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Drake Baldwin Wins National League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Braves PPI Pick

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Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is the 2025 National League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Cade Horton of the Cubs and Caleb Durbin of the Brewers finished second and third in the voting, respectively. Baldwin’s win will net Atlanta a bonus draft pick after the first round in 2026, via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Horton earns a full year of service time from his top two finish. The full voting results can be found here.

Baldwin came into the year as one of the top prospects in baseball. Since he finished the 2024 season at Triple-A, he had a shot at a big league job to start 2025. However, Atlanta was set to open the season with Sean Murphy as the primary backstop. Rather than be a backup at the major league level, there was an argument for Baldwin to stick at Triple-A and get regular reps.

In early March, Murphy suffered a rib fracture, an injury with a timeline of four to six weeks. That opened the door for Baldwin to get an Opening Day job. He hit well in the spring and Atlanta added him to the roster prior to Opening Day. Though Murphy got healthy by early April, Baldwin had already started producing and he never really stopped. The two shared the catching duties fairly evenly for a few months, though Murphy returned to the injured list in September due to a right hip labral tear.

Baldwin finished the year with 446 plate appearances over 124 games. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .274/.341/.469 for a wRC+ of 125. That means he was 25% better than the league average hitter, though that’s even further above par for a catcher. Most outlets considered his defense to be a bit below average, but not by much. FanGraphs credited him with 3.1 wins above replacement on the year.

While Baldwin’s win is surely gratifying for him personally, it also benefits the team. The current collective bargaining agreement introduced measures to combat service time manipulation. If a team promotes a top prospect early enough for him to earn a full service year, then that player meets certain awards criteria, the team is awarded with an extra pick just after the first round in the next draft. Since Baldwin was a consensus top prospect who was up all year, his Rookie of the Year win gives Atlanta a PPI bonus pick in 2026.

Horton also came into the season as one of the top prospects. He had finished 2024 at Triple-A but with just five appearances at that level. He was sent back to Triple-A to start 2025 but the Cubs needed rotation help fairly early on, as Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga were both on the injured list by early May.

Horton was called up on May 10th. He stayed up with the club the rest of the way, though a rib fracture put him on the injured list late in September. He finished the season with 118 innings pitched, having allowed 2.67 earned runs per nine.

There was probably some luck in there. Horton’s 20.4% strikeout rate was subpar, though his 6.9% walk rate was good and his 42.3% ground ball rate right around average. His .258 batting average on balls in play and 78.3% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. ERA estimators like his 3.58 FIP and 4.26 SIERA feel his ERA should have been around a run higher, though the performance was still good enough for a second-place finish in the voting.

That is significant for Horton, as there’s a flipside to the aforementioned PPI bonuses for teams. If a top prospect is not promoted early enough in the season to get a full service year, he can earn one retroactively with a top-two finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. Horton only earned 142 service days this year, 30 shy of the 172 needed for a full season, but this vote result will get him bumped up to the one-year mark. That means he will be on pace to become a free agent after 2030 instead of 2031.

Durbin was not a top prospect to open the year, meaning PPI wasn’t a factor for him, but he had a good season regardless. Acquired from the Yankees last offseason, he was called up in April and took over the third base job in Milwaukee. He appeared in 136 games and stepped to the plate 506 times. He hit just 11 home runs and didn’t walk much but rarely struck out, leading to a .256/.334/.387 line and 105 wRC+. He also stole 18 bases and was credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and two Outs Above Average at the hot corner.

Several other players also received some recognition from the voters. Isaac Collins of the Brewers finished fourth, followed by Daylen Lile of the Nationals, Agustín Ramírez of the Marlins, Chad Patrick of the Brewers, Jakob Marsee of the Marlins, Jack Dreyer of the Dodgers, Matt Shaw of the Cubs, Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers, Nolan McLean of the Mets and Heriberto Hernández of the Marlins.

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke, Jordan Godfree, Isaiah J. Downing, Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images

Kyle Hendricks To Retire

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Veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks is calling it a career. The longtime Cubs hurler, who spent the 2025 season with the Angels, is retiring, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Hendricks, now 35, will be forever associated with the curse-breaking Cubs but was originally drafted by the Rangers. Texas grabbed him with an eighth-round pick back in 2011. A year later, while in High-A, he was flipped to the Cubs as part of the July 2012 trade which sent Ryan Dempster to Texas.

He continued to climb the minor league ladder and debuted with the Cubs in 2014. He made 13 starts that year, logging 80 1/3 innings, allowing 2.46 earned runs per nine. His velocity was barely above 90 miles per hour but he showed strong command of a five-pitch mix, relying more on disrupting hitters’ timing than missing bats. He would eventually earn the nickname “The Professor” on account of both his cerebral approach to pitching and the fact that he went to Dartmouth College, an Ivy League school.

At that time of his debut, the Cubs were still looking for their first World Series since 1908 and were also rebuilding. Despite a strong debut from Hendricks in 2014, the Cubs finished fifth in the National League Central for a fifth straight year.

But the light at the end of the tunnel was getting brighter. Guys like Hendricks, Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta and Javier Báez were already on the roster. Kris Bryant hadn’t yet debuted but was the top prospect in baseball going into 2015. The Cubs made a big splash to signal a new era by signing Jon Lester to a six-year, $155MM deal.

In 2015, Hendricks got to pitch his first full big league season. He logged 180 innings over 32 starts with a 3.95 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.3% ground ball rate. The Cubs emerged from their rebuild, winning 97 games and nabbing a playoff spot. At that time, the Wild Card round was just a one-game playoff between two clubs. The Cubs got by the Pirates and then beat the Cardinals in the NLDS, felling two division rivals, but were swept out of the NLCS by the Mets.

The Cubs and Hendricks found another gear the following year. Hendricks led the majors in ERA with a 2.13 figure over 190 innings. He finished third in Cy Young voting behind Max Scherzer and Lester. The Cubs won 103 games and finished atop the Central. They beat the Giants in the NLDS and the Dodgers in the NLCS. The latter series was clinched by Hendricks throwing 7 1/3 shutout innings in Game Six. That set up a matchup against Cleveland in the World Series, which would eventually go to seven games. Hendricks got the ball in the final game and went 4 2/3 innings, allowing one earned run. The Cubs would eventually win the game 8-7 in ten innings. Hendricks had a 1.42 ERA over five starts in that postseason.

That ultimately proved to be a peak for the franchise and for Hendricks himself, though the team had a few more winning seasons and Hendricks continued to be a solid piece of the rotation. In March of 2019, he and the Cubs agreed to a four-year, $55.5MM extension. That deal was set to keep him at Wrigley through 2023, though the Cubs would eventually pick up a club option for 2024 as well.

By that time, Hendricks had seen his results slip. As mentioned, he was never a huge velocity or strikeout guy but those attributes had fallen further from par as he aged. That led to him posting a 5.92 ERA in 2024. After that season, he and the Cubs finally parted ways. Early in the 2024-25 offseason, he signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Angels. He grew up in Southern California, so this allowed him to pitch for a team close to his roots for the first time. He made 31 starts for the Halos with a 4.76 ERA.

Overall, Hendricks pitched in 307 games and logged 1,745 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 105 wins and 91 losses. He made 146 quality starts, including six complete games and four shutouts. He struck out 1,373 opponents. Baseball Reference estimates he earned just over $86MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate The Professor on a fine career and wish him the best on whatever comes next.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Justin Turner Plans To Play In 2026

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The 2025 season was a tough one for two-time All-Star Justin Turner, who batted just .219/.288/.314 in 191 plate appearances with the Cubs. Between that rough showing and Turner’s looming 41st birthday later this month, some have wondered whether he’ll continue playing. Agent Greg Genske of Vayner Sports tells Jon Morosi of MLB Network that Turner indeed is intent on playing in what would be his 18th major league season in 2026.

The 2025 season was the first below-average season Turner has had at the plate since establishing himself as a big league regular. He hit .259/.354/.384 between Boston and Seattle in 2024 and was 16% better than average at the plate in both ’23 and ’24, by measure of wRC+. This year’s downturn in production was steep, but it came in a relatively minimal sample and wasn’t accompanied by a glaring uptick in punchouts Turner’s strikeout rate did climb from 17.6% to 19.4%, but his contact rate — specifically his contact rate on balls within the strike zone — was largely unchanged.

Virtually all of Turner’s struggles in 2025 came against right-handed pitching. He tallied 109 plate appearances versus lefties and delivered a solid .276/.330/.429 batting line (112 wRC+). Against right-handed opponents, he was one of the worst hitters in MLB: .141/.232/.155 in 82 plate appearances (a gruesome 16 wRC+). At least some of that is attributable to a .179 BABIP against righties, though his struggles can’t be blamed solely on poor fortune. Turner’s 39.7% ground-ball rate was his highest since 2014, and he posted career-worst marks in pop-up rate, line-drive rate and hard-hit rate.

Based on Turner’s age and last year’s lack of production, anything more than a modest one-year deal seems unreasonable. Turner’s one-year deal with the Cubs paid him a guaranteed $6MM, and he’ll almost certainly need to take a pay cut on that sum. Last year’s struggles will make a club reluctant to offer him regular at-bats, but a team with payroll concerns and a left-handed option at first base/DH could view him as an affordable veteran roll of the dice who brings plenty of clubhouse benefits to the fold. Clubs like the Padres (Gavin Sheets), Rangers (Joc Pederson), Guardians (Kyle Manzardo, C.J. Kayfus) and Royals (Vinnie Pasquantino) all have lefty-hitting first base and/or designated hitter options that struggled against southpaws in 2025.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Cubs Sign Colin Rea To One-Year Extension

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11:05am: The Cubs have officially announced Rea’s contract. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian broke down the contract structure, noting that Rea will earn $5.5MM in 2026 with a $1MM buyout on a $7.5MM club option.

7:24am: The Cubs have hammered out a restructured deal with right-hander Colin Rea, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. It’s a $6.5MM guarantee that includes a club option for the 2027 season and maxes out at $13MM over two years if that option is exercised. Rea is represented by Joe Speed.

Chicago had previously held a $6MM option or a $750K buyout for the upcoming season. The new deal supersedes the buyout, so Rea technically picks up $5.75MM in new money. That’s more than the $5.25MM difference between the option price and the buyout. Rea gets an extra $500K overall, while the Cubs secure an extra year of team control.

The 35-year-old Rea is coming off a solid season. He signed as a swingman and was pressed into the rotation by the middle of April because of the season-ending injury to Justin Steele. Rea was generally good for 5-6 competitive innings each time out. He turned in a 3.95 earned run average while ranking second on the team with 159 1/3 innings. Rea had a pedestrian 19.2% strikeout rate but he rarely issues free passes and did a decent job keeping the ball in the yard.

It’s the third straight season in which Rea has been a capable fifth/sixth starter. He spent the 2023-24 campaigns with the Brewers, combining for a 4.40 ERA with a near-20% strikeout percentage in a little less than 300 innings. Only Freddy Peralta threw more innings for Milwaukee over that two-year stretch. Rea’s flexibility has clearly endeared him to Craig Counsell, who managed him with the Brewers in 2023 and this year with Chicago.

Second-year righty Cade Horton projects as the team’s top starter at the moment. They could get Steele back at some point in the first half. Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Rea are in the mix at the middle to back end. Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown could compete for back-end spots (though the Cubs might commit to Brown as a full-time reliever sooner than later).

It’s clearly a light group for a playoff team. The Cubs figure to take a swing for at least a #2 or high-end #3 arm via trade or free agency. That’s all the more true after they declined their three-year option on Shota Imanaga. While there’s a slim chance Imanaga returns if the Cubs make him a qualifying offer, that decision seems to signal that the Cubs are aiming higher in their rotation targets.

The Cubs opened the ’25 season with a player payroll just under $193MM. RosterResource projects them around $154MM, including arbitration estimates, going into next season. They’re more than $70MM shy of the luxury tax threshold. The Rea extension nearly closes the book on the team’s option decisions. Their only remaining one is a $10MM mutual option for Justin Turner. The Cubs will easily decline their end in favor of a $2MM buyout.

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images.

Justin Turner Becomes Free Agent

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Infielder Justin Turner is headed into free agency after his mutual option with the Cubs was declined, according to an announcement by the Major League Baseball Players Association this morning. It’s not clear who between Turner and the Cubs declined their end of the option, but either way Turner will be paid a $2MM buyout rather than a $10MM salary for 2026.

Turner, 41 later this month, had his first below-average season in over a decade in 2025. The veteran hit just .219/.288/.314 with a wRC+ of 71 in across 80 games and 191 plate appearances. He was largely a bench player for the Cubs this past season, with his primary role in Chicago being to serve as a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Michael Busch at first base.

In that specific role, Turner actually did reasonably well for himself. He slashed .276/.330/.429 (112 wRC+) in 109 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That’s a perfectly solid number, but it’s belied by atrocious numbers against same-handed pitching. Righties limited Turner to a slash line of just .141/.232/.155 with a wRC+ of just 16 in 82 trips to the plate. That’s the worst production against right-handed pitching among hitters with at least 70 trips to the plate against righties this year, and it left Turner with negative WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference this year.

As Turner nears his 41st birthday, he hasn’t indicated one way or another what his plans are for the future. If he looks to continue his playing career, it’s not hard to imagine a team valuing his experience and leadership in the clubhouse enough to give him an invitation to Spring Training and allow him to compete for a bench role despite his rough 2025 campaign. With that being said, a big league guarantee on the level he received last offseason is hard to imagine, and he’d mostly only fit on a roster that struggles badly at the plate against southpaws.

As for the Cubs, they’ll be looking to largely overhaul their bench mix this winter. Turner and Willi Castro are both headed into free agency, while Reese McGuire is a potential non-tender candidate. A platoon partner for Busch may not be quite as necessary as it seemed this time last year after his breakout 2025 season where he posted a 140 wRC+ and even managed to post a 143 wRC+ against southpaws from July 1 onward. That’s a sample of just 52 plate appearances, however, and if the Cubs do want some insurance they could turn to someone like Wilmer Flores, Ty France, or Connor Joe.

MLBTR Podcast: Offseason Preview Megapod: Top Trade Candidates

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images

Cubs Not Expected To Pursue Top Free Agent Relievers

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The Cubs are going to need to overhaul their bullpen this winter after trading Andrew Kittredge to the Orioles yesterday while Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Caleb Thielbar are all ticketed for free agency. Despite those four departures draining their entire high-leverage relief mix outside of Daniel Palencia, however, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that Chicago’s front office is not expected to be involved in the markets of this winter’s top free agent relief arms.

That’s not especially surprising, as the Cubs have generally eschewed high-dollar multi-year deals for relievers over the years. There have been some rare exceptions to that rule, such as the three-year deal the Cubs signed Craig Kimbrel to in 2019 while Theo Epstein was in charge and the team’s pursuit of southpaw Tanner Scott in free agency under Jed Hoyer last offseason, but the Cubs have long preferred to build their bullpen on a budget. That includes last year’s group. Keller was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, Pomeranz was acquired from the Mariners in a minor trade back in April, and Thielbar’s big league deal guaranteed him just $2.75MM total. Those three pitchers posted ERAs of 2.07, 2.17, and 2.64 respectively while combining for 177 1/3 innings across 192 appearances.

Sharma suggests that trying to find value on the margins of the market with minor league deals and reclamation projects figures to be the club’s goal once again this winter, though he does leave the door open for the possibility that the Cubs could jump into the market on a bigger name relief arm if their expected market doesn’t materialize and they linger into January and February. Otherwise, it seems as though the Cubs won’t be adding a top tier closer this winter. Sharma specifically names Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Devin Williams as players who aren’t likely to be in the cards for Chicago at this point.

That doesn’t mean they won’t add any veterans who can offer some more certainty towards the back of the bullpen, of course. Sharma notes that the club brought in Ryan Pressly via trade this past offseason in an effort to provide that sort of certainty. Pressly was on the last year of his deal, and it seems likely that if the Cubs do add a bullpen veteran on a notable deal, it would be a similar one-to-two year arrangement. That could come via either free agency or trade; perhaps the Rays would make Pete Fairbanks available on the trade market ahead of his final year under club control, or the team could try and pursue a one-year deal with a veteran closer like Kenley Jansen.

It’s possible the club could be banking on some internal improvements to their relief corps, as well. Any number of young arms might be able to take a step forward similar to the one Palencia made this past season, and with the Cubs seemingly likely to pursue starting pitching additions this winter, that could make converting a young rotation arm like Ben Brown into relief full-time a viable option. Brown is held back as a starter by a lack of a quality third pitch, but he did strike out 28.6% of his opponents with a 2.97 FIP after moving into a bullpen role to open the month of August. Porter Hodge and Luke Little are among the other arms in the club’s relief corps who have shown flashes of dominance at the big league level but have yet to put it all together consistently.

Orioles Acquire Andrew Kittredge From Cubs

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The Orioles have reunited with Andrew Kittredge, as the team announced that the right-hander has been acquired from the Cubs in exchange for cash considerations.  While not mentioned in the Orioles’ press release, it can be assumed that the O’s will be exercising Kittredge’s $9MM club option for the 2026 season rather than swinging a trade for the reliever just to buy him out for $1MM.

Last January, Kittredge came to Baltimore for the first time when he signed a one-year deal worth $10MM in guaranteed money — a $9MM salary for 2025, and the $1MM in buyout money.  A debridement procedure in his left knee delayed Kittredge’s 2025 debut until late May, but he was in fine form afterwards, and he became an obvious trade candidate when the O’s fell out of contention.  The result was a deal to the Cubs at the trade deadline, with Baltimore netting infield prospect Wilfri De La Cruz in return.

Kittredge’s overall numbers were even better in Chicago after the trade, and he made five appearances for the Cubs in the postseason.  For 2025 as a whole, Kittredge posted a 3.40 ERA and a superb set of advanced metrics.  His 30.8% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate each sat in the 92nd percentile of all pitchers, his 49.2% grounder rate was far above average, and his 41.6% chase rate was the best of any pitcher in baseball.

Today’s trade means that the Orioles have now gotten Kittredge and De La Cruz in their organization, plus they saved roughly $2.8MM in salary when the Cubs took on the remainder of Kittredge’s 2025 salary.  Had everything gone to plan for Baltimore this season, the team surely had an eye towards exercising Kittredge’s club option anyway, so they’ll now get to make that decision after all and address a bullpen need.

Felix Bautista will miss most or all of the 2026 season recovering from shoulder surgery, plus Kittredge was one of several relievers dealt away by the Orioles at the deadline.  Even with Kittredge’s contributions, Baltimore’s bullpen was one of the weakest in the league in 2025, and rebuilding the relief core seems to be one of the club’s top priorities this offseason.

From the Cubs’ perspective, passing the buck (literally and figuratively) on Kittredge’s club option seems like an unusual move.  While Kittredge is entering his age-36 season and Chicago has traditionally been wary about overspending on relief pitching, $9MM seems like a fairly safe investment given how well Kittredge performed in 2025.  The Wrigleyville bullpen was quite solid this year, yet since many names from that group are free agents, exercising Kittredge’s club option would’ve been a way for the Cubs to partially solidify things early in the winter.

Since Shota Imanaga’s three-year club option was also declined by the Cubs earlier today, quite a bit of projected money has now been cleared off the team’s books between Imanaga and Kittredge.  As per RosterResource, Chicago has an estimated 2026 payroll of roughly $148.3MM and a luxury tax number of $164MM — well below their $206.4MM payroll and $227.3MM tax figure from 2025.  While Wrigleyville fans have a right to be concerned over how much ownership is willing to spend, this situation could mean that the Cubs are making room for a bigger-ticket acquisition or two this offseason.

Shota Imanaga Becomes Free Agent

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga has become a free agent, according to a report from Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs declined their three-year, $57MM club option on Imanaga’s services for 2026-28, and Imanaga subsequently declined his $15MM player option for 2026.

It’s an outcome that would’ve seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. Signed out of Japan to a deal that was on paper a four-year, $53MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason that had the aforementioned complex option structure set to kick in after the 2025 campaign, Imanaga was nothing short of sensational for Chicago in his first year as an MLB pitcher last year. In 29 starts, he pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a 25.1% strikeout rate across 173 1/3 innings of work that earned him an All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting last year.

While that strong rookie campaign seemed to portend a long stay near the front of Chicago’s rotation for Imanaga, things started to unravel this year. Early in the season, he managed to get strong results despite shoddy peripherals, with a 2.82 ERA through eight starts despite a 4.59 FIP and a strikeout rate that had plummeted to just 18.8%. His season was abruptly put on hold by a hamstring injury that cost him nearly two months, and when he returned his strikeout rate continued to dip. He did manage to fire off seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts during his first start after the All-Star break, but from there he began a downward spiral where his results started to match his lackluster peripherals.

From July 25 through the end of the season, Imanaga made 12 starts where he surrendered a 5.17 ERA with a 5.42 FIP across 69 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate actually recovered a bit during this stretch, creeping back up to 23.2%, but he allowed an eye-popping 20 home runs in that stretch. Imanaga has always had trouble with the long ball, and even in his excellent 2024 campaign he allowed the tenth-most homers among qualified starters. This year, his 31 homers allowed were the fourth-most in all of baseball despite him pitching just 144 2/3 frames. That’s fewer innings than anyone else in the top 20 besides Tyler Anderson, who allowed 28 homers in 136 1/3 innings of work.

In spite of his lackluster season, a poll of MLBTR readers on September 10 suggested that more than 91% believed the Cubs should exercise his club option. From that point onward, what seemed at the time like a borderline call became more clear as he posted an 8.04 ERA in his final three regular season starts before posting an 8.10 ERA in the postseason and ultimately being passed over for a winner-take-all Game 5 start against the Brewers in the ALDS despite him being on regular rest. By that time, this outcome seemed far more likely. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took a guess at Imanaga’s future in our Offseason Outlook coverage of the Cubs on October 22, and settled on the sides both declining their options and Imanaga heading into free agency.

From the Cubs’ perspective, moving on from Imanaga is understandable for a handful of reasons. By picking up his option, the Cubs would be counting on Imanaga to rebound into at least mid-rotation form for his age-32, -33, and -34 seasons. That might not seem like a bad bet to make, but it’s worth noting that Wrigley Field is notoriously fickle in terms of park factors thanks to the wind. In 2024, when Imanaga was at his best with the Cubs, Wrigley suppressed home runs at the fifth-highest rate in all of baseball according to Statcast. This year, that inverted to make the Friendly Confines the 11th-friendliest ballpark in baseball to home run hitters.

Perhaps Imanaga will be able to return to form elsewhere, particularly if he signs in a park with more consistent homer-suppressing tendencies, but it’s not hard to see why the Cubs wouldn’t want to commit to him long-term given that reality. That doesn’t necessarily rule out the possibility that he’ll return to the Cubs at all; Rogers reports that it’s not yet clear if Chicago intends to extend Imanaga the qualifying offer. Recouping draft pick compensation for Imanaga if he departs would surely be attractive to the Cubs, and him accepting the QO may be preferable to having kept him on a three-year deal at a lower annual cost due to the short-term nature of the arrangement. With that said, the market has plenty of mid-rotation or better starters available this winter, and the Cubs might prefer to not risk Imanaga accepting the offer so they can reallocate those dollars to a starter they feel better fits their roster.

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