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Robbie Ray Declines Opt-Out Clause In Giants Contract

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Left-hander Robbie Ray has declined the opt-out clause in his contract, meaning that he’ll remain with the Giants for both the 2025 and 2026 seasons.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report the news.  The five-year, $115MM pact Ray signed with the Mariners prior to the 2022 season was slightly backloaded, and thus Ray will earn $25MM in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

It’s not terribly surprising that Ray is taking the proverbial bird in the hand here. He underwent ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, commonly known as Tommy John surgery, and a flexor tendon repair in May of 2023. While recovering from that operation, the Mariners traded him to the Giants.

Ray was able to get back on the mound with San Francisco in 2024, but made seven starts with an unimpressive 4.70 earned run average before spending the month of September on the injured list due to a left hamstring strain.

Pitchers with injury question marks can still get paid but Ray would be hard-pressed to find more than $50MM on the open market. Carlos Rodón had plenty of injury absences in his early career but was able to secure a two-year, $44MM deal from the Giants going into 2022. However, Rodón had just made 24 starts for the White Sox in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA and was going into his age-29 season. Ray, on the other hand, is now 33 years old and has made eight starts over the past two years with a 5.03 ERA.

Taking all that into consideration, Ray’s best financial move was to keep this guarantee. He’ll return to the Giants next year and hopefully get back on track. While it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to get back to his Cy Young winning form from 2021, getting even part of the way back there would be nice. The year that he earned that hardware, he made 32 starts for the Blue Jays with a 2.84 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.

One Giant starter is departing, as Blake Snell has opted out of his deal. Next year’s rotation in San Francisco projects to include Ray, Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison. Perhaps Jordan Hicks will get another shot at starting or maybe he’ll be back in the bullpen. Guys like Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck, Hayden Birdsong and others would also be in the mix.

If the club looks to bolster that group, the free agent market will be headlined by guys like Snell, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and plenty of others. The trade market should feature Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and more.

Giants Place Robbie Ray On Injured List

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The Giants have placed left-hander Robbie Ray on the 15-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Right-hander Landen Roupp has been recalled in a corresponding move. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to relay the transaction on X.

Ray, 32, was acquired in the offseason with an eye toward the former AL Cy Young winner serving as a second-half reinforcement in the rotation. He underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season and was subsequently shelved through late July.

While Ray wowed with five no-hit innings and eight punchouts against the Dodgers in his return on July 24, he’s lasted a combined 25 2/3 innings across his next six starts and posted an ERA north of 5.00 in that time. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.70 earned run average with a hefty 33.3% strikeout rate against a problematic 11.6% walk rate in 30 2/3 frames. He’s also served up six long balls — an untenable average of 1.76 homers per nine innings.

When or whether Ray returns in 2024 remains to be seen, but the Giants still have him signed for another two seasons. Ray actually has the right to opt out of his contract at season’s end, but he’s guaranteed $25MM in each of the next two seasons. Given Ray’s shaky performance on the heels of Tommy John rehab, and now a hamstring injury, it seems likely he’ll forgo that right and take the remaining two-year, $50MM guarantee on his deal.

The hope, of course, will be that Ray can return to form next season — if not all the way to his 2021 Cy Young form then at least to his 2022 levels, when he pitched 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball for the Mariners while showing an appealing K-BB profile. That’d position him to join Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and perhaps young arms like Hayden Birdsong and Carson Whisenhunt in the San Francisco rotation.

In the short-term, the Giants will go with a rotation featuring Webb, Harrison, Birdsong and the resurgent Blake Snell. It’s not clear who’ll step into the fifth spot in Ray’s absence. Not long after the trade deadline, when discussing the decision not to move Snell, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opined that the Giants possessed the best starting staff in the sport. Perhaps the Giants are indeed among the most talented groups, but it’s a top-heavy unit lacking depth and consistency — and Ray’s injury only underscores that.

Mason Black, Kai-Wei Teng and Trevor McDonald are all on the 40-man roster, but none has found any big league success (or even pitched especially well in Triple-A this year, for that matter). The Giants are also no stranger to patching things over with bullpen games and could go that route, particularly if Ray is only expected to require a short-term stay on the injured list.

Robbie Ray Exits With Left Hamstring Tightness

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Giants left-hander Robbie Ray exited his start today in the fourth inning with left hamstring tightness. He was facing his former team, the Mariners, and pitching in Seattle for the first time since he suffered a season-ending injury during his debut start of the 2023 campaign. This time, the 2021 AL Cy Young winner is hoping the injury will not mark the end of his season.

The 32-year-old will go for an MRI tomorrow, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Having never dealt with hamstring injuries in the past, he was unable to offer much insight into his timeline. Still, he expressed optimism that he wouldn’t be out for too long. According to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, Ray described the injury as “minor” and suggested he left the game before it became “anything significant.” The southpaw has tried to “push through injuries in the past” and did not want to make the same mistake this time around.

While Ray himself said it’s too early to know if he’ll require a trip to the injured list (per Maria Guardado of MLB.com), manager Bob Melvin implied that Ray could miss time even if the issue turns out to be mild. “Those things don’t typically take a couple of days [to heal],” the skipper explained.

Ray has made seven starts for the Giants this year since coming off the injured list at the end of July. Including his outing this afternoon, he has pitched 30 2/3 innings with a 4.70 ERA and 3.52 SIERA. San Francisco is 4-3 in his starts. While he hasn’t always looked his best, he will nonetheless be difficult for the Giants to replace.

If Ray only needs to miss a single start, Melvin could get by relying on bulk relievers like Sean Hjelle and Spencer Bivens to cover. Hjelle took over for Ray this afternoon and tossed 2 2/3 innings. He has thrown at least two frames in 16 of his 45 appearances this year; his longest outing was 3 1/3 against the Braves earlier this month. Bivens made one start earlier this year, and he has gone at least two innings in six of his 15 relief appearances.

Meanwhile, if Ray winds up on the IL, the Giants could recall rookie right-hander Mason Black, who made four appearances (three starts) for the big league club back in May. Unfortunately for Black, his first few MLB starts didn’t exactly go according to plan; the 24-year-old gave up 14 runs in 14 1/3 innings during that brief cup of coffee. He also has a 4.59 ERA and 5.21 FIP in 20 starts this year at Triple-A. Nonetheless, Black is a live arm on the 40-man roster with experience starting in the majors.

Right-hander Tristan Beck is another option to fill in for Ray, but it’s unclear how many more rehab outings he needs before he’s ready to return to the Giants; the 28-year-old has been on the 60-day IL all season after undergoing surgery to remove an aneurysm from his arm. What’s more, Beck has limited experience starting at the MLB level, and he has given up 13 runs (11 earned) over 10 2/3 rehab innings at Triple-A. All this to say, it’s critical for the Giants that Ray gets back on the mound as quickly as possible. Sitting five games back in the NL Wild Card race, their postseason hopes are already dwindling. Losing Ray for a prolonged period could be the final nail in their proverbial coffin.

Giants Reinstate Robbie Ray, Option Luis Matos

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Robbie Ray is officially back from the injured list. San Francisco reinstated the southpaw from the 60-day IL to take the ball tonight against the Dodgers. The Giants also added recent waiver claim Derek Hill to their active roster. San Francisco optioned Luis Matos and Randy Rodriguez to Triple-A Sacramento in corresponding moves. To open a spot on the 40-man roster for Ray, the Giants moved Keaton Winn to the 60-day IL.

Ray makes his team debut after being acquired from the Mariners over the winter. Seattle and San Francisco lined up on an out of nowhere swap of veterans on big contracts. The Giants shipped Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger to Seattle to take a flier on Ray, who was about halfway through his rehab from last May’s Tommy John procedure. The M’s flipped DeSclafani to the Twins, with whom he suffered a Spring Training injury and underwent season-ending surgery. Haniger has underperformed for a second straight year.

The Giants hope their end of the deal yields better results. Ray is more than 14 months removed from his most recent MLB pitch. He’s one of the higher-upside pitchers in baseball when healthy. He won the American League Cy Young award when he turned in a 2.84 ERA with an MLB-best 248 strikeouts for the Blue Jays in 2021. That led the Mariners to sign him to a five-year free agent pact. Ray posted good but not elite numbers in year one, working to a 3.71 earned run average through 189 innings. He made all of one start last season before suffering the injury that sent him under the knife.

If the Giants get even the ’22 version of Ray, that’d be a major boost to their rotation. He joins last year’s Cy Young winner Blake Snell as high-risk, high-reward lefties. Logan Webb is one of the game’s best starters, while Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks round out the group. Harrison has a 3.86 ERA over 17 starts in his first full MLB season. Hicks started the season very well but has seemingly shown signs of fatigue lately in his first extended look out of the rotation.

Winn was also part of the rotation early in the season. The ground-ball specialist took the ball 12 times but struggled to a 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 frames. He has been out for about a month with elbow inflammation. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported earlier this week that Winn is still feeling soreness and has been shut down from throwing (X link). He’s eligible to return at the end of August, but it now seems in doubt if he’ll make it back this season.

On the position player side, Hill steps into the outfield at Matos’ expense. They’re each righty hitters with the ability to play all three positions. Matos has struggled to a .217/.238/.333 slash over 40 games. He’s also had some defensive lapses that’ll lead the Giants to send him back to Triple-A. Matos is only 22 and rates as one of the better prospects in the system. He owns a .295/.358/.536 slash over 76 career Triple-A games.

Giants’ Zaidi Downplays Need For Major Deadline Acquisition

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At 45-47, the Giants sit ten games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. They’re two and a half games back in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot, with three teams (including division-rival San Diego and Arizona) in order to claim that spot. The Pirates sit just a half-game behind San Francisco in the standings. The Cubs are only one game behind. It’s a tightly contested bunch of fringe contenders, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi isn’t publicly broadcasting an urgency to make a splash to separate his club from the pack.

“When I look at our team, we have pretty solid players at every spot in the field,” Zaidi said last night (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “We have a rotation that’s getting healthier and a bullpen that’s done a nice job. So nothing jumps out as a spot where we need an emergency plug in.”

The rotation health to which Zaidi is referring includes not only reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who returned from the IL and made his best start of the season last night, but also veteran hurlers Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb. Ray, acquired in an offseason swap with the Mariners, is on the mend from 2023 Tommy John surgery. Cobb, whose $10MM option was exercised following the 2023 season, has had a longer-than-expected recovery from hip surgery. Both veterans are currently on minor league rehab assignments that could see them activated later this month.

In some respects, this was always the plan. After signing free agents Snell and Jordan Hicks to pair with ace Logan Webb, the Giants patched together the rest of their first-half rotation with a series of in-house promotions and bullpen games. Injuries to Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn  and Kyle Harrison have tested their depth at times.

The season-long results aren’t great overall. Giants starters rank dead last in the majors with 428 innings pitched and sit 22nd in each of ERA (4.48), strikeout rate (20.8%) and walk rate (8.3%). The impending returns of Ray and Cobb could well  help turn the tides, but it’s also worth noting that Hicks has significantly tailed off after a hot start — perhaps no surprise given that he’s now into uncharted waters (in terms of workload) as a reliever making the conversion to starting pitching.

While the Giants can hope to soon have a rotation of Webb, Ray, Cobb, Harrison and Hicks — a strong quintet indeed if all are healthy — the question of depth persists. Winn has been out since June 21 due to elbow inflammation and has not begun a rehab assignment. Beck has been out all season after requiring surgery to address an aneurysm in his shoulder. Rookie Mason Black has been hit hard in three starts. Fellow debut hurler Hayden Birdsong has fared a bit better but hardly been dominant through three trips to the hill. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt has started 18 games in Triple-A but has a 5.79 ERA and 11.7% walk rate.

Similarly, the bullpen has its own slate of questions. San Francisco relievers have thrown more innings (383 1/3) than any team in MLB, as one would naturally expect for a team with the game’s fewest rotation innings. Part of that is attributable to their frequent use of bullpen games — a strategy that can take its toll on a relief corps over time. The Giants have received strong work from Ryan Walker, Sean Hjelle, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Rogers this season. Closer Camilo Doval has been less effective than in the past, with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA and worrisome 14.2% walk rate (the worst mark of his career). Rookie right-hander Randy Rodriguez has been decent in middle relief, but fellow rookie Landen Roupp and veteran Luke Jackson have struggled. As is the case with the rotation, the bullpen has a talented core group but could certainly stand to be deepened.

On the position player side of things, the Giants have received strong production from each of catcher, first base and third base. Patrick Bailey has emerged as a cornerstone piece behind the dish. Veteran OBP machine LaMonte Wade Jr. is a sound option at first base. Matt Chapman is hitting well and playing plus defense at the hot corner.

In the outfield, the Giants have seen former top prospect Heliot Ramos break out as an All-Star. Michael Conforto’s recent hot streak (.289/.391/.658 over his past 15 games) has pulled him back to above-average offensive production on the whole. Mike Yastrzemski has underwhelmed thus far and will presumably platoon with Luis Matos for the time being. Jorge Soler has produced average offense out of the DH spot but isn’t going anywhere in the first season of a three-year, $42MM deal.

The middle infield is far less set in stone. The recent DFA of Nick Ahmed has Tyler Fitzgerald and Brett Wisely ticketed for frequent reps there. Both are hitting well but doing so with some particularly good fortune on balls in play. Second baseman Thairo Estrada just returned from the injured list but has batted only .227/.260/.371 in 315 plate appearances when healthy — a far cry from the .266/.320/.416 he slashed from 2021-23.

Perhaps Zaidi is correct in suggesting that there’s no glaring need where the Giants are performing with disastrous results and no reinforcements on the horizon. The sixth-year president of baseball operations spoke of the importance of allowing players like Fitzgerald and Matos to come to the big leagues and feel they have an opportunity to earn playing time, just as Ramos has.

At the same time, banking on production from so many unproven assets is a risky proposition for a team that, despite a sub-.500 record, has a legitimate playoff chance. It’s always a fine line to walk, giving players like Fitzgerald and Matos chances at playing time while also striving to remain competitive. The Giants are also sitting on a club-record $208MM payroll and are presently about $16MM north of the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. It’s not clear just how much ownership is willing to tack onto that record spending — if they’re willing to at all.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Giants Sign Austin Warren To Major League Deal

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The Giants announced to reporters, including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, that they have signed right-hander Austin Warren to a one-year major league deal. Lefty Robbie Ray was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Slusser adds that Warren, a client of the Ballengee Group, will make $755K this year. That’s just barely over this year’s $740K league minimum.

Warren, 28, was designated for assignment by the Angels last week. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and is still recovering. Since injured players can’t be put on outright waivers, the Angels had to either trade him or release him and opted for the latter.

The righty has 32 games of major league experience, dating from his 2021 debut to the early parts of the 2023 season prior to his surgery. He has a 3.55 earned run average in his 38 innings, striking out just 19.4% of opponents but walking just 6.3% of them and keeping 44.3% of balls in play on the ground.

Over the past three years, he’s tossed 92 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, pitching for the Salt Lake Bees in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In that time, he had a 3.50 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and kept roughly half of batted balls down in the dirt.

The Giants are clearly hoping that he can return from his Tommy John layoff in good form. Assuming they don’t expect him back in the first two months of the season, he will be transferred to the 60-day IL once the club needs his roster spot. Once activated, he has a couple of minor league options and can be kept in Triple-A if he doesn’t earn his way into the big league picture.

The bullpen in San Francisco would appear to have some innings available. Camilo Doval, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers and Luke Jackson will be in four spots. Apart from that, none of the other relievers on the roster have even a year of service time. If Warren is still on the 40-man at season’s end, he can be retained for future seasons as he currently has just under two years of major league service time.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Hernandez, Pederson, Ray

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While veteran utility player Enrique Hernandez is drawing interest from the Angels among several other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Halos fear that Hernandez prefers to return to the Dodgers, with whom he played from 2015 to 2020 before the club re-acquired him at the 2023 trade deadline in a deal with the Red Sox.

Hernandez, 32, sports the versatility to play anywhere on the diamond except catcher. While the veteran struggled at the plate during his time in Boston last year, he enjoyed a resurgence upon returning to L.A. with a respectable .262/.308/.423 slash line in 185 plate appearances. If Hernandez were able to replicate those offensive numbers over a full season in 2024, that roughly league average offense and his positional versatility would combine to make him among the more valuable bench options in the game. With that being said, Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers appear to have their priorities focused elsewhere as they search for a high-leverage bullpen arm to complement the likes of Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips.

Dodgers bullpen arms posted a strong 3.42 ERA last season, the third-best figure in the majors behind only the Yankees and Brewers. Nonetheless, it’s sensible for the club to look for relief upgrades. After all, the club’s production out of the bullpen dramatically improved upon their acquisition of veteran righty Ryan Brasier, who posted an eye-popping 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances with L.A. after being acquired from the Red Sox last June. Prior to Brasier’s arrival, the Dodgers’ bullpen was struggling to an ERA of 4.94, bottom-two in the majors alongside the lowly A’s. To that end, Rosenthal suggests the club could look to reunite with Brasier or perhaps even longtime closer Kenley Jansen, who the Red Sox are reportedly shopping this winter.

More from around the NL West…

  • Rosenthal also discusses the recent deal between the Diamondbacks and lefty slugger Joc Pederson. Rosenthal notes that prior to accepting a fourth consecutive one-year deal in free agency Pederson indicated to Arizona that he hopes to “restore his value” with the club in 2024 before returning to free agency in search of a multi-year pact. For Pederson, Rosenthal suggests that would involve showing he’s more than a platoon DH. The Diamondbacks’ outfield mix is a fairly crowded one with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll entrenched as regulars alongside a litany of potential options like Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, and even Dominic Fletcher. Each of the aforementioned names is a stronger defender in the outfield than Pederson, so the 31-year-old could instead look to boost his stock by playing more regularly against southpaws, against whom he has taken just 606 plate appearances during his entire career.
  • Newly-acquired Giants southpaw Robbie Ray spoke to reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) as he rehabs from UCL and flexor tendon surgery. The 32-year-old southpaw said it feels as though he has a “brand new elbow,” and that he hopes to begin throwing off a mound early on during Spring Training. In terms of a timetable for his return to the big league pitching staff, Ray suggests that a return around the All-Star break would be a “best-case scenario.” The 2021 AL Cy Young award winner, Ray posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.94 FIP in 65 starts with the Blue Jays and Mariners the past three seasons, though only one of those starts came in 2023 before Ray went under the knife back in May of last year. His eventual return should bolster a San Francisco rotation that currently figures to feature Logan Webb, Ross Stripling, and newly-signed righty Jordan Hicks alongside youngsters Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn.

MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
  • Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mariners Trade Robbie Ray To Giants For Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani

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The Giants and Mariners have completed a trade, per announcements from both clubs, that will send left-hander Robbie Ray to the Giants, with outfielder Mitch Haniger, right-hander Anthony DeSclafani and cash considerations going to the Mariners. It’s an out-of-nowhere trade involving significant pieces going in both directions. Per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, it’s approximately $6MM going to Seattle.

“As we continue to build out our team for 2024 and beyond, we feel this trade accomplishes a couple of our objectives,” said president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto in the official announcement. “In Mitch, we get a player we know well, and hold in very high regard, as another piece for our outfield, while Anthony – who can start or pitch out of the ‘pen – gives us depth in our pitching staff. And the deal allows us to put the best team possible on the field from Opening Day on.

“I do want to thank Robbie for his time in Seattle. On the field and in the clubhouse, he was a key part of taking us to the postseason in 2022 and in allowing us to remain in the race down to the final days in 2023. He provided leadership to our young pitchers that will be felt here for years to come. We wish he and his family nothing but the best in San Francisco.”

Ray, now 32, won the American League Cy Young with the Blue Jays in 2021 and parlayed that into a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners, with the ability to opt out after three seasons. His first year with Seattle was strong, as he made 32 starts with a 3.71 earned run average. He struck out 27.4% of batters faced while issuing walks at just an 8% clip. But in 2023, he made just one appearance before being shut down and eventually requiring elbow surgery to both repair his flexor tendon and reconstruct his ulnar collateral ligament.

As Ray sat out the rest of the 2023 season, the Seattle rotation actually managed to fare well in his absence. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were in the front, with prospects Bryce Miller Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo stepping up to help out. All six of those players were still under club control going into 2024, giving the Mariners something of a rotation surplus that led to some trade speculation.

They have held tight to that group so far and could have had Ray rejoin the rotation later in the year, perhaps as soon as midseason. But instead, it seems they have decided to exchange him for players that can help them throughout the entire year. Ray had a full no-trade clause for 2022 and 2023 but could be moved without his input now that the calendar has flipped to 2024.

For the Giants, their rotation was inconsistent in 2023 as they were arguably the club that was the least committed to traditional starter usage. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb were mainstays but pitchers like Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea and DeSclafani were often moved to the bullpen or the injured list or both.

Looking ahead to 2024, it’s possible that the rotation will again evolve over the course of the season. Cobb underwent hip surgery and may not be ready for the beginning of the campaign, meaning he and Ray will be jumping into the mix once they are healthy. But at the start of the season, Webb currently figures to be joined by Stripling, but with plenty of uncertainty beyond that. Younger pitchers such as Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck could be in the mix but none of that group even has a full year in the big leagues to this point. But with Cobb and Ray hopping on board along the way, the rotation could be in a much different place at the end of the season.

Of course, there’s nothing to suggest that the club is done with their offseason moves. There’s still over a month until Spring Training and the Giants have been connected to big name free agents like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Giants are still in on Snell even after this trade. There are also plenty of other free agents still available if the Giants don’t nab any of those three.

In exchange for Ray, the Mariners will bolster their lineup with a familiar face, as Haniger was with the club from 2017 to 2022. Health was an ongoing issue, including missing the entire 2020 season, but he was a tremendous offensive asset when on the field. He hit 107 home runs in his 530 games during those seasons, slashing .263/.337/.480 for a wRC+ of 124.

After reaching free agency, he signed with the Giants on a three-year, $43.5MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out opportunity after the second season. His first year in San Francisco didn’t go well, as he made trips to the injured list for a left oblique strain, fractured right forearm and low back strain. He only played 61 games and hit a tepid .209/.266/.365 when he was in the lineup.

The Giants recently signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their center fielder, which will nudge Mike Yastrzemski over into the corner outfield mix alongside Michael Conforto. There could have been room for Haniger in there still with the designated hitter slot, but the Giants also have Wilmer Flores as a good candidate for that spot, perhaps making Haniger more useful in Seattle than in San Francisco.

The Mariners did a lot of subtracting from their lineup in the early parts of the offseason. They didn’t make a qualifying offer to Teoscar Hernández, then traded away Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in separate deals. That removed three potent but strikeout-prone bats from the lineup as the Mariners looked to find more contact and juggle their finances amid uncertainty around their broadcast revenue.

They have subsequently switched their focus to additions, signing Mitch Garver to serve as a backup catcher/designated hitter and now Haniger will join the corner outfield mix. Haniger won’t help too much with the strikeout issues, as he’s been punched out at a rate of 24.5% or higher in each of the past four full seasons. But his right-handed bat should pair well with lefties likes Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe. Another left-handed outfielder, Luke Raley, was also acquired from the Rays today in a separate trade. Haniger doesn’t have huge platoon splits but his 129 wRC+ against lefties in his career is a few points better than his 114 versus righties.

There’s also DeSclafani heading to Seattle, adding to their pitching staff. He had some solid seasons as a mid-rotation guy with the Reds but struggled badly in the shortened 2020 season, an all-timed down year as he was heading into free agency. He then settled for a one-year pillow deal with the Giants, earning $6MM in 2021. He posted a 3.17 ERA that year over 167 2/3 innings and parlayed that into a three-year, $36MM deal to return to San Francisco.

That second deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well for the Giants, however. DeSclafani only made five starts in 2022 as he dealt with ankle issues that eventually required surgery. In 2023, he threw just under 100 innings, missing time due to right shoulder fatigue and a right elbow flexor strain, posting a 4.88 ERA in the process.

In Dipoto’s statement quoted above, he explicitly mentioned that DeSclafani can pitch out of the rotation or the bullpen. 169 out of his 180 major league games have been starts but it seems as though the Mariners won’t be guaranteeing him a rotation spot. As mentioned, they have Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert in the front three spots. Miller, Woo and Hancock all had encouraging results in 2023 but they’ve yet to pitch a full season in the big leagues. Perhaps DeSclafani’s role will be determined by his health and performance, as well as how those youngsters look. If they surpass him on the depth chart, he could be moved to the bullpen, and injuries could always open up opportunities as the season goes along. It also can’t be ruled out that the Mariners have yet another trade in the works between now and the start of the season, giving the way they typically operate.

Turning to the financials, it will be close to cash neutral in 2024 but there are many ways that it could play out down the road. Ray and Haniger each have $1MM assignment bonuses for being traded, so that’s a wash. Ray is going to make $23MM this year and is set to make $25MM in the next two campaigns, but he can opt out after the 2024 season, meaning he’ll have to decide whether or not to leave two years and $50MM on the table. If he’s healthy and effective this year, it’s easy to see him opting out and beating that on the open market, at least in terms of total guarantee. But if things don’t go smoothly in the months to come, perhaps he would take the security of the proverbial bird in the hand.

Haniger will have a $17MM salary this year and $15.5MM next year, though he can also opt out after the 2024 campaign. Another injury-marred season like he had in 2023 would likely lead to him staying put, but another bounceback from him would obviously change the calculus. DeSclafani is set to make $12MM this year, the final season of his deal. With $29MM owed to Haniger/DeSclafani this year and $23MM owed to Ray, the approximately $6MM coming from the Giants will cover the difference. But into the future, it will depend on the opt-out decisions.

The Mariners have had some payroll concerns due to their uncertain broadcast situation and had a decent chunk of their budget tied up in Ray, who wasn’t going to be able to help at all in the first half of the season. They are giving away the upside of his late-season return for a lineup upgrade and a pitcher who can hopefully be a more immediate factor for them. For the Giants, they took two players who were getting squeezed for playing time and turned them into an upside play on a potentially-elite lefty who could be a significant wild card down the stretch.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the three players involved in the swap. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that cash would be involved.

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