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The Market For Shogo Akiyama

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Potential Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, 31, remains a popular target on the free agent market. Yesterday’s reports affirmed the Reds and Padres atop the list of pursuers. The long-time Seibu Lions centerfielder is said to have 3-year offers on the table, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Cubs and Diamondbacks have also consistently been linked to the left-handed hitter, while the Rays and Blue Jays have had reported interest at various times during the offseason.

MLBTR’s Dylan A. Chase asked readers early in the offseason to predict which NPB import would collect the largest guarantee. Akiyama landed firmly between Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shun Yamaguchi. We now know Tsutsugo claimed $12MM from the Rays while Yamaguchi got $6.35MM from the Blue Jays. Both deals are for two seasons. So while it’s reasonable to expect Akiyama to come on a fairly reasonable contract, the dearth of centerfield options could drive the bidding beyond either deal’s total guarantee.

Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding

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DECEMBER 27, 7:42pm: Aside from the Reds and Padres, it’s “thought” that the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe even the Blue Jays still have interest in Akiyama, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

6:55pm: The bidding is largely down to the Reds and Padres, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter). It seems the expectation is that he’ll reach a decision before the new year.

5:50am: The Reds have a multi-year offer to Akiyama on the table and are the likeliest landing spot for the 31-year-old, per a Friday report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link).

DECEMBER 26: When he declared his intentions to come to the majors, Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama entered an interesting place on this winter’s market. With so few viable center fielders available, and no shortage of demand, he offered an intriguing new possibility.

Interest has been fairly robust from the outset for the long-time Seibu Lions standout. And the chatter — at least, in Japanese outlets — has increased of late after Yahoo Japan reported (Japanese language link) that the left-handed-hitting 31-year-old would reach a decision in late December. If Akiyama has settled on a contract, it’s not yet known. But there are a few new hints to chew on. And other recent developments have had an impact on his market.

Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link) cites the Padres as a leading new contender. While it’s tough to assess the merits of those reports, they’re each rather notable for the impact on the market at large. The Pads only just added a somewhat similar player in Trent Grisham; it’d seem a move on Akiyama might portend a trade of another left-handed-hitting outfielder. Plus, adding salary would increase the team’s desire to move some of the money owed Wil Myers.

Then again, Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) labels the Reds the likeliest landing spot for Akiyama, citing the organization’s persistent interest. The possibilities are all the more interesting with regard to the Reds, who have seemingly been preparing to utilize Nick Senzel in center but could take any number of different directions upon adding Akiyama. There certainly could be implications for the club’s interest in right-handed-hitting corner bats such as Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. With six left-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man, the Cincinnati club would at minimum have to do some roster maintenance.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks have long been known to have interest. But it’s worth wondering to what extent either club is a legitimate possibility at this stage. The Cubs are reportedly sifting through pocket change and don’t appear to have any salary-freeing swaps on the immediate horizon. And the Arizona organization just added Kole Calhoun, which gives the team two well-compensated, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders around switch-hitting center fielder Ketel Marte (although he could shift back to second base if Akiyama lands in Arizona).

Another team long known to have interest, the Rays, also made a significant new left-handed-hitting addition to its outfield mix. Fellow Japanese standout Yoshitomo Tsutsugo secured a relatively surprising two-year, $12MM deal (plus a $2.4MM release fee) with the Tampa Bay organization. To what extent the Rays are involved at the moment isn’t entirely clear. But the team reportedly remains interested in Akiyama, even with multiple other left-handed-hitting options — including regular center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — still on hand.

While there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty, the foregoing discussion does indicate the layers of intrigue at play. In all likelihood, an Akiyama signing will be preceded by and/or will trigger some potentially notable corresponding transactions.

Hank Conger Joins Coaching Staff Of KBO’s Lotte Giants

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Former Angels, Astros and Rays catcher Hank Conger will serve as the new catching coach for the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. It doesn’t appear that Conger has formally announced his retirement as a player, but the move to a coaching capacity puts an end to his playing days for the time being.

Conger, 32 next month, was born in Washington and went to high school in California but is of Korean descent. He played in parts of seven seasons between the Angels, Astros and Rays organizations, recording a .221/.294/.366 batting line over the life of 373 MLB games (1134 plate appearances). Conger also saw action in parts of five Triple-A campaigns but hasn’t appeared in affiliated ball since the 2017 season, which he spent with the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate.

Conger was perhaps MLB’s premier pitch framer in 2013-14, and Yoo notes that his new team acquired 25-year-old backstop Seong-jun Ji via an offseason trade. The hope seems to be that Conger can aid in his development behind the plate as he steps into a starter’s role for the first time in his career.

Charlie Morton: Trade Chip?

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  • More from Olney (subscription), who expects Rays righty Charlie Morton to become a hot commodity on the trade market in the next year. There are no indications the Rays, coming off a stellar season thanks in large part to Morton’s elite output, are considering parting with the 36-year-old now. But with so few (or no) sure bets left on the free-agent pitching market, he’d surely bring back a sizable return in a deal at this moment. Morton’s also on a contract that would be appealing to most teams, as he’ll make $15MM in 2020. He has a $15MM option for 2021 that will become guarantee if he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list, but it’ll likely be a good problem for his employer if it does vest. Morton does not have no-trade protection built into his deal, so Tampa Bay could move him without his permission. However, Olney writes that the Rays have immense respect for the Cy Young contender, and if they do become open to parting with him, they’ll “probably feel out Morton” first.

How The Rays Landed Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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  • The Rays’ two-year, $12MM contract with Yoshitomo Tsutsugo wasn’t the highest offer received by the outfielder, though the team’s strong courtship of the Japanese slugger eventually convinced him to come to Florida, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  The Rays were the first team to contact Tsutsugo after he was posted by Yokohama, they provided him with a thorough 20-page booklet about the club and the Tampa area, and a six-person crew that included manager Kevin Cash and GM Erik Neander visited Tsutsugo in person prior to the Winter Meetings, while Tsutsugo was working out in Los Angeles.  All of the wooing paid off for the Rays, who now welcome a player with 185 homers over his last six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.

Steven Souza Jr. Reportedly Recovered From Knee Surgery, Generating Interest

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Former Rays and Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. is running at 100 percent and drawing interest from a handful of teams as he looks to bounce back from a devastating knee injury, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Souza underwent surgery in April after tearing the ACL, LCL, PCL and posterolateral capsule in his left knee in a gruesome and gut-wrenching injury at home plate at the end of Spring Training. Per Morosi, the Rays, Giants, Cubs and Rangers are among the teams who’ve shown interest.

That report paints a fair bit of overlap between the markets for Souza and Nicholas Castellanos — he’s reported to be interested in signing with the Giants, Cubs or Rangers — though it’s doubtful that any club has Souza ranked ahead of Castellanos (beyond teams whose payroll simply won’t accommodate Castellanos). That said, Souza could certainly be a fallback option for a team that misses out on Castellanos and/or fellow right-handed-hitting corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

Looking at the teams listed, the budget-conscious Rays are reportedly hoping to reel in a right-handed bat and assuredly won’t spend at the level required for Castellanos or Ozuna. But they’re plenty familiar with Souza, his makeup, clubhouse presence and on-field upside. Souza spent three seasons in Tampa Bay before being traded to Arizona, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’d be amenable to playing his first season post-surgery on the artificial surface at Tropicana Field.

The Cubs, operating in a decidedly non-Cubs manner over the past two winters, are reportedly looking to shed payroll to avoid a second slap on the wrist for luxury tax purposes. They paid out $7.6MM in luxury fees this year but seem motivated to avoid a second year of taxation despite the fact that a second-year offense would only see their penalty level increase from 20 percent to 30 percent. Nearly every report out of Chicago this offseason has signaled that a Castellanos reunion is far-fetched, but Souza would represent a more affordable option with some upside.

Meanwhile, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said prior to the offseason that adding power to a lineup that was largely devoid of home run threats would be a priority this winter. A healthy Souza fits that description and also fits with the slate of short-term signings the Giants have made under Zaidi.

The Rangers moved on from Nomar Mazara during the Winter Meetings and traded Delino DeShields this past weekend, creating some space in the outfield. They’re a largely left-handed club, so Souza’s right-handed bat could hold some appeal if other options (Castellanos in particular) don’t pan out.

Souza, 31 in April, was worth about four wins above replacement in 2017 when he hit .239/.351/.459 with 30 home runs, 21 doubles, two triples and 16 stolen bases (in 20 tries). He’s graded out as a strong defender in right field, per metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, although coming off such a major knee reconstruction, there’ll surely be some skepticism about his mobility and how well he’ll be able to track down fly balls.

Rays Still In On Akiyama, Also Seeking Right-Handed Bat

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  • After adding Yoshitomo Tsutsugo on a two-year deal, the Rays are still considering countryman Shogo Akiyama as a potential addition, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Akiyama would add another center field option to the fold and likely bring some on-base skills to the table, although he’s also a left-handed hitter and Topkin spends some time focusing on the Rays’ desire to add a right-handed bat to the roster as well. Specifically, the Rays hope to add a right-handed hitter with some defensive versatility — hence the earlier interest in Howie Kendrick — but such options are rather rare in this winter’s free-agent market. Of course, plenty of options could manifest on the trade market; speculatively speaking, the Rays seem like a fine fit for switch-hitting Tigers super utilityman Niko Goodrum.

Rays Reportedly Outbid Nationals For Howie Kendrick

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Rays Sign Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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DECEMBER 16: Tampa Bay has announced the signing. Interestingly, it characterizes him as a third baseman and outfielder, which obviously suggests that Tsutsugo will be in the mix at the hot corner.

DECEMBER 13: The Rays are finalizing a two-year contract with Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter). The contract being discussed would guarantee the first baseman/outfielder about $12MM total, per Topkin. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicates that a deal has been agreed upon (Twitter links).

Because he was posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars and is not a pure free agent, Tsutsugo would require the Rays to pay a posting/release fee to his former team. Under the current iteration of that system, a fee equal to 20 percent of a player’s first $25MM in guarantees is owed to his former team. That’d be $2.4MM on a $12MM contract, meaning a deal of this type for Tsutsugo would cost the Rays a total of about $14.4MM.

Tsutsugo, who turned 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.

Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, the left-handed-hitting Tsutsugo has played some third base in his career but primarily has been deployed as a left fielder and first baseman. He’ll presumably become an option at first base and DH with Tampa Bay, although the Rays’ fluid rotation of defensive players could afford the slugger some reps in the corners as well, particularly if the team wants to give newly acquired Hunter Renfroe a day off against a tough right-handed opponent. Renfroe hit just .208/.274/.459 against righties in 2019. On the surface, the signing of Tsutsugo appears to be bad news for first base prospect Nate Lowe, who also hits from the left side of the dish but never got a full look in 2019 despite huge numbers in Triple-A and a solid showing in 169 MLB plate appearances.

There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s power, but his glovework is a much more considerable question. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote a bit more than a month ago that Tsutsugo is a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations” even at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and could be “hidden” in an outfield corner with some proper positioning work. Those in the industry who’ve spoken to MLBTR about Tsutsugo offered similar concerns about his defensive home but praised his power as a legitimate tool.

Tsutsugo will now be added to an ever-changing cast of characters in a Tampa Bay lineup that has added Renfroe but subtracted Tommy Pham (Renfroe trade), Avisail Garcia (free agency) and Jesus Aguilar (waivers) to this point in the offseason. The signing of Tsutsugo could well put an end to any potential for a fit with free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, who’d previously been a rumored target. Tsutsugo was also connected to the Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox and Twins prior to today’s agreement with the Rays.

From a payroll vantage point, the deal should be a manageable one for the perennially low-spending Rays, who shed about $7.7MM in swapping out Pham for Renfroe and placing Aguilar on waivers. An even distribution of Tsutsugo’s $12MM guarantee would put the team’s Opening Day payroll at about $70.7MM (not including the posting fee), which would check in a bit south of last season’s $76MM Opening Day mark. The Rays have never opened the season with a payroll greater than 2014’s $77MM total.

Rays Meet With Shogo Akiyama

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  • We heard earlier today about Shogo Akiyama’s camp meeting with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link) adds that Akiyama and company also spoke with the Rays and Reds.  Contracts in the range of $8MM-$10MM over two years were discussed — this is a step up from MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $6MM deal, though Akiyama’s higher ask could reflect the level of interest in his services, not to mention this offseason’s thin center field market.

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