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Latest On Alex Bregman’s Market

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While the relief market has moved quickly, there hasn’t been a ton of activity on the position player front. Kyle Schwarber’s return to Philadelphia on a five-year contract might open things up. Teams like the Orioles, Red Sox and Pirates were in on Schwarber amidst their pursuit of various free agent hitters.

Alex Bregman is unlikely to be a fit for Baltimore or Pittsburgh, but he’s certainly on the radar for Boston. Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe wrote this evening that the Red Sox are making Bregman a priority. The Sox enjoyed an excellent season from the three-time All-Star, who hit .273/.360/.462 with 18 homers across 495 trips to the plate. He’s also highly regarded as a clubhouse leader and could slot back in at third base, allowing the Sox to use Marcelo Mayer at second base.

[Related: The Best Fits For Alex Bregman]

Boston has been loosely linked to a number of marquee middle infielders as well. They’ve checked in on Ketel Marte and Brendan Donovan. A report tonight from Tim Healey of The Boston Globe suggested they’ve at least gauged the Rangers’ interest in moving Corey Seager, though WEEI’s Rob Bradford suggested those conversations haven’t gone anywhere. The Sox have had conversations with top free agent infielder Bo Bichette, but Julian McWilliams of CBS Sports downplayed that fit tonight as well. That all aligns with the idea that the Sox are more focused on Bregman or a pure power bat at first base (e.g. Pete Alonso).

In addition to Boston, Bregman has been tied to the Tigers and Cubs this winter. Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press wrote on Monday afternoon that Detroit’s interest had been fairly muted to this point compared to last offseason, when they are believed to have put forth the highest offer. The Tigers made a six-year proposal narrowly above $170MM a year ago. Bregman opted for a three-year deal with the Sox that allowed him to opt out and return to the market this winter.

Chicago reportedly made a four-year proposal in the $115MM range last offseason. They’re back in the market and met with Bregman via Zoom a few weeks ago, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. However, the Cubs’ interest is complicated by the presence of second-year third baseman Matt Shaw. After a slow start to his career, Shaw had a nice second half that tapped into some of the ability that made him a top prospect. The Cubs have Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson up the middle, so adding Bregman would make for a cluttered infield.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke generally about reports that have tied the Cubs to external third basemen. “I’ve been surprised by the number of media reports that link us to different guys. There is zero lack of confidence in Matt. I would say the opposite,” Hoyer said on Monday (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). He didn’t refute interest in Bregman specifically, nor are executives allowed to do so under the CBA for any free agent. The Cubs aren’t closing the door on adding a high-end bat to replace Kyle Tucker, but they appear more focused on pitching.

Theoretically, the Cubs could sign Bregman and use Shaw as a trade chip for a mid-rotation starter. That doesn’t seem to be a strong consideration. “When a team calls a player ‘untouchable,’ it’s because his value is so high that it’s just unrealistic to think that anyone else would come over the top and give you something that’s even more than that value. That’s where Matt Shaw comes into play for us,” general manager Carter Hawkins told Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “Is he untouchable? No.  No one’s untouchable, but the odds of somebody coming in and giving us an offer that would make us want to move him is really, really low.”

If the Tigers and Cubs stay on the periphery of the market, that could open an opportunity for a dark horse suitor. The Angels and Mets are speculative possibilities. Meanwhile, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic wrote that the Blue Jays could keep an eye on Bregman as a fallback if they don’t come away with one of Tucker or Bichette. The Jays don’t need a third baseman, but both Addison Barger (corner outfield) and Ernie Clement (second base) could play other positions. Toronto’s general willingness to cast a wide net makes them a viable dark horse, though it’d be a surprise if they seriously jumped in on Bregman while Bichette and Tucker are still unsigned.

D-backs Rumors: Marte, Johnson, Front Office

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Even as general manager Mike Hazen continues to downplay the possibility of a trade, Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte is one of the most talked-about players around baseball’s Winter Meetings at the moment. Hazen has called a trade unlikely, stating that despite far more public chatter this offseason, the amount of interest he’s receiving in Marte is in line with the robust interest he’s received in past offseasons. Like most front office leaders around the sport, Hazen has said that it’s his job to at least hear out inquiring teams on virtually any player, Marte included.

Arizona’s asking price has been reported to be anywhere from high to exorbitant. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds more detail, reporting that one club who inquired with the Diamondbacks came away with the belief that it’d take an “established, well-regarded” starting pitcher and multiple additional pieces of value — presumably, controllable young big leaguers or nearly MLB-ready prospects.

While Marte has been connected to a litany of teams thus far, not all are in serious pursuit. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that while the Blue Jays have checked in, their interest is more a case of due diligence than one of aggressively trying to make a deal happen. The starting point of an established young rotation piece would be hard for the Jays to include in their offer, Nicholson-Smith notes, and Trey Yesavage is really the only player on the roster who fits that role (and that would very likely be an understandable breaking point for the Jays). Similarly, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe suggests that while the Red Sox have looked into the possibility, Boston hasn’t been all that aggressive when discussing Marte with the D-backs.

Marte, 32, is owed $102.5MM over the next six seasons, though the sixth year on his contract is a player option valued at $11.5MM. That’s a hefty commitment but also less than he’d receive in free agency right now, coming off a .283/.368/.519 showing over the past three seasons (.283/.376/.517 in 2025). Moving Marte would, in theory, net the Diamondbacks an immediate rotation piece, multiple young players and $15MM in immediate payroll flexibility that could be used to help fortify the bullpen and/or infield corners (or, perhaps, to add even more rotation depth).

That said, the team is pursing those goals even while listening on its star infielder. Moving Marte, or shedding salary in general, isn’t any sort of prerequisite for the Diamondbacks to further round out the roster. RosterResource currently projects them for a $151MM payroll following yesterday’s $7.5MM deal with starting pitcher Michael Soroka. Owner Ken Kendrick has said payroll will decrease this season, but no firm number has been given. The D-backs are more than $35MM shy of last season’s Opening Day mark. There’s room to spend even if the budget will scale back.

The Soroka deal speaks to that, as do some of the team’s other pursuits. Arizona and right-hander Merrill Kelly reportedly have mutual interest in a reunion. The Snakes are reported to have interest in closer Pete Fairbanks. Just this morning, Piecoro reported that former Braves reliever Pierce Johnson is also of interest to the Diamondbacks.

Johnson, 35 in May, has spent the past two-plus seasons in Atlanta after going from the Rockies to the Braves at the 2023 trade deadline. He turned things around amid a brutal ’23 season following that swap, pitching to a 0.76 ERA down the stretch for his new club and earning himself a two-year, $14.25MM extension. Overall, Johnson totaled 139 innings and logged a tidy 2.91 earned run average during his time calling Truist Park home.

The Braves somewhat surprisingly declined a 2026 club option on Johnson, valued at $7MM, in favor of a $250K buyout. Given Johnson’s results in Atlanta and the modest (net) price tag of $6.75MM, there was a strong case to pick the option up.

Perhaps Atlanta was concerned about Johnson’s poor finish to the season. Nearly half the runs he allowed on the year came over the final month of play. From Aug. 25 onward, Johnson was rocked for nine runs on 19 hits and three walks. Four of those 19 knocks left the yard. His strikeout rate dropped nearly three percentage points, and his average fastball dipped by about 0.4 mph.

That could set the stage for Johnson to sign a one-year deal — or perhaps a two-year pact at a lighter AAV than the $7MM turned down by Atlanta. That sort of price point would work nicely for a D-backs club that’s trying to add multiple starters and multiple relievers in relatively affordable fashion. One move that won’t garner as many headlines but could still yield notable dividends to the team’s pitching hopes happened on the front office side of things earlier today, however.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported this morning that Jeremy Bleich, the Pirates’ director of pitching development, is leaving the organization to join the Diamondbacks as an assistant general manager.

Bleich, 38, is a Stanford product whom the Yankees selected with the 44th overall pick back in 2008. He made one big league appearance on the mound with the 2018 Athletics but ended his playing career after the 2019 season. Bleich has been with the Pirates since 2020 and has played a role in helping to cultivate the organization’s enviable pipeline of young pitching talent. Paul Skenes was likely to develop into an ace wherever he landed, but the Bucs have had a high conversion rate on second- and third-round picks like Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler and Hunter Barco, among others, and have seen lower picks (e.g. 11th-rounder Mike Burrows) develop into quality big league contributors. The Diamondbacks, conversely, have struggled to finish the development of their top pitching prospects in recent seasons.

Diamondbacks prospects who’ve ranked among the top of their system but have yet to pan out in the majors in recent years include Brandon Pfaadt, Bryce Jarvis, Blake Walston, Corbin Martin and Drey Jameson, to name a few. Since 2019, Ryne Nelson is the only pitcher the D-backs have drafted and received even three total WAR from in the majors. Bleich obviously can’t be solely credited with the Pirates’ success in pitcher development, but it’s not at all surprising to see the Snakes pry a prominent name in pitching development away from a rival club as they look to improve their fortunes moving forward.

Blue Jays Interested In Robert Suarez

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The Blue Jays are known to be looking for bullpen upgrades and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that free agent Robert Suarez is a guy they have shown some interest in, though Nicholson-Smith suggests the interest may be preliminary. Suarez has also been connected to the Mets and Dodgers this offseason.

The relief market has been the fastest-moving segment of free agency so far in this offseason. Devin Williams, Emilio Pagán, Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton, Raisel Iglesias and others have already come off the board. There are still some notable names still out there, including Suarez, Edwin Díaz and Pete Fairbanks.

The Blue Jays have been one of the most active teams so far this winter, having added Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to their rotation via notable free agent deals. They have also been on the hunt for notable bullpen upgrades. Jeff Hoffman was the closer in 2025 but he posted a 4.37 earned run average and is apparently willing to be bumped into a setup role. The Jays were previously connected to the now-signed Helsley, Maton and Iglesias, in addition to being linked to Díaz and Fairbanks.

Suarez would also be a logical target for Toronto. He has been San Diego’s closer for the past two years. In 2024, he notched 36 saves while posting a 2.77 ERA. His 22.9% strikeout rate was only around average but he showed good control with a 6.2% walk rate. In 2025, he took his game to another level. His 2.97 ERA was technically a slight increase over the previous season but his walk rate dropped to 5.9% and his strikeout rate spiked up to 27.9% as he saved 40 contests for the Padres.

Despite the strong results, Suarez will have his earning power limited by his age. He has only been in the big leagues for four years but that’s because he broke out in Japan before coming over to join the Padres for the 2022 season. He’s now 34 years old and will turn 35 in March.

MLBTR predicted Suarez for a three-year, $48MM deal at the beginning of the season. Even getting to three years would require Suarez to break recent precedent. The last time a reliever got a three-year deal beginning at age-35 or later was Will Harris. His $24MM guarantee was half of what MLBTR predicted for Suarez. Mariano Rivera’s deal in 2007 was the last time a pitcher this age or older got three years with an average annual value more than $8MM.

Time will tell what kind of deal Suarez can earn and if the Jays are strongly involved. Though they have been connected to various relief targets, Toronto’s splashes thus far have been on the rotation side. Next up could be the lineup, as they have been frequently connected to both Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, the top free agent position players available.

Nicholson-Smith also suggests the Jays might still be looking for more rotation depth, but on a lesser scale than their previous moves. At present, the Jays have an on-paper rotation consisting of Cease, Ponce, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos. They also have guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis in the mix. Now that Yariel Rodríguez has been outrighted off the 40-man, it’s possible that he could get stretched out in the minors, since he was a starter in 2024.

That’s a lot of depth already but injuries are inevitable and the cliché about never having enough pitching exists for good reasons. It’s also possible that the Toronto rotation picture changes over the winter. There have been trade rumors around Berríos since the Cease and Ponce signings. Moving him would subtract from the depth but could perhaps free up some payroll space to for other pursuits.

A similar path could be taken with Rodríguez, though his remaining guarantee is far less than that of Berríos. Rodríguez is guaranteed $17MM over the next three seasons whereas Berríos is still owed $66MM over the same time period, with an opt-out after 2026. Moving Berríos would therefore open more spending capacity for the Jays but the Rodríguez deal may be easier to move.

RosterResource projects the Jays to spend $268MM on next year’s squad. That’s already above the $258MM figure they had at the end of 2025. It’s unclear how much more room they have but it seems their deep postseason run this year will lead to a bit of extra spending.

Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Outright Yariel Rodriguez

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The Blue Jays are outrighting Yariel Rodriguez off their 40-man roster, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi.  Reporter Francys Romero had the news earlier this afternoon that Rodriguez was being designated for assignment, though the Sportsnet item clarifies that Rodriguez wasn’t DFA’ed, but has already cleared outright waivers.

It isn’t yet known if this is tied to any upcoming roster move.  A 40-man roster spot wasn’t immediately needed for the Jays, as the club has only 38 players on their current 40-man.  Cody Ponce’s three-year contract has yet to be officially announced, but once that deal is complete, the Jays will now still retain two vacancies on their 40-man with Rodriguez now apparently on his way out.

It’s a somewhat surprising move on paper, as Rodriguez had a 3.08 ERA over 73 innings out of Toronto’s bullpen in 2025, and he received some high-leverage work in a set-up role in the earlier part of the year.  He was also included on the Blue Jays’ rosters for both the ALDS and ALCS, and he was charged with three earned runs over 2 2/3 innings of work before being left off the World Series roster.

The 3.08 ERA was seemingly a positive step forward from the 4.47 ERA that Rodriguez posted over 86 2/3 innings as a starting pitcher in 2024 (his first season in the majors), though a look under the hood reveals some pretty similar peripherals.  Rodriguez’s 22.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate in 2025 were both a tick backwards from his 2024 statistics.  After posting a 4.46 SIERA that almost matched his ERA, there was a much larger gap between the righty’s 3.08 ERA and 4.27 SIERA in 2025, as Rodriguez was aided by a .228 BABIP and an 81.2% strand rate this past season.

Two seasons of middling strikeout rates and hefty walk totals left the Blue Jays ready to move on from the right-hander, less than two years after Rodriguez signed a five-year, $32MM free agent contract.  $17MM remains on that contract, in the form of a $5MM salary in 2026, $6MM in 2027, and then a $6MM player option for 2028 or (if Rodriguez does opt out), a $10MM club option that the Jays can exercise to retain him for the 2028 campaign.

Unsurprisingly, no team was willing to claim away this remaining contract on waivers, and thus Rodriguez has now been outrighted off the 40-man.  He is still in the Toronto organization, as Rodriguez doesn’t have the necessary service time or a past outright on his resume that he would need to give himself the ability to decline the outright assignment in favor of free agency.  This means that the Blue Jays could still select Rodriguez’s contract back to the 40-man at any point, whether in the offseason or during the 2026 campaign.

However, the outright clearly puts Rodriguez in line as something of a secondary option within Toronto’s bullpen plans, and likely makes him a trade candidate for the remainder of the winter.  While no team was going to eat all of that $17MM deal, the Jays could explore (or continue exploring, as they’ve surely checked around about trade possibilities) moving Rodriguez as part of a swap of unwelcome contracts, or the Jays could eat a significant chunk of the $17MM to help accommodate a trade.

It has already been a busy offseason for the Blue Jays, who have signed Ponce and Dylan Cease to multi-year contracts, and Shane Bieber is also staying in the rotation after declining to opt out of the final year of his deal.  This puts the Jays in line for approximately a $267.9MM payroll and a $282.5MM luxury tax number (projections courtesy of RosterResource), and this is before Toronto addresses its lineup or bullpen needs heading into the 2026 campaign.

The four largest payrolls in Blue Jays history have come in each of the last four seasons, as ownership has been willing to foot increasingly large bills on the both the salary and tax fronts.  The Blue Jays paid the luxury tax in both 2023 and 2025, and their current 2026 projection already has them just shy of the $284MM tax threshold and the third penalty tier.

Given how the Jays have already signed Cease and have been linked to many other big names this offseason (i.e. Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, and old friend Bo Bichette), clearly more spending is still to come.  That said, only the front office knows exactly what the budget actually is, and trimming some excess salary like Rodriguez could free up some extra dollars that could be put towards some higher-ceiling talent.  The fact that Toronto has two open 40-man roster spots heading into the Winter Meetings is perhaps a hint that the Jays might be anticipating another new acquisition sooner rather than later.

Blue Jays Interested In Kazuma Okamoto

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Kazuma Okamoto’s posting window closes in four weeks’ time, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the six-time NPB All-Star is getting “big interest” from Major League teams.  The Pirates and Red Sox have already been linked to Okamoto’s market, and Heyman reports that the Blue Jays are also showing interest.

Okamoto was mostly a third baseman during his time with the Yomiuri Giants, but he also logged a good deal of time as a first baseman and corner outfielder.  While he wouldn’t get much time at first base in Toronto due to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s presence, Okamoto’s defensive utility undoubtedly has some appeal to a Blue Jays team that likes to mix and match around its lineup.  Third base would probably be Okamoto’s primary position in Toronto, yet his ability to also work in the corner outfield could make him something of a right-handed hitting version of Addison Barger, who is expected to continue operating as a third baseman/right fielder depending on what other winter moves the Jays end up completing.

Bo Bichette naturally looms as the biggest question mark hanging over the Blue Jays’ infield, as Toronto remains engaged with the former All-Star about a reunion.  If Bichette re-signs, it might make the infield a little too crowded for Okamoto as well, since that would have the ripple effect of pushing Barger into more or less everyday outfield duty, and leave little playing time for the likes of Ernie Clement or Nathan Lukes.  Likewise, if the Jays were to sign another prime offseason target like Kyle Tucker, that pushes Barger into more of a third base role, making Okamoto then redundant.

Trades could alter the roster situation, of course, but whatever team signs Okamoto would surely have designs on him as more than just a part-time player.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Okamoto 19th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected a four-year, $64MM deal for the 29-year-old.  This contract doesn’t factor in the posting fee a big league team would also owe to the Giants, which hinges on the size of Okamoto’s deal — a $64MM contract would translate to an $11.5MM posting free, for instance.

Okamoto has 248 home runs and an outstanding .277/.361/.521 slash line over his career in Japan, though there are always questions about how exactly hitters will adjust in the move from NPB to MLB.  In Okamoto’s case in particular, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen raised some concerns over how the infielder will adjust to the higher velocities of big league pitching, as Okamoto has been inconsistent against pitches over 94mph.

The Blue Jays are broadly an “in on everyone” team that at least checks in on pretty much every available free agent or trade target every winter.  It could be that their interest in Okamoto is an extension of his due diligence, since Okamoto wouldn’t be as clean a fit on Toronto’s roster as other winter targets.

That said, the Jays have already added Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to the rotation, and their continued explorations into other big-ticket names indicates that Toronto is prepared to be even more aggressive after coming so close to a World Series title in 2025.  The Blue Jays also have a longstanding interest in trying to establish themselves amongst Japanese players and fans, which has involved failed pursuits of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki in the past.

Poll: Would Kyle Tucker Or Bo Bichette Fit The Blue Jays Better?

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The Blue Jays have been the most aggressive team in free agency by far this winter. Their offseason so far has been headlined by a seven-year deal for Dylan Cease. That hasn’t stopped them from remaining aggressive at the top of the market, however, and the Jays remain the team that’s been most clearly connected to the winter’s top two free agents: outfielder Kyle Tucker and infielder Bo Bichette. Bichette, of course, has spent his entire career with the Blue Jays and has not been shy about his desire to remain with Toronto going forward. Tucker, meanwhile, seems all but certain to depart from the incumbent Cubs for greener pastures and just yesterday met with the Jays at the club’s Spring Training complex in Dunedin.

While Toronto is very clearly involved in the markets for both players, it’s worth remembering that the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of around $282MM, according to RosterResource. Adding Tucker or Bichette and a $25-40MM annual salary to the books would push them past the highest threshold of the luxury tax, which sits at $304MM and carries with it the steepest penalties for going over.  They might not be willing or able to both re-sign Bichette and also bring Tucker into the fold. If the Jays are only able to land one of the offseason’s top two hitters, then, who would be the better fit for their roster?

Bichette is the familiar pick, and it’s hard to argue with his impact on the team. A three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani Bichette hit while playing through injury in Game 7 of this year’s World Series nearly made the Jays champions and that was just one piece of the .348/.444/.478 performance he turned in across seven Fall Classic games despite being hobbled on the bases and in the field. While an injury-marred and deeply disappointing season for Bichette in 2024 soured some on his overall profile, he’s still turned in a wRC+ of 120 or higher in six of his seven MLB seasons with a career mark of 122. That he’s done all that while typically playing a generally adequate shortstop is all the more impressive.

With that being said, Bichette isn’t exactly a perennial MVP candidate. His defense on the infield has never been great and a disastrous defensive season by the metrics this year has made it all the more clear that his future is likely at second or third base. For as consistently impressive as Bichette has been when healthy, he was only the third-best hitter on the Jays in 2025. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has, of course, stood head and shoulders above the rest of the team in terms of star power and overall offensive impact, but there have been years where Bichette was outperformed by George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Brandon Belt, Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez in the Jays’ lineup over the years. None of those players come close to matching Bichette’s consistency, but it’s fair to argue that he doesn’t offer the sort of six-plus win upside offered by many of the recent top free agents available.

That’s where Tucker stands out. The 28-year-old (29 in January) is a simply a cut above Bichette as a hitter. Tucker’s career 138 wRC+ is four points higher than the mark Bichette posted this year, which was his career-best in a season, outside of his 46-game rookie campaign in 2019. Since the start of the 2021 season, Tucker has hit .277/.365/.514 with 23.4 fWAR, a greater total than Bichette has accumulated across his entire career. Tucker is also a perennial threat to steal 25 to 30 bases, while Bichette has swiped more than 13 bags just once before in his career. Tucker’s status as a left-handed bat would also make him a strong complement to the Jays’ cache of impressive right-handed hitters, which includes not only Guerrero but also Springer and Kirk.

As perfect as the fit between Tucker and the Jays might seem, however, it’s worth considering the fact that Bichette could prove to be a better long-term investment. Both have dealt with injuries over the past two years, with 214 games played for Tucker and 220 for Bichette. With that said, Bichette is a year younger than Tucker and also figures to command the shorter (and cheaper) deal of the two; MLBTR predicts an eight-year, $208MM deal for Bichette, while Tucker is predicted to land a $400MM deal across 11 years. Paying Bichette through his age-35 season certainly sounds more appealing than paying Tucker through his age-39 campaign in terms of the team’s long-term prospects. At the same time, Tucker would undoubtedly offer more near-term impact to a team that just came just a few outs within a World Series title and has already made it as clear as can be that they’re all-in on their current window.

There’s also the positional fit to consider. Bichette could either return to his shortstop position or take second, with Andres Gimenez taking the other middle infield spot. That would leave every other position player in a similar spot to 2025. Addison Barger and Davis Schneider both played some infield and some outfield while Ernie Clement played all around the infield.

If Tucker were signed, he would jump into an outfield mix with Springer, Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho. It would push Barger and Schneider more firmly into the infield and bump Nathan Lukes to the bench, unless someone were then traded.

Assuming the Blue Jays can only sign one of Bichette or Tucker, which one do MLBTR readers think would be a better fit for the organization? Would Bichette’s status as an anchor of the current team, consistency, and more affordable expected contract make him the better choice? Or does the immediate impact and big lefty bat Tucker offers outweigh those advantages? Or should they skip both and spend their money on relievers or a different bat? Have your say in the poll below:

MLBTR Podcast: An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by B.B. Abbott of Wasserman Baseball to discuss…

  • Abbott’s approach to free agency (3:30)
  • The impact of the media on free agency (10:00)
  • The different levels of player involvement in free agency (17:00)
  • The decision to sign an extension instead of going to free agency (20:15)
  • Chris Sale and his extensions with the White Sox, Red Sox and Braves (23:00)
  • Byron Buxton and his extension with the Twins (28:50)
  • Representing young players going into the draft (32:10)
  • The general state of baseball (35:50)

Plus, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez – listen here
  • Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents – listen here
  • Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Kyle Tucker Visits Blue Jays’ Spring Facility

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The Blue Jays welcomed Kyle Tucker to their Dunedin complex this afternoon, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray writes that the Jays continue to have interest in both Tucker and Bo Bichette.

Toronto has been the most aggressive team in the first month of the offseason. Their seven-year deal with Dylan Cease is the biggest signing to date. They agreed to a three-year contract with KBO MVP Cody Ponce to deepen the rotation. None of that is expected to take them out of the mix on a top free agent hitter. It’d be stunning to see them sign Tucker and Bichette — who’ll probably join Cease in receiving the three largest contracts of the offseason — but the Jays appear firmly in play for either of free agency’s two best hitters.

Re-signing Bichette would be the more straightforward move, but Tucker is the better all-around player. He’s a lifetime .273/.358/.507 hitter and is coming off a .266/.377/.464 showing in his lone season with the Cubs. Even if the Jays don’t really need a corner outfielder, Tucker is the caliber of player for whom any team can make room. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last month that some executives with other clubs considered the Jays the likeliest landing spot. That preceded the Cease signing but hasn’t closed the door on the possibility.

MLBTR predicted Tucker to receive an 11-year, $400MM contract as he enters his age-29 season. He declined a qualifying offer and is attached to draft pick compensation. The Jays already forfeited their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Cease. Signing another qualified free agent would cost them their third- and sixth-highest picks as well. That would not apply to their own qualified free agent in Bichette (though they’d give up their right to receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round).

RosterResource projects the Jays around a $282MM competitive balance tax figure. They’re already on track for the highest payroll in team history. Adding another top free agent would push them beyond the $304MM final luxury tax threshold. There’s no indication that the budget is tight at this point, though the Jays could try to shed some of the remaining three years and $66MM on the José Berríos deal. Toronto is seeking a high-leverage reliever on top of their pursuit for a big bat.

Blue Jays Open To Trading Jose Berrios

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The Blue Jays’ early signings of Dylan Cease and KBO returnee Cody Ponce have deepened a rotation that already included Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. Lefty Eric Lauer and righty Yariel Rodriguez give Toronto a pair of quality swing options, too, and the Jays still have Bowden Francis and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann (who should be recovered from 2024 Tommy John surgery) in the upper minors as well.

The magnitude of Ponce’s three-year, $30MM contract presumably puts him squarely into the rotation. Barring a move to a six-man rotation or a spring injury, Toronto will have more starters than rotation places available. Injuries can turn a “surplus” into a deficiency pretty quickly, particularly when it comes to pitchers, but the Jays are willing to trade Berrios, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.

It’s easy to frame this as the Jays adding enough depth that they’re now willing to deal Berrios. That’d be the charitable (to Berrios) way of shaping things. The other and perhaps more likely angle is simply that Toronto wasn’t enamored with Berrios continuing as its fourth starter and has acted decisively with a pair of additions pushing the veteran righty down the depth chart.

Berrios, 32 next May, has been an iron man for the Jays and Twins throughout his big league tenure. He’s started at least 30 games every year since 2018, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he started a full slate of 12 games. No pitcher has started more games (234) or totaled more innings (1367 1/3) than Berrios in that span of eight years.

Along the way, Berrios has generally been an above-average starter. He’s logged a 3.94 ERA, set down 22.6% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 6.8% of the batters he’s faced. Few starters have been this reliable for this long.

Be that as it may, Berrios’ more recent seasons have seen him trend in the wrong direction. After punching out 23.7% of his opponents from 2018-23, he’s dropped to 19.6% over the past two seasons. Add in a 19.8% strikeout rate in 2022, and Berrios has now been under 20% in that regard in three of the past four years. League average in that time has been about 22.5%. Berrios has spent much of his career working with plus command, but this past season’s 8% walk rate — while still slightly better than the 8.4% league average — was up considerably from the 6.3% mark he posted across four prior seasons.

The worrying trends don’t stop there. Berrios’ 93 mph average four-seamer in 2025 was the lowest of his career, while the 92.2 mph average on his sinker was his second-lowest (leading only the 92.1 mph he averaged back in 2019). He also surrendered the highest average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.3%) of his career. His opponents’ 42.5% hard-hit rate was the second-highest mark in his MLB run. Berrios has only yielded a hard-hit rate north of 40% in three of his 10 major league seasons. All three have come within the past four years. Unsurprisingly, given the dips in velocity, command and whiffs, Berrios has become more homer-prone; after surrendering an average of 1.17 homers per nine frames from 2017-23, he’s up to 1.43 since Opening Day 2024.

None of this necessarily makes Berrios a bad pitcher. He’s an ultra-durable source of reliable, if unspectacular innings. However, coming off a down season that ended with what was incredibly the first IL stint of his big league career (elbow inflammation), would Berrios match the remaining three years and $66MM on his contract? He’d be hard-pressed to do so — certainly once factoring in the opt-out provision he has following the 2026 campaign and the escalators that could push his remaining guarantee from $66MM to $70MM.

Currently, Berrios is guaranteed $24MM in both 2027 and 2028. Both figures would rise by $1MM if the right-hander pitches a combined 300 innings in 2025-26 and another $1MM if he gets to a combined 350 innings. With 166 frames under his belt in 2025, he’d only need 134 innings in 2026 to secure an additional $2MM and a tougher but plausible 184 innings to tack on yet another $1MM per season. Given his durability, it’s likely that Berrios will at least be promised at least $50MM over two seasons when weighing his opt-out opportunity next winter — and possibly two years and $52MM.

All of that coalesces to make Berrios a difficult player to trade. He’ll pitch next year at 32, so it’s hardly out of the question that he rediscovers some of his waning ability to miss bats and/or limit walks and boosts his profile a bit. In that instance, however, Berrios might very well opt out of the two years left on his contract beyond the 2026 season. On the other hand, if the veteran righty continues to see his strikeouts dip and/or see his walks creep further north, he could be more of an innings-eating fifth starter who’s trending down and owed $24-26MM in both his age-33 and age-34 campaigns.

Essentially, any team trading for Berrios would probably do so with the hope that he’d rebound closer to his 2021-23 form — at which point he’d likely opt out. But to acquire him, they’d also have to take on the downside of Berrios maintaining his recent status quo or even slipping further, thus making that $48-52MM owed to him in 2027-28 wholly unappealing.

It’d be a surprise if the Jays were to find an interested team that was willing to both take on the entirety of Berrios’ remaining contract (to say nothing of doing so and surrendering young talent). In all likelihood, the Jays would need to include at least some cash or take back another contract of some note at a different position. That said, starting pitching is always in demand, and there are always teams looking for creative ways to swap weighty contracts that might better fit their current roster or payroll objectives.

One other fascinating wrinkle to consider: Berrios ended the 2025 season with 9.044 years of major league service time. That places him 128 days shy of 10 years. With MLB Opening Day set for March 25 and the trade deadline set to fall on Friday, July 31, Berrios would reach 10 years of service the day before next summer’s deadline. At that point, he’d acquire 10-and-5 rights — 10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team — thereby granting him full veto power over any trade scenarios. Currently, Berrios can block trades to a slate of eight teams.

Toronto can still carry Berrios into the 2026 season and enjoy the depth he provides. In all likelihood, injuries are going to thin out the top end of the current rotation options. That’s just reality for any big league club in today’s game. But the Jays have viable rotation alternatives, and the looming realization of Berrios’ 10-and-5 rights mean that trading him next winter will be even more complicated if he chooses to forgo his opt-out. There’d also be quite a bit of pressure to try to push a deal across the finish line in late July in the event that the Jays are intent on dealing him this summer.

It’s a complicated scenario, to say the least. Berrios’ contract is underwater but not an albatross. He’s a durable source of steady innings but no longer a borderline All-Star. The Jays can try to trade him this winter or during the season, but they’ll have not only the “clock” of the trade deadline but also the artificial clock of Berrios’ forthcoming full no-trade rights. Moving Berrios now would free up some more space for a run at re-signing Bo Bichette or trying to lure Kyle Tucker to Toronto, though the Jays would probably need to take on some other costs in order to get a deal done. It all makes for a fascinating thread to follow ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings, where convoluted trade packages and high-profile changes of scenery are the norm.

Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal

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December 3rd: The full breakdown is provided by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Cease gets a $23MM signing bonus and then a $22MM salary in 2026. His salary then jumps to $30MM in 2027 and falls by $1MM in each subsequent season. $10MM of his 2026 salary is deferred followed by $9MM in each season after that. The deal also contains awards bonuses and a limited no-trade clause.

December 2nd: The Jays made it official today, announcing they have signed Cease to a seven-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the MLBPA values the contract at roughly $184.6MM after adjusting for the deferred money.

November 26th: The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

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