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MLB Mailbag: Kwan, Bieber, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Braves

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Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.

John asks:

Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?

Robb asks:

Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.

In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.

Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027.  Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.

Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley.  Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians.  The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.

Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.

Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing.  The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year.  C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%.  It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.

What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?

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6 Former Prospects Who Now Look Like Change-Of-Scenery Candidates

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It's easy this time of year to focus on the most obvious trade candidates among the bunch. Players on expiring contracts -- or perhaps with one more year of club control -- who play for rebuilding teams or playoff hopefuls who've fallen short of expectations tend to dominate the conversation. That's understandable. Even the short windows of control over those seasoned veterans can be huge difference-makers with regard to the postseason fortunes of those teams that are still in the race.

On the other side of the coin, fans of those rebuilding clubs or disappointing teams can scour prospect rankings for contending clubs, hoping to get a glimpse of what the future might hold and what their soon-to-be-traded stars and mainstays might net.

Somewhere in between those two extremes, however, there are plenty of players who hold appeal. The reception when one of these players is included in a trade isn't always great among the fanbase. White Sox fans weren't exactly thrilled last year when the main return in the team's trade of Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech was infielder Miguel Vargas, for instance. Vargas wasn't far removed from being a consensus top-100 prospect and was only 24 at the time of the swap, but he no longer carried that shiny "top prospect" label or as much of the allure of the unknown. Instead, he was a young big leaguer who'd struggled to establish himself in three short, partial MLB seasons.

Vargas hasn't exactly broken through to superstardom in 2025 -- far from it -- but he's been a regular at the infield corners in Chicago and provided league-average offense on the whole, including a .246/.325/.458 slash (117 wRC+) over his past 320 plate appearances. He's walked in nearly 10% of those plate appearances, punched out at only a 14.7% clip and increasingly has the look of a solid regular.

Though he'd lost some of the luster from his prospect status, Vargas --who's controlled all the way through 2029 -- could yet wind up being a nice piece for the White Sox.

With that very recent example in mind, and with so much focus on the Eugenio Suarez-es and Spencer Jones-es of the world (i.e. rental veterans and hot-hitting prospects who are the talk of the deadline), it seemed like a worthwhile endeavor to try to pinpoint some once-ballyhooed prospects whose star has dimmed and who perhaps no longer have a clear path to an everyday role in their current organization.

Here's a look at six former top prospects who have exhausted that "prospect" designation but are hitting well in the upper minors without much of a path to playing time on their current club...

JJ Bleday, OF, Athletics (controllable through at least 2028)

Bleday was the No. 4 overall pick out of Vanderbilt by the Marlins back in 2019. Miami traded him to the A's in exchange for lefty A.J. Puk -- a swap of former top-10 picks who hadn't panned out as hoped with their original clubs.

Bleday's first year with the A's in 2023 was a disappointment. He hit .195/.310/.355 while Puk pitched well down in South Florida. It looked like a flop. At least, that was the case until 2024. Bleday was miscast as a center fielder last year -- he should clearly be in a corner -- but was still worth more than two wins above replacement despite terrible defensive grades. He hit .243/.324/.437 with a career-low 19.5% strikeout rate and popped 20 homers in 159 games. Factor in the cavernous confines of his former home at the Coliseum, and Bleday was 20% better than league average at the plate, by measure of wRC+.

This year, Bleday's numbers dipped. He hit .191/.288/.358 in 233 plate appearances in the majors. The A's have optioned him twice. Bleday still walked in 12% of those MLB plate appearances, though his strikeout rate crept back up and he became more prone to infield flies. His overall hard-hit rate increased, however, and he's currently hitting .354/.393/.584 in 122 Triple-A plate appearances.

Unfortunately for Bleday, he increasingly looks like a player without a role on the A's. Lawrence Butler signed a long-term extension in right field. Nick Kurtz's emergence at first base has pushed Tyler Soderstrom to left field. Denzel Clarke hasn't hit in the majors but has been maybe the best defensive player on the planet in his short time in the majors.

It's possible there's still a role for Bleday with the A's -- Butler can play center field, and Clarke can't keep striking out at a 38.4% clip and continue playing regularly -- but a team with playing time to spare in the outfield could try to buy low.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Three days until the deadline. Deals have started up, but the real avalanche is coming. Let's talk about it all!
  • We'll get going at 3pm CT, but feel free to submit questions in advance, as usual.
  • Good afternoon!

Rox

  • Would a Jarren Duran for Mitch Keller 1-for-1 swap work? Or would the Pirates want younger players for the future?

Steve Adams

  • If the Pirates are trading Keller, I'd expect it to be for multiple young big leaguers with 6+ years of club control who are years from making any real money.

Matt

  • Which available player do you believe Dave Dombrowski would look at and say yes trading a Crawford, Miller or Abel would be worth the investment?

Steve Adams

  • Jhoan Duran or Cade Smith

Ryan H

  • With Clase out now, is Ryan Helsley now the best reliever likely to be traded?

Steve Adams

  • I don't think Clase was ever "likely" to be traded. Helsley is likely to go, but David Bednar is just as likely and I think Bednar is better (and he has a lower 2025 salary with an extra year of club control)

Stavid Dearns

  • Going for it here: Luisangel Acuna, Brett Baty, Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Jesus Baez, Boston Baro for Mitch Keller, David Bednar, and Oneil Cruz-Who says no?

Steve Adams

  • With the exception of Baty, that sees like a collection of players whose value is down this season. If you somehow want all of Keller/Bednar/(especially) Cruz, you're going to have to give up WAY more than that. That's a non-starter.

Ken

  • Severino, Urias, and $20M to the Cubs for Jaxon Wiggins. Who says no?

Steve Adams

  • Severino/Urias isn't enough of an upgrade to part with Wiggins

Cat_Herder

  • Paddock trade a depth move or does Fetter spin straw to gold?

Steve Adams

  • Curious to see if the Tigers put him in the 'pen, which I think the Twins should've done even though Paddack prefers to start. He looked filthy in relief coming back from Tommy John late in 2023, and he's never been able to hold up as a starter.

Sam

  • Hey Steve - Are the Twins in fire sale mode now? Are we going back to the early 2010s of just having a completely depleted roster?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
  • Crunched on time today for obvious reasons so I need to keep this right at an hour. Apologies in advance if I don't get to your question. Let's get rolling

Ewitkows

  • Do the Brewers just stand pat?  Ortiz has been better and Durbin has been a spark plug at 3B.

Bob

  • I think the Brewers should offer a package of some of their top prospects for Oneil Cruz because they could get the most out of him. Is that reasonable?

Daniel H

  • Do the Brewers pull the trigger on a 3B/1B power bat, or should I just keep dreaming and have my heart broken again at the deadline.

Anthony Franco

  • I lean towards Milwaukee being pretty quiet. Can't see Pittsburgh trading Cruz in division, and I'd be pretty surprised if they did that at all given how badly they need offense
  • Durbin has solidified third, doubt they're finding a better shortstop than Ortiz on this market. They make sense for O'Hearn or Josh Bell, I guess, but they'll get Rhys back at some point as well
  • Get a better utility infielder than MOnasterio, maybe a rotational outfield bat depending on Frelick's timetable. I don't know that they need to go crazy beyond that. They're already really good and pretty deep everywhere

Hels Bells

  • What do the Cardinals get for Ryan Helsley? Could they pry Bobby Miller from the Dodgers? And who will be the top suitors for him?

Anthony Franco

  • I think they'd do better than Miller on Helsley, though I get the appeal of trying to take a flier on Miller since the velocity is still elite. Helsley's still the top rental reliever for me, though his value is down from when they should've moved him over the winter

Ken

  • On August 1, Jeffrey Springs is playing for whom?

Anthony Franco

  • I'll take the Giants

Duran

  • At first glance, the Red Sox rejection of the Cease/Salas/prospect trade offer for Duran seems like lunacy. A high-strikeout ace and a blue chip prospect for a guy having a down year that they're running out of space for? But looking at Salas, he’s slashed just .221/.305/.347 over his three years in the minors. Why do prospect outlets rank him so highly? And is the league as a whole just more pessimistic on him than the major prospect outlets?

Anthony Franco

  • He was a huge amateur talent and you can kind of write off the poor offensive numbers with how aggressively the Padres moved him. Most 18-year-old catchers are in high school or rookie ball and San Diego had him in High-A (probably too aggressively)
  • The back injury is a real concern though. I agree that if the Red Sox actually thought Salas was one of the top 30 prospects in MLB, they'd be willing to give up Duran for him and Cease

Yanks

  • What’s your view on the McMahon trade? With Suarez on the block, this feels like a major disappointment

Anthony Franco

  • I'm not a huge RyMac fan in general at this point, but only one team can get Suárez and the prospect cost would've been higher than it was on McMahon
  • Argument that he fits the ballpark a little better than Suárez does as a lefty bat. I wouldn't be super enthused about taking his entire contract, but he's better than Peraza/Vivas and he's a more sensible Suárez fallback for them than Ke'Bryan Hayes would have been

Taj Boyale?

  • Does Joe Boyle get the rotation slot vacated by Taj?  If so, will he be on any innings limit or do you think he'll hold that slot for the remainder of the season? Thanks

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9 Under-The-Radar Bullpen Trade Candidates

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There'll be plenty of relievers who change teams between now and July 31. Most will be straightforward -- productive veterans with one or two seasons of remaining club control on non-contenders (e.g. David Bednar, Dennis Santana). With teams like the Dodgers and Phillies motivated to add an impact arm, someone like Jhoan Durán or Emmanuel Clase could go.

Those names have all been kicked around the rumor mill for weeks. Each deadline season also features a few trades of controllable bullpen arms who weren't atop any trade boards. Last summer saw the likes of Tanner Banks, Huascar Brazobán and Nick Mears change hands. The Orioles and Rays already lined up on the Bryan Baker deal before this year's draft.

We'll highlight a few under-the-radar names whom teams could call on in the next week. None of these players made MLBTR's Top 40 trade candidates list, and they've not been mentioned more than in passing (if at all) on our pages this year. Still, clubs always look beyond the most obvious trade candidates in their deadline preparation.

Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Marlins (pre-arbitration, controllable through 2030)

Miami claimed the 25-year-old Henriquez off waivers from the Twins during the offseason. The 5'10" righty was once a notable prospect in the Texas and Minnesota farm systems. He saw a bit of MLB action with the Twins in 2022 and '24 but was mostly in a depth role in Triple-A. Henriquez has stepped into a high-leverage role in Miami, recording 13 holds and the first six saves of his big league career. He carries a flat 3.00 earned run average while striking out more than 32% of opponents across a career-high 48 innings. He's sitting in the 96-97 MPH range on his fastball and missing bats with a mid-80s sweeper.

Henriquez's command can come and go, but he has a live arm and is capable of missing bats in bunches. Going back to the beginning of May, he has a 35% strikeout rate and a solid 7.3% walk percentage with a sub-3.00 ERA in 33 appearances. He is picking up closing experience, and while a contender would probably eye him more as a seventh or eighth inning type, he should draw a lot of interest. Miami has him under club control through the end of the decade, but Henriquez is less than six months removed from being on waivers. They should be open to selling high even if they won't force a deal.

Brock Stewart, RHP, Twins ($870K salary, controllable through 2027)

Stewart was out of MLB for more than three years before he resurfaced with the Twins in 2023. He reeled off 27 2/3 innings of 0.65 ERA ball out of nowhere until elbow surgery cost him almost all of the season's second half. Shoulder issues limited him to 16 games last season. Stewart began this season on the injured list with a hamstring strain.

The 33-year-old righty has been healthy for the past three months, however. He's back in good form, pitching to a 2.59 ERA while fanning more than 31% of opponents. He's limiting walks (7.8%) while averaging 96 MPH on a fastball that headlines a five-pitch mix. Stewart has picked up 13 holds and only blown one lead all year. He's playing for barely above the league minimum and will be cheaply controllable for another two seasons in arbitration. Stewart isn't going to command anywhere near the prospect return that Minnesota would receive if they trade Durán or Griffin Jax. He's an effective setup option in his own right, but the Twins would certainly listen to offers based on his age and injury history.

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MLB Mailbag: Spencer Jones, Mason Miller, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Dodgers

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This week's mailbag covers Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, comps for a Mason Miller trade, and trade deadline situations involving the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Dodgers.

Angel asks:

Do you believe the Yankees now view Spencer Jones as untouchable? His trajectory is so similar to Judge's, but I'd sign right now for 75% of Judge.

Jack asks:

Why does it feel like lots of the Yankees prospects don’t pan out in the MLB? Do you believe it’s because they’re overhyped, poor player development, a mix of both, or something completely else?

Sandy asks:

Volpe made another critical error last night. He seems to wilt under pressure in clutch defensive situations even if his dWar is positive at 0.8. Are the Yankees having second thoughts about their long-term shortstop? Should they? His bat has never been up to league average. Thanks!

Charles asks:

What would it take for the Yanks to get Bednar, Keller, and IKF in a package from the Pirates? It seems that if they are going to be contenders they need something like that.

Jones  is an interesting and polarizing prospect.  His stock seemed to drop in 2024, as he spent the season at Double-A and posted a 127 wRC+ with a whopping 36.8% strikeout rate.

In another 208 PA at the level this year, Jones still struck out 33.7% of the time, but posted a massive 186 wRC+ to earn a Triple-A promotion.  That came on June 27th.  He has since annihilated Triple-A pitching with a 205 wRC+, which includes 10 home runs in 79 PA.  His strikeout rate for the RailRiders is down to 26.6%.

The sample size makes this tricky.  Jones tinkers with his swing a lot, but 79 PA isn't enough to say that he's truly cut the strikeouts.  If he'd struck out five additional times in Triple-A - one additional time every three games -  his K% would be 32.9.

The error bars on Jones are wide, but the odds are currently stacked against him becoming a star.  Jones' Double-A sample is still bigger than his Triple-A one.  Let's see if we can find some comps who struck out at least 30% of the time at Double-A at age 24 or younger while posting a 130 wRC+ or better.

Gallo and Moncada at least had a few star-caliber seasons in the Majors between them.  Otherwise, these guys did not become stars or even MLB regulars.  They also did not cut their strikeout rates and dominate Triple-A pitching, so if Jones keeps that up he'll be charting a new trajectory.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Sorry to not get the queue up for advance questions a bit sooner. I'll get going at 3pm, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you prefer.
  • Greetings! Let's get underway

Dodger Fan 1750

  • Do you see a big trade splash happening soon with the Dodgers? Do you think Mason or Clause is possible for CP? If not pitching, what other trade do you see happening?

Steve Adams

  • Everything deadline-wise, for every team, has to happen "soon" -- we're ten days out!But yeah, I think the Dodgers are going to add a reliever of note. I don't think Miller moves. Clase, I can see, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. If the Dodgers come away with Bednar or Helsley, that's still a notable upgrade. And I think both guys end up changing hands.

Coach

  • Sandy Leon called up to ATL. Smoke = trade fire?

Steve Adams

  • Leon just kind of reinforces the idea that Ozuna's not going to play a ton. His promotion in and of itself isn't a meaningful development so much as just one more piece of evidence to support what already felt inevitable: Ozuna will be traded.

Crusty Old Os Fan

  • If a player has an option, and exercises it, is his current team allowed to submit a QO in order to recoup a draft pick?

Steve Adams

  • I assume this is supposed to say "opt-out" and not "option"? Yes, a team can make a qualifying offer to a player if he triggers an opt-out in his contract and becomes a free agent
  • Well -- as long as he hasn't received a QO in the past and spent the entire season on that club's major league roster/injured list.

Unqualified Reds Armchair GM

  • Reds started Marte in right field yesterday. He seemed to handle it fine. Do they go bring back Eugenio to man 3b?

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are running out of time.  After starting the second half by losing two of three games to the Marlins, Kansas City is now 48-52, and 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card position.  While the club's recent transactions indicate that they're not ready to wave the white flag just yet, it may be more likely that the Royals ultimately end up hedging by both buying and selling prior to the July 31st deadline.

Record: 48-52 (8.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Hitting of any kind, outfield help, designated hitter, left-handed relief pitching

We know the Royals are still in buy mode because, well, they just bought someone.  The club brought Adam Frazier (a member of Kansas City's 2024 team) back into the fold in an All-Star break trade that sent minor league infielder Cam Devanney to the Pirates.  While Frazier only has an 85 wRC+ in 264 plate appearances this season, most of his struggles came in the first seven weeks.  He has hit .306/.363/.405 over his last 125 plate appearances.  Frazier hasn't been a consistent offensive force since the first half of the 2021 season, but as a left-handed hitter who can play second base and both corner outfield slots, he checks several boxes for a K.C. team needing help in all those categories.

If Frazier isn't the most eye-popping addition on paper, he should still boost an outfield mix that has nowhere to go but up.  Kansas City has far and away the least productive outfield in baseball, combining for -3.1 bWAR this season.  By comparison, the Rockies' outfielders are second-worst on the list with -1.8 bWAR.  The Royals have already tried an in-season overhaul by releasing Hunter Renfroe, optioning MJ Melendez to Triple-A, and calling up top prospect Jac Caglianone less than a year after he was selected sixth overall in the 2024 draft.  As much as the Royals have tried to shuffle the deck, nothing has worked.  Kyle Isbel's strong center field glove is basically the only positive from the group.

Before landing Frazier, the Royals reportedly had talks with the Pirates about a more high-profile outfielder in Bryan Reynolds.  That kind of big trade piece would help K.C. both now and in the future, as Reynolds is under contract through at least the 2030 season, though at the significant price of roughly $80MM remaining on his deal.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are one of several "bubble" teams around the league who likely don't know yet whether they'll buy, sell, or do some combination of both prior to the July 31 trade deadline. It's been a season of peaks and valleys for a Twins club that started 4-11 before rallying with a 13-game winning streak and then floundering through a 9-18 June not long after losing their ace for upwards of three months.

Minnesota is a fascinating team to watch, as the Twins would have some very interesting rentals if they opt to sell but also have a deep and talented farm system if they decide to push for contention. They're four games out of a Wild Card spot and open the second half with series against the Rockies, Dodgers and Nationals. All of the uncertainty with regard to the deadline comes against a backdrop of an ownership group that has cut payroll over the past 24 months as they explore a potential sale of the team.

Record: 47-49 (Playoff probability 23.6%, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries available here.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching, backup catcher, another bat, another reliever

Through early June, the Twins ranked among the game's best pitching staffs. Minnesota pitchers led the majors in walk rate, K-BB%, fWAR and SIERA while ranking top-five in strikeout rate, ERA and FIP. Top starter Pablo Lopez went down with a strained teres major muscle on June 3, and the pitching staff quickly began to unravel. Prospect Zebby Matthews hit the injured list just days after Lopez, though he's expected back shortly after the All-Star Break. Steady veteran Bailey Ober ran into catastrophic home run troubles while trying to pitch through a hip injury before finally landing on the injured list. Several short starts from the rotation snowballed and took a toll on the bullpen.

Joe Ryan is leading the Twins' staff in the absence of Lopez and Ober. Prospect David Festa has had a pair of awful starts (eight runs apiece) and seven decent ones otherwise. Fifth starter Chris Paddack has struggled. Simeon Woods Richardson was optioned after a poor stretch earlier this season but has provided a much-needed quality stretch over his past six starts: 30 2/3 innings, 1.47 ERA. He's down to a 3.95 ERA on the season (albeit with a 4.40 FIP and 4.65 SIERA).

The Twins could still use some more stability in the rotation. Paddack hasn't performed well and is a free agent at season's end. Festa and Matthews were top-100 prospects before debuting but have been inconsistent. Lopez and Ober are injured. Even Ryan, the current staff leader, missed the final two months of the 2024 season due to injury. Minnesota isn't likely to acquire anyone with a particularly lofty salary -- not amid a potential sale of the team and on the heels of an offseason punctuated by payroll limitations -- but there are still options to consider.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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