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Joe Musgrove Suffers Fractured Toe

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10:14am: Padres manager Bob Melvin said Musgrove won’t be cleared to resume throwing for a “minimum” of two weeks (Twitter link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), though it’s possible he’s sidelined longer than that. Even if it’s a best-case scenario and Musgrove is throwing again in two weeks’ time, he’d have just 16 days to build up before Opening Day. The team hasn’t directly said as much, but Melvin’s timeline rather clearly puts Opening Day in jeopardy for Musgrove.

9:06am: Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove sustained a broken big toe in his left foot during a weight room accident yesterday, the team announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via Dennis Lin of The Athletic). The Padres have not yet revealed a timeline for Musgrove’s return.

The severity of the fracture and the recommended treatment aren’t yet clear, though it seems fair to presume that Musgrove will be sidelined for a meaningful period of time. Fractures of this nature can potentially require a walking boot, and even absent that, a broken big toe in a pitcher’s landing foot is problematic for obvious reasons.

It’s a dismal bit of injury luck for both pitcher and team, as the 30-year-old Musgrove is headed into the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension signed last July. He’s fresh off an All-Star season that saw him pitch to a sterling 2.93 ERA in 181 innings, fanning a strong 24.9% of hitters against a similarly impressive 5.7% walk rate along the way. Musgrove also ranked among the best in the league in terms of suppressing hard contact, landing in the 90th percentile of MLB pitchers with an 86.4 mph average exit velocity and in the 88th percentile with just a 32.4% hard-hit rate.

The typically durable Musgrove has made at least 30 starts and tallied at least 170 innings pitched in each of the past three 162-game seasons. Over the past four seasons, he’s only been placed on the injured twice — missing about three weeks in 2020 due to triceps inflammation in addition to about a week on the Covid-related injured list this past season.

Assuming Musgrove is indeed unavailable to begin the 2023 season, newly extended righty Yu Darvish would likely be in line for the Opening Day nod for San Diego. Darvish will be followed by lefty Blake Snell, recently signed right-hander Michael Wacha and relievers-turned-starters Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. The recent signing of Wacha now looks all the more critical for the Friars, who’d otherwise have been left with just two established big league starters in the wake of this Musgrove injury.

San Diego has been angling for a six-man rotation to begin he season, in part to help manage the workload of Martinez and Lugo, who pitched just 106 1/3 innings and 65 innings in 2022, respectively. If the plan is still to trot out a six-man unit, that could open the door for a younger arm like Adrian Morejon, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers, Reiss Knehr or Pedro Avila to get some starts early in the season. Alternatively, the Padres have notable veterans like Julio Teheran, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks in camp as non-roster invitees. Cole Hamels also inked a minor league pact as part of a comeback bid, but he’ll still be building up in extended spring training when the regular season opens.

Padres Sign Daniel Johnson To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed outfielder Daniel Johnson to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

Johnson, 27, was originally drafted by the Nationals but was traded to Cleveland in the 2018 deal that sent Yan Gomes to Washington. Johnson was able to get up to the majors with Cleveland, appearing in 35 games over the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He hit four home runs in that small sample but also struck out in 34% of his trips to the plate while walking in only 5.3% of them. His batting line in that time was .202/.245/.337 for a wRC+ of 52.

He was outrighted off the club’s roster after that 2021 season and was traded to the Mets in May of 2022. The latter club released him in July, which resulted in Johnson returning to the Nats on a minor league deal. All that bouncing around didn’t seem to suit him well, as he hit a combined .219/.268/.347 for the year. He was much better in Triple-A in 2021, hitting 14 home runs in 72 games and producing a .222/.314/.444 batting line.

Johnson will jump into San Diego’s outfield mix, which is in a temporary state of flux. Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected to man right field eventually but won’t be eligible to play in the regular season until he serves the 20 games remaining on his suspension. For the time being, the likely configuration will have Juan Soto in left and Trent Grisham in center, with right field potentially occupied by players like Matt Carpenter, Adam Engel, José Azocar or Brandon Dixon. Johnson will look to fight his way onto the roster alongside other non-roster invitees such as David Dahl and Preston Tucker.

Padres, Manny Machado Still Discussing Extension

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The Padres and Manny Machado remain in discussions regarding a potential long-term contract extension, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. There’s no indication an agreement is likely, through it comes as something of a surprise to hear conversations are still ongoing.

Machado implied last week he’d cut talks off when the sides hadn’t agreed to a deal by February 16, a self-imposed deadline representing the outset of Spring Training. At the time, the NL MVP runner-up said he “just wanted to focus on baseball” and “didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things” once exhibition play got underway.

The star third baseman wasn’t as firm when chatting with Lin about the situation today. “Deadlines are deadlines but they know where I stand,” Machado said. “The opportunity will arise if it comes to that. You know, nothing’s out of question. Obviously, they know how much San Diego means to me and what I want to be here. At the end of the day, they knew exactly where I was when that deadline was set. And we’ll see what happens. Our main focus right now is playing baseball. We’ll see.”

Machado is entering the fifth season of the ten-year free agent deal he signed over the 2018-19 offseason. The contract affords him the chance to opt out of the final five years and $150MM at the end of the 2023 campaign. Machado has already confirmed he’s planning to test the market at the end of the year. That declaration came as no surprise, as he’d be in position to handily beat a $150MM guarantee on the open market if he posted a season at similar levels to his last three years.

A new agreement with the Padres could make that a moot point. San Diego owner Peter Seidler told reporters this week re-signing Machado was his “top priority” (relayed by 97.3 FM The Fan). That obviously could take place after the season if/when Machado tests the market, but Lin’s report again raises the possibility of a deal coming together prior to Opening Day.

Financial terms presently under consideration aren’t known. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last week the club had offered an additional $105MM over five seasons on top of his existing deal, which would’ve brought their outstanding commitment to $255MM between 2023-32.

Seidler has signed off a rapid spending hike over the past few seasons. The Friars trail only the Mets and Yankees in projected 2023 payroll. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM free agent pact this offseason and have already worked out a five-year extension with right-hander Yu Darvish this spring. Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish and Joe Musgrove are all counting for more than $15MM annually for the foreseeable future.

That hasn’t deterred Seidler, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, and their staff from continuing to pursue star talent. The Friars took swings at Trea Turner and Aaron Judge before landing Bogaerts and clearly are hopeful of retaining Machado. They’re also down to two years of arbitration control with Juan Soto, who could be in position for one of the largest deals in MLB history when he hits free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Machado owns a .280/.352/.504 line in just under 2200 plate appearances as a Padre. He’s coming off perhaps the best season of his career, one in which he posted a .298/.366/.531 slash with 32 home runs to earn his sixth All-Star nod. Machado typically pairs that middle-of-the-order offense with excellent defensive marks at third base. He’s headed into his age-30 season, so any new deal (either an extension or free agent contract) would figure to come into play for his age-31 campaign and beyond.

Ken Giles Works Out For Padres

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Free agent reliever Ken Giles threw a bullpen session in front of Padres officials at their Arizona complex today, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Whether that has resulted or will lead to an offer isn’t known, though Heyman adds that Giles plans to continue throwing twice a week until he lands with a club.

Now 32, Giles is a few years removed from his 2014-19 peak. He was one of the sport’s best late-inning weapons between the Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays. Over that six-year stretch, the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.67 ERA while striking out a third of batters faced and limiting opponents to a .215/.276/.331 line. Giles remained at the top of his game for the Jays in 2019, tossing 53 frames of 1.87 ERA ball with a strikeout rate just under 40%.

Arm injuries have unfortunately intervened over the past few seasons. Giles was limited to just four outings during the shortened 2020 campaign. That season culminated in Tommy John surgery, from which he spent all of the following year recovering. Giles signed a two-year contract with the Mariners over the 2020-21 offseason. Seattle hoped he’d regain his excellent form in the second season of that deal but didn’t give him much of a look once he returned to health. The M’s released Giles after just five appearances.

While he caught on with the Giants on a minor league contract shortly thereafter, his stint with San Francisco proved exceedingly brief. Giles threw three times for their top minor league affiliate in a span of a week before being released. He didn’t sign elsewhere during the season. He’s returned to the mound this month, throwing for interested teams as he looks for a new landing spot.

Giles seems likely to be limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations at this stage of the offseason. He’s one of a handful of interesting relief fliers who remains available via free agency. Corey Knebel and Zack Britton are also former star relievers looking to rebound from recent injury issues.

Padres, Jared Koenig Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with Jared Koenig on a minor league contract, as first announced on Twitter by Matthew Rossignol. The left-hander seems likely to head to Triple-A El Paso to open the season.

Koenig, an undrafted player in 2017, spent a couple years in independent ball to open his professional career. He eventually landed a minor league deal with the A’s heading into 2021. Koenig pitched well for their Double-A affiliate that season and got a bump to Triple-A Las Vegas to open last year. He went on to throw 107 innings of 4.71 ERA ball — deceptively solid production considering the Pacific Coast League’s extreme hitter-friendly nature — over 20 Triple-A outings.

That upper minors production earned Koenig a major league call last June. He’d make ten appearances (five starts) in green and gold, allowing a 5.72 ERA in 39 1/3 innings. He only struck out 12.4% of opponents on a minuscule 6.4% swinging strike percentage. Yet he induced grounders at a strong 48.5% clip and kept his walk rate to a manageable 8.5% mark.

Oakland non-tendered Koenig at the start of the offseason, sending him directly to free agency without first going through waivers. The 29-year-old now joins the second affiliated organization of his career. Koenig adds a strike-throwing rotation depth arm to the San Diego system. He doesn’t brandish a power arsenal, averaging only 89.2 MPH on his sinker and 77.6 MPH on a curveball during his major league look. Koenig found success in spite of the lack of velocity in the upper minors, mixing five pitches and throwing a decent number of strikes.

San Diego looks set to open the season with a six-man rotation of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. Depth options on the 40-man roster include Jay Groome, Brent Honeywell Jr., Adrián Morejón, Reiss Knehr and Ryan Weathers. Koenig will slot in behind that group. He joins Julio Teheran, Cole Hamels, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks among non-roster rotation options who have some big league experience.

NL Notes: Song, Lee, Hamels

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The Phillies and right-hander Noah Song are going to attempt something unprecedented, as he is now in camp after spending the past three years in the Navy. Both Song and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters about the unusual situation today, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

“The reality is it’s a gamble,” Dombroski said of taking Song from the Red Sox in November’s Rule 5 draft. “That’s what it is. I do not know when he picks up a ball and he starts throwing off the mound and puts something into it, once his arm is in good enough shape, I don’t know if he’s going throw 85 or 95. But we think it’s worth the risk.”

Dombrowski is certainly familiar with Song’s past pedigree as a prospect, since he was with the Sox when Song was drafted. Some evaluators considered the youngster to be a first-round talent at that time, but Boston was able to take him in the fourth because clubs were concerned about his commitment to the military. Dombrowski said that taking the gamble this winter was worth it, even though Song was still committed to the Navy at the time, since he could be a “top-of-the-rotation type pitcher” or a “star major leaguer,” the type of player that’s not usually available in the draft. “For us, the [Rule 5] draft price is $100,000, and if we return him [to the Red Sox], it’s $50,000, so that’s not much of a risk, financially,” Dombrowski said. “He’s not counted on our roster, so we haven’t even lost a player to put him on the 40-man roster. We thought it was worth the gamble with the high upside that he could bring.”

For now, the gamble has paid off, in the sense that Song has been transferred from active duty to the reserves. That’s allowed him to pursue baseball but it doesn’t seem he’s completely without limits, as Coffey relays that his transfer to reserve status means he’ll be putting in 12 years of part-time duty instead of six years of full-time. As part of that part-time duty, he’ll still have to serve one weekend per month and two full weeks per year. The logistics of how that will play out during the season remain to be seen.

Song last pitched professionally in High-A in 2019 and will now have to try to get back on track quickly. As a Rule 5 draftee, he has to stick on an active roster all season long or else be put on waivers and offered back to the Sox if he clears. “It felt rough,” Song said of his first bullpen since the news of his transfer. “It felt like I was trying to walk again. Trying to learn new things. But as far as expectations go, just trying to manage expectations, really. I don’t really know what my future or ceiling might be. But just trying to figure out what it is, what the new one is, I guess.”

Song’s journey has already been a unique one and his next stage will be one of the more fascinating spring stories to watch.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • Nationals left-hander Evan Lee will be treated strictly as a reliever this spring, manager Dave Martinez tells Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Lee, 26 in June, came up primarily as a starter in his time in the minors, including a 2021 season where he pitched 77 innings in High-A with a 4.32 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate. He was added to the club’s 40-man in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He was able to make his MLB debut in June of last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA over four appearances, but he then went to the injured list with a flexor strain. He made some minor league appearances on a rehab assignment as the season was winding down but didn’t return to the majors and was outrighted off the roster in November. The Nats only have four lefties on their 40-man, with Patrick Corbin and MacKenzie Gore slated to the in the rotation, while Matt Cronin and Jose Ferrer have yet to reach the majors. Perhaps there is a path for Lee to get back to the big leagues but he’ll be competing with non-roster invitees like Sean Doolittle and Anthony Banda.
  • The Padres brought veteran lefty Cole Hamels aboard on a minor league deal recently but he won’t factor into their starting pitching depth immediately. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the southpaw won’t pitch in games until extended Spring Training and will then head to the minors. If he progresses to game readiness and isn’t given a spot on the big league roster, he has monthly opportunities to opt-out of the contract. Hamels missed the past two seasons primarily due to shoulder injuries, in addition to other ailments. He also only made a single start in 2020. Prior to that, however, he was one of the best pitchers in the league for over a decade. “As an athlete, we know we can compete and we’ve done it for a long time,” he tells Acee. “It’s just a matter of (whether) your body will allow you to do it. I think that’s the part that we all battle as our careers kind of come towards those ending points. The body and will you be able to get out there and will you be able to get results? Will you be able to recover? And that’s where we’re at in this stage, and that’s what I’m trying to do.”

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Catcher And Pro Scout Brian Johnson

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Brian Johnson was a 16th-round pick by the Yankees in 1989 out of Stanford University, where he’d been the football team’s quarterback and a jack-of-all-trades on a baseball club that won a pair of College World Series titles. Ironically, one of the only positions Johnson didn’t play in college was catcher, which wound up being his primary position over the course of an eight-year Major League career.

Johnson spent parts of three seasons in the Yankees’ system but wound up debuting with the Padres in the strike-shortened 1994 season, batting .247/.283/.409 and connecting on the first three of his 49 big league home runs. Johnson spent three seasons in San Diego, batting .260/.288/.392 along the way, before being traded to the Tigers in a trade that shipped left-hander Joey Eischen back to the Padres.

While his run in Detroit proved brief — 45 games before being flipped to the Giants in a one-for-one swap for fellow catcher Marcus Jensen — Johnson found himself with the Giants and closed out the year with his most productive stretch as a big leaguer. Following the trade, he raked at a .279/.333/.525 clip, swatting 11 home runs in 201 trips to the plate. He spent a second year with the Giants, hitting .237/.310/.396 in 99 games, before bouncing through one-year stints with the Reds, Royals and Dodgers.

All told, Johnson’s career drew to a close with a .248/.291/.403 batting line, 49 home runs, 60 doubles, six triples, 132 runs scored, 196 RBIs, a stolen base and a 29% caught-stealing rate behind the plate. He was part of a pair of NL West division winners: the ’96 Padres and ’97 Giants. Some of the pitchers he homered against include Al Leiter, Rick Reed (twice), Mark Portugal, Mike Remlinger and, in 2000, a rookie left-hander by the name of Johan Santana. On Sept. 18, 1997, Johnson’s clubbed a 12th-inning, walkoff homer that put the Giants into a tie for the NL West lead and is still fondly remembered by Giants faithful as “the Brian Johnson game” (YouTube link).

Following his playing days, Johnson returned to the Giants organization, where he spent 10 seasons in their pro scouting department. That included all three of San Francisco’s World Series victories in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

These days, Brian is a diversity consultant with the Chicago-based Kaleidoscope Group. We were thrilled to have him answer reader questions about his experiences on the field, in the clubhouse and as a big league scout for a trio of World Series winners. Brian graciously took two hours of his time to talk with fans, sharing memories of teaming with legends like Trevor Hoffman and Tony Gwynn, insight on what pro scouts look for when recommending trades, thoughts on the changes in the current game and his experiences and opinions on playing at the height of the steroid era. Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat!

Latest On Padres, Manny Machado

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12:29pm: A source tells MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that the report of Machado seeking a 10-year, $400 million extension is incorrect.  It is not known specifically what Machado is seeking, or whether his camp made a counteroffer to the Padres’ offer to add five years and $105MM to his existing contract.

With Machado’s February 16 deadline having passed, it seems his impending return to the free agent market will be a storyline throughout this highly anticipated Padres season.

10:19am: Padres and third baseman Manny Machado had some extension talks recently, to try to prevent him from opting out of his contract at the end of this season. Reports yesterday indicated the club was willing to tack an extra five years and $105MM to his current deal, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that was $145MM short of his asking price.

Machado originally signed a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres that affords him the opportunity to opt out midway through, after the fifth season. He will have five years and $150MM remaining when that opportunity rolls around this fall. Given that he’s played at MVP-caliber levels, especially last year, he could certainly find a guarantee larger than that on the open market. It’s long seemed like he would lean towards triggering that opt-out and recently admitted that he does indeed plan to do so. With the extra five years and $105MM, the club was effectively offering him a ten-year, $255MM deal starting with 2024. Nightengale reports that Machado’s camp was seeking $400MM over that same ten-year stretch, or an extra $250MM on top of his current deal.

Given that massive gap between the two sides, it’s not surprising that a deal didn’t come together. Aaron Judge was coming off one of the best seasons in recent history and earned himself a $360MM contract this offseason, one of the largest deals ever. That Machado and his reps are setting their sights above that range is quite ambitious, but also understandable. The player has the security of knowing that he has that $150MM secured, even if he should suffer some kind of worst-case scenario such as a career-altering injury this year. That gives him the leverage to set a really high asking price since driving a hard bargain right now doesn’t create any risk of coming up empty-handed.

For the Padres, it’s not surprising that they balked at such an ask. They’ve been quite aggressive in recent years, including their previous deal with Machado, their $340MM extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., $280MM deal with Xander Bogaerts and others. However, the kind of deal that Machado was seeking would have been on another level.

In addition to the straightforward cash dealings to consider, they also have the luxury tax to think about. It was recently reported that the club’s competitive balance tax calculation places them narrowly below the third tier of $273MM, with recent deals for players like Michael Wacha and Yu Darvish intentionally structured in ways that lower their respective tax hits. Going over that line would lead to increased taxation as well as their top pick in the 2024 draft being dropped by ten slots.

The CBT is calculated by the average annual value of a deal, not a player’s salary in a given season. Machado’s current deal comes with a $30MM hit but the extension he sought would effectively turn the contract into a $550 deal over 15 years for tax purposes, combining the $400MM he sought for the future and the $150MM that he will have earned at the end of 2023. That would increase his tax hit to $36.67MM, adding to the club’s tax hit and surely bumping them over that threshold.

Since Machado’s camp reportedly set a deadline of February 16 for contract talks, it seems that a deal won’t be coming together at this time. It’s always possible that the Padres come back with an offer strong enough to make him reconsider that position, but given their tax situation, it seems that things are aligned for Machado to play out the season and hit the open market again. He would be one of the top free agents in the class alongside players like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Nola. The Padres could always re-sign him at that point, but they will surely have competition from other clubs around the league.

Machado’s tenure with the club has been largely successful. After not qualifying for the postseason since 2006, they’ve been there twice in the past three years. Machado launched 32 home runs last year and hit .298/.366/.531 for a wRC+ of 152. He produced 7.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and came in second in the National League Most Valuable Player voting, trailing only Paul Goldschmidt. They have been aggressive this winter in adding free agents and seem poised for another strong season in 2023, but whether they can keep their star third baseman around beyond that remains to be seen.

Dodgers Hire Tyson Ross For Special Assistant Role

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The Dodgers have hired Tyson Ross for a special assistant position, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports (Twitter link).  Ross will be involved in the team’s player development and player performance departments.  The hiring seemingly indicates that Ross has ended his playing career after 10 Major League seasons.

A second-round pick for the Athletics in 2008, Ross began his career with three seasons for his hometown team before he was traded to the Padres during the 2012-13 offseason.  The right-hander reached another level with his new club, posting strong numbers as a member of San Diego’s rotation and receiving an All-Star nod in 2014.

Unfortunately for Ross, injuries limited his effectiveness after this promising run.  He pitched in only a single game in 2016 due to shoulder problems and eventually a surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.  After two injury-marred seasons, it seemed like Ross was regaining some of his old effectiveness during a solid 2018 year with the Padres and Cardinals, but after signing with the Tigers in December 2018, his time in Detroit was limited to only seven starts due to elbow problems.

Ross’ five innings of work in the Tigers’ 6-0 loss to the Twins on May 10, 2019 ended up being his final Major League appearance.  He signed a minor league deal with the Giants prior to the 2020 season but he chose to opt out of the pandemic-shortened season, and another minors deal with the Rangers in the 2020-21 offseason didn’t lead to any game time even in the minors before he was released that May.

Ross turns 36 in April, and he is hanging up his cleats after 203 MLB games (142 of them starts) and 904 2/3 innings.  During his time with the A’s, Padres, Rangers, Cardinals, and Tigers, Ross had a 4.04 ERA, relying on a grounder-heavy arsenal rather than blow-away strikeout numbers.  Ross had a 53.5% grounder rate to go along with a 21.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.

As he embarks on this new role with the Dodgers, Ross now finds himself opposite his younger brother Joe on both sides of the heated Los Angeles/San Francisco rivalry.  Joe (who is recovering from Tommy John surgery) signed a minors deal with the Giants last month.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Tyson on a fine career, and we wish him the best as he moves into his post-playing endeavors in the game.

Manny Machado Set Feb 16 Deadline For Padres Extension Talks; Team Offered Further Five-Years, $105MM

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Manny Machado set the Padres a deadline of February 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five-years and $105MM to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15-years, $405MM. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five-years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a ten-year, $255MM deal.

According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that in early December he set the Padres a deadline of February 16  because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So once the season started, I didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the guys in here and what our goal is — to win a championship. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just focus on baseball, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he received just the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the terms reported.

Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed just yesterday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five-years, $150MM on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and at 30 is both young enough and good enough to earn a long term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new team mate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280MM deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than ten-years, $255MM.

Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner up in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.

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