Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market
Juan Soto‘s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.
The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.
The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.
The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.
Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.
NL West Notes: Estrada, Blackmon, Dodgers, Peralta, Ohtani
Giants infielder Thairo Estrada is likely going to be placed on the seven-day concussion injured list after he was hit in the head by a Mark Leiter Jr. pitch in last night’s game. Estrada was able to leave the field under his own power, after initially spending time on the ground being evaluated by team medical staff. Estrada has hit .262/.316/.406 over 342 plate appearances this season, a step behind his solid numbers from 2021 but still good for an above-average 106 wRC+.
Between this respectable bat and his defensive versatility, Estrada has been a valuable member of San Francisco’s roster, but his likely absence will leave the Giants quite thin at shortstop. With Brandon Crawford on the 10-day IL and yet to begin a rehab assignment, Jason Vosler is the only player on the active roster with any time at shortstop this season. It seems likely that one of Isan Diaz or Donovan Walton will need to be called up from Triple-A to fill that void, unless the Giants make another move in advance of the trade deadline. Since the Giants could be sellers at the deadline, Estrada’s injury probably ensures that he’ll remain in San Francisco beyond August 2, though his team control through the 2026 season already made him one of the Giants players less likely to be moved.
More from around the NL West…
- Rockies GM Bill Schmidt told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post) that the club hasn’t received any trade asks about Charlie Blackmon, though it doesn’t seem like Blackmon would waive his 10-and-5 rights to allow a deal anyway. Blackmon has spent his entire professional career in the Colorado organization, and “I think it would be much more fulfilling for me to be successful with the Rockies than it would be to do it somewhere else, after what I’ve been through and the commitment from both sides.” Blackmon already said last October that he was planning to exercise his 2023 player option (worth at least $10MM), and intimated to Saunders and other reporters that his perspective hadn’t changed.
- Before the Diamondbacks traded David Peralta to the Rays yesterday, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers had interest in Peralta’s services. With Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy struggling all season long, the Dodgers could use some more help from the left side of the plate, and the team has the flexibility to explore options ranging from platoon options to superstars like Juan Soto. As for Peralta, it could be that the D’Backs preferred the Rays’ offer to whatever the Dodgers were willing to give up, or perhaps Arizona wanted more in exchange for moving Peralta to a division rival.
- Speaking of big left-handed bats, “the Dodgers have tried to engage the Angels” about a possible Shohei Ohtani trade, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. The Angels are reportedly at least listening to other teams’ offers for Ohtani, even if Anaheim’s asking price is said to be huge, and a trade seems quite unlikely. Morosi’s specific phrasing implies that the Angels weren’t willing to truly “engage” with the Dodgers in talks, which perhaps isn’t surprising — as Morosi notes, “many in the industry are skeptical that Ohtani would be dealt to the Angels’ geographic rival.”
Cubs, Dodgers Swap Chris Martin For Zach McKinstry
The Dodgers have made one of the first bullpen pickups of note prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline, announcing Saturday that they’ve acquired right-hander Chris Martin from the Cubs in exchange for infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry.
Martin, 36, is playing the 2022 season on a one-year, $2.5MM contract he signed as a free agent this winter. His deal comes with $750K worth of incentives, paid out in the form of a $100K bonus for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances, plus $125K for spending 40 and 90 days on the active roster.
Martin has already appeared in 34 games and logged 31 1/3 innings of 4.31 ERA ball this season, although fielding-independent metrics are far more bullish (3.02 FIP, 2.09 SIERA). Martin has been uncharacteristically homer-prone this year but has maintained his elite command of the strike zone. He’s punched out 30.1% of his opponents thus far and walked just four of the 133 batters he’s faced (3.1%). One of those free passes was of the intentional variety, it should be noted, and Martin has also yet to hit a batter this season.
The towering 6’8″ Martin is one of the more notable overseas success stories in recent years. After a nondescript run with the Rockies and Yankees in 2014-15, he signed with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and tore through NPB lineups over a brilliant two-year stint there. He signed with the Rangers for the 2018 campaign and, after a pedestrian first season back in MLB has solidified himself as a quality late-inning reliever. Over the past four seasons, Martin touts a 3.46 ERA with a 26.5% strikeout rate and an impeccable 3% walk rate. Among the 431 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 big league innings in that time, Martin’s walk rate is the second-lowest in the game (narrowly trailing former teammate Josh Tomlin‘s 2.9% mark).
Martin will give manager Dave Roberts some reinforcement in what’s been a generally strong but also very injury-plagued relief corps. Dodgers relievers rank sixth in the Majors with s 3.37 ERA, but they’ve lost Daniel Hudson for the season (torn ACL), aren’t clear when Blake Treinen (shoulder) will return, and also have each of Brusdar Graterol, Victor Gonzalez and Tommy Kahnle on the injured list at present.
In return for their one-year investment in Martin, the Cubs will acquire as many as five additional seasons of control over the 27-year-old McKinstry, who made his debut with the 2020 Dodgers and has been an up-and-down utility option in L.A. since that time. A lefty hitter with experience at second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots (albeit just 18 innings in center), McKinstry has posted just a .210/.266/.403 batting line in the big leagues. That’s come in a tiny sample of 193 plate appearances, however, and he’s been outstanding during his time at the Triple-A level.
McKinstry, a former 33rd-round pick, has logged 489 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City in parts of three seasons and put together a huge .323/.401/.550. The Pacific Coast League is a known hitters’ haven, but McKinstry has nonetheless been well above league-average on a rate basis and racked up an impressive 18 home runs, 25 doubles and nine triples there. He’s fanned in just 15.7% of his plate appearances and walked at a 10.8% clip as well.
While McKinstry likely profiles more as a utility player than a starter at the big league level, there’s at least a chance he could hit enough to be a regular at second base — his best defensive position. If not, he’ll give the Cubs someone to bounce around the diamond as a valuable role player for the foreseeable future. McKinstry will be out of minor league options next season, so he should receive ample opportunity sooner than later.
ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that Martin had been traded to the Dodgers (Twitter link). Patrick Mooney of The Athletic first reported that McKinstry was headed to the Cubs in return (Twitter link).
Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market
With four days to go until Tuesday evening’s trade deadline, the floodgates of activity have yet to really open. There’s nevertheless been plenty of chatter about the game’s top trade candidate, Juan Soto. The Nationals superstar will continue to be the talk of the summer market until the club either pulls the trigger on a deal or the deadline passes.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams generally viewed as those best positioned to pull off the blockbuster. That wasn’t a comprehensive list of clubs with interest, although Jim Bowden of the Athletic tweets this evening that only four clubs remain in the market. Bowden adds that the Padres and Cardinals are among that group of four, but the identities of the other two teams remain unknown. To be clear, it’s not a certainty that no one besides St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas is still in the mix.
Previous reports have tied the Mariners, Giants, Mets and Yankees to Soto, but the general belief is the Nats aren’t interested in dealing him within the NL East. Meanwhile, Heyman wrote last night the Nats “seem focused” on teams other than the Yankees. That’s not to say the Yankees are out, as Heyman unsurprisingly notes they’re still interested in Soto after acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals.
The Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers are obvious entrants into the Soto bidding. They’re each 2022 contenders with a robust collection of young major league and/or farm talent, and all three have proven bold enough to trade for star players in recent years. The Rangers are perhaps a more surprising entrant into the market since they’re not in the playoff mix this year, but Texas has long maintained they expect to compete in earnest by next season. With Soto controllable for an additional two seasons, the Rangers could enter the fray with an eye towards adding another star to the 2023-24 rosters after big free agent pickups of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas has indeed been in contact with the Washington front office and continues to monitor the market. Whether they’ll be willing to meet the Nationals’ understandably astronomical asking price — and top the offers of clubs that are eyeing Soto as a target to improve their 2022 odds as well — remains to be seen. Grant suggests the Rangers may prefer to focus their resources, both financial and in terms of prospect capital, on their efforts to add talent to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last night in an appearance on Fox Sports that the general expectation is that Texas will be outbid by a more motivated club (Twitter link).
There’ll be more clarity on the Soto negotiations over the next few days. One thing that does not appear to be under consideration: the sides reopening extension talks before the trade deadline. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post hears the Nats aren’t planning to make another extension offer (Twitter link). General manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Washington made a 15-year, $440MM proposal that Soto rejected a few weeks ago. That apparently marked the final extent to which the Nationals were willing to go, at least this summer. That’s not to say the Nats have to force a trade imminently, since his remaining arbitration eligibility would allow them to revisit extension and/or trade talks next offseason if he’s not dealt before Tuesday.
Bullpen Rumors: Robertson, Cubs, Rays, Tigers, Dodgers
Cubs closer David Robertson is among the most popular names on the trade market for relievers, and both New York clubs have interest in bringing him aboard. The Yankees, who’ve enjoyed two separate stints from Robertson in the past, are interested in another reunion with the 37-year-old righty, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff’s colleague Mike Puma, meanwhile, writes that the Mets are intrigued by Robertson in part because of how effective he’s been against left-handers this season. The Mets don’t have a reliable southpaw option at the moment and there that many quality lefty relievers available, so Robertson’s lack of a platoon split is an understandably appealing trait. FanSided’s Robert Murray writes that the Mets “love” Robertson. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that the Rays were among the teams evaluating the Cubs’ relievers.
Through 39 1/3 innings this season, Robertson has pitched to a 1.83 ERA with 14 saves and a big 31.4% strikeout rate — albeit with a bloated 11.9% walk rate. He’s earning just a $3.5MM base salary, though performance bonuses figure to take that number as high as $5.1MM. The majority of contending clubs figure to check in not only on Robertson but on Cubs righties Mychal Givens and Chris Martin, both of whom are free agents at season’s end. Murray notes that Givens has also been drawing strong interest around the league.
A few more notes on the market for relievers…
- The Tigers are receiving trade interest on lefty Andrew Chafin and righties Michael Fulmer, Joe Jimenez and Alex Lange, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. McCosky spoke with both Fulmer and Jimenez about the complex emotions of potentially being traded away from the organization they’ve both called home for nearly their entire careers (or, in Jimenez’s case, for his entire pro career). It’s been apparent for some time now that Detroit’s slate of solid bullpen arms would hold major appeal to contending clubs at the deadline, and Fulmer and Chafin seem especially likely to go, given that they’ll both be eligible for free agency at season’s end. (Chafin has a $6.5MM player option.) Jimenez, controlled through 2023, stands a decent chance of being moved as well, but it’d be hard to part with Lange, whom the Tigers can control all the way through 2027. That said, Detroit is reportedly willing to listen on just about anyone, including lefty Tarik Skubal.
- Dodgers righty Blake Treinen is taking longer to return than originally anticipated, though manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Treinen has not experienced a setback (Twitter link via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Treinen pitched a bullpen session yesterday but won’t face live hitters for a couple weeks still, which makes a late-August or early-September return likely. Robert said back in May that the organization hoped Treinen, who hasn’t pitched since April due to a shoulder injury, was targeting a return not long after the All-Star break. Treinen is joined on the injured list by Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, Brusdar Graterol and Victor Gonzalez, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Los Angeles pursue some bullpen upgrades before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
NL West Notes: Soto, Padres, Merrill, Wood, Giants, Heaney, Taylor
Speculation continues to swirl over which team (if any) could pry Juan Soto away from the Nationals before the trade deadline, or even which clubs are the top contenders as we approach August 2. According to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post, the Nats may be “focusing on one or two teams at the moment,” with the Cardinals seen by some rivals as a likely contender to be one of those clubs due to St. Louis’ amount of MLB-ready talent. As far as the NL West goes, however, a rival executive tells The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “I think San Diego is as likely as the other 28 teams combined. They have the players and they have [A.J.] Preller.”
Certainly, the Padres‘ president of baseball operations is always open to bold moves, and that confidence extends to the team’s prospects in the sense that the Padres “are confident they can keep replenishing their farm system.” While San Diego has already dealt quality blue-chippers in other deals over the years, more intriguing new names keep emerging. For instance, Rosenthal writes that teams have shown interest in shortstop Jackson Merrill and outfielder James Wood, the Padres’ two top picks from the 2021 draft. Merrill and Wood were both high school selections who are still a few years away from the bigs, so in regards to Soto, the Padres could hang onto the young duo as future building blocks while dealing other prospects who better fit the Nationals’ demands.
More from the NL West…
- The Giants‘ defense was an underrated reason behind the club’s success in 2021, but this year, San Francisco has fallen near the bottom of several major defensive statistics. As a result, Rosenthal reports that the Giants are considering adding a strong defender, ideally for an infielder or DH candidate (Tommy La Stella is cited as an example by Rosenthal). Getting one good glove into the mix might raise all tides, allowing the Giants to better align their fielders and help fill the holes created by multiple injuries around the roster.
- Andrew Heaney is expected to be activated off the 15-day injured list to start the Dodgers‘ game against the Nationals on Wednesday, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters. After two starts to open the season, Heaney has made only one other appearance (on June 19), sandwiched between two lengthy IL stints due to shoulder problems. The left-hander tossed five innings in his last minor league rehab start, and it’s safe to assume L.A. will keep Heaney’s workload relatively limited as he ramps back up. In other Dodgers injury news, Chris Taylor (foot fracture) took part in batting practice yesterday and might be ticketed for a rehab assignment later this week.
Latest On Juan Soto’s Market
Ever since it emerged that the Nationals are willing to entertain trade offers on Juan Soto, the whole baseball world has been obsessed with trying to figure out where he could go and what a fair trade would even look like. That likely won’t change, with Soto rumors sure to continue flying every day until the August 2 deadline, unless a trade is completed sooner.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the situation, outlining how Soto is arguably the most attractive trade chip in recent memory or perhaps ever. Given his talent, youth and remaining years of control, just about every team is going to be calling the Nats and getting a feel for what kind of deal they’re looking to make.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the discussions have begun and, unsurprisingly, Soto is drawing widespread interest. He lists the Mariners, Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees and Mets as seven teams that have already opened up the lines of communication with Washington.
None of those are particularly surprising, with all seven of them having been listed by Adams as being among the best fits. There is a potential complicating factor in the talks, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Nationals want to combine Soto with Patrick Corbin in trades, in order to get Corbin’s contract off their books. As an additional detail, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looks at the pros and cons of including Corbin in the deal, adding that Corbin has a partial no-trade clause. Despite that, Dougherty adds that this won’t prevent a deal from coming together, implying that either Corbin’s clause is minimal enough to not include the primary suitors, or perhaps that he would be willing to waive the clause and move to a new club with Soto.
While the Nationals are surely open to moving Corbin and getting out from under his contract, it’s unclear how important that is to them. Signed to a six-year, $140MM contract prior to 2019, the first season was a resounding success. Corbin threw 202 innings with a 3.25 ERA, then added another 23 1/3 frames in the postseason as the Nats won the first World Series title in the history of the franchise. It’s been essentially all downhill since then, however, with Corbin’s strikeouts disappearing and ERA escalating. After strikeout rates of 30.8% in 2018 and 28.5% in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% in the three subsequent seasons. His ERA shot up to 4.66 in 2020, then 5.82 last year and 5.87 this year.
As for Corbin’s contract, it was heavily backloaded. His salary this year is $23.42MM, leaving approximately $8MM to be paid out from the deadline onwards. Then he’ll make $24.42MM next year and a big jump to $35.42 in 2024. That’s the last year of the deal, though there’s also $10MM in deferred money to be paid out from November of 2024 to January of 2026.
The combination of Corbin’s poor performance and hefty salary give him negative trade value. As such, any Corbin-Soto combo trade will lead to the Nationals recouping a lesser prospect package than a trade involving Soto alone. On the surface, it seems strange that the Nats would be strongly motivated towards such a scenario. Trading Soto means giving up on being competitive through 2024 anyhow, so getting Corbin’s contract off the books for that season shouldn’t be a high priority. With Soto out of the picture, the only other meaningful salary they will be paying in 2024 and beyond is going to Stephen Strasburg, who’s getting $35MM per year through 2026. Spending $70MM to Strasburg and Corbin in 2024 surely isn’t ideal, but the rest of the roster will likely be filled out with pre-arb players or those who have just qualified and earned minimal raises. The club ran a payroll of $183MM as recently as last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and has already stripped it down to $135MM this year.
But if the Nats are indeed motivated to get that money off the ledger ahead of schedule, it will change the calculus of which teams make the most sense as trading partners. Teams on the receiving end will be taking on two meaningful salaries, as Soto is well-paid himself. He’s earning $17.1MM this year and will be due arbitration raises in the next two campaigns, possibly getting near the $25MM range next year and above $30MM for 2024, as long as he stays healthy. Even for the rest of this campaign, Soto will have about $6MM left to be paid out at the time of the deadline. Combined with the approximately $8MM owed to Corbin, that will add $14MM to this year’s payroll for any team acquiring both.
As Steve Adams highlighted in the piece linked above, all seven teams that Nightengale listed have marquee young players that could headline a return in a Soto deal. The prospect of taking Corbin in return might be more exciting to some than others, however. The Padres crossed the luxury tax line last year and have been right up against it this year, seemingly loath to cross it for a second straight season and therefore facing escalating penalties. They’ve been rumored to be trying to trade away one of their pitchers in order to create payroll space for additions elsewhere. Suddenly acquiring another expensive starter, and one who isn’t pitching well, would fly in the face of those plans. Although, perhaps Soto’s availability is such a unique situation that it makes them rethink everything.
The Cardinals had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM, per Cot’s, which is a bit shy of their $164MM record. Adding $14MM to get into record territory is likely an acceptable outcome this year, but would become complicated in the years to come. Adam Wainwright‘s $17.5MM is the biggest contract coming off the books at the end of the year, but there would likely be mutual interest in another deal, based on precedent. He’s having another excellent season and would likely command a similar contract. Yadier Molina‘s $10MM is coming off the books, though Soto and Corbin would add about $50MM onto it, and the Cards would still have to figure out a solution behind the plate.
The Mets already have a massive payroll but don’t seem to have any limitations in that regard. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed a willingness to spend beyond the fourth CBT barrier, which the club is already right on top of. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource calculates their CBT number as $290.1MM, a smidge over the $290MM barrier. Regardless of the financial picture, however, there’s the question of whether the Nats have any interest in trading Soto within the division. Andy Martino of SNY reports that Soto landing with the Mets is extremely unlikely, with the Nats not keen on seeing Soto return to Washington so frequently with a new uniform.
The Giants and Mariners might be in a better position than these other teams to take on meaningful salary in order to get Soto. The Giants had a payroll of $155MM on Opening Day, per Cot’s, but were up at $201MM a few years ago. They also have some decent money coming off the books this winter. Carlos Rodon is making $21.5MM and can opt out if he reaches 110 innings pitched. Given that he’s currently at 105 and having another excellent season, he’s a virtual lock to trigger that opt-out. Brandon Belt accepted the $18.4MM qualifying offer and will return to the open market in a few months. Brandon Crawford is making $16MM this year and next, but a free agent after that. The only guaranteed contract they have on the books for 2024 is the $12MM owed to Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners opened the year at $104MM, per Cot’s, but have been in the $150-160 range in recent years.
As for the Yankees and Dodgers, they’re both running franchise-high payrolls but might still like the idea of Corbin’s contract being involved. Recent reporting has suggested both clubs are leery of decimating their farm systems in order to acquire Soto, despite his talents. Taking on Corbin and reducing the prospect hit should appeal to both clubs.
Of course, all this still seems to be exploratory on the part of the Nationals. Getting rid of Corbin’s money surely has appeal, but they will also have to weigh that against the offers they get that don’t involve Corbin. If one teams offers, say, six good prospects but doesn’t want Corbin, would the Nats really take a less package just to get Corbin out the door? There’s at least some precedent, given that the Red Sox included David Price in the Mookie Betts deal. However, the situations are not entirely analogous, as the Red Sox had gone over the luxury tax in the two previous seasons and were primarily interested in tearing down their roster for the cost savings. For the Nats, they are already operating with a budget well below previous seasons and should theoretically be more concerned with maximizing their prospect return in any Soto deal.
Boras On Juan Soto Extension Offer, Potential Trade, Rumored Nationals Sale
All eyes will be on Juan Soto over the next 13 days. With the annual amateur draft and All-Star Game now in the rearview mirror, what figures to be a frenzied and condensed summer trade market will be up and running. Soto’s recent rejection of a 15-year, $440MM contract extension has already drawn countless headlines, and his reported subsequent availability on the trade market will generate unprecedented intrigue.
Agent Scott Boras addressed Soto’s decision to turn down what would’ve been the largest total guarantee in MLB history this week, first in an interview with James Wagner of the New York Times and then with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast, “The Show.” There were plenty of factors in the decision, but Boras suggested that the average annual value, the potential sale of the franchise and uncertainty about the team’s direction all weighed heavily.
[Related: Looking for a Match in a Juan Soto Trade]
“I don’t think anybody wants to work for someone they don’t know,” Boras told Wagner. “So it’s kind of a ghost contract. We don’t know who’s going to pay it. Consequently, when you’re a player like Juan, you’re a winning player and you want to make sure there’s a lot more things than dollars and cents involved and who you’re going to work for and where you’re going to be for the majority.”
In his appearance with Sherman and Heyman, Boras spoke about the respect Soto has for the Lerner family and the commitment they’ve shown to winning over the years, but the direction of an incoming ownership group can’t be known at this time. Even if a swift return to contention is the goal, the Nationals’ bleak farm system, lack of big league talent on the current roster, and the strong division in which they play all coalesce to make an immediate rebound unlikely. Soto is surely aware of this.
“Juan Soto has a ring on his finger and he has had people that he knows and trusted ever since his inception with the franchise, but now that group of people has said, ‘We’re going to move on and assign this team to another group,'” said Boras, in reference to the Lerner family’s likely sale of the franchise. “…When you’re a player, you can talk about being offered things, but it doesn’t carry with it the intentions [of ownership] and the security of winning — the goals of the player that are beyond economic.”
As one would expect, the potential sale of the Nationals is a complicating factor in both extension and trade talks. It’s understandable if Soto prefers to wait to see what happens with the franchise to get a feel for a new owner’s mentality. Conversely, whether Soto is or isn’t with the team will have an impact on the sale of the team itself. Boras is, unsurprisingly, of the mind that Soto is an asset who’ll enhance the team’s appeal for prospective buyers, as “billionaires certainly like their choices” and will want the option of whether to build around Soto or commit to an early rebuild.
ESPN’s Buster Olney sees things differently, saying on yesterday’s Baseball Tonight podcast that executives around the game believe new owners will want the situation resolved one way or another before taking over. With an extension likely off the table, that would mean completing a trade before the sale of the team goes through. Of course, we don’t yet know who the new owners will be, so that’s a speculative view of the scenario (much like Boras’ belief that the new owners will want the chance to make the choice themselves).
Even in the absence of the current ownership uncertainty, however, Boras seemed to intimate that the Nationals’ offer simply wouldn’t have been sufficient. As we saw with Aaron Judge prior to the season, being paid at an annual rate that’s commensurate with baseball’s top stars appears important to Soto.
“The rarity of Juan Soto, this is from age 19 to 23, so he’s really separated himself to be in a very small group, among Major League history, of performance levels,” said Boras.”[Those players] are going to be at the highest order of average annual values, and yet the proposal placed him well below the top group, in the No. 15 or 20 range.”
All of that lines up to further cement the reality that Soto will at least be available in talks over the coming two weeks, but it’s wholly unclear whether any team will meet what will be a historic asking price. Olney suggested in that previously referenced segment that the Nationals are going to want Major League-ready talent to headline a return and, of note, added that the Yankees and Dodgers are at least somewhat wary of surrendering the type of enormous prospect value Soto will command. The Yankees, of course, also have the future of their own superstar outfielder (Judge) to consider in conjunction with any theoretical Soto scenarios, which only further complicates the equation on their end.
Steven Souza Jr. Announces Retirement
Outfielder Steven Souza Jr. took to Twitter today to announce his retirement from baseball after almost a decade in the big leagues.
“It’s been an incredible journey that I dreamed as a kid I would be able to go on,” wrote Souza, before going on to give a heartfelt thanks to the many people whose lives touched his along the way.
Souza, 33, was a third-round pick of the Nationals out of Cascade High School in 2007 and made his big league debut with the Nats in 2014. After getting into 21 games for Washington down the stretch, Souza went to the Rays in December 2014 as part of a convoluted three-team trade that saw Wil Myers go from Tampa to San Diego and Trea Turner go from the Padres to the Nats.
Souza would spent the next three seasons with the Rays, which will no doubt go down as the best stretch of his career. From 2015 to 2017, he played 378 games, hitting 63 home runs, 53 doubles, four triples, stealing 35 bases and hitting .238/.327/.426.
Incredibly, Souza was part of yet another three-team trade prior to the 2018 season. In this deal, Souza went to the Diamondbacks while Brandon Drury went to the Yankees, among other pieces changing hands. Unfortunately, Souza’s trip to the desert would be a disappointing one, with injuries preventing him from sustaining the production he showed in Tampa. He was limited to 72 games in 2018 due to pectoral issues and hit just .220/.309/.369 when on the field. In March of 2019, Souza sustained a far worse injury, slipping on home plate during a Spring Training game. The club would later announce that Souza tore or damaged multiple ligaments in his knee, which would require season-ending surgery.
After missing the entirety of the 2019 campaign, Arizona non-tendered him, allowing Souza to reach free agency for the first time in his career. He’d go on to see MLB action over the next three seasons with the Cubs, Dodgers and Mariners, respectively, but unable to recapture his previous form. Over those three seasons, he hit .152/.221/.291.
In the end, Souza was able to appear in 505 MLB games and make 1,895 plate appearances. He’ll head into retirement with a lifetime batting line of .229/.318/.411, 72 home runs, 71 doubles, eight triples, 383 total hits, 223 runs scored, 207 runs driven in and 42 stolen bases. He was able to earn more than $10MM over his big league tenure. MLBTR congratulates Souza on a fine career and wishes him the best of luck in his next chapter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Latest On Royals’ Trade Candidates
The Royals are one of the relatively few teams who look like clear-cut sellers heading into the trade deadline, and there has already been buzz about several of their veteran players. Two new teams have joined the mix, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers have shown some interest in Whit Merrifield, while the Brewers are among the teams considering Andrew Benintendi.
Such clubs as the Padres and Mets have already been linked to Benintendi in trade rumors, though his non-vaccinated status has apparently removed such suitors as the Blue Jays and Yankees from his market — Benintendi wouldn’t be able to play in Canada altogether, while the Yankees wouldn’t want Benintendi unavailable for remaining regular-season games or potential postseason games in Toronto.
That is less of an obstacle for NL teams like the Brewers, since if Milwaukee eventually had to worry about Benintendi’s status for a potential World Series matchup against the Jays, that would count as a nice problem to have for a team battling for the NL Central lead. The Brew Crew heads into the All-Star break with a narrow half-game lead over the Cardinals, but the Brewers are only 18-24 since the start of June.
An inconsistent offense has plagued Milwaukee, and Benintendi’s strong bat (127 wRC+) would certainly help in that regard. A regular center fielder would probably be a better fit considering that Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen are already splitting left field duty, but Benintendi could get the bulk of time in left, while Yelich and McCutchen are rested, used at DH, or McCutchen could also play right field.
Merrifield has long been mentioned as a trade chip, yet while the Royals have resisted overtures in the past, they are reportedly now more open to considering a deal. Of course, Merrfield’s trade value has also tumbled, as the 33-year-old is in the midst of the worst of his seven MLB seasons, hitting .240/.292/.343 over his first 373 plate appearances.
With Los Angeles, Merrifield likely wouldn’t be asked to adopt an everyday role, but rather be toggled around the diamond in a utility role. Since Chris Taylor is on the injured list, Merrifield would more or less take Taylor’s role as an option at second base and all three outfield positions. The Dodgers could also primarily use Merrifield against only left-handed pitching, though his splits against all pitchers have been underwhelming over the last two seasons.
Merrifield is also controlled through at least the 2023 season, as his contract (which was reworked back in April) calls for a $6.75MM salary next year, as he has already hit his health-based escalator clause. He is also owed roughly $2.7MM in salary for 2022, and there is a $500K buyout of an $18MM mutual option for 2024. Even though payroll or luxury-tax concerns aren’t a big obstacle for the Dodgers, it is possible that the Royals might be willing to kick in some money to cover Merrifield’s contract, as a reflection of his struggles this year.