Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw will start a rehab assignment on Wednesday. Manager Dave Roberts recently passed the news along to reporters, including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. That will kick off a 30-day rehab window, which will take him the majority of the way to May 17, when he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list.

Kershaw, 37, was once a workhorse but his health has become more of a recurring issue in recent seasons. He hasn’t thrown more than 132 innings in a season since 2019. He only got to 30 frames last year. He started the 2024 season on the injured list recovering from shoulder surgery. He eventually made it back to the mound but his season was finished by surgeries on his toe and knee, to repair a ruptured plantar plate and a torn meniscus.

He was moved to the 60-day IL pretty quickly in 2025 but the timeline is a little bit different for him due to the Dodgers’ schedule. They started their regular season in the middle of March with the Tokyo Series and Kershaw landed on the IL at that time. A player starting the season on the 60-day IL would normally be out until late May but that early start gives Kershaw a chance to come back a bit quicker.

What to expect from Kershaw at this point is anyone’s guess. While he averaged around 95 miles per hour on his fastball at his peak, he’s been down closer to 90 mph in recent seasons. He has still managed to put up some decent numbers despite that, with a 2.46 ERA in 2023. Though he was clearly walking a tightrope and then got pummeled by the Diamondbacks in the playoffs. He had a 4.50 ERA in his limited work last year. With more surgical work on his track record, will that push those trends even further, or could he perhaps turn back the clock a bit with some health?

Whenever Kershaw does return, it’s possible the Dodgers will have to make some tough decisions about their rotation. Currently, they have Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dustin May and Landon Knack in there. Blake Snell recently landed on the IL with some shoulder inflammation but it appears to be a fairly minor issue and he might be back soon. Tony Gonsolin is also on the IL due to back tightness but he is already rehabbing, having thrown 3 1/3 innings in his most recent outing. Then there’s Shohei Ohtani, who is working as the club’s designated hitter but also throwing bullpens on the side as he tries to return to the mound.

As Kershaw, Snell, Gonsolin and Ohtani get back into the mix, the squeeze might be on. Everyone in the group has some kind of health or workload concern, so it would be foolish to expect all of them to be healthy at the same time. Also, Yamamoto and Sasaki are being kept on weekly schedules, as is more common in Japan. That could leave the club some wiggle room to run a six-man rotation, depending on the off-days in the schedule, but someone also might get bumped into a long relief role. Knack, Sasaki and Gonsolin are the only pitchers mentioned here with options, though Gonsolin will hit five years of service time this week, at which point he would have to consent to any optional assignment.

Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images

The Dodgers officially re-signed Clayton Kershaw earlier today but it seems he won’t be helping them early in the season. He tells Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic that he expects to be on the 60-day injured list to start the year, likely returning about when those 60 days are up. That suggests he’s targeting a late May return.

Kershaw’s 2025 timeline has never been clear until now. He announced in early November that he would require some surgical work on his lower left leg. Part of that was due to a bone spur in the big toe on his left foot, which sent him to the IL last year. The surgeries would also address a ruptured plantar plate and a torn meniscus in his knee. It was never expressly laid out when Kershaw expected to return, though there’s now at least a vague target.

Players can be placed on the 60-day IL once pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so several players are already there, including Dodgers like Gavin Stone and River Ryan. Kershaw could follow them there but the 60-day count doesn’t begin until Opening Day. IL transactions can be backdated three days, so teams will only put guys on the 60-day if they don’t expect them to be healthy in the first 57 days of the season.

The Dodgers start the schedule a little bit earlier than most teams, as they and the Cubs are facing off in the Tokyo Series this year. Two regular season games between those teams will take place on March 18th and 19th, while the 28 other teams will play their first regular season game March 27.

The update from Kershaw makes the rotation picture a little less crowded in the short term. As of right now, the Dodgers project to have a six-man starting staff consisting of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. They will start the season with Shohei Ohtani acting as the designated hitter but not pitching. He didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and also required surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in the fall. He is expected to be back on the mound in May and it seems Kershaw’s timeline is similar.

It’s theoretically possible the Dodgers will have too many rotation options at times this summer. Once Kershaw and Ohtani are back in the mix, they could have eight viable candidates for six spots. Sasaki and Gonsolin are the only two who can be optioned to the minors. It seems highly unlikely Sasaki will be sent down at any point, given that he’s already considered an ace-level talent. Gonsolin is also just 20 days away from five years of MLB service time, at which point he would have the right to refuse being optioned.

However, there are also health concerns all throughout the group, so it seems fair to wonder how often six or more of them will be healthy at any given time. May and Gonsolin missed all of 2024 recovering from surgery. Snell only pitched 104 innings last year and has only hit 130 twice in his career. Yamamoto’s first MLB season saw him spend a lot of time on the IL, only getting to 90 innings. Glasnow set a personal best last year by getting to 134. Sasaki never hit 130 innings in any of his seasons in Japan.

It’s an extreme quality-over-quantity group, so it will be interesting to see if it ever feels truly crowded. If significant injuries pile up, the club also has Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius as optionable guys on the roster who should be in the Triple-A rotation.

For Kershaw personally, he will be looking take on a sizable workload for the first time in a while. It used to be his norm to log about 230 innings in a season but he hasn’t done that since 2015 and he hasn’t hit 132 since 2019. He did get to 131 2/3 in 2023 but was clearly working with diminished stuff and required shoulder surgery in the offseason. He returned from that procedure to make seven starts in July and August of last year but then went back on the IL due to the foot issues and finished the year with just 30 innings pitched.

Missing the first few weeks of 2025 will prevent him from having a massive workload this year but he could certainly go well beyond those 30 frames if things go according to plan. As for what’s beyond that, it seems the future Hall-of-Famer isn’t making any decisions yet. He tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he plans to go year to year, as opposed to putting a firm timeline on how many more seasons he plans to play in.

The Dodgers have added Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki to a rotation already expected to return Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Injured righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both in line to be ready for Opening Day as well. That’s six viable rotation arms, before even accounting for younger pitchers who’ve now been pushed into depth roles: Bobby Miller, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack and Ben Casparius among them.

Despite that stock of arms, the organization still seems open to and likely to re-sign lefty Clayton Kershaw. General manager Brandon Gomes said yesterday that the newcomers on the pitching staff haven’t altered the team’s interest in Kershaw (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Kershaw, 37 in March, is recovering surgery to repair a torn meniscus and a second surgery to address bone spurs and a ruptured plantar plate in his foot. He’s working through a throwing program but is not yet pitching off a mound, per Gomes.

In each of the past two offseasons, there’s been at least a bit of intrigue as to where the future Hall of Famer might sign. It was a two-team market in those instances, with Kershaw expected to either remain in L.A. or sign a short-term deal with the Rangers, who play within driving distance of his Texas home. After the Dodgers captured a World Series title last year, however, Kershaw declared himself a “Dodger for life.” He subsequently reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya not long after that he planned to be back with the Dodgers for an 18th season in 2025.

Given that a reunion is something of a fait accompli, it seems there’s no rush to get a contract finalized. Kershaw declined a player option back in November. The two parties are widely expected to work out a new arrangement. From the Dodgers’ vantage point, it’d be beneficial to hold off on formalizing anything until spring training has commenced. They’re already facing a 40-man roster crunch with the looming but not-yet-finalized deals with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates.

The Dodgers need to open one 40-man spot for that pair — they’re currently at 39 players — and re-signing Kershaw now would mean jettisoning a second 40-man player. If he signs after camp opens, though, the Dodgers will be able to accommodate his addition by placing an injured player on the 60-day IL. The Dodgers have a whopping five pitchers who are on the 40-man and recovering from major surgeries. Brusdar Graterol will miss the first half of the season following shoulder surgery. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and could miss the entire 2025 season. Each of River Ryan (Aug. 25), Kyle Hurt (July 30) and Emmet Sheehan (May 16) had Tommy John surgery last year. They’ll all very likely be placed on the 60-day IL at some point.

The aforementioned knee and foot injuries, paired with Kershaw’s rehab from Nov. 2023 shoulder surgery, combined to limit the three-time Cy Young winner to just 30 innings in 2024. He posted a 4.50 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate, showing strong command but uncharacteristically low swing-and-miss abilities. Kershaw’s fastball sat at a career-low 89.9 mph on average last season, and his slider and curveball each saw a dip in velo as well (particularly the latter).

There’s no telling the extent to which he can regain some of the lost velocity, but from 2019-23, Kershaw notched a 2.77 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate over 616 1/3 innings even while averaging just 90.7 mph on his heater. He doesn’t need to get his velocity back up to or even close to its 93-94 mph peak to have success. The Dodgers are in the top tier of luxury penalization yet again, so any dollars allocated to Kershaw will come with a 110% tax.