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Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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GM Meetings Notes: Mets, White Sox, Red Sox

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The Mets have about $20MM to spend to stay under the luxury tax, and though they haven’t ruled out going over for a season, history suggests otherwise, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The rotation is largely set with Cy Young Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz locked into the top four spots. Despite the rumblings, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been adamant about Syndergaard staying put, and as for the fifth rotation spot, relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are very real candidates. Free agent upgrades are more likely to bolster the bullpen, which is already a man down if Lugo or Gsellman jump to the rotation. Of course, the best upgrade they could hope for would come in the form of a bounceback season from closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz is putting in extra work this winter in Puerto Rico, and for what it’s worth, new manager and fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltran “considers mentoring Diaz one of his top priorities.” Here are some more notes coming out of the GM meetings…

  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.
  • The Red Sox are facing a different kind of offseason under the leadership of Chaim Bloom, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Scaling back the payroll is objective A, and the Red Sox are active in trade discussions around just about everyone on the roster. The media has Mookie Betts as the fulcrum of Boston’s trade activity, but he’s expensive on a one-year deal and unlikely to sign an extension, mitigating any trade return and making a deal unlikely. It’s more likely the Red Sox find their desired breathing room by trading from their rotation: David Price, Chris Sale, and/or Nathan Eovaldi. Meanwhile, discussions with free agents are largely on the backburner as they look for creative ways to free up space in the payroll.

Latest On Mets’ Rotation

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The Mets have begun the offseason in a bit of a bind in their rotation. On one hand, they have a 1-4 most teams would gladly sign up for in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. On the other, they’re facing the loss of Zack Wheeler – undoubtedly one of the best free agents available – and find themselves lacking answers at the back of their starting staff.

Considering the Mets play in a massive market, they should theoretically have the money to re-sign Wheeler and/or acquire some other pricey starter. But the Mets don’t behave like a team with a near-endless supply of money, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained a couple weeks ago, paying for improvements looks as if it will be a challenge for the club this offseason. The Mets have never started a season with a $160MM-plus payroll, yet they already appear to be above that figure right now without having made a single offseason improvement. Barring a significant spike in payroll, then, it’s doubtful the Mets will be serious players for Wheeler or any other starters who are remotely close to the top of the market.

Thanks in part to their payroll problems, the Mets seem to be making in-house contingency plans for the back of their starting staff. When introducing new manager Carlos Beltran on Monday, GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters including Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription link) that the Mets are considering deploying Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo as starters in 2020. The two “are preparing this offseason with the expectations that they may well enter the rotation,” according to Van Wagenen.

Gsellman and Lugo were starters as prospects who frequented the Mets’ rotation a few years back, but they’ve settled into relief roles in recent years. Still just 26 years old, Gsellman thrived as a starter during a brief debut in 2016, but his bubble burst the next season. Since then, all 120 of Gsellman’s appearances have come as a reliever. He amassed 63 2/3 innings over 52 appearances this year and logged a 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP with 8.48 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9. Those aren’t great numbers, though Gsellman did average a career-high 95.4 mph on his fastball and 90.6 mph on his slider. He also ranked near the top of the majors in curveball spin (83rd percentile), hard-hit rate against (88th percentile) and average exit velocity against (85.3 mph; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.

Gsellman’s more traditional production hasn’t been dominant, whereas Lugo has been lights-out since moving to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis in 2018. The soon-to-be 30-year-old pitched to a matching 2.70 ERA/FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates (11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9) in 61 appearances and 80 innings this season. Like Gsellman, Lugo’s fastball (94.4 mph) and slider (88.1 mph) clocked in at personal highs, and he was another Statcast favorite. Amazingly, Lugo’s curve spin ranked in the game’s 100th percentile, while his expected weighted on-base average against (.234, compared to a real .237 wOBA against) placed in the 99th percentile.

To varying extents, Gsellman and Lugo have clearly been assets for New York’s bullpen. Whether that would carry into the team’s starting five if necessary remains to be seen. However, moving one or both into the rotation may just create another hole for the club. The Mets’ bullpen, after all, was a consistent issue throughout this year and looks like an area they’ll somehow have to address as a result. That already looks as if it will be difficult when considering what seems like a lack of financial wiggle room for the team, and that’s with Gsellman and Lugo penciled in to remain part of the late-game setup.

The Mets are in a good spot with deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman and Matz, though there’s little in the way of solutions or depth otherwise. That helps explain why Van Wagenen claimed lefty Stephen Gonsalves, a former top 100 prospect, from the Twins on Monday. Gonsalves could end up as one of at least a few low-cost hurlers the Mets pick up this offseason as they look for back-of-the-rotation help. But if no one they bring in pans out, perhaps Gsellman or Lugo will slot back into a starting role.

Quick Hits: Diaz, Rays, Prospects, Stanek, Black

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Edwin Diaz’s struggles may finally be loosening his grip on the Mets’ closing job, as manager Mickey Callaway told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey) that “I don’t think we can lock ourselves in to one thing” in terms of who pitches the ninth inning.  “Moving forward, it’s just something that we’re going to do whatever we can to win a game that night,” Callaway said.  After a dominant 2018 season with the Mariners, Diaz’s first season in Queens has been a borderline disaster, with a 5.44 ERA inflated by a 22.2% home run rate and a huge increase in the righty’s hard-hit ball rate.  Just when it seemed like Diaz might have been turning a corner by tossing six scoreless innings over a seven-game stretch in July, he proceeded to allow at least one earned run in each of his last four outings.

This would seem to open the door for Seth Lugo to receive save opportunities, as Callaway said that Lugo also isn’t operating out of an assigned role.  Lugo has been the Mets’ best reliever this season, and could be shifted into closer duties or (if the Mets strayed from the traditional closer role) be saved only for highest-leverage situations, whether those are in the ninth inning or earlier in the game.

Here’s more as we begin a new week…

  • The Rays’ busy trade deadline is explored by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, who includes the detail that the club wasn’t willing to discuss moving many of their top prospects, including Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, Vidal Brujan and Matthew Liberatore.  Jesus Sanchez was the only member of that top tier who seemed to be on the block, and indeed it was Sanchez who was dealt along with Ryne Stanek to the Marlins in exchange for Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson.
  • Meanwhile, Stanek’s erstwhile role as an opener factored into the Rays’ decision to trade the right-hander.  Interestingly, Topkin writes that the Rays “shed the uncertainty of his opener-influenced arbitration case in 2021,” which promises to be a fascinating test case for how an arbiter could put a financial precedent on a new role within the game.  As Topkin notes, Stanek has been much better as an opener (2.71 ERA in 83 innings) than in a normal relief role (4.73 ERA in 59 innings).
  • The Brewers believe they might have a hidden gem in trade deadline acquisition Ray Black, as president of baseball operations David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Black has “as good…stuff as any reliever in the game.”  Black had only a 6.04 ERA over 25 1/3 career Major League innings as a member of the Giants, due in part to five homers allowed in that brief stint.  However, he also struck out 38 batters with his blazing fastball, and also posted a 3.70 ERA, 2.83 K/BB rate, and 16.8 K/9 over 153 1/3 career frames in the minors.  Between that live arm and those strikeout totals, Stearns thinks Black can blossom in Milwaukee, and pointed to a relatively healthy season for Black in 2019 as a positive development after multiple years shortened by injuries.  “The most important thing for him is keeping him on the field….He has changed some of his training regimens over the last year, and that seems to have helped. We’re hoping and optimistic that we can help keep him healthy,” Stearns said.

Reaction & Analysis To The Marcus Stroman Trade

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It was widely assumed that the Blue Jays were going to trade Marcus Stroman before the deadline, and many rumors suggested that he could eventually wind up in New York.  Exactly where in the Big Apple Stroman landed, however, ended up being the surprise, as it was the Mets (they of the 55-60 record and the six-game deficit in the NL wild card standings) who landed the right-hander, rather than the AL-leading Yankees.  The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two of the Amazins’ top pitching prospects.

Today’s stunner of a deal has already led to quite a bit of reaction and speculation about what moves could come next.  The highlights…

  • The Mets have “hijacked the [pitching] market” with the trade, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets.  The Mets’ plan is to keep Stroman, and “the likelihood is strong they deal at least one of” Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that New York could try to sign Wheeler, a pending free agent, to a contract extension, though Passan feels a long-term deal with Wheeler is “increasingly unlikely.”
  • The Padres have been heavily linked to Syndergaard since the offseason, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that San Diego is “not optimistic” about landing the righty, since the Mets’ trade demands for Syndergaard are so high.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Manuel Margot had been discussed as part of the Mets/Padres talks.
  • Seth Lugo is another Mets pitcher “gaining late interest” in trade talks, the New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar reports (Twitter link).  Lugo has been the Amazins’ best reliever this season, posting a 2.77 ERA, 11.94 K/9, and 5.15 K/BB rate over 52 innings.  Lugo is under control through the 2022 season, so he’d cost a hefty price in a trade, and one wonders if the Mets would even consider moving such a relatively inexpensive long-term asset since they’re planning to contend next year.  (Plus, Lugo becomes even more valuable to the pen if the Mets were to deal Edwin Diaz.)
  • Chris Hemsw….er, that is, Syndergaard himself poked fun at the trade speculation in a tweet of his own.
  • Several of The Athletic’s baseball writers (subscription required) joined forces for a roundtable discussion about the Stroman trade, with Jayson Stark perhaps summing things up with this comment that “Nobody can confuse an entire industry like the Mets.”  Multiple writers pointed out that the Mets’ poor infield defense doesn’t suit Stroman’s grounder-heavy attack.  If Stroman is the first step to flipping Syndergaard, it’s still an odd tactic for a team in win-now mode — as Tim Britton puts it, “New York is replacing [Syndergaard] in 2020 with someone [Stroman] older, with less team control, and whose track record is not quite as good.”  From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Kaitlyn McGrath notes that adding Kay and Woods Richardson meets Toronto’s desire for pitching depth, given the relative lack of young arms in the system.
  • Today’s deal ends Stroman’s often-controversial tenure with the Jays, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm chronicles the multiple instances when the “fractured relationship” between Stroman and the Jays become public.  While a trade may have always been inevitable given the Blue Jays’ rebuild, “bad blood on both sides is one reason why a team desperate for pitching opted to trade one of its most talented arms,” Chisholm writes.
  • Stroman (via his Twitter account) did leave with grateful words for fans in Toronto and Canada, while also expressing excitement at returning to play for his hometown team.

Mets Notes: Potential Sellers, Alonso, Lugo

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The latest out of Queens…

  • The Mets started 2019 in solid fashion, sitting a season-high five games over .500 through 13 contests, but have stumbled over the past month and a half. Now in possession of a 27-28 record, the Mets should consider an aggressive teardown if they’re not in contention around the July 31 trade deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. By going in that direction, Olney notes the Mets would mimic the 2015 Padres – a team that tried to contend, wound up failing miserably and then traded away several big-name acquisitions within the next year (Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton and James Shields among them). San Diego general manager A.J. Preller’s decision to pivot toward a rebuild helped the Padres construct an elite pool of young talent that has begun paying enormous dividends at the major league level. If Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen takes a similar route sometime soon, Olney names closer Edwin Diaz and the right-handed starter trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as players he could market in an effort to add more high-end youth to the organization.
  • Of course, New York’s not devoid of young, impact talent in the bigs. First baseman Pete Alonso, he of the .264/.338/.624 line (151 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 222 plate appearances, is a testament to that. The 23-year-old may be on his way to top rookie honors in the National League, but his journey to the majors wasn’t easy, as Tim Britton of The Athletic details. Alonso first joined the organization as the 64th pick of the 2016 draft, and Britton – with help from Alonso, his father and multiple Mets scouts – revisits that event and many other moments that led to it.
  • The Mets are likely to activate reliever Seth Lugo from the 10-day injured list Friday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News suggests. Lugo went to the IL on May 20 with right shoulder tendinitis, which has left New York’s disappointing bullpen without arguably its best setup man. The 29-year-old Lugo, a former starter, broke out as a late-game force in 2018 and has since pitched to a 2.30 ERA/2.97 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate in 78 1/3 relief innings.

Mets Place Seth Lugo On Injured List, Select Hector Santiago

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The Mets announced that they’ve placed right-hander Seth Lugo on the 10-day injured list due to tendinitis in his right shoulder and selected the contract of southpaw Hector Santiago to take his spot on the active roster. They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, although that could be accomplished by simply shifting Jed Lowrie from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list, as Lowrie has already missed nearly a full 60 days.

There’s no timetable for how long Lugo is expected to miss. The right-hander himself told reporters that the plan is to rest for a few days, adding that he’s hopeful this can be a relatively short absence (Twitter link, with video, via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). The discomfort in his shoulder began in his most recent outing and is only something he feels when pitching, per Lugo.

It’ll be another hit to the Mets’ pitching staff, as Lugo has arguably been their best setup reliever, pitching to a 3.12 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9 and a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 26 innings so far in 2019. Only fellow righty Robert Gsellman, the team’s other top setup option, has logged more innings (27 1/3) out of the bullpen so far.

Meanwhile, free-agent signee Jeurys Familia, brought back to solidify the team’s late-inning mix, has struggled and already spent a bit of time on the IL himself. With Lugo sidelined for at least 10 days, Familia will have to take on a larger role. To his credit, however, Familia has tossed a pair of shutout innings since returning from that short stay on the injured list.

As for Santiago, he’ll join the club after logging a 3.35 ERA in 43 innings of Triple-A ball (seven starts, one relief outing). Solid as that number appears, Santiago is toting an unsightly 38-to-23 K/BB ratio in that time and has benefited from a .235 average on balls in play while pitching for Syracuse. Santiago struggled with similar control issues for the White Sox last year when he averaged 5.3 BB/9 over 102 innings, en route to a 4.41 ERA.

Although Santiago has been starting in the minors, he won’t get the ball for tonight’s game. That nod will go to Wilmer Font, the team announced an hour ago. The Mets had originally indicated that Drew Gagnon would start tonight, but they announced earlier this morning that Gagnon wouldn’t take the ball to open the game after all.

NL Notes: Nats, Brewers, Mets, Giants

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With center fielder Michael A. Taylor on the shelf for a while, the Nationals “appear to be at least considering outside alternatives” capable of playing the position, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Free agency’s not exactly rife with options at this juncture, though, with 30-somethings Denard Span (an ex-Nat), Austin Jackson and Chris Young as the only experienced center fielders on the market. But Span hasn’t played center since 2017, when was among the majors’ worst outfielders; Jackson was similarly poor there last season; and Young hasn’t seen a lot of action at the position in recent years. So, if the Nationals want a legit center fielder to help make up for Taylor’s absence, they may have to turn to the trade market or hope a capable player hits the waiver wire in the coming weeks.

  • Even though he received a major league contract over the winter, Brewers infielder/outfielder Cory Spangenberg may open the season in the minors, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes. The Brewers are likely to opt for a four-man bench which would include Hernan Perez, Manny Pina, Eric Thames and Ben Gamel, leaving Spangenberg – who has a minor league option remaining – on the outside. Not long ago, the former Padre looked like a strong candidate to rack up playing time at second base this year in Milwaukee. Unfortunately for Spangenerg, the Brewers’ late-February re-signing of Mike Moustakas – who’s shifting from third to the keystone – put the kibosh on that.
  • Right-hander Seth Lugo will work out of the bullpen again this season after emerging as one of the Mets’ best relievers in 2018, though the 29-year-old wants to return to a starting role at some point, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. “I’m not content where I’m at, but I’m happy where I’m at, if that makes sense,” Lugo said. “Especially with the team we have now, I just want to be a part of it.” Lugo totaled 18 starts in 19 appearances back in 2017, but he functioned almost exclusively as a reliever last season, and that should be the case again this year.
  • The Giants have named Rob Dean as their designated interim control person to Major League Baseball, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. Dean’s filling in for CEO Larry Baer, who’s on leave as MLB investigates a public altercation he had with his wife on March 1. Baer and the Giants haven’t been in contact during his absence, per Baggarly, who adds the club’s awaiting the league’s investigation before it takes any potential action with him.

NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Reds

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Speaking alongside President and CEO Larry Baer, Farhan Zaidi rationalizes the Giants’ winter action thus far, saying “Our goal this offseason has been to surround our core of players, which we still believe is a championship core of players, with the right complementary players.” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle provides the clip (via Twitter), wherein Zaidi charms a crowd with good-natured humor, referring to his title as “the guy who reports to [Baer],” while also holding firm to an offseason strategy that has preached patience above all else. To hear him refer to the roster as having a “championship core” feels a tad hopeful, though to his credit, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, did quite literally form the core of two World Series winners – three for Posey, Bumgarner and Pablo Sandoval, who were all on the 2010 squad. So while Zaidi’s not wrong, one might also point out they also have the core of an 84-win team, an 87-win team, a 64-win team, and a 73-win team. Let’s check in on the goings-on from a couple other NL clubs…

  • While the Mets continue to keep tabs on lefty Gio Gonzalez, their interest has not reached the “multiyear level,” per sny.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). The Mets are emboldened by a strong second half from Jason Vargas, who combines with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler to form the presumptive starting five for the Amazins. Given the injury history of that group, starting depth is an important consideration for GM Brodie Van Wagenen, but Gonzalez should land a clearer path to a guaranteed rotation role elsewhere. If Gio’s market never does materialize, the Mets could circle back, but for the time being they appear content with the likes of Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt and Hector Santiago providing the rotation depth. Martino notes that Seth Lugo, who started 31 games for the Mets across the past three seasons, will not be considered for the rotation, as they plan on deploying him solely as a reliever in 2019. Lugo, 29, impressed in a swing role last year as his strikeout rate saw a year-over-year increase from 7.5 K/9 to 9.1 K/9.
  • The Reds have been active on the trade market all winter, especially in hunting starting pitching. They were one of the teams with early noted interest in Corey Kluber before swinging separate deals for Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray. They have also kept tabs on J.T. Realmuto, still one of the teams in the running for the Marlins’ star backstop. One name that both the Indians and Marlins have asked about is Jonathan India, the Reds top draft choice from a year ago. Per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter), top prospects Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, and Taylor Trammell are viewed as tough gets, leading teams to ask for India instead, but Cincinnati has as of yet refrained from including India in any kind of deal. It certainly makes sense for the Reds to hold onto India in the event that Scooter Gennett departs in free agency after 2019, but they’ll have a tough time getting a talent of Kluber’s or Realmuto’s caliber without surrendering any of the four aforementioned youngsters.

Astros Have Shown Interest In Seth Lugo

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Per Marc Carig of The Athletic on Twitter, the Mets and Astros have been “engaged” in recent trade talks, with the ’Stros reportedly “showing interest” in right-hander Seth Lugo.

Lugo was primarily a starter throughout his minor-league career and into the early stages of his first big league tastes, but shifted mostly to the ’pen last year, to excellent results (3.17 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9). Despite his somewhat-advanced age, the 29-year-old Lugo has yet to hit arbitration and is still under team control for another four years, so he does represent an attractive trade chip for a Mets organization still in the midst of a major 25-man overhaul.

The data-hound Astros, of course, are always on the prowl for the latest edge, and may have found one in recent times with their stockpiling of spin-rate savants, viz. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and, most recently, mid-season pickup Ryan Pressly, whose 3225 average RPM on the curveball ranked first among all big-league arms in 2018.  Lugo, notably, placed second, with an average curve RPM of 3173, and has long been considered to have one of the game’s fiercest hammers. His fastball, though, has also earned excellent marks, with FanGraphs grading the pitch as easily plus in each of the hurler’s first three big league seasons.

Following the departure of Charlie Morton to Tampa Bay, and the near-term loss of righty Lance McCullers Jr. to Tommy John, the back end of the Houston rotation looks much thinner than in recent seasons; Collin McHugh will move back from the bullpen, and rookie Josh James looks poised for another spot, but the fifth and final position is, at current, entirely up for grabs, to say nothing of depth-related issues. Houston could look to deploy Lugo as a starter again in 2019, though his career numbers in that role (4.26 xFIP) are vastly inferior to those as a reliever (3.03 FIP, 0.55 HR/9 vs 1.23 HR/9 as a starter).

The bullpen, however, remains an unquestioned strength – returners Pressly, Hector Rondon, Will Harris, and Roberto Osuna all had excellent years in 2018, and former stalwarts Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock (13.36 K/9 in 63 1/3 IP) struggled only with the longball. Given the glut of right-handed arms, Lugo would seem a luxury here if not for the contract status of the unit’s pillars: each of Harris, Pressly, Peacock, Rondon, and the now-injured Joe Smith are entering their final years of club control, so perhaps the Astros are looking to make a preemptive strike.

The Mets have certainly solidified the back-end of the bullpen in recent days, what with the trade for Edwin Diaz and the signing of Jeurys Familia, but the rest of the unit seems mostly in shambles: Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith, and Paul Sewald round out the remainder of ’18’s top performers, and none of the trio had a particularly encouraging season. The club could certainly use a defensive-minded type in center field who isn’t a complete zero with the bat, though dealing from its weakest regiment wouldn’t seem to make much sense.

Carig does take care to note that New York is “doing background work” on the Astros’ minor-league system, and later notes that the talks are “wider-ranging,” so it does seem more pieces are potentially at play.

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