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Blue Jays Hopeful Of Retaining Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray

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Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray have been two of baseball’s best players this season, let alone big reasons why the Blue Jays are still in the hunt for an AL wild card berth.  Both are scheduled to hit free agency this winter, and it isn’t any surprise that the Jays have interest in keeping both players in the fold.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Jays have already tried to sign Semien to a contract extension, while the club intends to discuss a long-term deal with Ray after the season.

The wording would seem to imply that the Jays have yet to broach an extension with Ray, which might not necessarily mean that the team is prioritizing Semien.  Ray (like many players) might simply prefer to not talk contract during the season, in order to focus solely on baseball.  Also of note, Semien is represented by the Wasserman Agency, which has traditionally been more open to in-season negotiating — in the last month alone, Wasserman clients Travis d’Arnaud and Brandon Crawford each inked new deals to remain with their current teams.

Barring a truly massive offer from the Blue Jays, it was probably unlikely that Semien would’ve accepted an extension this close to free agency, as the veteran infielder looks set to land the pricey multi-year deal that eluded him on the open market last year.  Semien didn’t hit well over the first month of the shortened 2020 season, leaving him with only a .223/.305/.374 slash line in 236 total PA even after he hit much better in late September and during the Athletics’ playoff run.  Rather than take a multi-year contract at a lowered cost, Semien opted for a one-year, $18MM deal with Toronto, betting on himself to deliver bigger numbers over a full season.

That bet has paid off handsomely, as Semien hit his 35th homer of the season today, and is now batting .266/.334/.530 over 601 plate appearances.  With the abbreviated 2020 season folded between Semien’s big years in 2019 and 2021, his three-season cumulative total of a .268/.346/.501 slash line over 1579 PA works out to a 128 wRC+, solidly placing him amongst the best middle infielders in baseball.  Semien had been a starting shortstop in Oakland before becoming the Jays’ second baseman this season, to accommodate Bo Bichette at short.

Ray also had something to prove in the wake of a rough 2020 season with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, and he moved quickly to rejoin the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM pact soon after the opening of the official free agent period.  Ray had always been plagued by inconsistency and high walk totals during his five-plus seasons in Arizona, but after working with the Jays’ coaching staff and overhauling his offseason training regimen, Ray has blossomed as a candidate for the AL Cy Young Award.

Including today’s 6 2/3 shutout innings of work against Oakland, Ray has a 2.60 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate over 166 frames.  Perhaps most importantly, Ray has only a six percent walk rate — easily his career best, and in the 82nd percentile of all qualified pitchers this season.  Ray has also gained enough innings to qualify as baseball’s all-time leader in K/9, with an 11.2 total over his eight MLB seasons.

In short, both Semien and Ray project to be two of the offseason’s top free agents, and re-signing both could potentially cost the Blue Jays upwards of $200MM.  While it remains to be seen if the Jays will indeed be able to bring even one of the duo back for 2022 and beyond, money alone shouldn’t be a deterrent.  The signings of George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu are evidence that Toronto is willing to spend big in free agency, and many of the Jays’ young stars are either cost-controlled via arbitration or (in Bichette’s case) are still over a year away from arbitration eligibility.  The Blue Jays also don’t have that much money on the books in future years, creating the possibility that both Semien and Ray could be slotted alongside Springer, Ryu, and possibly major extensions for the likes of Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

The Blue Jays Bought Low And Struck Gold

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With the exception of a major injury, nearly everything that could wrong in a pitcher’s season went wrong for Robbie Ray in 2020. The longtime D-backs lefty posted a career-worst 17.9 percent walk rate, logged his lowest strikeout rate since 2015 and gave up home runs not only at the highest rate of his career — but at the second-highest rate of any pitcher to throw at least 50 innings last year. Things got a bit better following a trade from Arizona to Toronto, but Ray still surrendered 13 runs in 20 2/3 innings, yielded four homers and walked 14 of the 97 batters he faced.

Robbie Ray | Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The subsequent 6.62 ERA marked an alarming decline for a lefty who’d previously solidified himself as a durable mid-rotation arm in Arizona. He’d always been a high-strikeout, high-walk, high-home-run rate pitcher, but from 2015-19 Ray tossed 762 innings of 3.96 ERA ball. That ERA was supported by fielding-independent marks such as FIP (3.92), SIERA (3.80) and xFIP (3.68). All of those numbers went in the wrong direction in 2020.

Prior to last spring’s league shutdown, Ray placed sixth on the initial version of MLBTR’s 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings. He landed ahead of Marcus Stroman on that February ranking, with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes writing at the time that both would likely be eyeing deals north of the four-year, $68MM pacts inked by Miles Mikolas and Nathan Eovaldi. Five years seemed plausible with a big platform year. Instead, Ray’s poor 2020 showing turned him into a clear rebound candidate, which led to him re-upping with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal worth $8MM.

The Jays struck quickly to re-sign Ray, inking that $8MM pact on Nov. 7 of last offseason. Ray was the first free agent of note to sign a Major League deal, and the signing was met with some skepticism when it came to jumping the market to pay him at a relatively strong rate. No one, however, is questioning the signing now.

Ray has been nothing short of brilliant in his second go-around with the Jays. He’s not only bounced back and reestablished himself as a quality big league hurler — he’s elevated his status to another level entirely. Ray’s 2.90 ERA on the season is right in line with his 2.89 mark from a career-best 2017 season, but the other elements of his game suggest this is the best version of the lefty we’ve ever seen.

First and foremost, the strike-throwing issues that have previously plagued Ray with such great frequency have dissipated. He’s walking 6.8 percent of his opponents in 2021 — a career-low mark and an astonishing drop of more than 12 percent from last year’s rate. Ray’s 62.5 percent first-pitch strike rate is the best of his career, as is his 14.9 percent swinging-strike rate and 32.5 percent opponents’ chase rate. His 94.9 mph average fastball, meanwhile, is back in line with peak levels from 2016 after dipping to 92.5 mph as recently as 2019.

As one might expect, the drop in walks and the increasing frequency with which Ray is getting ahead in the count has allowed him to pitch deeper into games. While he’s long been a solid mid-rotation arm, Ray previously averaged about 5 1/3 innings per start (5.44), regularly running up high pitch counts and leaving plenty of outs for his bullpen to pick up. This year, he’s averaging just shy of six inning per outing (5.92) — and getting stronger as the season goes on. He’s completed five frames in all but two of his starts this year and, since June 1, he’s averaging better than six innings per outing with six-plus frames completed in 11 of those 13 appearances.

An extra couple of outs per game might not sound that substantial, but it’s the difference between a starter pitching 175-180 frames or pitching about 195-200 innings over the course of a full season. And, at a time when other starters are pitching fewer innings than ever before, that extra handful of outs every time Ray takes the mound goes a long way toward helping to keep the team’s relief corps fresh.

So, what’s driving the changes? Ray’s pitch mix has changed somewhat, as he’s throwing his four-seamer at a career-high 60.6 percent rate and has upped his slider usage to 27.6 percent. He’s largely a two-pitch starter at this point, although he throws his curveball and changeup just enough — 7.5 percent and 4.2 percent — to keep those offerings in the back of his opponents’ minds. It’s a definite change from recent years, where Ray was throwing his curveball anywhere from 15 to 21 percent of the time.

Ray also spoke in Spring Training of how he suspected that changes to his arm slot early in the 2020 campaign contributed to his struggles. A look at his profile on Brooks Baseball indeed supports that thinking; both the horizontal and vertical release points on Ray’s four-seamer and slider have changed considerably since his early 2020 work. During his current hot streak (since June 1), the vertical release point on Ray’s four-seamer, in particular, has dipped to previously unseen levels. It’s always possible that hitters will adjust to these mechanical changes, but it’s easier to buy into a rebound when there are tangible changes to a player’s approach, which is the case in this instance.

It should be noted that Ray, like most pitchers, still has his flaws. He’s far too homer prone, yielding 1.59 long balls per nine innings pitched, and no one should expect him to sustain a 90.1 percent strand rate when the league average is 72 percent. His .264 batting average on balls in play is also a career-low and is probably due to tick upward toward his career .307 mark — particularly since Ray’s hard-hit rate and opponents’ exit velocity are higher than the league average.

That said, Ray also ranks alongside some of the game’s best pitchers — and among the upcoming class of free agents — with his brilliant strikeout/walk profile. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this season, Ray ranks eighth with a 30.2 percent strikeout rate and is tied for 35th with that better-than-average 6.8 percent walk rate. His 23.4 K-BB% sits tenth in that same set of pitchers. He’s leading American League pitchers with 4.4 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference’s version of the stat.

There will undoubtedly be some skeptics when Ray returns to the open market this offseason. His 2020 season was an unmitigated disaster, and we only have one season’s worth of data showing this newfound command of the strike zone and ability to work six-plus innings on the regular. That said, even the 2015-19 version of Ray was a very solid starter, and it’s the 2020 campaign that looks like the clear outlier at this point.

Outside of 28 2/3 innings as a rookie with the Tigers back in 2014, he’s also spent his entire career pitching in rather hitter-friendly settings. A club in a more spacious park would surely be intrigued by whether the move to a more advantageous home setting might help to curb some of that penchant for serving up the long ball, at least to a slight extent. He’s given up 1.50 homers per nine when pitching at home in his career, compared to 1.22 on the road. Unsurprisingly, there’s a spacious gap in ERA as well (4.54 at home, 3.65 on the road).

With a strong, healthy finish to the season, Ray should return to the market as one of the most in-demand arms. It’s a deep crop of free-agent starters, as he’ll join the likes of Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Kevin Gausman, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Marcus Stroman, Anthony DeSclafani, Noah Syndergaard, Jon Gray and the breakout Carlos Rodon. At 30 years old, Ray will be among the youngest of the bunch, however, and he’s never been on the injured list with a major arm injury.

There’s a good chance the Jays will make a qualifying offer and that he’ll reject said offer in search of a lucrative multi-year deal. Even with draft compensation attached to him, Ray ought to have a wide range of suitors this time around. The four- or five-year deal that seemed feasible back in Spring Training 2020 looks more plausible than ever.

Blue Jays Activate Robbie Ray From Injured List

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TODAY: Ray has been officially activated, the Jays announced.

APRIL 11: The Blue Jays are preparing to activate left-hander Robbie Ray from the injured list in advance of their upcoming series against the Yankees, manager Charlie Montoyo tells reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’ll get the start tomorrow evening against New York.

Ray re-signed with Toronto over the offseason after the Jays acquired him in a midseason trade with the Diamondbacks. His 2021 regular season debut was delayed a couple weeks by a bruised elbow he suffered during the spring. With Ray making his return to the rotation, the Jays will bump Tanner Roark to the bullpen for now, per Montoyo.

In other Toronto injury news, star outfielder George Springer is still not nearing a return from his recent quad injury (via Nicholson-Smith). Springer’s debut with the Jays’ was delayed by an oblique strain, and he hurt his quad while rehabbing the original injury. The three-time All-Star has now recovered from the oblique problem, but the leg issue will keep him out of the lineup for a while longer.

AL Injury Notes: Astros, L. Bard, Ray, Pinder

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Astros southpaw Framber Valdez hasn’t pitched in the majors this season on account of a broken finger, though he did return to throwing from flat ground Thursday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. While general manager James Click called Thursday’s session a “tremendous step forward” for Valdez, there still isn’t a clear timetable for a potential 2021 debut. Valdez broke out last season with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball, an elite 60 percent groundball rate, and terrific strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 5.6, respectively.

More injury-related items from Houston and a couple of other American League teams…

  • Angels right-handed reliever Luke Bard will undergo season-ending hip surgery, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to report. He’ll need six to eight months to recover from the procedure. Bard was already set to miss a significant amount of time this season, as the Angels sent him to the 60-day injured list shortly before the campaign began. Although the 30-year-old’s high spin rate has made him a potential breakout candidate since he debuted with the Angels in 2018, he has only managed a 5.05 ERA through 66 innings – including 5 1/3 frames in 2020.
  • The Blue Jays hope lefty Robbie Ray will return to the rotation this week, according to Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star (via Twitter). The southpaw threw 63 pitches in a simulated game yesterday. The last hurdle to clear is just seeing how he feels over the next couple of days.
  • The Athletics placed infielder/outfielder Chad Pinder on the IL because of a left knee sprain, but it appears he’ll sit out for a lot longer than the 10-day minimum. Pinder is is week to week and not participating in any baseball activities, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. The 29-year-old opened the season as one of the Athletics’ main outfielders before going down, and they’ve since used Ka’ai Tom, Stephen Piscotty, Tony Kemp and Seth Brown in the corners to help fill the void.
  • Astros reliever Enoli Paredes left their game Thursday with a trainer, Rome tweets. The righty exited after throwing just three strikes out of 13 pitches and walking the only two batters he faced. Control has been a problem in all three appearances this year for Paredes, who has walked six hitters in 1 1/3 innings. Paredes also put up a below-average walk rate of 12.2 percent in his rookie year in 2020, but he still notched a 3.05 ERA (with a much less inspiring 4.63 SIERA) over 20 2/3 frames. [UPDATE: Paredes “did something to his side,” manager Dusty Baker said (via Rome). The Astros should know more Friday.]

George Springer, Robbie Ray To Begin Season On Injured List

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Two of the Blue Jays’ key offseason signings – center fielder George Springer and left-hander Robbie Ray – will miss the start of the season, manager Charlie Montoyo announced to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet and other reporters (Twitter links). Springer has been dealing with a Grade 2 oblique strain since last week, while Ray has a bruised elbow.

Indications before Wednesday were that Springer wouldn’t be ready for the season opener, but this is nonetheless a disappointing way for the former Astro’s Toronto tenure to begin. The three-time All-Star signed the richest free-agent guarantee in the sport this past offseason – a six-year, $150MM contract – but will miss at least the first six games of 2021 for the Blue Jays. However, the playoff hopefuls still have a capable outfield trio with Randal Grichuk set to fill in for Springer alongside Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez in the corners.

Ray wasn’t nearly as expensive as Springer in free agency, but it did cost the Jays $8MM on a one-year pact to re-sign him. Ray has typically been a capable mid-rotation starter, though he slumped to a 6.62 ERA/5.49 SIERA with a similarly woeful 17.9 percent walk rate in 51 2/3 innings between Arizona and Toronto last season. The Jays are betting on a rebound, but that will have to wait for now, leaving Ross Stripling, Tanner Roark, Steven Matz, T.J. Zeuch and Anthony Kay as options behind ace Hyun Jin Ryu heading into the season.

Kirby Yates Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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MARCH 25: Yates underwent successful Tommy John surgery, Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic tweets. He’ll miss the entire season.

MARCH 23, 10:15pm: Yates’ elbow was also an issue during the offseason, as the Braves backed out of a one-year, $9MM guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The Blue Jays also reduced his $8.5MM deal, per Rosenthal. Toronto knew at the time that Atlanta pulled its offer off the table.

3:38pm: The Blue Jays received some unwelcome injury news Tuesday, Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic was among those to report. Right-handed reliever Kirby Yates will likely undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season, outfielder George Springer has a Grade 2 oblique strain, and lefty Robbie Ray suffered a bruised elbow.

An elite end-of-game option with the Padres from 2018-19, Yates threw 4 1/3 innings last season as he dealt with elbow issues. That didn’t stop the Blue Jays from taking a one-year, $5.5MM chance on him in free agency this past offseason, but the would-be closer was diagnosed with a flexor strain Monday. It now looks as if Yates may never pitch for the club, which could lean on the likes of Jordan Romano, David Phelps, Rafael Dolis and Tyler Chatwood for saves in his absence.

The news on Springer and Ray also comes off as alarming, though neither injury appears especially serious. Toronto is hopeful that Springer, a former Astros standout who signed a whopping six-year, $150MM guarantee in the offseason, will be ready for Opening Day. Likewise, the Jays could have Ray ready for the start of the season. The team re-signed him to a one-year, $8MM pact in free agency.

Quick Hits: Braves, Rosenthal, Ohtani, Ray, Cherington

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The Braves had interest in Trevor Rosenthal before the reliever signed with the A’s, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman writes (Twitter link).  With Rosenthal now off the market, Atlanta is still looking for right-handed relief help, and Heyman wonders if the Braves could turn to a familiar face in Shane Greene.  Apart from some consideration from the Twins earlier this month, there hasn’t been much buzz about Greene this offseason, despite his 2.39 ERA over 90 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season.  Greene doesn’t have a big fastball and his peripherals haven’t been overly impressive, however, which could explain why he still available heading into his age-32 season.  Atlanta did recently add veteran righty Nate Jones to their bullpen mix on a minor league deal.

Some more notes from around baseball…

  • Most players make changes in the wake of a rough season, but Shohei Ohtani faced the increased challenge of overhauling himself as both a hitter and a pitcher after a 2020 campaign the Angels star called “pathetic.”  Ohtani’s offseason endeavors included a trip to Driveline Baseball, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports, and Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo told reporters that the pitcher/DH has adopted a new training regiment, a new diet, and made changes to his swing.  Ohtani’s training has been helped by the fact that he is now recovered from a flexor strain that limited him to 1 2/3 innings as a pitcher in 2020, which came after not pitching at all in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery.
  • Robbie Ray’s foray into the open market didn’t last long, as the southpaw re-signed with the Blue Jays shortly after the free agent period opened in early November.  This gave Ray more time to spend with Jays coaches on trying to correct his form following a mediocre 2020 season, Ray told reporters (including The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm).  Ray made changes to his arm slot prior to the 2020 season, which may have led to such disastrous results as a 6.62 ERA and 45 walks over just 51 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.
  • The Pirates are still in the early stages of a rebuild, and GM Ben Cherington gave an outline of the team’s basic plan to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and other reporters.  Modeled after how other clubs have undergone rebuilds, Cherington broke it down into three steps: talent accumulation, developing that talent, and then adding to that talent base through trades and free agency.  The general manager also made it clear that the Bucs are still in the first step, as “whatever improvement we’ve seen in our overall organizational talent — and I think we have seen some improvements in the last year — it’s not enough.  We’ve got to keep going.  We’ve got to be one of the stronger organizations just in terms of overall talent to give ourselves the best chance to win.”

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners

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The Blue Jays brought back Robbie Ray on a one-year, $8MM deal today, but recent history suggests they could still add more to the rotation writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Davidi notes that the Jays struck early last year in signing Chase Anderson, but that certainly didn’t slow their free agent activity. The Jays do seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Tanner Roark more-or-less guaranteed to hold down rotation spots. Ross Stripling can also hang in the rotation, while Anthony Kay could get a look at some point, as could a whole host of arms from their Triple-A corps. The bullpen is stocked with former starters who can handle multiple innings at a time, which could allow someone like Pearson to see some time out there if he struggles to stay healthy while taking on more innings. That sort of strategy would make room for another arm or two if the Blue Jays like the price.

  • The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said he doesn’t expect next year to provide many starters at all who reach the 170-inning mark, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly an interesting marker, given that it wasn’t that long ago that 200-inning campaigns were considered the standard bearer. It’s true that the Mariners might be more conservative than most in this regard: they’re planning to field a six-man rotation in 2021. In 2019, 51 pitchers crossed the 170-inning threshold. Still, Dipoto’s projection isn’t exactly laughable – nobody registered even 100 innings in the shortened season, and it’s might be unreasonable to expect starters to jump back to pre-COVID standards.

 

Blue Jays Re-Sign Robbie Ray

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The Blue Jays have announced that free agent left-hander Robbie Ray has been re-signed.  ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the southpaw will receive a one-year contract worth $8MM.

It was a tough season overall for Ray, who posted a 6.62 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, and a 7.8 BB/9 (highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched) over 51 2/3 combined innings for the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining, Ray’s numbers over his 20 2/3 innings with the Jays were better than his numbers with the D’Backs, though even a 4.79 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 with Toronto is nothing to write home about.

Robbie RayStill, the Jays clearly saw enough to welcome Ray back into the fold and line him up for a spot in Toronto’s rotation.  Passan notes that the Blue Jays intend to use Ray as a starting pitcher, adding him to a rotation mix that includes Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, and Ross Stripling.  It’s safe to assume that the Jays aren’t done exploring the pitching market, given how Ray, Roark, and Stripling all didn’t pitch well in 2020 and Pearson also struggled (and had some injury problems) in his first MLB season.

Home runs have always been an issue for Ray over his seven-year career, though his control went from being a concern to a full-on problem in 2020.  The one constant, however, has been strikeouts, as Ray has an 11.1 career K/9 and even led the league in that category in 2017 (12.1).  That season was Ray’s peak, as he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting and seemed to be blossoming as a front-of-the-rotation starter.  However, Ray was more okay than spectacular in 2018-19, as his walk totals crept upwards, his ground-ball numbers declined, and batters began to generate more hard contact against his arsenal.

Ray’s fastball velocity also dropped by almost two miles an hour, from a 94.3mph average in 2017 to a 92.4 average in 2019.  His velocity clicked back up to 93.7mph last season, and while there wasn’t much to like about Ray’s Statcast metrics in 2020, he still finished in the 80th percentile in fastball spin rate.

Ray is still only 29, and the one-year commitment gives the Blue Jays a chance to take a longer look at Ray without sacrificing any flexibility in future payrolls.  Toronto is thought to be one of the few teams who has some spending capacity this offseason, and this early strike to re-sign Ray (when most clubs reportedly have yet to even figure out their 2021 budget situations) indicates that the Jays could be aggressive players as they look to build on their wild card berth from the past year.  MLBTR ranked Ray 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, correctly predicting him for a one-year contract but for only $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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