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Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers

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Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):

  • Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.

Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):

  • Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.

Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):

  • Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.

CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):

  • It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.

Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):

  • The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):

  • Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.

Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):

  • As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.

Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans For Bumgarner, Other Trade Candidates

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It was reported just days ago that the Giants were still planning to sell despite a run of success that has yet to abate. That’s not quite how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi characterized things, though he certainly left the door wide open to dealing.

While the postseason picture remains about the same now — the Giants don’t have a prayer in the division but are up to one game under .500 and 2.5 games out of Wild Card position — there are increasing indications that the San Francisco organization may seriously consider holding onto its best trade chips. At the very least, it seems the club is going to give its roster as much time as possible to position itself.

There seems to be a bit of a growing sense around the game that the Giants may well hold off on a sell-off. A rival exec says as much to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), while Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that top Giants trade candidates Will Smith and Madison Bumgarner simply aren’t available at this point in time. Presumably, the same holds true for all or most of the team’s many other trade candidates, no shortage of whom featured on MLBTR’s latest ranking.

If that’s the case, it seems a sensible initial move for a front office group that is in its first season at the helm. It would be exceedingly difficult to justify sell-side decisions at this immediate juncture when it’s still not known exactly how the situation will look at the deadline. Aggressive, early action is worth considering when you’re certain of the approach, but there’s a reason teams have typically waited until just before the deadline (and even beyond, back when August trades were allowed under certain circumstances) to make moves that can’t be taken back.

Hitting the pause button doesn’t necessarily mean the Giants won’t end up operating on the sell side. There are many arguments in favor of such an approach, as we touched upon in presenting our recent poll on the Giants’ deadline approach. The responses to the poll were interesting: about three of four MLBTR readers urged the Giants to sell. Less than one in ten advocated a buying approach, with most of the optimists preferring the team mostly stand pat.

It’s interesting to wonder whether some kind of blended approach could be pursued if the club has positioned itself in or near Wild Card position by the end of the month. One possibility would be to hang onto Bumgarner, a rightful legend of the organization, with the idea of issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end (or even extending him). It’s far from clear that the organization will recoup truly significant prospects for the lefty, with nagging questions about just how good a pitcher he really is at this stage of his career and only months of team control remaining. Hanging onto him might represent a justifiable middle ground. Meanwhile, the team could explore deals in which it would recoup youthful talent at or near the majors for some of its veteran hurlers (this trade might be something of a model). The Giants could even contemplate some additions of controllable talent if they see good value and a chance to fill an anticipated need.

For understandable reasons, Bumgarner continues to draw much of the attention. The undeniable allure of his historically exceptional postseason work is tough to ignore or write off. Thirty on August 1st, Bumgarner probably will never return to his peak levels of performance. But it’s also important to note that he has turned things up a notch as the season has gone along. He’s currently sitting at over 92 mph with his average heater and carries a 12.0% swinging-strike rate that’s second-highest in his career. Statcast does suggest some regression could be in store based upon the volume of hard contact Bumgarner has surrendered, but ERA estimators generally see him as a quality mid-rotation starter (3.69 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA).

It’s no surprise that plenty of clear contenders are contemplating a move for Bumgarner. There has been a steady stream of chatter on him for some time. There are a few recent market hints, though none seem particularly strong. The Twins and (less likely) Red Sox may have been eyeing MadBum when they scouted his outing last night, Jon Morosi of MLB.com suggests (Twitter links), though it’s awfully difficult to know what the presence of a scout means when the contest in question features so many possible trade candidates. The Yankees are primarily looking elsewhere but could still enter the picture, Martino suggests.

As for Bumgarner himself, his feelings probably aren’t surprising. Following a gutsy nine-inning performance last night, the surly southpaw told reporters including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area that his team is “making a push” for the postseason. Do the trade rumors bother MadBum? “I don’t give a …” well, you know. He continued: “I’m here to win games for this team, and that’s what we’re doing.”

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets

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July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.

July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner.  Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.

The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market.  As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.

Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation.  Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery.  Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.

Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent.  This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.

This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books.  While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility.  Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.

Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM.  The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.

Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list.  While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/18/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Right-hander Clayton Blackburn announced his retirement from baseball, as per his Instagram page.  Originally a 16th-round pick for the Giants in 2011, Blackburn posted a 3.46 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 4.05 K/BB rate over 751 career minor league frames, and he cracked Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects list prior to the 2013 season.  That promise didn’t result in any official MLB appearances, however, as Blackburn received call-ups to the Giants in 2016 and the Rangers in 2017 but he never got into a game, thus making him a so-called “phantom Major Leaguer.”  After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, Blackburn has decided to hang up his cleats at age 26.  We at MLBTR wish Blackburn the best in his post-playing career.

Giants Add Jandel Gustave To 40-Man Roster

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The Giants announced a set of roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Jandel Gustave has been added to their 40-man roster and assigned to Triple-A.  Travis Bergen was moved to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man spot for Gustave.  In other news, the Giants sent left-hander Andrew Suarez to Triple-A and called up southpaw Williams Jerez.

Gustave signed a minor league deal with San Francisco last winter, and has already spent much of his season at Triple-A Sacramento.  The 40-man roster placement does put Gustave a bit closer, at least on paper, to making his first MLB appearance since 2017 when he was a member of the Astros.  Gustave tossed 20 1/3 innings for Houston from 2016-17, though Tommy John surgery in June 2017 brought things to a halt.  After missing all of 2018 rehabbing, Gustave has looked shaky in his return to the mound this year, with a 6.85 ERA over 22 1/3 IP for Sacramento.

Suarez burst onto the big league scene with a solid 2018 rookie season, posting a 4.49 ERA, 2.89 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 160 1/3 innings out of the Giants’ rotation.  Thus far in 2019, however, Suarez hasn’t followed up whatsoever, as he has appeared in only three games (two starts) and has been hit hard to the tune of a 10.03 ERA over 11 2/3 frames.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Giants Do At The Deadline?

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So … with the Giants now within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot after winning twelve of their past fourteen games, should they halt a long-anticipated summer sell-off? There’s obvious appeal to making a push with a veteran-laden team, but also no small amount of risk in foregoing an opportune and much-needed chip-cashing opportunity on the trade market.

It’s awfully hard to pull the rug out from under a team that was built to win. The ballclub was constructed for contention by the prior front office regime, but seemed badly in need of a reset after two-straight miserable campaigns. Maybe it has taken longer than hoped, and hasn’t quite happened in the manner anticipated, but perhaps we’re finally seeing the fruit of the labors of deposed GM Bobby Evans.

There are some signs of recently improved play from the roster. Over the past thirty days, Giants hitters have paced the majors with 162 runs scored while producing a collective 111 wRC+ (11th in baseball). In that same span, the pitching staff has been a top-ten unit by measure of fWAR. The Giants’ very good and judiciously deployed bullpen has led all of baseball in net win-percentage added this season, which helps explain how the team has strongly outperformed win expectations based upon Pythagorean (+3) or BaseRuns (+6) evaluation. Perhaps there’s some magic yet in a dugout commanded for one final time by Bruce Bochy.

On the other hand, it’s easy to get carried away with recency bias. There really isn’t much evidence of underlying changes in the talent level on the roster that would suggest this is a much better ballclub than its 47-49 record would suggest. There are still five teams ahead of the Giants in the Wild Card picture, many of which also have legitimate chances at winning their divisions and will be improving at the deadline. The Giants have no hope of catching the Dodgers in the NL West and don’t appear situated to make notable additions, even if they do hold existing veterans. Fangraphs’ playoff odds calculator still places the Giants as the second-to-least likely team in the National League to appear in the playoffs.

Plus, the San Francisco farm system — despite making some improvements of late — could clearly stand to be supplemented. We’ve been talking for months about the increasingly appealing set of trade pieces the Giants can bring to the market this summer. Our recent ranking of the top sixty deadline assets is littered with San Francisco roster members. In particular, the Giants possess many of the top pure rental players and all but control the bullpen market. They could also have some chances at moving big contracts to help free the near-future books.

All things considered, it’s a tough test for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who’ll either have to sell the selling to the fanbase or risk hampering the rebuilding effort. What do you think he ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)

How Should The Giants Handle The Trade Deadline?
Sell 74.65% (7,688 votes)
Hold 15.66% (1,613 votes)
Buy 9.69% (998 votes)
Total Votes: 10,299

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Relievers By K/BB Ratio

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On Tuesday, with help from the top 60 trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week, we took a look at the movable starters who have outpaced the rest of the pack in K/BB ratio this season. We’ll do the same here with qualified relievers in advance of the July 31 trade deadline…

Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 7:33

  • Dyson’s just two years removed from being left for dead by the Rangers, who traded him to the Giants for a meager package in 2017. The 31-year-old has revived his career in San Francisco, though, and will garner a far better return this time if the Giants move him this month. Dyson has fanned 8.61 per nine innings against just 1.17 walks, induced grounders at a 55.6 percent clip and notched a nearly identical 2.74 ERA/2.73 FIP in 46 innings. Dyson, who’s on a $5MM salary, also comes with another year of arbitration eligibility.

Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres: K/BB ratio: 7.11

  • Yates is going to be hard to pry out of San Diego. Multiple reports have indicated the Padres are understandably seeking a king’s ransom in return for the 32-year-old. Since the Padres claimed Yates off waivers from the Angels in April 2017, he has evolved into one of the game’s premier relievers. Yates owns a jaw-dropping 1.10 ERA/1.28 FIP with 14.05 K/9 against 1.98 BB/9 over 41 innings this season, and has made good on 30 of 32 save opportunities. Adding to Yates’ appeal, he’s making an affordable sum ($3,062,500) and under arbitration control for another season.

Will Smith, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 6.22

  • There has been widespread interest in Smith, who – along with Dyson – has helped form an imposing late-game setup in San Francisco. Smith has recorded a 2.75 ERA/2.70 FIP with 12.81 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 39 1/3 frames, during which he has converted 24 saves on 26 opportunities. Although Smith’s making a reasonable $4.225MM this season, the 30-year-old would be a rental for another team, as he’s due to hit free agency over the winter. Having charged back into the NL wild-card race of late, the Giants might not be locks to move Smith (or their other vets) on paper. However, they’re reportedly planning to sell in the next two weeks despite their recent hot streak. Smith figures to be in another uniform soon, then.

Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays: K/BB ratio: 5.89

  • The 28-year-old Giles has dealt with an elbow issue since last weekend, but indications are it isn’t serious. If true, he should hold plenty of value around the deadline. Not only does he make a fair salary ($6.3MM) and come with another season of arbitration control, but the hard-throwing Giles is enjoying a career campaign. The former Phillie and Astro has registered a stunning 1.45 ERA/1.50 FIP with 15.39 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 in 31 innings. Giles also ranks second among all relievers in swinging-strike percentage (20.4), and has blown just one save in 14 chances.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 5.8

  • With three Giants on this list, it’s no wonder president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi seems inclined to sell this month in lieu of taking what would likely be a futile run at a wild-card spot. Plus, at 34, Watson’s not exactly a long-term piece for the club. While Watson, who’s making $3.5MM this season, does have a player option for 2020, it’s likely he’ll decline the $2.5MM guarantee in favor of a trip to free agency over the winter. After all, Watson has logged a 3.03 ERA with 6.75 K/9, 1.16 BB/9 and a career-high 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate across 38 2/3 innings this year. On the other hand, Watson’s strikeout rate is a personal low, he’s allowing more home runs than ever (1.4 per nine) and his 4.35 FIP and 4.42 xFIP aren’t the marks of a late-game force. He’s also having an unexpected amount of trouble against lefties, who have lit him up for a .341/.356/.477 line in 2019. There’s a strong argument for the Giants to sell high on Watson.

Giants Reportedly Still Plan To Sell Despite Recent Hot Streak

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The Giants have won eight of their past 10 games and are suddenly within three games of an NL Wild Card spot, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest 10 Degrees column that the team still plans to operate as a seller. The only real uncertainty surrounding team legend Madison Bumgarner, per the report, is where he’ll land.

“San Francisco’s recent success isn’t throwing a wrench in the team’s trade-Bumgarner-and-all-the-relievers plan,” writes Passan. The Giants, of course, have multiple intriguing bullpen pieces to market beyond Bumgarner. Will Smith is the top rental reliever available, while Sam Dyson is intriguing as a player who is both performing well and controlled through 2020. Southpaw Tony Watson should also draw interest, although as MLBTR detailed earlier this season, his contract isn’t nearly as affordable as some might think due to the large number of incentives he’s reached. He’s already at $8.5MM, and if Watson pitches in 14 more games this year, his salary will check in at a hefty $10.5MM.

Interestingly, at just about the same time Passan’s report hit the wire, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was presenting a less declarative stance — at least with the public. In an appearance on KNBR radio this morning (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), Zaidi suggested that he doesn’t take opportunities at the postseason for granted. “Every pennant race and every opportunity you have to get to the playoffs has a ton of value,” said Zaidi. “It has a ton of value to the fans and the organization, and we don’t take that lightly.”

Obviously, it behooves any baseball operations head to take such a tone when his club is even on the periphery of contending. The “never say never” adage probably applies to the current iteration of the Giants. For instance, it’s difficult to imagine them selling in an extreme scenario where they rattle off another 10 or 11 consecutive victories to surge past the .500 mark and into Wild Card position.

However, the outlook for a playoff berth still isn’t favorable. The Giants need to overtake five teams and then hold that ground. Even then, they’d be faced with a one-game playoff against a second Wild Card winner that is likely not quite as patched together as the San Francisco club. There’d be no guarantee of aligning their rotation so that Bumgarner could start a theoretical Wild Card game, either, as the Giants would merely need to focus on winning every game in a tightly contested race.

While it’s conceptually possible for the Giants to hold onto Bumgarner but still trade other pieces, that scenario feels like a stretch. It’s true that Bumgarner would be a lock to turn down a qualifying offer, thus assuring the Giants of at least a compensatory draft pick. That’s less true of Smith, though, and not even in the realm of possibility for Watson. Keeping Bumgarner but trading Smith and Watson wouldn’t be a wholehearted pursuit of a postseason bid, and keeping all their chips only to collapse in August represents a worst-case scenario — a massive missed opportunity to bolster an ailing farm system.

An August collapse is hardly out of the question either. Red-hot Alex Dickerson is riding a .455 BABIP since joining the Giants — a pace he cannot possibly sustain. In fact, over their current 10-3 stretch, the Giants have seven regulars whose average on balls in play is north of .350 — and that doesn’t even count Evan Longoria, who erupted for six home runs in 11 games after previously hitting seven in 72 contests before landing on the injured list.

It seems clear that the Giants have a better roster now than in April, when they were cycling through the likes of Connor Joe, Michael Reed, Mac Williamson and others in the outfield and receiving career-worst levels of performance from veterans Gerardo Parra and Yangervis Solarte. At the same time, the Giants would probably need another 39 wins to have a puncher’s chance at the second NL Wild Card spot, as that’d give them the same 85-win total with which the Twins sneaked into a one-game showdown in 2017. Reaching that level would mean a .582 winning percentage from here on out — a pace that only the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers and Braves have managed thus far.

The Giants would need this iteration of the club to play like a top-six team in all of baseball for a total period of three months in order to make a playoff run seem plausible, and it’s not only possible but likely that they’d need even more than that hypothetical total of 85 victories to actually land in the Wild Card game. Viewed through that lens, it’s not hard to see why the team isn’t rushing to change course after a two-week hot streak against mostly mediocre teams — even if it’s a bitter pill for fans to swallow. Zaidi’s comments do leave the door cracked in the case of another two weeks of .600-or-better play, and probably signify that deals won’t come early, but they surely do not signify a committed change to the club’s sell-side trajectory.

Latest On Johnny Cueto, Evan Longoria

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Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto is less than a year removed from undergoing a Tommy John procedure Aug. 2, 2018, but he’s already nearing a rehab assignment, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. Cueto will begin pitching in rehab games in the Arizona rookie league at the start of August, manager Bruce Bochy announced Tuesday.

The Giants’ expectation is that Cueto will factor into their major league plans this season, and considering the recent tear they’ve gone on, the 33-year-old could influence a playoff push. At 45-49, the Giants remain a serious long shot for a playoff spot, especially if they start dealing veterans by the July 31 trade deadline. For now, however, they’ve rallied to within three games of a wild-card spot in a crowded race.

Regardless of whether he does pitch for the Giants in 2019, Cueto has two more guaranteed seasons left on the six-year, $130MM deal he signed with the team going into 2016. The longtime workhorse and ex-ace lived up to the pact in its first year, firing 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA/2.96 FIP ball, but has struggled with injuries and failed to perform to his previous levels since then. Dating back to 2017, Cueto has given the Giants 200 1/3 frames of 4.18 ERA/4.55 FIP pitching.

Meanwhile, another of the Giants’ high-paid veterans – third baseman Evan Longoria – revealed Tuesday that he could miss two weeks to a month because of plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The injury forced Longoria to the IL on Monday, derailing a superb stretch for the former superstar. Longoria has posted a video game-like 1.537 OPS and swatted six home runs in 34 plate appearances in July, raising his 2019 line to .241/.318/.446 (101 wRC+) with 13 HRs in 311 PA. The 33-year-old’s overall production as a Giant has still underwhelmed since they acquired him from the Rays prior to 2018, though Longoria’s recent play has aided in the team’s improbable run toward contention. As long as he’s out, fellow vet Pablo Sandoval figures to handle third for the Giants. That is, if they don’t trade Sandoval in the next two weeks.

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio

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If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…

Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13

  • Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33

  • A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.

Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14

  • Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84

  • It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.

Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72

  • Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.
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