Rangers Designate Taylor Hearn, Select Alex Speas
The Rangers announced Wednesday morning that they’ve designated left-hander Taylor Hearn for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-hander Alex Speas, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Round Rock. Texas optioned lefty John King to Triple-A in order to open a spot for Speas on the active roster.
Now 28 years old, Hearn was acquired in the 2018 deadline deal that sent reliever Keone Kela to the Pirates. The southpaw was a mainstay on the Rangers’ pitching staff from 2021-22, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. While the overall 4.89 ERA he posted in 204 1/3 innings during that time hardly stands out, Hearn has pronounced splits between his work as a starter and a reliever.
In 110 1/3 career innings out of the rotation, Hearn has been rocked for a 6.36 ERA. Like many pitchers, he’s had particularly rough struggled when turning a lineup over for a third time; opponents have batted .343/.438/.567 against him in such situations.
Out of the bullpen, however, Hearn has looked like a different and quite serviceable pitcher. He’s tallied 118 2/3 innings of relief work in the big leagues, logging a 3.94 ERA and fanning exactly one quarter of his opponents. His 11.2% walk rate out of the ‘pen is well north of the league average, but Hearn has demonstrated an ability to miss bats and limit damage while averaging close to 96 mph with his heater in short stints.
He’s worked primarily out of the bullpen in Triple-A this season, posting a 3.66 ERA and a very strong 30.2% strikeout rate. Command has continued to plague Hearn in Round Rock though, evidenced by a 13.2% walk rate plus another four plunked batters in his 39 1/3 innings there.
Hearn is optionable for the remainder of the current season. That, combined with solid career marks in the bullpen, plus velocity on his fastball and a history of missing bats, could certainly lead to trade interest in the southpaw.
The Rangers will have a week to trade Hearn or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s earning $1.5MM this year and has at least two more seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, so it’s feasible but certainly not guaranteed that he’d be claimed.
Taking Hearn’s spot on the roster is the 25-year-old Speas, a potential late-inning powerhouse whose trio of plus or better pitches is at times undercut by a lack of command. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked the flamethrowing righty 14th among Texas farmhands earlier this month, touting his “vicious” slider’s “absurd” movement. He’s throwing that slider or his low-90s cutter a combined 85% of the time in the minors this year, Longenhagen notes, due in part because of his struggles locating a four-seamer that can routinely hit 102 mph.
A second-round pick by the Rangers back in 2016, Speas has a ridiculous 1.00 ERA in 36 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s fanned 40.4% of his opponents against an 11.3% walk rate that represents a career-low. The walk rate would likely be higher if Speas leaned on his heater more regularly, but for now the emphasis on his slider and cutter has proven a recipe for success.
It’s increasingly common for relievers to throw their breaking pitches more than their fastballs, and while Speas is an extreme example of that, his ability to do so with success in the upper minors positions him as a potential late-inning weapon for manager Bruce Bochy.
Rangers To Sign First-Round Pick Wyatt Langford
The Rangers are set to announce the signing of fourth overall draftee Wyatt Langford at a press conference tomorrow, per Jeff Wilson (Twitter link). According to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (on Twitter), the University of Florida product will take home an $8MM bonus.
Despite being a college draftee, Langford gets a signing figure a little above slot value. The fourth pick comes with a bonus allotment of $7.7MM. That reflects Langford’s reputation as a top three talent in the class. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had him first on his pre-draft board. Keith Law of the Athletic ranked him only behind Dylan Crews, while Baseball America and MLB Pipeline put him behind Crews and Paul Skenes.
Langford dipped out of the top three, but he lands a higher bonus than the $7.7MM that’ll go to #3 selection Max Clark. The righty-hitting outfielder is regarded as perhaps the best offensive player in this year’s class. He hit .373/.498/.784 during his final year in Gainesville. Langford connected on 21 homers, walked at a stellar 18.5% clip and kept his strikeouts to a tolerable 14.5% rate.
He’s also an excellent runner and figures to get a crack in center field in pro ball. Evaluators have suggested he might be better suited for left field — where he spent a decent amount of time for the Gators — as a result of fringy defensive instincts. Even if he does end up in a corner, he’s expected to eclipse the higher offensive bar necessary to be a quality everyday player.
Langford figures to immediately jump towards the top of a strong Texas farm system. McDaniel’s pre-draft writeup noted he’ll immediately slot into pro ball as ESPN’s #9 overall prospect. He ranks 11th on Baseball America’s updated Top 100, one spot ahead of Evan Carter for tops in the Rangers’ organization.
AL West Notes: Angels, Leiter, Astros
After a strong start to the 2023 campaign, the Angels have faltered with a 4-14 record over their last 18 games. That slip to fourth place in the AL West has been accompanied by a rash of major injuries to key players like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Gio Urshela. Fortunately for the club, the tides of their injury misfortune may be turning. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger notes that both infielder Brandon Drury and catcher Logan O’Hoppe have progressed to hitting off a tee in their injury rehab processes.
Drury, in a particular, seems poised for a quick return, as Bollinger adds that he hopes to return from injury “in a few days.” O’Hoppe is farther away, considering his initial recovery timeline of four to six months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum back in April. Still, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicates that O’Hoppe’s recovery is going well, as he told reporters that his healing process following the surgery is expected to end next week, allowing him to focus on baseball activities going forward. While no specifics were given regarding O’Hoppe’s timeline for return, his most recent comments seem to leave the possibility of a late-season return on the table, which is excellent news given his status as the Angels’ top prospect entering the 2023 campaign.
More from around the AL West…
- It’s been a frustrating season for the Rangers and 2021 second overall pick Jack Leiter. After his selection in the 2021 draft, Leiter entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. Since then, however, he’s struggled mightily when pitching at the Double-A level, with a 5.54 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work last season that saw him fall off many top 100 lists entering the 2023 campaign. Things haven’t gotten better from there, as Leiter has posted an eerily similar 5.52 ERA in 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) this season. Leiter’s struggles culminated in the club moving him to the development list yesterday, taking him off the Double-A active roster. Per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, the club hopes to work with Leiter on his mechanics in a more controlled environment than minor league starts can provide, and has offered no timetable for Leiter’s return to game action. It’s a deeply disappointing update for Rangers fans, as the 54-39 club would surely benefit from the front-line production Leiter was expected to provide when he was selected with the second overall pick two years ago.
- While the Astros have not been shy about their desire to acquire rotation help ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, Astros GM Dana Brown recently discussed with reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) the club’s back-up plan in the event that the club fails to acquire a surefire starter for the rotation over the next couple of weeks. Brown indicated that the club would consider a second half call-up for right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to help supplement the rotation if reinforcements are still necessary after the deadline. A sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, Arrighetti a 4.21 ERA in 72 2/3 innings of work between the Double- and Triple-A levels this season. While Arrighetti seems unlikely to provide the same impact a rental starter such as Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez could offer, the Astros have managed to find success while relying on unheralded rookies this season, including J.P. France, Ronel Blanco, and Shawn Dubin.
Injury Notes: Edman, Candelario, Gausman, Sborz
Tommy Edman was placed on the Cardinals‘ 10-day injured list on July 7, as the multi-positional regular was suffering from inflammation in right wrist. A clean MRI provided some hope that Edman could be back soon after the All-Star break, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com) that Edman received an injection in his wrist. As a result, Marmol said it will be “several more days” before Edman can return.
Rotating between shortstop, second base, center field, and right field this season, Edman’s versatility and switch-hitting bat have been very helpful to St. Louis, even if his production at the plate has dropped off. Edman had a 108 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances in 2022, but he had only a 91 wRC+ (and a .237/.303/.391 slash line) over 307 PA thus far in 2023. It could be that the move to the outfield is hurting Edman’s hitting, as his offense has badly tailed off since the Cardinals started regularly starting him in center field in late May. With St. Louis looking like probable sellers at the deadline, it remains to be seen how Edman might fit into what could be a remodeled mix around the diamond, though the first order of business for the 28-year-old is just to get healthy. To be clear, there hasn’t been much trade buzz around Edman himself, and his lingering injury would certainly seem like a further obstacle to any sort of deal.
More injury updates from around baseball…
- Jeimer Candelario is a much clearer trade candidate as the deadline approaches, but the Nationals third baseman got an injury scare of his own yesterday when he injured his thumb during a pregame fielding drill. Manager Davey Martinez described the injury as a bone bruise, and Candelario tried to play through the pain but had to leave the game after his first at-bat. Candelario is day to day for now, as Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the infielder was hoping to be ready as soon as tonight’s game with the Cardinals. While there’s no truly good time for an injury, the timing is particularly bad for Candelario and the Nats with the deadline approaching. Even a minimal IL stint will likely impact the club’s chances of maximizing value in a trade, or it could scuttle the chances of a deal altogether.
- Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman was scratched from his scheduled start today due to soreness in his left side, with Chris Bassitt instead taking the hill against the Diamondbacks. Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (Twitter links) and other reporters that Gausman first felt the discomfort after his last start before the All-Star break, but an MRI didn’t reveal any injury. As such, Gausman might be able to return as early as Tuesday when the Blue Jays begin a series with the Padres. It’s no surprise that Toronto is being cautious with their ace, as a healthy Gausman (who leads all MLB pitchers with 4.0 fWAR) is critical to the Jays’ chances of reaching the postseason.
- The Rangers placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis, with a backdated placement date of July 12. Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Sborz has been rocked for nine earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings (four appearances) of work, spoiling what had been a quietly solid season for the righty in the Texas bullpen. In his previous 34 1/3 innings, Sborz had posted a 2.62 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .460 OPS. Texas has already made an early trade for Aroldis Chapman in an attempt to shore up its inconsistent bullpen, and more relief help might be needed by the deadline if Sborz will now miss a significant amount of time.
Ryan Tepera Expected To Opt Out Of Rangers Deal
Veteran reliever Ryan Tepera has exercised an opt-out clause in his minor league contract with the Rangers and is expected to become a free agent, MLBTR has learned. He’d signed there on a minor league pact in mid-June after being released by the Angels.
Signed by the Halos to a two-year, $14MM contract in the 2021-22 offseason, the now-35-year-old Tepera had a solid first year in Anaheim, pitching to a 3.61 ERA with 17 holds, six saves, a 20.3% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 57 1/3 innings. Things went off the rails in year two of the contract, as he was hit hard in 8 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment and released. Tepera yielded seven earned runs on 15 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts during those 10 2/3 innings, and his average fastball had dipped to a career-low 91.8 mph.
It’s been the opposite with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock, however. The veteran righty has rattled off eight scoreless innings, punching out a whopping 37.9% of his opponents against a 10.3% walk rate. He’s picked some of that velocity back up, with his heater now back up to 93 mph — the same level at which it sat from 2020-22, when Tepera tossed 139 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cubs, White Sox and Halos.
It’s at least mildly surprising that the Rangers apparently don’t feel they have a big league spot for Tepera, given that performance and his broader track record. In parts of nine big league seasons, he’s tallied 363 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball, regularly working in leverage roles — particularly in recent seasons. The Rangers recently acquired Aroldis Chapman to shore up the back end of their bullpen and have also brought familiar faces Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush back to the organization on minor league deals, but given this year’s struggles from expected contributors like Joe Barlow, Jonathan Hernandez, Taylor Hearn and John King, there’s still some need for relief pitching in Arlington. Of course, Texas GM Chris Young is very likely still in the market for additional relief pitching.
However things play out in Texas, it appears Tepera won’t be a part of the solution at this time. He’ll hit the market in search of another opportunity. With upwards of half the league in the market for bullpen help, a nice showing in Triple-A and a strong track record, he ought to draw interest from multiple clubs as he looks for a return to the big leagues. The Angels are on the hook for the remainder of Tepera’s $7MM salary for the current season, so any team that signs him would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.
This Date In Transaction History: Rays Acquire Pete Fairbanks
Just under three weeks from the trade deadline, it’s still a little early for clubs to make moves of consequence. July is trade season but the majority of key acquisitions take place in the final week or so.
On this date four years ago, the Rays and Rangers lined up a deal that was more an interesting swap of young players than a pivotal deadline move. It was a one-for-one that sent reliever Pete Fairbanks to Tampa Bay and second base prospect Nick Solak to Arlington.
Fairbanks had some MLB experience, but neither player was an established big leaguer at the time of the trade. The right-hander had pitched in eight games for Texas. He averaged over 97 MPH on his heater but had allowed 10 runs in 8 2/3 frames. Solak hadn’t yet gotten to the majors; he was hitting .266/.353/.485 with 17 homers in Triple-A at the time of the deal.
Despite being the player without MLB experience, Solak was probably the more well-known of the two at the time. He’d been a 2nd-round selection of the Yankees a few years before. Solak was already involved in one notable trade, going to Tampa Bay in the 2018 three-team deal that sent Brandon Drury from Arizona to the Bronx.
Prospect evaluators consistently raised questions about Solak’s defensive acumen at second base. There was less trepidation about his offensive upside, though. He’d been an accomplished minor league hitter and was on the doorstep of the majors. Fairbanks had high-octane stuff but spotty control and had twice undergone Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer, a big reason he was still unestablished by his age-25 campaign.
The initial returns looked promising for Texas. Solak debuted a month later and hit .292/.393/.491 over his first 33 MLB contests. He’d get the Opening Day nod in left field the next season. Fairbanks pitched 13 times for the Rays, allowing 10 runs across 12 1/3 frames.
Beginning in 2020, the deal swung definitively in Tampa Bay’s favor. Fairbanks was excellent in the shortened season, working to a 2.70 ERA while fanning a third of opponents in 27 regular season outings. He pitched nine times during the Rays’ run to the pennant, securing three saves and holds apiece in the playoffs. Fairbanks logged a career-high 42 2/3 innings the next year, working to a 3.59 ERA with 14 holds and a 29.7% strikeout rate.
Solak, on the other hand, never built off that strong debut. He hit .246/.317/.354 in a little more than 800 MLB plate appearances from 2020-22. Concerns about his defense were founded and pushed him more frequently to left field. Texas parted with him at the start of last offseason, trading him to the Reds for cash. Solak has consistently hit well in the upper minors but has bounced around via waivers and small trades since the Rangers moved on. He’s currently in Triple-A with the Tigers.
Fairbanks’ durability concerns have presented themselves over the past two years. He lost the first half of last season to a lat strain. He’s battled Raynaud’s syndrome, a condition that can lead to a cold numbness in the fingers, on a couple occasions. Hip inflammation cost him a few weeks earlier this year.
Still, the Rays have to be pleased with the work they’ve gotten out of Fairbanks. He’s one of their top relievers, owner of a 2.78 ERA in 123 regular season innings since the trade. He has allowed only six runs in 15 postseason frames over three seasons. The Rays signed him to a three-year deal in January, guaranteeing him $12MM to buy out his final three arbitration years and secure a 2026 club option.
No one would argue the Fairbanks trade was as impactful as acquiring the likes of Randy Arozarena or Isaac Paredes. It proved an adept pickup, though. Adding an effective late-inning arm for a young hitter who fell a bit short of expectations has paid off. The front office and coaching staff surely hope Fairbanks will continue to play a key role in postseason runs over the years to come.
Rangers, Matt Bush Agree To Minor League Deal
Less than a year after being traded from Texas to Milwaukee, right-hander Matt Bush is back in the Rangers organization. The 37-year-old Bush, released by the Brewers last week, has signed a minor league deal with the Rangers, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The Full Circle Sports Management client has been assigned to Double-A Frisco for the time being.
Traded from the Rangers to the Brewers in exchange for utilityman Mark Mathias and lefty Antoine Kellylate last July, Bush never quite found his footing in Milwaukee. At the time of the deal, he boasted a 2.95 ERA (2.77 SIERA), 29.8% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate in 36 2/3 innings. Bush’s strikeout rate actually improved a slight bit down the stretch in Milwaukee, but his walk rate crept up two percentage points as well. Most problematically, he became quite susceptible to home runs, yielding six long balls in 23 innings down the stretch.
Bush still posted a serviceable 4.30 ERA in Milwaukee, home run troubles notwithstanding, and his strong strikeout/walk numbers were enough for the team to tender him a contract. The two parties agreed to a $1.85MM salary for the current season, but Bush took a step back in nearly every notable category. After averaging 97.4 mph on his fastball in 2022, the right-hander sat at 94.8 mph in limited work with the Brewers this season. That’s perhaps attributable to tendinitis in his right rotator cuff, which sent him to the injured list for nearly two months, but whatever the reason, the results were grim.
In 12 appearances this year, Bush pitched just 10 1/3 innings while allowing 11 runs on 11 hits and five walks. Five of those 11 knocks were homers, and Bush’s strikeout rate plummeted nearly 10 percentage points (from 30.3% to 20.8%) while his walk rate spiked more than five percentage points (from 7.4% to 12.5%).
The Rangers have been searching for bullpen upgrades for some time — they acquired Aroldis Chapman from the Royals in the only notable trade of deadline season thus far — so it’s not altogether surprising that they’d take what’s basically a free look at a pitcher they know quite well. Bush regularly worked in high-leverage spots with the Rangers from 2016-22, totaling 177 2/3 innings of 3.34 ERA ball with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 46 holds and 12 saves in that time. He won’t be viewed as any kind of definitive solution for the Rangers, who’ll presumably remain in the market for relief upgrades even after acquiring Chapman, but Bush could be a second-half option if he can get back on track in the minors.
Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans
The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.
Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.
Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.
Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.
The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.
Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.
The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.
Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.
Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.
One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.
While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.
Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.
Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.
There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?
The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.
The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.
- Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
- Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
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- Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
- Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
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- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
- Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.
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- Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.
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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)
Who Do You Want To Win The 2023 Derby?
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 33% (2,332)
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Pete Alonso 18% (1,266)
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Julio Rodríguez 13% (936)
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Mookie Betts 8% (528)
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Luis Robert Jr. 7% (512)
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Adley Rutschman 7% (484)
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Randy Arozarena 7% (478)
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Adolis García 6% (437)
Total votes: 6,973
And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who Will Win The 2023 Derby?
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 38% (1,583)
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Pete Alonso 23% (927)
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Julio Rodríguez 12% (474)
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Luis Robert Jr. 7% (301)
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Randy Arozarena 6% (254)
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Adolis García 6% (227)
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Mookie Betts 5% (199)
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Adley Rutschman 4% (148)
Total votes: 4,113
Rangers Interested In Lance Lynn
Losing Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi for the season left the Rangers a bit thin in the rotation, and the club is reportedly looking to fill that void with a familiar face. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Texas has a “strong interest in” right-hander Lance Lynn, who previously pitched in Arlington in 2019-20. It isn’t clear if the Rangers and White Sox are anywhere close in trade talks or if negotiations are still in an early stage this far away from the trade deadline, but Nightengale writes that Chicago has “a high asking price” for the 36-year-old.
The 38-53 White Sox are on the fringes of contention even in the weak AL Central, so barring a major hot streak after the All-Star break, Chicago will certainly be looking to sell at the deadline. As of mid-June, the club was apparently only considering moving players who will be free agents after the season, and Lynn fits that description. This is the final guaranteed season of Lynn’s two-year/$38MM contract, and the Sox hold an $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024.
Lynn is still owed roughly $8.3MM of his $18.5MM salary for 2023, so the White Sox could either absorb most of that remaining figure in order to get a better prospect return from another team, or an interested suitor agree to take on more salary instead of giving up any significant minor leaguers. The Sox might see a Lynn deal as an opportunity simply to get some money off the books in order to reload for 2024, and the Rangers have been such aggressive spenders over the last two offseasons that it stands to reason that they won’t close the checkbook now that the team is leading the AL West.
Between Lynn’s contract situation and Chicago’s struggles, Lynn is a natural trade candidate, and was ranked 13th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade deadline candidates. Lucas Giolito, another White Sox starter heading for free agency, was ranked first, and Giolito’s trade status will surely factor into the Sox front office’s decision on Lynn. With Giolito more of a valuable asset, the White Sox could look to a Giolito deal as their opportunity to add some valuable prospects to the farm system, whereas moving Lynn might be more of an aforementioned salary dump scenario.
Of course, the elephant in the room in any Lynn trade speculation is that in terms of bottom-line statistics, 2023 is the worst season of Lynn’s 12-year MLB career. The right-hander has a 6.03 ERA over 103 innings, and no pitcher in baesball has allowed more earned runs (69) or home runs (22). Lynn’s SIERA is a much more palatable 3.74, as it takes into consideration factors like a .328 BABIP and a low 64.1% strand rate, plus the fact that Lynn’s 27.9% strikeout rate is well above the league average.
Home runs have been the big issue in Lynn’s performance, as his 20% homer rate is almost double his career 10.1% figure from 2011-22. While this is such an unusual outlier that some regression might be inevitable, it isn’t a total fluke, as batters are having much more success at maximizing their hard contact against Lynn’s pitches. His 10.5% barrel rate is by far the highest of his career, as while Lynn’s ability to generate soft contact has been a bit inconsistent, his past barrel rate numbers had been reliably above average.
To this end, Lynn might not necessarily be the Rangers’ top choice for rotation help, even if they think he can improve with a change of scenery. His previous tenure as a Ranger saw Lynn post two of the best seasons of his career, with a cumulative 3.57 ER over 292 1/3 innings in 2019-20, and the right-hander finished within the top six of AL Cy Young Award voting in both years.
Ironically, Lynn was then traded to the White Sox during the 2020-21 in something of the inverse of both teams’ current situation. That offseason, the Rangers were in rebuild mode and the Sox felt they were on the verge of contending after completing a rebuild of their own. Lynn pitched brilliantly in 2021 and helped Chicago win the AL Central, though the White Sox then fell to the Astros in the ALDS.
Texas traded Lynn just a few days after Chris Young was hired as the team’s general manager, even though Jon Daniels was still calling the shots in the Rangers’ front office as the president of baseball operations. With Young now heading into his first deadline in charge of the Rangers’ baseball ops department, he is surely looking to add the final touches to a Texas team that looks like a legitimate contender.
If Lynn can regain his old form, that would go a long way to reinforcing a rotation that has still been quite solid even without deGrom or Odorizzi. Since it doesn’t seem like Lynn’s club option will be exercised no matter which team is on come August 2, the Rangers could view him as a pure rental for the stretch run.