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Robbie Ray

Replacing A Strikeout Machine

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The Diamondbacks and much-maligned former general manager Dave Stewart made a shrewd pickup six years ago when they acquired left-hander Robbie Ray from the Tigers in a three-team trade. Ray has been one of the most productive players on Arizona’s roster since then, but his time in the desert may be nearing an end. Regardless of whether a season takes place, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Ray may choose to test the free-agent market in the winter, when he’d rank near the top of the list of available starters.

[RELATED: Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal]

The most appealing thing about Ray is that he fans hitters in droves, having struck out 11-plus batters per nine in four straight seasons. He ranked third in that category last year with 12.13 K/9, trailing only now-$324MM man Gerrit Cole and former teammate Max Scherzer. Problem is that Ray hasn’t kept runs off the board at elite rates like Cole and Scherzer have, nor has he been the innings-eating workhorse along their lines. Ray’s the owner of a lifetime 4.11 ERA/3.97 FIP and has never reached the 175-frame mark in a season.

Most recently, Ray pitched to a 4.34 ERA/4.29 FIP across 174 1/3 innings in 2019. That’s not ace-like production, but there’s nothing wrong with it at all, and the Diamondbacks might soon have to find a way to replace it. They’ve at least pondered it, as Ray has been the subject of countless trade rumors over the past couple seasons. No offer has gotten Arizona to bite thus far, though, and after a strong 85-win effort last year, the club doesn’t seem prepared to part with Ray in the near future. Rather, the Diamonbacks made a serious effort to improve their rotation in the offseason by signing ex-Giant Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85MM pact. The belief then was that there would be a season, and the hope was that Ray, Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen and Mike Leake would form a tremendous starting five.

The potential is certainly there for the D-backs’ rotation to be a smash success in 2020. But it may well end up as Ray’s last season with the club. The same goes for Leake, who has an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout for 2021. A rotation devoid of Ray and Leake would still have a nice trio in Bumgarner, Weaver and Gallen, but what of the other two spots? Arizona just spent pretty big on Bumgarner, so maybe it would shop at the high end of the market again for someone like old friend Trevor Bauer, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, James Paxton or Jose Quintana. Otherwise, at the mid- and lower-tier levels of free agency, there should be quite a few somewhat intriguing arms available. You also can’t discount the trade market, where Matthew Boyd, Jon Gray and Chris Archer are some of the hurlers who could soon be available.

As far as in-house options go, Arizona doesn’t appear to be loaded with immediate solutions. The Diamondbacks could keep Merrill Kelly for $4.25MM, but he may be a buyout candidate ($500K) after producing mediocre results in 2019. The team does have several other choices who have either pitched in the majors or are almost ready for MLB (Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener, J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin are some examples), though nobody there has a proven track record of racking up outs at the game’s highest level.

If you’re the D-backs, one of the many reasons you’re hoping a season occurs is so what looks like a very good rotation can help you break a two-year playoff drought. But that rotation looks as if it will weaken soon, largely on account of Ray’s pending free agency.

Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal

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Back in the 2013-14 offseason, the Tigers were looking to move a veteran starter … but not because they were in a rebuild. The club had taken three consecutive AL Central titles (and would add another in the ensuing campaign).

The issue was quite the opposite: with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly all on the staff, the Detroit organization felt it had depth to spare. Looking ahead at the cost to retain the team’s stars — they ultimately failed to reach a deal with Scherzer but inked a monster extension with Miguel Cabrera later that offseason — the decision was made to trim some costs where possible and bring back some long-range talent.

Meanwhile, the Nationals were in search of a quality arm to plug into would land Fister in a swap that sent a largely underwhelming three-player package back to the Tigers. Utilityman Steve Lombardozzi and lefty reliever Ian Krol were each young players with MLB experience but little in the way of apparent ceiling. The Tigers hoped that they’d be affordable contributors, but neither carved out a career in Detroit. The most interesting long-term piece was a notable but not overly heralded lefty pitching prospect by the name of Robbie Ray.

This wasn’t quite how the Tigers wanted talks to play out. The club reportedly wanted a different young hurler to headline the deal: Taylor Jordan, who had emerged out of obscurity in 2013. Jordan utilized his decidedly Fister-esque skillset to compile 51 2/3 innings of 3.66 ERA work in 2013, averaging just 5.1 K/9 but limiting the walks (1.9 BB/9) and homers (0.52 HR/9) while generating lots of groundballs (57.5%). It seemed Jordan might well be a long-term rotation piece, even if it was unlikely he’d ever really dominate.

Ray, a 22-year-old former 12th-round pick, hadn’t yet reached the highest level of the minors, let alone the bigs. But he was perhaps a higher-ceiling young hurler than Jordan. In 2013, Ray worked to a 3.68 cumulative ERA over 142 frames at the High-A and Double-A levels while racking up 10.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.

For good reason, the Nationals were widely lauded for their acquisition. I characterized the deal as a value-laden, well-timed strike. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs said the Nats had paid “a shockingly low price, considering that Fister is one of the game’s most underrated pitchers.” While anything but flashy, the tall right-hander had a nice track record of high-quality rotation work — over 800 frames of 3.53 ERA ball — and came with two seasons of remaining arbitration control. The thievery metaphor was popular, beginning with the title of Cameron’s post. Plenty of people termed the swap a “steal,” especially after Fister turned in an outstanding 2014 campaign.

There’s no discounting Fister’s excellence in his first year in D.C. Though he missed some action, he still managed to spin 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball. But as it turned out, that would be the last truly productive campaign of his career. Fister struggled with a lat injury at the start of the ensuing campaign and never really got going. He did manage a useful 4.19 ERA in 103 frames in 2015, so it was hardly a minimal contribution, but the peripherals didn’t support the results and the output didn’t account for his final arbitration salary of $11.4MM. Any thoughts of recouping draft compensation by issuing a qualifying offer went right out the window.

On the other side of the swap … well, the Tigers didn’t quite get what they hoped for either, but they only had their own ensuing actions to blame. After watching Ray struggle in a brief 2014 debut, Detroit ended up sending him out in a memorable three-team trade that really didn’t work out for the Motown side. That deal, which also cost the Tigers a decent infield prospect in Domingo Leyba, returned righty Shane Greene. While he had his moments in Detroit, they came after he transitioned to a relief role. Greene was swapped out last summer. The arrangement would have gone better had the Tigers simply taken shortstop Didi Gregorius, who ended up with the Yankees.

By that point, Ray was ready for a full test at the MLB level. He turned in a very strong debut in 2015. And while the results have taken a bit of a rollercoaster ride since, he has produced huge strikeout numbers and generally fared well in the eyes of advanced metrics. Ray has contributed 762 innings of 3.96 ERA ball in Arizona while racking up 11.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. The long ball has been an issue, but it hasn’t stopped him from compiling 10 rWAR and a dozen fWAR — well over twice what Fister ended up providing to the Nats (4.5 rWAR / 1.7 fWAR) — in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks, Robbie Ray Hadn’t Been Discussing Extension

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There won’t be any extension negotiations happening anytime soon around the baseball world, though even prior to the league shutdown, the Diamondbacks and left-hander Robbie Ray weren’t engaging in any talks about a new deal, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) reports.  Ray is scheduled to be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason, and he is still set to hit the open market even in the event that the 2020 season doesn’t happen, as per the recent agreement between the league and the players’ union.

An extension between Ray and the D’Backs never seemed overly likely, as the southpaw has been a fixture in trade rumors for over a year.  Rather than be one of the prominent Diamondbacks stars to leave town via trade (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke) in recent years, Ray now looks to follow Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock on the list of D’Backs who left in free agency.  Despite this turnover, however, GM Mike Hazen has remodeled the Snakes into a team that looks like it could compete for a postseason berth if the 2020 season happens, especially after a busy winter that saw Arizona acquire Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte.

While last summer’s Greinke trade indicates that we can’t be totally sure that the D’Backs wouldn’t try to move Ray even if they remain in contention, Ray doesn’t have nearly the payroll impact that Greinke’s contract carried.  Ray avoided arbitration in his third and final arb-eligible year by agreeing to a $9.43MM for 2020, meaning that he didn’t represent much of a financial burden even before the league shutdown, and Ray will now earn only a prorated amount of that $9.43MM figure based on the number of games actually played in the shortened schedule.

It’s a more than reasonable price to pay for a starter who has been occasionally spectacular but mostly solid over the last five seasons.  Since coming to Arizona as part of the three-team trade with the Tigers and Yankees that sent Didi Gregorius to New York and Shane Greene to Detroit in December 2014, Ray has a 3.96 ERA, 11.3 K/9, and 2.77 K/BB rate over 762 innings.  Ray has battled some control and hard-contact issues, and has consistently had difficultly keeping the ball in the park, though getting out of Chase Field could help address that latter problem.  The 28-year-old southpaw has allowed 58 homers in 349 2/3 innings at Chase Field over his career, and only 52 home runs in 441 innings elsewhere.

Another good season would have put Ray in line for a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had Ray ranked sixth in the first edition of the 2020-21 free agent power rankings (written in February).  Projecting what Ray might earn is now much harder, of course, given the total uncertainty of what next winter’s market could look like in the aftermath of the abbreviated-or-canceled 2020 season.

MLBTR Poll: Bauer vs. Ray vs. Stroman

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Baseball’s hiatus gives us an opportunity to examine both the past and future of the sport. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked back at a potential franchise-altering trade that never materialized. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the future: specifically, the upcoming free agent class.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran his initial 2020-21 free agent power rankings a few weeks ago. No question, Mookie Betts looks like the jewel of a position player heavy class. Yet the pitching side looks a bit muddled. Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman checked in alongside one another (in that order) as the three arms in Tim’s top ten. Obviously, there’s time for one to emerge as the unquestioned top starter on the market in 2020. As of now, though, which hurler do the MLBTR readers anticipate getting the top guarantee next winter, and which one would you prefer your favorite team roll the dice on?

  • Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati: For most of his career, the 29-year-old Bauer’s been a durable, mid-rotation type. He’s soaked up tons of innings, but in five of six seasons, he’s put up an ERA between 4.18 and 4.55 (with marginally better FIP’s). At his best, though, Bauer flashed a ceiling most pitchers can only dream of. In 2018, the former #3 overall pick worked to a 2.21 ERA with an elite 30.8% strikeout rate. An unsustainably low HR/FB rate meant that ERA always figured to regress somewhat, but it was still surprising to see Bauer post a league-average 4.48 mark in 2019. Bauer, of course, has expressed a desire to sign a series of one-year deals as a free agent. If he sticks to that plan, he’ll almost certainly not garner the top overall guarantee for a pitcher this offseason (or any other). But that high-risk approach is easier to espouse in theory than in practice, and Bauer recently walked back that plan a little bit. His free agency will be fascinating to follow.
  • Robbie Ray, Arizona: A bit like Bauer, the 28-year-old Ray is a tantalizing but somewhat frustrating talent. Since the start of 2017, he ranks fifth among starters (minimum 300 innings) in strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike rate. He’s surrounded by the game’s aces on both leaderboards. Only Tyler Chatwood and Francisco Liriano have higher walk rates than Ray in that same period, though. The southpaw has never had a season with a better than average walk rate; that general inefficiency has run up some high pitch counts and helped prevent Ray from ever eclipsing 175 innings in a season. His ERA’s the past four years have varied quite a bit (4.90, 2.89, 3.93, 4.34). Teams could have different evaluations for Ray’s future, but the most likely outcome seems to be solid mid-rotation production via something of an extreme approach.
  • Marcus Stroman, Mets: Unlike his top two competitors, Stroman doesn’t generate many whiffs. The 28-year-old’s sinker is more conducive to a ground-ball heavy game. He throws strikes and has managed to avoid home runs even in the juiced ball era thanks to strong contact management. Stroman’s sinker/slider/cutter mix isn’t the four-seam/curveball combination coveted by most teams nowadays. Nevertheless, he’ll have plenty of suitors since he’s proven capable of ample success. 2018 was an injury-marred struggle, but Stroman’s put up at least 184.1 innings in three of the past four seasons and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. That’s a better track record of run prevention than either Bauer (4.04) or Ray (4.11) can boast.
  • Others: Other free agents to be (complete list of 2020-21 free agents) include Kevin Gausman, James Paxton, Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. Between age, injuries and/or recent underperformance, it’s tough to project any of them to beat Bauer, Ray or Stroman this winter. Perhaps you’re more optimistic about someone a bit under-the-radar?

poll link for app users

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NL West Notes: Yolmer, Ray, MadBum, Saunders, Cordero

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Before signing a minor league deal with the Giants, Yolmer Sanchez turned down some MLB contract offers from other teams, the second baseman told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  His decision was partly for financial reasons — the other offers promised him guaranteed money but less than the $2.5MM Sanchez will make if he cracks the Giants’ roster — and partly for opportunity-based reasons, as other clubs wanted to use Sanchez in a utility role.  As Schulman writes, Sanchez preferred to “bet on himself…for a chance to be an everyday second baseman” in San Francisco.

It remains to be seen if Sanchez can become a regular amidst the Giants’ youth movement, or against a veteran like second base candidate Wilmer Flores, who did sign a guaranteed Major League deal with the team.  Aside from Flores, the Giants also have youngster Mauricio Dubon and utilityman Donovan Solano in the mix at the keystone, not to mention Kean Wong, Zach Green, and longtime Giants staple Pablo Sandoval in camp battling for infield jobs.

More from the NL West…

  • Robbie Ray has been a fixture in trade rumors for the better part of a year, and the Diamondbacks southpaw told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert that “I thought I was as good as gone” heading into last summer’s trade deadline.  “We were in it, but we were far enough behind where it looked like it was a real possibility that I was going to go somewhere.  I was hearing it every single day,” Ray said.  As it happened, the D’Backs instead unloaded an even bigger arm (and a bigger contract) by dealing Zack Greinke to the Astros, though Ray still felt he was a trade candidate during “the first part of the offseason…and then we made the moves that we made.”  Acquiring Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte, Kole Calhoun has now made the D’Backs into a popular choice to reach the postseason, leaving Ray now comfortable that he will remain in Arizona as long as the club is in contention.  Ray is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.
  • Speaking of Bumgarner, the southpaw’s secret identity of rodeo team-roper “Mason Saunders” was publicly revealed today by Andrew Baggarly and Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (subscription required).  Bumgarner’s participation in rodeo events has been something of an open secret for some time, though he has used the fake name to avoid extra publicity.  Saun…er, Bumgarner competed in two events as recently as December, prior to signing his five-year, $85MM contract with the Diamondbacks.  It isn’t known whether that agreement allows the left-hander to continue roping in organized events, as GM Mike Hazen said he was “not going to get into discussing specific contract language.”
  • Injuries have limited Franchy Cordero to only 49 Major League games over the last two seasons, leaving the Padres uncertain but still hopeful about his vast potential, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Teammates remain impressed by Cordero, with no less than Fernando Tatis Jr. saying “if [Cordero] has a chance, he’s going to outplay me.  He has more tools than me.  He has way more power than me, and the speed is about the same level….If he stays healthy, he can be one of the best players in the game, simple as that.”  Some glimpses of Cordero’s hitting ability have been exhibited over his 273 career plate appearances, as Cordero has ten homers and a .240/.306/.431 slash line as a big leaguer, and his ability to play all three outfield positions could be an advantage as he fights to win at least a bench job on San Diego’s roster.

Diamondbacks Notes: Marte, Second Base, Arbitration

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Ketel Marte is likely ticketed for heavy usage in centerfield this season, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks stated preference for Marte is twofold: they’d like to return him to the infield, and they’d like not to bounce him between positions (in 2019, Marte appeared in 96 games in center, 83 at second, and 11 at shortstop). But unless they make a move on the trade market, GM Mike Hazen is unlikely to satisfy both criteria.  They could have their cake and eat it too by trading for the Pirates’ star centerfielder of the same surname. Speculatively speaking, Starling Marte and Jackie Bradley Jr. are both available, and there aren’t many options beyond those two to upgrade in center. A year after picking 8 times in the first 100 selections of the 2019 draft, the Diamondbacks have the prospect capital to make such a move if they want to cash in. If not…

  • …the organization is much better off in the second baseman department, with Eduardo Escobar, Andy Young, Ildemaro Vargas, Domingo Leyba and Josh Rojas all capable of winning the spot with a strong spring. Eduardo Escobar’s handling of the keystone only becomes likely if Jake Lamb stakes his claim to the hot corner with some authority. That’s not out of the question for the 29-year-old, though given last year’s .193/.323/.353 performance, Lamb would need a very strong spring to gird himself against any kind of early season slump. Otherwise, the Diamondbacks appear comfortable letting a host of options work their way through second base. Escobar is likelier to play third most of the time, as he did last year, with one of their younger options such as Rojas or Young chunking their time up the middle. With Kole Calhoun in right and Stephen Vogt brought in to back up at catcher, the centerfield/second base slot remains the last significant variable for the Diamondbacks to solve on offense before Opening Day. 
  • Regarding arbitration, the Diamondbacks reached one-year accords with four arb-eligible players yesterday: Robbie Ray, Andrew Chafin, Matt Andriese and Jake Lamb. The D-backs also locked up their left fielder David Peralta with a three-year, $22MM deal. Incumbent closer Archie Bradley and consecutive gold glove winner Nick Ahmed are the only two players headed for the arbitration panel as of right now. Figures for both players have been filed.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Poll: Should The D-Backs Trade Robbie Ray?

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Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has splashed far more cash in free agency this winter than in his prior offseasons at the helm. Most notably, he pulled off a surprise strike for star hurler Madison Bumgarner, who’s now in town for a five-year term.

The addition of MadBum seemed to be spurred largely by the already legendary lefty’s own interest in playing in Arizona. While the team proved amenable to working out a mutually agreeable contract, it was in large part an opportunistic strike for an organization that had signaled satisfaction with its pitching depth when it non-tendered Taijuan Walker at the outset of the offseason.

So … what about the team’s preexisting star southpaw? Hazen has denied that the big new addition would push Robbie Ray out of the organization’s plans, but word was at the outset of the winter — i.e., before the Bumgarner pursuit even began — that the team was open to dealing Ray. With Ray set to earn a projected $10.8MM via arbitration before reaching the open market, the club could cash him in and re-distribute the salary to account for its recent additions or support further signings.

Perhaps it’s now a rather simple proposition: put Ray on the auction block and get what you can in trade value. The Snakes already added Mike Leake and Zac Gallen via trade in the summer. Merrill Kelly is a Leake-like sturdy presence while Luke Weaver will look to resume his impressive initial showing after resting and rehabbing. That makes five without Ray. And the D-Backs have a host of upper-level depth on the 40-man, including Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, and Taylor Widener.

On the other hand … maybe now’s the time and this is the team to hang onto the upside-laden Ray. The southpaw has rare strikeout ability and is a rather affordable asset for a pitcher of his ability. Bumgarner’s deal features a notably light 2020 salary, perhaps leaving payroll space to fit both of these quality lefties. Keeping Ray would make the Arizona staff one of the better units in the National League. The D-Backs could deploy some of their extra arms in relief capacities, comforted by the extra depth. Or they might deal away a now-unnecessary starting piece, prioritizing near-term upside over pure cost-efficiency.

While the Dodgers still look like a strong favorite in the NL West, the L.A. org hasn’t yet converted on its bids to improve this winter and does have a few potential weak spots. If the Diamondbacks are to make a real bid at breaking the stranglehold on the division, keeping Ray in hopes he can perform to his ceiling would make an awful lot of sense. Even if the Dodgers respond to the pressure by acquiring a star-level player, that could redound to the long-term benefit of the Diamondbacks and other division pursuers.

As always, it depends in no small part upon the return that could actually be achieved. But in this case, perhaps, it’s more a question of organizational direction than the specifics of trade value. Picking up more prospect capital arguably isn’t as important to the D-Backs as maximizing their 2020 chances. And there’s always the fall-back option of a summer trade or qualifying offer at season’s end.

How do you think Hazen and co. should proceed? (Poll link for app users)

Pitching Notes: Ryu, Keuchel, Ray, King Felix

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Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”

Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.

More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…

  • Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.
  • The Diamondbacks’ decision to sign Madison Bumgarner wasn’t made as a precursor to a Robbie Ray trade, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Of course, it wouldn’t behoove any general manager to proclaim otherwise, and as Piecoro observes, nothing in Hazen’s comments expressly rules out the possibility of trading Ray, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Arizona moved Paul Goldschmidt under similar circumstances, when he had a year of control remaining and was set to be their second-highest-paid player. (Ray will actually be Arizona’s highest-paid player, given the backloaded nature of Bumgarner’s deal.) The strong demand for pitching and dwindling supply in free agency should make Ray a popular target and could position the D-backs to again pick up a controllable piece or two that’s near the big league level, as was the case in recent trades of Goldschmidt (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) and Zack Greinke (Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas).
  • Former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has already made clear he won’t be hanging up his spikes. He’s “receiving interest” from teams, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter, although the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Hernandez may be a former Cy Young winner who sat atop the hierarchy of baseball’s very best pitchers from 2009-14, but his decline into a back-of-the-rotation arm and, more recently, a liability on the mound was rather swift. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has limped to a dismal 5.82 ERA / 5.44 FIP in 227 1/3 innings. The scintillating heater that averaged nearly 96 mph and scraped triple digits when he debuted as a babyfaced 19-year-old in 2005 has faded to an 89.5 mph average dating back to Opening Day 2018. A pitcher with Hernandez’s preternatural talent shouldn’t be totally counted out, particularly given that he won’t even turn 34 until April, but he’s purely a rebound candidate at this point.

Details On Madison Bumgarner’s Agreement With The Diamondbacks

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Madison Bumgarner became the latest free agent pitcher to leave the open market, agreeing to a five-year, $85MM deal with the Diamondbacks on Sunday.  While reports from earlier this week suggested that Arizona was in the mix, it still raised a lot of eyebrows to see the D’Backs (who weren’t considered likely to either make a big free agent signing or pursue a big-ticket pitcher) wind up as Bumgarner’s new destination.  Here’s more on the signing…

  • The Diamondbacks were Bumgarner’s top choice in free agency “provided they could pay him at an appropriate level,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) hears from a source close to the left-hander.  The $85MM guarantee was enough to get it done, though $15MM of the money is deferred.  While it wasn’t quite the five-year/$100MM commitment Bumgarner and his camp were reportedly hoping to land, it could be that the D’Backs came close enough, or — as Rosenthal speculates — perhaps no team was willing to go to nine figures for Bumgarner’s services.
  • Rosenthal and his fellow scribes at The Athletic discussed the Bumgarner signing in a roundtable, with Andrew Baggarly noting that new Giants manager Gabe Kapler hadn’t yet spoken with the southpaw as of the Winter Meetings.  In Baggarly’s view, that was the sign that Bumgarner wasn’t returning to San Francisco.  “If the Giants had legitimate interest, and believed they had a legitimate chance, you can bet that calls and meetings would’ve been set up. Kapler would have begun the back-channeling before he even got the job,” Baggarly writes.
  • A counter-argument of sorts is provided by Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links), who reports that the Giants offered Bumgarner a four-year contract in the range of $17MM per year in average annual value.  “One of [Bumgarner’s] confidants” believes the lefty would have re-signed with the Giants had they offered him the same deal as Arizona, Schulman writes, except the fifth year might have been enough to pull the D’Backs of San Francisco and perhaps other suitors.  Indeed, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link) reports that the Twins were also unwilling to give Bumgarner a fifth year.
  • The fact that Bumgarner went to something of a mystery team creates even more of a crunch for teams who were known to be more fervently pursuing rotation help.  Ironically, the team that could benefit from this crunch could be the D’Backs themselves.  As The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan puts it, “the Diamondbacks may have just created the starting pitching scarcity they need to trade Robbie Ray for his best value.”  There has been wide speculation that Ray could be dealt this offseason, as Ray is entering the final year of his contract and is projected to earn $10.8MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility.  With Bumgarner now in the fold, the D’Backs could feel enough comfort in their rotation to move Ray and both address other needs while getting his salary off the books at the same time.
  • As a final coda on Bumgarner’s tenure with the Giants, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group notes that Bumgarner might not have reached free agency if it weren’t for a pair of injuries — Bumgarner’s infamous dirt biking accident in April 2017, and then the fractured hand suffered on his last Spring Training outing in 2018.  In both instances, the Giants were on the verge of broaching extension talks with their longtime ace.
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