5 rWAR / 1.7 fWAR) — in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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