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Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

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Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

Injury Notes: Brantley, Glasnow, Lucchesi, Pillar

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Astros GM James Click has “no update” on the status of Michael Brantley, who has now missed close to six weeks due to right shoulder discomfort.  In an interview with team radio broadcaster Robert Ford (hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle), Click said that “with every passing day, you have to kind of take an honest look at” whether or not Brantley’s 2022 season could be over, though the Astros are still hopeful that Brantley can eventually return.

Brantley himself told Rome and other reporters earlier this week that he hadn’t started swinging, and was “day by day” with “no timetable” about when he could start resuming baseball activities.  Considering the 35-year-old’s lengthy history of shoulder surgeries, there isn’t much Brantley or the Astros can do but wait and see if his discomfort lessens, since trying to force the issue could make things worse.  Houston has missed Brantley’s bat in the lineup, and this injury uncertainty also casts a shadow over Brantley’s free agent market this winter.  The veteran is in the final two months of his two-year, $32MM deal with the Astros.

More updates on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • Almost exactly one year ago, Tyler Glasnow underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his 2021 season and putting his participation in doubt for the 2022 campaign.  However, Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that Glasnow is “fully healthy” and said “the chance is not zero” that Glasnow could help the Rays before the year is out.  Considering that Glasnow is still at least a couple of weeks away from throwing to live hitters, mid-September might be the earlier he can return, and even then would likely be limited to bullpen work.
  • Joey Lucchesi is another TJ patient who could factor into the 2022 season, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that “if [Lucchesi] can continue down the path he’s on, he’s going to be an option for us.”  Lucchesi underwent his surgery in late June 2021, and he has been working out at the Mets’ spring facility in Florida.  The left-hander posted some solid numbers as a starter for the Padres and Mets over his four Major League seasons, but would also probably return as a reliever, given that he’d need less time to build up his arm for relief innings than starter’s innings.  Since New York in thin on left-handed relievers, Lucchesi or David Peterson could add some balance to the bullpen down the stretch and into the postseason.
  • Kevin Pillar’s season was thought to be over when he underwent shoulder surgery in June, but the Dodgers outfielder was recently cleared to start baseball activities.  “I would definitely call it best case scenario,” Pillar told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, and his aim is to at least give the Dodgers something to think about when building their late-season roster and their playoff rosters.  “It’s trying to get myself healthy, prove that I’m healthy, get some games under belt and put myself in position where…I’m available,” Pillar said.  The veteran outfielder signed a minor league deal with L.A. in March and appeared in only four games with the Dodgers before suffering a fractured left shoulder.

Justin Verlander Reaches 130 Innings Pitched, Vests 2023 Player Option

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Justin Verlander breezed through the Guardians lineup tonight, tossing six innings of scoreless ball. It was another dominant performance in a season full of them for the AL Cy Young award contender, and today’s start also marked a notable contractual development. Verlander reached 130 innings on the season, meaning he’s officially vested a $25MM player option for the 2023 campaign.

Verlander is trending towards foregoing that option, as he’s in position to handily surpass a $25MM average annual value as a free agent. The nine-time All-Star commanded an identical salary this year on the heels of a season in which he didn’t pitch as he rehabbed from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Amidst one of the best seasons of a Hall of Fame career, Verlander is trending towards a massive raise. That’s particularly true since he received and rejected a qualifying offer last winter, meaning the Astros cannot offer another QO next offseason. A signing club thus won’t have to forfeit any draft pick or international signing bonus space this time around. Barring injury or a completely out-of-the-blue collapse in the final couple months, he’ll shatter a $25MM guarantee on the free agent market.

After tonight’s start, Verlander now carries a major league best 1.73 ERA. His 25.5% strikeout rate isn’t at the elite 35.1% level he posted between 2018-20, but it’s still four points above the MLB average for starters. With league-best run prevention, Verlander’s dip in strikeouts isn’t likely to have too significant an effect on his value on the open market. That’s particularly true since his 95 MPH average fastball velocity has remained intact after the elbow surgery, and he’s continued to spin both his fastball and breaking pitches at a high-end level. Verlander also owns some of the best command in the sport, and the 2011 AL MVP has proven capable of thriving on the biggest stage. He carries a career 3.40 ERA in 187 2/3 postseason innings, and he’ll have an opportunity to build on that resume with Houston this October.

Verlander’s exceptional track record sets up one of the more fascinating free agent cases of the upcoming offseason. He’s clearly reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best pitchers, the kind of ace clubs would be happy to trot out in the opening game of a playoff series. A new deal will begin with his age-40 campaign, however, setting him up for a short-term contract with a massive annual salary.

The obvious comparison point is the record-setting contract scored by his former teammate Max Scherzer last winter. The three-time Cy Young winner signed a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets. That obliterated the previous all-time high annual salary, with Scherzer’s $43.333MM annual payout topping any previous contract’s yearly salary by more than $7MM. Scherzer was coming off a 179 1/3 inning, 2.46 ERA campaign in which he struck out 34.1% of opponents between the Nationals and Dodgers. That better swing-and-miss stuff might tip the nod in Scherzer’s favor, but Verlander and his representatives at ISE Baseball seem likely to try to top that AAV record — particularly if he holds a sub-2.00 ERA all year. Even if he doesn’t quite hit Scherzer’s heights, beating the $36MM annual salary that ranks second all-time feels attainable for Verlander.

It’ll be equally interesting to see the length of the contract Verlander might receive. Scherzer’s deal began with his age-37 campaign and takes him through 39, Verlander’s current age. With Verlander still at the top of his game, a multi-year pact feels likely. Whether a team would go to three years and sign him through age-42 remains to be seen.

The upcoming starting pitching market features a few high-end arms, although most have injury or age concerns. With Joe Musgrove agreeing to a five-year extension to stick in his hometown San Diego, players like Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Verlander look to be the top hurlers on the market (assuming all three trigger opt-out clauses in their contracts).

Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are above-average starters but each are already in their mid-30s. Noah Syndergaard has looked like a solid mid-rotation arm but isn’t throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did at his peak with the Mets. Sean Manaea has an underwhelming 4.24 ERA on the year, although he’s typically a solid mid-rotation type. Mike Clevinger will be entering his age-32 season and missed all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Zach Eflin is one of the younger arms available and generally solid when healthy, but he’s dealt with recurring knee injuries in his career that have again arisen this season. Clayton Kershaw seemingly limited his market last winter with geographic restrictions. It’s a class that won’t be lacking for star power, but there’s also a fair bit of uncertainty with most of the veteran hurlers who’ll be out there.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Deadline Recap: American League

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A wild trade deadline has now passed, with contenders fortifying themselves for a World Series run or a playoff push, rebuilding teams looking towards the future, and some teams in both camps being more cautious in their moves.  Here is the recap of every American League club’s most notable trades of the last few days, with the NL wrap-up coming on Wednesday….

New York: Though the Yankees’ rotation had been a big reason for their first-half dominance, the team still added Frankie Montas (one of the biggest trade candidates of the last few months) to reinforce the pitching staff.  Bringing in Montas and reliever Lou Trivino cost New York four noteworthy prospects, yet the Yankees were able to hang onto everyone in their true top tier.  Beyond Trivino, the Yankees further bolstered the relief corps by landing Scott Effross from the Cubs.  Acquiring Montas also gave New York the rotation depth for a fascinating one-for-one trade, as Jordan Montgomery was sent to the Cardinals for Gold Glove-winning center fielder Harrison Bader.

Assuming Bader returns from his current bout of plantar fasciitis in his normal form, he’ll form quite a defensive tandem with another reigning Gold Glover in Andrew Benintendi, acquired from the Royals earlier in the week.  The struggling Joey Gallo was subtracted from the outfield mix, as New York sent Gallo (a big get at last year’s trade deadline) to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter.  Gallo is an example of how sometimes the best deadline moves on paper don’t work out, but the Yankees look to have fortified themselves well for a return to the World Series.

Houston: The Astros are in hot pursuit of the Yankees for top spot in the AL, and also made multiple moves to shore up some weaker spots on the roster.  With catcher Martin Maldonado and first baseman Yuli Gurriel both struggling at the plate, Houston brought in two longtime faces of AL East franchises — former Oriole stalwart Trey Mancini and former Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez, for the combined cost of three prospects and young center fielder Jose Siri.

The Astros also dipped into their rotation depth to move veteran Jake Odorizzi for an experienced bullpen arm, moving Odorizzi to the Braves for Will Smith.  One need Houston didn’t address was center field, so it looks like the team will stick with the tandem of Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick down the stretch.

Seattle: The Mariners are chomping at the bit to finally make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and this aggressiveness manifested itself in one of the summer’s biggest blockbusters.  After months of speculation, the Reds finally moved Luis Castillo, and it was the Mariners who stepped up with a big package of four prospects (including top-50 types Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo) to land the All-Star right-hander.

Castillo only adds to a rotation that was already among baseball’s best, and on deadline day itself, the M’s patched a few more holes.  Curt Casali and Jake Lamb were acquired for bench depth, and Matthew Boyd was acquired from the Giants as an intriguing flier for September.  Boyd has missed the entire season rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery, but if he is able to return, he projects as a left-handed option for a bullpen short on southpaws.

Minnesota: Speaking of trading for Reds starters, the Twins nabbed Cincinnati’s other available (and controllable through 2023) righty in Tyler Mahle, after checking in on most of the bigger starters available.  While Castillo’s better track record meant the Mariners had to pay more, Minnesota’s concession was nothing to sneeze at, with three young prospects headlined by infielder Spencer Steer.  Still, having Mahle for as many as two postseason runs was worth the cost in the Twins’ view, and Mahle should only help a Twins rotation that has already been quite respectable amidst several injuries.

The bullpen was the greater pitching need, and the upgrades came at the cost of a total of five prospects.  But, the Twins made two significant trades in landing Jorge Lopez from the Orioles and Michael Fulmer from the Tigers.  The duo could instantly step right in as Minnesota’s primary late-game combo, or at least take some of the pressure off rookie Jhoan Duran and second-year hurler Griffin Jax.  The Twins also got Sandy Leon in a minor trade with the Guardians, bringing some catching depth on board with Ryan Jeffers still injured.

Toronto: The Blue Jays also mostly checked in on pitching, reportedly coming close to landing Noah Syndergaard and also being linked to such pitchers as Raisel Iglesias, Michael Fulmer, Luis Castillo, and Frankie Montas.  Instead of a headline-grabbing move, Toronto settled for reinforcing the bullpen by acquiring the hard-throwing Zach Pop and former Jay Anthony Bass from the Marlins, and getting swingman Mitch White from the Dodgers.  The Jays had to move some of their own young pitching to get White, and dealt top-100 prospect (but struggling at Triple-A) Jordan Groshans to Miami.

The Cubs’ Ian Happ was frequently mentioned as a Blue Jays target leading up to deadline day, yet Happ wasn’t dealt anywhere, and the Jays instead obtained longtime Royal Whit Merrifield.  The former All-Star is struggling through his worst season, but the Jays are hoping that a change of scenery will help Merrifield get back into form, and add depth at multiple positions around the diamond.  The trade with Kansas City was presumably made with the knowledge that Merrifield will be able to play in Toronto, as he recently missed a Royals/Blue Jays series because he wasn’t vaccinated.

Tampa Bay: Beset by injuries in the outfield, the Rays adjusted by acquiring Siri from the Astros (for young righties Seth Johnson and Jayden Murray) and David Peralta from the Diamondbacks (for catching prospect Christian Cerda).  While fan favorite outfielder Brett Phillips was designated for assignment and then traded to the Orioles to make room, the Rays feel they’ve reinforced their lineup — the weak link on a wild card contender with excellent pitching.

Garrett Cleavinger and Jeremy Walker also acquired from the Dodgers and Giants to bring a couple more arms into the pipeline.  The Rays did at least explore a real eye-opening move in checking in with the Nationals about Juan Soto, and one position left unaddressed was the catching position, though Tampa reportedly had interest in Willson Contreras.

Cleveland: The Guardians are another team with a longstanding need at catcher, and it seemed like Cleveland was getting close to a deal for A’s backstop Sean Murphy — especially since the Guards were reportedly open to making a big move by offering one of their controllable starters.  However, though the Guardians were said to be looking hard for pitching of their own and also flirted with the idea of an offer for Juan Soto, all of the talk resulted in a very quiet deadline.

Other than moving Sandy Leon to Minnesota, the Guardians didn’t make a single trade.  Especially with so many other contenders fortifying their rosters, the Guards’ inaction was a risky move for a team in the thick of the AL Central and wild card races.  Cleveland is counting on its internal mix to step up over the last two months, but if the Guardians fall short of the postseason, there will be some what-ifs asked about this deadline.

Chicago: In somewhat similar fashion to the Guardians, the White Sox are in the AL Central/wild card races, checked in on a big name (Shohei Ohtani), focused on pitching additions (linked to such familiar Chicago names as Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Mychal Givens) and…ended up coming away without much on deadline day.  White Sox GM Rick Hahn even openly stated that he was “disappointed” at his team’s relative inaction.  The Sox did add some needed left-handed depth to the bullpen in landing Jake Diekman from the Red Sox in an exchange for backup catching Reese McGuire, even if Diekman’s control problems don’t exactly promise drama-free innings.

Boston: With a dismal July record, the Red Sox were exploring trading their veteran players leading up to the deadline, and to some extent this did happen when Christian Vazquez and Jake Diekman.  But, the likes of Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, and Rich Hill are all still in Red Sox uniforms, and the Sox even added two more veterans in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.  In Pham’s case, he’ll likely be a rental player due to his mutual option for 2023, but Hosmer is signed through 2025.

In an odd turn of events, Hosmer used his no-trade clause to refuse heading to the Nationals as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster, and has now landed in Boston along with two prospects in exchange for former first-rounder Jay Groome.  Since the Padres are paying virtually all of Hosmer’s salary, in a way it’s kind of a no-lose proposition for the Red Sox, except for the fact that Hosmer has been more or less a league-average player for the last four-plus seasons.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Sox look to flip Hosmer again after the season, but for now, the idea is that Hosmer and Pham can help the club regroup and make a late run at a wild card slot.

Baltimore: The surprisingly competitive Orioles entered today’s play 2.5 games out of a wild card berth, but rather than make a true playoff push, the O’s kept their eyes focused on the future.  As a result, team leader Trey Mancini and breakout closer Jorge Lopez were each traded, with a total of six pitching prospects coming back as further reinforcements to Baltimore’s minor league system.  The three-team Mancini trade involving the Astros and Rays also unofficially netted the Orioles Brett Phillips, as the O’s acquired Phillips as backup outfield depth after Tampa Bay designated him for assignment.  It surely isn’t the outcome that Baltimore fans wanted to see after so many years of rebuilding, but with the steps forward the team has made in 2022, it now seems possible that the Orioles could again be on the buyer side of the ledger by the 2023 deadline.

Texas: Another “wait until next year” team, the Rangers spent a ton on its roster in the offseason but 2023 seemed like the real target point for the club’s return to contention.  Perhaps reflecting this in-between state, Texas didn’t do much buying or selling at the deadline, apart from moving reliever Matt Bush to the Brewers in a swap for the versatile Mark Mathias and left-handed pitching prospect Antoine Kelly.

Detroit: 2022 was the go-for-it year for the Tigers, yet a swath of injuries and slumping players quickly put the team back into seller mode.  Reflecting the disastrous nature of the season, the Tigers were reportedly willing to discuss “just about everyone” in trade talks, but rather than a truly transformative move, Detroit played it pretty safe on the trade front.  Impending free agents Michael Fulmer (to the Twins) and Robbie Grossman (to the Braves) were dealt, but though Detroit had plenty of good bullpen arms on offer, GM Al Avila felt “the market was flooded with relievers,” limiting the Tigers’ leverage.

Kansas City: Trading Carlos Santana to the Mariners in late June gave the Royals an early jump on their trade plans, and they ended up making more significant deals in swapping Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees and longtime Royal Whit Merrifield to Toronto.  It was pretty easy to figure out Kansas City’s goal — six of the seven young players acquired in those three trades were pitchers, adding more arms to all levels of the farm system.  There was plenty of interest in other Kansas City veterans like Michael A. Taylor or Josh Staumont, but the Royals to some extent held steady on a true housecleaning.

The Royals also brought in a more experienced arm in Luke Weaver, giving K.C. a pitcher (who may used either as as a reliever or starter) controlled through the 2023 season.  For Weaver, the Royals sent the Diamondbacks Emmanuel Rivera, who was likely an odd man out amidst Kansas City’s multitude of infield options.  The Royals also acquired Brent Rooker to help fill the holes in the outfield, landing Rooker from the Padres for backup catcher Cam Gallagher.

Oakland: The Athletics have been in rebuild mode for months, and Frankie Montas was finally moved after countless rumors.  As in their offseason moves of star players, the A’s continued to pursue a mix of big league-ready and longer-term prospects, getting four young pitchers back in return from the Yankees for Montas and Lou Trivino.  JP Sears has already made his MLB debut and Ken Waldichuk is the highest-ranked prospect of the quartet.

With Montas so widely expected to be dealt, his situation took up much of the buzz surrounding the Athletics, though the club also looked into moving Sean Murphy and Ramon Laureano.  Since Murphy and Laureano are each under arbitration control through 2025, however, the A’s didn’t quite have as much urgency in working out a trade immediately.  Despite those years of control, it’s probably safe to expect Oakland to continue taking calls on both players this winter as the A’s continue their latest roster overhaul.

Los Angeles: Another disappointing season led the Angels to take perhaps more of a bigger-picture view of their roster, as the team at least heard out other clubs’ offers for Shohei Ohtani, even if nobody met the Halos’ understandably huge asking price.  However, the Angels were still quite busy, and reloaded by dealing away Noah Syndergaard and Brandon Marsh to the Phillies, and Raisel Iglesias to the Braves.

Getting Iglesias’ remaining $51MM in salary off the books is itself a win for Anaheim, but the team also obtained a top young catching prospect (Logan O’Hoppe), a controllable starter (Tucker Davidson), a familiar face of a veteran pitcher (Jesse Chavez), an outfield prospect (Jadiel Sanchez) and a lottery ticket of a former first overall pick (Mickey Moniak).  It is an interesting array that falls a bit short of a true reload for 2023, but it gives the Angels some options, flexibility, and plans for the future as they work out their next steps.

Minor MLB Transactions: Deadline Day

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As is the case at every trade deadline, there’s a flurry of activity on deadline day. The most high-profile of the moves are the trades themselves, but the aftermath of that activity often results in a shuffle of minor moves of their own. Plenty of clubs have had to fill or create roster spots depending on the deals they’ve made in the last 24 hours. We’ll round up 40-man roster transactions not previously covered on the MLBTR pages here:

AL East

AL Central

  • Tigers: Reinstated right-hander Matt Manning from 60-day injured list
  • White Sox: Claimed right-hander Tobias Myers off waivers from Giants

AL West

NL East

  • Nationals: Designated left-hander Josh Rogers for assignment; transferred left-hander Evan Lee to 60-day injured list. Selected the contract of first baseman Joey Meneses
  • Marlins: Reinstated right-hander Anthony Bender from 60-day injured list
  • Phillies: Claimed left-hander Andrew Vasquez off waivers from Blue Jays

NL Central

  • Cubs: Claimed right-hander Kervin Castro off waivers from Giants
  • Brewers: Designated right-hander Luke Barker for assignment

NL West

Giants: Lost right-hander Tobias Myers on waivers to White Sox; lost right-hander Kervin Castro on waivers to Cubs

Astros Catcher Jason Castro Out For Season Due To Knee Surgery

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The Astros announced today that catcher Jason Castro was moved to the 60-day IL due to knee surgery.  According to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, Castro underwent surgery last week, and is out for the season.  Back in March, Rome reported that Castro was considering retirement after the season.  So it’s quite possible that Castro’s June 29th game against the Mets in New York was his last.  If so, it was a strong note to finish on, as Castro’s ninth inning home run accounted for all the runs in an Astros victory.

Castro’s injury explains the Astros’ trade with the Red Sox for catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday.  Vazquez will team up with stalwart Martin Maldonado as the Astros look to coast to an AL West title and perhaps much more.  Astros GM James Click also picked up DH/first baseman Trey Mancini and reliever Will Smith in recent days.

If 2022 marks the end of the road for Castro, he can take pride in a successful 12-year career bookended by multiyear stints with the Astros.  Castro made the All-Star team in 2013 with what would be his finest season.  He also played for the Twins, Angels, and Padres, earning more than $50MM in his career.  In addition to 952 regular season contests, Castro appeared in 14 postseason games, and notably he played for other organizations during the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

Braves, Astros Swap Will Smith For Jake Odorizzi

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Aug. 2: The teams have formally announced the trade.

Aug. 1: The Astros are acquiring reliever Will Smith from the Braves for starter Jake Odorizzi, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link).

Odorizzi has been seen as an expendable piece for the Astros, perhaps at least since he was left off the club’s ALDS roster last October.  He’s worked as part of a six-man rotation this year in Houston, but Lance McCullers Jr. is close to making his season debut as he recovers from a forearm strain.  The 32-year-old Odorizzi has pitched to a solid 3.75 ERA in a dozen starts for the Astros this year, averaging exactly five innings per outing.  He’s a flyball pitcher who has never been particularly adept at missing bats, but he’s been able to avoid hard hits this year to generate good results.

It would appear that Atlanta’s motivation here is to add veteran depth at the back of their rotation, which has consisted almost entirely of Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, and rookie sensation Spencer Strider.  Anderson has struggled to the tune of a 4.99 ERA, while Strider has reached 80 1/3 innings on the season after pitching a career-high 94 last year.  Odorizzi’s last outing served as an excellent trade showcase for Houston – seven scoreless innings against the Mariners.  Odorizzi had injured his leg in May, knocking him out for seven weeks, and dealt with a blister before the start against Seattle.

Odorizzi’s contract is a factor here.  He’s earning $5MM this year (about $1.79MM remains) but would gain $500K upon reaching 100 innings plus $1MM each at 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings.  Odorizzi currently sits at 60 innings, so 120 would seem to be the likely ceiling.  Odorizzi also has a player option worth $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle explains, “Odorizzi’s player option can max out at a $12.5 million base salary and a $6.25 million buyout — but only if he pitches in 30 games in which he records 12 or more outs in 2021-22.  After Sunday, Odorizzi has 29 such games across 2021-22.”  Given that the pitcher appears to have at least $3MM at stake in making one more four-inning start, it was mutually beneficial for the Astros to find a team that was more comfortable letting him reach that threshold and achieving a few performance bonuses.

Smith, 33, was the top reliever in the 2019-20 free agent class.  The Braves signed him to a hefty three-year, $40MM contract, also surrendering their second-round draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool money.  Smith’s effectiveness waned in Atlanta, as he was often done in by the longball and increasingly worse control.  He served as the Braves’ closer in the 2021 regular season to acceptable results, but then became a major factor in their postseason run with 11 scoreless innings and six saves.  Smith will forever be immortalized as the pitcher on the mound when the Braves won it all last year.

In March, the Braves signed Kenley Jansen, pushing Smith into a setup role.  Smith was at times the Braves’ third-highest leverage reliever this season, but in July he ranked seventh in that regard and was used in more of a mop-up role.  According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, Smith would have likely been the odd man out for Atlanta once veteran reliever Kirby Yates is activated.  Smith is earning $13MM this year (about $4.6MM remains), plus he’ll be owed a $1MM buyout for 2023.

Smith joins a Houston bullpen led by Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton.  None of those pitchers throw left-handed, and southpaw Blake Taylor hit the IL in June with elbow inflammation.  Smith has never been reliant on velocity, so it’s possible a fresh set of eyes on his mechanics and pitch mix, especially given the Astros’ strong reputation in that department, can right the ship.

If Odorizzi winds up with 110-119 innings, the Braves will end up paying him around $3.3MM in total.  In trading Smith, Atlanta shed a financial commitment of about $5.6MM, so they’d “gain” $2.3MM in the swap assuming they’re not including cash in the deal.  It’s possible, too, that Odorizzi falls short of 110 innings.  Money aside, this trade represents each team dealing from a surplus to better fill its needs.

It’s been a busy evening for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, who also traded for Tigers outfielder Robbie Grossman.  Similarly, Astros GM James Click has been active today on the eve of the trade deadline, also adding catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston and first baseman Trey Mancini from the Orioles.

Astros Searching For Center Field Help

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The Astros had a very active day on Monday, bringing in a pair of veteran position players in Trey Mancini and Christian Vázquez and reportedly agreeing to swap Jake Odorizzi with the Braves’ Will Smith. Houston isn’t finished trying to bolster the roster before the deadline, however, as Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports (Twitter link) they’re on the hunt for center field help.

Houston general manager James Click has already checked off what very well may have been the club’s three biggest needs this summer — first base, catcher and left-handed relief. Center field is arguably the final area the front office should target, as the club has gotten just a .200/.262/.342 showing out of the position. Jake Meyers has struggled since returning from the injured list, and José Siri underwhelmed before he was dealt to the Rays as part of the three-team deal that brought back Mancini. Chas McCormick has played well for a second straight season, but he’s seen a bit more time in the corner outfield than in center this year.

The Astros have reportedly inquired about Pirates star Bryan Reynolds in the past, and Rosenthal recently floated the idea of Houston dangling some of their controllable starters to the Orioles in an attempt to pry away Cedric Mullins. Both players seem unlikely to move over the next 16 hours, but the Astros potential interest in both demonstrates the club has explored the possibility of an impact center field pickup for a while.

Assuming both Reynolds and Mullins stay put, the trade market at the position isn’t especially robust. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano would be the top player who’s likely to be available, but it’s hard to envision the Astros making a run at him. Not only could the intra-division rivalry complicate a trade, the Astros dealt away Laureano as a prospect for a minimal return, and there’s been no love lost between the A’s and Astros over the past few years.

Kansas City’s Michael A. Taylor and the Cubs Rafael Ortega are the only other center fielders who placed among MLBTR’s top deadline trade candidates. Other players who could conceivably be available include the Nationals Víctor Robles and, if the Giants decide to retool at the deadline, Mike Yastrzemski.

Bullpen Rumors: Soto, Givens, Moore

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While just about any team in need of bullpen help would love to get its hands on Tigers closer Gregory Soto, Detroit is setting a lofty asking price, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Tigers are seeking multiple MLB-ready or nearly MLB-ready pieces and will surely be focused on players with several years of club control remaining, given that Soto himself has three years of team control beyond the current campaign. The 27-year-old is averaging a massive 98.6 mph on his heater and has pitched to a 2.36 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, a 10.3% walk rate, a 46.5% ground-ball rate and 19 saves so far in 2022. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports that the Astros are among the clubs with interest. Houston hasn’t had a single left-handed reliever eclipse ten innings this season, so it’s no surprise they’d have their eyes on a high-end southpaw like Soto.

More rumblings on the bullpen market…

  • The White Sox picked up Jake Diekman in a deal with the Red Sox this evening, but they’re still on the hunt for relief help. Bruce Levine of 670 the Score reports that the Sox are among the clubs with interest in Cubs reliever Mychal Givens (Twitter link). The veteran righty is quite likely to move by tomorrow evening’s deadline, as he’s on track to hit free agency after the season. Givens’ deal contains a 2023 mutual option, but those are rarely exercised by both sides. The righty is due what remains on a $3.5MM salary for this season, plus a $1.5MM buyout on the option. Givens, who signed with the Cubs over the offseason, has a 2.66 ERA across 40 2/3 innings. He’s punched out an excellent 29.7% of opponents, although his 11% walk rate is a bit higher than ideal. Nevertheless, a relatively affordable middle reliever with a strong track record and Givens’ bat-missing abilities should attract interest from contenders.
  • As part of an overview on the Rangers deadline outlook, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News posits that reliever Matt Moore is the most likely player on the club to be traded. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Moore’s trade candidacy a few weeks ago, noting that the veteran southpaw has adapted well to a bullpen conversion after a career as a primary starter. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, Moore made the big league roster two weeks into the season. He’s followed with 48 2/3 innings over 36 outings, posting a 1.66 ERA with an above-average 26.1% strikeout rate and a huge 52.5% grounder rate. An elevated walk percentage (12.1%) stands as a bit of a black mark on his record, but that combination of strikeouts and grounders will no doubt appeal to contending clubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that Moore — as well as Tigers reliever Michael Fulmer — was on the Yankees radar, but it’s not clear whether those hurlers are still on the wish list after New York brought in Scott Effross and Lou Trivino in separate deals this afternoon.

Astros Acquire Christian Vazquez From Red Sox

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The Astros hunt for catching help is over, as they announced an agreement Monday night to bring in Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox. Prospects Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu are headed to Boston in return.

Vazquez, 31, will now join just the second organization of his career, as he’s been with the Red Sox since being drafted by them in 2008. Since that time, he’s reached the majors and established himself as a solid regular. Though he’s never been an All-Star, Vazquez has played in 407 games for the Red Sox from 2019 to the present, slashing .272/.321/.424 for a wRC+ of 97. If not for a dismal season last year, those numbers would look even better, as he’s posted a wRC+ of 102 or higher in 2019, 2020 and here in 2022. This year, he’s hitting .282/.327/.432, 111 wRC+. Combined with his defensive contributions, he’s produced 6.4 wins above replacement in that four-year stretch, according to FanGraphs.

He and the Red Sox agreed to a three-year extension in early 2018, which came with a club option for 2022. That option was eventually exercised by the club, with Vazquez now just a few months away from reaching free agency for the first time. Boston looked like contenders for much of the season but had a dismal showing in July, going 8-19, dropping to the basement of the AL East and 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Given all of those factors, the Sox began entertaining offers and evidently found one to their liking.

For the Astros, they’ve been an obvious fit for a catching addition for quite some time, with both Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro struggling at the plate this year. The Astros have shown themselves to be quite fond of Maldonado in terms of his game calling and clubhouse presence, but he’s hit just .173/.239/.342 on the year for a wRC+ of 66. Castro has been far worse, slashing .115/.205/.179 for a wRC+ of just 15. He also landed on the IL a month ago with a knee injury, only increasing the need for reinforcements behind the plate.

The Astros are clear buyers, sitting on a record of 67-36 that gives them a 12-game lead over the Marines in the AL West. Vazquez is the second pick-up of the day, as they also brought aboard Trey Mancini earlier today, bolstering their lineup for the final months of the season and the postseason.

As for the Red Sox, they are in a much more nebulous position, sitting outside the postseason picture but close enough that the season isn’t exactly pushing up the daisies just yet. With their recent slide, questions have been raised about how they will approach the deadline, with many impending free agents that could conceivably be moved if the Sox are willing. Vazquez was one such name, with J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi among the others. It seems there won’t be a tidy answer, with the club trying to walk a line between buying and selling. Shortly after the Vazquez deal was announced, the club also reportedly acquired impending free agent Tommy Pham from the Reds, but then also reportedly traded Jake Diekman to the White Sox. With less than 24 hours to go until the deadline, there are likely many more moves to come.

In the immediate term, they add a pair of interesting young players to the farm system. Valdez, 23, is an infielder who is having a breakout season in the minors. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he’s hit .327/.410/.606 on the year. Based on that showing, he jumped into the Baseball America list of top Astros’ prospects at their midseason update, coming in at #12. Abreu, 23, is an outfielder with a similar helium-backed trajectory. He’s hit .249/.399/.359 for the year, jumping up to the #21 slot in the Astros system in the BA midseason update.

Mark Berman of Fox 26 was first to report the Astros were acquiring Vazquez in exchange for two prospects. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe was first to report the Red Sox were receiving Valdez and Abreu.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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