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Robbie Ray

D’Backs Notes: Ray, Lamb, Ahmed

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The latest from Arizona…

  • Robbie Ray threw a bullpen session on Tuesday and is on track to be activated off the injured list when first eligible on Sunday.  (Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was among those to report the news.)  A lower back spasm sent Ray to the IL on August 15, and while the southpaw’s back has been something of a recurring issue lately, Ray feels the 10-day minimum absence was a long enough break to correct the problem.  Ray is scheduled to start the Diamondbacks’ game against the Brewers on Sunday, and he’ll be a welcome addition to an Arizona team that is battling to stay in the wild card race.
  • It has been a trying couple of years for Jake Lamb, who played only 56 games in 2018 due to shoulder surgery, and has been limited to just 50 games this season after a quad strain kept him on the IL for almost the entire first half.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, Lamb has yet to get into a rhythm, hitting .211/.346/.391 with five homers over 156 PA.  Despite these struggles, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) that he expects Lamb to get on track, and reacted with surprise when asked if Lamb could potentially be a non-tender candidate.  “Wow, I wouldn’t anticipate that being a consideration for him,” Hazen said.  Lamb is making $4.825MM this season, so a projected raise won’t be too large for Lamb’s final year of arbitration eligibility.  There’s not much financial risk for the D’Backs in retaining Lamb to see if he can regain the form that saw him hit 59 homers in 2016-17, and make the NL’s All-Star roster in 2017.
  • Nick Ahmed is slated to hit free agency after the 2020 season, though Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic suggests that the shortstop is the team’s best extension candidate, and that the D’Backs should look to keep Ahmed in the fold.  Long regarded as one of baseball’s best defenders, Ahmed has taken a significant step forward at the plate this season, hitting .271/.333/.465 with 17 homers over 497 plate appearances.  While this only grades out as roughly league-average production (101 wRC+, 103 OPS+), Ahmed had only a .229/.279/.368 slash line in 1584 PA prior to 2019, with a 67 wRC+ and 69 OPS+.  Given that Ahmed’s offensive numbers are still modest, it could pave the way for an extension at a reasonable price for the team, and Ahmed might prefer some contractual security rather than test the market heading into his age-31 season.  Ahmed is earning $3,662,500 this season and is set for a healthy raise on that figure in his final trip through the arbitration process this offseason.

Diamondbacks Place Robbie Ray On 10-Day Injured List

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5:58PM: Ray’s MRI didn’t indicate any serious damage, the southpaw told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).

3:14PM: The Diamondbacks have placed left-hander Robbie Ray on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back spasm, the team announced.  Right-handers Jon Duplantier and Stefan Crichton have been called up from Triple-A to take the roster spots of Ray and Tim Locastro, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday.

Back spasms forced Ray out of last night’s start after just two innings, and the southpaw was scheduled to undergo an MRI today.  Obviously the D’Backs were concerned enough to send Ray to the IL, though Ray could end up missing a minimal amount of time, depending on the severity of the spasms.  Needless to say, Arizona would love to have Ray healthy and contributing again as soon as possible, given how the D’Backs are fighting to stay in the postseason race (3.5 games out of an NL wild card position entering today’s play).

Since Zack Greinke was dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline, Ray has become the de facto ace of Arizona’s rotation, with his 3.99 ERA, 2.97 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 142 innings this season.  ERA predictors (4.09 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and a .311 xwOBA that almost exactly matches his .314 wOBA back up those solid-if-unspectacular numbers.  Ray himself received a lot of trade attention at the deadline, and it’s possible the D’Backs could again look at moving him this offseason, as 2020 is his final year of team control before free agency.

With Ray out, the Diamondbacks have Merrill Kelly, Mike Leake, Alex Young, and Zac Gallen remaining in the rotation.  Duplantier made three starts earlier this season and is the likeliest candidate to fill in while Ray is out, plus Taylor Clarke is at Triple-A and the club could also explore using an opener.  Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker are expected back from the IL at some point, though it isn’t certain if they’ll make it back to the active roster (or be used as starters) before Ray is able to return.

Injury Notes: Astros, Ray, Nimmo, Voit

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The hamstring injury that prompted the Astros to scratch Gerrit Cole from yesterday’s start isn’t immediately believed to be serious, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (Twitter link, with video, via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). That doesn’t necessarily preclude a trip to the injured list, but Hinch explained that Cole “doesn’t think it’s that serious.” He’ll nonetheless be tested further to ensure there’s no risk of a more substantial injury. Scratching Cole had a trickle-down effect on the pitching staff, though, as it forced Houston into a bullpen game in the second half of a Tuesday doubleheader against the White Sox. As such, deadline acquisition Joe Biagini was optioned to Triple-A in order to get a fresh arm, Cy Sneed, into the bullpen. Biagini’s trip to the minors seems likely to be brief and won’t impact his arbitration or free-agent timeline.

More on a few other noteworthy injury situations…

  • Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray exited his start in Colorado on Wednesday after two innings because of back spasms. Afterward, manager Torey Lovullo told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and other reporters he hopes Ray won’t “need to miss much time” (subscription link). The club should have a better idea of Ray’s status after he undergoes an MRI on Thursday. With Arizona already looking like a playoff long shot (it’s 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot), it can ill afford to lose Ray for any decent chunk of time. The 27-year-old is the No. 1 starter left in a rotation that has gone through significant changes this season. Ray was a trade candidate at last month’s deadline, but he stayed put while the team instead moved ace Zack Greinke, bringing in Mike Leake and Zac Gallen to help cover for his exit. Back in May, long before the deadline, the Diamondbacks saw emergent righty Luke Weaver hit the IL with arm troubles. Weaver still hasn’t come back. There is optimism Weaver will return this season, but he’ll likely finish the year as a reliever if he does.
  • Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is within a week or ten days of launching a rehab stint, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). Of course, the most recent prior report had indicated Nimmo might already have been prepared for minor-league game action, and that obviously did not come to pass. The 26-year-old is dealing with a bulging disc in his back. While the club has thrived of late, a healthy Nimmo would be a notable roster upgrade. Injuries have been mounting for the Mets, who’ve now lost Robinson Cano and Jeff McNeil to the IL in the past couple weeks. McNeil, who was placed on the IL today due to a mild hamstring strain, may yet beat Nimmo back from the injured list, though.
  • Yankees first baseman Luke Voit could begin his own rehab assignment “next week,” he said Wednesday (via George A. King III of the New York Post). That’s encouraging news for a player who has dealt with core issues since June 29 and looked like a serious candidate for season-ending sports hernia surgery not long ago.

Details On The Twins’ Trade Deadline Talks

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Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo represented the sum total of the Twins’ midseason additions as the club tries to hold its lead atop the AL Central.  While Dyson and Romo address needs in the bullpen, Minnesota was also very aggressive in looking for starting pitching, though ultimately came up short in reinforcing the rotation.

Rival teams continually asked the Twins about top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, with the Mets among the multiple clubs who asking for both youngsters.  New York wanted both Lewis and Kiriloff in discussions about Noah Syndergaard, and if premium minor league talent wasn’t available for the ace, the Mets were also focused on adding Major League players, to the point of asking Minnesota about Byron Buxton in a possible Syndergaard deal.

Lewis and Kirilloff were also on the mind of the Blue Jays’ front office, as Toronto was looking for either of the prospects in exchange for Marcus Stroman.  Minnesota turned down this initial request, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Jays never called back with any other offers before trading Stroman to the Mets.  This would seem to indicate that the Jays were only interested in Lewis and Kirilloff specifically, though Hayes writes that “the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone.”

Beyond the prospects, Hayes tweeted that Luis Arraez was “everyone’s favorite ask” amongst teams who were offering rental players to Minnesota.  Arraez has been a revelation for the Twins over his first 43 Major League games, as the rookie is hitting .349/.422/.445 over 166 plate appearances.  Arraez has long boasted strong averages and on-base numbers in the minors, and while regression is inevitable, his .361 xwOBA isn’t far off his .388 wOBA.  With this much potential, it isn’t hard to see why the Twins were reluctant to part with a 22-year-old, multi-positional talent for only a rental player (or potentially anyone).

Hayes reports that the Twins were considering both Robbie Ray and Mike Minor, though concerns about Ray’s durability and Minor’s July struggles diminished the interest.  On the relief front, the Twins also had interest in Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.

“It was one of the most unique trade deadlines I’ve ever experienced,” Twins GM Thad Levine told Hayes and other reporters.  “One error I made was assuming that early in the trade cycle that the leverage was towards the seller.  I assumed that there was going to be a little bit of a shift of that see-saw back to the buyer as we got closer to the deadline. I’m not sure we ever saw the shift in the see-saw. The sellers felt pretty emboldened. They set the prices high, which is very normal in a trade deadline. But I’m not sure they moved off of those high asks at any point, and as a result, there were just a finite number of players that meaningfully changed the fortunes of playoff-contending teams.”

Early talks with the Giants involving multiple players (including Dyson, Madison Bumgarner, and Will Smith) did result in the late Dyson trade.  Minnesota and San Francisco re-engaged in talks just 45 minutes before the 3pm CT deadline, medicals on the four players in the deal were exchanged at 2:50pm, and the trade was finalized with just five minutes to spare.

Mozeliak On Cards’ Quiet Deadline

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Even as their NL Central rivals landed improvements in the midst of a tight race, the Cardinals came away empty at yesterday’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke down the fruitless negotiating effort and the ensuing comments of Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.

The Cards “explored starting pitching first and foremost,” said Mozeliak, with an eye to improving an underwhelming rotation. Presumably, they continued to engage on lefty relievers. There’s no indication whether the team contemplated position-player improvements, though there was certainly an argument to be made for some exploration on that front. The Cards are loaded with options, but the production at second and third base has been sporadic and center field has been a bit of a black hole this season.

While the St. Louis front office is no doubt keenly interested in breaking a four-year string of seasons that ended without postseason appearances, it wasn’t willing to bet the farm on 2019. Per Goold, the club wasn’t willing to give up outfielders Tyler O’Neill or Harrison Bader to rent Zack Wheeler down the stretch, as the Mets demanded. Neither were the Cards amenable to parting with top prospects Dylan Carlson and/or Nolan Gorman in order to pry loose a quality hurler with 2020 contract control, such as Robbie Ray or Mike Minor.

Given those stances, perhaps it’s less than surprising that nothing got done. Gorman and Carlson were obvious targets for other teams to pursue when the Cards came calling on good starters. The club’s other best prospect, catcher Andrew Knizner, is on the MLB roster at present and likely was also off limits. While we had seen indication that the Cardinals were dangling some young outfielders, including O’Neill and the just-promoted Lane Thomas, it seems that those pieces were not available under all circumstances.

Ultimately, the Cardinals did swing two deals with the Dodgers, adding recently designated reliever Zac Rosscup and sending out unwanted infielder Jedd Gyorko. They also claimed southpaw Adalberto Mejia in advance of the deadline. It’s tough to say that any of those acquisitions moved the needle, especially in comparison to the acquisitions of the rival Cubs (Craig Kimbrel, Nicholas Castellanos, David Phelps, Tony Kemp), Brewers (Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black, Jake Faria, Jordan Lyles), and even Reds (Trevor Bauer).

There certainly seemed to be room to improve. There’s an argument to be made that the Cards ought to have been more willing, in particular, to part with some of its young outfielders to make something happen. Then again, the winter St. Louis blockbuster has served to highlight some of the pitfalls in such moves. There will be a need for some of those players next season as well, with others perhaps still representing future trade fodder. And it’s hard to second-guess a team’s internal valuations on players it knows better than anyone might hope to from the outside.

As Mozeliak summed things up: “When you spend seven straight days in a room working on something, you tend to want to see something come out of it. So, there’s a high level of frustration, even for us. But we answer to people and have to be responsible for decisions that come out of it and we just didn’t feel we could get there.”

Details On Yankees’ Pursuit Of Robbie Ray

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7:35PM: The Yankees were willing to give up Clint Frazier and another prospect for Ray, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, though talks fizzled out after the Diamondbacks requested more prospects.  As per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, the D’Backs wanted a four-prospect package that included Frazier and right-hander Clarke Schmidt, who was the 16th overall pick of the 2017 draft and rated by MLB Pipeline as the fifth-best prospect in New York’s system.

1:16PM: The Yankees’ talks with the Diamondbacks regarding left-hander Robbie Ray are “dead” for now, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Ray’s name has become increasingly prevalent on the rumor mill in the past week, though there’s no firm indication that the club is sure to move him. Ray is controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration.

New York’s rotation hasn’t performed up to expectations in 2019, as Luis Severino hasn’t thrown a pitch. Lefties James Paxton and, in particular, J.A. Happ have struggled to uncharacteristically high ERAs, as has CC Sabathia, who is currently on the injured list. The Yankees have been connected to virtually every starting pitcher on the trade market, but to this point those negotiations have obviously yet to bear fruit.

Ray, 27, has a 3.91 ERA with 12.1 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.60 HR/9 and a 38.4 percent grounder rate in 2019. He averaged 12+ K/9 in both 2017 and 2018 with sub-4.00 ERAs, FIPs and xFIPs, cementing himself as one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers along the way. He’s earning $6.05MM this season and will command one more arbitration raise this winter, possibly to the $10MM range, before becoming a free agent upon the conclusion of the 2020 season.

The Diamondbacks, with a .500 record, aren’t necessarily embarking on a full-scale tear down but are nevertheless listening with an open mind on some of their more desirable short-term assets.

Yankees, Astros Pursuing Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler

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The Yankees and Astros, two American League superpowers, continue their pursuit of high-profile starting pitchers. Both teams are in on Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets righty Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Astros are also “focused” on Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Ray has been on the Yankees’ radar of late, too.

The Astros and Yankees are among the teams on Bumgarner’s limited no-trade list, but that doesn’t mean the pending free agent would block a deal to either club. Of course, it’s not a sure thing the playoff-contending Giants will even move Bumgarner, a franchise icon, by today’s deadline. They’ve been telling teams that they plan to keep him and closer Will Smith, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

This is the second time this week the Astros have been prominently connected to Bumgarner and Wheeler. As is the case with Bumgarner, Wheeler’s a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent. While Wheeler may be the top trade candidate in baseball, the Mets aren’t guaranteed to part with him. They’ve made something of a charge up the standings of late, and seem prepared to retain Wheeler if they don’t get the type of return they’re seeking for the flamethrower. And whether the Mets would even trade Wheeler to the hated Yankees is also in question.

Pitching Chatter: Vazquez, Diaz, Ray, Colome, Greene

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As the Dodgers continue to try to pry closer Felipe Vazquez loose from the Pirates, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link) that the sides are at a bit of an impasse. It seems the Bucs would (quite understandably) like to receive soaring L.A. prospect Gavin Lux, a versatile infielder who has completely obliterated Triple-A pitching (.474/.553/.918 in 114 plate appearances with eight home runs and a 17:17 K/BB ratio) since a mid-season promotion. The clubs may well be engaged in a bit of a staring contest as the deadline draws near.

More news and rumors from the pitching market …

  • The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.
  • Rival organizations “fully expect” the Diamondbacks to deal southpaw Robbie Ray, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Arizona GM Mike Hazen continued to acknowledge his club’s tricky middle ground while avoiding a firm commitment to a particular course of action, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The top baseball ops man did acknowledge that there’s a possibility the team could pull off enough sell-side moves that it wouldn’t make sense to reload in the offseason. At the moment, the Brewers, Astros, and Yankees are among the teams with active talks or interest in Ray, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
  • With a real shot at a much-anticipated return to the top of the heap in the NL Central, the Cardinals could yet swing a big deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the St. Louis ballclub is interested in a controllable starter. Beyond that, the Cards’ precise plans remain a bit difficult to ascertain. The club is interested in lefty relief pitching, though that’s a trade deadline staple for many contenders. We haven’t seen the team connected prominently to any high-end hurlers, but a bold move seems tempting.
  • We’ve seen the Yankees connected to a wide variety of hurlers in recent weeks, with the club focused primarily on starters but also entertaining relief upgrades. They’ve recently chatted with the Tigers about old friend Shane Greene, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). Most contenders are no doubt at least checking in on Greene, who’s among the likeliest players in baseball to be traded in the coming days.
  • Similarly, the Phillies have cast an exceedingly broad net. Their relief situation remains problematic; now, there are indications that David Robertson’s rehab may drag into September, as Nightengale was among those to tweet. Another name to add to the list of Phils possibilities: Alex Colome of the White Sox. Morosi tweets that there’s “continued interest” on the part of the Philadelphia organization.

Mets Interested In Robbie Ray

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The Mets could trade Noah Syndergaard and-or Zack Wheeler by Wednesday’s trade deadline, but they might land at least one immediate rotation replacement in the coming days. Already connected to Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman, the club’s also “on” Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv.

Interest in Stroman and Ray jibes with the notion that the Mets, despite their dreadful 2019, are aiming to contend and not rebuild next season. Whether it would be an ill-advised plan for the prospect-needy Mets is up for debate, but it seems the goal would be to collect a haul for at least Syndergaard (there’s reportedly interest in extending Wheeler) and trade from their farm to acquire Stroman or Ray. Each of those two would bring back less in a deal than Syndergaard, who’s under control for one more year than they are, but they’d hardly come cheap.

There’s little doubt Ray would cost less to land than Stroman, who owns the superior track record. But there’s plenty of value with Ray, a proven mid-rotation starter who’s on an affordable $6.05MM salary now and controllable through arbitration next season. The playoff-contending Diamondbacks might not even give him up, but if they were to send Ray to the Mets, he’d join Jacob deGrom in giving the team two elite strikeout pitchers.

The 27-year-old Ray is obviously much less effective overall than deGrom, but Ray’s nonetheless on his way to a third straight season with a sky-high strikeout rate and a sub-4.00 ERA. Ray has logged a 3.95 ERA/4.27 FIP with 11.85 K/9 through 123 innings. He has, however, walked upward of four batters per nine for the second year in a row, posted a sub-40 percent groundball rate for the second straight campaign and kept up his years-long struggles with home runs.

Twins Have Inquired About Robbie Ray

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The Diamondbacks are reportedly gearing up to sell by Wednesday’s deadline, which could make left-hander Robbie Ray one of the game’s most popular trade candidates during the next few days. The Twins are among the teams that have inquired about Ray, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets.

On paper, the 27-year-old Ray would be a quality get for the Twins or any other team. He’s a capable starter who’s affordable right now ($6.05MM salary) and controllable via arbitration through next season. One of the majors’ premier strikeout artists dating back to 2016, Ray has fanned a prodigious 11.85 batters per nine this year across 123 innings. At the same time, though, he has issued 4.24 walks per nine, induced ground balls at a mere 38.4 percent clip and allowed home runs on  an unappealing 19.1 percent of fly balls. Ray’s control and homer problems have led to a 3.95 ERA/4.27 FIP, which is solid but not excellent.

In terms of bottom-line results, Ray’s not a massive upgrade over any of the Twins’ current complements to top starter Jose Berrios. Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez have posted similar numbers in the run prevention and-or fielding-independent pitching categories. With that said, a Ray acquisition could still make plenty sense for a Minnesota team facing a great deal of uncertainty in its starting staff after the season.

Aside from Berrios, nobody from the Twins’ rotation is a lock to return in 2020. Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda are pending free agents, while Perez has a $7MM club option (or a $500K buyout). As such, adding Ray could bolster the AL Central-leading Twins’ rotation now while taking care of an offseason need in one fell swoop.

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