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Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Rays Garnering Interest From Multiple Potential Buyers

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According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome, the Rays would have multiple potential buyers if the club decided to sell, as groups both local to the Tampa Bay area and outside buyers looking to relocate the franchise to one of the cities that could be a potential candidate for league expansion. Rosenthal and Rome note one specific suitor: Dan Doyle Jr., CEO of local company DEX Imaging. Despite the interest, the Rays are still primarily focused on a new ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, per the duo.

As Rosenthal and Rome note, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has previously indicated that expansion wouldn’t be considered until the A’s and Rays have resolved their ongoing stadium issues and that fees could end up well above $2 billion. Given these factors, it’s understandable why groups with interest in ownership of a hypothetical expansion team would also look into purchasing the Rays, which Rosenthal and Rome notes would be expected to sell for less than the expected expansion fee.

The interest gives Rays ownership plenty of options as they attempt to secure a ballpark in either Tampa or St. Petersburg prior to the expiration of their lease at Tropicana Field, which will occur following the 2027 season. If the Rays were to relocate out of Tampa, Rosenthal and Rome note that the locality would likely become an immediate contender for expansion.

Of course, the Rays currently seem to be making good progress on plans for a new ballpark in the area, including support from St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch. While the progress in recent months is surely encouraging for Rays fans, Rosenthal and Rome still indicate that the Rays will keep their options open if they’re unable to securing funding for a ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, up to and including the possibility of a sale.

Injury Notes: Glasnow, Voit, Jimenez, Hendriks

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Rays starter Tyler Glasnow is getting closer and closer to a return, with the right hander set to make one final rehab start at Triple-A tomorrow before presumably being ready to come of the IL and join the big league club, as Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports. That could mean he makes his season debut at some stage during the Rays current home stand, presumably during the series with the Dodgers.

Glasnow missed the majority of the 2022 season while recovering from a Tommy John procedure, and hasn’t pitched this season due to an oblique injury. Of course, the Rays have done just fine in his absence, compiling a 33-13 record and sitting atop the American League. Yet Glasnow’s return will be a welcome boost to the Rays, who already have starters Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs on the IL due to Tommy John surgery, while Drew Rasmussen is also expected to miss significant time.

Injuries have plagued Glasnow’s career, but he’s been a dominant force when on the mound. Since the Rays acquired him from the Pirates in 2018, Glasnow’s made 50 starts and worked to a 3.05 ERA while striking out about a third of batters he faces. He’s playing out this season on a $5.3MM salary, and is due a $25MM salary in 2024 before becoming eligible for free agency.

Here’s a couple more notes on injured players:

  • The Brewers announced that Luke Voit will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Nashville tonight. Voit has been on the IL since Monday with a strained neck. That means he still can’t return until later in the week, but the fact that he’s starting a rehab assignment already suggests he’ll be ready to come off the IL as soon as he’s eligible. Voit has struggled to a .221/.284/.265 line without a home run in 74 plate appearances with the Brewers this year. That’s come with a troubling 36.5% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate, both numbers that are in the wrong direction from previous seasons.
  • White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from an appendectomy procedure, manager Pedro Grifol relays to reporters (including James Fegan of The Athletic). It was reported on Thursday that Jimenez hoped to return to the White Sox lineup by next weekend, and Grifol’s comments would seem to put such a timeline very much in play. Jimenez appeared in 25 games before hitting the IL, slashing .258/.321/.423 with four home runs. Much has been made of Chicago’s struggles to start the season, and the return of Jimenez will be a significant boost as they look to get themselves back into contention. Grifol also updated reporters on Liam Hendriks’ progress, telling reporters he will face hitters again in a live BP session over the next week. The veteran closer is cancer free and has already pitched in a handful of games on a rehab stint at Triple-A, so it stands to reason that he could be activated sometime soon. In any case, it’ll be one of the season’s feel good stories to see Hendriks back on the mound whenever he does return.

Rangers To Sign Tyler Zombro To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers are signing 28-year-old right hander Tyler Zombro to a minor league deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s less than two years since Zombro was hit in the head by a 104 mph line drive while pitching for the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate, which caused him to have a seizure on the mound and fractured his skull.

He did make a brief return to the mound last year at Triple-A Durham, pitching in two games before requiring thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. He was released by the Rays organization in March. Any comeback at all was a remarkable achievement for Zombro, who spent five days in the intensive care unit of Duke University Hospital undergoing brain surgery in June, 2021.

He never has made it to the big leagues, but has shown some promise as a relief pitcher in the minors. He owns a 1.87 ERA across 57 2/3 innings at Double-A, and has worked to a 5.30 ERA in a smaller sample of 18 2/3 innings in Triple-A. Triple-A is where he’ll report to for the Rangers, where he’ll look to provide the team with some bullpen depth.

 

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

Rays Recall Taj Bradley, Plan To Keep Him In Rotation

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The Rays announced this morning that they’ve recalled right-hander Taj Bradley from Triple-A Durham and optioned fellow righty Zack Burdi to Durham in his place. It’s already Bradley’s third recall of the season, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the top pitching prospect is expected to be installed in the rotation in a more permanent fashion moving forward. Manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the Rays “view him as one of our better options to go forward with.”

The 22-year-old Bradley, one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in all of baseball, has made three starts in his debut campaign at the MLB level. In that time, he’s tossed 15 1/3 innings and held opponents to six runs (3.52 ERA) on 12 hits and two walks with an impressive 23 punchouts. He’s fanned 38.3% of his opponents against just a 3.3% walk rate in that tiny sample and averaged a hearty 96.4 mph on his heater.

Things haven’t been quite as rosy in the upper minors this season. Bradley made three starts following his most recent demotion and was tagged for an ugly 16 runs in nine innings during that stretch, although the bulk of the damage against him came in one nightmarish outing that saw Bradley yield eight runs in a single inning of work. That sour stretch won’t impact his chance to carve out a long-term spot in the team’s rotation, however.

Even if Bradley remains in the rotation from this point forth, he’ll finish out the season with 146 days of Major League service time, leaving him shy of a full year. A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year voting could still supersede that accrual of service time and award Bradley a full year of service, as agreed upon under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Failing that, he’s on track to reach Super Two status and be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three — the first of which would fall after the 2025 season. As things currently stand, Bradley would be controllable through the 2029 season (again, pending Rookie of the Year voting or future optional assignments).

The Rays have one of the most talented pitching staffs in all of baseball but have been hit hard by injury, even dating back to the 2022  season, when prized prospect Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery. Early in the 2023 season, left-hander Jeffrey Springs looked to be taking his game to an even higher level after a breakout 2022 showing, but he made just three starts before requiring Tommy John surgery as well. The Rays also lost righty Drew Rasmussen to a forearm strain that’ll keep him out for at least two months.

Tyler Glasnow, meanwhile, missed the majority of the 2022 season while rehabbing from a Tommy John procedure and has yet to pitch in 2023 due to an oblique strain. He’s expected to return on May 26, per Topkin. That’d align Glasnow and Bradley in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Josh Fleming, provided all can stay healthy.

Right-handers Yonny Chirinos and Cooper Criswell provide some depth beyond that group, but the swath of injuries is putting even the perennially pitching-rich Rays to the test. Another notable injury or two would leave the organization in a tougher spot. Tampa Bay has plenty of intriguing arms on the farm (e.g. Mason Montgomery, Cole Wilcox), but the majority of their most highly regarded pitchers beyond Bradley are a bit further down the ladder. Former top prospect Luis Patino has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen in Durham and struggled in both roles. The Rays have looked into stretching out righty Calvin Faucher, but his longest outing to date was 2 2/3 innings — back on April 15. He hasn’t pitched more than two innings in an appearance since. Of course, the team pioneered the usage of openers and is no stranger to bullpen games; that tactic is always an alternative, but does take a toll on the staff over a long term.

For now, the hope will be for Bradley to stabilize one spot on the starting staff and for Glasnow to return in roughly a week’s time. From a bigger-picture standpoint, Bradley will look to follow in McClanahan’s shoes as the next homegrown rotation star from a Rays organization that routinely churns out high-quality pitchers (both draftees and trade acquisitions alike).

Rays Select Zack Burdi

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The Rays have selected the contract of right-hander Zack Burdi from Triple-A Durham and optioned right-hander Yonny Chirinos to Durham in his place, per a team announcement. Tampa Bay also announced that right-hander Javy Guerra, whom they designated for assignment over the weekend, has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A after clearing waivers.

This’ll be Burdi’s second stint of the season with the Rays. He came up earlier in the season and pitched three scoreless frames with a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio before being designated for assignment and passed through waivers. He accepted an outright assignment ten days ago and is now back with the big league club.

Burdi, 28, is a former first-round pick and top prospect whose career has been waylaid by injuries, including 2018 Tommy John surgery and a torn patellar tendon in 2019. He inked a minor league deal with the Rays over the winter, and while he got out to a rocky start in Durham this season, he’s tossed seven innings and allowed just one run over his past four appearances. Add in the three shutout big league frames, and he’s been quite effective dating back to mid-April, even in spite of an ugly 5.56 ERA in Triple-A.

Guerra, 27, has bounced between the Rays and Brewers over the past six months. Tampa Bay originally acquired him from the Padres in exchange for cash last April. After tossing 16 innings of 3.38 ERA ball with elite velocity but sub-par strikeout and walk rates, he was traded to the Brewers in an offseason swap that netted right-handed pitching prospect Victor Castaneda. The Brewers designated Guerra for assignment after he walked nine batters against five strikeouts while pitching to an 8.64 ERA in 9 1/3 innings, and Milwaukee flipped him right back to Tampa Bay for a player to be named later.

Guerra walked another nine batters in an even smaller sample of five innings (28 total batters faced) before being designated for assignment by the Rays. The former top shortstop prospect has been working to make the jump to a successful reliever, but his command is in clear need of refinement. He pitched 41 2/3 innings of 1.74 ERA ball with a 31.9% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate with Durham last season, and if he can get back to that form, he could yet be a prominent bullpen piece for the Rays.

As for Chirinos, he worked 9 1/3 shutout innings with a 5-to-2 K/BB ratio to kick off his comeback from Tommy John surgery earlier this year, but his work of late has been far less crisp. Over his past four appearances (one start, three following an opener), Chirinos has a 4.12 ERA in 19 2/3 innings with nine walks against just six strikeouts. His overall season ERA is a strong 2.79, but Chirinos’ matching 9.7% strikeout and walk rates tell another story. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.68) and SIERA (5.74) are far more bearish on his work.

Chirinos’ workload figures to be monitored this season as well, after he pitched just 33 1/3 innings in 2022. He’s already at 36 1/3 frames on the year between Triple-A and the Majors. He’ll head to Durham for the time being while the Rays figure out how they’ll manage a host of pitching injuries that included Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain, 60-day IL) and Tyler Glasnow (oblique strain, has yet to his season debut).

Yandy Diaz To Undergo MRI For Possible Groin Injury

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Yandy Diaz left today’s game in the first inning due to left groin tightness.  The Rays doubled in his first at-bat and then advanced to third base in somewhat awkward fashion on a Wander Franco grounder.  Though Diaz remained on the bases and then scored on a Brandon Lowe RBI grounder, Isaac Paredes replaced Diaz at first base in the bottom half of the inning.

Speaking with reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) after the game, Diaz said he will undergo an MRI to determine the nature of the injury.  The issue didn’t begin with today’s game, as Diaz noted that he’d been dealing with some groin problems for the last few days.  The Rays don’t play on Monday, so Diaz will get some time to recuperate and possibly avoid the 10-day injured list if his MRI results come back clean.

Losing Diaz for any amount of time would be a big concern, as the 31-year-old has been one of baseball’s best hitters this season.  Diaz has been crushing the ball to the tune of a .321/.429/.593 slash line over 168 plate appearances, and his 188 wRC+ ranks second among all qualified batters.  Long known for his ability to make hard contact, Diaz’s 95.7% average exit velocity, 13% barrel rate, and 58.3% hard-hit ball rate are all career bests.

While the 31-11 Rays have the league’s best record, they have also been dealing with more than a few notable pitching injuries, such as Jeffrey Springs’ Tommy John surgery and Drew Rasmussen’s recent placement on the 60-day IL with a flexor strain.  Jose Siri missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain, but Tampa Bay has been otherwise pretty healthy on the position player side, though Diaz’s groin problem threatens to end that streak.

Paredes and Luke Raley are the only other players who have played at first base this season, so they could form a platoon to take over for Diaz at the position if he indeed needs to miss time.  Vidal Brujan and Jonathan Aranda figure to be the top options for a Triple-A call-up in the event of an injury to a position player.

Rays Designate Javy Guerra For Assignment

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The Rays have designated right-hander Javy Guerra for assignment, per a club announcement. The move makes room for Zack Littell on the active roster after the Rays claimed him off waivers from the Red Sox on Friday.

Guerra, 27, had joined the Rays after the club acquired him from the Brewers two weeks ago in exchange for cash considerations. It’s been a difficult 2023 campaign for Guerra so far, as the righty has posted a 6.75 ERA with a 7.41 FIP in 13 1/3 innings between his time in Milwaukee and in Tampa. Guerra’s results improved over his 5 innings of work with the Rays, as he surrendered just two runs, but the control woes that saw him struggle in Milwaukee did not change. On the season, Guerra has allowed free passes to a massive 24.7% of batters he has faced, a figure that more than doubles his 12.3% strikeout rate.

Assuming Guerra is not claimed off of waivers or traded again, the righty will head back into free agency and look for a shot with his third club of the season, presumably on a minor league deal.

Guerra’s departure clears room for the right-handed Littell on the roster as he joins the Rays in the Bronx for this afternoon’s game against the Yankees. In 172 2/3 innings of work throughout his career, Littell sports a 4.17 ERA and 4.66 FIP with a 20.6% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. Littell joins a Rays bullpen that has seen a characteristically high turnover rate behind stalwarts like Jason Adam, Colin Poche, and Ryan Thompson.

Drew Rasmussen Shut Down For Two Months With Flexor Strain

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4:53pm: Rasmussen will be shut down from throwing entirely for two months, Topkin reports (on Twitter). If all goes as planned, he could restart a throwing program in the middle of July. That’d be a multi-week process involving bullpen sessions, batting practice and likely multiple minor league rehab starts. It’d be a surprise if he’s back on an MLB mound before August, but it at least appears the club is hopeful he’ll be able to return for the stretch run.

3:04 pm: The Rays have been dealt another huge blow to their rotation. As first reported by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay placed starter Drew Rasmussen on the 60-day injured list after the righty was diagnosed with a flexor strain in his forearm. He’ll be out until at least the All-Star Break.

It’s an out-of-the-blue development. Rasmussen pitched just yesterday and didn’t show any signs of being hampered. He twirled seven shutout innings in a win over the Yankees, striking out seven while allowing just two baserunners. The velocity on each of his fastball, slider and curveball was right in line with his previous work this season.

Surprising as it is, Rasmussen apparently came down with a severe forearm issue from that appearance. Topkin tweets that he’s hopeful of avoiding surgery but he’s obviously in line for a notable absence in any event. The Rays wasted no time in putting him on the 60-day IL, indicating they didn’t feel there was any chance of him being back on an MLB mound before July.

It’s horrible news for the 27-year-old hurler. Rasmussen has a checkered injury history. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through his sophomore year at Oregon State in 2016. The Rays drafted him in the first round the following year, but issues with his post-draft physical led the team to decline to sign him. Rasmussen subsequently underwent a second Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch as a senior, causing him to fall to the sixth round of the 2018 draft.

Selected by Milwaukee, Rasmussen debuted in the majors as a reliever with the Brew Crew in 2020. The Rays acquired him alongside J.P. Feyereisen for Willy Adames and Trevor Richards in May 2021. Tampa Bay began to stretch him back out to starting at the end of that season and has seen him blossom into an excellent starting pitcher over the past couple years.

Rasmussen started 28 games and tallied 146 innings last season. He worked to a 2.84 ERA with a decent 21.4% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.3% walk percentage. He’d been off to an even better start this year. Last night’s performance brought him to 44 2/3 frames of 2.62 ERA ball over eight outings. He punched out 26.6% of batters faced and upped his ground-ball rate to a strong 52.6% clip.

His stellar early-season work was among the reasons the Rays have sprinted to a 30-9 start. They’re remarkably five games up in a division in which every team is at least three games above .500. It has been an incredible first few weeks for Tampa Bay, but they’re navigating a mounting number of rotation injuries. They were always going to be without Shane Baz for the bulk of the season after last year’s Tommy John procedure. Tyler Glasnow has been out all year after a Spring Training oblique strain. He’s on a minor league rehab assignment and should be back within the next couple weeks, but left-hander Jeffrey Springs is out for the season after undergoing a Tommy John procedure of his own.

Rasmussen’s injury leaves Shane McClanahan as the last starter who has been a constant all year. Offseason signee Zach Eflin missed some time with low back tightness but returned a couple weeks ago. He’s been excellent through six starts. Tampa Bay has gotten their first look at top pitching prospect Taj Bradley, who seems likely to return from Triple-A Durham to eventually take Rasmussen’s rotation spot. Josh Fleming and Calvin Faucher have worked in a swing capacity and could take some starts, as could one-time starter Yonny Chirinos. Cooper Criswell and Luis Patiño are on the 40-man roster and working out of the rotation in Durham.

Depending on Rasmussen’s long-term prognosis, it’s possible the Rays eventually look outside the organization for rotation depth. They’re going to be left to rely mostly on internal options until the trade deadline draws nearer, though.

Rasmussen will be paid around the MLB minimum rate and collect big league service while on the injured list. He’s slated to be eligible for arbitration for the first time at the end of this season and is controllable through 2026. He and the organization will obviously hope he’ll be able to avoid another serious arm procedure and return to the mound without too extended of an absence.

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