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Latest On D-backs’ Offseason Plans

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With two of their best players, A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, set to hit free agency while other key players like Paul Goldschmidt and Robbie Ray inch closer to the open market, the D-backs will at least gauge trade interest in their roster early in the offseason before plotting a course, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

Around the league, there’s an expectation that the Snakes could oversee a full-throated rebuild, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests on Twitter. Within the organization, Hazen says the front office has already met with owner Ken Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall, calling Kendrick “open-minded” as the offseason gets underway.

“I think one of the takeaways for us was just to get a feel for what the trade market would be for various guys, evaluate the free-agent market as it comes out and see what happens, and reconvene,” adds Hazen.

There’s been plenty of speculation about a rebuild in Phoenix, where the D-backs stand to lose both Pollock and Corbin this winter and will see Goldschmidt reach free agency following the 2019 season. Ray, meanwhile, is set to hit the open market after the 2020 season, as is outfielder David Peralta. The Arizona farm system is not considered to be particularly strong, and the team’s long-term payroll is weighed down by Zack Greinke’s record contract and the albatross deal for Yasmany Tomas — two remnants from the previous front office regime around which Hazen & Co. will need to navigate.

The D-backs also have a whopping 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter, including several key players who are up for sizable raises — as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz earlier today. Peralta ($7.7MM), Ray ($6.1MM), Brad Boxberger ($4.9MM), Taijuan Walker ($4.825MM), Jake Lamb ($4.7MM), Steven Souza Jr. ($4MM), Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM), Archie Bradley ($2MM), Andrew Chafin ($1.8MM), T.J. McFarland ($1.4MM) and Matt Andriese ($1.1MM) all figure to be tendered contracts.

Add in Goldschmidt’s no-brainer club option and guaranteed salaries for Greinke, Tomas, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson and Ketel Marte, and the tab reaches $119.125MM — a hefty sum for a D-backs club that has only twice opened the season with more than $100MM in guaranteed contracts on the books. Even rounding out the roster with league-minimum players would push the Diamondbacks within a few million dollars of the franchise-record $131.5MM payroll they carried on Opening Day 2018. And if the team decides to tender contracts to any of Shelby Miller ($4.9MM projection), Chris Owings ($3.6MM) or John Ryan Murphy ($1.1MM), that financial outlook would only be further muddied.

With little help on the way from the farm, two of their best players hitting free agency, the face of a franchise a year from the open market, a near-record payroll and a miserable finish to the season, it’s not hard to see why the D-backs are at least considering a look to the future. A full tear-down wouldn’t even be necessary, as they could gauge interest in flipping some stars who are controlled for a relatively short period of time in exchange for some more controllable assets that could help at the MLB level either immediately or in the near future.

Goldschmidt would be the biggest piece they could put on the market, as the perennial MVP candidate rebounded from an awful start to post a characteristically brilliant .290/.389/.533 slash with 33 homers in 690 plate appearances. But Ray would also be one of the most in-demand assets on the offseason market for starting pitching, with few quality arms expected to be available in trades. The 27-year-old missed time with an oblique strain in 2018 and a concussion in 2017, but he’s averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons and a 3.34 ERA in his past 285 1/3 innings in that time. Peralta is only two years from free agency himself and posted a .293/.352/.516 line with a career-high 30 homers.

Certainly, there are avenues to additional payroll capacity down the line. The team inked a television deal reportedly worth more than $1.5 billion in Feb. 2015, but they’re only in year three of a contract that was said to be as long as two decades in length and included gradual increases in year-over-year television revenue. The Diamondbacks are also in the process of seeking alternatives to Chase Field, but a new stadium wouldn’t be a possibility until at least the 2022 season.

Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West

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With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.

We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:

  1. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history.  He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance.  Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers.  Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw.  Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark.  The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year.  Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed.  The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward.  A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
  3. Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs.  But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews.  Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats.  With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
  4. Brandon Belt, Giants:  No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’  Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position.  His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
  5. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame.  With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.

Pitcher Notes: Stroman, Syndergaard, Ray, Cobb

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Somewhat overlooked in last night’s rain-shortened 7-5 loss to the Yankees was the fact that Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman experienced a resurfacing of his blister issues. Though Stroman himself didn’t speak to reporters after the game, manager John Gibbons told reporters that Stroman’s blister tore in the seventh inning of a recent dominant start against the Red Sox (h/t Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca). Gibbons also admitted that the club is considering a DL stint in order to get Stroman right again after he took 88 pitches to get through four innings last night (while giving up five earned runs).

More notes on a few pitchers around the league…

  • Packed deep in a piece by Laura Albanese of Newsday are a few notable quotes by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard that shed some (admittedly vague) light on his struggles and seeming fall from “ace” status. Not only is Thor upset about his inability to hold baserunners (the Phillies swiped five bags off him and batterymate Kevin Plawecki last night), but he also hinted at some wider mechanical issues he’s trying to work through. “It’s something I battle every day when I go out there,” said Syndergaard. “I’m just trying to correct a lot of things that I’ve been doing wrong for a long time.”
  • Elsewhere in the National League, Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray still hasn’t been able to get back on track, as Nick Piecoro details in a piece for the Arizona Republic. After a breakout 2017 campaign, Ray’s been unable to deliver any semblance of a repeat performance this season after starting the year with diminished velocity and succumbing to an oblique injury. After walking five batters last night, Ray had the following to say about his command issues. “I just need to get back to what I do best and that’s pound the zone. I’ve got too good of stuff to be pitching around the zone. I’ve just got to attack guys and then my off-speed stuff gets better.” Interestingly, Ray felt confident while warming up yesterday and felt in complete command of his pitches. He wonders whether a “lack of focus” could be to blame.
  • Though the early returns of the Alex Cobb signing didn’t look good for the Orioles, the return to effectiveness of his change-up seems to have vaulted the right-hander back to his previous form, as Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun details in this piece. He notes that Cobb’s given up just nine hits on 184 change-ups since the All-Star break. His confidence in the pitch has led to him almost doubling its usage lately, and the results have spoken for themselves. Cobb’s strung together four consecutive quality starts of late, posting a 2.08 ERA with a 54.9% ground ball rate during that span.

Diamondbacks To Activate Robbie Ray; Latest On Pollock, Souza

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The Diamondbacks have seen some positive developments in a variety of health situations. After activating Shelby Miller earlier today, the club decided it’ll also activate fellow starter Robbie Ray on Wednesday, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).

Ray, who is coming off of an outstanding 2017 season, hit the shelf with an oblique strain after six outings this year. He was due to make at least one more rehab start before returning, but evidently feels good enough to jump into the MLB rotation. As Buchanan notes, Ray’s pitch count will likely be limited a bit for at least his first start back.

There’s good news in the outfield, too. Steven Souza Jr. is set to begin a rehab assignment, though he’ll initially work only as a designated hitter as he is still building up his throwing ability. Souza’s pectoral injury has limited him to just 14 games this season, his first with Arizona.

Even more importantly, perhaps, center fielder A.J. Pollock has finally resumed baseball activities. Pollock has been sidelined since mid-May with a broken thumb, which has healed a bit more slowly than the team surely preferred. If he can avoid any setbacks, though, perhaps it won’t be too long before Pollock is able to provide a major boost to the Snakes’ lineup.

Despite these significant injuries, the Snakes have managed to keep winning games. After a lull, the club has bounced back and kept its edge in the NL West. The D-Backs will surely need all hands on deck to hold off the Dodgers and other division contenders over the second half of the season.

Shelby Miller Set For Rehab Assignment; Latest On Ray, Pollock

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Diamondbacks right Shelby Miller is set to embark upon a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow night, as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert writes. That’s encouraging news for both player and team, as it suggests he’s now not all that far from returning to a MLB mound.

Miller, who’s about 13 months removed from Tommy John surgery, will be looking to reestablish himself in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility. It’s not yet known exactly how many starts he will make in the minors. Presumably, that’ll be determined in no small part by how his elbow responds. The rules allow up to thirty days for a pitcher’s rehab assignment.

Last we saw him in the majors, Miller was giving reason to believe he could put his miserable 2016 season in the rearview mirror. He turned in three strong starts to open the ensuing campaign — including a fastball velocity boost (to 95.5 mph) and swinging-strike rebound (9.6%) — only to see the elbow problem arise and cut his season short.

The Arizona organization will hope that Miller can regain that momentum on the other side of his TJ rehab. There’s clearly some interesting upside; in 2015, Miller threw 205 1/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball. Whether he has that kind of effort left in his 27-year-old right arm remains to be seen. Miller says he has “felt really good physically” but believes “there’s some room to work on some command stuff” as he prepares for his return to competitive action.

It’s notable, too, that lefty Robbie Ray has a notable date tomorrow. He’s due to have his injured oblique examined for progress. It’s even possible that he will throw a pen session if the imaging looks good. While we’ll obviously need to wait to see how the medical evaluation goes, it seems generally promising that these steps are even under contemplation at this point. Ray hit the DL about a month ago with what seemed to be a rather significant muscle injury.

The D-Backs undoubtedly miss Miller and Ray, particularly with the team presently enduring an extended slide. Every piece of talent helps, after all, even though run-prevention has been a notable strength to this point of the season. But the lagging offense is the real problem, and that’s an ongoing concern that won’t be addressed by the eventual return of those hurlers.

The player the Snakes miss most, surely, is center fielder A.J. Pollock. He’ll also be looked at tomorrow to see how his fractured thumb is healing. When that injury was announced, there was a fair bit of uncertainty in Pollock’s timeline, so the results will be of no little interest for a club that badly misses its most productive hitter through the first six weeks of the season. Pollock, too, is surely anxious to get back in action after missing so much time in recent seasons. Once he’s back, he’ll be looking to shore up his free-agent stock, which had been on the rise before he hit the DL.

West Notes: Pence, Ohtani, D-backs, Hill, A’s

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It’s possible Giants outfielder Hunter Pence has played his last game with the team, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California observes. The Giants have to make a decision on Pence’s future within the next six days, when his minor league rehab assignment will end. In the event San Francisco releases Pence, who helped the club to two World Series titles as a younger player, it’ll have to eat the remainder of his $18.5MM salary. But if Pence gets another shot with the Giants, he’ll return having undergone some offensive adjustments with the help of private instructor Doug Latta – whose students also include Mac Williamson and the Dodgers’ Justin Turner – Pavlocic details. Pence feels “way better” after working with Latta, and has hit well in the minors since making the changes. The respected veteran got off to a rough start in the majors this year (.172/.197/.190 in 61 plate appearances) before going on the disabled list April 19 with a thumb issue.

More from the game’s West divisions…

  • The Angels expect Shohei Ohtani to make his next start during their upcoming series against the Tigers, which runs from Monday to Thursday, manager Mike Scioscia said Saturday (via Jeff Miller of the Los Angeles Times). Ohtani had been scheduled to start Sunday against the Yankees, but the Angels elected against that as a way to manage the phenom’s workload. The pitcher/hitter hasn’t taken the mound since last Sunday, when he cruised past the Rays to record his fifth quality start in seven attempts, but has been in the Angels’ starting lineup five times this week.
  • The free-falling Diamondbacks may welcome both lefty Robbie Ray and righty Shelby Miller back in mid-June, general manager Mike Hazen told reporters, including Kathleen Fitzgerald of AZCentral and Nick Piecoro of AZCentral. After getting off to a 24-11 start, the Diamondbacks have lost 14 of 16, perhaps thanks in part to the absences of Ray (strained oblique) and Taijuan Walker (Tommy John surgery) since late April. The D-backs’ banged-up rotation is hardly the primary reason for their slide (the club’s offense has only averaged two runs per game during its slump), but the returns of Ray and Miller should be welcome nonetheless. Along with Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin and Zack Godley, Ray and Miller would help form a nice rotation on paper. Miller has been working back since he underwent a Tommy John procedure last May.
  • There was optimism about injured Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill earlier this week, but manager Dave Roberts suggested to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters Saturday that his return’s not exactly imminent. Hill’s still “a ways away” from returning from his long-running blister issues, per Roberts. The 38-year-old went back on the DL last Sunday, when Roberts estimated he’d miss at least four weeks. Fortunately for the surging Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw seems to be nearing a return from his own DL stint, and Hill replacement Ross Stripling has been brilliant this season. In a win over the Padres on Friday, Stripling struck out 10 and didn’t issue any walks across 6 2/3 innings of six-hit, one-run ball (unearned).
  • The Athletics made a series of moves Saturday, sending Santiago Casilla to the DL with a strained shoulder, optioning Josh Lucas to the minors and recalling Carlos Ramirez and Chris Bassitt. The most notable member of the group is Casilla, who ranks third among A’s relievers in innings pitched this year (21 2/3). Casilla opened his age-37 season with an appealing 3.32 ERA over that span, though he also totaled too few strikeouts and too many walks (14 in each case) and benefited from a .186 batting average on balls in play.

D-Backs Place Robbie Ray On 10-Day DL With Strained Oblique

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TODAY: Ray has officially been placed on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. Reliever Silvino Bracho has been called up to replace him on the active roster.

The diagnosis is a grade two strain for Ray, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic was among those to tweet. There’s still quite a lot of potential variability in the amount of time Ray could miss, but that portends a fairly lengthy stint on ice. Southpaw starter Tyler Skaggs, for instance, suffered a similar injury almost exactly one year ago, and did not return until early August of 2017.

YESTERDAY: Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray departed his start against the Nationals on Sunday with a strained right oblique, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was among those to report. Ray exited after 1 1/3 innings and 21 pitches.

Given what we know about oblique strains, it seems like a strong bet that Ray will head to the disabled list in short order. It’s unclear how much time he’ll miss, though this injury often sidelines players for several weeks. As Zach Buchanan of The Athletic notes, Diamondbacks reliever Randall Delgado has been out since the beginning of spring training with an oblique strain.

An extended absence for Ray would leave the D-backs without two members of their season-opening rotation, as righty Taijuan Walker recently succumbed to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. While Ray’s injury isn’t nearly that catastrophic, it may nonetheless deprive the D-backs of one of the game’s premier strikeout artists for a while. The 26-year-old has averaged a ridiculous 14.64 strikeouts per nine across 26 1/3 innings this season, though he has somewhat offset that with an untenable walk rate (5.53 BB/9). Ray has also induced grounders at only a 32.2 percent clip, which has helped lead to a high home run-to-fly ball rate (19.2 percent) and a bloated ERA (4.88). He managed a stingy 2.89 ERA over 162 innings last year, when his walk, grounder and homer numbers were significantly better.

Even though Ray’s run prevention hasn’t been in top form yet, the D-backs still managed to win four of his five starts prior to Sunday. After unexpectedly clinching a playoff spot last year, Arizona has raced to a 19-7 mark and a five-game lead in the NL West early in 2018. But the Diamondbacks’ starting depth, which was a question mark entering the season, is being put to the test.

Should Ray miss time, the D-backs could turn to either Braden Shipley or Troy Scribner –  two Triple-A hurlers on their 40-man roster –  to join Zack Greinke, Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin and Matt Koch in their rotation. The club doesn’t have any other healthy depth starters on its 40-man, though veteran Kris Medlen is on hand at Triple-A. Medlen hasn’t been effective this year, however, with a 6.00 ERA/5.91 FIP in 18 innings (four starts).

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

West Notes: Kershaw, Ray, Rangers, Padres

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Clayton Kershaw threw a simulated game today as he continues to work toward a return from his back injury, and Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets that the Dodgers’ ace is now scheduled for a minor league rehab start this coming Saturday. McCullough cites Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt in reporting that Kershaw is slated to throw four innings and 60 pitches in what will be his first live game action since landing on the disabled list last month. It’s encouraging news for the Dodgers, as that timetable should line Kershaw up for a return in early or mid-September, giving him at least two to three weeks before the postseason begins.

More from the game’s western divisions….

  • Left-hander Robbie Ray will return to the Diamondbacks’ rotation on Thursday of this week, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The 25-year-old breakout lefty was in the midst of an outstanding season when he was struck in the head by a line drive off the bat of Cardinals first baseman Luke Voit on July 28. Ray exited the game and went on the concussion DL, where he’ll ultimately have spent just under a month if he is activated as planned on Thursday. Ray made a rehab start with Class-A Advanced Visalia over the weekend and struck out 11 of the 21 batters he faced, which had to be encouraging for the D-backs. Through 118 2/3 MLB innings, Ray has a 3.11 ERA with 11.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a 38.9 percent ground-ball rate.
  • MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tackles a number of Rangers-related topics in his latest Rangers Inbox piece, ranging from the possibility of re-signing Carlos Gomez to the PTBNL in the Jonathan Lucroy trade with the Rockies and Jurickson Profar’s future in Texas. Of Gomez, Sullivan notes that before committing to another contract with Gomez, the Rangers first need to definitively determine a position for Joey Gallo. Sullivan also opines that the Rangers should commit left field to the fleet-footed Delino DeShields, though that would leave the team needing to effectively choose between Gomez and Drew Robinson. Per Sullivan, the Rangers view the 25-year-old Robinson “as a frontline talent,” though they’ve also been reluctant to hand starting roles to players without a veteran safety net. Robinson hit .268/.369/.494 with 11 homers and seven steals in Triple-A this year, but he’s batted .209/.382/.442 in 55 big league PAs. Robinson has never cracked Baseball America’s top 20 Rangers prospects and isn’t among Texas’ top 30 at MLB.com at present, though certainly that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have a quality MLB future ahead of him.
  • Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune has a mailbag column of his own up that Padres fans will want to check out. Within, Lin notes that Hunter Renfroe’s recent demotion wasn’t about service time — the optional assignment is highly unlikely to impact his path to arbitration or free agency — but rather about sending a message to improve his plate discipline. Manager Andy Green spoke recently about how a similar option to the minors did wonders for Cory Spangenberg, and the organization’s hope is that Renfroe will benefit similarly. Lin also touches on Jose Pirela’s long-term fit with the team, various speculative offseason trade scenarios and the Padres’ shortstop needs. Notably, he opines that the team’s 2018 Opening Day shortstop is not currently in the organization.

Diamondbacks Expect Increased Trade Interest In Young Arms

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Following their acquisition of Taijuan Walker from the Mariners last week, the Diamondbacks are expecting to receive increased interest in their stable of controllable starters, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). As Rosenthal points out, each of Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley is between the ages of 24 and 26 and comes with at least three remaining years of clubs control. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, is just 27 and has two years of control remaining.

[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart]

The D-backs figure to enter the 2017 season with a rotation consisting of Zack Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Walker and Miller, and it indeed seems not just conceivable but likely that their supply of intriguing young arms would draw interest from rival teams in an offseason where any type of quality starting pitching is in short supply.

Miller, who turned 26 in October, is perhaps the most obvious change-of-scenery candidate following a disastrous first season in Arizona that resulted in a 6.15 ERA across 101 Major League innings. After being acquired in the much-maligned trade that sent Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to the Braves last winter, Miller pitched poorly enough in 2016 to merit a demotion to the minors. The small silver lining for the D-backs (and for interested teams) is that the demotion delayed Miller’s free agency by a year, so any team picking him up could still control him through arbitration for three more years. Miller is just a season removed from a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2015 innings (with the Braves), but ownership has already reportedly intervened on one potential trade and may not want to green-light an offseason deal just a year after surrendering so much to acquire him.

Ray, 25, is the most appealing trade candidate of the bunch from my vantage point but could also be the most difficult to surrender. Though he’s already been traded twice in his career and is coming off a lackluster 4.90 ERA in 174 1/3 innings with Arizona this past season, he made several intriguing gains in 2016. Ray’s average fastball velocity trended up to 94.1 mph last year, and he posted a career-best 45.7 percent ground-ball rate. Most impressively, he averaged a hefty 11.3 K/9 that rated second in the Majors among qualified starters. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg Ray for a mid-3.00s ERA, and he had some poor fortune in terms of balls in play (.352 BABIP) and home-run rate (15.5 HR/FB). Certainly, he needs some work — his control, for instance, could stand to improve — but the makings of a very good young starter are present.

Corbin once looked like a budding front-line starter for the Snakes but underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2014 season. He showed promise with a 3.60 ERA in 85 innings upon his return in 2015, but the 2016 campaign was a dismal one. Though he totaled 155 2/3 innings, Corbin recorded just a 5.15 ERA as his strikeout, walk and home run rates all trended in the wrong direction, as did his velocity. If there’s a silver lining on his season, it’s that he not only stayed healthy but also posted a career-best 53.8 percent ground-ball rate.

Bradley and Shipley, as it stands, could be on the outside looking in when it comes to the rotation picture. Each is a 24-year-old former first-round pick (Bradley seventh overall in 2011, Shipley 15th in 2013) that has a bit of MLB experience but has yet to cement himself as a viable rotation option. Bradley struck out more than a batter per inning in 2016 (143 in 141 2/3 frames) but, like Ray, struggled with his control (4.1 BB/9). Like many other D-backs starters, Bradley’s BABIP (.338) was well above the league norm due at least in part to the team’s porous defense. With five years of team control remaining, though, Bradley should pique the interest of any team looking to add long-term rotation help despite the 5.18 ERA he carries through 177 1/3 big league innings.

Shipley, meanwhile, comes with the greatest amount of club control of any of the listed starters. He didn’t reach a full year of service in 2016, so he’d be controllable through at least the 2022 campaign. Shipley posted a 5.27 ERA across 70 innings last year, but his lack of missed bats proved problematic. That’s been a continuing problem for Shipley throughout his pro career, as his K/9 has been moving in the wrong direction as he’s ascended through the minors. Shipley logged a 3.70 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 46.6 percent grounder rate in a ridiculously hitter-friendly environment with Arizona’s Reno affiliate in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, but he punched out just 5.5 hitters per nine in the Majors against 3.6 BB/9. He wasn’t able to get batters to chase outside the zone at even a league-average rate, and when he did, hitters made contact at a rate that was significantly above the mean rate for the league. Certainly, there’s appeal to a former first-rounder/top 100 prospect that reached the Majors as a 24-year-old, but Shipley likely could use some additional minor league refinement.

Of course, the D-backs needn’t shop any of their young arms around aggressively. All of the pitchers listed here have minor league options remaining and could be sent down to open the 2017 season depending on how things play out in Spring Training. Possessing sufficient, even potentially excessive depth in the rotation is never a bad thing for a team (and the D-backs aren’t exactly at a point of excess given the uncertainties up and down their staff), as injuries are bound to arise over the course of a season. And with the exception of Greinke, the financial motivation to move any of the team’s starters is virtually nonexistent. That each of these pitchers represents somewhat of a buy-low commodity might make it difficult for new GM Mike Hazen and his staff to extract fair value, but the parade of 5.00-ish ERAs delivered by this group shouldn’t suppress interest all that much on the trade market.

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