Orioles Willing To Entertain Offers On Zach Britton
The Orioles are willing to listen to trade scenarios involving closer Zach Britton, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. While prior signals were that the organization would hold on to the southpaw this winter, it seems there’s now at least some possibility of a swap coming together.
Baltimore engaged in chatter involving Britton last summer and nearly dealt him to the Astros. But talks sputtered at the last minute and he ended up remaining on hand. MLBTR projects that Britton will earn a hefty $12.2MM in arbitration.
As Heyman notes, the O’s could find it advantageous to reallocate that payroll space to a rotation that’s badly in need of attention. Plus, with Britton slated for free agency after the season, this would be an opportune time to cash him in for young talent.
Houston is not presently among the organizations engaged on Britton, per the report. But the Dodgers and Cubs have already engaged in some chatter surrounding the 29-year-old hurler.
It remains unclear just how strong the market will be for Britton. Prior to the 2017 season, he had established himself as one of the game’s most dominant relievers. But the campaign didn’t quite go as hoped, as he fell short of his own lofty standards while dealing with elbow issues.
Britton ended the year with 37 1/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball, posting 7.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 while inducing grounders on more than 70% of the balls put in play against him for the fourth-straight season. While his swinging-strike rate dropped off to 11.5% after topping out at 17.2% in 2016, Britton kept his monster sinker at over 96 mph and was obviously still able to use it to draw quite a few worm-burners.
Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen
In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish‘s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.
If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…
- Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
- The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
- The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
- Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
- Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals‘ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.
Latest On The Braves’ Front Office Search
10:14pm: The Braves are moving on from Moore, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports, as “hope evaporated this weekend” that Moore would be made available by the Royals. In regards to Hart’s future, Bowman notes that since both Anthopoulos and Hendry are experienced general managers, either could take over the Braves’ baseball ops department should Hart no longer continue with the organization. “The Braves likely will make a decision as soon as possible” about their new GM, and Anthopoulos looks like the favorite.
7:39pm: Dayton Moore is still the Braves’ top choice to become the club’s new general manager, though if Atlanta isn’t able to get Moore away from the Royals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is “the preferred Plan B” option. Three sources paint Anthopoulos as the front-runner for the job, given that there still seems to be little traction to the idea of Moore leaving Kansas City for Atlanta.
The situation is far from being finalized, however, due to the Braves holding out hope that Moore could still become available, Major League Baseball’s ongoing investigation into signing violations under former Braves GM John Coppolella, and the status of Braves president of baseball operations John Hart. Sherman reports that Hart prefers Anthopoulos for the GM job, while club vice chairman John Schuerholz is thought to prefer former Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Hart’s own contract with the Braves expired after the 2017 season, and it isn’t yet clear if he will remain atop Atlanta’s baseball ops pyramid or if the team could desire a clean slate with a new name in charge of the front office. (In regards to Moore, he would reportedly want full control over the Braves’ operations if he were to join the organization.)
Anthopoulos, 40, worked as Toronto’s GM for six seasons, building the nucleus that led the Jays to consecutive runs to the ALCS in 2015-16. He somewhat surprisingly left the job after his contract was up after the 2015 season, however, the presence of new Jays president Mark Shapiro meant that Anthopoulos would’ve essentially been demoted to second-in-command on the team’s depth chart of baseball decision-makers.
Anthopoulos has worked as the Dodgers’ VP of baseball operations since January 2016, and turned down offers from the Twins and Diamondbacks last year when the two clubs were in the midst of their own GM searches. Family concerns were reportedly behind Anthopoulos’ decision to bow out of those searches, as he didn’t want to uproot his young children from the west coast so quickly. As Sherman notes, however, the Braves’ job “is viewed as attractive” around baseball due to the team’s deep well of prospects, even despite the likelihood that MLB will level some type of punishment against the franchise.
Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.
The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.
Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals
The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.
Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros
Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.
Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians
Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.
Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians
After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.
Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers
The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.
What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)
Which Of These Top Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
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Alex Verdugo (Dodgers) 34% (4,669)
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None of these prospects has any chance of being traded 25% (3,415)
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Victor Robles (Nationals) 13% (1,724)
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Kyle Tucker (Astros) 12% (1,659)
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Triston McKenzie (Indians) 9% (1,281)
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Francisco Mejia (Indians) 7% (1,023)
Total votes: 13,771
Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro
Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.
A few more early notes on the free agent market…
- Jay Bruce‘s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
- Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
- Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki‘s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/7/17
After a busy transactional day yesterday, let’s catch up on some of the latest minor moves:
- Catcher Bryan Holaday and outfielder Alex Presley have elected free agency from the Tigers, Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports on Twitter. Each of the veterans was outrighted recently, though Woodberry hints that Detroit has interest in bringing both back on minors deals. Holaday will enter the pool of catchers that are looking for opportunities to compete for reserve jobs in camp. The 32-year-old Presley should also draw attention from other organizations; he turned in 264 plate appearances of .314/.354/.416 hitting in 2017.
- The Rockies selected the contract of outfielder Noel Cuevas, per a club announcement. Acquired from the division-rival Dodgers in the trade that sent Juan Nicasio to Los Angeles, Cuevas blossomed at Triple-A Alburquerque in 2017. Across 528 plate appearances, he posted a .312/.353/.487 slash with 15 long balls and 16 steals.
- Two players were also added to the Yankees 40-man roster, the club announced. Outfielder Jake Cave is one of them; the one-time Rule 5 pick won’t be eligible for the draft again this year. He turned in a compelling season in the upper minors, including a robust .324/.367/.554 batting line with 15 long balls in 297 Triple-A plate appearances. Joining him is righty Nick Rumbelow, who returned from Tommy John surgery with aplomb last year. Over 40 1/3 innings, he allowed just five earned runs on 21 hits while racking up a 45:11 K/BB ratio.
- The Indians selected the contract of Eric Haase, per the MLB.com transactions page. The 24-year-old backstop knocked around Double-A pitching to the tune of a .258/.349/.574 batting line and 26 homers through 381 plate appearances.
- Cuban catcher Lorenzo Quintana is joining the Astros for a $200K bonus, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). The 28-year-old is not subject to international signing restrictions. Quintana was long one of the most productive receivers in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, carrying a lifetime .310/.377/.438 batting line, but he last played there in the 2014-15 season.
Outrighted: Twins, Phillies, Rays, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers, Pirates
A variety of teams cleared 40-man space today. Some of the moves are reflected elsewhere on the site, but we’ll round up the others right here:
- The Twins have outrighted catcher Chris Gimenez and left Ryan O’Rourke, as MLB.com’ Rhett Bollinger tweets. Gimenez could have been retained for a projected $1MM arbitration salary, but Minnesota elected not to commit that much cash (and a roster spot) despite Gimenez’s 225 plate appearances of roughly league-average hitting in 2017. He tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer that he’ll likely elect to return to the open market, but would be open to a return (links to Twitter). As for O’Rourke, he was said to be exploring ways of hastening his return from Tommy John surgery, but Minnesota isn’t willing to gamble on the lefty’s recovery at this time.
- Infielder Pedro Florimon and righty Jesen Therrien are now free agents after being outrighted off of the Phillies 40-man, per a club announcement. The 30-year-old Florimon has made his way onto a major league roster in each of the past seven seasons, compiling a .209/.269/.308 slash in 791 plate appearances but providing enough with the glove to keep earning return trips. The 24-year-old Therrien was knocked around in 15 relief appearances for the Phils this year, but did turn in 57 1/3 frames of 1.41 ERA ball (with 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9) during his time in the upper minors.
- The Rays outrighted catcher Curt Casali, outfielder Cesar Puello, and righty Shawn Tolleson, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Casali played a bigger role on the 2016 MLB outfit and posted only a .698 OPS at Triple-A. The 26-year-old Puello has bounced around of late and struggled in a brief go at the bigs, but did manage a productive .327/.377/.526 slash in 379 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors (none of which came with a Tampa Bay affiliate). Tolleson required Tommy John surgery in May, so he’ll likely be looking for an organization to rehab with.
- Departing the Cardinals‘ 40-man were infielder Alex Mejia and catcher Alberto Rosario, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter). Mejia struggled mightily in the bigs as a 26-year-old rookie, but slashed .291/.341/.413 in his 475 plate appearances in the upper minors. As for Rosario, who is thirty years of age, there just hasn’t been much opportunity for time behind the MLB plate.
- Backstop Hector Sanchez and righty Tim Melville took free agency from the Padres after clearing outright waivers, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (Twitter link). Sanchez, a 28-year-old switch-hitter who has seen action in each of the past seven MLB seasons, will surely be targeted as a depth acquisition by other organizations. Melville, who’s also 28, worked to a 2.95 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 76 1/3 Triple-A innings — his best results in the minors — but was bombed in brief MLB time.
- The Dodgers outrighted first baseman/outfielder O’Koyea Dickson, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Dickson, 27, briefly touched the majors in 2017 but spent the bulk of his time at Triple-A for the third-straight season. After putting up big numbers there in 2016, Dickson managed a career-best 24 home runs over 458 plate appearances in his most recent campaign, but slipped to a .328 on-base percentage.
- Finally, the Pirates outrighted lefty Dan Runzler, MLB.com’s Adam Berry reports on Twitter. He’ll head back to free agency after refusing an assignment. Runzler, 32, made it back to the majors after a four-year absence, but only saw four innings in eight appearances. He pitched to a 3.05 ERA in 41 1/3 Triple-A innings, managing only 7.8 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 but also generating typically strong groundball numbers.
Dodgers To Exercise Club Option On Logan Forsythe
The Dodgers will exercise their $8.5MM club option over second baseman/third baseman Logan Forsythe, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Los Angeles had until 5pm ET today to decided between that sum and a $1MM buyout for the 30-year-old Forsythe.
Forsythe didn’t have the season that the Dodgers envisioned when acquiring him from the Rays in exchange for touted pitching prospect Jose De Leon (though De Leon himself missed most of the season due to injury). In 439 plate appearances, Forsythe batted just .239/.351/.327 with six homers and 19 doubles — a far cry from the .273/.347/.444 slash he posted with the 2015-16 Rays. He did, however, hit left-handed pitching at a robust .290/.418/.452 clip in 153 plate appearances and turn in strong defensive work.
Though he was primarily a second baseman with the Rays, Forsythe was used in a larger variety of roles with the Dodgers. In addition to 587 frames at second base (where he graded out at +5 Defensive Runs Saved and a +3.2 Ultimate Zone Rating), Forsythe saw 301 innings at third base (+4 DRS, +3.4 UZR) and also made brief appearances at shortstop, first base and in the outfield corners. At the very least, he can serve as a versatile multi-position asset for the Dodgers in 2018, though his lack of a defined starting role could lead the Dodgers to also explore trades this offseason.
Dodgers Decline Andre Ethier’s Option
The Dodgers have declined outfielder Andre Ethier‘s $17.5MM club option for 2018 in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports (on Twitter).
Moving on from Ethier at that lofty price tag was an easy decision for the Dodgers, who saw the 35-year-old deal with significant injury issues over the past two seasons and combine for a mere 64 plate appearances. In 2017, back problems kept Ethier out until September and prevented him from contributing to the Dodgers’ fifth straight NL West-winning effort, but he was able to partake in his eighth postseason with the club. Ethier totaled 15 playoff plate appearances this season, including six in the Dodgers’ World Series loss to the Astros. In what is likely to go down as his final at-bat with the franchise, Ethier picked up a pinch-hit RBI single in LA’s 5-1 loss in Game 7 of the Fall Classic.
Prior to the past two seasons, Ethier was a consistent offensive presence for the Dodgers. The 2003 second-round pick debuted in 2006 and proceeded to slash an impressive .286/.359/.464 with 159 home runs through the 2015 campaign. The success Ethier had early in his career led the Dodgers to sign him to his most recent deal, a five-year, $85MM extension, in June 2012.
With his Dodgers tenure in the rearview, the lefty-swinging Ethier will head to the open market, though his age, recent health troubles and longstanding woes against same-handed pitchers will work against him in free agency. Still, Ethier was a terrific offensive player as recently as 2015, slashing .294/.366/.486 in 445 PAs, and could garner interest from teams looking for a designated hitter.
Poll: Will The Dodgers Trade Yasmani Grandal?
Yasmani Grandal has been among the best catchers in the majors during his three-year tenure with the Dodgers, but it’s possible he’ll don a different uniform next season. After the Dodgers lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Astros on Wednesday, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reported that the National League champions “may field offers for” Grandal this winter.
While the Dodgers will again be on the shortlist of legitimate championship contenders entering 2018, Grandal’s age-29 season, there’s some logic to the team parting with him before then. He was barely a factor in this year’s playoffs, for one, thanks to the emergence of Austin Barnes as manager Dave Roberts’ preferred option at catcher. The 27-year-old Barnes somewhat quietly turned in an outstanding regular season in his first extensive big league action, though he accrued 220 fewer plate appearances than Grandal along the way (262 to 482). But Barnes logged nearly all of the action at backstop in the postseason, racking up 52 PAs to Grandal’s 11.
Given Barnes’ excellent 2017 production and long-term team control (he’s not even scheduled to reach arbitration until 2020), the Dodgers may regard him as their behind-the-plate solution for the foreseeable future. Grandal, on the other hand, only has a year of control left, in which he’ll earn a projected $7.7MM in arbitration. That shouldn’t be an unpalatable sum for the big-spending Dodgers if they expect Grandal to continue seeing significant playing time next season. If he really has fallen out of favor, though, a trade could be in the offing.
In marketing Grandal, the Dodgers would be shopping a player who, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, has never been worse than an average major league hitter in any of his six seasons of action. The switch-hitting Grandal is coming off a year in which he registered a 102 wRC+, which was both above average for position players and especially for catchers, who posted a mean of 89. As effective as Grandal has been at the plate, there’s a case to be made that he has been even better behind it. Since debuting with the Padres in 2012, Grandal has been an elite pitch framer in each season, per both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner. Grandal also just wrapped up a third straight campaign in which he threw out more would-be base stealers (32 percent) than the typical catcher (27 percent).
It’s clear that 2017 was a solid all-around year for Grandal, though it did see him experience a notable offensive dropoff compared to the previous season. Grandal performed at a personal-best level across 457 PAs in 2016, swatting 27 home runs and hitting .228/.339/.477 – good for a 121 wRC+. He fell to .247/.308/.459 with 22 HRs in 482 trips to the plate this past season, though, thanks in part to career-worst walk (8.3 percent), strikeout (27 percent), chase (31.6 percent) and swinging-strike (11.9 percent) rates. The walk and chase rates were particularly alarming, given the vastly superior numbers he recorded in those departments a year ago (14 percent and 23.3 percent, respectively). And when Grandal did put the bat on the ball in 2017, it made far less impact than in 2016. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Grandal’s average exit velocity tumbled from 91 mph to 87.9 mph, while his barrels per PA plummeted from 7.4 percent to 4.8 percent. As a result, his expected weighted on-base average cratered, going from to .363 to .288.
Any team interested in acquiring Grandal would be aware of the fact that he wasn’t at his best in 2017, yet they still may regard him as a more appealing option than the top impending free agent catchers – Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo (if he opts out of his contract with the Orioles) and Alex Avila – all of whom come with obvious flaws. At the same time, there appears to be a limited number of viable fits for Grandal. Non-contenders aren’t in position to surrender much for a player who will be a free agent in a year, which could leave playoff hopefuls like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Angels and Orioles (unless they’re ready to hand the reins to prospect Chance Sisco) among the most logical potential suitors. But it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers helping the Nats, a fellow NL power, improve their dire situation behind the plate, and the same applies to the division-rival D-backs and Rockies. As American League teams, the Angels and Orioles seem like more realistic possibilities, but their thin farm systems could stand in the way if the Dodgers were to seek youth in return for Grandal.
Should the Dodgers shop Grandal and fail to find an offer to their liking, retaining him wouldn’t exactly be a negative outcome. On paper, he and Barnes would continue to give the Dodgers an enviable backstop tandem in 2018, regardless of which of the two plays more, thereby increasing the team’s odds of winning a sixth straight NL West title.
(Poll link for App users)
Will the Dodgers trade Yasmani Grandal?
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Yes 65% (6,192)
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No 35% (3,372)
Total votes: 9,564
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.