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AL East Notes: Sale, Swihart, Yankees, Chang, Blue Jays

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Chris Sale is only under contract through the 2019 season, and his potential future in Boston “could be the key to the entire offseason” for the Red Sox, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  The Sox are sure to discuss an extension with Sale this winter, though if they don’t feel the southpaw will be staying beyond the coming season (or the team is wary of spending big money on Sale over the long term), then Mastrodonato believes landing another frontline pitcher will become an immediate priority.  If the Red Sox are able to extend Sale or believe they’ll be able to re-sign him next offseason, starting pitching likely won’t be a pressing priority this winter.  In my opinion, I’d guess the Red Sox would pursue some type of controllable starter regardless of what happens with Sale, given that Rick Porcello will also be a free agent next winter and Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury history makes him a bit of a question mark for 2019.
  • Also from Mastrodonato’s piece, he notes that the Red Sox will be bringing Blake Swihart to Spring Training as a catcher.  With Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon ahead of Swihart on the catching depth chart, the team experimented with Swihart as a utility player last season in an attempt to get him into the lineup, with unremarkable results.  While Swihart will continue to get some work at multiple positions, his trade value would be maximized if he could stick behind the plate.  Swihart has been the focus of trade rumors for well over a year, and the Red Sox were known to have a very high asking price in talks with other teams as of last May.  Those demands seemed high at the time, given Swihart’s struggles to break through as a Major League player, and he did little to raise his stock over the rest of the season.
  • The Yankees “pushed hard” to acquire infield prospect Yu Chang from the Indians when the two teams were discussing the Andrew Miller trade in the summer of 2016, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  Chang has made steady progress since, with MLB.com currently ranking him as the sixth-best prospect in the Tribe’s system following a .256/.330/.411 performance over 518 PA at Triple-A last season.  It isn’t known if New York still has Chang on its radar, though with the Yankees recently showing interest in trading for one of Cleveland’s top starters, Chang could become a target again if the two clubs expand talks into a multi-player trade.  Pluto also notes that other teams have called the Indians about Chang in trade discussions.
  • Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays are one of several teams that face losing at least one player, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With newly-acquired Tyler Thornton requiring Rule 5 protection, Toronto currently has 36 players on its 40-man, with Davidi figuring that pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, and Yennsy Diaz will account for three of the four open spots.  This leaves multiple Rule 5-eligible prospects vying for just one roster spot, though the Jays could also create more space with trades or releases before Tuesday’s deadline.  Yangervis Solarte is a likely non-tender candidate, for instance, and there has been speculation has the Jays could part ways with former top prospect Dalton Pompey, who is out of options and seemingly buried on Toronto’s depth chart.  Davidi’s piece also contains a broader overview of the challenges that teams face when they have a surplus of minor league talent at one or more positions, as a club can risk losing or overlooking someone simply due to lack of playing time, only to see that player blossom elsewhere.

International Transactions: 11/18/18

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Here’s the roundup of some familiar North American names heading to play ball overseas…

  • The KT Wiz of the Korean Baseball Organization has announced the signing of right-hander Raul Alcantara, according to San Kang of Sports Dong-A (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz).  The contract will pay Alcantara $650K for the coming KBO season.  The righty was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster at the end of Spring Training, and then posted a 5.29 ERA, 5.7 K/9, and 3.79 K/BB rate over 83 1/3 innings for Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, working as a starter in 10 of his 32 games.  Over 46 1/3 IP for the A’s at the big league level in 2016-17, Alcantara managed just a 7.19 ERA, and he allowed a whopping 14 homers over that limited stretch.
  • In other news from the KBO, the Kia Tigers announced that they are working on a contract with outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (hat tip to Dan Kurtz once again), though a deal is not yet official.  Hazelbaker began the 2018 season as a member of the Diamondbacks organization before a pair of trades sent him to the Rays and then to the Twins, though he spend the entire season at the Triple-A level, hitting only .204/.298/.385 over 356 combined PA.  The 31-year-old Hazelbaker posted a much better batting line in his brief exposure to Major League pitching in 2016-17, hitting .258/.327/.500 over 285 career plate appearances for the Cardinals and D’Backs.  Originally a fourth-round pick for the Red Sox in 2009, Hazelbaker has bounced around six teams in his pro career and will now look for a change of scenery in South Korea.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the last week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • A 10-9 win-loss record didn’t prevent Jacob deGrom from winning the NL Cy Young Award, though that record could impact what the Mets ace will earn in arbitration this winter.  Matt Swartz, creator of MLBTR’s arbitration model, profiles deGrom’s unique situation in the first Arbitration Breakdown piece of the 2018-19 offseason, noting that deGrom could end up being an important precedent for other pitchers in future arbitration cases.
  • Speaking of arbitration, Tim Dierkes presents MLBTR’s annual list of potential non-tender candidates, listing 51 arb-eligible players whose teams could simply not tender them new contracts on the November 30th deadline.  These players could also be candidates to be traded or released before November 30 — since Tim published his list, we’ve already seen one name (Justin Bour, formerly of the Phillies) hit the waiver wire.
  • Speaking of Phillies first basemen, Carlos Santana is rumored to be on the trade market less than a year after signing in Philadelphia, as the team is eager to end the Rhys Hoskins-as-an-outfielder experiment.  Tim takes a look at some teams that could possibly fit as trade partners for the Phillies in finding a new spot for the veteran slugger.
  • Trading Santana is just one of many rumored moves in what is expected to be a very busy offseason for the Phillies.  With the team linked to just about every big free agent and trade target on the market, the question has to be asked, how much do the Phillies have to spend on these acquisitions?  In his first “Projecting Payrolls” piece for MLBTR, Rob Huff breaks down the Phillies’ projected payroll space for the coming offseason, based on such factors as their past spending habits, future commitments, team needs, and more.
  • Our preview of each team’s winter plans continued with seven new entries in the Offseason Outlook series.  This week’s featured teams: the Mariners, Mets (both by Connor Byrne), Pirates, Nationals (both by Jeff Todd). Padres (by Jason Martinez), Yankees (by Steve Adams), and Red Sox (by Mark Polishuk).
  • Patrick Corbin is projected to land the biggest contract of any free agent starting pitcher, leading Ty Bradley to ask MLBTR’s readers which team will end up signing the star left-hander.  The choice was clear, as over 55% of readers polled believe Corbin will return to his home state to sign with the Yankees.
  • We’ll wrap up this Phillies-centric week of original content with another poll, this one from Connor inquiring whether or not Philadelphia will wind up with Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper when the dust settles this winter.  Interestingly, 32.67% of readers polled believe neither player will be a Phillie on Opening Day, with 27.34% predicting the Phillies will sign Harper and 25.77% calling a Machado signing.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: FAs, Yanks’ SP Pursuit, Giants, D-backs, Mets

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

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4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.

8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

Quick Hits: Astros, Red Sox, Robertson, Girardi, Reds, Snell

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The Astros are more focused on the trade market than free agency in their search for starting pitching, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Houston’s “inquiring on nearly every available starter via trade,” Morosi hears. The Astros are already known to have interest in Mariners left-hander James Paxton, who’s one of several front-end starters who could be on the block this offseason. Other potential movers include the Indians’ Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, the Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke, the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner.

Here’s more from around the majors:

  • Free-agent reliever David Robertson prefers to sign with a team in the Northeast, where he has pitched the majority of his career as a member of the Yankees. The 33-year-old may simply end up re-signing with the Yanks, but Rob Bradford of WEEI observes that Robertson would be a logical fit for the archrival Red Sox. The world champions’ bullpen could suffer a couple blows in the coming weeks if free agents Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly cash in elsewhere, which would leave room for a Robertson addition. Moreover, as a Rhode Island resident whose wife is from Medfield, Mass., Robertson has New England ties, as Bradford notes.
  • Joe Girardi was a strong candidate to become the Reds’ manager last month, but he took himself out of contention, paving the way for the team to hire David Bell. Girardi spoke Saturday about his withdrawal from Cincinnati’s search, telling Brendan Kuty of NJ.com: “I just decided that I was going to broadcast another year and spend another year with my family, wait to see what opportunities are presented next year and go from there. Thought I had good interviews but I just decided I’m going to wait.” Girardi was also a candidate in Texas, which, like Cincinnati, has struggled of late and may be in for another lean year in 2019. Considering the success Girardi had with the Yankees from 2008-17, neither Cincy nor Texas looked like an ideal match for him on paper. However, Girardi suggested to Kuty that he’s not opposed to overseeing a rebuilding club. “Whether it’s a team that’s rebuilding or it’s a team that’s in the middle (of a rebuild), it doesn’t matter to me,” the 54-year-old said. “I just felt like it wasn’t the right time.”
  • With Blake Snell fresh off winning American League Cy Young honors, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times revisits the 2011 draft, in which the Rays landed the left-hander. Although the Rays had 10 of the top 60 picks that year, nearly all of their selections have disappointed in various ways, as Topkin details. Snell, whom they nabbed 52nd overall, has been an obvious exception. Notably, Tampa Bay wouldn’t have owned the choice it used on Snell had it not signed veteran outfielder Brad Hawpe in August 2010. Hawpe made little on-field impact as a Ray, but his exit in free agency during the ensuing offseason netted the team the compensatory pick that turned into Snell.

Poll: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado And The Phillies

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On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) –  easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.

Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed  that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.

The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.

Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.

Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.

Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.

Jeff Wilpon On deGrom, Syndergaard, Payroll, Front Office

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The Mets aren’t yet prioritizing a contract extension for National League Cy Young Award-winning right-hander Jacob deGrom, COO Jeff Wilpon informed Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News and other reporters Friday. However, the two sides could begin discussions on a new deal next month. “We’ll talk with the new agent here at some point in the near future, probably see him at the Winter Meetings,” Wilpon said. DeGrom’s situation is particularly interesting because his previous agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, became New York’s general manager last month. But deGrom stayed with the same agency, CAA Baseball, where former Van Wagenen partner Jeff Berry is now representing the soon-to-be 31-year-old hurler. If deGrom, who has two years of arbitration control remaining, does strike a long-term pact with the Mets, it’ll come without Van Wagnen’s direct involvement. While the GM would have to approve an extension, he’ll abstain from contract talks with deGrom in order to avoid a conflict of interest.

  • Van Wagenen also used to represent deGrom’s teammate and co-ace, Noah Syndergaard, who has been popular in the rumor mill this week. Should New York make Syndergaard and his three years of control available, most of the league would likely inquire, though the team understandably seems content to go forward with him. Wilpon didn’t rule out a Syndergaard trade, but he said Friday (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that a deal involving the flamethrowing 26-year-old “would have to be pretty lopsided” in the Mets’ favor.
  • New York already has upward of $138MM going toward next year’s roster, which won’t give the club much room to spend if it plans on staying in the vicinity of last season’s $150MM-plus Opening Day total. A payroll increase would clearly benefit Van Wagenen in his first offseason on the job, though Wilpon wasn’t willing to reveal whether that’s in the Mets’ plans. “Brodie knows what the parameters of what the payroll is and what we’re planning to do,” said Wilpon (per DiComo).
  • The Mets recently parted ways with J.P. Ricciardi, who was a key member of their previous front office. Assistant GM John Ricco was also integral in the Mets’ prior power structure, but his future is now up in the air. Ricco remains in the front office for the time being, according to Wilpon, who stated (via Ackert) he’s “working” and “has a contract,” adding that “[Ricco] and Brodie will have that conversation when they get to it.” It’s worth noting that Ricciardi also had a contract with the Mets, but the deal didn’t prevent his exit. With that in mind, Ricco may not be a lock to stay in the fold.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Syndergaard, Rangers, Minor, Orioles

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Star right-hander Noah Syndergaard has drawn trade interest this offseason, but if the Mets do deal him, it’s not going to be for a package of prospects, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Rather, because the Mets aim to contend in 2019, they’d need to make a trade that improves their roster both now and in the future, according to Rosenthal. Moving Syndergaard would likely cause significant damage to the Mets’ rotation heading into 2019, though, so they’d almost have to sign a replacement in free agency, Rosenthal notes. To this point, the Mets have been “very engaged in the marketplace,” a representative for a free-agent starter tells Rosenthal.

Syndergaard’s not the only established Mets hurler whose future is in question, per Rosenthal, who adds that all of their starters are generating interest. Syndergaard’s fellow ace, National League Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, isn’t going anywhere, sources tell Rosenthal. The rest of the Mets’ rotation – which consists of Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas –  isn’t as impressive, though Wheeler and Matz are appealing. Wheeler, healthy for the first time since 2014, is coming off a terrific season, but he only has a year of control remaining; Matz is an injury-prone lefty who was a mixed bag in 2018, but he’s still just 27 and has three years of control left; Vargas, meanwhile, endured a disastrous 2018, and with a guaranteed $10MM left on his contract, the Mets may be fortunate to find a taker for him. However, as with Syndergaard, the Mets’ goal in giving up any of Wheeler, Matz or Vargas would be to better themselves in the near and long term, Rosenthal writes.

More rumblings from Rosenthal…

  • Even though the Rangers’ rotation is perilously thin, the rebuilding club would likely trade its top starter, left-hander Mike Minor, for the right offer, Rosenthal suggests. Minor’s drawing interest on the heels of his first season in Texas, which signed him to a three-year, $28MM guarantee last December. When he joined the Rangers, Minor was coming off an excellent season as a full-time reliever for the Royals, but he returned to a starting role in 2018 and posted a 4.18 ERA/4.43 FIP with 7.57 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 over 157 innings (28 starts). Minor has an affordable $19MM left on his contract, though his 10-team no-trade clause could block some prospective suitors from acquiring him.
  • After a drawn-out search, the Orioles finally named a general manager, Mike Elias, whom they hired Friday. Elias is now seeking a manager for the Orioles, and it’s “more likely” he’ll hire an experienced skipper than a neophyte, Rosenthal relays. However, Elias isn’t necessarily aiming to make a high-profile hire, per Rosenthal, who writes that the O’s next manager could be a “caretaker.”

NL Notes: Braves, Kimbrel, Dodgers, Jansen, Reds

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A few items from the National League…

  • Atlanta’s a speculative landing spot for closer Craig Kimbrel, who starred with the Braves from 2010-14 and is now the most proven reliever available in free agency. However, barring a drop in Kimbrel’s asking price, it’s “highly unlikely” he’ll rejoin the Braves this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes. MLBTR predicts the 30-year-old Kimbrel will reel in a whopping $70MM guarantee, which could be too much for an Atlanta team that may not be in position to make a big-money splash this offseason, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month. Anthopoulos has made it known the Braves are interested in adding a closer this winter, though, so whether it’s Kimbrel or someone else, it appears the club is primed to bring in some late-game help.
  • Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen announced Friday that he’ll undergo heart surgery Nov. 26, per Chad Thornburg of MLB.com. The procedure comes with a two- to eight-week recovery timeline, meaning Jansen should be fine by spring training. It’ll be the second heart surgery since 2012 for Jansen, who missed time with an irregular heartbeat that season and during both the 2011 and ’18 campaigns. The 31-year-old has been particularly susceptible to an irregular heartbeat at high altitude – the issue cropped up in Colorado in 2012, and he was hospitalized after a game at Coors Field last August. As a result, Jansen sat out a road series against the Rockies in September on doctors’ recommendation.
  • The Reds have hired J.R. House to serve as their third base coach and catching coach, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. The 39-year-old House will replace Billy Hatcher, who had been the Reds’ third base coach, and ex-catching coach Mike Stefanski, though it’s not yet known if those two will stay in the organization in different roles, per Sheldon. House, a former professional catcher and first basemen, spent the past seven seasons in player development with the Diamondbacks. He’s the third new hire for rookie manager David Bell, who previously tabbed Derek Johnson as the Reds’ pitching coach and Turner Ward as their hitting coach.

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